Friends, I decided to bring some clarity on the situation around the "peace talks" between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and the "strangeness" (at first glance) of the behavior of the parties.

1. Both sides continue to raise the stakes in the remote negotiation process, taking an increasingly uncompromising stance on political negotiations, but using different strategies.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have achieved an operational breakthrough and are retaining a tactical military initiative, trying to transform it into a strategic one until significant masses of mobilized Russians arrive at the front (November-December). During the week, Ukrainian troops continued their successful counter-offensive in the main 2 directions - on the border of the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions (near the cities of Svatove and the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk agglomeration) and in the north of the Kherson region (near the cities of Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka).

On October 4, at the Hungarian Embassy in Ukraine, with the support of the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Hungary to Ukraine, Istvan Iydjarto, the presentation of the analytical study "SEVEN SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE: from triumph to decline" was held, which was prepared by experts from the Ukrainian Institute of Politics (UIP). Analytical work was presented by: Director of the UIP Ruslan Bortnik and experts of the UIP - Denis Gaevsky, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko.

• Partial mobilization in the Russian Federation (and the adoption of new mobilization legislation), as well as a sharp acceleration in the pace of the so-called. "referendums" in the occupied territories are markers of an attempt to transform the Russian strategy in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and, probably, its transition to a New phase.

As a result of the ongoing hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, the country has already suffered significant economic damage. According to the government of Ukraine, the total amount of material losses, confirmed by the World Bank, is more than 340 billion dollars. The amount of funds that has been verified and is needed for recovery is about $105 billion.

The Office of the President of Ukraine proposed the concept of a system of international security guarantees for Ukraine. Recommendations on security guarantees for Ukraine were developed on behalf of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and were presented by Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak and 12th NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

Against the backdrop of military failures, the Russian Federation announces partial mobilization and intensifies the issue of holding the so-called. "referendum" on the entry into the Russian Federation of the occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.