The constructive peace process regarding Ukraine is currently in a state of stagnation, primarily due to the absence of any real positive negotiating dynamics and any convergence of the parties’ positions. Various statements by political leaders about the allegedly “imminent end of the war” (both from Russian President V. Putin and Ukrainian President V.

The events of the past week demonstrate that the situation surrounding peace negotiations on Ukraine can be described as an escalatory deadlock. On the one hand, formal negotiation activity continues; on the other hand, it is producing no results and is increasingly being replaced by the logic of pressure.

This week we observed a series of developments that collectively deliver a significant information and political blow to the position of the President of Ukraine.

Apparently, at the international level, an implicit consensus is forming around Ukraine in favor of continuing the war at least in the medium term — on a horizon of up to two years. The negotiation process has effectively been put on pause: substantive decisions have been postponed, at least until autumn — the period of the U.S. congressional elections.

Germany and France offer Ukraine  an interim status on the way to EU membership, which involves gradual integration without a full set of rights.