The situation in Ukraine. April 23-30, 2025.

1. The situation around the peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

So far, negotiations on the end of hostilities in Ukraine are going slower and more difficult than the team of US President Donald Trump expected. And most likely, the White House's report on the first 100 days of D. Trump's presidency will so far lack the achievement of peace in Ukraine.

Currently, intensive behind-the-scenes bargaining continues around the peace process regarding possible concessions by the parties, the White House administration is increasingly making it clear that in the event of a failure of the negotiations, it may withdraw from the process. This is a signal of pressure, primarily aimed at European partners and Ukraine. The main argument of the United States is that it has invested too much resources and time without getting a tangible result. In fact, the United States is unequivocally warning that if the current negotiations do not lead to an agreement, support for Ukraine – both military and financial – could be suspended. This will lead to the continuation of the conflict, but on much more unfavorable terms for Ukraine. Consequently, future ceasefire negotiations will take place with the weaker positions of the Ukrainian side.

At the moment, it is obvious that there is no real constructive agreement between the United States, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and its European allies on the issue of ending the war. Neither Moscow nor Kiev, as direct participants in the conflict, have shown a willingness to compromise that could lead to a sustainable peace. Instead, the parties are engaged in a diplomatic game, trying not to be held responsible for the failure of the peace initiative.

The negotiation process is complicated by the fact that its main participants (the United States, the Russian Federation, Ukraine) demonstrate a variety of interests regarding the end of the war. Without flexibility and a willingness to make concessions, the likelihood of a sustainable agreement remains very low.

The United States is under the pressure of time and the need to achieve a political result for its voters (D. Tamp's report is being prepared for the 100 days of his reign - May 1, the report itself should be released around May 20), which is reflected in the tough rhetoric of Donald Trump and his team. Especially on the issues of territorial concessions and neutral status, which also slows down progress.

On April 26, 2025, the day of Pope Francis' funeral at the Vatican, President of the United States of America Donald Trump and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a brief but meaningful meeting at St. Peter's Basilica. It was their first face-to-face interaction since a tense meeting at the White House in February of this year. The meeting lasted about 15 minutes and was described as "very productive". President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that the discussion was "potentially historic", with a focus on achieving a full and unconditional ceasefire and establishing a lasting peace.

After the meeting between V.Zelensky and D.Trump in the Vatican, the rhetoric of both sides has noticeably changed. In the Ukrainian public space, discussions about possible amendments to the proposed US peace plan have practically stopped. At the same time, Donald Trump's statements have a more benevolent tone towards Ukraine, while at the same time increasing criticism of the Russian Federation. This gave rise to speculation that the Ukrainian side could agree in principle to the terms of the peace agreement proposed by the US administration.

Recall that the meeting took place against the backdrop of growing disagreements between the United States and Ukraine over the peace plan proposed by the Donald Trump administration to end the war. According to Western media, the plan includes the recognition of the annexed Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea as part of the Russian Federation and the actual preservation of Moscow's control over the territories of four Ukrainian regions occupied by the Russian Federation - Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions Ukraine a small part of the Kharkiv region occupied by Russia, as well as the ability for Ukrainian ships to freely pass the Dnieper River, which flows along the front line, in southern Ukraine.

Thus, the main points of the US peace plan include:

1. Ceasefire

• An immediate and sustainable cessation of all hostilities is envisaged.

• The parties undertake to start negotiations on the introduction of a mechanism for the implementation of the ceasefire immediately after its announcement.

2. Security guarantees

• Ukraine receives formalized guarantees of its security.

• The functions of guarantors will be assumed by leading European countries and, if desired, states from other regions.

• Kyiv undertakes not to apply for NATO membership.

• At the same time, Ukraine retains the right to seek accession to the European Union.

3. Territorial status

• The United States officially recognizes Crimea as the territory of the Russian Federation.

• Russia's de facto control over the city of Luhansk is also recognized.

• The US administration fixes Russia's current line of control over parts of the Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

• Ukraine is regaining certain areas in the Kharkiv region.

• Control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is transferred to Ukraine through the technical mediation of the United States, including the distribution of electricity in both directions. It also provides for the restoration of Ukrainian control over the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

• The Ukrainian side receives the right of unhindered passage along the Dnieper, as well as control over the Kinburn Spit.

4. Economic parameters

• The United States and Ukraine conclude a separate agreement on strategic economic cooperation, including the joint development of mineral resources.

• Ukraine must be rebuilt through international aid and compensation.

• All sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation since 2014 in connection with the conflict are subject to lifting.

• It is also planned to launch bilateral US-Russian cooperation in the fields of energy and industry.

 

The Trump administration has proposed that the Russian Federation return the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to Ukraine (which will then probably come under the de facto control of the United States as part of the agreement on natural resources). With regard to the reduction in the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the work of the military-industrial complex, the United States believes that Ukraine has the right "to be able to defend itself", that is, they opposed one of the demands of the Russian Federation for the conclusion of peace - to reduce the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the work of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.

At the same time, the plan involves Kiev's obligation to abandon Ukraine's membership in NATO and the lifting of sanctions imposed on Russia after 2014, including in connection with the annexation of Crimea, and the expansion of economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United States, "especially in the energy and industrial sectors." At the same time, Ukraine "could" join the European Union.

For his part, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky confirmed that following the talks in London, US President Donald Trump has a new version of the "peace plan" on his table. "Everything that contradicts our values or our Constitution cannot be in any agreements," the President stressed.

In particular, it is reported that in the new document proposed by the Ukrainian side, the stated position of Ukraine does not correspond to what Washington has already agreed with Moscow. Thus, in the text of the document, Ukraine stated that it would not discuss territorial issues until a "complete and unconditional ceasefire." That is why the American delegation did not see the point in holding talks in London on April 23, where only the special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, was present from the United States.

According to the Western press, the new "peace plan" of Ukraine and its European allies consists of five main points:

1. Ceasefire

• Both sides commit themselves to an immediate and complete cessation of hostilities in the air, on land and at sea.

• At the same time, the process of technical implementation of the agreement is being launched with the mediation of the United States of America and European countries.

• The ceasefire monitoring mechanism will be coordinated by the United States and a group of third countries.

• The Russian Federation is obliged to return all illegally removed Ukrainian children. An all-for-all prisoner-of-war exchange must be carried out, and all civilians held must be released.

2. Security of Ukraine

• Ukraine must receive effective security guarantees, including U.S. participation in a bilateral agreement that is essentially close to Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

• No restrictions on the number and development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are expected.

• The guaranteeing states will be key European countries, as well as partner countries outside Europe that have expressed their readiness to participate.

• The presence of foreign allied military contingents on Ukrainian territory is not limited.

• Ukraine maintains a strategic course towards membership in the European Union.

3. Territorial issues

• Any territorial disputes will be resolved after the final establishment of the ceasefire.

• The basis for such negotiations will be the current line of actual control.

• Ukraine must regain control over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant with the participation of the United States, as well as over the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant.

• A free navigation regime along the Dnieper River must be ensured and Ukrainian control over the Kinburn Spit must be guaranteed.

4. Economic cooperation and reconstruction

• Ukraine and the United States will conclude an agreement on an enhanced economic partnership with an emphasis on the extraction and export of strategically important natural resources.

• We are talking about a full-scale recovery of the Ukrainian economy, which will be financed, among other things, by frozen Russian assets. These assets will remain blocked until reparations are paid.

• The sanctions regime imposed by the United States since 2014 can be eased only after a lasting peace is established and with the possibility of automatic restoration of sanctions in case of violation of the terms of the agreement.

As for the credibility of the publications of peace plans in the Western press, it can also be noted that they may not fully coincide with the current position of European partners and Ukraine to the White House and are more aimed at discrediting Donald Trump in the eyes of Western societies.

But at the same time, it can also serve as a signal to the President of the United States himself from the European and British elites that he will not be able to resolve the Ukrainian issue without their direct participation.

We add that in any case, Ukraine does not want to become the main culprit for the disruption of peace talks, therefore, on the one hand, they demonstrate loyalty to the proposal from the United States, and on the other hand, they do not yet voice a real readiness for certain concessions. Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stressed Ukraine's commitment to peace initiatives proposed by US President Donald Trump. He noted that Ukraine is ready for a complete and unconditional ceasefire as the first step towards sustainable peace.​

The negotiation process is also becoming more complicated on the part of the Russian side. On April 25, 2025, the fourth meeting since the beginning of the year was held in Moscow between the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and the Special Representative of the President of the United States Stephen Whitkoff. Details of the negotiations mostly remain undisclosed, official sources limited themselves to brief statements. However, following the meeting, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said: "During the conversation with Trump's envoy Whitkoff, Vladimir Putin repeated that the Russian side is ready to resume the negotiation process with Ukraine without any preconditions."

But after that, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the previous ultimatum conditions of the Russian Federation to end the war with Ukraine - they contradict the US peace plan.

In particular, on April 28, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in an interview with the Brazilian edition of O Globo voiced the following demands:

• Ukraine does not become a member of NATO, its status is neutral and non-aligned;

• international recognition of "the Russian affiliation of Crimea, Sevastopol, the so-called "DPR" and "LPR", Kherson region and Zaporizhzhia", that is, the recognition of all Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia;

• the "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine;

• the lifting of sanctions and the return of frozen Russian assets;

• "overcoming the consequences of the rule of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev, formed as a result of the putsch in February 2014", which allegedly "destroyed everything Russian" in Ukraine – language, media, culture, traditions and "canonical Orthodoxy".

• The day before, S. Lavrov also rejected the proposal to transfer control over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to the United States and Ukraine. Which contradicts the previously announced plan of the Donald Trump administration.

Moscow also does not remove the condition for the cessation of Western military assistance to Ukraine for a ceasefire.

Voiced by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the demands of the Russian Federation actually repeat the ultimatum of the beginning of the war and indicate Moscow's intention to raise the stakes. This creates significant difficulties for US President D. Trump. Since the acceptance of the conditions of the Russian Federation will undermine the reputation position of D. Trump and will look like a concession. And a new round of pressure on the Russian Federation - the strengthening of sanctions and the continuation of assistance to Ukraine - will be regarded as a recognition of the correctness of the course of the Democrats and ex-President D. Biden, who is hostile to the new White House Administration.

Probably, in order to soften his ultimatum statements, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day truce in honor of the 80th anniversary of the victory in World War II - from midnight on May 7 to midnight on May 10. Which, in principle, can be regarded as a PR stunt that does not affect the essence of the negotiation process itself.

Russia's tough position allows Ukraine and its European allies, primarily France and the United Kingdom, to more actively promote the thesis of the Kremlin's inability to negotiate. Continuing the information game of "who will be the first to "fail" the negotiation process in the eyes of the US President", Ukraine called on Russia to declare a truce now and for 30 days, not 3.

In turn, the White House reacted to the "3-day truce" of V. Putin, saying that President D. Trump wants a permanent ceasefire. They also said that D. Trump is more and more disappointed "with both V. Putin and V. Zelensky."

The U.S. administration is currently considering several possible scenarios for further action.

In particular, if the United States and Russia do not come to an agreement, there may be an escalation of pressure on Moscow, including a tightening of the sanctions regime. Despite the current phase of negotiations, US President Donald Trump has not yet lifted the sanctions imposed under the Joe Biden administration, which indicates the preservation of these measures as an instrument of foreign policy pressure.

The United States, if necessary, can also take steps to increase pressure on Kiev and Brussels, including reducing or suspending military and financial assistance, in order to induce them to agree to the terms of the ceasefire. If the proposed peace plan is abandoned, the responsibility for security and possible escalation of the conflict will fall on European countries, especially Poland and the Baltic states.

The United States may refuse to further participate in the settlement of the conflict at all if it believes that none of the parties - Ukraine, Europe or Russia - is not sufficiently constructive. The US President clarified that in the absence of progress, the decision to withdraw the United States from the negotiation process will be made in the coming days.

2. The situation around the deal on the use of natural resources.

The situation around the Ukrainian-American deal on the use of natural resources remains uncertain. According to a previously published memorandum, the coordination of the strategic agreement between Ukraine and the United States of America was supposed to be completed on April 26, 2025. However, the process was delayed.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal previously stressed that the draft subsoil agreement will not take into account the assistance already provided by the United States. "The main thing is that we have clearly defined our red lines. The document must comply with our European obligations, not contradict the Constitution and legislation of Ukraine and be subject to ratification by the parliament. An agreement has been reached that the previously provided assistance will not be counted," the head of the Ukrainian government said.

A new impetus in the development of the situation was given by the information that Ukraine is ready to sign a subsoil use agreement in the near future. Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko, according to sources, is heading to Washington to sign the relevant document. According to the draft, the agreement provides for the creation of conditions for expanding investments in the Ukrainian mining industry, the energy sector and related technologies.

Later, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal also said that the agreement on strategic cooperation in the field of subsoil use between Ukraine and the United States of America would be signed in the next day. Following this, it is planned to conclude two additional executive agreements regarding the creation of an investment fund and mechanisms for its financing. These documents should consolidate the institutional framework for attracting American investment in the extractive sector and related sectors of the Ukrainian economy.

It is worth noting that the deal on the use of natural resources is also part of the peace process. Despite the State Department's statements that the resource deal is not directly related to peace talks, in the context of ongoing hostilities, it is difficult to talk about large investments in mining and infrastructure projects. If the White House believes that it will be extremely difficult to agree with the countries of Europe and Ukraine to end the war, and the situation does not lead to the restoration of peace, The American side itself can postpone the conclusion of a deal on natural resources. Because in the context of ongoing hostilities, the Trump administration will not want to enter into a direct conflict with the Russian Federation, which, in fact, will attack US property on the territory of Ukraine. Therefore, the very fact that the United States signs a subsoil deal with Ukraine will be a sign of a possible truce and cessation of hostilities.

3. Russia and the DPRK officially confirmed the participation of the North Korean military in hostilities on the side of the Russian Federation in the Kursk region.

On April 26, 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry officially recognized the participation of North Korean troops in the battles in the Kursk region. The representative of the department, Maria Zakharova, said that the DPRK troops fought with Ukrainian forces within the framework of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea. "The solidarity shown by our Korean friends is a manifestation of the high, actually allied level of our relations," Zakharova added.

The Kremlin confirmed that Russia can also provide military assistance to the DPRK in accordance with a bilateral military treaty, said the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation D. Peskov.

On April 28, North Korea also officially recognized the participation of its troops in the battles in the Kursk region for the first time.

The United States criticized the participation of the DPRK in the war against Ukraine in the Kursk region. A spokesman for the US State Department said that North Korea and other third countries "contributed to the continuation" of the war and "are responsible for it." "We remain concerned about the direct involvement of the DPRK in the war. The DPRK's military deployment in Russia and any support provided by the Russian Federation to the DPRK in response must be stopped."

He claims that Russia's training of North Korean soldiers violates numerous UN Security Council resolutions, which collectively impose a broad ban on providing or receiving military training or assistance to or from the DPRK.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "the soldiers of the DPRK helped the Russian Federation repel the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in full accordance with international law."

In general, the official recognition of this fact has several goals: a demonstration of the Russian-North Korean alliance, public gratitude to the DPRK, as well as the creation of conditions for expanding the participation of the North Korean contingent. A possible increase in the number of North Korean troops is considered as a way to relieve Russian forces, including by protecting the border military instructors on the territory of the DPRK. This also strengthens the strategic interaction between Russia and China, given the existence of a defense alliance between the DPRK and the PRC.

The participation of the DPRK on the side of the Russian Federation and Moscow's readiness to expand military cooperation with Pyongyang give Ukraine a reason to further promote the topic of the formation of the Moscow-Pyongyang-Beijing "axis", even if formally the PRC does not participate in hostilities. Ukraine regularly accuses China of military cooperation with Russia, including the supply of dual-use goods, components for drones, as well as the participation of Chinese citizens in the Russian army. given the allied relations between Beijing and Pyongyang.

4. Military operations.

Over the past week (April 23-30, 2025), Russian troops have captured another 25 square kilometers. Ukrainian territory and now controlled - 112,638 square kilometers.

In the Kursk region , Ukrainian troops were ousted from almost the entire territory of the Kursk bridgehead, Ukraine now continues to control an insignificant part of it about 17 square kilometers.

In the north of the Sumy region , 82 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory are located in the gray zone (Novenke, Basivka, Zhuravka, Veselovka). Russian troops are trying to reach the village of Yunakivka, as well as enter the village of Vodolagi (northwest near the border), but Ukrainian troops still retain control over the situation.

The most active battles are taking place in the Pokrovsky direction. There are already signs of increased activity of the Russians at the junction of the Pokrovsky and Toretsk areas in the Donetsk region, where they managed to "fail" the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

To the east of Pokrovsk, in the areas of Elizavetovka, Tarasivka and Staraya Nikolaevka. The situation is especially difficult in the area of Tarasivka, where Russian troops have almost completely captured Vodiane Vtoroye and Zelene Pole. Russian troops have occupied the village of Nadezhdovka, which complicates the position of Ukrainian forces in the Nadiivka-Kotlyarovka-Bogdanovka section. Heavy fighting continues here, the enemy is trying to destroy Ukrainian positions before the advance of the infantry. Preobrazhenki and Kotlyarovka are a zone of active hostilities with the constant use of drones and artillery.

In the Kurakhove direction in the Donetsk region, Russian troops advanced north of Constantinople, as well as near the highway south of Toretsk.

To the south-west of the city of Toretsk, the Russian troops occupied the settlements of Kalinovo and the settlements of Sukha Balka, advanced near the settlements of Berezovka and the settlements of Tarasivka.

In the Zaporizhzhia direction, Russian troops advanced in the area of the village of Kamianske and in Dniproenergia (southwest of the Donetsk region).

Maps of military operations.

Donetsk region.

Kursk region.

5. Large-scale missile attack by the Russian Federation on Ukraine.

On the night of April 23-24, 2025, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation launched one of the largest massive missile and drone strikes on the territory of Ukraine in recent months. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk and Khmelnytsky regions were hit.

According to the official information of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia used 215 units of various types of weapons, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. The main blow fell on the capital of Ukraine - the city of Kyiv. The air defense forces of Ukraine, with the support of F-16 (USA) and Mirage (France) fighters provided by Western allies, managed to intercept and destroy 112 air targets. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that as a result of the night shelling, 48 out of 70 missiles fired and most of the 148 drones were shot down.

The most severe consequences were recorded in the Sviatoshynskyi district of Kyiv, where 12 people were killed and 70 were injured of varying severity as a result of a missile hit near residential buildings. The Shevchenkivskyi district of the capital, where the Lukyanivska metro station was damaged, and industrial facilities that were previously shelled, in particular, the defense industry enterprises of the Artem State Enterprise, were also affected.

In Kharkiv, 14 kamikaze drone strikes and 10 missile attacks were recorded. Critical infrastructure facilities were damaged, including the railway junctions of Ukrzaliznytsia in the Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions, railway employees were injured. Residential buildings, medical and educational institutions were destroyed.

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation said that the target of the strike was the facilities of the "aviation, rocket and space industry of Ukraine, the production of rocket fuel and gunpowder." Ukrainian officials did not confirm this information.

Reaction of the Ukrainian leadership and Western partners.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after receiving information about the consequences of the attack, ended his official visit to the Republic of South Africa ahead of schedule. On behalf of the head of state, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense were obliged to turn to international partners for additional support for air defense. The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, publicly stated that the reason for the large-scale destruction is the lack of modern air defense systems capable of coping with such massive attacks.

Reaction of the United States.

US President Donald Trump condemned Moscow's actions. On his social network Truth Social, he wrote:
"I am unhappy with Russia's strikes on Kyiv. It was completely unnecessary and extremely untimely. Vladimir, stop! Every week 5000 soldiers die. Let's finally make a peace agreement!"

This strike by the Russian Federation on Ukraine can be interpreted as a demonstration of the readiness of the Russian Federation to continue hostilities in the event of Ukraine's refusal to participate in peace initiatives. Particular attention is drawn to the fact that the massive shelling followed immediately after an unsuccessful round of negotiations in London on April 23, 2025, where the Ukrainian delegation, in fact, rejected the American plan for resolving the war proposed by the White House.

6. The risk of Ukraine's default in May 2025: negotiations on debt restructuring.

On April 24, 2025, the Financial Times reported on the possible risk of Ukraine's default due to unsuccessful negotiations on the restructuring of external debt. We are talking about a debt of $2.6 billion on the so-called warrants tied to gross domestic product (GDP).

In May 2025, Ukraine is due to make a payment of $600 million on securities related to the economic results of 2023. In the event that agreements with holders of GDP warrants are not reached in a timely manner, Kyiv will be forced to consider the scenario of a technical default.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has previously warned about the risks associated with this category of liabilities. In particular, the IMF pointed out in official materials that "if the situation with GDP warrants is not resolved, they pose a serious risk to the sustainability of the current $15.5 billion aid program, as well as to the consequences of the restructuring of Ukrainian debt in the amount of over $20 billion, carried out in 2024."

The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine confirmed the existence of difficulties in the negotiation process. The official statement of the department indicates that it was not possible to reach an agreement with investors on the May payment of $600 million.

The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine noted that the existing warrants were developed in a different economic reality, and GDP growth in 2023 does not reflect a full-fledged recovery.
"Ukraine's moderate GDP growth in 2023 does not indicate economic prosperity - it is only a fragile recovery after almost 30% of the drop caused by the full-scale war of the Russian Federation against Ukraine," the Ministry of Finance said in a statement.

The Ukrainian side insists that such financial obligations should not hinder economic recovery.
"Our goal is to find a fair and comprehensive solution to this issue," the statement of the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine emphasizes.

As part of the proposed decision, the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance offered holders of about 30% of GDP warrants to exchange them for an additional issue of Eurobonds placed as part of the 2024 restructuring, or to change the terms of the issue of GDP warrants. In particular, it was proposed to cancel payments for 2025-2028 and extend the period of the possibility of their redemption or cancellation until May 2029.

In response to this offer, a group of investors offered Ukraine a partial payment of 75% of the planned payment and the issuance of new debt obligations. The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine rejected this option and expressed its readiness to continue negotiations.

 

 

Ruslan Bornik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics