HIIA Analysis – Written by Ruslan Bortnik
The history of Ukraine is one big lesson on geopolitical fragility and the absence of effective security guarantees with enforcement mechanisms. Indeed, few countries know the curse of illusory security guarantees better than Ukraine. Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in exchange for international assurances in 1994, not a ratified defense guarantee, which failed operationally in 2014 and strategically by 2022. Today, Ukraine is once again faced with the age-old question of security guarantees, recently voiced by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance. How can Ukraine overcome the curse of security guarantees? Can it avoid another Budapest Memorandum-style trap? This study attempts to objectively understand the differences in traditional approaches to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security, the reasons for their failure now and in previous historical periods, and the most successful international practices and examples. The use of enforceable security guarantees to preserve Ukraine as a self-sufficient, strengthened, stable, neutral country—a compromise zone (a military-political and economic buffer) between the West and the East—would not be a shameful defeat or a temporary solution—it would be a victory for common sense and a humane approach to ending this terrible and dangerous war.
