The main and fundamental result of the 2022-2026 war was that Ukraine retained its statehood, governability and basic institutional integrity. Despite large-scale destruction, colossal military and economic losses, the country remained a fully functioning state with relative political stability, albeit in a negative trend, with uncertain prospects, high military-political and social tensio
The Geneva round of talks, as expected, failed to produce a tangible breakthrough in the peace process. The parties limited themselves to confirming their readiness to continue dialogue, which is generally a positive sign, but there was no convergence of positions on key strategic issues. Discussions were primarily technical.
The Munich Security Conference, once a theater of transatlantic resolve, has morphed into a session of "black magic" where the audience is asked to believe in illusions while the stagehands whisper about bankruptcy. As European elites discuss "ironclad" security guarantees for Ukraine, a chilling reality is emerging from the backrooms of Berlin and Brussels: the European "locomotive" is not just slowing down; it has run out of coal.
The Empty Arsenal of Democracy
At the start of the new round of talks in Abu Dhabi (February 4-5, 2026), the most problematic issues for reaching a peace agreement on Ukraine remain: territorial issues (the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region) and security guarantees for Ukraine. The current diplomatic configuration demonstrates that each side is currently pursuing its own vision of peace, seeking an agreement that will be perceived as a victory.
Ukrainian Institute of Politics
HIGHLIGHTS OF 2025 FOR UKRAINE:
WAR, POLITICS, PUBLIC OPINION, ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL SITUATION;
SOCIAL AND POLITICAL TRANSFORMATIONS
Introduction. Key trends for 2025.
Geopolitics and negotiations around Ukraine.
Perspective – Written by Ruslan Bortnik
The full analysis is available here.
