Авторы публикации
The telephone conversation announced a month ago by Chinese President Xi took place today. Jinping with President of Ukraine V. Zelensky . Earlier, these negotiations were postponed by the Chinese side, after the visit of the head of China to the Russian Federation. It was a "long meaningful" conversation, V. Zelensky said . In turn, Xi Jinping said: "Dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way out of the Ukrainian crisis, and no one will win a nuclear war." The United States welcomes the fact that the head of the PRC, Xi Jinping, holds talks with the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky. Earlier, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that such a conversation would allow the Chinese leader to hear the Ukrainian view of the war, and not just the Russian position. At the same time, the President of Ukraine can try to take advantage of the opportunity and build his own dialogue with China, and thus win him over to his side , so far it looks unrealistic . It is possible that now negotiations between China and Ukraine have taken place, including due to the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive , as well as the scandal associated with the statement of the Chinese ambassador to France regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine .
It is likely that Xi Jinping expects to influence the decision of the Ukrainian leadership or implements a formal approach of balancing between the parties to the war to start a new stage in promoting China's peace proposals. And now the team of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky may be faced with a choice: to suspend / postpone the counteroffensive (and agree to the peacekeeping role of the PRC, a prerequisite for which is the cessation of hostilities) or ignore the position of the PRC - launch a counteroffensive, which will postpone the negotiation process for 2 -3 months at least (before the completion of the offensive operation, negotiations will lose their meaning), with the risks of more active involvement of the PRC in support of the Russian Federation. The start of the mission of the PRC Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs, or its absence, will be markers of progress in advancing the Chinese approach to a peaceful settlement.
At present, the PRC continues to promote the ideas of its peace initiatives. First of all, Chinese narratives about the world resonate in third countries (Latin America, Asia, Africa), where a war in Ukraine could cause a severe economic crisis. The head of the PRC, Xi Jinping, is already actively using the President of Brazil for this process (offering to start negotiations and stop arms supplies to Ukraine), and also seeks to use the political ambitions of France and President Emmanuel Macron, who, after a visit to China, said that a peace plan was being prepared, which “ put Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table.” But the implementation of Chinese initiatives is categorically not accepted in Ukraine and, most importantly, in the United States. It is in the United States that they regulate the main military and financial assistance to Ukraine and, in fact, its ability to conduct resistance at the front. Stopping the supply of weapons, as proposed by the President of Brazil, will mean either freezing the conflict along the front line, or the defeat of Ukraine (if the Russian Federation seizes the moment and goes on an active offensive).
In opposition to the Chinese peace initiatives, the United States presented a bipartisan draft resolution "On the position of the House of Representatives on the conditions for Ukraine's victory." The initiative actually completely repeats the peace plan of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. And it is an attempt to legally fix in American law the conditions under which it is possible to end the war in Ukraine. Now this issue has become relevant due to the fact that some of the elites in the world and in the United States are considering the possibility of negotiations with the Russian Federation or China, as well as the formation of certain agreements with them, which imply concessions from Ukraine (territorial or in terms of sovereignty).
The resolution on the position of the House of Representatives regarding the conditions for Ukraine's victory should exclude the scenario of separate agreements between the United States, China and the Russian Federation, which provide for any concessions for the Russian Federation . After all, if the Resolution is adopted, even the new President of the United States (albeit a Republican ) , is unlikely to be able to formally agree on a compromise settlement proposed by the Russian Federation or China. That is, this is an attempt to create a legal barrier in American law for any separate agreements with Putin's Russia. Which will allow to end the war only after the absolute defeat of the Russian Federation. The adoption of this draft resolution is likely to be a rather complicated procedure, and it is not certain that it will be successful. Since the majority in the House of Representatives of the US Congress is occupied by the Republicans , and many of them understand that such a step in the future will significantly limit the field for the geopolitical maneuver of the future President.
At the front, Russian troops continue to attempt an offensive in the Lymansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiivsky and Maryinsky and Shakhtarsky (in the Vugledar region ) directions. The assault on the city of Bakhmut continues, the fighting is already in the western part of the city, but closer to the center. Also, the RF Armed Forces are trying to cut the main supply route for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which passes through the settlement . Khromovo . Despite the fact that the situation is getting more complicated, the Ukrainian leadership makes it clear that they intend to keep the city for now. So the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said: "We can't give up Bakhmut because it will give Russian troops and Wagner a chance to seize more of our lands. If the Russian Federation captures Bakhmut, it could become a springboard for an offensive against Kramatorsk and Slovyansk."
Western sources report the appearance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region . However, this information is still difficult to confirm. It is possible that the information about the Ukrainian foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro can be both reconnaissance of the positions of the RF Armed Forces, and actions aimed at diverting the attention of the Russian Federation from the direction where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning the main strike. In order to force the Russian command to transfer reserves to this direction, removing it from others where the Ukrainian offensive is being prepared.
The territory of Crimea is increasingly being attacked by drones. Explosions also periodically occur there, the nature of which is not always clearly established. There is a possibility that Ukraine sometimes uses the Grom operational-tactical complex for attacks in Crimea, which has been developed in Ukraine for several years, but has not been officially adopted (officially neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine confirm this information). It is stated that the maximum range of destruction of its missiles reaches 500 kilometers and it can reach the Crimean bridge.
In general, the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive are still unclear. On the one hand, Western partners continue to provide significant military support to Ukraine. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a contact group meeting at Ramstein Air Force Base that NATO had provided $55 billion worth of military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the invasion. Over the past few months, NATO has provided equipment and training to support nine more armored brigades for Ukraine. But, on the other hand, the range of weapons supplied is not capable of fundamentally turning the tide of the war. Therefore, it can be assumed that the counter-offensive is being delayed, among other things, due to a lack of necessary weapons, and not only because of weather conditions, as the allies say.
This week NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Kiev . His visit to Ukraine is more of a political nature. In particular, this is an attempt to reduce the wave of criticism against the Alliance, which is being dispersed by the Ukrainian leadership. The main main issue in relation to NATO for Ukraine today is membership in the Alliance and security guarantees. What President V. Zelensky spoke about at the meeting with J. Stoltenberg . J. Stoltenberg invited V. Zelensky to take part in the NATO summit in Lithuania (to be held on July 11-12). It is expected that at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, the issues of Ukraine's membership and security guarantees will be among the priorities of the agenda. The team of President V. Zelensky hopes that following this summit, the Alliance will provide Ukraine with an action plan to prepare for NATO membership (MAP). Or, tentative dates will be announced when Ukraine will be able to become a NATO member without a MAP. But so far this looks unlikely, since the Western allies put victory in the war as a top priority for Ukraine, and only after that the question of joining NATO may appear on the agenda. What NATO Secretary General Jens again recalled during his visit Stoltenberg .
The functioning of the Ukrainian economy during the war is completely dependent on funding from foreign donors. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, international financial assistance to Ukraine (we are talking specifically about loans and grants to the Budget) has reached $45.77 billion. In 2022, Ukraine, according to the January report of the NBU, received $32.1 billion of financial assistance. 12 billion of this amount was given by the United States, 8 billion - by the European Union. This year, Ukraine expects to receive $42 billion in financial assistance. This is $4 billion more than the draft State Budget ( $ 38 billion ).
In Ukraine, the losses from the war in such areas as infrastructure, education, energy, transport, trade and healthcare continue to grow. The total amount of damage caused to Ukraine exceeds $700 billion. Damage to infrastructure in February 2023 reached $143.8 billion. Damage to industrial facilities and production logistics increased to almost $50 billion. $8.7 billion. The largest share of losses in the agricultural sector is due to the destruction and damage of agricultural machinery, the estimated losses of producers amount to more than 4.65 billion dollars. In total, as a result of the war, 109.6 thousand units of agricultural machinery were damaged or destroyed. More than 4 million tons of destroyed and stolen agricultural products have been recorded. The combined cost of these losses is estimated at $1.87 billion. Agro-
The European Commission plans to propose by the end of the year to ban the import of five agricultural products from Ukraine. And in the future, the European market for Ukrainian agricultural products may be closed. At the same time, if the work of the grain corridor in the Black Sea ports fails to be extended in May, then the situation for Ukrainian food exports (the main channel for the supply of foreign currency to the country) will become critical. Ukraine could lose up to $20 billion of its profits a year. Russia has repeatedly threatened to break the grain deal.
The government is preparing to raise electricity tariffs for residential and non-residential consumers.
For non-residential consumers, the solution provides for two more stages of tariff increase:
from April 1 - up to 430.25 UAH /MWh
from July 1 - up to 485.1 UAH / MWh
In addition, a separate tariff for electricity transmission services for green electrometallurgy enterprises is set at UAH 209.42 /MWh.
Also, NCSREPU set new Ukrenergo tariffs for dispatching:
from April 1 - up to 80.87 UAH / MWh
As a result, prices will rise by 54.4-81.7% for the first voltage class and by 35.6-56.7% for the second.
Among the considered options for raising prices for the population, the following can be distinguished: UAH 2.40 and UAH 2.80 per 1 kWh. UAH 44/kWh for consumption up to the specified limit - valid until March 31, 2023.). That is, an increase in the price of electricity for the population is expected to be at least 50%. The formal pretext for increasing the cost of electricity is the need to restore the energy system after Russian attacks. Authorities report that the energy sector needs about UAH 40 billion (slightly more than $1 billion) to prepare for the winter.
An increase in electricity tariffs will lead to an increase in the cost of production in general. Which in turn will cause another round of rising prices for goods and services in the country.
Military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: without significant changes . attacks were repulsed near the city of Kupyansk - in the area of Lyman Pershyi.
In Donbass: The RF Armed Forces are advancing in the Lymansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiivsky and Maryinsky and Shakhtarsky (in the area of Vugledar ) directions. The main battles are taking place in the areas of the cities of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, Vugledar . Attacks of the RF Armed Forces repulsed in the area of settlements Kreminna, Bilogorivka in district of Seversk in the Luhansk region. In the Donetsk region attacks were repelled - in areas of settlements, Ivanivske, Khromove, Grygorivka , Bogdanivka, Novokalynove , Novomykhailivka, Stepne, Pershotravneve and Nevelske.
Situation in the South: Russian and Western sources report the appearance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region. The Ukrainian side does not confirm this.
Black Sea-Azov direction: without significant changes.
Combat map.
Domestic policy.
Economic situation.
The functioning of the Ukrainian economy during the war is completely dependent on funding from foreign donors. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, international financial assistance to Ukraine (we are talking specifically about loans and grants to the Budget) has reached $45.77 billion. In 2022, Ukraine, according to the January report of the NBU, received $32.1 billion of financial assistance. 12 billion of this amount was given by the United States, 8 billion - by the European Union. This year, Ukraine expects to receive $42 billion in financial assistance. This is $4 billion more than the draft State Budget ( $ 38 billion ).
In Ukraine, the losses from the war in such areas as infrastructure, education, energy, transport, trade and healthcare continue to grow. The total amount of damage caused to Ukraine exceeds $700 billion. Damage to infrastructure in February 2023 reached $143.8 billion. Damage to industrial facilities and production logistics increased to almost $50 billion. .7 billion dollars. The largest share of losses in the agricultural sector is due to the destruction and damage of agricultural machinery, as a result of which the estimated losses of producers amount to more than 4.65 billion dollars. In total, as a result of the war, 109.6 thousand units of agricultural machinery were damaged or destroyed. More than 4 million tons of destroyed and stolen agricultural products have been recorded. The combined cost of these losses is estimated at $1.87 billion. Agro-export is 70% of foreign exchange earnings from Ukraine's commodity exports.
The authorities continue to search for additional funds to fill the budget. Electricity tariffs for non-residential consumers will increase in Ukraine. Tariffs will increase in April and July 2023. The decision provides for two more stages of tariff increase:
from April 1 - up to 430.25 UAH /MWh
from July 1 - up to 485.1 UAH / MWh
In addition, a separate tariff for electricity transmission services for green electrometallurgy enterprises is set at UAH 209.42 /MWh.
Also, NCSREPU set new Ukrenergo tariffs for dispatching:
from April 1 - up to 80.87 UAH / MWh
As a result, prices will rise by 54.4-81.7% for the first voltage class and by 35.6-56.7% for the second. An increase in electricity tariffs for non-residential consumers will lead to an increase in the cost of production in general. Which in turn will cause another round of rising prices for goods and services in the country.
Apparently, electricity tariffs will also be increased for residential consumers. Currently, the government is preparing to raise electricity tariffs for the population. As Energy Minister German Galushchenko reported , this is necessary to restore the energy system after Russian attacks. NCSREPU Chairman Konstantin Ushchapovsky said that a revision of the electricity tariff for the population is already planned . “ Several options for establishing new tariffs for electricity are being considered. Among the options, the following can be distinguished: UAH 2.40 and UAH 2.80 per 1 kWh (recall, the current tariffs are UAH 1.68 per kWh for consumption over 250 kWh and UAH 1.44/ kWh with consumption up to the specified limit - valid until March 31, 2023.) The main thing here is to ensure the protection of vulnerable categories of consumers by developing appropriate targeted social protection programs ,” he said. K. Ushchapovsky added that after the shelling of power facilities, temporary schemes were applied to restore power supply to consumers. But it is impossible to ensure the passage of a new heating season by such schemes. The formal pretext for increasing the cost of electricity is the need to restore the energy system after Russian attacks. Andriy Gerus , Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Energy, Housing and Communal Services, said that the damage to the energy system is estimated at billions of dollars. Andriy Gerus also noted that the energy sector needs about UAH 40 billion to prepare for the winter. (just over $1 billion).
The situation around Ukraine.
Peace negotiations.
On April 26, a conversation between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, announced a month ago, took place. The Chinese Foreign Ministry says that the Ukrainian side was the initiator of the conversation between V. Zelensky and Xi Jinping. It was V. Zelensky who first initiated negotiations with Xi Jinping. To which China then answered evasively, and after the visit of the head of the PRC to the Russian Federation, these negotiations were postponed.
V. Zelensky said . According to the representative of the President of Ukraine Sergey Nikiforov, the conversation lasted almost an hour. The details of the conversation are not yet known. In turn, Xi Jinping said: " Dialogue and negotiations are the only viable way out of the Ukrainian crisis, and no one will win a nuclear war ."
The United States welcomes the fact that the head of the PRC, Xi Jinping, holds talks with the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky. Earlier, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that such a conversation would allow the Chinese leader to hear the Ukrainian view of the war, and not just the Russian position.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine may try to seize the opportunity and build his own dialogue with China, and thus win him over to his side.
At present, the PRC continues to promote the ideas of its peace initiatives. First of all, Chinese narratives about peace resonate in third countries (Latin America, Asia, Africa), where a war in Ukraine could cause an economic crisis. At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping is already actively using the President of Brazil for this process (offering to start negotiations and stop arms supplies to Ukraine), and also seeks to use the political ambitions of France and President Emmanuel Macron, who, after a visit to China, said that a peace plan was being prepared, which "will put Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table." The plan allegedly provides for the start of negotiations in the summer, it stipulates long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.
But the implementation of Chinese initiatives is categorically not accepted in Ukraine and, most importantly, in the United States. It is in the United States that they regulate the main military and financial assistance to Ukraine and, in fact, its ability to conduct resistance at the front. Stopping the supply of weapons, as proposed by the President of Brazil, will mean either freezing the conflict along the front line, or the defeat of Ukraine (if the Russian Federation seizes the moment and goes on an active offensive).
The United States presented a bipartisan draft resolution "On the position of the House of Representatives regarding the conditions for the victory of Ukraine." Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova announced this on her Facebook page .
The document notes that the US House of Representatives confirms:
● US policy is for Ukraine to defeat the (RF) invasion and restore its internationally recognized 1991 borders;
● After Ukraine's victory should be ensured through the integration of Ukraine into NATO and other Euro-Atlantic institutions, which is in line with the long-term US policy;
● The United States must work with its allies and partners to ensure:
- payment of reparations by the Russian Federation to Ukraine;
- assistance of the international community in the restoration of Ukraine;
- holding the leadership of the Russian Federation accountable for this aggressive war;
- restore justice for the victims of crimes committed by the Russian Federation during its invasion.
This initiative actually completely repeats the peace plan of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. And it is an attempt to legally fix in American law the conditions under which it is possible to end the war in Ukraine.
Now this issue has become relevant due to the fact that some of the elites in the world and in the United States are considering the possibility of negotiations with the Russian Federation or China, as well as the formation of certain agreements with them, which imply concessions from Ukraine (territorial or in terms of sovereignty).
The resolution on the position of the House of Representatives regarding the conditions for Ukraine's victory should rule out another scenario. So, for example, if in the future the new President of the United States, even if it is a Republican, will not be able to agree on the option of a peaceful settlement proposed by the Russian Federation or China. That is, this is an attempt to create a legal barrier in American law for any separate agreements with Putin's Russia. Which will allow to end the war only after the absolute defeat of the Russian Federation.
The adoption of this draft resolution is likely to be a rather complicated procedure, and it is not certain that it will be successful. Since the Republicans occupy the majority in the House of Representatives of the US Congress, they may oppose this decision. Because many of them understand that such a step in the future will significantly limit the room for maneuver of the future President from the Republican Party.
Military assistance to Ukraine. Prospects for a counteroffensive.
Western countries continue to supply Ukraine with financial assistance and weapons. At the same time, it is possible that the financing of Ukraine from autumn may encounter certain problems, which is due to the position of the Republican Party, which now dominates the US Congress. And without convincing victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front, the likelihood of the United States allocating new funds in comparable volumes is very small.
This week NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Kiev . His arrival was not announced in advance. Visit of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to Ukraine is political in nature. In particular, this is an attempt to reduce the wave of criticism against the Alliance, which is being dispersed by the Ukrainian leadership. The main main issue in relation to NATO for Ukraine today is membership in the Alliance and security guarantees. What President V. Zelensky spoke about at the meeting with J. Stoltenberg . J. Stoltenberg invited V. Zelensky to take part in the NATO summit in Lithuania (to be held on July 11-12). He expects that in Vilnius "members of the Alliance will reaffirm their support for Ukraine, which will be provided for as long as necessary." “Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO. We will make it possible,” J. Stoltenberg said . It is expected that at the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, the issues of Ukraine's membership and security guarantees will be among the priorities of the agenda. The team of President V. Zelensky hopes that following this summit, the Alliance will provide Ukraine with an action plan to prepare for NATO membership (MAP). Or, tentative dates will be announced when Ukraine will be able to become a NATO member without a MAP. But so far this looks unlikely, since the Western allies put victory in the war as a top priority for Ukraine, and only after that the question of joining NATO may appear on the agenda. What NATO Secretary General Jens again recalled during his visit Stoltenberg .
On April 21, a regular meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine took place at the Ramstein air base . Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during his speech that NATO has provided $55 billion worth of military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the invasion . He said that over the past few months, NATO has provided equipment and training to support nine more armored brigades for Ukraine.
US Secretary of Defense L. Austin also confirmed information previously circulated in the media that the Abrams would arrive in Germany to train Ukrainians over the next few weeks. In addition, Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that about 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers are currently studying in Germany. About 8,000 have already completed their studies and returned to Ukraine. Mark Milley believes that Abrams tanks are capable of influencing the course of the war in Ukraine, but are not capable of turning its course in the bud.
Minister of Defense of Latvia Inara Murniece announced the decision to transfer to Ukraine all the Stinger man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems that the Latvian side has .
Germany and the Netherlands will transfer mine rollers, vehicles and tankers to Ukraine. Ukraine, Poland and Germany during "Ramstein" signed a Letter of Intention to establish in Poland a Maintenance Center for Leopard 2 tanks, transferred by the allies to Ukraine. This was stated by Defense Minister A. Reznikov . The German concern Rheinmetall is building a military service center for weapons used in Ukraine in Romania. There will also be a tank repair plant in Poland.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine could succeed in a counter-offensive when it finds the right moment. He stated that NATO knows that Ukraine is capable of achieving success on the battlefield, and among the factors of this he named the “incredible” military support from the West in terms of its volume. “We have supplied more artillery weapons, more air defense systems, infantry fighting vehicles, tanks. And Germany has been the leading country in this support ,” he stressed.
Ukraine has already received 37 modernized T-72 tanks as part of military assistance funded by the US and the Netherlands. The Czech Republic is ready to increase the capacity of the modernization of T-72 tanks for Ukraine. The Czech Republic is ready to negotiate the establishment of a heavy equipment maintenance and repair center within the framework of the state enterprise VOP and several private companies. The Czech Republic also conducts exercises of Ukrainian fighters. By the end of this year, it is planned to train up to 4,000 soldiers. Now in Libava the third group is being trained, a total of 650 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Summit participants at the Ramstein base also discussed the need to strengthen Ukrainian air defenses. Kiev has been asking the allies for a long time to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Western-style fighters, but this request has not yet been supported. M. Milley said that "the most cost-effective" way to protect the Ukrainian skies is to develop air defense systems, and not to supply Western aircraft. Ukraine has enough air defense only to cover a few cities.
The prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive are still unclear. On the one hand, Western partners continue to provide significant military support to Ukraine. On the other hand, the range of weapons supplied is not capable of fundamentally turning the tide of the war. Therefore, it can be assumed that the counter-offensive is being delayed, among other things, due to a lack of necessary weapons, and not only because of weather conditions, as the allies say.
In particular, Ukraine expected that the meeting in Ramstein would also discuss the transfer of long-range missiles for 100 kilometers or more. Also, Ukraine has been asking allies for a long time to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with Western-style fighters, but has not yet found support for these requests.
Western media continue to say that the current supplies to Ukraine are not enough. The New York Times recalls, citing Pentagon leaks, that in February the delivery of tanks was delayed, and 200 tanks out of the promised 253 were delivered. And only 60 of them were Western-made. The Leopard tanks arriving from eight different countries fire different rounds, which means Ukrainians can't buy ammunition for their troops in bulk. Ukraine has enough air defense only to cover a few cities.
The US wants to make sure that Kyiv's offensive is successful, and the decision on when and where it will begin is Zelensky's, the White House said. According to the forecast of the former director of the CIA and the former commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, David Petraeus , the counteroffensive will take place in late May-early June and will be "damn strong", and the main blow will be aimed at cutting the land corridor to the Crimea.
The Crimean peninsula is increasingly being attacked by drones. So at night, sea drones attacked the city of Sevastopol. The "authorities" of the occupied Crimea reported that both drones were destroyed.
Also in the Crimea, explosions periodically occur, the nature of which is not always possible to clearly establish. So, for example, on April 22, air defense went off in the Kerch region, Russian military publications reported that this was due to a missile attack by the Ukrainian Grom complex. Officially, neither the Russian Federation nor Ukraine has confirmed this. The operational-tactical complex "Thunder" has been developed in Ukraine for several years, but has not been officially adopted for service. It is stated that the maximum range of destruction of its missiles reaches 500 kilometers and it can reach the Crimean bridge. Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry stated that it had already shot down Grom-2 missiles over Feodosia.
Export of Ukrainian products and the "grain deal".
Last week, Poland and Hungary officially banned the import of Ukrainian grain, explaining this decision by the protests of local farmers dissatisfied with the dumping price, and a transit ban was also introduced. It was a response to the protests of local farmers who were dissatisfied with the dumping price from Ukraine, which makes local products uncompetitive. In essence, for these countries, duty-free importation of Ukrainian products, even in transit, is a factor that reduces prices in the EU markets (and, consequently, this incurs losses for local farmers working in this market).
After negotiations with Poland, the ban on grain transit through Polish territory was lifted. But after Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria introduced a ban on the import of food products from Ukraine. And Romania will not only limit the import of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine, but will also introduce direct customs control of all agri-food products coming from Ukraine.
Against this background, Western media report that the European Commission, which previously decided to let Ukrainian grain into the EU without duties, is now preparing restrictions on the import of Ukrainian food throughout the European Union. At the same time, Poland proposes to the European Union to ban the import of not only grain from Ukraine, but also other products. Polish authorities want to include fruits, eggs, poultry, sugar and honey in the list. It becomes obvious that in economic terms, Poland acts from the position of not an ally, the main competitor of Ukraine. Hungary has expanded the list of agricultural products from Ukraine prohibited for import, in addition to grain, oil, meat, honey and flour have been added to the list, in total - 25 agricultural products and grains.
The European Commission plans to propose by the end of the year to ban the import of five agricultural products from Ukraine. European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski said that imports to the five countries would concern products such as corn, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower and sunflower oil.
“ We are very close to a good agreement that includes a temporary ban on five products, as well as an investigation in accordance with the safeguards provided for in the trade liberalization agreement with Ukraine. These and these measures can be used until June 5, so these regulations will expire from then on. But we know whether the new rules have been agreed, so these interim measures should also be extended, probably until the end of the year. The European Commission is open to such a possibility ,” Wojciechowski said.
If the European Commission is really preparing restrictions on the import of Ukrainian food throughout the European Union. In the future, the European market for Ukrainian agricultural products may be closed. And such actions indicate that in Europe Ukraine is considered as a competitor, and not a future partner. And if such tough protectionist measures are already being taken during the course of the war, then we can expect that the situation will worsen after it ends.
At the same time, if in May the Russian Federation does not extend the operation of the grain corridor in the Black Sea ports, then the situation for Ukrainian food exports (the main channel for the supply of foreign currency to the country) will become critical. Ukraine could lose up to $20 billion of its profits a year. Russia has repeatedly threatened to break off the grain deal. The last time it was extended on March 18. However, if Ukraine declares that the initiative has been extended for 120 days, then Russia - that only for 60.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
