US President Donald Trump's attempts to reach a diplomatic settlement of the war in Ukraine have not yet led to significant results due to the irreconcilable positions of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Against this background, the President of the United States is trying to exert pressure on both the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin and the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky.
After the agreements reached in Saudi Arabia with the mediation of the United States on March 25, 2025, Ukraine and Russia regularly accuse each other of violating the energy truce, both sides passed information about this to the United States.
Recall that following the talks in Saudi Arabia, the parties named different terms and mechanisms for stopping strikes on the energy sector. V. Zelensky said that the moratorium came into effect on March 25. And Russia said that, in its opinion, the moratorium has been in effect since March 18 (since the conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin). And it will be valid until April 18.
Contradictions in the positions of the United States and the Russian Federation are beginning to manifest themselves publicly. On the agenda of the negotiations, the deal on the Black Sea trade may fail. In Riyadh, Moscow put forward a number of demands, in fact, ultimatums, without the fulfillment of which it refuses to agree on the Black Sea agreement. Among them are the return of access to SWIFT, the lifting of sanctions from banks, insurance companies, ships, fleets and other key institutions. Moscow actually undermined D. Trump's attempt to get a quick and bright PR victory. A possible agreement was discussed "in the most general terms" and "work is underway," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister S. Ryabkov. Moscow expects the assistance of the administration of US President Donald Trump in this matter.
These demands are practically no different from those that Russia voiced back in the administration of former US President D. Biden.
Earlier, the United States confirmed that it was considering this requirement. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that the unblocking of SWIFT is possible only with the participation of the European Union, since the decision requires the consent of all EU member states. In addition, the participation of the UK is needed to remove restrictions related to marine insurance, given its significant influence in this market.
The European Union, however, has repeatedly stated its unwillingness to ease sanctions against Russia at least until July, when their current term expires and the issue of their extension will be discussed. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that sanctions should remain in place until sustainable peace is achieved in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also expressed concern, calling the possible lifting of sanctions a "disaster."
It is currently unknown whether US President Donald Trump intends to put pressure on European allies to partially lift sanctions. If such efforts are undertaken and successful, it could set a precedent for a broader deal to cease fire and end the war in Ukraine.
But so far, the White House has shown general dissatisfaction with the development of the situation around the settlement of the war in Ukraine. US President Donald Trump was counting on a quick victory: that Russia and Ukraine would come to an agreement under his pressure, and he would be able to use this as a foreign policy PR victory for his domestic audience. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said at a briefing on March 31, 2025 that US President Donald Trump had expressed disappointment with the leaders of both sides of the conflict - Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
US President Donald Trump also made it clear that he does not share the ideas of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the introduction of a UN interim administration in Ukraine.
Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin toughened the rhetoric against Ukraine, declaring illegitimate not only President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, but also the entire system of Ukrainian power. He proposed to discuss the possibility of introducing temporary international governance in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN with the participation of the United States, European countries and Russian partners in order to hold democratic elections and form a government that will be trusted by the people.
After that, the representative of the National Security Council of the White House, who was asked about V. Putin's statements about the interim administration in Ukraine, replied that governance in Ukraine is determined by its Constitution. On the part of Ukraine, the response was in a more rude form. Adviser to the President of Ukraine on communications Dmytro Lytvyn wrote on the social network X (former Twitter) that V. Putin should "take pills to start brain activity."
The proposals of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin on the introduction of an interim UN administration in Ukraine have caused particular irritation among the US President D. Trump. There is a feeling that the United States has offered Russia an informal deal: to recognize certain "logical" (not legal) rights to the occupied five regions of Ukraine (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions). In return, the rest of the territory of Ukraine remains under the control of the United States. minerals and infrastructure, undertakes to pay certain deductions and interact with external partners exclusively through Washington.
Resources are actually divided in half. But Putin, apparently, is not ready for such a "compromise". He needs Odessa, Nikolaev, a land bridge to Transnistria. This makes it possible to influence Moldova and strengthen its position in the region.
Therefore, Putin put forward an alternative concept - international governance of Ukraine under the auspices of the UN. Within the framework of this model, it is planned to create a kind of joint "joint-stock company" with the participation of Russia, the United States, Europe, China and other players who will jointly govern Ukraine. This is perceived in the United States as an encroachment on their exclusive zone of influence in Ukraine.
During a telephone interview with NBC News, U.S. President Donald Trump said that if he decides that Russia is to blame for destabilizing the situation and disrupting the peace agreement on Ukraine, he will impose secondary tariffs on all oil coming from Russia. This means that any country that buys Russian oil will not be able to do business in the United States. A tariff of 25 to 50% will also be imposed on all oil from the Russian Federation. that tariffs on Russia would be imposed within a month without a ceasefire agreement. Later, speaking to reporters on board his plane, Donald Trump said that he trusted the Russian president and believed that he would do the right thing and conclude a peace agreement. "I don't think he will go back on his word. You are talking about Putin. I don't think he'll go back on his word. I've known him for a long time. We've always gotten along well," Trump said.
Yesterday, Fox News journalist Jackie Heinrich said on social network X that the White House is considering applying tough sanctions against Russia, including the "shadow fleet", as US President Donald Trump believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is delaying peace talks. So far, such threats from Trump are transmitted through the media, which may indicate a desire to leave space for negotiations and not completely spoil relations with Russia.
At this stage, all parties to the negotiations have reached a "symbolic crossroads", where it is necessary to make specific decisions that will change the entire paradigm of interaction. Either the Russian Federation must abandon part of its demands, or US President Donald Trump will begin to partially lift sanctions against the Russian Federation, fulfilling its demands, which was previously considered absolutely unacceptable. Otherwise, the negotiation process will freeze, and the military escalation will intensify.
There is also a possibility that D. Trump will choose the strategy of "washing his hands" (which the Russian Federation is counting on), leaving Europe to deal with the Ukrainian issue on its own. If the negotiations between the United States and Russia on Ukraine reach an impasse, and other topics are advancing in parallel, such as strategic stability, rare earth metals, etc., Ukraine may find itself on the periphery of interests. In this case, the United States may switch to a purely commercial approach: selling weapons and providing intelligence without strategic support, which could lead to the transformation of Ukraine into an analogue of Egypt – a country buying weapons if funds are available.
Overall, the situation remains tense as peace talks do not lead to a de-escalation of the war and fighting in Ukraine continues.
The topic of the resource agreement with the United States on the use of Ukraine's natural resources, previously suspended after the conflict between Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump in the White House, returned to the agenda.
People's Deputy of Ukraine Yaroslav Zheleznyak said that he had familiarized himself with the 58-page draft agreement received from sources in the Ukrainian government. According to him, the document proposed by the United States "is not in our favor."
Zheleznyak noted that the agreement covers all minerals of Ukraine, including oil and gas, both at new and already developed fields. The management of the fund, according to the project, will be carried out by five members, three of whom represent the United States and have full veto power.
According to the project, both state and private companies can engage in mining, and the funds received will be converted into foreign currency and withdrawn abroad. In case of non-compliance with any conditions by Ukraine, additional payments are provided. The US contribution includes previously provided assistance from 2022, and they are entitled to be the first to receive "royalties" from the fund in the amount of 4%, after which the proceeds go to Ukraine.
The agreement is indefinite, and changes or termination are possible only with the consent of the American side. The United States receives the "right of the first night" on all new infrastructure projects and the right to veto the sale of resources to other countries. The document does not contain any security guarantees for Ukraine.
The new draft agreement gives the U.S. full control over major investments in Ukraine's infrastructure and mineral resources. The Trump administration is demanding a "right of first offer" for investments in projects related to roads, railways, ports, mines, oil and gas, and critical minerals, expanding U.S. economic influence in Ukraine.
The agreement also provides for the creation of a special "reconstruction fund" controlled by the United States, to which the Ukrainian government is obliged to transfer 50% of the proceeds from all new projects. The United States is entitled to all profits plus 4% per annum until the full return on its investment, the amount of which is not specified.
According to the project, the United States considers all assistance provided to Ukraine after the start of a full-scale war as its contribution to the fund. This means that Ukraine must reimburse all military and economic support provided to the United States since 2022 before receiving any proceeds from the fund.
The website of the Kiel Institute, which calculates aid to Ukraine, indicates that as of December 31, 2024, the volume of US aid to Ukraine amounted to 114.2 billion euros. In dollars, this is at least 120 billion, while US President Donald Trump names different amounts that range from $300-500 billion.
In general, the proposed version of the agreement gives the United States the right to dispose of all the subsoil of Ukraine with the possibility of withdrawing the proceeds abroad, while Ukraine practically does not participate in decision-making. The document does not contain guarantees of arms supplies or investment commitments from the United States.
It is expected that the Ukrainian side will try to revise the terms of the agreement. However, the very fact of the appearance of such a document could have serious consequences for Ukraine and for President Zelensky personally.
First, refusal to sign the agreement or attempts to delay the process could lead to the suspension of arms and intelligence supplies from the United States, as well as to the intensification of negotiations between Washington and Moscow without taking into account the interests of Kyiv. This will weaken Zelensky's position in possible agreements to end the war.
Secondly, agreement to sign such an agreement could cause a large-scale political crisis in Ukraine, starting with the Verkhovna Rada, which may refuse to ratify the document. Even in the case of informal agreements with factions, the transfer of control over Ukrainian subsoil to the United States could undermine public confidence in Zelensky and complicate his political prospects.
US President Donald Trump said that President of Ukraine V. Zelensky wants to abandon the subsoil deal and promised him "big problems" in this case. "He's trying to get out of the rare earth deal, and if he does, he's going to have problems, big, big problems," Trump told reporters. Trump also said that Ukraine wants to include a clause on NATO membership in the subsoil agreement and opposed it.
In general, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky continues to criticize the draft of a new subsoil deal proposed by the Americans. He said that there were details that the parties had previously rejected. Earlier, he also said that he does not recognize US military assistance as a debt, which is de facto written in the draft agreement. It is reported that Ukraine and the United States on Friday held the first discussion of the new American proposal on subsoil resources. agreement is a US commitment to invest in Ukraine as part of the deal. But D. Trump believes that their investments are already assistance provided to Ukraine since 2022. After this conversation, Donald Trump threatened Vladimir Zelensky with "big problems" if he delays the signing of the deal.
These problems may be a new cessation of military aid, anti-corruption investigations and audits, a bet on the Ukrainian opposition, or direct agreements with the Russian Federation regarding Ukraine.
Holding elections in Ukraine.
The British edition of The Economist reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky instructed his team to prepare for elections after a complete ceasefire. According to the publication, the elections are scheduled to be held in early July. But the Office of the President of Ukraine reported that the article contained inaccurate information. In particular, the fact that Zelensky did not hold a meeting on the elections in July, which is mentioned in the article. Our numerous sources also confirm that the authorities have no plans to hold elections, although part of the President's entourage omits such a scenario.
The head of the Central Election Commission of Ukraine, Oleg Didenko, said that the preparation of the post-war elections will require more time than provided for by the current legislation. According to him, due to the consequences of a full-scale war, it is necessary to adjust the procedures for holding elections, both in society and among politicians there is a consensus on the need to increase the preparation period.According to the current norms, after the end of martial law, the Central Election Commission must announce parliamentary elections within a month, which will be held in 60 days, and presidential elections in 90 days. However, O. Didenko stressed that this time is not enough to ensure democracy and compliance with standards.
He also noted that it is necessary to adopt a law on the peculiarities of holding post-war elections, which will determine specific terms and procedures. Issues that need to be resolved include voting in the de-occupied territories, abroad, ensuring security and restoring electoral infrastructure.
Elections in Ukraine can rather be initiated not by internal processes, but under pressure from the outside. If the administration of US President Donald Trump (or his entourage) declares that it is ready to make deals only with the "renewed" government, the Parliament may be forced to unblock the issue of elections. At the same time, elections will become inevitable no earlier than mid-autumn.
There are other possible scenarios - for example, a political or military crisis, which both Zelensky and representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine previously spoke about. Spring and summer are traditional times of activity at the front, and escalation can have political consequences.
Martial law is in effect in Ukraine until May 9, 2025, after which the Verkhovna Rada must extend it. However, it can already be expected that the vote itself, at the very least, will be accompanied by a serious internal political conflict. The extension of martial law will depend not only on the internal situation, but also on the course of negotiations, as well as on the nature of relations between President of Ukraine V. Zelensky and US President D. Trump. find themselves at a crisis point, the extension of martial law may be in question. If the United States decides that the team of the current President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky demands too much in the current conditions of negotiations, it is possible that the extension of martial law will be blocked. If martial law is not extended, this will be a marker that elections may soon be held in Ukraine.
The team of President V. Zelensky fears that the elections in the current conditions can cause significant harm and reduce the degree of their power - lead to destabilization, internal conflicts and interference of external forces. In the context of the elections, not only Moscow and Washington, but also London and Brussels will become more active. Moreover, the authorities understand that even with Zelensky's high chances of retaining the presidency, everything is much more complicated with the parliamentary elections.
Fighting.
According to the DeepState website, the pace of progress of the Russian Federation in March 2025 was one of the highest and amounted to 463 sq.km. Thus, in a month, Russian troops captured 136 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. The Russian Federation also regained more than 327 square kilometers in the Kursk region.
Over the past week, Russian troops have captured about 30 more square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and now control 112,482 thousand square kilometers.
In recent days, the Russians have advanced near the border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
South of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Russian troops are advancing near the village of Preobrazhenka.
Southwest of the city of Kurakhove (Donetsk region), Russian troops captured the village of Razliv. To the north, Russian troops from the village of Andriivka are trying to break through to the Kurakhove-Zaporozhye highway, as well as to the village of Alekseevka and go through the Volcha River west of the village of Konstantinopol to the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Which creates a threat of encirclement, which Ukrainian troops may fall into due to a breakthrough near the village of Razliv in the settlement of Konstantinopol and near the settlement of Andreevka.
Southwest of New York (Donetsk region), Russian troops continued to advance in the village of Panteleymonovka.
In the Bakhmut direction , fighting is underway in the village of Chasov Yar (Shevchenko microdistrict), and in the direction of Stupki. Also, the RF Armed Forces are hitting the strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Chasov Yar, trying to squeeze Ukrainian forces out of the city.
A possible collapse of the front in the area of the city of Chasov Yar and the city of Toretsk will endanger the urban agglomeration of the city of Slavyansk - the city of Konstantinovka.
In the Donetsk region, the situation continues to deteriorate in the city of Toretsk, according to the military, the city may be completely lost in the near future, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine still control certain areas of the city of Toretsk.
In the Kupyansk direction (in the Kharkiv region), Russian troops are advancing north of the city of Kupyansk near the village of Kondrashovka, trying to break through to the Kupyansk-Veliky Burluk highway.
In the Lyman direction in the Donetsk region, the Russian army is advancing near the village of Katerynivka and towards the settlement of Novy (the vector of movement is to the northwest, towards the Oskol River and the settlement of Borovaya).
In the south of the Donetsk region, north of Velyka Novosilka, Russian troops have advanced to the village of Vesele and are trying to bypass it from the eastern flank. This is a movement towards the highway to Zaporizhzhia, which is about 5 kilometers away.
The bridgehead in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region has been reduced to - 69 sq. km. of territory. Recall that over the past week, Ukraine lost about 60 square kilometers.
In the Kursk region , Russian troops entered the Sudzha checkpoint near the border with Ukraine, the settlement of Gogolevka - partly under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, partly in the gray zone.
Map of hostilities.
Donetsk region.
Kursk region.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
