This week we observed a series of developments that collectively deliver a significant information and political blow to the position of the President of Ukraine.

Apparently, at the international level, an implicit consensus is forming around Ukraine in favor of continuing the war at least in the medium term — on a horizon of up to two years. The negotiation process has effectively been put on pause: substantive decisions have been postponed, at least until autumn — the period of the U.S. congressional elections.

Germany and France offer Ukraine  an interim status on the way to EU membership, which involves gradual integration without a full set of rights.

Базова стратегія України до осені 2026 року — режим «фортеці в облозі».

In the spring of 2026, the confrontation between the United States and Iran reached its peak. After the February strikes, the military crisis intensified by April, when the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, global logistics became extremely complicated, oil prices rose, and the United States declared its readiness to strike Iranian infrastructure and “destroy an entire civilization.”

The negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine remains limitedly effective and has so far yielded results only in matters of humanitarian exchanges between the parties. The trilateral format of the United States-Ukraine-Russia has not yet been resumed after its postponement due to the Middle East crisis: at this stage, bilateral contacts between Washington and Kiev and Washington with Moscow continue.

Introduction