SITUATION IN UKRAINE: January 11 – 18, 2022

A new missile attack on January 14 by the Russian Federation significantly worsened the situation in the Ukrainian energy sector. Ukraine has already been subjected to 12 massive rocket attacks, in just 1 day three waves of rocket attacks were carried out, and arrivals were recorded in Kyiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, and Lviv regions. For the first time since the beginning of the war, an attack on Kyiv occurred before the announcement of an air raid. As a result of the shelling, Kharkiv and many other cities were de-energized. In particular, the engine room of the important Burshtyn TPP was hit. In the city of Dnipro, a rocket hit a residential building, and as a result one of the spans of the house collapsed completely. Currently, search and rescue operations at the site of the missile attack have been officially completed: more than 44 people were killed, about 20 were missing, and about 79 were injured.

Although the 12th missile attack was not as massive (about 57 missiles were fired) as before (when launching 70-100 missiles) when nuclear power plants were turned off and a blackout occurred over most of the country. On the other hand, the damage turned out to be more serious than in the two previous attacks (waves 11 and 10). This situation was probably because the Russian Federation involved those types of missiles that the Ukrainian air defense, despite the improvement in work, is still unable to cope with (S300/S400 missiles).

The statement by Advisor to the Office of President Alexei Arestovich that a Russian missile that hit a residential building in the city of Dnipro was intercepted by Ukrainian air defense caused a political scandal. The Ukrainian air defense command stated that they could not shoot down this type of missile (Kh-22), but the media noted at least 3 official statements that such missiles had been shot down before. After the scandal that broke out, A. Arestovich wrote a letter of resignation and the OP fired him from the position of a freelance adviser, a little later he also ended up on the Peacemaker website. In general, the statement about A. Arestovich's air defense missile being shot down was an obvious mistake because with any approach he could not know the truth (only the heads of air defense systems in the Dnipro region knew it). At the same time, responsibility for falsely voiced information often occurs unilaterally, in this case, A. Arestovich was fired. The position of not only the adviser to the OP but also the position of the air defense command was publicly discredited. The situation was used to discredit A. Arestovich and reduce his political prospects, in which certain circles in the environment of the President and the political system as a whole were interested. , and putting it on "Peacemaker" narrows the political field.

As a result of a helicopter crash in the city of Brovary, the top leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died. Among the dead were Minister Denis Monastyrsky, his first deputy Yevgeny Yenin, and State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuri Lubkovich. Currently, the investigation is considering three causes of the tragedy - this is sabotage, equipment malfunction, and violation of flight safety rules. According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmygal, the head of the national police of Ukraine Igor Klymenko will temporarily act as head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. He also noted that after discussion with the Parliament, the appointment of a new head of the department will be presented. It is possible that in the end, I. Klymenko will head the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Also, possible candidates are deputies from the Servant of the People faction A. Bakumov and S. Ionushas. Or this post can be taken by other candidates from the power bloc, especially those who managed to distinguish themselves at the front.

The situation on the Donetsk front continues to get more complicated for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The main efforts of the RF Armed Forces are now focused on the Bakhmut direction. The tensest situation is now in the area of the city of Soledar (apparently, most of the city is under the control of the Russian Federation) and the city of Bakhmut. The Russian Federation seeks to break through the defense of Ukraine along the line Siversk - Soledar - Bakhmut and reach the approaches to the city of Sloviansk and the city of Kramatorsk. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation claims that they captured the city of Soledar and the railway. station "Sol" and provide photo and video evidence, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine refutes this information.

As for the situation in other sectors of the front: in the Kupyansky and Novopavlovsky directions, the RF Armed Forces are trying to improve the tactical situation, and in Limansky, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson, they are on the defensive.

The Russian leadership appoints V. Gerasimov commander of the Russian troops in Ukraine while retaining the position of chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, which can be regarded as strengthening his position. From a political point of view, this is an attempt to strengthen the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the face of criticism and competition from Russian security officials, such as the financier of the Wagner Group E. Prigozhin. And also as a measure to improve command and control of troops for decisive military operations in 2023. Now the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation will be the head of the so-called. "special operation" against Ukraine. This means that all the resources of the Russian army and armed forces (from the nuclear triad to private military campaigns) will now be concentrated exclusively on the war with Ukraine, and this is another sign of a possible broad attack on Ukraine. Previously, the separation of these two posts demonstrated that the Russian Federation has interests in other areas in other regions.

It is obvious that in the Russian Federation, the resource potential is higher and they are counting on a protracted conflict there. Therefore, it is extremely important for Ukraine in the coming months to seize the initiative at the front and demonstrate significant success. And in this regard, arms supplies from allied countries play an important role. To a large extent, the situation at the front and the further possibility of the advancement of Ukrainian troops will depend on the intensity of the supply of weapons by the allied countries. Currently, the supply of Western armored vehicles to Ukraine has intensified, which is associated with the threat of a new large-scale Russian offensive, as well as the exhaustion of Soviet weapons stocks in Ukraine and its allies. On January 20, at the Ramstein base, I plan to discuss the supply of Leopard tanks. Britain has already announced the transfer of 14 Challenger heavy tanks to Ukraine. The Federal Republic of Germany is also pushing for a similar decision to provide Leopard-2 tanks from its stocks or permissions for their supplies by other countries. Based on the statement of the Ukrainian military command, Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks for an effective counter-offensive. And the FRG will likely permit the supply of Leopard tanks from the stocks of other armies. But delivery from German stocks can only be carried out by the beginning of next year. So far, we are talking about relatively small numbers of tanks - it can be several dozen. But what is important is the creation of a precedent.

Military situation

Combat actions.

The situation in the Kharkiv region: without significant changes.

In Donbas: The Russian army is advancing in the Bakhmut, Avdiivka directions. The tensest situation at the front now is the city of Soledar, Klishchiivka, Controversial, Bakhmutivka, and the city of Bakhmut itself. In the summary of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the city of Soledar is mentioned in the list of places that were subjected to shelling. Some commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that the Ukrainian units left the city of Soledar, but the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar said that the fighting for the city continues, and the speaker of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhiy Cherevaty also reported this.

The attacks of the RF Armed Forces were repulsed in the area of the settlements of Bilogorivka in the Luhansk region. In the Donetsk region attacks were repelled - in the areas of the settlements of Verkhnekamenske, Krasnopolivka, Spirne, Sil, Klischiivka, Novobakhmutivka, Velyka Novosilka, Prechystivka, Krasnogorivka, Peremoha, Novomykhailivka, Vodyane, Mayorsk, and Maryinka.

The situation in the South direction: no significant changes.

Black Sea-Azov direction: Russia brought 6 ships with 30 "Caliber" to the Black Sea.

Combat map

 

The internal situation in the country.

As a result of a helicopter crash in the city of Brovary, the top leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died.

On January 18, in the city of Brovary, Kyiv region, next to the building of a kindergarten, a Super Puma helicopter, which Ukraine received from France, fell and crashed. These helicopters are used by the Ministry of the Interior, including the State Emergency Service.

As a result of a plane crash, the top leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs died. Among the dead were Minister Denis Monastyrsky, his first deputy Yevgeny Yenin, and State Secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuri Lubkovich. According to the State Emergency Service, as a result of the accident, 14 people died, including 1 child. Of these, 9 were on board the helicopter. 25 people, of which 11 children were injured. The head of the Kyiv regional administration, Alexei Kuleba, also said that an apartment building was hit during the disaster.

The deceased D. Monastyrsky has headed the Ministry of Internal Affairs since 2021, it is noted that the Minister of Internal Affairs himself rarely used a service helicopter. It is known that on this day the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, D. Monastyrsky, flew on official business " to one of the hot spots that exist in our country ." Yury Ignat, the spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that the cause of the helicopter crash is still unknown. A state commission will be created to establish the causes of the plane crash in Brovary.

The authorities do not rule out that it could have been enemy sabotage. But in general, there is a high probability that the cause of the emergency in Brovary could be a technical malfunction and weather conditions, due to fog, and the pilot could lose control. Witnesses of the disaster report that before falling, the helicopter made several circles over the city center. Versions are also voiced that the helicopter was on fire when it fell (the reliability of this has not yet been established). Advisor to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Anton Gerashchenko notes that the investigation will establish whether the incident was the result of sabotage: " The causes of the tragedy are being established by the investigators. Whether it was a sabotage, a technical malfunction, a violation of flight safety rules, we will soon find out .” That is, at present, the investigation is considering three causes of the tragedy - this is sabotage, equipment malfunction, and violation of flight safety rules.

According to the Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmygal, the head of the national police of Ukraine Igor Klymenko will temporarily act as head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. " The government has appointed Igor Klymenko Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs - Head of the National Police of Ukraine. And entrusted him with the duties of the Minister of Internal Affairs," the Prime Minister wrote on Telegram. He also noted that the Ministry of the Interior is one of the key links in the country's security, so the necessary protocols are in place to keep all processes manageable. After discussion with the Parliament, the appointment of a new head of the department will be presented. It is possible that in the end, I. Klymenko will head the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Also, possible candidates are deputies from the Servant of the People faction A. Bakumov and S. Ionushas. Or this post can be taken by other candidates from the power bloc, especially those who managed to distinguish themselves at the front.

Shelling of critical infrastructure.

On January 14, the Russian Federation launched another (already 12th) massive missile attack on Ukraine. During the day, 57 missile strikes and three air strikes (meaning tactical aviation) were carried out. Of these, 41 missiles were from the category of high-precision and guided missiles. APU shot down 26 of these missiles. In total, there were three waves of missile attacks during the day, arrivals were in the Kyiv region (hitting an energy facility), Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv (industrial facilities). Explosions were also reported in Dnepropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kharkiv, Lviv, and Kyiv regions. Kharkiv and many other cities turned out to be de-energized. The hit was recorded on an infrastructure facility in Kyiv. In Ivano-Frankivsk. Odesa and Vinnytsia regions also had attacks on energy facilities, and the city of Kharkiv and many other cities turned out to be de-energized.

For the first time since the beginning of the war, an attack on Kyiv occurred before the announcement of an air raid. S-400 or S-300 missile systems hit Kyiv. Presumably, they could also fire a rocket from the Iskander complex. The Ukrainian air defense system practically cannot shoot down both types of missiles.

The heaviest consequences of shelling are in the city of Dnipro. There, a rocket hit a residential building, as a result of which one entrance completely collapsed. Currently, search and rescue operations at the site of the missile attack have officially been completed: more than 44 people have died, about 20 are missing, and about 79 are injured. The area in the city of Dnipro, where the arrival was, was completely de-energized and disconnected from life support systems.

Due to shelling, emergency shutdowns are introduced in most regions. The day after the massive strike, consumption limits for all areas were lowered. Emergency shutdowns operated in Kyiv, Odesa, and the Dnipro. In Kharkiv and the region, after repair work, it was possible to power all consumers, but they have not yet returned to stabilization outages in the city. Summing up the results of the attack, DTEK said that hard days, and possibly weeks, await the Ukrainians in terms of providing electricity. "Unfortunately, there has been a significant decrease in a generation. Partly as a preparation for shelling, but because the damage was significant, we need to prepare for hard days, and possibly weeks, to be able to partially restore what was damaged," explained Dmitry Sakharuk, Executive Director of DTEK. Minister of Energy Herman Galushchenko warned that the coming days will be difficult in the energy sector. Ukrenergo expects a decrease in consumption due to warming weather, while the energy system remains in significant deficit, especially in the evening. Due to exceeding consumption limits, emergency shutdowns have been introduced in the following regions: Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Cherkasy regions.

Although the 12th missile attack was not as massive (about 57 missiles were fired) as before (when launching 70-100 missiles) when nuclear power plants were turned off and a blackout occurred over most of the country. On the other hand, the damage turned out to be more serious than in the two previous attacks (waves 11 and 10). This situation was probably because the Russian Federation involved those types of missiles that the Ukrainian air defense, despite the improvement in work, is still unable to cope with (S300/S400 missiles).

The scandal around the statement of the Advisor to the Office of President A. Arestovich.

Aleksey Arestovich, the adviser to the Office of the President, said that the Kh-22 missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defense, after which the projectile fell on a multi-storeyed building. This caused a wave of indignation in the Ukrainian information space. Then the air defense command denied this version. And they said that they were not able to shoot down this type of missile (X-22) (according to the military, only Western-made air defense systems that have not yet been delivered to Ukraine can do this). But the media noted at least 3 official statements that such missiles had been shot down before. After the scandal that broke out, A. Arestovich wrote a letter of resignation and the OP fired him from the post of freelance adviser.

On the whole, A. Arestovich's statement was an obvious mistake, because, with any approach, he could not know the truth (only the leaders of the air defense systems in the Dnipro region knew it). At the same time, responsibility for falsely voiced information often occurs unilaterally, in this case, A. Arestovich was fired. The position of not only the adviser to the OP but also the position of the air defense command was publicly discredited. The situation was used to discredit A. Arestovich and reduce his political prospects, in which certain circles in the environment of the President and the political system as a whole were interested. is confirmed, and listing it on the "Peacemaker" narrows the political field.

Public opinion.

According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) (December 4-27, 2022), the dynamics of trust in the main social institutions are as follows:

• In Ukraine, they trust the Armed Forces of Ukraine - 96%; in 2021 this figure was - 72%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 96%; in 2021 +60%

• President of Ukraine - 84%; in 2021 - 27%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 80%; in 2021(-23%)

• Volunteers - 84%; in 2021 -68%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 81%; in 2021(+57%)

• ordinary people in their locality - 71%; in 2021 -63%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 62%; in 2021(+52%)

• SBU - 63%; in 2021 - 29%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 54%; in 2021( -7%)

• National Police -58 %; in 2021. - thirty%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 45%; in 2021(-14%)

• Ukrainian media -57 %; in 2021. - 32%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 43%; in 2021( -7%)

• To the Government of Ukraine -52 %; in 2021. - fourteen%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 33%; in 2021(-46%)

• IDPs - 52%; The balance of trust-distrust is + 41%;

• Churches - 44%; in 2021 - 51%. The balance of trust-distrust is + 22%; in 2021(+27%)

• Verkhovna Rada - 35%; in 2021 - eleven%. The balance of trust-distrust is +2%; in 2021(-56%)

• Courts - 25%; The balance of trust-distrust is (-9%)

• Prosecutors - 21%; The balance of trust-distrust is (-11%)

• Russian media - 1%; in 2021 - 3%. The balance of trust-distrust is (-92%); in 2021 (-76%).

In general, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (96%) continue to enjoy the greatest confidence in Ukraine. Also during the war, the level of trust in the authorities increased significantly. Trust in the President increased by +57%, in the Government by +38%, and in the Verkhovna Rada by +24%. In the case of the Parliament, in general, the indicators of trust are not high. 34% of citizens also continue to distrust BP.

2. There is a significant improvement in trust in law enforcement agencies - the SBU and the National Police. At the same time, trust in the Church has somewhat decreased (-7%), probably due to the events that are currently taking place around the UOC. To a greater extent, citizens of Ukraine do not trust the courts -34%, and prosecutors - 32%. And also, traditionally, Ukrainian society most of all does not trust the Russian media - 93%, it is expected that distrust has increased this year.

The situation around the UOC.

The crisis in relations between the authorities and the UOC is intensifying, it is likely that the authorities have formed several demands on the Church, including the rejection of any canonical ties with the ROC, moreover, public ones, as well as the change of part of the higher clergy of the Church, with whom, apparently the authorities cannot find understanding. One of these days, the state interdepartmental commission on the use of the property of the lower territory of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra by the Ukrainian Orthodox Church will begin its work. Earlier, the Head of the Rada Committee on Humanitarian Policy, Nikita Poturaev, said that the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra could be completely taken away from the UOC. The State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience, headed by Viktor Yelensky, "will work in the appropriate direction," N. Poturaev added.

The legal department of the UOC published a statement on the removal of biased experts from the commission for the examination of the Charter of the UOC and the involvement of international religious scholars in its work. The rector of the Kyiv Theological Academy and Seminary, Archbishop of Bilogorodka Sylvestr, regarding the status of the UOC, said that this is a difficult issue. And it is unlikely that it will be finally resolved shortly. Because the UOC itself cannot resolve this issue without the involvement of other Local Churches.

UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Keris expressed concern about restrictions on religious freedom in Ukraine, speaking at the Security Council, the UN website said. " We call on the Ukrainian authorities to ensure that any such searches of premises and places of worship are carried out in full compliance with international law, that those facing criminal charges are entitled to a fair trial, and that any criminal sanctions are compatible with the rights to freedom of opinion. , their free expression and religion," she said. Kerris also " shared the concerns of the Office of Human Rights that two bills recently introduced in the Ukrainian Parliament could undermine the right to freedom of religion or belief, enshrined in Article 18 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights ." We are talking about bills that could ban the activities of the UOC in Ukraine.

The ongoing pressure on the UOC is probably because the Office of the President seeks to create a nationwide Orthodox Church in Ukraine, which should be loyal and integrated into the political structure of society. To implement this issue, as a platform for the state church, the UOC is not sufficiently loyal to the authorities.

The situation around Ukraine.

Negotiation process.

The President of Ukraine is also talking with foreign colleagues about the Ukrainian "peace formula". In this regard, it is reported that this winter (presumably on February 24 - the anniversary of the invasion) some special summit "in the name of peace" will be held, where this formula will be discussed. Recall that the "peace formula" of V. Zelensky implies, in fact, Russian capitulation - the withdrawal of Russian troops from all the territory of Ukraine within the borders of 1991, the payment of reparations, and the creation of a special tribunal for war crimes of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.

For its part, the Russian Federation puts forward counter demands to Ukraine - to leave the parts of the regions now controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the annexation of which the Russian Federation announced in September 2022. In particular, Russian President V. Putin held an online meeting of the government, during which they also discussed "new regions of the Russian Federation." He said that despite the hostilities, now the Russian Federation must solve the problems of "new regions" and support residents, so in the "new regions" it is necessary to ensure the flow of investments, involve in the implementation of national projects, and also support local businesses.

Turkey continues to advance its interests against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. The country is already a food and gas hub, and also claims to be the main mediator between the parties to the conflict (Russia and Ukraine). Turkey intends to promote the idea of "local ceasefires" in Ukraine. The official representative of Turkish President R. Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin, said that, in their opinion, neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine has the military means to win the war. While it is unlikely that the belligerents are ready to make peace in the coming months, the brutal price of the fighting may soon force them to agree to local truces on separate sectors of the front. He also noted that " Russia wants to be respected as a major player and not have NATO in their backyard ", and " Ukraine needs security guarantees from Russia and is not going to join NATO ". Any peace plan for Ukraine will be doomed to failure if it does not take into account the opinion of Russia. The world community does not have sufficient desire to create conditions for "serious negotiations" between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Europe and the United States should also participate in possible negotiations to resolve the situation in Ukraine. The representative of Turkey voiced a rather unpleasant scenario for Ukraine. Namely, if the conflict drags on, the allied countries may get tired of hostilities and the public will declare their unwillingness to support Ukraine. Which, in principle, is not excluded by the end of the year, if the situation on the battlefield does not change dramatically in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Weapon deliveries.

Britain has already announced the transfer of 14 Challenger heavy tanks to Ukraine, pushing Germany towards similar decisions. And the FRG will likely give permission not to supply Leopard tanks from the stocks of other armies. It is known that in 2022 the number of Leopard 2s produced exceeded 3,500 units, more than 2,500 of which are listed as being in service. The main operators of the Leopard 2 are Germany, Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Hungary, Indonesia, Norway, Canada, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Turkey.

The FRG stated that the delivery from German stocks to Ukraine could be carried out only by the beginning of next year. So far, we are talking about relatively small numbers of tanks - it can be several dozen. But what is important is the creation of a precedent. Moreover, based on the statement of the Ukrainian military command, Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks for an effective counter-offensive.

Canada is donating another 200 armored vehicles as military aid to Ukraine.

Bloomberg has calculated how many and what weapons have been handed over to Ukraine since the February 24 invasion began.

• 410 Soviet-era tanks from Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and other post-Soviet countries.

• 250 Soviet-made infantry fighting vehicles from post-Soviet countries

• 300 armored personnel carriers M113 and 250 M117

• 925 mine-protected vehicles, including 440 American M1224 MaxxPros, 90 Australian Bushmasters, and several British Wolfhounds and Mastiffs,

• 1,250 American-made Humvee highly mobile multipurpose wheeled vehicles.

• 300 towed howitzers, more than 210 M777 155mm howitzers, and 72 US 105mm howitzers;

• 95 MLRS units, including 38 HIMARS systems

• and more than 40 Soviet-era 122mm multiple rocket launchers from Poland and the Czech Republic.

• Of the air defense systems, 37 German Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems are listed;

• 8 NASAMS batteries, one American and one German Patriot missile battery;

• 6 Strela-10Ms missile systems from the Czech Republic;

• 6 Stormer missile systems from the UK; several other anti-aircraft missile systems from Slovakia, Germany, Spain, France, and Poland.

• From aviation - 14, Soviet-made Su-25 attack aircraft purchased by NATO countries from Bulgaria and delivered to Ukraine;

• 4 Su-25s from North Macedonia;

• 20 Mi-17 helicopters, which were originally intended for Afghanistan, were transferred to the United States;

• 11 Soviet-made helicopters from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Latvia;

• three British Westland Sea Kings;

• six Russian-made Kamov helicopters from Portugal;

• more than 30 Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey,

• as well as one drone1 each from Lithuania and Poland; hundreds of American Switchblade ammunition;

• 415 reconnaissance drones.

 

Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics