Analytical review of the week No. 140 of 21.11.2021.

Авторы публикации

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

15.11. - 21.11.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Bellingcat has published an investigation into the Wagnerian case.

2. Whipping up the military and "destabilizing" hysteria.

3. Resignation of the head of the State Property Fund.

4. The parliament agreed to consider the law on the capital with amendments in the next plenary week.

5. D. Razumkov reports about pressure on "their" people's deputies from the OP.

6. Sociology. Balance of trust and anti-rating of V. Zelensky.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Another aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

2. News of the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border.

3. Suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for formal legal reasons.

4. Online talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

ECONOMY.

1. "Vladimir’s one thousand hryvnia"

2. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

3. Continuation of total fiscalization.

4. "Big construction" can get another 2.5 billion hryvnia from the budget.

5. The EU expects Ukraine to take further steps for effective de-oligarchization.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First , the law on the capital, which continues the trend towards strengthening the power of the OP at the regional level, was agreed to be considered by the deputies with all the amendments in the next plenary week. The main purpose of the document is to delimit the powers of the mayor, elected by the townspeople, and the head of the Kyiv City State Administration, appointed by the president. One of the reasons for the postponement of voting on the law on the capital may be the lack of votes in parliament due to the influence of D. Razumkov on the voting of the deputies who are in his IFI.

Secondly , against the backdrop of the energy crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the consolidation of key financial and industrial groups against the President's Office, those surrounded by V. Zelensky realize that they are entering the winter season with a clear sense of the reality of a major political crisis and possible protests. Under these conditions, the authorities are beginning to hear statements about the military threat and possible internal destabilization in Ukraine by the hands of “Kremlin agents”.

Third , the Wagnerian investigation published by Bellingcat will not significantly affect the Office of the President. This investigation disappointed the opposition in the first place, since the text contains only a detailed description of the entire operation and only guesses about why it was thwarted. But even the accusations from the words of V. Burba, and especially their serious information promotion in Ukraine, could potentially be enough for the opposition to start organizing mass protests, with which it blackmails the current government. In any case, the reputation and support of V. Zelensky in the right political segment, where he was actively displaced by the team for the last year, was dealt a strong blow. It is highly likely that the original story with this investigation was used by the British special services and the government to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities in order to obtain benefits. Although there was no information about this in open sources, this conclusion may follow from indirect signs. If this is really so, it can be stated that the Presidential Office probably offered the British something that they were satisfied with and did not start the flywheel of information destruction of V. Zelensky. It is possible that this proposal was the purchase by the Ukrainian side from the British of two ready-made ships for the Navy and a deal to build several more ships at British shipyards.

Fourthly , this week the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict again escalated. The reason for this was a combination of factors, the main of which is the delay in the implementation of the paragraph of last year's peace agreements, which provides for the land communication of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia and the absence of demarcation of the eastern border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The escalation was stopped with the mediation of the Russian side, however, the conflict in the Caucasus will remain one of the potential hot spots on the world map for a long time to come.

Fifth , the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border began to bring political dividends to Minsk. This week Angela Merkel, despite the official lack of recognition of the legitimacy of the current Belarusian government by the FRG, twice spoke on the phone with Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition, Belarus is conducting direct negotiations with the EU on the settlement of the migration crisis at the border. In general, the situation looks like it will be Lukashenka who will emerge as the winner.

Sixth , “Vovina a Thousand” is, on the one hand, an attempt to directly bribe the voter, on the other, an attempt to lobby for the interests of a certain business (movie theater chains and fitness clubs), with the third, ordinary PR to maintain the rating, and on the fourth, preparation population for elections on the Internet, or rather - through the application "Diya".

Seventh , as of November 15, Ukrainian thermal power plants have 10 times less coal than the recommended level. In parallel, the authorities are “at war” with the enterprises of R. Akhmetov by means of fines and delays in payments regarding the generation of “green” energy. Another parallel process is the privatization of large enterprises such as the United Mining and Chemical Company (OGHK), about the sale of which the authorities are already worried about and proposes to further stimulate the auction participants. As predicted, in a belligerent country it is impossible to sell enterprises at a high price, if there are interested investors at all.

Eighth , total fiscalization continues due to inspections of large enterprises such as ArcelorMittal and tightening requirements for insurance companies regarding their transparency. The authorities want to cut costs by combining the Pension Fund and the Social Security Fund, which may ultimately lead to an imbalance and, as a result, loss of functionality and manageability of the newly formed structure. In 2021, the state filed about 500 lawsuits against the recipients of subsidies with a demand to return the money.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly:

The law on the capital, which continues the trend towards strengthening the power of the OP at the regional level, was agreed to be considered with all amendments in the next plenary week. The main purpose of the document is to delimit the powers of the mayor, elected by the townspeople, and the head of the Kyiv City State Administration, appointed by the president. One of the reasons for the postponement of voting on the law regarding the capital city may be the lack of votes in parliament due to the influence of D. Razumkov on the voting of the deputies who are in his IFI.

Against the background of the energy crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the consolidation of key financial and industrial groups against the Office of the President, the entourage of V. Zelensky realizes that they are entering the winter season with a clear sense of the reality of a major political crisis and possible protests. Under these conditions, the authorities are beginning to hear statements about the military threat and possible internal destabilization in Ukraine by the hands of “Kremlin agents”.

The Wagnerian investigation published by Bellingcat will not significantly affect the Office of the President. But even the accusations from the words of V. Burba, and especially their serious information promotion in Ukraine, could potentially be enough for the opposition to start organizing mass protests, with which it blackmails the current government. In any case, the reputation and support of V. Zelensky in the right political segment, where he was actively displaced by the team for the last year, was dealt a strong blow.

1. Bellingcat has published an investigation into the Wagnerian case.

This week, Bellingcat[1] published a full investigation into the likely disruption of the Wagnerian operation. It is noted that the idea of a special operation originated in 2018. During the operation, Ukrainian intelligence officers managed to take out of Russia dozens of the most significant militants of the Wagner PMC, allegedly involved in war crimes in the Donbass. By September 2019, the GUR MO had collected personal data from more than a thousand mercenaries. Investigators note that an important participant in the project was a former GRU middle-ranking officer who was arrested and recruited by Ukrainian intelligence in the "DPR" several years earlier. Investigators also talk about the second scenario of the plane landing at the airport in Ukraine - the threat of an explosion on board.

But at the same time, the Bellingcat investigation missed the answer to the main question: was there a leak of information about a secret special operation? And is the country's leadership involved in this, including President V. Zelensky and the head of his office A. Yermak. This investigation disappointed the opposition in the first place, since the text contains only a detailed description of the entire operation and only guesses about why it was thwarted. The only argument that can be used by opponents of the authorities within the country following the results of this investigation is that A. Yermak conveyed to the leadership of the special services the president's order to postpone the operation.

The investigation came out with a delay and partially lost its sensationalism, which could have happened at least on the eve of the conclusions of the Interim Commission of Inquiry on the Wagnerians, which were announced two days earlier. They came to the conclusion that the president did not give the order to stop the operation, and the chairman of the OP, Andrei Yermak, could not give such a command, because it was not his competence.[2] .

In the text of the investigation, there is no direct accusation of A. Yermak or V. Zelensky that it was they who leaked the information. Bellingcat draws attention to the fact that the Belarusian special services that detained the "Wagnerites" believed that they were planning to undermine A. Lukashenko's regime. That is, in fact, the emphasis is on the fact that Ukraine's special operation could have been thwarted by accident. As a result, the information released by Bellingcat will not significantly affect the Office of the President.

It is highly likely that the original story with this investigation was used by the British special services and the government to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities in order to obtain benefits. Although there was no information about this in open sources, this conclusion may follow from indirect signs. If this is really so, it can be stated that the Presidential Office probably offered the British something that they were satisfied with and did not start the flywheel of information destruction of V. Zelensky. It is possible that this proposal was the purchase by the Ukrainian side from the British of two ready-made ships for the Navy and a deal to build several more ships at British shipyards.

2. Whipping up the military and "destabilizing" hysteria.

This week, the media continued to whip up hysteria over "the accumulation of Russian troops near the Ukrainian-Russian border." President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said [3] that the concentration of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border raises concerns in the West about a possible Russian invasion of the country. Western countries conveyed information to Kiev that there are almost 100,000 Russian soldiers near the border with Ukraine. In addition, Western intelligence admits a "high likelihood of destabilization" of Ukraine by Russia this winter.[4] .

Earlier, a number of Western media reported about the accumulation of Russian troops on the Ukrainian-Russian border, while Ukraine itself denied this fact[5] .

The change in the position of official Kiev on the issue of "concentration of Russian troops on the border" is explained by internal political reasons. Against the background of the energy crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the consolidation of key financial and industrial groups against the Office of the President, the entourage of V. Zelensky realizes that they are entering the winter season with a clear sense of the reality of a major political crisis and possible protests. The specter of the threat of Russian aggression may serve as a pretext for stopping the protests and shifting all responsibility for the plight in the country onto the "agents of the Kremlin."

3. Resignation of the head of the State Property Fund.

On November 18, the Head of the State Property Fund Dmitry Sennichenko officially announced that he was leaving his post. D. Sennichenko noted that he had fulfilled all his plans for two years in the fund, and therefore "it is time to move on." He explained that the resignation is his personal decision. [6] .

One of the reasons for the resignation of the head of the State Property Fund may be the privatization of the Bolshevik plant in Kiev, which took place at a lower price than expected. In addition, only 3 participants came to the auction. The Bolshevik plant was sold by the State Property Fund at an auction as part of the Big Privatization. The buyer of the plant was General Commerce, having bought the lot for UAH 1.42 billion. In early November, the Antimonopoly Committee launched an investigation into the presence or absence of possible non-competitive actions of the auction participants. Sennichenko himself assured that the plant was sold in compliance with the necessary legislation. Also, the resignation of D. Sennichenko may be associated with the dissatisfaction of President Volodymyr Zelensky that the privatization process is poorly perceived by voters. V. Zelensky is concerned about the decline in his ratings, so he wants to restart the privatization process with a new leader.

4. The parliament agreed to consider the law on the capital with amendments in the next plenary week.

On November 18, parliament postponed consideration of the bill on the capital under a special procedure[7] . Previously, the bill was planned to be approved without considering amendments. But some of the people's deputies opposed such a scenario.

Rada Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk convened a meeting with the leaders of parliamentary factions and groups. They decided not to carry out the law according to a special procedure, but to consider it with amendments already in the next plenary week.

The law on the capital continues the trend towards strengthening the power of the OP at the regional level. The main purpose of the document is to delimit the powers of the mayor, elected by the townspeople, and the head of the Kyiv City State Administration, appointed by the president.

The law provides that the head of the Kiev city state administration cannot be the mayor of the city. Now both positions, according to the definition of the Constitutional Court of 2003, are occupied by Vitali Klitschko[8] . This is not like President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and members of his team, who perceive V. Klitschko, among other things, as a possible competitor in the presidential elections. Therefore, the OP is determined to take away the chair of the head of administration from the mayor. The Kiev City Council will be given the right to create its own independent executive body, which will guarantee the implementation of decisions. At the same time, the Kyiv City State Administration will be deprived of any economic functions. It will be turned into a law enforcement agency. The metropolitan authorities are against this.

It is possible that the consent of the "Servants of the People" to a postponement in the adoption of the law on the capital is due to the lack of votes for it. And here the process of adopting the law could have been influenced by the MFO of D. Razumkov. The deputies of this association could not have given their votes for the law on the capital, given that earlier D. Razumkov had worked as a political strategist V. Klitschko for several years.

5. D. Razumkov reports about pressure on "their" people's deputies from the OP.

This week, ex-speaker Dmitry Razumkov[9] announced pressure from representatives of the President's Office and the leadership of the Servant of the People faction on the deputies intending to join his inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics".

“I know that quite serious pressure is taking place both from the representatives of the President's Office and from the leadership of the Servant of the People faction directly on the people. Someone has already been fired from the heads of the subcommittees, someone is under pressure: If you leave the interfactional association, we will fire your relative. I think that such petty, low actions on the part of former colleagues are simply immoral, "D. Razumkov said.

Along with this, it became known that the people's deputy from "Batkivshchyna" V. Kabachenko withdrew his signature under the list of people's deputies who expressed a desire to enter the IFO D. Razumkov[10] . Thus, the union will have 24 deputies.

It should be noted that the conditional "Razumkov's Party" is showing positive dynamics so far . The results of the latest sociology showed that the party of the ex-speaker passed the 5% barrier and, with a result of about 8%, is approaching the four permanent leaders (SN, ES, OPZZH and Batkivshchyna), ahead of all other parties.

Therefore, the leadership of the Servant of the People faction really negatively perceives the fact that some of the deputies will now be oriented towards D. Razumkov, which, in fact, means the loss of a mono-majority in parliament. But, on the other hand, SN is not ready to expel such deputies from the faction, therefore it conducts a dialogue with them, which, among other things, does not exclude the use of various kinds of pressure.

As we wrote earlier, the further development of events will largely depend on the ratings of the conditional "D. Razumkov's Party", as well as on the availability of financial and media support. It is also important whether D. Razumkov will be able to organize the synchronous voting of his followers. If the ex-speaker succeeds, it will be possible to state the loss of a mono-majority in parliament and the actual formation of a deputy group (albeit without formal status), which in the future may compete with the ruling party and vote, contrary to the position of its leadership.

6. Sociology. Balance of trust and anti-rating of V. Zelensky.

This week, the Sociological Group "Rating" published a study[11] , according to which V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating - 23.1% of the respondents.

In comparison with the poll that was published by "Rating" a week ago, the president's rating has changed within the statistical error - (+ 1.3%).

The rating of trust in politicians is also headed by Vladimir Zelensky, 38% of respondents trust him, 59% do not trust him; balance: (-21%). For two weeks the balance has decreased (-1%, within the margin of error). Since September, the president's balance of trust has lost 23%. According to the "Rating" group, the level of confidence in the president was 50% (against 48%) and, accordingly, a positive balance (+ 2%).

The anti-rating of politicians is headed by P. Poroshenko: 44% would not vote for him under any circumstances. (in September it was 45%) (anti-rating -1%). V. Zelensky's anti-rating is 32% (in September it was 24%) (anti-rating + 8%).

The leader in the parliamentary rating is "Servant of the People" - 17.3% of the respondents. In comparison with the poll published by the "Rating" group a week ago, the party's indicator has changed within the margin of error - (+ 0.7%).

This is followed by:

• “European Solidarity” - 13.9% (unchanged).

• “Opposition Platform - For Life” - 10.7% (unchanged).

• "Batkivshchyna" - 10.1% (-2.1%).

• The Party of Dmitry Razumkov - 7.9% (+ 1.1%).

• The party of E. Muraev "Nashi" - 5.5% (-1.4%).

• “Strength and Honor” - 6.4% (+ 0.6%).

• "Ukrainian strategy of Groisman" - 5% (unchanged).

The rest of the parties do not overcome the 5% barrier.

The results of the study indicate that since September 2021, public confidence in the president has significantly decreased: the overall balance of trust has lost 23%, and his anti-rating has grown by 8%. As a result, almost a third of voters will not vote for V. Zelensky under any circumstances. In the party rating, the conditional "Razumkov's Party" is showing positive dynamics so far . The party of the ex-speaker overcomes the 5% barrier and, with a result of about 8%, is approaching the four permanent leaders (SN, ES, OPZZh and Batkivshchyna), ahead of all other parties.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

This week, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict escalated again. The reason for this was a combination of factors, the main of which is the delay in the implementation of the paragraph of last year's peace agreements, which provides for the land communication of Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia and the absence of demarcation of the eastern border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The escalation was stopped with the mediation of the Russian side, however, the conflict in the Caucasus will remain one of the potential hot spots on the world map for a long time to come.

The migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border began to bring political dividends to Minsk. This week Angela Merkel, despite the official lack of recognition of the legitimacy of the current Belarusian government by the FRG, twice spoke on the phone with Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In addition, Belarus is conducting direct negotiations with the EU on the settlement of the migration crisis at the border. In general, the situation looks like it will be Lukashenka who will emerge as the winner.

1. Another aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.

This week, the Transcaucasus was again troubled. The exchange of fire between the Armenian military and the Azeri ones began at noon on November 16. The piquancy of the situation was added by the fact that it took place not in Nagorno-Karabakh, two-thirds lost by the Armenians a year ago, but on the border of the internationally recognized territory of Armenia in the region of Mount Tsitsernakar in the Syunik region.[12] .

The border skirmish, of which there were many over the past year, quickly escalated into full-fledged hostilities with armored vehicles and artillery.

Sporadic skirmishes took place in most areas along the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These are the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, which came under the jurisdiction of Baku a year ago. The cannonade was heard in the Armenian city of Goris, one of the largest in the Syunik region of Armenia. The famous Lachin corridor, which connects Armenia with Stepanakert, starts from there.

On the day of the escalation of the shootings, the secretary of the Armenian Security Council Armen Grigoryan appealed to Moscow to defend the sovereign territory of Armenia, in accordance with a bilateral agreement of 1997. Moscow announced that it had not received a written request for help. In theory, the CSTO mechanisms can be used to protect Armenia, but the situation with the filling of the Collective Security Treaty in the region is not easy. Russia values its relations not only with Armenia, but also with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and therefore is in no hurry to get involved in a conflict with one of the parties, preferring to this the position of an "arbitrator". And it's worth noting that this tactic still works.

On the day of the aggravation of the conflict, the Prime Minister of Armenia appealed to his compatriots with an appeal to be ready "to defend the Holy Motherland." With all the skepticism of many Armenians towards this person, a simple and convenient opinion dominates in the country: Pashinyan is better than Kocharyan. The latter in a generalized form means several previous Armenian leaders who represented the so-called "Karabakh clan" and were famous for their corruption.

True, under them, the country did not know those military defeats that happened a year ago under Pashinyan. However, the fact that in the recent elections the voters' preference was still given to Pashinyan suggests that it will not be easy to “defend the Holy Motherland” if it comes to a real war.

On the evening of November 16, as a result of telephone conversations with the heads of the military departments of Azerbaijan and Armenia, held on the initiative of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Baku and Yerevan took measures to stabilize the situation in the border area, the Russian military department said.

In turn, the Ministry of Defense of Armenia reported that a truce was declared on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border with the mediation of Russia.

"In accordance with the agreement reached with the mediation of the Russian side, from 18:30 on the eastern section of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, the fire ceased, the situation has relatively stabilized[13] ", - the message says.

Thus, the Russian side nevertheless took an active part in the peaceful settlement, while not intervening directly in the hostilities.

Speaking about the reasons for the recent aggravation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, it should be noted, in addition to the eternal and existential nature of the confrontation between the two Transcaucasian peoples, that Azerbaijan seeks to get a land connection with an enclave called Nakhichevan cut off from its territory. Last year's peace agreements, concluded as a result of the so-called "second Karabakh war", provided for the unblocking of communication with Nakhichevan along the highway passing through the south of the Syunik region of Armenia. It was to be carried out under the supervision of Russian border guards.

However, due to the political instability that followed the military defeat of Yerevan, the Armenian side was in no hurry to fulfill this part of the agreements. In turn, there were calls from Baku to break through the corridor to Nakhichevan by force. Most likely, the recent aggravation was the result of a demonstration of the seriousness of intentions on the part of Azerbaijan.

2. News of the migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border.

On November 15, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko and outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel held telephone talks, during which they discussed the solution of the migration problem on the border of Belarus and the EU[14] .

"During the conversation, a number of problems were discussed, and, first of all, the situation with refugees at the Belarusian-Polish, Belarusian-Lithuanian and Belarusian-Latvian borders. The ways and prospects of solving the migration problem in order to prevent an escalation of the situation at the border were discussed in detail." - the Pool of the First Telegram channel, close to the presidential press service, reported on Monday.

According to him, Lukashenka and Merkel discussed support for refugees through the provision of humanitarian aid. They agreed on further contacts to resolve the situation.

And further contacts were really not long in coming.

On November 17, another conversation between Merkel and Lukashenko took place. As the Belarusian news agency "BelTA" informs, in the course of it, the parties came to a certain understanding of how to act and move on in resolving existing issues. The President of Belarus and Acting Chancellor of Germany that the problem as a whole is brought up to the level of Belarus and the EU, while the relevant officials to be determined from both sides will immediately enter into negotiations in order to resolve the existing problems[15] . In the same context, the wish of refugees to go to Germany will be resolved.

The very fact of negotiations between Angela Merkel and Alexander Lukashenko is extremely remarkable, since since the last presidential elections in Belarus, the EU countries have not recognized him as the legally elected president, supporting the fugitive candidate from the non-systemic opposition Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. But, as we understand, when solving real problems at the border, contacts with Tikhanovskaya are completely useless. Here one cannot do without negotiations with Lukashenka.

Inspired by negotiations with Merkel, the Belarusian leader decided not to slow down the pressure on the Europeans and on November 15 announced that Belarus was ready to send refugees stranded at the border with a direct flight to Munich[16] . The spice of this statement is made by the fact that, according to Lukashenka, such flights can be operated by the national airline Belavia, which is under the so-called “aircraft sanctions” imposed after the detention of opposition journalist Roman Protasevich in Minsk.

As for the migrants, on Tuesday some of them headed from the Belarusian-Polish border to the entrance to the Bruzgi checkpoint, where they will be accommodated in a logistics center in Belarus.

The logistics center is located one and a half kilometers from the Polish border. Bedding is distributed to migrants. There are also six field kitchens for preparing hot food.

Thus, Lukashenka cannot be blamed for the fact that “Belarus is starving migrants with cold and hunger”. In the meantime, the migrants eat their field porridge, the negotiations between Belarus and the EU continue.

3. Suspension of certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline for formal legal reasons.

On November 16, the German regulator temporarily suspended the certification procedure for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. For its renewal, it is necessary to create an operating company in accordance with German law[17] .

The Swiss-based operator must transfer the assets to a German subsidiary.

As noted in a statement posted on its website, the certification process will resume after the operator Nord Stream 2, based in the Swiss city of Zug, transfers the main assets and human resources to a German subsidiary and the regulator can check the newly submitted documents.

"When these requirements are met, the Federal Network Agency will be able to continue consideration during the remainder of the four-month period stipulated by the law, prepare a draft decision and, in accordance with the legislation on the internal market, send it to the European Commission for comment," the message says.

The regulator has already informed the German Ministry of Economy and Energy and the European Commission about the decision. In addition, before publication, it was brought to the attention of the participants in the procedure.

Against the background of the news about the suspension of the certification procedure for the gas pipeline in Germany, the spot price of gas increased on Tuesday to 1,046 and then to $ 1,100 per thousand cubic meters. The price of December futures on TTF on the ICE Futures exchange increased to 88.9 euros per MWh. In early November, the gas price was about $ 750 per thousand cubic meters.

Thus, a paradoxical situation is created. The Europeans, and specifically the Germans, who are putting up bureaucratic obstacles to the launch of Nord Stream 2 under pressure from the United States (Americans have been yelling for the third week about the possibility of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine), suffer the most from their actions, paying space prices for the gas that they it is necessary to buy in addition on short-term deals.

In recent weeks, the media wrote that thanks to the prohibitively high gas prices on the European market, Gazprom was able to recoup the costs of building Nord Stream 2 even before it was launched.

Taking into account the above-described bureaucratic delays, now the estimated completion date for SP-2 certification has shifted to April 2022. This may mean that gas prices in Europe will remain above $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters throughout the winter.

4. Online talks between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping held their first personal talks this week. They were held online.

The negotiations lasted 3.5 hours. Biden and Xi discussed bilateral relations, trade and the environment. A particularly important topic was Taiwan - a partially recognized state in the South China Sea, which Washington takes care of, and China considers its territory.[18] .

For the last month and a half, the PRC has been increasing military activity around the island. Chinese military planes fly into the airspace of Taiwan, Chinese ships pass along the coast. This is a response to the appearance of American instructors on the island.

According to the agreement between Beijing and Washington, there should be no American military forces and bases on the island. Of course, the American military is present in Taiwan, but behind the scenes. However, in recent months, Americans have increasingly begun to display their flag on the island, much to Beijing's annoyance.

Because of this, the military activity of the two nuclear powers has sharply increased around Taiwan, and their leaders have begun to throw more and more belligerent phrases. “I want China to understand: we will not back down, we will not change any views,” Joe Biden said at the end of October. "If Taiwan is attacked by China, the United States has an obligation to defend it."

After personal negotiations, the leaders of the two countries chose to put a good face on a bad game.

Specifically, Joe Biden stated, quote:

“It is our responsibility as leaders of China and the United States to ensure that rivalry between our countries does not turn into conflict. We need to identify topics where we disagree with each other and work in areas where our interests intersect. Especially on the most important topics such as climate change. "

Chinese President Xi Jinping, during a summit with US President Joe Biden, expressed hope that Washington's approach to China would once again become "rational and practical," Chinese media reported on Monday.

Xi Jinping hopes that President Biden will demonstrate political leadership to bring US policy towards China back to a rational and practical approach.

However, judging by all the previous actions and statements of the American side, these hopes of the Chinese leadership are not destined to come true. When the objective interests of two great powers in the struggle for influence and sales markets diverge, it is unforgivable foolishness to expect their peaceful coexistence.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

"Vladimir’s one thousand hryvnia" is, on the one hand, an attempt to directly bribe the voter, on the other, an attempt to lobby for the interests of a certain business (cinema chains and fitness clubs), the Internet, or rather - through the "Diya" application.

As of November 15, Ukrainian thermal power plants have 10 times less coal than the recommended level. In parallel, the authorities are “at war” with the enterprises of R. Akhmetov by means of fines and delays in payments regarding the generation of “green” energy. Another parallel process is the privatization of large enterprises such as the United Mining and Chemical Company (OGHK), about the sale of which the authorities are already worried about and proposes to further stimulate the auction participants. As predicted, in a belligerent country it is impossible to sell enterprises at a high price, if there are interested investors at all.

Total fiscalization continues due to inspections of large enterprises such as ArcelorMittal and tightening requirements for insurance companies regarding their transparency. The authorities want to cut costs by combining the Pension Fund and the Social Security Fund, which may ultimately lead to an imbalance and, as a result, loss of functionality and manageability of the newly formed structure. In 2021, the state filed about 500 lawsuits against the recipients of subsidies with a demand to return the money.

1. "Vladimir’s one thousand hryvnia"

On November 15, President V. Zelensky published a video message in which he promised all vaccinated citizens of Ukraine 1 thousand hryvnia through the Diya application[19] .

It will be possible to spend this amount only on a narrow list of services: subscriptions to a sports club, visits to cinemas, museums, concerts or tickets for transport within the country[20] . Political strategist Dmitry Raimov expressed the opinion that this initiative is the preparation of the authorities for the introduction of elections remotely, on the Internet.[21] .

In addition, this initiative is a veiled way to bribe voters. It is also very likely that with the help of the “Noble Thousand”, the government wants to bring an additional 3 million citizens out of the shadows in order to force them to pay taxes from May 2022.

This initiative has already led to a surge in fraud cases.[22][23] . On November 18, the Verkhovna Rada adopted draft law No. 6297 as a basis, providing for the allocation of UAH 3 billion in support of entrepreneurs in quarantine[24] .

2. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine

On November 15, only 370.3 thousand tons of coal were in stock at the TPPs' warehouses, which is half the guaranteed reserves and several times less than according to the fuel accumulation plan from the Ministry of Energy (there should have been about 3 million tons)[25] . There is only one unit in operation at Donbasenergo, and at Centrenergo - one unit each at the Zmievskaya, Uglegorskaya and Tripolskaya TPPs. In the same way - one unit at a time - it works at the Krivoy Rog, Pridneprovskaya, Luganskaya TPPs. At the Zaporizhzhya thermal power plant - 4 out of 6 blocks, Ladyzhinskaya - 2 out of 6, Kurakhovskaya - 6 out of 7 (all of them are part of the DTEK structure). President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his next video message once again promised that there would be no rolling blackouts. In addition to ship supplies, the company imports coal from Poland. In August, two agreements were signed for the supply of a total of 340 thousand tons.

A scandal is unfolding between the authorities and R. Akhmetov regarding payments for "green" energy. On November 12, Prime Minister Denis Shmigal on Friday ordered the head of the Guaranteed Buyer, Konstantin Petrikovts, to hold back the money for Akhmetov, but the latter disobeyed and signed a payment order on the proportional distribution of funds among all players, including DTEK[26] . On November 17, the State Enterprise "Guaranteed Buyer" announced that Oschadbank returned to its accounts UAH 3.04 billion intended for payments to producers of "green" energy. DTEK demands Rinat Akhmetov to pay off debts and prepares to pay damages in courts[27] .

On November 17, the National Energy Commission decided to impose a maximum fine of UAH 1.7 million on Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK Vostokenergo.[28] as a result of an unscheduled inspection of DTEK VOSTOKENERGO's compliance with the requirements of work on the electricity and heat production market over the 5 years of the company's activity. This fact corresponds to the logic of confrontation between the Office of the President and R. Akhmetov.

November 18, Ukraine stopped importing electricity from Belarus[29] .

On November 18, the State Property Fund (SPF) of Ukraine sent to the Cabinet of Ministers a draft order on providing additional guarantees to the winner of the tender for the sale of PJSC "United Mining and Chemical Company" (OGCC), scheduled for December 20, in order to increase competition and ensure a successful sale[30] .

On November 18, Zelensky told the head of the European Commission that Ukraine is ready to reduce the cost of gas transit[31] .

3. Continuation of total fiscalization

On November 17, searches were carried out at the place of residence of the financial director of Kryvyi Rih "ArcelorMittal"; he is suspected of tax evasion by the company for 2.2 billion[32] . Earlier this year, this enterprise was already under the scrutiny of the authorities.

The Verkhovna Rada at a meeting on November 18 adopted a new law on insurance[33] . Thus, the law changes the requirements for licensing insurers, assessing their solvency and liquidity, corporate governance and risk management, termination of activities of companies and transfer of insurance portfolio, etc. Insurers must have transparent ownership structures, disclose information about all owners of significant participation and key members of the company.

On November 18, an extraordinary meeting of the Verkhovna Rada on financial issues was closed ahead of schedule due to smoke on one of the voting consoles and against the background of a low turnout[34] .

On November 18, the Rada withdrew from consideration the tax bill No. 5600[35] . The bill was withdrawn from consideration at the suggestion of the Servant of the People faction. 314 MPs voted for this decision. The bill was on the agenda for November 17, but was pushed back to Thursday, November 18. By the second reading, the bill # 5600 had norms , thanks to which the tax burden on the extraction of iron ore may become even less than before its adoption. Thus, the confrontation between the authorities and R. Akhmetov becomes even more distinct. The authorities changed their minds to meet the businessman halfway, having withdrawn from consideration the bill # 5600 in its current form.

On November 18, the Verkhovna Rada failed to vote for bill # 5289, which was actually proposed to abolish the obligation to conduct simplified purchases in the Prozorro system from UAH 50,000. - this opens up opportunities for abuse in purchases in the amount of UAH 40 billion. in a year. The bill was sent for revision [36] .

On November 18, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the first reading the bill No. 3663, amending the Law of Ukraine "On Compulsory State Social Insurance" (new edition). With this bill, they want to unite the administrative structures of the Pension Fund and the Social Insurance Fund in order to reduce costs.

In 2021, a trend began to be traced in the claims of the state in order to receive the allocated subsidies to citizens back.[37] . As practice shows, justice sometimes takes the side of the recipients of subsidies and does not allow the withdrawal of previously issued money.

4. "Big construction" can get another 2.5 billion hryvnia from the budget.

On November 18, the Verkhovna Rada adopted draft law No. 6298 as a basis, which provides for the allocation of 2.5 billion from the 2021 state budget for roads, infrastructure subventions and for the national air carrier[38] . “Big construction” is both a PR for the president and a source of profit for core businesses, which may not be directly related to the president's entourage.

5. The EU expects Ukraine to take further steps for effective de-oligarchization.

On November 18, the Interfax-Ukraine agency had an exclusive interview with the head of the Ukraine Support Group in the European Commission, Deputy Director General of the EC Directorate General for Neighborhood Policy and Expansion Negotiations Katarina Maternova[39] . The EU expects further steps from Ukraine for effective de-oligarchization[40] . As a "carrot", the EU hopes to mobilize up to 7 billion euros of investments for Ukraine for 7 years, according to Maternova.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian woodworking enterprises face difficulties in purchasing raw materials - wood[41] . While Ukrainian furniture manufacturers are ready to export their finished products abroad, the government does not help private business in any way. The chaos in the Ukrainian timber market plays into the hands of European furniture manufacturers, which gain a competitive edge over Ukrainian manufacturers who face challenges in purchasing timber domestically.

Thus, the Ukrainian economy remains the economy of the so-called "peripheral capitalism", where the EU turns a blind eye to the deforestation of Ukrainian forests and is interested in curbing the development of the Ukrainian woodworking (furniture) business, which is a direct competitor to European manufacturers of furniture made of Ukrainian wood, and at the same time , The EU demands to continue and intensify the fight against Ukrainian oligarchs, who, unlike Ukrainian furniture manufacturers, have enough resources of various kinds to protect themselves from external attempts to restrain the development of their business.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/11/17/7314358/

[2] https://www.5.ua/ru/polytyka/kto-slyl-vahnerovtsev-parlamentskaia-vsk-v-ocherednoi-raz-ne-nazvala-vynovnikh-v-srive-spetsoperatsyy-prychyni-260695.html

[3] https://www.golosameriki.com/a/ukraine-says-russia-has-nearly-100000-troops-near-its-border/6312125.html

[4] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/11/15/7314028/

[5] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-denies-report-russian-troop-buildup-near-its-borders-2021-11-01/