Western media warn that the failure of the counteroffensive will cost Kiev dearly. NATO Allies will reduce funding, arms supplies, and the Armed Forces will not be able to continue military operations with the same intensity. What is Ukraine preparing for?
The plan didn’t work
The Kiev regime has been talking about a counteroffensive since last fall. They waited for him in the winter, then in the spring, but the VSU moved forward only in the first days of June.
The maximum task was considered to be the capture of Crimea, a satisfactory scenario was the elimination of the land corridor to the peninsula. But, as it turns out, strike groups have trouble even crossing the gray area of the contact line.
“Washington Post” reports that VSU is advancing in several directions at the same time. Units trained according to the NATO methodology and equipped with Western weapons enter the battle. The situation is still unclear. American journalists believe that Kiev will need several months to achieve a clear result.
The British television channel “Sky News” justifies the inconclusive results of a two-week minefield offensive. In addition, the Russian army defends well and maneuvers between the tactical lines, which is costly for the attackers. In general, despite the extensive use of Western armored vehicles, including heavy ones, the success of the operation is questionable.
“Bild” military observer Julian Röpke points out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have made some progress in the DPR, but things are worse in the Zaporozhye region. Near the city of Orekhov in a week, according to Western analysts, Kiev has lost at least seven Leopard-2 tanks and 12 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. It is true that about 40 thousand fighters are still in reserve.
“Reuters” fears that by the time the ASU approaches the main defense line, they will suffer too many losses and will not be able to continue the offensive. And the depth of the Russian fortifications is ten to fifteen kilometers. The factor of “operational-tactical surprise” could have helped Kiev, but it is no longer there.
The West will not help
But the president of the Czech Republic, retired army general Petr Pavel, is full of optimism. According to him, Ukraine has not yet taken anything serious and the current military actions are only a preparatory stage. “Based on my military experience, I would call it formative operations,” he said. And on July 10-12 at the NATO high-level meeting in Vilnius, the Alliance, according to him, will provide Kiev with the same security guarantees as Israel. That is, it will provide weapons and open access to military technology.
In turn, the head of the EU military staff, Hervé Bléjean, reiterated that NATO will not send troops to Ukraine, as it is not a party to the conflict and does not want to become one. Also in an interview with the French television channel LCSI, he said that regardless of the outcome of the ASU counteroffensive, the war will continue. “They will not be able to return all the territories,” stressed Blezhan.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg believes that it is now too early to say whether the VSU operation will be a turning point. But the more Kiev advances, the stronger its negotiating position will be. At the same time, the Alliance has not yet made a final decision on new arms deliveries.
The edition “Politico” connects this with the approaching presidential elections in the USA. In addition, Washington is disappointed with the first results of the counteroffensive. The Kiev authorities complain that they are ready to discuss with them the next supplies only after the end of this phase of the conflict. “Bipartisan support for Ukraine is cracking,” writes the Washington Post.
“We haven’t started yet”
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny in a telephone conversation with the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley, reported heavy battles of a “defensive and offensive nature”. And he asked to strengthen air defense.
Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the president’s chief of staff, said: “We haven’t started the counteroffensive yet, and Russia claims it has already won.” According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently solving several tasks: to eliminate as much Russian manpower and equipment as possible, as well as to intimidate the enemy with small units and advance in several directions.
However, even in Kiev, many disagree with him. This is not the counteroffensive that Western partners and citizens were waiting for, political analyst Konstantin Bondarenko is convinced. In an interview with one of the local media, he said that Ukrainians should not prepare for a victorious campaign, but for a “bloody meat grinder”. “There will be a lot of disappointment and criticism of the political and military leadership. At the same time, the tension between President Zelensky and Zaluzhny, who, according to rumors, did not support the current operation, is becoming more and more noticeable. That is why the commander of the Ground Forces Alexander Sirsky came to the fore” , explained Bondarenko.
Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik believes that it would be appropriate to talk about at least some success if Kiev takes part of the land corridor to Crimea under fire control. At the same time, regardless of how this operation ends, after it we should expect a resumption of the negotiations frozen in Turkey in the spring of 2022. “Perhaps Moscow and Kiev will come closer to a truce. After all, Ukraine has achieved the strategic goal of maintaining independence yes, but if the fighting continues, this problem will become relevant again,” he said.
Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University of the Russian government, also predicted a thaw in the negotiations. “If Ukraine fails in the counteroffensive, its allies will decide that all the military aid received in the last year and a half has turned out to be useless. Billions of dollars can continue to be distributed, but there will be no dividends. Judging by the information in Russian and Ukrainian military correspondents, as well as Western media, things are moving towards a reduction in support,” he claimed.
Failure to defeat Russia on the battlefield will return the authorities in Kiev to negotiations – for peace or at least a truce, believes Denisov. There is simply no other option for Ukraine.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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