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In general, the second half of February may pass not only under the sign of fierce hostilities but also under the sign of the unfolding of new horizons of geopolitical confrontation. New symbolic decisions are expected from the Russian leadership (February 21-22), which may concern both the conduct of the war in Ukraine and attempts to re-create a new state based on Russia and Belarus. In addition, on the anniversary of the war (February 24), Ukraine is going to raise a question before the UN General Assembly about the need to create an international tribunal and expel Russia from the UN Security Council.
Last week, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky made his second trip abroad during the war and paid an official visit to several European countries (Great Britain, France, Belgium). The visit of V. Zelensky to Europe is an attempt to speed up and expand the range of arms supplies (we are talking, first of all, about tanks and aircraft). Also, the President of Ukraine seeks to initiate negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU (next stage). Along with this, Ukraine needs the EU leaders to support V. Zelensky's "peace formula" - a ten-point plan that provides for the actual capitulation of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine's allies are now actively discussing new possible arms supplies to Ukraine. Following the results of the first day (February 14) of the meeting, the allies at the American Ramstein airbase in southwestern Germany promised Ukraine to transfer "as much ammunition as possible and as soon as possible," but no decision has yet been made on the fighters. Further, the transfer of tanks to Ukraine will be discussed. It is known that the USA, Poland, and the Czech Republic will supply tanks in addition to those already sent. Also, the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands will supply Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, and France and Italy will supply SAMP/T air defense systems. In parallel, the American media reported that the United States is preparing a new $10 billion military aid package for Ukraine on the anniversary of the Russian invasion. New weapons - such as F-16 aircraft or long-range missiles - will not be in the package. The deliveries will focus on ammunition, air defense, and spare parts. Also, there is no decision yet on the long-range ATACMS missiles requested by Ukraine.
Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a shortage of ammunition and many types of weapons, which has become especially felt against the backdrop of increased Russian attacks in the Donbas. Shortly, the allied countries and Ukraine expect a new Russian offensive. The goals of the impending offensive of the Russian Federation, according to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council A. Danilov, are the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian troops may try to encircle the city of Kharkiv.
At the front of the RF Armed Forces, attempts continue wide-scale reconnaissance in force and local offensives in five main directions - in the Kupyansky, Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiivsky, and Novopavlivsky ( Ugledar ) directions. The tensest situation in the region is the city of Bakhmut, the city of Liman, and the city of Ugledar. In the area of the city of Liman, the RF Armed Forces made efforts to move the Ukrainian troops away from the city of Liman. Kreminna is located on a major highway from north to south in the Lugansk region. In the area of the city of Bakhmut, the RF Armed Forces are trying to cut off the main supply routes for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the cities of Sloviansk and the city of Konstantynivka (near Chasiv Yar). At the same time, the transfer of reinforcements of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the city of Bakhmut is still possible through the network of field roads, therefore, shortly, Ukrainian troops will continue efforts to hold Bakhmut, although its fall in the coming weeks is a very likely scenario. In general, the RF Armed Forces are striving to secure the main supply routes and strengthen the borders in the Zaporizhzhia and Lugansk regions. Ukraine may be preparing an offensive on the Zaporizhzhia front (in the direction of Tokmak and Melitopol) to cut off the supply of Russian troops from the territory of Crimea, but most likely it can only begin after the main part of German and American tanks arrive in Ukraine. Despite a certain intensification of hostilities, the main reserves of Ukraine and the Russian Federation remain unused.
The total front line in Ukraine is approximately 1,288 km, of which the front line in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region is 192 km.
There are already signs of a new escalation of the Ukrainian-Russian war, mass provocations, or the transfer of hostilities to the territory of neighboring countries. So the US Embassy urged its citizens to urgently leave the Russian Federation; Embassy of France - the territory of Belarus. The Canadian Foreign Ministry called on its citizens to immediately leave Belarus due to the risk of arbitrary application of local laws and an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The political situation in Moldova is aggravated and, most likely, they are preparing to strengthen the power of the President, and law enforcement agencies and suppress the pro-Russian anti-Western opposition in the same way as it was previously done in Ukraine. President Maia Sandu said that Russia plans to carry out a coup d'état in Moldova. She urged to expand the capabilities of the security services and said that the Moldovan parliament should pass bills as soon as possible that will give the Information and Security Service (ISS) and the prosecutor's office the necessary tools "to deal more effectively with risks to the country's security." It is also possible that in the case of Moldova, this is preparation for the opening of a second front, for a joint Ukrainian-Moldovan operation against Transnistria, where a relatively small contingent of the RF Armed Forces guards significant stocks of Soviet weapons.
Against the backdrop of the strengthening of the position of the Republican Party in the United States, the Democratic Party and the President of the United States D. Biden himself are increasingly under pressure from competitors, some of whom (led by D. Trump) want to end the war as soon as possible, even though partial concessions to the Russian Federation at the expense of interests Ukraine or part of its territories. But at the same time, the D. Biden administration cannot allow the Ukrainian case to fail, as this will hit the chances of J. Biden and the Democrats as a whole in the next US presidential election.
In general, representatives of the conditional "party of agreements " of Western countries continue to put forward various options for peace negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Brazil has decided to mediate on Ukraine and proposes a new format for negotiations that would include Russia and Asian countries such as India, Indonesia, Turkey, and China. The President of Brazil also said that it is necessary to include the United States in the format, he did not mention Ukraine in his list. The Brazilian proposal could theoretically create a platform for Ukraine, which would express an alternative point of view to the Western coalition.
At the same time, the former adviser to the Office of the President (OP) Oleksii Arestovich attracted attention with resonant statements that it would not be possible to return all the territories occupied by Russia by military means, then the Western allies, according to A. Arestovich may start talking about the so-called "Two Koreas" scenario " for Ukraine. At the official level, the Ukrainian government categorically rejects the idea of "Two Koreas", insisting on the war until reaching the borders of 1991, including Crimea. But it is quite possible that the so-called. The "Korean scenario" was discussed behind the scenes with Western partners. Perhaps such a statement by A. Arestovich is an attempt to prepare society for the fact that the war will be long and it will not be possible to liberate all the territories shortly. It is possible that A. Arestovich was fired, among other things, so that he would voice unpopular things without substituting the Office of the President.
Personnel rotation continues in the internal politics of the country. The Office of the President does not intend to give up its positions in law enforcement agencies and the regions. So the influence of the power team was strengthened by the new head of the SBU (V. Malyuk ) and the new Minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (I. Klymenko), who are focused on the OP. It is expected that both the main competitors within the country (“European Solidarity” headed by P. Poroshenko) and representatives of the interests of some Western partners (the "Voice" party) did not give their votes for the appointment of these persons. At the regional level, the influence of the OP is strengthened by the appointment of new heads of regional administrations in the Dnepropetrovsk Zaporizhzhia (representatives of the SBU) and Kherson (representative of the police) regions.
The confrontation for the post of Minister of Defense of Ukraine also continues. The Presidential Office intends to keep the position for A. Reznikov, according to him, this is a personal initiative of President V. Zelensky . A. Reznikov has already confirmed the change of three of his deputies in the Ministry of Defense. Hero of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Oleksandr Pavlyuk has been nominated for the post of First Deputy Minister. Vitaly Deynega was invited to the post of Deputy Minister for Digital Development, Digital Transformation, and Digitalization. At the same time, an active military man can now become the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky signed the corresponding decree today (Presidential Decree No. 76/2023 dated February 13, 2023, on amending Presidential Decrees No. dated May 5, 2020 No. 166/2020). The norm will be valid only for the period of martial law. The heroes of the military and the new "volunteer troops " in the Ministry of Defense are called upon to restore public confidence in the leadership of the Ministry of Defense and the authorities in general after a series of high-profile corruption scandals.
On February 10, Ukraine was subjected to the 14th massive rocket attack from the Russian Federation. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia fired 106 missiles in Ukraine (61 missiles were shot down), 74 of which were air and sea-based cruise missiles. The Russian Federation also used 32 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and launched 59 air strikes, including 28 using Shahed-136 UAVs, 22 of which were shot down. In addition, the Russian Federation has adopted a tactic where drones are supposed to defuse Ukrainian air defenses before the main salvo of missiles, which were fired in three waves. In general, power engineers state significant damage to infrastructure, and emergency shutdowns resumed in many regions, although it was not possible to achieve a blackout in the Russian Federation. The cities of Kharkiv, Khmelnytsky, and Zaporizhzhia suffered the most. Due to a missile strike, one of the power units of the Khmelnytsky NPP was stopped. It is also reported that electricity production was reduced at Rivne and South Ukrainian nuclear power plants as a precautionary measure. The command of the Air Force of Ukraine states that the interval between the massive missile strikes of the Russian Federation is increasing and they attribute this to the shortage of missiles in Russia.
The country's economy is mainly supported by donor funds from allied countries. Which already accounts for about 60% of revenues in the budget of Ukraine. In general, for 2023, financing the budget deficit of Ukraine from external funds is provided in the amount of $38 billion. Due to the risks of the timely receipt of donor funds, the NBU did not completely rule out the issue of money. Which in turn causes the devaluation of the national currency and rising inflation. The NBU expects inflation to gradually decline in 2023. Inflation in January 2023 in annual terms slowed down to 26.0% (in December 2022 - 26.6%). In January, prices rose by only 0.8%. Inflation was contained, including by constant tariffs for housing and communal services, a fixed hryvnia exchange rate, and the establishment, albeit partial, of logistics.
The Russian Federation begins new bidding to extend the "grain deal". As a condition, the Russian leadership demands partial lifting of sanctions, in particular, against Russian shipping and insurance companies. The Russian Federation is also seeking the possibility of exporting agricultural products and fertilizers from the occupied territories. At the same time, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation in this matter will go against the position of Turkey, which is one of the main beneficiaries of the grain deal and is now a "grain hub" for the sale of grain to third world countries. It is very likely that the Russian Federation also has its part of the "shadow" benefit in this process.
military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: The RF Armed Forces are trying to advance in the Kupyansk direction. Attacks of the RF Armed Forces were repulsed in the area of the settlement. Gryanykivka Kharkiv region
In Donbas: The RF Armed Forces are advancing on the Kupyansky, Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiivsky, and Novopavlivsky ( Ugledar ) directions. The main battles are taking place in the areas of the cities of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vugledar. Attacks of the RF Armed Forces were repulsed near the settlements of Nevske, Kreminna, and Bilogorivka in the Lugansk region. In the Donetsk, region attacks were repelled - in the areas of the settlements of Fedorivka, Bakhmut, Ivanovske, Vodianoe, Pershotravneve, Maryinka, Peremoha, Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, and Prechystivka.
The situation in the South direction: no significant changes.
Black Sea-Azov direction: without significant changes.
Combat map.
The internal situation in the country.
Shelling of Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
The Russian Federation continues its strategy to destroy the critical infrastructure of Ukraine. On February 10, Ukraine was subjected to the 14th massive rocket attack from the Russian Federation.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia fired 106 missiles in Ukraine (61 missiles were shot down), 74 of which were air and sea-based cruise missiles. The Russian Federation also used 32 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and launched 59 air strikes, including 28 using Shahed-136 UAVs, 22 of which were shot down. The strikes were launched from Tu-95ms carriers by Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles from the Caspian Sea and Volgodonsk regions and by Kalibr cruise missiles from rocket carriers in the Black Sea. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny said that two "Caliber" fired from the Black Sea entered the airspace of Moldova and Romania, after which they returned to Ukraine. Moldova confirmed the flight of a missile over their territory and called the Russian ambassador "on the carpet." Judging by the statement of Chisinau, the rocket passed over Transnistria. But Romania issued a refutation that their airspace had been violated.
The command of the Air Force of Ukraine states that the interval between the massive missile strikes of the Russian Federation is increasing and they attribute this to the shortage of missiles in Russia. The head of the press center of the South Defense Forces notes that the distance from one massive strike to another is two weeks. The last time the invader attacked Ukraine with rockets was on February 10. So next time, probably, it could be February 24th.
Drones were fired in the first wave at night, and at 8:30 the first rockets were fired. It is likely that the Russian Federation again used the tactic when the drones are supposed to defuse the Ukrainian air defense before the main salvo of missiles, which were fired in three waves.
The main target of the missile strikes were power plants and high-voltage network facilities in six regions in the east, west, and south of Ukraine. It is known about the damage to four thermal power plants of DTEK, as well as hydroelectric power plants. Explosions were heard: in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, as well as in Lviv, Odesa, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Poltava regions. The Ministry of Energy claims that the work of the air defense system made it possible to maintain the integrity of the energy system. Arrivals to energy facilities in the Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytsky, and Kharkiv regions and damage to power grids in the Kyiv region were confirmed.
Due to a missile strike, one of the power units of the Khmelnytsky NPP was stopped. This was reported by the IAEA in a daily summary. It is also reported that electricity production was reduced at Rivne and South Ukrainian nuclear power plants as a precautionary measure.
According to the results of the shelling, the most difficult situation is observed in the Kharkiv region, where emergency power outages have been introduced. Network restrictions were also applied in Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, and Kyiv regions. In Dnipro, at least until the next day, they stopped all-electric transport and turned off external lighting. In addition, the Russian missile attack led to local Internet outages, according to Netblocks data. The most large-scale failures were in Khmelnytskyi, Poltava, and Dnepropetrovsk regions, as well as in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. In general, power engineers state significant damage to infrastructure, and emergency shutdowns resumed in many regions, although it was not possible to achieve a blackout in the Russian Federation.
Economic situation.
The Cabinet of Ministers has approved a $6 billion grant from the United States, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at a government meeting. The funds will be directed to social programs, education, and medicine. Since the beginning of this year, international partners have already allocated $4.2 billion to Ukraine. In general, according to D. Shmygal, Ukraine needs $38 billion this year to finance the budget deficit.
On February 13, the mission of the International Monetary Fund began its work in Ukraine. Already in the first year of the new program, Ukraine can receive from 5 to 7 billion dollars, and the first tranche "at best" can be received in April 2023. According to Bloomberg's earlier forecast, which cites its sources, the IMF may approve a new $16 billion financial support program for Ukraine in March.
Thus, the country's economy is mainly supported by donor funds from allied countries. Which already accounts for about 60% of revenues in the budget of Ukraine.
The NBU expects that inflation will continue to gradually decline in 2023. Inflation in January 2023 in annual terms slowed down to 26.0% (in December 2022 - 26.6%). In January, prices rose by only 0.8%. Inflation was contained, including by constant tariffs for housing and communal services, a fixed hryvnia exchange rate, and the establishment, albeit partial, of logistics.
Due to the risks of the timely receipt of donor funds, the NBU did not completely rule out the issue of money. It is also possible that soon the authorities will again have to make a difficult choice: significantly raise rates on their government bonds and raise the cost of public debt, or return to issuing hryvnia through government bonds. Although the authorities promised not to do the latter to the IMF, which is clearly stated in the latest Memorandum of the International Monetary Fund.
The situation regarding the grain deal.
The Russian Federation begins new bidding to extend the "grain deal". As a condition, the Russian leadership demands partial lifting of sanctions, in particular, against Russian shipping and insurance companies. The Russian Federation is also seeking the possibility of exporting agricultural products and fertilizers from the territories seized from Ukraine. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei Vershinin said that the grain deal needs to be adjusted. According to S. Vershinin, only one part of the deal is being carried out - the export of Ukrainian grain. At the same time, the second part of the deal on unhindered access of Russian agricultural products to the world market does not suit Moscow. " If there is no adjustment, then we must ask ourselves: why then is all this being done - for commercial purposes, for political purposes, or to ensure global security in the world and take into account the interests of the world's poorest countries? " - explained the representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He added that there is no progress on the world market in terms of lifting restrictions on the export of Russian fertilizers, so the Istanbul agreements and the extension of the grain deal in March are inappropriate under the current conditions. At the same time, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation in this matter will go against the position of Turkey, which is one of the main beneficiaries of the grain deal and is also a "grain hub" for the sale of grain to third world countries. It is very likely that the Russian Federation also has its part of the "shadow" benefit in this process. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated that the Russian Federation, with its systemic destructive actions, disrupts the work of the "grain corridor" and this trend is only intensifying.
On November 17, the agreement on the export of grain from Ukraine was extended for another 120 days. According to the UN, since the launch of the grain initiative, more than 21 million tons of agricultural products have been exported from the ports of Ukraine. Of the total volume, corn accounts for 47%, wheat - 29%, sunflower oil, meal - 5% each, and other cargoes - 14%. Most cargoes from Ukraine were delivered to China (4.2 million tons), Spain (3.8 million), Turkey (2.4 million), the Netherlands (1.2 million), and Egypt (724.7 thousand tons).
Ports remain the main way to export agricultural products from Ukraine. It is important that the functioning of the "grain deal" from August to the end of November allowed Ukraine to export virtually the entire volume of the old crop. Until the summer, Ukraine needs to send about 45 million tons of grain for export. Therefore, Ukraine they are in favor of an indefinite continuation of the "grain deal" and of an increase in the number of ports operating for the export of grain (Nikolaev ports), as well as for a possible expansion of the range of supplies. What is extremely important, is to increase financial revenues from exports to the country's budget, which can be tens of billions of dollars.
Personnel changes.
A series of personnel reshuffles continues in the domestic politics of the country.
He became the new head of the SBU, previously acting. head of the SBU Vasily Malyuk and Igor Klimenko was appointed Minister of the Interior. 324 deputies voted for the appointment of V. Malyuk: Servant of the People - 226, EU - 0, Batkivshchyna - 18, For the Future - 12, Voice - 0, Dovira - 15, Remembrance Ukraine " - 17, Non-factional - 17, "Platform for Life and Peace" - 19.
321 deputies voted for the appointment of I. Klymenko: Servant of the People - 224, EU - 0, Batkivshchyna - 18, "For the Future " - 13, Voice - 1, " Dovira " - 13, " Inspiration Ukraine "- 17, non-factional - 17.
The government supported the appointment of new heads of regional administrations: Dnepropetrovsk region - Sergei Lysak, Zaporizhzhia region - Yuriy Malashko, Kherson region - Alexander Prokudin. The future head of the Zaporizhzhia region, Yuri Malashko, as well as the future head of the Dnepropetrovsk region, Sergei Lysak, is an employee of the SBU. He holds the position of Deputy Head of the Anti-Terrorist Center under the SBU. And the future head of the Kherson OVA Alexander Prokudin comes from the police. From 2019 to February 2022, he was the head of the Main Directorate of the National Police in the region. He was removed from his post shortly before the start of the Russian invasion.
The Office of the President does not intend to give up its positions in law enforcement agencies and the regions. So the influence of the power team will be strengthened by the new head of the SBU (V. Malyuk ) and the new minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (I. Klymenko), who are focused on the OP. It is expected that both the main competitors within the country ("European Solidarity" headed by P. Poroshenko) and representatives of the interests of Western partners (the "Voice" party) did not give their votes for the appointment of these persons. At the regional level, the influence of the OP is strengthened by the appointment of new heads of regional administrations in the Dnepropetrovsk Zaporizhzhia (representatives of the SBU) and Kherson (representative of the police) regions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced upcoming appointments in several regions. The main task of the new heads of the regions will be to ensure the defense capability of the regions and the fight against pro-Russian manifestations.
A new information attack was launched against Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov. Now there are reports on the networks that the Ministry of Defense allegedly overpaid for cartridges by 24 times what the Czech Republic offered for ammunition. The Ministry of Defense reported that as of February 10, 2023, the department had not received offers from suppliers regarding the possibility of supplying 7.62-mm cartridges for $0.07 per unit. The lowest offer for 7.62 mm cartridges was provided by the Israeli company Pims LTD – Projects and Infrastructure management LTD for 7.62x39 cartridges originating in the People's Republic of China at $0.18 per unit. However, the Ministry of Defense considers this proposal risky, since the official export of weapons from China is currently impossible. Therefore, this proposal cannot be considered. The purpose of the new accusations is to destroy Reznikov's reputation. This was written by Dmitry Zolotukhin, former Deputy Minister of Information Policy of Ukraine, an expert on information warfare and competitive intelligence. For whose task such accusations are being made, is currently unknown.
It is obvious that the Presidential Office intends to retain the positions of Minister of Defense A. Reznikov, according to him, this is a personal initiative of President V. Zelensky. Aleksey Reznikov has already confirmed the change of three of his deputies in the Ministry of Defense. Hero of Ukraine, Lieutenant-General Oleksandr Pavlyuk has been nominated for the post of First Deputy Minister. Vitaly Deynega was invited to the post of Deputy Minister for Digital Development, Digital Transformation, and Digitalization. Also, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that an anti-corruption advisory body would be created under the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
It is known that the deputies of the pro-presidential Servant of the People party made proposals to change the legislation to allow a soldier to take the post of defense minister. At the same time, an active military man can now become the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky signed the corresponding decree today (Presidential Decree No. 76/2023 dated February 13, 2023, on amending Presidential Decrees No. dated May 5, 2020 No. 166/2020). The norm will be valid only for the period of martial law. A candidate for the position may be in the rank of lieutenant general or vice admiral. According to rumors, the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, is lobbying Kirill Budanov for the post of Defense Minister.
A potential contender for the post of Minister of Defense, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, has his direct channel of communication with President V. Zelensky and Western partners (primarily the United States) and is a fairly independent figure from the OP. Thus, the OP may lose influence on the MOU in a war, a significant part of the financial flows and assistance from the allies.
The confrontation between the head of the Office of President A. Yermak and the head of the Servant of the People faction D. Arakhamia come down to control over Ukroboronprom, A. Yermak claims to control the flow of arms trade.
The situation around Ukraine.
negotiation process.
Former adviser to the Office of the President (OP) Oleksiy Arestovich drew attention to himself with resonant statements that the end of the war with Russia may not be as Ukrainians hope. And that it will not be possible to return all the territories occupied by Russia by military means, then the Western allies, according to A. Arestovich can start talking about the so-called "Two Koreas" scenario for Ukraine. At the official level, the Ukrainian government categorically rejects the idea of "Two Koreas", insisting on the war until reaching the borders of 1991, including Crimea. But it is quite possible that the so-called. The "Korean scenario" was discussed behind the scenes with Western partners. Perhaps such a statement by A. Arestovich is an attempt to prepare society for the fact that the war will be long and it will not be possible to liberate all the territories shortly. It is possible that A. Arestovich was fired, among other things, so that he would voice unpopular things without substituting the Office of the President.
Against the backdrop of the strengthening of the position of the Republican Party in the United States, the Democratic Party and the President of the United States D. Biden himself are increasingly under pressure from competitors, some of whom (led by D. Trump) want to end the war as soon as possible, even though partial concessions to the Russian Federation at the expense of interests Ukraine or part of its territories. But if the Ukrainian case of the Democratic Party fails, it will hit the team of the incumbent US president hard. Therefore, for now, the Biden administration will assist Ukraine as much as it is needed.
In general, representatives of the conditional "peace party" of Western countries continue to call for a ceasefire and put forward various options for peace negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Brazil has decided to mediate on Ukraine and proposes a new format for negotiations that would include Russia and Asian countries.
President Lula da Silva said that " we need to assemble a group of countries that talk about peace, not about war ." Among such countries, he named India, Indonesia, Turkey, and China, where Lula da Silva will go in March, and intends to discuss there, among other things, the idea of a new format for Ukraine. The President of Brazil also said that the United States and Russia should be included in the format. He did not mention Ukraine in his list, which the US White House has already drawn attention to.
Biden spokesman John Kirby said that " it is up to President Zelensky to determine whether negotiations are appropriate, and if so, under what circumstances ." That is, Washington agrees to large-format negotiations only with the formal consent of Kyiv and with its participation. At the same time, Ukraine refuses direct negotiations with Russia and demands that the Russian Federation first withdraw its troops from the occupied territories.
The Brazilian president was joined by the presidents of Argentina and Colombia. Alberto Fernandez and Gustavo Petro advocated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The heads of the two countries propose "to redouble diplomatic efforts" to end the war in Ukraine, writes Le Monde. They also call on the parties to cease fire. The Brazilian proposal could theoretically create a platform for Ukraine, which would express an alternative point of view to the Western coalition.
The Russian Federation once again made it clear that it is ready for negotiations based on the recognition of the annexation of Ukrainian territories, to which Ukraine categorically disagrees and only talks about the option within the 1991 borders.
The probability of negotiations was commented on in the Kremlin. They said they were ready to negotiate "based on the reality that exists ." Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak reacted to these words on Twitter, excluding the very possibility of negotiations on such a basis.
According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Russian President Vladimir Putin, instead of being ready for peace in Ukraine, begins new offensive actions. "Almost a year after the invasion, Putin is not preparing for peace, but is starting new offensive actions," Stoltenberg noted and added that this is why military support of Kyiv with everything necessary on the battlefield is so important. will save lives. If Putin wins in Ukraine, it will be a signal to authoritarian states in the world "about the possibility of using force for their foreign policy goals," the Alliance Secretary General added.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky had a telephone conversation with President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos. The Ukrainian leader stressed that this conversation was the first in the history of bilateral relations between states. " I thanked you for the support of the sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine. We discussed further deepening of cooperation, including on international platforms," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Recall that in January, when asked whether the Philippine government was ready to jointly support the "peace plan" of Ukraine, Marcos said that Kyiv and Moscow should discuss this.
Against this backdrop, the visit of Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations of Hungary Peter Szijjártó to Belarus, too, as he put it, " keep the channels of communication open," he added that he was open to criticism. The program of the visit includes several events, including talks with Belarusian Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik and Economy Minister Alexander Chervyakov. The Hungarian Foreign Minister noted that Budapest asks Minsk to do everything possible to achieve peace in Ukraine. the visit in particular is highly likely to draw criticism both in Ukraine and Poland, which has long been viewed by the Hungarian government as one of its biggest allies. Representatives of the Ukrainian media turned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine for comment. They noted that they had already seen information about the trip of the Hungarian Foreign Minister, but so far they have not provided a comment.
Hungary has repeatedly criticized EU anti-Russian sanctions, arguing that they have not been able to significantly weaken the Russian economy, while these restrictions risk destroying the European economy.
Head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell does not understand those who demand to stop the supply of weapons to Ukraine to achieve peace. “ Some people think that the solution is to stop military supplies to Ukraine. To be honest, I don’t understand this… I don’t understand such naivety on the part of the left, I have friends who think so ." He noted that to establish lasting peace in Europe, Ukraine must defeat Russia.
The situation in Moldova.
President Maia Sandu said at a press briefing on February 13 that Russia was planning a coup d'état in Moldova. In particular, according to Sandu, the Russian Federation plans, with the help of opposition protests and with the involvement of people with military training, as well as citizens of the Russian Federation, Belarus, Serbia, and Montenegro, to attack government buildings and change power in the republic.
“ Documents received from our Ukrainian partners indicate the locations and logistical aspects of organizing this subversive activity. The plan also provides for the use of foreigners for violent actions. For example, the materials contain instructions on the rules for entering Moldova for citizens of Russia, Belarus, Serbia, and Montenegro," Sandu said.
On February 9, at a meeting of the European Council in Brussels, Volodymyr Zelensky said that he had informed Maia Sandu that Ukrainian intelligence " managed to intercept a detailed Russian plan to destroy the political situation in Moldova ." "A Russian document that shows who, when and as a result of what actions are going to break Moldova, the democratic order of this country, and establish its control over it," Zelensky said, noting that it is not yet known whether Moscow ordered the implementation of this plan.
NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana also confirmed that Russia is trying to destabilize the situation in Moldova. He also noted that Russia does not have enough strength to attack Ukraine from Transnistria.
Recall that anti-government protests have been going on in Moldova throughout 2022. In early February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moldova could become a "new Ukraine." The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Moldova, Daniel Voda, said that Chisinau had chosen in favor of the European Union and the "free world". And the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council A. Danilov said that Chechens, who fought in Ukraine since February 24, may soon appear on the territory of Moldova.
Interestingly, on February 14, an unidentified object similar to a weather balloon was found in the airspace of Ukraine, Moldova, and Romania. In this connection, the airspace of Moldova was temporarily closed, but after a few hours, it resumed work.
Maia Sandu noted that “ when implementing the plan, the criminals are counting on some internal forces, in particular, on criminal groups such as the Shor party, some veterans, former law enforcement officers and people known for their ties with Plahotniuk. ”
The President of Moldova assured that the state security agencies are working to prevent these provocations and keep the situation under control. She called for expanding the capabilities of the security services amid protests in Chisinau.
Maia Sandu urged to expand of the capabilities of the intelligence services and said that the Moldovan parliament should adopt bills as soon as possible that will give the Information and Security Service (ISS) and the prosecutor's office the necessary tools "to deal more effectively with risks to the country's security. "
Thus, Moldova they are preparing to strengthen the power of the President, and law enforcement agencies and suppress the pro-Russian anti-Western opposition in the same way as it was previously done in Ukraine. It is worth noting that recently Moldova has also been receiving weapons from NATO countries and its political course has shifted sharply towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Another country falls out of the zone of the political influence of the Russian Federation and is on the verge of a military-political aggravation.
It is possible that in the case of Moldova, this is preparation for the opening of a second front, for a joint Ukrainian-Moldovan operation against Transnistria, where a relatively small contingent of the RF Armed Forces guards significant stocks of Soviet weapons.
Weapon deliveries.
Last week, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky made his second trip abroad during the war and paid an official visit to several European countries (Great Britain, France, Belgium). President of the European Council Charles Michel officially invited Volodymyr Zelensky to take part in the European Union summit on February 9-10 in Brussels. At the summit, EU leaders may discuss providing fighter jets to Ukraine.
The visit of V. Zelensky to Europe is an attempt to speed up and expand the range of arms supplies (we are talking, first of all, about aviation). The President also seeks to start negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU (next stage). Along with this, Ukraine needs EU leaders to support V. Zelensky's "peace formula" - a ten-point plan that can create a new global security architecture.
Following the results of the first day (February 14) of the meeting, the allies at the American Ramstein air base in southwestern Germany promised Ukraine to transfer "as much ammunition as possible and as soon as possible," but no decision on the fighters has yet been made. Further, the transfer of tanks to Ukraine will be discussed. The US, Poland, and the Czech Republic will supply tanks in addition to those already sent. The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, said that the United States and its allies promise to help the Ukrainians go on the counteroffensive in the spring. It is known that the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands will supply Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, while France and Italy will supply SAMP/T air defense systems. Also, the American media reported that the United States is preparing a new $10 billion military aid package for Ukraine on the anniversary of the Russian invasion. New weapons - such as F-16 aircraft or long-range missiles - will not be in the package. New deliveries will focus on ammunition, air defense, and spare parts. There are also no signals for ATACMS missiles that Ukraine is requesting. The US does not want to send them for reasons of shortage.
Earlier, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov spoke about the agenda of the meeting of the allies at the US Ramstein airbase. The minister formulated the main issue of the meeting as " protection of the Ukrainian sky, including through the involvement of an aviation platform ." This is primarily about the possibility of providing Ukraine with combat aircraft and air defense systems since in the past few months Ukraine's infrastructure has been suffering mainly from air strikes: air raids and attacks by kamikaze drones.
In addition, it is planned to discuss the " development of a tank coalition ", replenishment of stocks of spent ammunition, training programs for training the Ukrainian military, and the " stability of support " from the collective West: " logistics, maintenance, repairs, practical implementation of the "Military Schengen" ". There are signals that the range of military supplies to Ukraine will be expanded, possibly due to aviation or long-range missiles.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, following the results of Rammstein, said that the allies confirmed that Ukraine would receive even more air defense, tanks, artillery, and shells.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine today experience a shortage of ammunition and many types of weapons, which has become especially strongly felt against the backdrop of increased Russian attacks. Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Igor Zhovkva said in an interview with Bloomberg that the ammunition of the Ukrainian troops is "almost at zero." According to him, the ammunition runs out very quickly due to the intensity of the fighting. " We are in desperate need of weapons, ammunition, artillery, battle tanks, armored vehicles, fighters," I. Zhovkva said.
In Germany, the training of the Ukrainian military in the management of Leopard 2 tanks has begun, according to the German Ministry of Defense. The training will take place predominantly at the tank school in Munster (Lower Saxony) and should be completed by the end of the first quarter (end of April) so that the transfer of tanks can be "synchronized", writes TAZ. Also in Germany, training programs for Ukrainians on Marder infantry fighting vehicles have already started. It is worth noting that the tanks promised by Germany do not have time for the announced Russian offensive.
Germany is already openly speaking out against such a decision, and the British Minister of Defense said that this issue was not discussed (that is, so far Ukraine has had no success in this direction). The German government reiterated that it is not considering the issue of possible deliveries of combat aircraft to Ukraine. And the Netherlands, to which Kyiv has already sent a request for the F-16, said that it was "not easy to fulfill." Earlier, France and Britain announced that they would not give fighter jets to Ukraine. The British Defense Secretary also said that now the supply of fighters is unrealistic and said that it would be better to focus on drones and long-range missiles. Pilot training on them takes up to three years, but even if we talk about accelerated programs, this is many months at best. That is, by the end of the year they are unlikely to change the situation at the front. Of course, it is possible to put "vacationers" from NATO countries who have signed contracts with the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the helm. But if such a pilot is captured by the Russians, this will give them a reason to talk about the fate of NATO aircraft in the conflict (which the Alliance avoids).
To improve the position of Ukrainian troops at the front, arms deliveries to Ukraine must be made on time and in the required quantity.
In general, the supply of long-range missiles and aircraft (if they are implemented) will also mean planning an operation to return Crimea to Ukraine. Since they will make it extremely difficult to connect Crimea with the Russian mainland. In general, the further course of events about Ukraine will largely depend on the decisions taken in the United States.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
