The diplomatic and military-political situation around the war in Ukraine has entered a particularly tense phase of escalation and pressure.
Against the backdrop of the lack of meaningful progress in peace talks between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, the United States is taking a pause in the peace track, allowing the conflict to develop without active interference. This is expressed both in the freezing of initiatives for new sanctions against Moscow and in the gradual curtailment of military assistance to Ukraine. Despite the presence of the sanctions bill in the Senate and the support of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, the White House signaled that it does not intend to force its adoption, leaving the instrument of sanctions pressure under the personal control of the President.
In general, the situation around the war in Ukraine is moving towards escalation. Following the talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on June 2 in Istanbul, it can be stated that the negotiation process is moving very difficultly, but over the months of peaceful efforts of the Trump administration, noticeable progress has nevertheless been achieved: the parties have begun a systematic dialogue, presented their official memorandums with clearly fixed conditions. However, with all this, neither the political elites nor the most active segments of society in Ukraine and Russia have yet demonstrated their readiness to mutual concessions, without which it is impossible to achieve sustainable peace.
The United States at this stage does not see real conditions for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, believing that the parties have not yet reached the limit of exhaustion.
The approach of the administration of US President Donald Trump to the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, in general, increasingly demonstrates the emerging strategy of limited participation, expressed in three key areas: military, political and moral. At the military level, there is a reduction in direct commitments: arms supplies are being reviewed, and sanctions mechanisms are becoming flexible and bilaterally directed. Politically, the United States is abandoning the role of the leading coordinator of coalition efforts, delegating the initiative to potential direct negotiations with the Kremlin outside institutional formats. At the discourse level, the concepts of aggression and defense are blurred: the conflict is interpreted as a "struggle between two sides," each of which is responsible for the continuation of hostilities. This position allows Washington to minimize foreign policy costs and maintain strategic flexibility.
The most likely scenario until the fall of 2025 remains inertial: hostilities and negotiations continue in parallel, but without a decisive result. Washington proceeds from the fact that only tactical changes at the front or a political reorientation of the parties can form the basis for directive negotiations. considering them as instruments of negotiation bargaining.
- Peace talks.
On June 2, 2025, at the talks in Istanbul, Ukraine and Russia presented memorandums that, in fact, reproduce the previous ultimatum positions and almost completely contradict each other.
In Ukrainian , there is an emphasis on a ceasefire without preconditions, the release of prisoners, the return of deported children, international security guarantees, maintaining the course towards NATO and the EU, and also does not recognize any territorial losses.
In Russia , there is a demand for the recognition of the annexed territories, the neutrality of Ukraine, the rejection of NATO, restrictions on the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the recognition of the Russian language, the lifting of sanctions, etc.
These documents demonstrate that there are no points of contact between the parties to the conflict, and rapprochement is possible only at the level of leaders under external pressure.
That is, the June 2 negotiations did not bring the positions of the Russian Federation and Ukraine closer at all. But the parties reached a number of humanitarian agreements: the exchange of the bodies of 6,000 dead servicemen, the exchange of prisoners of war on the principle of "all for all" seriously wounded and prisoners under the age of 25, the creation of a permanent commission to organize exchanges without the need for additional negotiations.
All this is an insignificant result from the point of view of a political settlement. But this is a demonstration of a process that covers up the lack of political progress.
It is important to note that before the official part of the talks, an informal meeting was held between the heads of delegations - Rustem Umerov and Vladimir Medinsky, which lasted about two and a half hours. The content of this meeting is not disclosed (perhaps there were threats from the Russian Federation or, on the contrary, there were attempts to negotiate - it is unknown), but its duration and the absence of interpreters indicate the seriousness of the issues under discussion. An informal meeting was, in fact, real negotiations. And the official part is more of a formal, public procedure.
Despite the divergence of positions, negotiations continue. The parties publicly talk about "success", although, in fact, nothing serious has been agreed. That is, the process continues, although there are no results yet. Both sides have an interest in creating this public appearance of movement, success, and desire for peace.
But Ukraine and Russia have almost exhausted the "diplomatic backlash" of painless and safe actions and decisions that do not require significant compromises with each other and are entering a decisive phase of negotiations – bargaining. Further preservation of the negotiation process, especially the achievement of success in it, requires fundamental political decisions and mutual compromises, which will entail multifaceted political consequences.
The documentary fixation of positions also has a number of negative consequences. Now it will be extremely difficult to change the declared positions and make the necessary deep compromises. After all, each time this will give rise to fierce disputes within Ukraine and Russia regarding the expediency and balance of concessions, accusations of national betrayal.
The parties are trying to reach the level of a meeting of leaders. Ukraine insists on a meeting of the leaders of the countries of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and the United States. And this is logical, in this part of the V. demands, V.Zelensky is absolutely logical. There is a growing awareness that without a direct meeting of the presidents, the issue will not move. Political decisions, compromises, exchanges are needed. Technical delegations cannot make such decisions.
A third round of negotiations is possible only after Russia completes the phase of revenge on Ukraine for conducting Operation Web, but it will be very difficult. Obviously, without direct pressure and mediation from the United States and other participants, this extremely fragile diplomatic track risks falling apart in the near stages.
2. On the eve of the talks in Istanbul, on June 1, Ukraine carried out Operation Web, a sudden and massive strike on the strategic aviation of the Russian Federation on its territory. During the operation, the SBU used more than 100 FPV drones, which were secretly delivered to targets in trucks and then remotely launched, which made it possible to hit strategic targets without the direct participation of manned aircraft.
As a result of the attack , according to various estimates, from 13 to 41 strategic aircraft were destroyed or damaged (up to 34% of the entire fleet of strategic aviation of the Russian Federation), the estimated cost of losses is more than $ 7 billion. This strike affected one of the components of Russia's nuclear triad. In the context of limited production of such vehicles and logistical constraints, this is a serious blow to Russia's nuclear triad, demonstrating its vulnerability.
Drone strikes were carried out on bases where strategic bombers are stationed - in particular, Tu-95 and Tu-160 aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons. Four (according to some sources - five) strategic airfields were hit: "Belaya" (Irkutsk region), "Olenya" (Murmansk region), "Diaghilevo" (Ryazan region), "Ivanovo" (Ivanovo region), (According to some sources - also "Ukrainka" in the Amur region).
Operation Web has changed the perception of the capabilities of the Ukrainian special services and new technologies in the war in general. In this way, drones can be covertly delivered in trucks (or other vehicles) and launched from places where they are not expected. This opens up the potential for similar methods of delivering and launching drones from other vehicles, including rail trains and sea containers, etc., which could theoretically make it possible to hit targets anywhere in the world, with appropriate training and stealth.
Some European politicians, such as the head of EU diplomacy Kaja Kallas, noted that Operation Web "rewrites military history" and changes the nature of modern warfare, demonstrating Ukraine's innovative approach. NATO also said that the armies of the West have a lot to learn from Ukraine after this operation, calling it a "real Trojan horse" and recognizing the "creativity" of the Ukrainian side.
The operation had, first of all, political significance, to strengthen Kyiv's position in the eyes of Western partners and cause a new surge of support within Ukrainian society - similar to the effect of the counteroffensives in the summer of 2023 and the strike on the Crimean bridge, and most importantly, the entry of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region on the territory of the Russian Federation.
In general, Ukraine has demonstrated that it is capable of hitting deeply echeloned and well-protected facilities of the Russian Federation with the help of inexpensive and massive means.
At the same time, Operation Web further escalated the military conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. It is worth noting that on the eve of this operation, on May 31, a section of the railway track was damaged in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation as a result of an explosion. During the incident, Russian civilians were killed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone, complaining about this very case - an attack on a train, and not on military facilities. This is due to the fact that the deaths of civilians create a politically uncomfortable situation for the United States, reducing the likelihood of a harsh reaction from Washington in the event of retaliatory strikes by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian cities.
In fact, the Ukrainian attack weakened Russia's starting position in the negotiations, demonstrating Ukraine's initiative and ability to deliver sensitive blows. At the same time, this attack may have resulted in a lengthy informal meeting of the heads of the delegations of Ukraine and Russia before the start of the talks (most likely, new Russian threats were transmitted), after which the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, flew to Washington to enlist the support of the White House and Congress (his trip can hardly be called successful).
The attack was seen as a means of influencing the position of the United States, in particular, President Donald Trump. Donald Trump, who previously stated that "President of Ukraine V. Zelensky no longer has cards."
But as a result, the United States perceived Operation Web in a detached manner. The White House pointedly stressed that President Trump was not informed about Ukraine's actions. And although Washington did not directly condemn Ukraine, it clearly demonstrated its displeasure with the attack on the Russian Federation.
Ukraine did not take into account that this strike affected the nuclear balance between Russia and the United States. Therefore , the West, including the United States, was forced to distance itself from this operation of Ukraine so as not to create a situation in which it would be possible to interpret its actions as an attack on the Russian nuclear triad, which could lead to an escalation of the nuclear conflict.
The US President's Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg (the most loyal to Ukraine), said that Ukraine carried out a "very brave attack" against Russian military airfields, but this increases the risk of an escalation of the conflict.
"The level of risk increases significantly. I mean what happened this weekend. People should understand that this is about national security. When you attack part of an adversary's national survival system, which is their triad, the nuclear triad, it means that your level of risk goes up because you don't know how they're going to respond. You're not sure. And that's exactly what they did," Kellogg said.
The reaction of US President Donald Trump reflects this position of distancing: he spoke in the spirit of "giving fighting children a chance to sort it out," which symbolizes the refusal to actively intervene and support Ukraine in the conflict.
Against this background, the US administration has redirected key components of anti-drone systems, originally intended for Ukraine, to the needs of US troops in the Middle East.
But at the same time, Ukraine continues to use drone attacks and active cyber operations against the Russian Federation, seeking to damage the Russian economy, the military-industrial complex and logistics, as well as demoralize the enemy. Such leaks can provide Ukraine with critical information about weapons designs, production facilities, supply chains, and vulnerabilities.
3. Massive shelling of Ukraine.
The continued distancing of the West, especially the United States, creates the conditions for Russia to launch retaliatory strikes against Ukraine without serious consequences and pressure. The main goal of Russian strikes on Ukraine is not only symbolic revenge for drone attacks (including Operation Web), but also the strategic destruction of key infrastructure. First of all, we are talking about military-industrial production - facilities related to the production of drones, missiles and ammunition, as well as energy and logistics. The strikes are aimed at undermining the defense potential, destabilizing the economy and provoking a mass outflow of the population.
So on the night of June 6, the Russian Federation launched the first massive revenge strike (for Operation Web) on Ukraine using missiles and drones. The Armed Forces of Ukraine said that Russia fired 407 drones and 44 missiles on the territory of Ukraine. The main blow fell on Kyiv and the western regions of Ukraine. As a result of the attack in the capital of Ukraine, three people were killed. that on the night of June 6, Russia struck "almost all of Ukraine." In particular, Volyn, Lviv, Ternopil, Kyiv, Sumy, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy and Chernihiv regions came under attack. The Russian Federation attacked Ukraine with ballistics, air- and ground-based cruise missiles, as well as a large number of attack UAVs and simulator drones. Ukrainian air defense forces were able to shoot down up to 30 missiles and up to 200 drones.
On the night of June 10, 2025, Russia carried out a second massive attack on the territory of Ukraine. The main blows fell on Kyiv, the Kyiv region and Odessa, there were also reports of explosions in the Dnipropetrovsk and Chernihiv regions. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, 315 drones were fired at the country overnight, of which 250 were Iranian-type Shahed, as well as 7 missiles, including two North Korean-made ballistic missiles. In Kyiv, residential buildings, warehouses, urban infrastructure facilities, and cars were damaged. Destruction and fires were recorded in seven districts of the city: Desnyanskyi, Obolonskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, Solomianskyi, Podilskyi, Darnytskyi, Holosiivskyi. For the capital, this was one of the largest shelling during the full-scale war.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the attack one of the largest during the war, stressing that the diplomatic efforts of world leaders have not yet been able to stop Russian aggression. "Russian missile and shahed strikes are louder than the attempts of the United States and others in the world to force Russia to peace. It's already night, instead of a ceasefire, there are massive strikes by Shaheds, cruise missiles and ballistics." - said V. Zelensky. He called for tougher and more active action from the United States, Europe and other countries, rather than silence. The President noted that the reaction of the world should be not only statements that the Kremlin ignores, but also concrete steps to increase pressure on the Russian Federation. This statement is a clear continuation of his strategy aimed at increasing public pressure on the West, in particular the United States and Europe, to restore assistance to Ukraine.
4. Military operations.
At the front, Russian troops are developing a new offensive in several directions, its pace is extremely high: In May, the Russian Federation was occupied - 449 km² of Ukrainian territory - this is the worst figure since the beginning of 2025. In just a year, the Russian Federation captured 4000 km².
During the week (from June 5 to June 10, 2025), Russian troops captured about 92 more km² of Ukrainian territory and now control 113.326 km²
In the Sumy region, the Russian Federation has already occupied 196 km² and is fighting in the area of Yunakievka, Yablunivka, Vodolaga, Kondratovka, and Oleksiivka.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the main directions of the offensive will be Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. In the Sumy region, Russia is trying to create a buffer zone, after which it plans to transfer forces to the border with the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions and towards Zaporozhye.
Russian troops have recently advanced to the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk administrative boundary line northwest of Gorykhove (southeast of Novopavlivka).
In the Kupiansk direction, Russian troops attacked north of Kupyansk in the area of Holubivka and Radkivka and southeast of Kupyansk in the area of Stepova, Novoselivka and Glushkivka. Russian troops also attacked northeast of Borova in the area of Kolisnikovka, Zagryzove and Boguslavka and southeast of Borova in the direction of Chereshchyna, Olgovka and Grekivka.
In the Donetsk region.
Russian troops continued offensive operations northeast of Pokrovsk in the area of Malinovka and Mirny and in the direction of Novoekonomiche; east of Pokrovsk in the area of Mirolyubovka, Elizavetovka, Nikolaevka and Promin; southeast of Pokrovsk in the area of Lysovka; and southwest of Pokrovsk in the area of Udachne and Zvirovo
Russian troops conducted offensive operations in Chasiv Yar, southeast of Chasiv Yar in the Kurdyumovka area and south of Chasiv Yar in the direction of Belaya Gora and Predtechin.
Russian troops conducted offensive operations in the Toretsk area, north of Toretsk in the area of Dylivka and Dachne, as well as northwest of Toretsk in the area of Yablunivka, Poltavka, Popov Yar and Oleksandro-Kalynove and in the direction of Kleban-Byk.
Russian troops continued offensive operations northeast of Novopavlovka in the area of Novosergievka and Novomykolaivka, as well as in the direction of Muravka; east of Novopavlovka in the area of Kotlyarovka; and southeast of Novopavlovka in the area of Gorykhove and Bogdanovka.
Russian troops conducted offensive operations northwest of Kurakhove in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, west of Kurakhove in the Bogatyr area and southwest of Kurakhove in the Otradne area.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
Map of hostilities.
Donetsk region.
Sumy region.
