Following two years of full-scale war with the Russian Federation within the framework of the forum "Ukraine. The year 2024" President of Ukraine V. Zelensky held a large press conference. Taking place against the backdrop of hostilities, a large-scale press conference in Kyiv, despite the possible threat of Russian attacks, demonstrated to the world community the security of the capital and the lack of fear among the country's leadership.
The President expressed his intention to combat the spreading pessimism in political circles and among the media, especially Western ones, by seeking to change the negative narrative. It was emphasized that the situation is under control, and anti-crisis measures on critical issues (such as Western support, losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and territorial losses) are being actively implemented.
The society was presented with an updated composition of the government team compared to the two previous years, including a new military command and leadership of law enforcement agencies. Speeches by prominent members of the new team preceded the President's address to emphasize its unity.
During the press conference, the President tried to demonstrate a certain confidence. But at the same time, there were phrases that the outcome of the war could be decided negatively and very quickly within a month if Ukraine does not receive the necessary assistance since the Russian Federation is planning a new offensive after the elections.
Among the most important statements of President V. Zelensky, the following can be noted:
The President shifted responsibility for the course of the war to his Western partners.
V. Zelensky made it clear that he believes in the victory of Ukraine but is subject to Western countries providing the necessary weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (shells, air defense systems, etc.) - "Give us weapons, and we will win!"
Also, V. Zelensky actively shifted the blame for the failure of the summer offensive to Western countries (“they did not deliver the promised weapons”) and the generals (“plans for a Ukrainian counteroffensive were on the Kremlin’s table”).
The President, quite often during the press conference, returned to the topic of weapons shortages.
Western expert circles believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will exhaust their reserves of shells by June of this year. Therefore, allied countries are urgently looking for options on where to find ammunition for Ukraine. Recently, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, called on EU countries to increase and speed up assistance to Ukraine. Otherwise, the result of the war in Ukraine “could come in the coming months, and V. Putin could win.” "The situation is so dynamic that at the moment, 50% of obligations are not fulfilled on time, which means that we are losing people and territories," said Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
Ukraine has tripled its arms production over the past year, with more than 500 companies operating in the domestic defense sector. Still, the needs of Ukrainian forces are so great that even the defense enterprises of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine combined cannot cover them, as stated by the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Alexander Kamyshin.
All this may indicate that the situation with many types of weapons in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is now really close to critical.
V. Zelensky also tried to fend off questions about mobilization, actually replacing them with the army audit process.
Due to significant internal and external information and political pressure, for the first time during the war years, the number of dead Ukrainian military personnel was officially announced - 31 thousand people. But this figure is most likely not complete since it includes either the number of people (families) to whom insurance compensation was paid (based on the death of relatives and friends), or it does not include security forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, SBU, volunteers, foreign volunteers. Also, many more dead are not officially recognized as such and are listed as missing. And since not all families who apply for it received compensation for the deceased in Ukraine (a very complex, lengthy, and corrupt mechanism), the state statistics of "registered" victims may differ significantly from reality.
At the same time, the President refused to give figures on the wounded and missing. This figure is highly different from all previously published data from Western partners and Ukrainian government representatives.
So, in August 2023. The New York Times, citing US officials, wrote that estimating the number of losses is difficult since the Russian Federation underestimates them, and Ukraine does not disclose them. However, according to their data, Russian military casualties were close to 300,000. This number includes about 120,000 dead and 170,000–180,000 wounded. Ukraine has lost approximately 70,000 soldiers and has 100,000–120,000 wounded. Earlier, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities several times announced the number of losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In April 2022, V. Zelensky, in an interview with CNN, named the number of Ukrainian military deaths as 2.5-3 thousand people. In August 2022 year, the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, said that during the six months of the conflict, Ukraine lost 9 thousand military personnel. In December 2022 year, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhailo Podolyak, spoke about 13 thousand dead Ukrainian military personnel. After this, Ukraine refrained from making official estimates of losses.
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V. Zelensky also actually described the Ukrainian model for negotiations. So, the President said that the "grain deal" principle could also serve as a model for future negotiations with the Russian Federation. But first, V. Zelensky sets as a condition - support for his “Peace Formula” and forming a political coalition around the Ukrainian approach. So Ukraine will finalize the peace plan based on V. Zelensky's "Formula of Peace" and will hold a prominent summit of the peace plan at the level of state leaders, which must approve this plan and transfer it to the Russian Federation (they may or may not accept this plan), according to the head of the Office of the President A. Ermak, more than 160 countries will be invited to the global "peace summit," which will be held in Switzerland (tentatively in the summer) at the level of leaders - an invitation from the Russian Federation is not expected at this stage. After the first meeting, a particular amount of time will be allocated to prepare a joint, formula-based plan for the responsible countries of the world. Today, they are developing a document that could result from this meeting. A. Ermak said that after developing a plan for restoring peace in Ukraine, it would be possible to invite Russia to the second summit of the peace formula and present it to the Russian side without intermediaries.
At the same time, V. Zelensky said he does not want another peace initiative to appear in the West, which he considers a significant threat.
Regarding Western assistance, V. Zelensky said he has "positive" expectations. But he warned that Ukraine needs money from the United States, which was blocked by Congress, in a month at the latest. Due to delays in aid, Ukraine now has to spend its funds to purchase weapons and finance the economy. In January 2024, foreign funding to Ukraine was the lowest since the beginning of the war ($390 million, with an average budget of $3-4 billion per month in 2023). In February, Japan promised to provide financial assistance to Ukraine worth $12.1 billion. According to the Government, the $4.7 billion grant should arrive by the end of this month. Let us remind you that to cover Ukraine's budget deficit, according to the Ministry of Finance, up to 37.3 billion dollars are needed in foreign aid this year.
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Now, the US Presidential Administration continues to make efforts to unblock the aid package for Ukraine and Israel. US President D. Biden met with leaders of Congress and other allies to again try to convince them to assist Ukraine (about $60 billion out of a total package totaling $95 billion) and prevent a shutdown, which could come as early as March 1, when the temporary budget expires. The White House wants the House of Representatives to approve the corresponding bill passed by the Senate. The Western press notes that the confrontation over aid to Ukraine and Israel could even cost the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives M. Johnson, who, probably under the influence of ex-President D. Trump, previously refused to put this law to a vote. In general, the aid package to Ukraine and Israel now acts as an instrument of political confrontation between Democrats and Republicans. The situation will depend on whether the parties can come to some compromise. Funding for Ukraine will be allocated until June 2024. Still, if the election struggle between the teams of D. Biden and D. Trump takes more radical forms, then the aid package for Ukraine may "hang up" in Congress until the presidential elections in November 2024.
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The US has expressed fears that Ukraine could face a “catastrophic” arms shortage and the collapse of its air defense system “in the coming weeks” if it does not receive additional support.
However, significant disagreements continue to exist within NATO countries regarding the issue of providing Ukraine with the necessary weapons, including Western long-range missiles. Thus, in Germany, the Bundestag decided against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which could radically change the situation at the front.
Due to an acute shortage of ammunition, personnel, and funding, Ukraine's position at the front is beginning to cause increasing concern in Europe, which is partly due to reports that the Russian military is preparing for a new offensive in the spring or early summer of this year, to take advantage of the growing problems supply of Ukraine.
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In particular, possible behind-the-scenes discussions between NATO and EU leaders regarding the possibility of the presence of Western troops in Ukraine were publicly announced. During the EU summit on Ukraine on February 27 in Paris, where the option of purchasing shells from third countries was also discussed, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out. However, there has yet to be a consensus on this
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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico also voiced the question of sending Western troops shortly before the summit.
The Kremlin responded to this initiative with further threats; Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that a direct conflict with NATO would become "inevitable" if Western countries sent troops to Ukraine.
However, E. Macron's proposal to send military personnel to Ukraine was quickly rejected by other allies, particularly Germany.
Since the beginning of the war, NATO countries have repeatedly stated that the Alliance's first goal is to prevent a third world war, so it will not directly participate in the fighting in Ukraine. Still, there is a danger that the war will affect other European countries.
Recently, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the West must be prepared for a “ten-year confrontation” with Russia. He said that if Putin wins in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that Russian aggression will not spread to other countries.
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Currently, after the capture of the city of Avdeevka in the Donetsk region on February 17, the military initiative continues to be in the hands of the Russian Army, which has already captured villages around the city of Avdeevka and has advanced further to the West by an average of 5 kilometers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been able to stop this advance.
So, at the front, after the Ukrainian Armed Forces left the city of Avdeevka (Donetsk region), the Russian Armed Forces captured the village. Lastochkino, located on the main road from Avdiivka to the village of Orlivka, was also captured by the village. Northern (south of Lastochkino). To the West of Bakhmut, the Russian Federation is trying to capture the settlement. Ivanivske is moving towards the town of Chasiv Yar.
Russian troops are also trying to advance towards the city of Kurakhovo from the side previously captured by the town of Maryinka (an offensive is underway from the south against units of Ukrainian troops in the village. Georgievka). Also, the Russian Federation is preparing an attack on the city of Ugledar from the north, and Ukrainian troops there risk being “caught in pincers.”
The fighting on the Zaporizhzhia front has intensified, and the Russian Armed Forces continue to try to capture the village. Rabotino will also advance in the direction of Gulyaypole.
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Currently, the problematic situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also directly related to the lack of ammunition and personnel (which was recently admitted by the head of military intelligence Kirill Budanov); approximately the RF Armed Forces at the front are 1.5-2 times larger in number than the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Although the President of Ukraine previously spoke about a 7-fold advantage.
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In Ukraine, the number of citizens who believe it necessary to look for a diplomatic way to end the war is growing. According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), with confidence in Victory, Ukrainians remain open to the negotiation process. In May 2022, 59%, and in February 2024, 72% believed that Ukraine should look for a diplomatic way to end the war (however, the question's wording was simply about such a process and not concessions).
The number of citizens who believe that the West is tired of Ukraine has grown by almost a third since the start of the war. According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), more believe that the West continues to support Ukraine to the best of its ability – 49%. Still, this figure has decreased from 76% at the end of 2022. 44% believe that the West is tired of Ukraine, its support is weak, and that the West would like concessions from Ukraine to Russia. At the end of 2022, only 15% thought so.
The growing belief that the West is ready to leave Ukraine is a negative trend and may lead to a decreased faith in victory.
According to another survey by the Sociological Group Rating, in February 2024, 85% of citizens believed that Ukraine would win the war with the Russian Federation. But only 19% believe (versus 79%) that they can win without the help of Western countries.
Polish farmers have resumed protests on the Ukrainian border. They oppose food imports from Ukraine, arguing that it undermines their competitiveness.
Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine - Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine A. Kubrakov said that in 2023, almost 27 million tons of cargo, 70% of which were agricultural products. According to him, in January 2024. The export of farm products occurred mainly through maritime transport and amounted to 6.7 million tons.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in January 2024. Ukraine exported 6.3 million tons of agricultural products. Of these, most were exported through ports - 5.4 million tons (87%); by rail - 0.68 million tons (11%); motor transport - 0.13 million tons (2%).
A. Kubrakov reported that only 0.37 million tons of agricultural products transited through Poland, about 5% of the total volume.
In 2022, we exported up to 1 million tons of agricultural products per month through Poland. Now, three times fewer agricultural exports pass through Poland than in 2022. At the same time, Ukraine currently exports only 2% of its agricultural products by road transport.
This indicates that the statements of Polish agricultural associations regarding the oversaturation of their market with Ukrainian products are only partially factual.
In January 2024, Ukraine exported goods by sea for $1.9 billion, 11% more than in December 2023. In total, goods worth $3.4 billion were exported in January, 6.9% more than in December 2023.
In particular, Ukraine has rapidly increased its iron ore exports, mainly due to the expansion of the sea corridor. So, in January 2024, Ukraine exported more than 3 million tons of iron ore. This is 90% more than in previous months.
Combat map.
Internal situation in the country.
Press conference of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky at the forum “Ukraine. The year 2024."
On Sunday, February 25, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky held a large press conference on the results of two years of full-scale war with the Russian Federation as part of the “Ukraine. The year is 2024."
The President set himself several tasks:
- presentation of the team and its updated composition compared to two years ago. New military leadership and leadership of law enforcement agencies, etc. It was necessary to demonstrate that this team is united.
- a demonstration of the absence of fear since the press conference itself took place in a combat zone and, taking into account Russian weapons, could have become a target for attack (but did not).
- the fight against pessimism, as the President directly said.
- demonstrating that the situation is under control.
The most critical statements include:
The number of dead Ukrainian military personnel was announced - 31 thousand people. But this figure is most likely not complete. Since it either includes the number of people who were paid insurance compensation or does not include the security forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, SBU, volunteers, or foreign volunteers. Also, many more dead are not officially recognized as such and are listed as missing. Not all families who apply for it receive compensation for the deceased in Ukraine.
The President refused to give figures on the wounded and missing.
This figure differs significantly from all previously published data from Western partners and Ukrainian authorities' representatives.
So, in August 2023. The New York Times, citing US officials, wrote that estimating the number of losses is difficult since the Russian Federation underestimates them and Ukraine does not disclose them.
However, according to their data, Russian military casualties were close to 300,000. This number includes about 120,000 dead and 170,000–180,000 wounded.
Ukraine has lost about 70,000 soldiers and has 100,000–120,000 wounded.
Several times, representatives of the Ukrainian authorities announced the number of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In April 2022, V. Zelensky, in an interview with CNN, named the number of Ukrainian military deaths as 2.5-3 thousand people.
In August 2022, the ex-commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, V. Zaluzhny, said that over six months of the conflict, Ukraine lost 9 thousand military personnel.
In December 2022, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, spoke about 13 thousand dead Ukrainian military personnel.
After this, Ukraine refrained from making official estimates of losses.
The President shifted responsibility for the course of the war to his Western partners.
V. Zelensky made it clear that he believes in Ukraine's victory but is subject to Western countries providing the necessary weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (shells, air defense systems, etc.). "Give us weapons, and we will win!" Ukraine can undoubtedly win the war if it is provided with all the necessary resources. This is now a rather unpopular opinion in the West.
The President, quite often during the press conference, returned to the topic of weapons shortages.
Western expert circles believe that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will exhaust their reserves of shells by June of this year. Therefore, allied countries are urgently looking for options on where to find ammunition for Ukraine. Recently, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, called on EU countries to increase and speed up assistance to Ukraine. Otherwise, the result of the war in Ukraine “could come in the coming months, and V. Putin could win.” "The situation is so dynamic that at the moment, 50% of obligations are not fulfilled on time, which means that we are losing people and territories," said Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
Ukraine has tripled its arms production over the past year, with more than 500 companies now working in the domestic defense sector. Still, the needs of Ukrainian forces are so great that even the defense enterprises of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine combined cannot cover them, said the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Alexander Kamyshin.
All this may indicate that the situation with many types of weapons in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is now really close to critical.
V. Zelensky also tried to fend off questions about mobilization, actually replacing them with the army audit process.
V. Zelensky also actually described the Ukrainian model for negotiations. So, the President said that the principle of the "grain agreement" could also serve as a model for future negotiations with the Russian Federation. But first, V. Zelensky sets as a condition - support for his "Peace Formula" and forming a political coalition around the Ukrainian approach. So Ukraine will finalize V. Zelensky's peace plan and hold a prominent summit of the peace plan at the level of state leaders, who must approve this plan and transfer it to the Russian Federation (they may or may not accept it). According to the head of the Office of the President A. Ermak, more than 160 countries will be invited to the global "peace summit," which will be held in Switzerland (tentatively in the summer) at the level of leaders - an invitation from the Russian Federation is not expected at this stage. After the first meeting, a particular amount of time will be allocated to prepare a joint, formula-based plan for the responsible countries of the world. Today, they are developing a document that could result from this meeting. A. Ermak said that after developing a plan for restoring peace in Ukraine, it would be possible to invite Russia to the second summit of the peace formula and present it to the Russian side without intermediaries.
At the same time, V. Zelensky said he does not want another peace initiative to appear in the West, which he considers a significant threat.
Regarding Western assistance, V. Zelensky said he has "positive" expectations. But he warned that Ukraine needs money from the United States, which was blocked by Congress, in a month at the latest. Due to delays in aid, Ukraine now has to spend its funds to purchase weapons and finance the economy. In January 2024, foreign funding to Ukraine was the lowest since the beginning of the war ($390 million, with an average budget of $3-4 billion per month in 2023). In February, Japan will provide financial assistance worth $12.1 billion to Ukraine. The $4.7 billion grant will arrive by the end of this month. Let us remind you that to cover Ukraine's budget deficit, according to the Ministry of Finance, up to $37.3 billion in foreign aid is needed this year.
Economy.
The EU may introduce restrictions on the import of certain groups of goods for Ukrainian agricultural exports.
The latest proposals from the European Commission regarding possible trade preferences from June 6, 2024, may have negative consequences for Ukraine.
According to the Ukrainian Agricultural Business Club, the EU Regulation may introduce restrictions on importing the most important groups of goods for Ukrainian agricultural exports (poultry meat, sugar, and eggs). Although these restrictions are proposed as protective measures by EU and WTO trade laws, they provide for the automatic return of tariff quotas if imports of these products from Ukraine exceed the arithmetic average of imports for 2022-2023.
These preferences are significant for the Ukrainian agri-food sector, as they allow Ukrainian exporters to maintain production and jobs and ensure foreign exchange earnings during 2022-2023.
The Russian economic war against Ukrainian Black Sea ports has displaced more than 50% of Ukrainian agricultural exports to the EU market.
As the European Commission admits in the explanatory note to the draft regulation, the negative impact of imports from Ukraine on the EU market has yet to be confirmed. In 2023, agricultural imports from Ukraine accounted for only 9% of total EU agri-food imports.
In 2023, exports of agri-food products from Ukraine amounted to $21.9 billion, which accounted for 61% of total exports of goods from Ukraine (versus $23.4 billion and 53% of total exports of goods in 2022). At the same time, the EU’s share in the total volume of exports of agri-food products from Ukraine in 2023 amounted to 56.6% (55.1% in 2022) or $12.4 billion ($12.9 billion in 2022).
Maintaining free access to Ukrainian agricultural products in the EU market is vital for Ukraine's trade balance. Therefore, without a doubt, if the proposed trade restrictions are introduced, Ukraine could face a macroeconomic crisis.
At the same time, EU countries continue to import Russian agricultural products. The numbers are puzzling: in MY 2022/23, the EU imported 835 thousand tons of grain from Russia. For comparison, in 2021/22, these volumes were slightly higher - 1.152 million tons. In less than five months of 2023, these volumes have already reached 811 thousand.
This year, Ukraine could face a macroeconomic crisis and currency devaluation if international financial support does not arrive.
In October last year, Ukraine's balance of payments deficit reached $2.95 billion monthly. This is the worst performance since the financial crisis in 2008 when the balance of payments deficit reached $2.3 billion monthly. Then, in 2008-2009, the Ukrainian hryvnia had to be devalued by 70%," the analysts explained.
The state budget deficit in 2024 will be $43.5 billion. It is expected that $41 billion will come from international donors, including the United States. If at least half of these funds arrive, according to NBU estimates, the currency will have to be devalued by 25-30%. Without financial support, the devaluation will be 40-50%.
From February 13, 2024, Polish farmers resumed protests on the Ukraine border. They oppose food imports from Ukraine, arguing that it undermines their competitiveness.
Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine - Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine A. Kubrakov said that in 2023, almost 27 million tons of cargo, 70% of which were agricultural products. According to him, in January 2024. The export of farm products occurred mainly through maritime transport and amounted to 6.7 million tons.
In January 2024, Ukraine exported goods by sea for $1.9 billion, 11% more than in December 2023. In total, goods worth $3.4 billion were exported in January, 6.9% more than in December 2023.
In particular, Ukraine has rapidly increased its iron ore exports, mainly due to the expansion of the sea corridor. So, in January 2024, Ukraine exported more than 3 million tons of iron ore. This is 90% more than in previous months.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. In January 2024, Ukraine exported 6.3 million tons of agricultural products.
● Most of them were exported through ports - 5.4 million tons (87%)
● By rail - 0.68 million tons (11%)
● By road transport - 0.13 million tons (2%)
A. Kubrakov reported that only 0.37 million tons of agricultural products transited through Poland, about 5% of the total volume.
In 2022, we exported up to 1 million tons of agricultural products per month through Poland. Now, three times fewer agricultural exports pass through Poland than in 2022. At the same time, Ukraine currently exports only 2% of its agricultural products by road transport.
This indicates that the claims of Polish agricultural associations regarding the glut of their market are only partially valid.
Sociology.
The number of citizens who believe that the West is tired of Ukraine has grown by almost a third since the beginning of the war, according to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) (from February 17-23, 2024).
There are still more people who believe that the West continues to support Ukraine to the best of its ability – 49%, but this figure has decreased from 76% at the end of 2022. 44% believe that the West is tired of Ukraine, its support is weak, and that the West would like concessions from Ukraine to Russia. At the end of 2022, only 15% thought so.
The growing belief that the West is ready to leave Ukraine is a negative trend and may lead to decreased confidence in victory.
According to another sociological group "Rating" survey, in February 2024, 85% of citizens believed that Ukraine would win the war with the Russian Federation. But only 19% believe (versus 79%) that they can win without the help of Western countries.
In Ukraine, the number of citizens who believe it necessary to look for a diplomatic way to end the war is growing, according to research by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS). As of early February 2024, 65% believe that the war will end with the return of all territories, including Donbas and Crimea, to Ukrainian control. (in May 2023, they believed in restoring integrity - 71%). At the same time, from 25% in May 2022 to 32% in February 2024, more people admit that there may be some loss of territory due to the war.
Of this 32%, more (19%) are those who believe that the war will end with the retention of currently controlled territories (in May 2022, there were 6%, but since May 2022, Ukraine has liberated a significant part of the territories, that is, in 2024 respondents answered in conditions of the situation on the battlefield, significantly different from the situation in May 2022).
9% believe in liberating all territories Ukraine controls by February 24, 2022. 4% talk about the liberation of all territories together with Donbas but without Crimea.
With confidence in Victory, Ukrainians remain open to the negotiation process. In May 2022, 59%, and in February 2024, 72% believed that Ukraine should look for a diplomatic way to end the war (however, the question's wording was simply about such a process and not concessions).
The situation around Ukraine.
Military and financial support for Ukraine.
Now, the US Presidential Administration continues to make efforts to unblock the aid package for Ukraine and Israel. US President D. Biden met with leaders of Congress and other allies to again try to convince them to assist Ukraine (about $60 billion out of a total package totaling $95 billion) and prevent a shutdown, which could come as early as March 1, when the temporary budget expires. The White House wants the House of Representatives to approve the corresponding bill passed by the Senate. The Western press notes that the confrontation over aid to Ukraine and Israel could even cost the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives M. Johnson, who, probably under the influence of ex-President D. Trump, previously refused to put this law to a vote. In general, the aid package to Ukraine and Israel now acts as an instrument of political confrontation between Democrats and Republicans. The situation will depend on whether the parties can come to some compromise. Presumably, funding for Ukraine will be allocated until June 2024. Still, if the election struggle between the teams of D. Biden and D. Trump takes more radical forms, then the aid package for Ukraine may "hang up" in Congress until the presidential elections in November 2024.
With increasingly severe shortages of ammunition, personnel, and funding, Ukraine's position at the front is becoming a significant concern in Europe.
In particular, possible behind-the-scenes discussions between NATO and EU leaders regarding the possibility of the presence of Western troops in Ukraine were publicly announced.
During the EU summit on Ukraine on February 27 in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out. However, there is no consensus on this yet. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz attended the meeting in Paris, Polish President Andrzej Duda and the prime ministers of about 20 other EU countries, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien, and British Foreign Secretary David Cameron.
The issue of sending Western troops shortly before the summit was also raised by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who told reporters that “ some NATO and EU members are considering sending soldiers to Ukraine on a bilateral basis .” He added that Slovakia, a member of the EU and NATO, will not send soldiers to Ukraine.
E. Germany quickly rejected Macron's proposal to send military personnel to Ukraine. Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said there were "no prospects" for deploying ground troops in Ukraine and instead suggested that E. Macron increase arms supplies to Kyiv.
In the Kremlin, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that a direct conflict with NATO would become “inevitable” if Western countries send troops to Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war, NATO countries have repeatedly stated that the Alliance's first goal is to prevent a third world war, and it will not directly participate in the fighting in Ukraine. Still, there is a danger that the war will affect other European countries.
Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the West must be prepared for a “ten-year confrontation” with Russia. “If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that Russian aggression will not spread to other countries.”
The US has expressed fears that Ukraine could face a “catastrophic” arms shortage and the collapse of its air defense system “in the coming weeks” if it does not receive additional support.
However, there continues to be significant disagreement within NATO countries regarding the issue of providing Ukraine with Western long-range missiles. Speaking about the proposal to send powerful Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine at a debate in Berlin, German Chancellor O. Scholz noted: "Germany occupies the position of the largest military state supporting Ukraine in Europe and will maintain it. However, it is obvious that we will not become a party to the conflict directly or indirectly. These two principles underlie all my decisions." In this regard, the Bundestag decided against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which could radically change the situation.
At the Paris summit, France and the Netherlands agreed on a Czech plan to raise 1.5 billion euros to buy shells for Ukraine outside Europe.
The growing concern in Europe is, to some extent, due to reports that the Russian military is preparing for a new offensive in the spring or early summer of this year. To take advantage of Ukraine's growing supply problems. Currently, after the capture of the city of Avdeevka in the Donetsk region on February 17, the military initiative at the front has passed to the Russian troops, who have already captured villages around the city of Avdeevka and are trying to advance further to the West.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
