Alaska-Washington: the birth of a new negotiation track on Ukraine. From the tactics of truce to the search for the parameters of a peace agreement.
The past political week has rightfully become one of the key ones in the diplomatic dynamics around the settlement of the war in Ukraine. For the first time in three years of full-scale war, the negotiation process went beyond the rhetoric of a simple truce and was focused on forming the parameters of a full-fledged peace agreement.
Thus, on August 15, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in Alaska, and on August 18, a meeting between US President Donald Trump and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was held at the White House with the participation of European leaders - President of Finland Alexander Stubb, Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, President of France Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Formally, US President Donald Trump, who is the main moderator of the peace process, has achieved a number of concessions from both sides of the conflict.
In particular, from the Russian leadership - consent to provide Ukraine with Western security guarantees (which means that Ukraine will be, among other things, under Western influence) and the reduction of territorial requirements to the Donetsk region, and not as previously required - to the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Now the issue of a possible exchange of territories is being actively discussed in the public media space: it is assumed that part of the territory of the Donetsk region that has not yet been captured may have to be ceded in exchange for the Russian-controlled regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv regions (Kinburn Spit). In general, the President of the United States believes that the issues of territories should be resolved in the discussion between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.
D. Trump managed to get Ukraine and European allies to agree to negotiate a full-fledged peace agreement and actually abandon the model of an unconditional truce (which they insisted on earlier) as a mandatory precondition for a settlement. This also means that the talks will go hand in hand with the ongoing hostilities. Donald Trump also managed to get Ukraine to agree in principle to discuss the territorial issue (although Ukraine has not yet specified in what context).
Ukraine will not be able to receive guarantees within NATO or the European Union. Therefore, the option of a separate coalition of EU and NATO countries (or Japan, for example, is not being discussed) in the Task Force format, which will conclude a separate agreement with Ukraine, is being discussed. At the same time, the United States seeks to minimize its own involvement. Funding in the amount of $50-100 billion, intended to strengthen the Ukrainian army in the next three years, is being discussed separately.
As part of the talks, a special group was created under the leadership of US Secretary of State S. Rubio and Italian Prime Minister G. Meloni, which will develop models of security guarantees for Ukraine. We are talking about guaranteed supplies of weapons, military assistance in the event of a new war, as well as support for the Armed Forces and the military-industrial complex of Ukraine in peacetime.
One way or another, the negotiation process has moved from the dead center, but more conflict rounds remain ahead, where it will be necessary to consolidate specific agreements in documents and make real concessions. So far, there are many uncertainties and there is no final configuration of the discussed points of a possible peace agreement. Therefore, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine leave room for maneuver, retaining the opportunity to interpret certain "concessions" to D. Trump in their favor.
For example, Russia may revise the terms of security guarantees for Ukraine and the format of a future meeting of two (V. Putin - V. Zelensky) or three leaders (D. Trump - V. Putin - V. Zelensky). Ukraine, on the other hand, is able to interpret its consent to discuss territorial issues in its own way – not in the way most media outlets are writing about it now.
The initiative of the upcoming meeting of the presidents (in the format of Ukraine-Russia or Ukraine-Russia-USA) is used by all participants rather as an instrument of pressure and tactical maneuver, while its real content and consequences remain uncertain. For its part, the White House seems to be aware of such a game. And the expression of US President D. Trump that Vladimir Putin should "behave well" and Volodymyr Zelensky should "show flexibility" reflects the desire to force both sides to make concrete concessions and substantive dialogue. US Vice President J.D. Vance stressed that before the meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, "two big issues remain" - security guarantees for Ukraine and territorial claims of the Russian Federation. "Ukrainians want security guarantees. The Russians want a certain number of territories," he said, adding that these issues can be finally resolved at the meeting of the leaders itself.
The position of the Russian Federation on negotiations. Moscow reacted cautiously to the meeting of US President Donald Trump with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and European allies in Washington. The Kremlin counted on the aggravation of contradictions between D. Trump, V. Zelensky and European leaders, but this did not happen: Trump managed to advance the negotiation agenda and get Kiev's formal consent to discuss the territorial issue and refuse an immediate truce. Now the initiative is returning to Moscow, which seeks to maintain working relations with Donald Trump, avoiding tougher American pressure, in particular through sanctions. But at the same time, the Kremlin does not want to make major concessions to Ukraine and Western countries.
The Russian Federation largely hoped that the meeting in Washington could lead to another aggravation of relations between D. Trump and V. Zelensky, D. Trump and European allies between D. Trump, V. Zelensky and European leaders. However, Trump managed to avoid this negative scenario, promote the negotiation agenda and get Zelensky's consent to discuss the territorial issue, as well as to refuse an immediate truce. Thus, the diplomatic initiative is again in the hands of Moscow, which will have to balance: maintain working relations with D. Trump, avoid toughening the position of the United States (including possible sanctions against India, China and other partners), but at the same time not make significant concessions to Ukraine and Western countries.
Formally, Russian President Vladimir Putin may have given D. Trump consent to hold a meeting with President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, but Moscow continues to insist that such a meeting can take place only after the completion of the preparation of all documents. Now Russia clearly does not seek an active dialogue. The Russians were more restrained regarding the content of the telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.Putin and Trump discussed the idea of raising the level of direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations," Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said, adding that both presidents "spoke in favor of continuing direct negotiations between the delegations of the Russian Federation and Ukraine." Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that any summit should be prepared "step by step, gradually, starting from the expert level and then going through all the necessary stages." That is, the Russian Federation insists on negotiations between the delegations and does not say directly whether V. Putin will lead this delegation for negotiations with V. Zelensky.
The Kremlin makes it clear that it is not against a bilateral meeting between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, if the experts of the groups first agree on a draft document that can be initialed by V. Putin and V. Zelensky. At the same time, the Russian Federation is unlikely to agree to a bilateral meeting of the presidents until the moment of reaching fundamental agreements between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The statement about the alleged invitation of V.Zelensky to Moscow, the Ukrainian side perceives as trolling, nothing more.
At the same time, demonstrating its readiness for a bilateral meeting, the Russian Federation is trying to push the United States to exert more serious pressure on Ukraine in terms of demonstrating its consent to accept key Russian demands: such as Ukraine's acquisition of the status of a neutral state, the abandonment of part of the occupied territories in the eastern part of the country, a radical reduction in its armed forces and the abandonment of aspirations to join NATO.
Also, the key controversial issue on security guarantees for Ukraine remains the deployment of Western troops. Previously, Russia was categorically against this, so there will probably not be significant contingents there. After the meeting between D. Trump and V. Zelensky in Washington, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the Russian Federation "agrees that security guarantees for Ukraine should be provided on an equal basis with the participation of countries such as China, the United States, Great Britain, France." At the same time, he says that "it will not be possible to resolve issues of collective security around Ukraine without Russia."
Ukraine's position on the negotiations. The Ukrainian strategy at the meeting was aimed at trying to change President Donald Trump's tough policy, mitigate the pressure and avoid a situation in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be cornered and forced to accept pre-imposed conditions. Ukraine feared that the United States might demand to immediately agree and sign some preliminary document regarding complex political issues: for example, the exchange of territories, the rejection of NATO or the change of humanitarian policy, etc. But this did not happen. D. Trump did not demand that Ukraine immediately agree and sign any preliminary document during the negotiations. So far, the President of Ukraine has managed to postpone the solution of all difficult issues to a subsequent bilateral or trilateral meeting in the format: Trump-Putin-Zelensky or Zelensky-Putin.
Ukraine also feared that it could face an unconditional refusal of the United States to provide Ukraine with a line of security guarantees. Trump also did not make this kind of refusal, although he did not agree to participate in the future security model for Ukraine.
Thus, Ukraine has maintained working relations with US President Donald Trump, strengthened support from the European coalition and avoided making radical decisions under external pressure.
Ukraine, for its part, now formally and publicly insists on holding a bilateral or trilateral meeting between the presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine (possibly with the participation of the United States), but at the same time fears that it will have to record concessions towards Moscow. In general, the statements of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy about his readiness to meet with President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and discuss territorial concessions raise serious questions about the real parameters of the Ukrainian position. Earlier, Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted the possibility of ending the war along the current front line, subject to the receipt of significant international security guarantees and the legal non-recognition of the occupied territories as Russian consent to the temporary loss of part of the occupied lands. But he did not give his consent to the withdrawal of troops from the territories controlled by Ukraine.
In fact, so far no clear position of Ukraine regarding the consideration of territorial exchange has been voiced. "We will leave the issue of territories between me and Putin," President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said after the summit, without going into details. It is possible that Volodymyr Zelensky does not intend to make concessions, and the consent to a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin is used by him as a tool for diplomatic delay: this avoids a direct refusal to Donald Trump and at the same time shifts the responsibility for a possible failure to the Kremlin. if the meeting does not take place or turns out to be inconclusive. Such an approach would give Ukraine the opportunity to maintain a moral position without agreeing to compromise, and at the same time avoid an immediate conflict with the United States. The head of the President's Office, Yermak, said that Ukraine does not intend to hold a referendum on territorial concessions to the Russian Federation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also signaling his readiness to hold elections in the country, probably meaning after the end of active hostilities. Quote from V. Zelenskyy: "I would be happy if there were already elections. To finish with this topic, because this topic does not give anything except turmoil and political appeals, posters and the like." At the same time, he added: "The main thing is that they give me the opportunity to end the war, and not split the state before that."
In Ukraine, in general, they do not expect an immediate change in the Russian position, on the contrary, a possible offensive in the Zaporozhye direction is predicted. Therefore, preparations are underway for active defense and the continuation of asymmetric warfare: defensive actions on the front line are accompanied by strikes on the Russian rear, energy infrastructure, warehouses, railway junctions, as well as sabotage on the territory of the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian leadership believes that the likelihood of continuing the war is higher than the likelihood of reaching real peace agreements in the near future.
One way or another, after the summit in the White House, the likelihood of signing a peace agreement continues to increase. If after the negotiations in Alaska it could be estimated at about 35%, now it is already 45%. Under pressure from the President of the United States, the parties were able to move forward and get out of a number of deadlocks that had held back the process earlier. This creates real prerequisites for concluding an agreement within the next two to three months. However, the process will not be fast: this entire period will be accompanied by intense hostilities.
The main uncertainties of the negotiation process can be reduced to several issues. First of all, it is the formation of a geostrategic balance between the Russian Federation and the United States. Moscow is seeking agreements on the reduction of the American military presence in Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet space, including missile systems. Such agreements can be formalized in the format of extending arms control agreements or through separate bilateral packages. The fate of V. Zelensky and his team is also important- whether the funds will be returned to the Russian Federation or used to restore Ukraine, as well as whether Moscow will be able to regain access to European markets. Finally, there is uncertainty around relations in the US-RF-PRC triangle, since any US-Russian agreements can change the balance of both Russian-Chinese and US-Chinese relations.
There is still a significant risk that the talks may turn out to be only a formal imitation designed to avoid irritation and pressure from the White House and Donald Trump, who is now the main mediator of the process. In the future, we can expect even more complex and conflicting rounds of negotiations, when the parties will have to move from general declarations to specific documents and agreements.
The war continues, and the parties (Ukraine and the Russian Federation) do not stop trying to seize new territories, while striking at each other's energy infrastructure.
The energy front of the war and the negotiation context.
The fact that the degree of tension between the main parties to the conflict remains high. Ukraine and Russia have simultaneously intensified their attacks on each other's energy systems. Ukraine is hitting Russian refineries and oil pumping stations (Unecha, Nikolskoye), disabling the Druzhba oil pipeline and demonstrating the vulnerability of oil transit to Europe. Russia is responding with strikes on the gas transmission system and refineries of Ukraine (Lubny, Kremenchuk, Izmail), seeking to paralyze the supply of Kiev and the west of the country. Energy escalation is becoming an integral part of the negotiation game: the parties seek to strengthen their positions not only by military successes at the front, but also by creating a crisis in the enemy's economy and supply.
So, on August 14-15, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the Volgograd Lukoil refinery and the Syzran refinery in the Samara region, both enterprises were seriously damaged and reduced fuel production for the Russian army. On August 16, the nodal facility of the Russian oil transportation system, the Unecha oil pumping station in the Bryansk region, was hit, and on August 18, a similar blow was struck at the Nikolskoye station in the Tambov region, which led to a temporary shutdown of the Druzhba oil pipeline and interruptions in oil supplies to Europe.
At the same time, the Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group penetrated up to 40 km deep into the Bryansk region, where it planned to blow up a large railway junction, but was discovered by the FSB: three fighters were killed, three more, including the commander, were captured.
In response, Russia intensified massive attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector. On the night of August 19, strikes fell on the Kremenchuk refinery (Poltava region), which was almost destroyed, as well as on the Lubny gas compressor station, which provides gas transportation from the Kharkiv region to Kyiv and further to the western regions. Serious damage was caused to the facility, which actually paralyzed the operation of several main routes at once.
At the same time, Russian missiles and drones hit the fuel and energy infrastructure in the city of Izmail (Odessa region), where an oil depot in the port caught fire and the Orlovka gas distribution station, through which Ukraine receives Azerbaijani gas, was damaged. It is noteworthy that the Russian side avoided attacks on SOCAR's infrastructure for a long time, but the situation has changed against the backdrop of aggravated relations between Moscow and Baku.
Already on the night of August 21, Russia launched a new massive strike, firing about 614 drones and missiles at the territory of Ukraine. As a result, facilities were damaged in the Rivne region (power outages were recorded), the Kyiv region (damage to the power grid, partial interruptions), the city of Dnipro (fires at energy facilities) and the village of Okhtyrka in the Sumy region, where the attack hit the gas infrastructure.
Thus, since mid-August, both sides have been building up pressure precisely through strikes on energy facilities. Ukraine purposefully disabled Russian refineries and oil pumping stations, demonstrating the vulnerability of the Druzhba oil pipeline, and Russia responded by hitting Ukraine's gas transmission system and key refineries, which led to large-scale power outages in the central and southern regions.
Fighting.
During the week, Russian troops (the period from August 15 to August 21, 2025) captured another 90 km2 of Ukrainian territory and now control 114.559 km2. The main hostilities are developing in several directions at once - in the Donetsk, Zaporozhye, Luhansk and partially Dnipropetrovsk regions. taking into account the transfer of Ukrainian reserves near Dobropillia.
In the Dobropillia direction in the Donetsk region, where the Russian Federation made a breakthrough a few days ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed the Azov regiment and a number of other brigades. As a result, it was possible to recapture the settlements of Zolotoy Kolodyaz and the settlements of Veseloye, as well as to wedge between the positions of the Russian Federation in the area of the settlements of Kucherov Yar.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed back Russian units along the western edge of the wedge in the area of the settlements of Novoye Shakhovo and the settlements of Nikanorovka. There are battles for the settlement of Mayak, which, like the settlement of Nikanorovka, is located at the base of the Russian wedge. Ukraine is trying to "cut" the wedge from both sides. Between the settlement of Mayak and the settlement of Nikanorovka (about 4 km remains under the control of the Russian Federation).
Russian forces have entrenched themselves in the areas of the settlements of Sukhetske and Pankovka. The Russian Federation is also reinforcing the grouping to the south and is trying to connect with units in the settlements of Kucherov Yar.
In the area of Pokrovsk (a large supply and control center in the Donetsk region), the front remains tense, but there have been no significant changes.
In the western part of the Donetsk region, the advance of the Russian army in the area of the village of Muravka is noted.
Luhansk region. Russian forces entrenched themselves in the area of the Serebryansky forestry , the last section of the Luhansk region that remained under Ukrainian control.
Zaporozhye region and the junction with Dnipropetrovsk. The Russian Federation has advanced in the areas of Temyrivka and Olhivske (east of Zaporizhzhia Oblast). Fighting is underway near the settlement of Novogeorgievka (Dnipropetrovsk region, near the border of Zaporozhye).
There is a high probability that Russia is preparing a new offensive in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This is evidenced by the increase in the transportation of equipment and fuel in the Melitopol area, an increase in the intensity of airstrikes and shelling along the lines of Ukrainian defense, as well as the concentration of additional units near the front line. In the event of such a scenario, the settlements of Orikhiv and the settlements of Gulyaipole with subsequent access to the line of the Konka River may become likely targets.
The course of hostilities can have a very significant impact on the negotiations. For example, now the Russian Federation proceeds from the fact that the Donetsk region can probably be consolidated by political and diplomatic means, and control over the Zaporizhzhia region can only be established over those territories that will actually be captured.
Map of hostilities.
Donetsk region.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
