Trump's Peace Plan: The first realistic view of the end of the Ukrainian-Russian war.

It must be admitted that Trump's peace plan is not about international law or justice, because they do not protect Ukraine well, but about a real assessment of the military-political balance between the parties, the trends of the war and the human rights of millions of Ukrainians and Russians who suffer and may die if this war continues.

Developed in consultation with the Ukrainian and Russian sides, the team of the US President, including US Secretary of State Miguel Rubio, Special Representative of the President of the United States Stephen Whitkoff and son-in-law of US President Donald Trump Donald Kushner, is actually implementing a strategy of "sacrificing a little to save more" – part of the territory and sovereignty to save the bulk of Ukraine from destruction.

In fact, the 28-point plan provides for the end of hostilities by forming a new geopolitical status for Ukraine as a non-aligned state (without the right to deploy Western allied troops on its territory) in the Western political and economic zone of influence (the key investment manager is the United States, the possibility of integration into the EU) with the loss of part of economic (and transit) and military-political sovereignty, without strict security guarantees (without collective defense); and with the loss of part of the territories (Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as large parts of Kherson and Zaporozhye) and humanitarian sovereignty in favor of the Russian Federation (restored rights of Russian speakers and the UOC). This is a kind of "Finlandization" of the period 1940-1945, but only its much milder form.

Ukraine will have to reformat power through elections (partial or complete loss of power of the team of President V. Zelensky is possible). Also, Ukraine will not be able to join NATO and must abandon this goal, but receives assurances of military-technical and economic assistance in recovery in the event of a new Russian aggression, maintains a large army (up to 600 thousand people), and Western forces are increasing in Poland (fighters) as part of the "Coalition of the Willing" or according to the model of NATO's "Eastern Guardian" operation as insurance for Ukraine. There are no restrictions on the deployment of weapons systems, or they will be provided for by subsequent US-Russian agreements (for example, within the framework of the START dialogue).

Russia, in addition to territorial gains and the new status of Ukraine, will receive a gradual lifting of sanctions in exchange for a formal renunciation of its aggressive policy and frozen assets, most of which ($100 billion) will go to the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, and the other part to joint US-Russian economic projects. At the same time, the Kremlin will be deprived of the opportunity to influence the political and economic processes in Ukraine. or rather, in most of it (which, in fact, will not be controlled by the Russian Federation). That is why, even after the possible coordination of D. Trump's peace plan with Ukraine and Europe, then objections and discussions from the Russian side are possible. (For a more detailed selection of D. Trump's peace plan of 28 points, see the Appendix in Table No1).

At the same time, the plan itself is not an agreement, but a Declaration of Intent. The implementation of this document provides for the signing of several dozen more agreements, amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, the NATO Charter, hundreds of laws of Ukraine or by-laws (such work is not being carried out) and can last for years, even if there is goodwill.

In fact, for the Ukrainian leadership, the implementation of this plan without fundamental changes looks extremely difficult and politically toxic. For example, how will it be possible to give an order to withdraw from the Donetsk region and be responsible for it? But at the same time, it is extremely important for Ukraine not to spoil relations with its most important ally - the United States. Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership as a whole demonstrates openness to discussing D. Trump's plan.

Ukraine, with the help of European partners (primarily Germany, France, Britain), expects to significantly change some provisions of Trump's peace plan. Thus, the European allies prepared a 24-point counter-proposal rejecting some of the conditions of D. Trump's plan. But later on November 25, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Europe refuses to promote its own plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and is ready to cooperate on the US proposal. "There was a strong consensus that we should work with the existing text, although some parts of it are unacceptable, but other parts are substantial, and not with another text," Starmer said.

But still, the European position (albeit not a plan), which is significantly different from the position of D. Trump, will be the topic of negotiations and arguments. In Europe, they will strive to ensure that US peace proposals do not ultimately look like "remuneration of the Russian Federation for the war unleashed."

Europe proposes: a higher bar for the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - up to 800 thousand people (although the real number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be dictated by the economic capabilities of Ukraine); the abolition of the refusal to join NATO (although a consensus of members is needed here, which is not there); for some reason, the role of the United States in the dialogue has been reduced and the obligations of the Russian Federation regarding guarantees of non-aggression against Europe have been discarded; the points of humanitarian changes in Ukraine (the rights of national minorities and religious groups) have been reformatted; the ineffectiveness of the protection of which is a consequence of European policy; the refusal of amnesty was recorded; does not want to limit the elections in Ukraine to 100 days (as in the American plan); insists on the transfer of all Russian frozen assets to Ukraine; there will be no NATO troops precisely "in peacetime".

At the talks in Geneva, the delegations of the United States and Ukraine prepared an updated peace plan of 19 points. The exact content of this plan has not yet been published. But it is preliminary known that the Americans agreed to remove the clause limiting the Ukrainian army to 600 thousand servicemen. The proposal for a general amnesty for possible war crimes has been reworked to take into account the interests of "those who have suffered from the war." Ukraine allegedly agreed to limit the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 800,000 soldiers.

At the same time, the most difficult elements of the plan for Ukraine, which relate to changing the territory of Ukraine, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the entire Donbas, security guarantees for Ukraine, were left to the final decision of the Presidents of the two countries. But the White House said that a meeting between US leader Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not yet planned.

Also, according to the Western press, at the talks in Geneva, the US and Ukrainian delegations agreed that issues not directly related to peace in Ukraine - including the future of NATO, European security and US-Russian relations - would be excluded from the agenda.

It is obvious that in the promotion of shuttle negotiations between the United States and Ukraine and the Russian Federation, D. Trump's peace plan will change in comparison with its original version, which has already been announced in the White House, but at the same time these changes have not yet been publicly disclosed so as not to "interfere with the negotiation process." At the same time, the very process of agreeing on a peace plan is already clearly delayed. Thus, after the talks between the United States and Ukraine in Geneva, Ukraine managed to achieve an extension of the deadline previously set by US President Donald Trump - November 27, 2025 for Ukraine's support of the proposed peace plan. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that this deadline is not a fixed and irreversible date. It is more of a political reference point than a strict time limit. According to Rubio, the deadline may be postponed to next week, and the main priority of the United States is not the formal date, but the very fact of moving forward with the negotiations. He stressed: "You know, whether it's Thursday (November 27), Friday, Wednesday or Monday next week, we want it to happen sooner." There is still a high probability that the deadline will be "stretched" in the future. If negotiations continue at this pace, the process will drag on until Christmas, when the US administration goes on vacation, and will resume only in mid-January next year.

It is not known how the Kremlin will react to Trump's peace plan, which was updated at the talks with Ukraine, which was taken to Moscow by Stephen Whitkoff and David Kushner. It is important to understand that when Ukrainian officials say that "Ukraine agrees with Trump's plan," they are not referring to the US president's 28-point peace plan, which was presented to Kyiv last week, but its heavily revised and truncated version of 19 points, which the Ukrainian and American delegations discussed in Geneva. it is likely that it has been reworked in such a way that Moscow may not agree with it. In addition, two key issues - the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk region and NATO membership were postponed altogether.

As long as the Russian Federation retains room for maneuver, they are talking about their readiness to discuss Trump's peace plan, but not about its adoption. Russian President Vladimir Putin refers to the 28-point peace plan, but at the same time emphasizes the need for a settlement "in the spirit of the agreements reached in Anchorage." By this, Moscow probably means preliminary non-formalized agreements with the American side, which, according to the Kremlin, set a more favorable framework for the Russian Federation than the current proposals of the United States, Europe and Ukraine.

At the same time, Putin deliberately avoids open polemics with US President Donald Trump. This position is based on the calculation that the United States and Ukraine will not be able to develop a common position in the end, and then Washington, according to Moscow's calculations, will either accept the Russian approach as a basis, or begin to put pressure on Kiev and Europe in order to make concessions. Putin does not trust the West and is not ready to end the war without prior advances. He proceeds from the experience of the Minsk agreements, which are perceived in Russian society as a deception and defeat, and Putin himself has openly criticized them in the past. Putin wants to receive an "advance" in the form of securing the Donetsk region for the Russian Federation - as a territorial guarantee in case of failure of further negotiations. Even if the rest of the plan is not implemented, he will be able to present his society as a victory.

In general, U.S. President Donald Trump and his team, despite serious achievements in the peace talks on Ukraine, still have hard and difficult work to do. It is necessary to break through the "two rings of political encirclement" – internal (on the part of the Democrats and hawks) and external – on the part of the Ukrainians, Europeans and the Kremlin. The Americans, on the one hand, need to rework or preserve the key proposals that looked attractive to Moscow, аnd on the other hand, not to slide into confrontation with allies or with one of the parties to the conflict (no matter which one).

Ruslan Bortnik and Oksana Krasovskaya for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics

Application. Table No1