After months of fighting over foreign aid, the US Congress finally passed a new $95 billion funding package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The package also included a provision that would require TikTok to either sell the social media app or face a ban and the transfer of confiscated Russian assets in favor of Ukraine. The package was sent for signature by US President Joe Biden.
Earlier, House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced his version of the legislation, which would split the aid for each ally into separate votes and then combine the bills back into a single package for the Senate. An earlier version of the bill, passed in February by the Senate, was not brought to a vote in the House.
In general, the resumption of consideration of the bill was officially justified by the Iranian air attack on Israel. Still, informally, it resulted from pressure from the American arms lobby on representatives of both parties in the US Congress. Also, continued assistance to Ukraine remains electorally attractive, including for Republicans. Strategically, both the United States and both its parties (both Democrats and Republicans) need to prevent the Russian Federation from winning the war in Ukraine since this would also be a geopolitical defeat for the United States, which would negatively affect D. Biden's chances of being re-elected but could intensify the domestic political crisis in the United States. The main thing is that this would be a defeat for the entire American state and a weakening of its role in Europe.
On Saturday, April 20, in the House of Representatives of the US Congress, a bill on providing military-financial assistance to Ukraine totaling $60.8 billion went through the most challenging voting procedure. Nevertheless, the law was passed - 311 congressmen voted for it, 112 voted against it. On Tuesday, April 23, the overall foreign aid package was finally approved by the Senate; it was passed with bipartisan support - 78 senators voted for it, 18 voted against it. Republican support for this round of foreign aid is up from just a few months ago. When the Senate voted on a similar deal in February, it passed 70 to 29, further highlighting the division within the Republican Party. This was previously demonstrated by the situation in the House of Representatives when a significant part of the Republicans (101 voted for and 112 against) supported the position of the White House and approved assistance to Ukraine without insisting on the critical position of its presidential candidate, D. Trump, regarding border security. In fact, with their help, D. Biden pushed his agenda through Congress, which was not a positive signal for D. Trump.
Long political debates in the House of Representatives between Democrats and Republicans around the allocation of aid to Ukraine ended in a convincing victory for D. Biden's team, which was able to defend its agenda in the House of Representatives - the adopted laws on foreign assistance are the main trigger for D. Biden's election campaign. At the same time, the migrant issue, promoted by D. Trump, remained unresolved. This significantly increases the chances of the current US President being re-elected.
Speaker of the House of Representatives M. Johnson, considered closest to the ex-president, played in favor of his opponents, which could ultimately deprive D. Trump of the presidency. At the same time, M. Johnson is likely to be able to retain his position. His actions to keep the government funded and send money to US allies give him support from Democrats.
The aid package to Ukraine ($60.8 billion) implies a transition to a loan system transfer of ATACMS long-range missiles and includes $49.9 billion for defense spending, $7.8 billion for budget support, $1.5 billion for economic assistance, and $400 million for border protection and humanitarian demining.
The law states that oversight is enhanced due to monitoring requirements; partners and allies are required to provide amounts of assistance commensurate with costs; an agreement with the government of Ukraine on the return of funds provided for economic support is envisaged; and limits within the PDA mechanism are increasing.
The first tranche of military assistance, which will include ammunition for air defense and artillery, may arrive in Ukraine within a few days of D. Biden signing the law.
The United States continues to be the leading donor of financial and military assistance to Ukraine, which Western partners cannot fully replace. Funding from the United States will significantly improve the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and help stabilize the front line, slowing the advance of Russian troops. Still, it is likely to continue this process partially. Taking into account the fact that the Russian Federation may have accumulated new reserves for a summer counter-offensive. Weapons supplies this year will amount to at most $20 billion. Last year, as Ukrainian President V. Zelensky said, the United States transferred $24 billion in aid to Ukraine. It is evident that large financial injections are also required to create a more reliable situation for Ukraine at the front compared to a year ago.
Providing military-financial assistance to Ukraine means that the United States is not leaving Ukraine. Without aid before the end of the year, it would look like the US was leaving Ukraine.
This also supports Ukraine's President V. Zelensky and his team. Without this help, the President would have faced a domestic political crisis, which would have been a sign that the United States no longer supported the Ukrainian government.
This will, among other things, simplify or stabilize the mobilization process, and it will be relatively successful. Of course, there will be no more people willing to join the army because of US assistance. But without it, people subject to mobilization would perceive it more aggressively and emotionally because they would understand that they would be sent to the front poorly armed. Now, the attitude towards mobilization will be more tolerant because there is hope for American weapons and assistance.
The new wave of mobilization is part of an agreement between the military and political leadership of the country, as well as the Western allies. Only by enshrining legislation and implementing new mobilization measures could Ukraine expect to receive new military and financial assistance packages. This will allow the country to hold out and maintain the balance and integrity of the front until the end of this year when the elections in the United States are over.
Western partners once again emphasized that they will help Ukraine only with weapons and do not expect to send troops there yet. NATO Secretary General J. Stoltenberg said that Ukraine must provide itself with soldiers, and the allies will continue to supply it only with funds and weapons. This statement resonates with the recent statement by French President E. Macron about the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine (most NATO countries did not support it).
Last week, Law No. 3633- IX of 04/11/2024, "On amendments to certain legislative acts of Ukraine on certain issues of military service, mobilization, and military registration," was signed by President V. Zelensky (we discussed this law in more detail in the previous issue) and published in the publication "Voice of Ukraine," this means that it will come into force in a month on May 18, 2024. From this day begins the countdown of 60 days, during which those liable for military service will need to update their data in the TCC, including those abroad. Otherwise, they are threatened with a stop to the provision of consular services and the issuance of passports. Approximately - approx. Six hundred fifty thousand men of fighting age are now abroad. Suppose the data needs to be updated within 60 days. In that case, administrative liability arises - fines from 17 to 22.5 thousand hryvnias, and, if the military registration and enlistment office wishes, deprivation of the right to drive a car through the court. Also, the military registration and enlistment office will be able to contact the police so that they can arrest the "violator."
The situation at the front remains difficult for Ukrainian forces. New US aid won't begin to impact the front lines for several more weeks. The problem will likely deteriorate for some time, especially if Russian forces escalate their attacks.
Given the shortage of weapons and personnel, the front line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could collapse this summer, causing large territorial losses. Now, Ukraine will be able to repel attacks more confidently, actively using shells that were previously saved. Assistance from the United States gives the Ukrainian Armed Forces the potential to contain the onslaught of the Russian Federation and largely preserve territory, pinning down Russian forces until European allies can provide additional assistance next year.
The adoption of a law on assistance to Ukraine by the United States could provoke the Russian Federation to attack faster than they planned. According to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, K. Budanov (in an interview with Air Force Ukraine), the situation at the front is not catastrophic, but problems will begin in mid-May. In particular, the Russian Federation may inflict several more severe blows to Ukraine's critical infrastructure. The Russian Federation mainly fights mobilized; virtually no professional military personnel with combat experience are left. In any case, Ukraine will face a problematic military summer when the Russian Federation will increase pressure at the front in several directions at once (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kupyansk direction).
At the front, the main battles are taking place in the Donetsk region in the Avdeevsky and Bakhmutsky directions. Russian troops are here. They are pressing along the entire front line, weakening the Ukrainian forces and looking for a weak spot, and they deliver the main blow there. In the area of Bakhmut, Russian troops are trying to advance towards the city of Chasiv Yar from the village of Bogdanovka and the village of Ivanovsky. The Russian Federation has gained a foothold in Bogdanivka, which will allow them to begin accessing the town of Chasiv Yar from the north, and this will worsen the already difficult situation in this area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The fighting occurs near Ivanivske, another "outpost" in front of Chasiv Yar.
In the Avdiivsky direction, Russian forces advanced to the settlement of Novokalinovo, and fighting occurred there. Ocheretino is a crucial defense center of the Ukrainian Armed Forces northwest of Donetsk, Russian troops. They made a breakthrough there and already captured part of the settlement. To the south, in the same area, battles for the village of Semenovka continue. To the southwest of Avdiivka, Russian troops broke through to the south of the town of Pervomaisky. To the west of Maryinka, the Russian Federation advanced between the settlements of Pobeda and the settlement of Georgievka. Also, The Russians occupied almost the entire settlement of Novomikhailovka, southwest of Donetsk.
In parallel, the Russian Federation continues its strategy of destroying the critical infrastructure of Ukraine; perhaps, they are counting on cutting off power to large Ukrainian cities and industrial centers. This week, there were many missile attacks, most of which hit the Odessa region, namely, port facilities. There were also several missile attacks on the Dnepropetrovsk region (particularly on the city of Kamensky) and the Zaporizhzhia region. The city of Kharkiv continues to be subjected to frequent shelling, which complicates the already difficult energy situation. It is possible that in the absence of the opportunity to capture the city, the Russian Federation decided to make it uninhabitable by constant shelling, provoking an outflow of the population. On April 17, the Russian Federation launched an Iskander attack on Chernihiv; the building of the Profsoyuznaya Hotel was destroyed (possibly military personnel were stationed there).
From the side of Ukraine, a blow was struck at the Russian military airfield in the city of Dzhankoy in Crimea; it is reported that the destruction of three launchers and the radar and air defense system of the S-400 Triumph. The strike could be carried out by ballistics (ATACMS) and Storm Shadow air missiles from the Kherson region. Sevastopol reported an attack by an anti-ship missile (probably Neptune). The Ukrainian Navy said the rare ship Kommuna, built in 1913, was damaged in Sevastopol. This is a rescue vessel designed to lift sunken submarines.
The Russian Federation also announced a large-scale attack by Ukrainian drones in the Belgorod, Kursk, Tula, and Bryansk regions. One drone was shot down over the Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga, and Moscow regions. In the Smolensk region, an arrival at an oil depot was reported.
The adoption of a new aid package from the United States could provoke significant personnel changes in Ukraine. In particular, personnel rotations are expected in the government, as well as the resignation of a whole series of ministers and deputy prime ministers, and the Prosecutor General.
The resignation of the head of government is not excluded. Still, given that the unblocking of aid to Ukraine occurred during the stay of Ukrainian Prime Minister D. Shmygal in the United States, this may influence the final version of the reshuffle. It is possible that the resignation of D. Shmygal and his potential replacement with the Ambassador of Ukraine to the USA, O. Markarova or M. Fedorov (Deputy Prime Minister for Innovation, Development of Education, Science and Technology - Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine), will not take place.
Options for personnel rotation continue to be discussed, and a final decision has not yet been made. New personnel changes will mainly be associated with ensuring progress in Ukraine's accession to the EU and with cost reduction (Government personnel may be reduced by 30%- 50%).
Likely, Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Irina Vereshchuk, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Nikolai Solsky, Minister of Education and Science Oksen Lisovoy, Deputy Prime Minister for Reconstruction of Ukraine - Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure Alexander will be fired Kubrakov, as well as Mustafa Nayema, who now heads the State Agency for Reconstruction and Infrastructure Development under the Ministry of Communities (after the Russian attack and the destruction of the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant). Both A. Kubrakov and M. Naem enjoy the support of the American Embassy. But, given the volume of questions that arose for both of them after the last flights to infrastructure facilities, for the protection of which significant funds were spent, their resignation is very likely. A. Kubrakov can be replaced by the current Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, Alexander Kamyshin. The former Minister of Finance and current Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States, Oksana Markarova, may be appointed as the first Deputy Prime Minister. Instead, the embassy in the United States will be headed by Dmitry Kuleba, who today holds the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs. Deputy Foreign Minister
will replace Andrei Sibiga.
The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy (which, after Alexander Tkachenko's resignation, does not have a full-fledged leader) may be disbanded and merged with one of the ministries.
US funding will help keep the hryvnia from falling. This week, The dollar exchange rate increased Ukraine's growth dynamics to a record level. So on April 19, on the Bloomberg platform, the American currency immediately rose in price on the interbank market by 27 kopecks from 39.64 UAH/$, ending the day with a transaction at 39.91 UAH/$. Record daily pace for April. Before this, the rate most often moved within 3-5 kopecks per day, and the maximum was last Friday when 25 kopecks raised it. As a result of trading, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its official exchange rate to a new maximum - up to 39.7879 UAH/$ (as of Monday, April 22). It has never gone so high; this week began with the official rate of 39.3990 UAH/$; the weekly increase was 39 kopecks. On Friday, the vast majority of banks set the cash dollar selling rate at their cash desks at 40 UAH/$ and higher.
Combat map.
The situation around Ukraine.
Western aid to Ukraine.
On Saturday, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill to provide military financial assistance to Ukraine totaling $60.8 billion. Three hundred eleven congressmen voted in favor, and 112 voted against.
Speaker of the House of Representatives M. Johnson put forward a package of four bills for a vote. To aid Ukraine, the package included funds for Israel, security assistance for Taiwan and allies in the Indo-Pacific region, and measures including sanctions, a TikTok ban, and the transfer of confiscated Russian assets to Ukraine (all of which were also approved).
The unfreezing of consideration of the bill was formally a consequence of Iran's air attack on Israel, and informally, it was the pressure of the American arms lobby on representatives of both parties in the US Congress and the continued electoral attractiveness for ongoing assistance to Ukraine (even among Republican voters).
On Tuesday, April 23, the Senate finally approved the overall foreign aid package; it was passed with bipartisan support - 78 senators voted in favor and 18 against. Republican support for this round of foreign aid has increased compared to several months earlier. When the Senate voted on a similar deal in February, it passed 70 to 29, further highlighting the division within the Republican Party. This was previously demonstrated by the situation in the House of Representatives when a significant part of the Republicans (101 voted for and 112 against) supported the position of the White House and approved assistance to Ukraine without insisting on the critical position of their presidential candidate, D. Trump, regarding border security. In fact, with their help, D. Biden pushed his agenda through Congress, which is not a positive factor for D. Trump. Speaker of the House of Representatives M. Johnson, considered closest to the ex-president, played in favor of his opponents, which could ultimately deprive D. Trump of the presidency. At the same time, M. Johnson is likely to be able to retain his position. His actions to keep the government funded and send money to US allies give him support from Democrats.
Ultimately, the passage of laws by Congress on the allocation of external funding to allies could seriously impact the US President's election. The lengthy political debate in the House of Representatives between Democrats and Republicans around the allocation of aid to Ukraine ended in a convincing victory for D. Biden's team, which was able to defend its agenda in the House of Representatives - the adopted laws on foreign assistance are the primary trigger of D. Biden's election campaign. At the same time, the issue of migrants, promoted by D. Trump, remained unresolved. This situation significantly increases the chances of the current US President for re-election since he is the one who collects the main political points of the vote that took place on Saturday.
The assistance package itself for Ukraine ($60.8 billion) implies a transition to a loan system for the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles and includes 49.9 billion for defense expenses, 7.8 billion - for budget support, 1.5 billion - for economic assistance, 400 million for border protection and humanitarian demining.
The law states that oversight is enhanced due to monitoring requirements; partners and allies are required to provide amounts of assistance commensurate with costs; an agreement with the government of Ukraine on the return of funds provided for economic support is envisaged; and limits within the PDA mechanism are increasing.
The first tranche of military aid, which will include ammunition for air defense and artillery, may arrive in Ukraine within a few days of D. Biden signing the law.
The United States continues to be the leading donor of financial and military assistance to Ukraine, which Western partners cannot fully replace. Funding from the United States will significantly improve the position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and help stabilize the front line, slowing the advance of Russian troops. Still, it is likely to continue this process entirely. Taking into account the fact that the Russian Federation may have accumulated new reserves for a summer counter-offensive. Weapons supplies this year will amount to at most $20 billion. Last year, as Ukrainian President V. Zelensky said, the United States transferred $24 billion in aid to Ukraine. It is obvious that large financial injections are also required to create a more reliable situation for Ukraine at the front than they were a year ago.
Providing military-financial assistance to Ukraine means that the United States is not leaving Ukraine. Without aid before the end of the year, it would look like the US was leaving Ukraine.
This also supports Ukraine's President V. Zelensky and his team. Without this help, the President would have faced a domestic political crisis, which would have been a sign that the United States no longer supported the Ukrainian government.
Internal situation in Ukraine.
Mobilization process.
Last week, Law No. 3633-IX, dated April 11, 2024. "On amendments to certain legislative acts of Ukraine on certain issues of military service, mobilization, and military registration" was signed by President V. Zelensky (we discussed this law in more detail in the previous issue) and published in the publication "Voice of Ukraine," this means that it will come into force in a month on May 18, 2024. From this day begins the countdown of 60 days, during which those liable for military service will need to update their data in the TCC, including those abroad. Otherwise, they are threatened with a stop to the provision of consular services and the issuance of passports. Approximately - approx. Six hundred fifty thousand men of fighting age are now abroad. Suppose the data needs to be updated within 60 days. In that case, administrative liability arises - fines from 17 to 22.5 thousand hryvnias, and, if the military registration and enlistment office wishes, deprivation of the right to drive a car through the court. Also, the military registration and enlistment office will be able to contact the police so that they can arrest the "violator."
This will, among other things, simplify or stabilize the mobilization process, and it will be relatively successful. Of course, there will be no more people willing to join the army because of US assistance. But without it, people subject to mobilization would perceive it more aggressively and emotionally because they would understand that they would be sent to the front poorly armed. Now, the attitude towards mobilization will be more tolerant because there is hope for American weapons and assistance.
The new wave of mobilization is part of an agreement between the country's military and political leadership and Western allies. Only by enshrining legislation and implementing new mobilization measures could Ukraine expect to receive new military and financial assistance packages. This will allow the country to hold out and maintain the balance and integrity of the front until the end of this year when the elections in the United States are over.
Western partners once again emphasized that they will help Ukraine only with weapons and do not expect to send troops there yet. NATO Secretary General J. Stoltenberg said that Ukraine must provide itself with soldiers, and the allies will continue to supply it only with funds and weapons. This statement resonates with the recent statement by French President E. Macron about the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine (most NATO countries did not support it).
Personnel rotations.
Adopting a new aid package from the United States may affect personnel policy in Ukraine.
In particular, personnel rotations in the government, the resignation of a whole series of ministers, deputy prime ministers, and the prosecutor general are expected.
According to representatives of the Parliament, they will dismiss "three or four ministers," including two certain deputy prime ministers, Prosecutor General Andrei Kostin, and "one or more" members of the Accounts Chamber.
It is likely that the Deputy Prime Minister for the Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories Irina Vereshchuk, the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Nikolai Solsky, the Minister of Education and Science Oksen Lisovoi, and also, “most likely” the Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, will be fired - Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure Alexander Kubrakov (after the Russian attack and destruction of the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant), he can be replaced by the current Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine Alexander Kamyshin. The former Minister of Finance and current Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States, Oksana Markarova, may be appointed as the first Deputy Prime Minister. Instead, the embassy in the United States will be headed by Dmitry Kuleba, who today holds the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs. Deputy Foreign Minister
will replace Andrei Sibiga.
The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy (which, after Alexander Tkachenko's resignation, does not have a full-fledged leader) may be disbanded and merged with one of the ministries.
Options for personnel rotation continue to be discussed, and a final decision has not yet been made. New personnel changes will mainly be associated with ensuring progress in Ukraine's accession to the EU and with cost reduction (Government personnel may be reduced by 30%- 50%).
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
