From the point of view of the first 100 days of the war, the tactical advantage remained with Ukraine and its partners. Russia was unable to use the effect of surprise and the most prepared part of its army to achieve a quick surrender of Ukraine. But the strategically Ukrainian state, economy and armed forces suffered a lot of damage, which will definitely have a negative impact on Ukrainian opportunities in the future.
The worsening situation in the Donbas, the decision to provide Ukraine with long-range missile systems, and negative signals about granting Ukraine the status of a “candidate” for EU membership.
Eric Gozlan, a French-Israeli political consultant who worked with the Vatican, in an interview with Ruslan Bortnik, said that the Vatican is not preparing for the Global Peace Conference on Ukraine (https://youtu.be/AjesNTa59Vs?t=2406), which was previously announced by Pope Francis. There is also no plan or date for it yet, and the Pope no longer insists on holding it. This is only the idea of the Pope himself, who is lonely even in Rome.
In general, the situation for the Ukrainian troops on the Donetsk front has deteriorated significantly over the week, and the formation of an operational crisis is possible.
During the week, the main military activity was concentrated in the Lugansk and Donetsk directions. The intensity of hostilities and the concentration of troops decreased. There is a transition of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to the tactics of operating in small groups (platoon, company character), greater involvement of PMCs, special forces, and units of the “DLNR,” and saving resources.
The situation in Ukraine:
From April 1 to May 2, 2022
Key trends:
🔹In terms of the number of countries whose resources are somehow involved in the war in Ukraine, the situation is already approaching a world war:
1) At a meeting in German Ramstein at a US military base, a new anti-Russian coalition was actually formed - more than 40 countries have already agreed to coordinate military assistance to Ukraine to repel Russian aggression. For example, 38 countries took part in the First World War, 62 participated in the Second World War;
2) 4 out of 5 global states and associations are already involved in the war (USA, RF, EU, NATO);
Director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Руслан Бортник rated results of Ukrainian-Russian conversions in Istanbul.
On March 29, in Turkey, there was a negotiation between the Ukrainian and the Russian delegation on the opening of the river.
The results of the discussion suggest a long -term optimization. It seems to me that the propositions are highly commendable.
Negotiators consistently state that one of the most difficult issues to discuss remains the status of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (Crimea) and the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts of Ukraine (Russian called “LDNR”). Indeed, issues of territorial integrity and sovereignty are "red lines" for any state leader. Even discussing them can often be qualified as a serious criminal offence.
