The United States is increasing political pressure on the Russian Federation in order to end the war in Ukraine.
At the moment, the situation around US President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Russia is approaching a key point: on Friday, August 8, the 10-day deadline set by Washington to reach an agreement to end the war in Ukraine expires.
D. Trump's special envoy Steve Whitkoff, who is now in Moscow (August 6-7), has become the main diplomatic channel through which the parties are trying to find a compromise solution and avoid the launch of tough secondary sanctions by the United States, potentially directed not only against Russia, but also against its largest trading partners – China and India. Recall that on July 14, at talks with NATO Secretary General M. Rutte, US President D. Trump said that he would introduce secondary duties of 100% against Russia's trading partners if an agreement on peace in Ukraine was not reached in the next 50 days (by September 2). But later, D. Trump at a meeting with British Prime Minister K. Starmer announced that he was reducing the period of the "ultimatum" to Russia to 10 days (until August 8).
The situation around Ukraine risks becoming not only a front of direct conflict, but also a field for global geo-economic confrontation. In the event of the implementation of threats from the US President and the introduction of secondary sanctions, a chain reaction could involve China and India, launching irreversible processes in world trade and the system of international alliances.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States is seeking to avoid imposing harsh sanctions on Russia, such as secondary measures against buyers of Russian oil and banking restrictions, and hopes to find a diplomatic way to end the war in Ukraine. However, he admitted that recent talks with senior Russian officials have not brought progress, and Moscow, according to him, does not demonstrate a real interest in establishing peace, continuing to strike at Ukrainian cities. Rubio stressed that the US administration will not endlessly wait for a change in the Kremlin's position and at a certain point may be forced to implement the prepared tough pressure measures.
D. Trump later said that he considers "disgusting" what Russia is doing in Ukraine, and expressed doubts that sanctions will help, but promised to impose them. In general, D. Trump is increasingly expressing disappointment in the refusal of Russian President V. Putin to agree to a ceasefire after 6 telephone conversations since February 2025.
On the eve of the visit of US Special Representative Steve Whitkoff to Moscow, on August 5, 2025, a telephone conversation took place between US President Donald Trump and President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. During the talks, Zelensky stressed the need to intensify diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia, and also informed Trump about the difficult situation in Ukrainian cities that are being subjected to massive missile and drone attacks. In addition, the presidents discussed strengthening US military support for Ukraine, including the signing of a major agreement on the production of Ukrainian attack and reconnaissance drones with American participation.
It is significant that immediately before Whitkoff's visit to Moscow, the US State Department officially approved two new weapons contracts with Ukraine on August 5: one worth $104 million, intended for the repair, supply of spare parts and maintenance of American M777 howitzers, and the second worth $99.5 million, providing transport services and logistical support. From May 2025, the administration Trump has already approved six major arms contracts with a total value of more than $1 billion. Also, for the first time since the beginning of D. Trump's second presidential term, despite his initially cautious position regarding military spending on Ukraine, new bills were presented in Congress on the allocation of additional military assistance to Kiev for $ 500 million, which may serve as an additional factor of pressure on the Russian side in the current negotiations.
For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin reacted to Donald Trump's ultimatum and the threat of secondary sanctions after August 8. Putin said that "all disappointments arise from excessive expectations," stressing the need for "calm and non-public negotiations." He announced the creation of three negotiating groups, adding that the Ukrainian side reacted positively to this initiative. Vladimir Putin once again confirmed that Russia's conditions for ending the war remain unchanged and again referred to his statements made in June last year, indicating the main goal of "eradicating the causes of the who gave rise to this crisis." In addition, he expressed his readiness to discuss the security of Russia and Ukraine in a broader European context.
Nevertheless, Moscow seeks to avoid a direct conflict with Washington and is looking for a "symbolic gift" that would satisfy the United States and at the same time would not look like capitulation for V. Putin. One of these options could be a temporary air truce with Ukraine - the cessation of missile and drone strikes, it is expected that Kiev will take a similar step.
It is worth noting that the visit of Stephen Whitkoff to Moscow from the Russian side is supervised by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, who is responsible for international economic contacts and is close to President Vladimir Putin. During the visit, meetings with a number of high-ranking representatives of the Kremlin are also planned. Thus, the Russian Federation is trying to buy time and reduce the risks of large-scale economic pressure, while not retreating from its strategic demands. If Stephen Whitkoff returns to Washington without any specific agreements, this will create a significant political and diplomatic challenge for Trump: he will either have to implement the threat of sanctions and face global consequences, or retreat from his own ultimatum deadlines.
The Kremlin is demonstrating in every possible way that it is not going to give up its positions under pressure and make any concessions in the negotiations.
On August 4, Russia announced the lifting of unilateral restrictions previously in effect under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. This decision actually unties the hands of the Russian military leadership to deploy new models of medium-range hypersonic ballistic missiles. Such a demonstrative position of Moscow may be due to the desire to increase pressure on Europe and the United States against the backdrop of escalating military threats and strategic exercises, including Zapad-2025.
That is, now the Russian Federation does not consider itself bound by self-restrictions on the deployment of ground-based intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles.
Of particular importance is the announcement of the completion of the first serial batch of the latest Oreshnik complex, which has already been handed over to the troops. After the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, it was emphasized that joint Russian-Belarusian military working groups have identified the places of permanent deployment of these complexes, and now they are being prepared for operation. enhances Russia's power projection and nuclear deterrence capabilities in Eastern Europe, especially in the context of tactical nuclear simulation exercises.
In parallel, the Russian Federation and Belarus plan to start the Zapad-2025 strategic nuclear exercises next month.
It is officially stated that about 13 thousand military personnel will take part in the exercises, observers from the OSCE will be invited. According to experts and intelligence, the real number of participants, taking into account reserves and support, may reach 100 thousand people.
The Belarusian side decided to conduct exercises in the depths of the country, and not on the border with NATO. Scenarios for the use of tactical nuclear weapons, hypersonic missiles and even an imitation of an invasion of NATO countries or Ukraine can be worked out.
President Vladimir Zelensky said earlier that Russia could be preparing new provocations under the guise of exercises.
In 2021, the Zapad exercises, with up to 200 thousand participants, became a prelude to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Now three Iskander complexes have been transferred to the Brest region, about 100 kilometers from the Rivne region of Ukraine.
Within the framework of Zapad-2025, combat launches of Iskander-M complexes can be carried out - as an element of the nuclear, hypersonic or information pressure scenario.
In 2021, the exercises were used as a cover to prepare for a real invasion. This time, the risks are even higher: scenarios for nuclear strikes, hypersonic missile launches and rehearsals for the invasion of Ukraine can be worked out.
A set of solutions – the abolition of the INF Treaty restrictions, the serial production of new missile systems, their deployment on allied territory and joint military planning with Belarus – is an element of Russia's response strategy to the toughening of the positions of Western countries, including the sanctions policy. This not only increases the military threat to neighboring states, but also creates new risks for strategic stability in Europe. demonstrating the Kremlin's readiness for further escalation and raising the stakes in potential security negotiations.
The U.S. has imposed new import duties on dozens of countries.
In early August 2025, US President Donald Trump signed a decree introducing new import duties for dozens of countries - in particular, 15% for the European Union, 25% for India and Moldova, 35% for Serbia, 39% for Switzerland, as well as an increase in the tariff for Canada from 25% to 35%. China and Russia are absent from this sanctions list, which emphasizes the targeted pressure on partners and third countries that maintain a multi-vector economic approach. Despite the fact that it was initially announced that the duties would come into force on August 1, in fact their launch was postponed to August 7 for technical reasons - the White House explained that a week of postponement will allow the US Customs and Border Protection to prepare the infrastructure for the effective administration of the new tariffs. Earlier, Donald Trump signed an executive order introducing an additional tariff of 40% on all goods from Brazil from August 1.Taking into account the already existing "standard" duty of 10%, the total level of tariffs will reach 50%.
Separately, it is worth noting that the introduction of new duties by the United States - 25% for India and 40% for Brazil - was a reflection of growing tensions in relations with these states, which are now key BRICS countries, shifting the focus of influence from the Russian Federation and China. The last BRICS forum in Rio de Janeiro, dominated by India and Brazil in the absence of the leaders of Moscow and Beijing, only emphasized their growing importance among the countries of the Global South. economic pressure, trying to force these states to more favorable agreements for the United States. Significant trade deficits and structurally complex relations with Brazil, as well as the strengthening of India's role as a global player, strengthen the Trump administration's motives to tighten the tariff policy and put forward tough ultimatums to the leaders of the new BRICS.
Although the BRICS are often perceived as a counterweight to Western countries, their economies remain closely tied to the United States. In general, the economic models of the BRICS members differ significantly. China and Russia rely on state control and commodity markets, while India, Brazil and South Africa take more liberal market approaches and focus on attracting Western investment. Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (Egypt, UAE, Saudi Arabia) are also heavily dependent on Western markets, technology and military support, while Russia and Iran, on the contrary, they are isolated from the West and are forced to develop alternative mechanisms of cooperation. India and Brazil in general are trying to balance between the BRICS and the US/EU and avoid open confrontation with the West, while Russia and Iran – states less dependent on the American market – take a tougher anti-Western stance. As of 2024, exports to the United States account for about 18% of India's total exports and about 12.5% of Brazil's exports, which is equivalent to 2% and 1.8% of their GDP, respectively. Such dependence objectively limits the willingness of the largest members of the bloc to go into open confrontation with Washington and forces them to act cautiously.
It is worth noting that in terms of tariffs, the most difficult negotiations in the United States are with China, since Beijing felt that it could influence the United States by stopping the export of rare earth metals. Beijing is fiercely bargaining, and therefore the United States does not yet have any concrete steps towards China, except for those that are worth continuing negotiations.
Massive shelling of Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of tariff escalation and threats from the United States to the Russian Federation, another major attack on Ukraine follows. From which we can conclude that the main trading partner of the Russian Federation (China) has not yet agreed to D. Trump's terms and is not trying to persuade Moscow to accept American peace terms. Russia, apparently, is betting on a military scenario, it has resumed large-scale attacks using new types of attack drones.
A noticeable pause in strikes on Kyiv lasted from July 10 to the end of July. This coincides with the visit of Trump's Special Representative Kellogg and active diplomatic efforts. Nevertheless, the cessation of the raids turned out to be temporary. On the night of July 30-31, Russian forces launched more than 300 drones and 8 cruise missiles at Ukraine, they were directed at Kyiv and other regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions) - in a number of them infrastructure and residential buildings were destroyed.
Strikes were carried out at 27 points in the capital, including residential areas, schools, hospitals and the Zhulyany airport. The main destruction was recorded in the Solomianskyi and Sviatoshynskyi districts, where a nine-story residential building partially collapsed, which led to the death of up to 31 people, including two- and six-year-old children; More than 150 people were injured, including dozens of children. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that the Russian Federation used Geran-3 (Geran-3 / Shahed-238) jet drones at a speed of over 500 km / h, difficult to intercept, especially at altitude up to 9 km. About 21 drones were not shot down, since only strike aircraft or large air defense systems are able to cope with them.
In the city of Kherson , since Saturday (August 2), Russian troops have been carrying out air strikes on the bridge connecting the Ostrov microdistrict (also known as Korabel) with the rest of the city. As a result, the bridge was seriously damaged, although traffic on it is still possible. The Ostrov microdistrict is located on the southwestern outskirts of Kherson, closest to the left bank of the Dnieper and the southern front line, and is important for the defense infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area.
Fighting.
Russian troops continue their offensive on the Ukrainian front. During the week, Russian troops (the period from July 30 to August 6, 2025) captured another 100 km2 of Ukrainian territory and now control 114.288 km2.
In July, Russian forces advanced 564 square kilometers. This is 12 square kilometers more than in June, and is the highest figure for all months of 2024-2025, with the exception of November, when the Russian Federation seized 730 square kilometers.
In the Donetsk region, in the Novopavlivka direction , Russian troops achieved the greatest results, capturing 34% of the total territory in a month, while carrying out only 12% of all attacks. In the Pokrovsky and Sumy directions, Russian forces needed significantly more assault operations (35% and 11% of all attacks, respectively), but territorial gains there turned out to be relatively smaller.
The main reasons for the increased pace of the Russian advance are the problems of Ukrainian forces with personnel (lack of trained infantry) and the difficulties in countering Russian attack drones, the effectiveness of which has increased markedly in recent months.
In the Donetsk region, the most active fighting continues in the area of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, which the Russian troops are trying to bypass from the northeast from the north in the area of the settlement of Rodimskoye. As a result, logistics are becoming more complicated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the road to Pavlohrad from the west is already under fire from the Russian Federation.
Between the city of Konstantinovka and the city of Pokrovsk, the troops of the Russian Federation advanced near the city of Toretsk and captured the village of Popov Yar.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation declares the complete capture of the city of Chasov Yar, in Ukraine this has not yet been confirmed. The southern and western parts of the city are still under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And the Russians advanced near Bila Hora, which is south of Chasiv Yar. In the event of the loss of Chasiv Yar, the situation for Konstantinovka becomes significantly more complicated - the released Russian group may begin to attack the city from the northeast.
Also, Russian troops advanced in the south of the Donetsk region near the village of Voskresenka and near the village of Zelene Pole - at the junction with the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions. It is reported that the Russian troops have gained a foothold behind the administrative border already on the territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region near the village of Sichneve (Yanvarske).
Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia direction captured the settlements of Kamianske and the settlements of Verkhnekamenskoye near Siversk.
Map of hostilities.
Donetsk region.
Sumy region.
The situation around anti-corruption bodies.
Under the threat of political destabilization and external (Western partners) and internal pressure (opposition), on July 31, 2025, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine generally adopted the presidential bill No 13533 "On the restoration of the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO)", repealing a significant part of the provisions of the crisis law No 12414 (4555-IX), which essentiallylimited their independence. The bill received the support of 331 people's deputies, while the Servant of the People faction gave 214 votes.
The bill cancels most of the changes to the Criminal Procedure Code that were made as a result of the adoption of law 12414 regarding NABU and SAPO.
The procedural powers and guarantees of independence of NABU and SAPO are fully restored, including the independent management of investigations and the ability to conduct complaints and appeals from the SAPO leadership.
The status of the "head of the prosecutor's office" is returned to the head of the SAPO, as provided for by the Criminal Procedure Code and the Law on the Prosecutor's Office.
The Prosecutor General cannot give mandatory written instructions to NABU detectives and internal control of NABU and SAPO.
Some provisions of Law No. 12414 concerning the conditions of dismissal and the automatic termination of the powers of prosecutors in the reorganization of the prosecutor's office are preserved.
The norm that allows the Prosecutor General to give written instructions to the head of the pre-trial investigation body remains, although with a clarification that this does not apply to NABU detectives and the internal control department.
The law leaves changes regarding the simplified procedure for appointment to the prosecutor's office without competition - in particular, from among ex-law enforcement officers and changes in the dismissal of prosecutors - including from senior positions.
The President's bill instructs the Cabinet of Ministers and NABU to amend the ban on the travel of NABU employees abroad, except in cases of business trips. However, according to the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, in 2023, officials have already been banned from traveling abroad - except for business trips and medical treatment.
The law also provides for a polygraph for NABU employees who have access to state secrets. However, as noted in NABU, they are already passing a polygraph.
The transitional provisions provide that the internal control unit of the NABU, SAPO, BES, the Office of the Prosecutor General, the State Bureau of Investigation, the National Police, according to the methodology agreed with the SBU, at least once every 2 years conducts polygraph examinations of employees of the NABU, SAPO, BEB, the Office of the Prosecutor General, the State Bureau of Investigation, the National Police, who have access to state secrets, for the purpose of committing actions in favor of the Russian Federation.
Within 6 months from the date of entry into force of this law, the SBU conducts an inspection of employees of the NABU, SAPO, BEB, the Prosecutor General's Office, the State Bureau of Investigation, the National Police who have access to state secrets for actions in favor of the Russian Federation.
The powers of anti-corruption bodies have been formally restored, but this has not eliminated all the accumulated discontent. Despite the fact that with the adoption of the new law No 13533 the potential of protests should be exhausted, this issue largely depends on the extent to which the authorities will be able to coordinate their new position and steps to revise Law No 12414 with European partners and satisfy the key conductors of liberal interests in Ukraine. In the future, however, there are certain risks that the protest agenda may not fade away completely, but may be transformed and cover a wider range of issues - from anti-corruption policy to changes in the personnel policy of the authorities.
The decision to restore the powers of NABU and SAP is not the result of an agreement with Western partners, but rather the result of direct pressure and street mobilization, supported by the threat of stopping funding. In this logic, the Ukrainian authorities seek to maintain control over at least other important bodies - the SBI, ARMA and BEB, which have also become political targets for the West.
At the same time, the political system of power itself weakened. In this situation, the law enforcement agencies and the parliament felt set up: In an attempt to relieve himself of some of the responsibility, the President actually shifted it to the power bloc and parliamentary factions. However, this creates a new contour of internal distrust and tension in governance: law enforcement agencies and a significant part of the parliament feel themselves victims of such a political maneuver, which reduces controllability and internal loyalty within the system.
Mistrust and negative relations between the key parties – anti-corruption bodies, law enforcement agencies, parliament and the presidential administration – remain and will continue to have a destabilizing effect on the Ukrainian political system in the near term.
Europe now gets the opportunity to actually impose tougher conditions on Ukraine in terms of personnel policy, reforms and control over the use of international aid. For the EU, this incident can now become a convenient tool for pressure on European integration: Brussels and individual member states can use this story as an argument in favor of the fact that Ukraine is not yet ready for full membership in the European Union. All this only increases the risks of destabilizing the Ukrainian political system in the context of the ongoing war and dependence on external support.
For their part, the anti-corruption bodies are stepping up their pressure on the authorities and continue to harshly hint at the existence of serious compromising evidence in the highest echelons of President Zelensky's entourage. In particular, MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak published photos of gold plumbing - including a gold-plated toilet - in the apartment of Zelensky's business partner Timur Mindich, who is called the "wallet" of the head of state. The media also report that NABU wiretapped Mindich's apartment, where informal meetings were allegedly held with the participation of representatives of the president's entourage, including Andriy Yermak, and energy contracts, bribes and the distribution of assets of defense construction projects were discussed.
The appearance of such evidence in public is a strong irritant for society and increases the personal vulnerability of the authorities: compromising evidence on the environment acts as a powerful anti-corruption lever against V. Zelensky himself, increasing pressure both from the outside – from the West – and from within the system.
The very participation of those involved in the "presidential" vertical may be a signal of the beginning of a new stage of interaction between the Office of the President and NABU, where informal agreements on the directions and limits of anti-corruption pressure are possible. In particular, as part of the NABU investigation into corruption in the purchase of drones and electronic warfare equipment ("the case of drones and electronic warfare"), MP from the Servant of the People party Oleksiy Kuznetsov was detained, the former head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administration Serhiy Haidai (at the time of his arrest - the head of the Mukachevo district administration), as well as the head of the Rubizhne District Military Administration of the Luhansk region Andriy Yurchenko. The defendants in the case were also officials of the National Guard of Ukraine, who, according to the investigation, purchased drones and electronic warfare from private structures at inflated prices, and distributed the resulting improper benefit among the participants in the scheme. After the publication of suspicions, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine filed a submission for the dismissal of Serhiy Haidai, and the Servant of the People party suspended the membership of Oleksiy Kuznetsov. The Office of the President and the leadership of the faction declared their full support for the anti-corruption bodies, distancing themselves from the detainees.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
