Авторы публикации
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have achieved an operational breakthrough and are retaining a tactical military initiative, trying to transform it into a strategic one until significant masses of mobilized Russians arrive at the front (November-December). During the week, Ukrainian troops continued their successful counter-offensive in the main 2 directions - on the border of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions (near the cities of Svatove and the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration) and in the north of the Kherson region (near the cities of Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka). In general, over the past few days, Ukraine has advanced 20 km in the Svatove direction (the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the city of Liman and its environs) and 30 km. in the Beryslav direction (the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the village of Davydiv Brid and 17 other small settlements in this area).
The retreat of Russian troops from the city of Liman, as well as the overall successful advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson region of the Russian army, led to an intensification of the military-political crisis within the Russian Federation and disagreements in the leadership. Serious personnel changes are brewing in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and, probably, the resignation of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, the leadership of the General Staff.
Against the background of the defeats of the Russian troops at the front, new initiatives are emerging to resume the negotiation process between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Also, the Ukrainian issue is becoming an important element of the autumn elections to the US Congress. In particular, the founder of Tesla and Spacex, Elon Musk, published a poll on Twitter with suggestions about the “probable”, in his opinion, the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which contrasts with the policy of the White House. It is important to note that Elon Musk was a member of the Council of Entrepreneurs under Donald Trump and, possibly, is associated with the US Republican Party, and this statement can be perceived as an attack on the “Ukrainian policy” of D. Biden and the Democratic Party as a whole.
In addition, the OPEC decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day at once, which was promoted by Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation, means that oil prices will continue to stay at a high level, and may even rise. It can also be perceived as an attempt to influence the electoral mood of Americans in the run-up to the elections, inclining them towards the Republican Party. The OPEC decision is expected to come into effect in November, and the US midterm elections will be held on November 8, so it is not known exactly how much this will affect the course of the election campaign.
For its part, the Russian Federation reported that the issue of ownership of new regions by Russia would not be discussed at the talks with Ukraine. Russia is ready to negotiate, but already taking into account the fact that Ukraine has lost 4 regions. In response to the attempted annexation of territories, Volodymyr Zelensky approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), which stated the impossibility of negotiating with Russian President V. Putin, which, however, does not mean an absolute rejection of them. Ukraine has also officially applied for NATO membership.
At the same time, Ukraine is trying to stop the possible negative consequences associated with the right-wing coalition coming to power in Italy, as well as changing the position of neutral countries such as India or China. The President of Ukraine is negotiating with the leaders of these countries, it is difficult to assess their success so far.
The Russian Federation actually completed the process of annexation of Ukrainian territories, which was supported by the Constitutional Court, the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the Federation Council. It was obviously important for V. Putin to draw the entire Russian political system into the war against Ukraine and the West, represented by political parties (in the State Duma), regional elites and oligarchs (in the Federation Council) and bureaucracy (the government and the Constitutional Court). After V. Putin signed the relevant law on the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories, they are already enshrined in the Russian constitution. Thus, V. Putin is also trying to insure himself against possible persecution in the future, since now it will be difficult to withdraw these territories from the Russian Federation under Russian law due to public opinion. And without this, it will be difficult for any next president of the Russian Federation to persecute or criticize the actions of V. Putin in Ukraine. The signing of the laws on annexation is already the last political tool of the Russian Federation, annexation and mobilization were supposed to compensate for the military defeat of the Russian Federation and criticism from within the country. Now the question arises of what Russia will do next, will it put forward a formal nuclear ultimatum to Ukraine demanding the liberation of now supposedly Russian territories. Since the acceptance of the occupied regions into the Russian Federation means that they are subject to the formal nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation.
The process of seizing / nationalizing Ukrainian assets in the annexed territories has begun (which we warned about earlier). We can talk about assets worth tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. Thus, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin instructed to transfer the Zaporizhzhia NPP under the control of Russia (the forthcoming visit of the IAEA, whose delegation will be tried to confront the “Russian” status of the plant, also played its role here). The same kind of decisions will obviously be taken on the Zaporizhzhia thermal power plant, Kakhovska hydroelectric power station, seaports and other facilities.
Most of the expenditures of the state budget of Ukraine goes to the defense of the country - 47%. Also, a significant part of it is social security -18%. Since August, revenues to the state budget have decreased by almost UAH 15 billion, due to a reduction in revenues from international donors.
In this regard, the United States remains the main partner of Ukraine, in particular, it is ready to provide Ukraine with monthly financial assistance in the amount of $1.5 billion throughout the war (according to the government, Ukraine needs $3-5 billion. In addition, the United States is putting pressure on European allies with to increase aid to Ukraine.
On the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, four fuel leaks were discovered at once in the open sea. Regardless of who committed sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the consequences of this incident will be a reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe (already already reduced) and an increase in energy prices, a drop in Russian budget revenues, an acceleration in the abandonment of Russian energy sources and occupation of the market by other suppliers, correction of programs for the transition to green energy, and so on. Problems with gas in Europe will be exacerbated against the background of the fact that Gazprom can completely stop the transit of gas through Ukraine to Europe. Depending on the conclusions about the causes of the accident, this situation may cause a new round of political and military escalation between the Russian Federation and the United States with allies, or lead to an unexpected political turn.
military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to advance in the Kharkiv region and occupied the settlements of Borova and Shiykivka.
In the Donbass: Ukrainian troops established control over the city of Liman. Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking the area of Kreminna, Luhansk region. After the liberation of the settlements of Torske and the settlements of Ternove, Ukrainian troops advanced to a section of the highway near the settlements of Chervonopopivka and the settlement of Pischane, which run along the Svatovo-Kreminna road. The attack also began from the city of Seversk to the city of Lysychansk. There were battles in the area of the city of Bakhmut, the village of Vesela Dolyna, the village of Zaitseve and the village of Pervomaiske.
Situation in the South: in the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced 30 km. in the Beryslav direction (Ukrainian troops liberated the settlement of Davidov Brod and about 17 other settlements in this area) .
Black Sea-Azov direction: Odesa region continues to be subjected to shelling, as well as attacks by drones. In Crimea, Russian troops are on full combat readiness, a new motorized rifle division is being formed, and active training of the mobilized is being carried out on the peninsula.
Iranian drones are becoming a significant problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In the second half of September, Russian troops for the first time began to attack military and infrastructure facilities in Ukraine using a new weapon - Iranian-made unmanned drones. At the same time, the first cases of the use of Iranian UAVs turned out to be quite effective. For example, in Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv region, these drones hit military and infrastructure facilities. On October 5, in the city of Bila Tserkva, three infrastructure buildings were damaged as a result of a night attack by drones (according to preliminary data, they flew over 300 km and were launched from the south of the Kherson region). This is the first case of an attack by drones in the Kyiv region. Also, the RF Armed Forces used drones in the Mykolaiv region (six Shahed-136 devices).
Ukraine is now developing all possible options to prevent such attacks or minimize their consequences. Iranian drones are relatively small and fly at low altitude, evading air defenses. Ukraine receives equipment from the United States to combat Iranian drones, produced jointly with Israel.
Negotiation.
New initiatives are constantly appearing to resume the negotiation process between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which is probably connected with the interests of a certain part of the world elites. In particular, after Turkey's initiative to resume negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, Pope Francis condemned Russia's new annexation of Ukrainian territories, called for respect for the territorial value and expressed pain over the numerous victims. He addressed the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky. He called on V. Putin to stop hostilities, and V. Zelensky - to be open to negotiations.
At the same time, Ukraine once again emphasized that I do not consider it possible to negotiate with Russian President V. Putin, this decision was unanimously supported at the last meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, which was approved by President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. “ We will negotiate only with another president of Russia. There is absolutely nothing to talk about with this fanatic ,” said NSDC Secretary A. Danilov.
For its part, the Russian Federation reported that the issue of ownership of new regions by Russia would not be discussed at the talks with Ukraine. Russia is ready to negotiate, but already taking into account the fact that Ukraine has lost 4 regions.
About the founder of Tesla and Spacex, Elon Musk, posted a poll on Twitter suggesting what he believes is a “probable” end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Possible requirements for ending the war in Ukraine are as follows:
Conducting referendums in the occupied territories under the supervision of the UN.
Crimea is formally part of Russia, as it was from 1783 until Khrushchev's "mistake".
Provide water supply to the Crimea.
Ukraine remains a neutral state.
In Ukraine, such initiatives were perceived negatively. President of Ukraine V. Zelensky launched a poll on his Twitter about which Elon Musk everyone likes more - the one who supports Ukraine, or the one who supports Russia.
In response to a tweet by V. Zelensky, Elon Musk wrote: “ I am still very supportive of Ukraine, but I am convinced that a large-scale escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world .”
The White House reacted to the initiative of Elon Musk, they said that everything related to Ukraine would not be discussed without Ukraine.
" It's their decision when it comes to any diplomacy or negotiations about it. And so I leave it up to the Ukrainian people. But, you know, we're going to make sure we're there for the Ukrainians as they fight for their sovereignty. And this decision regarding their sovereignty, freedom, democracy, will be made with them ," said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
It is worth noting here that Elon Musk is both a successful world-class businessman and a leader of public opinion. He is an "icon" of the liberal technological process. And Elon Musk's statements certainly influence the minds of the younger and middle generation.
His opinion can be supported by a certain part of the business elite of the West, who are now worried that the Russian-Ukrainian war could lead to deglobalization in the world and destroy the modern liberal technological process. And hardly anyone could force I. Mask to make such statements against his will. In addition, Elon Musk was on the board of entrepreneurs under Donald Trump and works for the interests of the Republican Party, and this statement regarding the Ukrainian issue may be a preparation for the midterm elections to the US Congress.
In the future, the initiative of I. Mask may influence the public opinion of the West and the course of the political discussion on Ukraine and Russia. Perhaps I. Musk continues the processes that were started by the Pope and President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan. That is, this is an attempt to push Ukraine and Russia to negotiations. But at present, reaching agreements is not possible due to the difference in the positions of the parties and the preservation of significant military potential. The parties are very far from a possible agreement. This is precisely the reason for the absence of meetings of formal political negotiating groups and statements that they (Ukraine and the Russian Federation) are not going to negotiate in the near future. At the same time, the negotiation process continues at different levels, in particular, on gas transit, on a grain deal, on the exchange of captured persons, and so on.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky held a conversation with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and discussed food and nuclear security with him. Also, V. Zelensky held talks with the future Prime Minister of Italy, the leader of the political force "Brothers of Italy" D. Meloni. Thus, Ukraine is trying to stop the possible negative consequences associated with the right-wing coalition coming to power in Italy, as well as changing the position of neutral countries such as India or China, the success of such negotiations is still difficult to assess.
Combat map.
The situation in the occupied territories.
The process of annexation of Ukrainian territories by the Russian Federation.
On October 5, Russian President V. Putin signed laws ratifying the treaties “on the admission to Russia” of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (“DNR” and “LNR”), Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. From the same day, the agreements are considered to have entered into force.
On the eve of October 3, the State Duma unanimously ratified the agreements on the “entry” of the “DPR” and “LPR”, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions into Russia. On October 4, the Federation Council unanimously approved all four annexation treaties, and also adopted federal constitutional laws on the inclusion of four new subjects in the Russian Federation. Now it is believed that there are 89 of them in the Russian Federation.
The Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation determined the statuses of the included regions. According to the document, the “DPR”, “LPR”, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions are part of the Russian Federation in accordance with the Constitution, forming new subjects - two “republics” and two regions.
The agreements stipulate that the state language of the "DPR" and "LPR" is Russian, and the Russian Federation guarantees all peoples living on their territory the right to preserve their native language. The monetary unit in the "new subjects of the Russian Federation" will be the ruble, until December 31, the hryvnia will be allowed to be used in settlements. The “armed forces” of the “DPR” and “LPR” are included in the Russian army.
Temporary leaders are appointed to these regions within 10 days. The heads of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions will be called "governors".
It is reported that the so-called. "parliamentary elections" of all four regions will be held on the Russian single voting day in September 2023.
Those living in territories not controlled by Ukraine at the time of their “acceptance” into the Russian Federation will automatically receive Russian citizenship. An exception is made for persons who within one month (apparently from the date of official annexation) declare their desire to retain their citizenship.
The transitional period for the “integration of new entities” with Russia is valid until January 1, 2026. Until June 1, 2023, territorial bodies of federal executive bodies will be created there.
These territories will be included in the all-Russian budget from January 1, 2023, from the same date Russian budget legislation will begin to apply there.
According to Deputy Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation S. Nazarov, the adoption of new regions in the Russian Federation will ensure an increase in metallurgy by 20%, in coal - by 6%, in grain - by more than 10%. It is also planned to adopt a law on the creation of a single free economic zone in new regions of the Russian Federation, by analogy with the Crimea.
In the annexed territories, a special regime is being established for urban planning activities until January 1, 2028 (apparently, we are talking about recovery after hostilities). Until January 1, 2028, registration of rights to real estate in the annexed areas will be possible on the basis of Ukrainian documents.
V. Putin's bills on the "acceptance into Russia" of the occupied Ukrainian regions contain a clause on the border. For all four regions, the same wording goes: “ The limits of the territory will be determined by the boundaries of the territory of the “republic” (region) that existed on the day of its formation and the day it was accepted into the Russian Federation .” Judging by it, Russia believes that it will annex them within the existing administrative boundaries of the respective regions. Thus, the Russian Federation officially claims the entire territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, including that part of the territory that is now under the control of Ukraine.
Thus, the Russian Federation actually completed the process of annexation of Ukrainian territories, which was supported by both the Constitutional Court and the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the Federation Council. It was obviously important for V. Putin to draw the entire Russian political system into the war against Ukraine and the West, represented by political parties (in the State Duma), regional elites and oligarchs (in the Federation Council) and bureaucracy (the government and the Constitutional Court).
We can say that after the annexation of Ukrainian territories, as well as the successful counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops, the likelihood of a nuclear threat also increases. Although, in general, the risk of using nuclear weapons is still low, since the Russian Federation will first of all try to use the numerical advantage against Ukraine that can be achieved as a result of mobilization.
He began the process of seizing / nationalizing Ukrainian assets in the annexed territories, we can talk about tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars. So the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin instructed to transfer the Zaporizhzhia NPP under the control of Russia.
Ukraine, in response to an attempt to annex Ukrainian territories, Volodymyr Zelensky approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), which stated the impossibility of negotiating with Russian President V. Putin and the need to strengthen Ukraine's defense capability.
Internal situation in Ukraine
Ukraine has applied to join NATO in an accelerated mode.
On September 30, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the country is applying to join NATO in an expedited manner. He referred to the quick accession of Finland and Sweden to the alliance. “ De facto, we have already passed our way to NATO. De facto, we have already proven interoperability with the standards of the alliance, they are real for Ukraine - real on the battlefield and in all aspects of our interaction , "-V. Zelensky. Also, President Zelensky proposed to implement proposals on security guarantees for Ukraine and all of Europe in accordance with the Kyiv Security Treaty. V. Zelensky also said that the entire territory of Ukraine would be liberated, and that Ukraine was ready for dialogue, but with another president of the Russian Federation.
For a country to join NATO, it is necessary that all member countries (30 in total) approve this expansion. A country that seeks to join the alliance is subject to rather stringent requirements - for example, legal, economic and anti-corruption reforms. One of the conditions for joining NATO is the ability and desire to contribute to security in the region.
The presidents of nine Central and Eastern European countries call on all NATO members to increase military assistance to Ukraine and supported its membership in the Alliance. The document was signed by the presidents of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. “ We reiterate our support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We do not and will never recognize Russian attempts to annex any Ukrainian territory. We call on all members of the Alliance to significantly increase military assistance to Ukraine ,” the heads of state said in a joint statement.
At the same time, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, made it clear that the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO would not be resolved quickly. “ We are committed to supporting NATO's open door policy, but how that happens is really a matter for the 30 countries that vote, as well as the country that strives .”
The probability of Ukraine joining NATO before the end of the war is extremely small, although the creation of additional / expanded formats of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO (like the Association Agreement with the EU) cannot be ruled out. In general, the application for NATO membership in an accelerated mode by the Ukrainian authorities is a kind of response to the annexation of the territories occupied by the Russian Federation. Taking into account the fact that the majority of Ukrainian citizens support Ukraine's accession to NATO. According to the latest poll, "Rating", 83% would vote for joining NATO. And the President demonstrated to the public that, contrary to Russian demands, he is promoting the implementation of this idea.
financial situation.
The total expenditures of the State Budget of Ukraine from January 01 to September 01, 2022 amounted to about UAH 1.6 trillion.
Most of the state budget expenditures (47%) go to the defense of the country. Also, a significant part of it is social security -18%.
Since August, revenues to the state budget have decreased by almost UAH 15 billion. (in August 2022, the budget received UAH 204.6 billion). In September, financial revenues to the state budget of Ukraine amounted to -190 billion UAH.
In particular:
The sale of "war bonds" gave a record low UAH 2.7 billion
NBU - purchase of bonds (hryvnia issue) for - UAH 30 billion
That is, we, as a country, attracted UAH 115 billion with all internal resources in approximately September
The share of foreign aid has decreased. If in August it was UAH 109 billion, now it is UAH 74.5 billion.
Tax and customs duties together brought only UAH 82 billion to the budget. Customs for September 2022 collected: UAH 30.1 billion. Almost the same as in August.
Budget revenues from exports in 2022 have fallen significantly, while in general, the level of Ukrainian exports has decreased by almost half compared to pre-war figures. If in January-February Ukraine exported monthly at the level of 6 billion dollars or more, now it is 3.4 billion dollars. But at the same time, exports from Ukraine to the EU exceeded the pre-war level.
The National Bank of Ukraine almost doubled the sale of foreign currency from reserves. This is evidenced by the data of the regulator. During September, the National Bank sold $2,792.1 million on the interbank foreign exchange market. While in August this figure was 1,329.7 million dollars. It is also reported that in September the National Bank bought $39.4 million. Thus, the negative balance for the first month of autumn amounted to $2,752.7 million.
Ukraine expects to receive $10 billion in international financial assistance by the end of the year. In particular, another $4.5 billion is expected from the United States and about $1.4 billion from the IMF.
At the same time, Western donors are demonstrating their readiness to provide financial assistance to Ukraine in the future. And in this regard, the United States remains the main partner of Ukraine, in particular, it is ready to provide Ukraine with monthly financial assistance in the amount of $1.5 billion throughout the war. In addition, the United States is putting pressure on European allies to increase assistance to Ukraine. The EU signed a memorandum on the provision of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 5 billion euros out of the previously promised 9 billion euros in May. From this aid package, Ukraine received 1 billion euros.
Earlier, the Ukrainian government stated that $3-5 billion of monthly assistance is needed to cover the budget deficit.
The World Bank will allocate an additional $530 million to Ukraine. The funds will be used to meet "immediate needs resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine." To date, the World Bank has mobilized almost $13 billion in emergency funding for Ukraine, including commitments and pledges from donors, of which $11 billion has been fully disbursed. According to the World Bank Regional Country Director for Eastern Europe, Arup Banerjee, Ukraine's needs for reconstruction and reconstruction over the next three years will amount to more than $100 billion, and this figure will grow as the war continues.
Regarding the budget for 2023, MP from the Servant of the People faction, Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Daniil Getmantsev said that the State Budget for the next year is a military budget with priority spending on defense and security and special there will be no discussion about it. He stressed that Ukraine finances security and defense costs at its own expense, and the state can cover social costs through loan and grant programs.
Public opinion.
According to the research of the Sociological Service "Rating", which was carried out within the framework of the project "Urgent EU support for civil society".
About a quarter of Ukrainian citizens surveyed said they were forced to change their place of residence in Ukraine during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Most of all among those who lived in the war zone* - 64%, as well as in Kyiv - 42%. A third of those who left home have already returned. 9% of the IDPs plan to return in the near future, 15% will wait. The third part intend to return, but only when the war is over. Do not plan to return - 6%.
32% of those surveyed said they suffered material losses as a result of the war. 67% - did not suffer. More than half of the inhabitants of the territories where hostilities were or are still ongoing suffered losses.
Among the losses, money was most often mentioned - 36%, housing - 23%, household appliances - 14%, 7% - lost pets, 6% - a car, 5% - production, 4% - commercial real estate.
2% - noted that housing is either destroyed, 8% - damaged, 5% do not know what condition their housing is in now. For 85%, the housing situation has not changed.
Most of those who have lost their homes plan to restore primarily at their own expense - 58%, 27% - for public funds, 12% - for the funds of international organizations, 9% - for the funds of volunteers, 7% - for the funds of relatives or charitable foundations.
Currently, among those who had a job before the war, 61% work: full-time - 36%, remotely or partially - 19%, found a new job - 6%. 37% have lost their jobs and are not working now.
The main source of income for the majority of respondents is wages (56%) and pensions (31%). 8% had income from private business, the same number received social assistance. Among those whose source of income before the war was business, only 12% noted that it continues to work fully.
More than 90% believe that Russia should compensate for the economic and infrastructural losses of Ukraine during the war. At the same time, only a third of the respondents believe in it. 14-15% expect compensation from European countries and international organizations, 10% from the USA, 9% from Ukraine. More than 70% believe in the possibility of implementation from these countries.
The survey was conducted in all regions, except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas, as well as territories where there is no Ukrainian mobile communication at the time of the survey.
The situation around Ukraine
Accident at the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
On the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, four fuel leaks were discovered at once in the open sea. Two of these four leaks are in the Swedish exclusive economic zone, and the other two damages are in the Danish economic zone. Powerful underwater explosions were registered in the area of gas leaks from Nord Stream. An accident at Nord Stream risks provoking not only an economic catastrophe, but also an ecological one. As a result of a gas pipeline leak, about 300,000 tons of methane will enter the atmosphere.
Due to the cessation of gas supply through the Nord Stream, the cost of gas in Europe immediately rose to $2,100,000 per thousand cubic meters, but already on October 4, the price fell below $1,650 per thousand cubic meters.
In Europe, began an investigation into the causes of accidents. The main version is sabotage. Also, the German authorities are concerned that what happened could be a targeted attack on the European gas infrastructure and gas markets.
In Ukraine and Poland, the authorities were accused of blowing up the pipeline of the Russian Federation. In Russia, the United States and Great Britain are accused of sabotage. The Western media have not yet put forward formalized versions of what happened at Nord Stream 2. But there are already hints that Russia could have done it.
The Pentagon claims that the United States has "absolutely no involvement" in the Nord Stream incident. This statement was made by the speaker of the US Department of Defense at a briefing. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry recalled that in February of this year, US President D. Biden promised to put an end to Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine. To which White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pieraiden stated that D. Biden did not promise to “destroy Nord Stream”, he promised to “prevent” its commissioning.
Regardless of who committed sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the consequences of this incident will be a reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe (already already reduced) and an increase in energy prices, a drop in Russian budget revenues (gas may come out of broken pipes for $2 billion). Problems with gas in Europe will be exacerbated against the background of the fact that Gazprom can completely stop the transit of gas through Ukraine to Europe.
Arms supplies and financial assistance to Ukraine.
The counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops, as well as the outcome of hostilities, mainly directly depends on the supply of weapons and financial assistance from international donors. The bulk of military and financial aid to Ukraine comes from the United States, which remains the country's most important strategic partner. Last week, the US Congress passed a government funding bill that includes $12.4 billion in aid to Ukraine.
Funds will be distributed as follows:
$4.5 billion - economic assistance fund to support the budget
$3 billion in military support for Ukraine, including military training, arms and equipment supplies, and logistics
$2.8 billion for US military operations in Europe, including mission support, intelligence operations, military pay and equipment purchases
$1.5 billion to replenish U.S. own military stockpiles dwindled by supplies to Ukraine
$0.5 billion for the production of critical replacement weapons sent to Ukraine.
At the same time, only about 20% of the new military assistance package will go directly to armaments for Ukraine, and about 35% more to support budgetary opportunities; the remaining funds will be used to strengthen the American armed forces, their operations, as well as to provide military services related to the war in Ukraine.
The White House also announced the allocation of a new military aid package to Ukraine in the amount of $625 million. The new military aid package will include:
- four HIMARS installations and ammunition;
- a thousand 155-mm RAAMS shells;
- sixteen 105-mm howitzers;
- sixteen 155-mm howitzers;
- 75 thousand 155-mm shells;
- 500 high-precision 155-mm projectiles;
- 30 thousand 120-mm mines;
– 200 MRAP MaxxPro machines;
- 200 thousand cartridges for small arms;
– jamming equipment, Claymore mines
It is worth noting that these funds significantly exceed the amounts that the United States allocated to Ukraine earlier.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
