Over the week, the situation for Ukrainian troops on the Donetsk front continued to worsen. The crisis for the Armed Forces of Ukraine around the cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk intensified. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation advanced toward the town of Lysychansk from the south after capturing the settlement.

From the point of view of the first 100 days of the war, the tactical advantage remained with Ukraine and its partners. Russia was unable to use the effect of surprise and the most prepared part of its army to achieve a quick surrender of Ukraine. But the strategically Ukrainian state, economy and armed forces suffered a lot of damage, which will definitely have a negative impact on Ukrainian opportunities in the future.

The worsening situation in the Donbas, the decision to provide Ukraine with long-range missile systems, and negative signals about granting Ukraine the status of a “candidate” for EU membership.

In general, the situation for the Ukrainian troops on the Donetsk front has deteriorated significantly over the week, and the formation of an operational crisis is possible.

During the week, the main military activity was concentrated in the Lugansk and Donetsk directions. The intensity of hostilities and the concentration of troops decreased. There is a transition of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the tactics of operating in small groups (platoon, company character), greater involvement of PMCs, special forces, and units of the “DLNR,” and saving resources.

The situation in Ukraine:

From April 1 to May 2, 2022

Key trends: