At the invitation of the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in Ukraine, the Ukrainian Institute of Politics held a closed briefing for representatives of the diplomatic corps and military attachés of foreign embassies, as well as international organizations. More than 30 representatives of diplomatic missions and international structures took part in the discussion. In particular, representatives from Austria, Moldova, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Latvia, and other countries attended the meeting.
The main topic of the briefing was the current military-political situation in Ukraine, the prospects for the development of events until the end of the year and beyond, as well as the issue of maintaining cooperation between Ukraine and its Western partners. The meeting discussed possible scenarios for the development of the conflict and mechanisms for supporting Ukraine on the international stage.
After the speakers' presentations, representatives of the diplomatic corps and military attachés asked a number of clarifying questions on the topics discussed, which allowed for an expanded discussion and a deeper analysis of the situation.
Participants of the Meeting:
From the Ukrainian Institute of Politics:
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Ruslan Bortnik – political scientist, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics.
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Oleh Starikov – military expert.
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Marina Stavniychuk – member of the European Commission for Democracy through Law (2009-2013), chairperson of the board of the public association "For Democracy through Law".
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Oksana Krasovskaya – expert-analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of Politics.
Geopolitical Changes and the D. Trump Factor.
Ruslan Bortnik, Ukrainian political scientist and director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, provided a comprehensive analysis of the current situation around Ukraine, changes in international politics, and the impact of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election on the global balance of power.
He noted that Ukraine remains a functioning state but faces growing challenges – resource depletion, dependence on external assistance, and a mobilization crisis. The military situation at the front remains deadlocked: neither side can achieve a decisive advantage, but Russia retains tactical superiority, partially due to delays in Western military aid. The socio-political situation in Ukraine is also unstable – a significant portion of the population supports ending the war, which creates a divide between the government and society.
According to Ruslan Bortnik, Ukraine and its allies should not try to resist Trump but rather adapt to the new geopolitical reality. His rise to power is not an accident but an organic stage in the development of American society and the global political process. In these conditions, a successful strategy for Ukraine involves building dialogue with the new U.S. administration and taking into account the changing nature of international relations.
Military Situation and Tactical Changes.
Oleh Starikov, a military expert, described changes in the tactics of warfare and the strategic position of the Ukrainian army.
Starikov emphasized that the tactics of warfare have significantly evolved. If earlier attacks were conducted head-on, the enemy now employs more flexible strategies – flanking maneuvers, massive airstrikes, and attacks on fortifications. The main problem of the Ukrainian army remains resource exhaustion and the lack of rotation. Soldiers are in constant combat tension, which leads to moral and physical exhaustion.
He pointed out that Russia continues to adapt its strategy, utilizing experience gained in Syria. The Ukrainian army faces the challenge of effectively adapting to these changes and forming sufficiently capable assault units. The situation in Southern Donbas remains critical, and without prompt decisions, this region could be at risk. The Pokrovsk direction has become a key point of potential further hostilities.
Prospects for Holding Elections in Ukraine in 2025
Marina Stavniychuk, a lawyer, expert in electoral law, and member of the European Commission for Democracy through Law (2009-2013), presented an analysis of the possibilities of holding elections in Ukraine in 2025.
According to her, organizing elections in the near future is extremely difficult from both a technical and political standpoint. Among the key problems is the participation of citizens abroad, as many have left the country to avoid mobilization. The complexity of organizing voting in war-affected areas could also lead to social tension and distrust in the election results.
Legal and infrastructural obstacles remain unresolved: a significant part of the territories is occupied or destroyed, the voter registry has suffered from cyberattacks, and election commissions are not fully functioning. Even if a ceasefire is achieved, Ukraine will require a prolonged period to restore the electoral process. Hastiness in this matter could lead to a serious political crisis. Therefore, the key task at this stage is to prepare a democratic foundation for future elections and stabilize the socio-political situation in the country.
The Ukrainian Institute of Politics expresses its sincere gratitude to the Embassy of the Republic of Poland for the invitation and organization of this event.
Material prepared by Oksana Krasovskaya, expert-analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of Politics.
