Regarding the appeal of the State Duma of the Russian Federation to President V. Putin with a request to recognize the independence of the self-proclaimed "DPR" and LPR". Thach decision State Duma approved 15-th February
• It is noteworthy that the State Duma voted in favor of an appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a request to consider the need to recognize the self-proclaimed "DPR" and "LPR", choosing not the "United Russia" option, but the tougher project of the Communist Party submitted the day before.
• The "United Russia" variant provided that the appeal would not be sent directly to V. Putin - it was planned to be sent for additional consultations to the Russian Foreign Ministry. Although, according to Russian law, the President of the Russian Federation must still hold consultations with the Foreign Ministry, the role of the Presidential Administration is also important.
It is important that the Appeal was adopted after a meeting of Normandy Four advisers in Berlin and after a series of meetings and consultations in the "star" - USA-Ukraine-FRG-France-RF.
• In any case, this means that the negotiations have not yielded results and Russia is raising the stakes, going on a new wave of political escalation.
First of all, it is an instrument of blackmail and pressure on Ukraine and Western partners.
The Russian side is trying to demonstrate what will happen if, as part of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, Ukraine does not agree to the autonomy of Donbass. Then there will be recognition of part of the Donbass as independent countries with the risk of war for the rest of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine.
• Recognition of the "LDNR" from the Ukrainian point of view is not a legal act, and will mean a new round of sanctions and the accusation of the Russian Federation of withdrawing from the Minsk agreements.
• But the problem is that there is no entry and exit procedure in the Minsk agreements. And no matter what the parties do, no matter how they violate the Agreements, until they formally declare that they will not fulfil with the Minsk agreements and withdraw from them, it is believed that the participants continue to remain in the Minsk format. Therefore, "Europe" speaks of "violation" and "political catastrophe".
• And even the recognition of "LDNR" can be accepted by the Russian side under the pretext "for a time before the implementation of the Minsk agreements."
• But, besides the instrument of pressure, the recognition of the "LDNR" has another motivation.
Firstly, it will legalize the economic trade between Donbass and Russia completely within the framework of the Russian economy, and simplify exports.
• Secondly, a subject will appear to which Russia will be able to transfer its latest weapons, on whose territory it is already possible to formally create military bases. After all, today the Russian Federation, even from a pseudo-legal point of view, has no one to transfer the air defense system, missile weapons and aviation - there is no subject to receive - since the authorities of the self-proclaimed republics were not formally recognized.
• Russia raises the stakes and this is one of the last Russian bets on the verge of a foul over Ukraine. The situation once again demonstrates how close the parties have come to the conflict today due to the exhaustion of diplomatic tools.
Ruslan Bortnik
