ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK
22.02. - 28.02.2021
CONTENT:
INTERNAL POLICY.
1. The parliament returned the competitions for the civil service, expanding the powers of the acting. ministers.
2. Sentence to Sergei Sternenko. Protests at Bankova Street.
3. Unsuccessful blocking of 426 Internet portals. Meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.
4. Sociology. Changes in the presidential and parliamentary and ratings.
5. Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the creation of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities.
FOREIGN POLICY.
1. New unrest in Armenia. The General Staff spoke in favor of the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
2. Changing trends in US-Saudi relations.
3. The talks between Putin and Lukashenko have highlighted controversial issues in relations between Russia and Belarus.
4. Canadian parliamentarians adopted a statement accusing China of "genocide of Muslims."
ECONOMY.
1. Approaching global inflation. $ 1.9 trillion Democratic stimulus package.
2. Arrest of pipelines indirectly connected with V. Medvedchuk.
3. The London High Court dismissed Tatneft's claim for $ 294 million against Kolomoisky and Bogolyubov.
INTERNAL POLICY.
Briefly:
The main domestic political events of this week were:
Approval of a bill on the resumption of competitions for holding civil service positions, a conviction to Sergei Sternenko, blocking of more than 400 Internet resources, a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, as well as the creation of a Congress of local and regional authorities.
All of them are a continuation of several trends:
The government continues the trend of increasing pressure and intimidation of political and economic opponents, as part of this process: blocking of Internet resources, Anatoly Shariy's wanted list, non-interference in the case of Sergei Sternenko, a law was introduced to parliament on the establishment of criminal liability for collaboration activities, the NSDC is conducting another meeting, the initiative of the Crimean platform. As a result of this trend, we can note a decrease in the ratings of the main political competitor - "OPL".
In the trend of establishing one's own control over public administration structures, a law is being adopted to resume competitions for holding civil service positions, which expands the powers of the acting president. ministers, and, in essence, makes it possible to put "their" people in government posts bypassing parliament. The creation of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities is also initiated to establish control and influence on regional elites.
1. The parliament returned the competitions for the civil service, expanding the powers of the acting. ministers.
On February 23, the Parliament adopted bill No. 4531 on the resumption of competitions for holding civil service posts
The law was adopted taking into account the proposals of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who proposed expanding the powers of acting. ministers
The President insisted that the norms on limiting the execution of powers by deputy ministers be removed from the law if the post of minister is vacant. This situation has arisen due to the fact that the Ministry of Energy remains without a head for a long time, for about a year there has been no full-fledged head there. With the return of the acting minister of full-fledged leadership of the ministries, the situation will no longer be so painful for the OP. The duties of the minister are performed by Yuriy Vitrenko, who on the second attempt could not be appointed First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Energy
On January 28, Yuri Vitrenko received the support of the deputies of the group of influence of Rinat Akhmetov, but was left without the votes of the deputies from Igor Kolomoisky. At the first vote, the situation was radically opposite.
There are rumors that some kind of agreement was reached between Yuri Vitrenko and Rinat Akhmetov, according to which the oligarch could later receive preferences in the energy sector in exchange for votes for appointment and further loyalty. If such an agreement really took place, in addition, it is worth mentioning the exclusion of Alexander Dubinsky from the Servant of the People faction, then the absence of votes from the Privat group for the appointment of Yu. Vitrenko is quite understandable.
The figure of Yuri Vitrenko as head of the Ministry of Energy is so far the only option most acceptable to the authorities, despite the fact that the acting himself. Head of the Ministry of Energy is not particularly keen on this position now. It is possible that in the Office of the President they cannot find a candidate who at the same time has well-established relations with Western partners, balances all energy players and at the same time is in opposition to the head of Naftogaz of Ukraine, Andrey Kobolev.
In fact, the adoption of the bill on the resumption of competitions for holding civil service posts with the president's amendments allows the OP to return the tool for placing loyal people in government posts bypassing parliament.
2. Sentence to Sergei Sternenko. Protests at Bankova Street.
This week, on February 23, the Odessa court in the case of kidnapping and torture of a person appointed the ex-leader of the Odessa "Right Sector" Sergei Sternenko and his associate Ruslan Demchuk to 7 years and 3 months in prison with confiscation of half of the property. Sergei Sternenko is charged with the abduction and torture of the deputy of the Kominternovsky District Council Sergei Shcherbich in 2015.
In the near future, procedural completion of two more indictments is expected: Sergei Sternenko is accused of premeditated murder of Ivan Kuznetsov, a resident of Chernomorsk, in May 2018. There is a drug case opened in December 2017. It is noted that he came to the attention of the employees of the Office for Combating Illicit Drug Trafficking back in 2013.
Some Ukrainian politicians and figures spoke out in support of Sternenko. After the verdict was passed, riots broke out near the building where the meeting was held. In the evening, protests were held near the President's Office
Close to the ex-president "Rukh support of the capital" and "Demsokira", close to the ex-president, took an active part in the protests, on the eve of Petro Poroshenko condemned the guilty verdict
And the parliamentary faction of the Golos party announced the collection of signatures for the resignation from the post of Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova
Recently, Sergei Sternenko moved in the circles of pro-Western liberals and enjoyed their patronage. They will probably try to involve the US Charge d'Affaires in Ukraine Christina Queen in his defense.
, on the eve of her neutral position on this case, the organizers of the protest actions were shocked. Accordingly, the reaction of Western partners to the trial is still not completely clear.
It should be noted that earlier the trials against Sergei Sternenko were blocked with the participation and pressure from right-wing radical groups. The public played an important role in the fact that the Sternenko cases did not finally "stall" - some lawyers, deputies and journalists actively raised this topic in the media.
The possible reason that the verdict became possible right now was the fact of the closure of TV channels and the imposition of sanctions against the opposition of the southeastern flank. Now the authorities are trying to build a balance and show the society that similar measures can be applied to the opposite side. Largely due to the fact that the new government did not interfere in the course of the case, the completion of the trial became possible.
At the same time, it is expected that Sergei Sternenko's supporters will regularly gather protest actions, increasing pressure on the courts and the President's Office. The aim will be to get the conviction overturned on appeal, as well as to demonstrate to the authorities that an attempt to prosecute nationalists will be accompanied by serious street pressure. Because the Sternenko sentence means a precedent for every "activist" who has gone beyond the law.
3. Unsuccessful blocking of 426 Internet portals. Meeting of the National Security and Defense Council.
On February 25, the National Commission for State Regulation of Communications and Informatization announced that access to 426 Internet portals would be closed in Ukraine. The ruling was adopted by the Goloseevsky Court of Kiev in the framework of a fraud case. Later it became known that law enforcement officers decided to close the specified criminal proceedings and, at the same time, to cancel the seizure of intellectual property rights. Also, the prosecutor's office initiated an official investigation in connection with the actions of officials of the Goloseevsky police department during the investigation
But as a result, some of the sites were indeed blocked.
On the same day, February 25, the SBU put Anatoly Sharia on the state wanted list, since he did not appear to participate in the interrogation as a suspect
Earlier on February 16, Anatoly Shariy was informed about suspicion under the article on high treason and violation of the equality of citizens.
Despite the fact that the case of treason Sharia legally has no prospects, this situation may serve as a pretext for repressive actions against his party or media assets.
The Verkhovna Rada introduced a bill No. 5144 on the establishment of criminal liability for collaboration activities
The bill will allow the liquidation of legal entities whose authorized persons cooperated with the aggressor state, and establishes additional legal grounds for the liquidation of political parties, public, charitable or religious organizations, trade unions and public formations, whose authorized persons carried out such cooperation.
The purpose of this bill may be the desire to erode the legal field of Ukraine as much as possible, expanding the concept of "high treason" and other similar crimes in the environment of public administration, so that this "blur" can be used against any non-loyal public organization, political structure, but also a citizen of Ukraine. This bill can be viewed as another political instrument of influence on political and economic opponents and competitors.
On February 26, the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine held a regular meeting, which considered the strategy of de-occupation of Crimea, as well as the application of a number of sanctions. The Cabinet of Ministers was instructed to develop a bill on the detection of Ukrainians with dual citizenship
In addition to the fact that the initiative of the Crimean Platform is a public relations action by the authorities before the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's Independence, it can pursue the following goals:
- informational and political actualization of the Crimea topic on the world agenda, in connection with which Ukraine may ask for new military and economic resources or certain political concessions.
“Ukraine is also trying to involve other countries that are absent in the Normandy Four into the problems of this region. First of all, the United States, Canada, Turkey to put pressure on Russia, and the possible creation of new sanctions or a common position in international courts, through a common information position.
Moreover, Ukraine is trying to combine the Crimean agenda with the conflict in Donbass, which could lead to the necessary freeze of political negotiations on Donbass for Ukraine. An attempt to withdraw from the Minsk process without being accused by a party of disrupting peace negotiations.
All of the above events can be considered in one trend in the further implementation by the authorities of the policy of “tightening the screws” aimed at intimidating and suppressing opponents against whom cruel measures are used, sometimes even not entirely illegal.
4. Sociology. Changes in the presidential and parliamentary ratings.
On Wednesday, February 24, the Sociological Group "Rating" published a sociological study
(the poll was conducted on February 22-23), according to which Vladimir Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating with a result of 23.1%. Rating since the beginning of the month (21.2% according to "Rating")
has not changed significantly, but shows a slight positive pullback (+ 2%) in the overall decline.
The second place is taken by P. Poroshenko -14.4%, his rating demonstrates the dynamics of decline. At the beginning of the month - 16.4% ("Rating"). The result differs by 4% from the KIIS data published last week - (18.3%,). But it almost corresponds to the results that KIIS published in December-January (13-14%). In general dynamics, P. Poroshenko's rating is relatively stable.
Yuriy Boyko - 11.3%, - a significant sharp decrease in the rating by almost 6% since the beginning of the month - 17.1% ("Rating").
The rating of trust in politicians, in which for some reason there are only six persons, is also headed by Vladimir Zelensky, 44% of respondents trust him, 54% do not trust him. Compared to the beginning of the month, the level of trust has grown from 38% to 44%. But in the overall dynamics, the president's confidence rating shows a rollback rather than a general change in the downward trend that has been observed since November 2019.
The positive dynamics is demonstrated by the trust rating of Dmitry Razumkov. 29% trust him, 33% do not trust him, another 32% do not know him. Since the beginning of the month, the trust rating has grown by 3%, and the distrust has decreased by 3%.
The leader in the parliamentary rating is "Servant of the People" - 19.7%. Since the beginning of the month, the rating (18.6%) has not changed significantly (+ 1%), and the party takes the first place rather due to a decrease in the rating of its main opponent - "OPL". Since the beginning of the month, the party "OPL" has lost 4.7% and dropped from first to third place with a result of 14.2%. The second place is now occupied by "European Solidarity" - 16.2%, the dynamics does not show significant changes.
In the general trend of the presidential rating, there is a slight positive pullback in the overall dynamics of the decline in the rating of Vladimir Zelensky. Since the beginning of the month, there has been a decrease in support for the candidate from "OPL" and the party itself in the parliamentary rating. The reason for this could be the closure of TV channels. At the same time, E. Muraev is present in the presidential rating, who could pull off a part of Y. Boyk's electorate. Due to the fall in the rating of "OPL", "Servant of the People" again takes first place. At the same time, it should be noted that various rotations will periodically occur in the leading three of the parliamentary rating, since there is no longer any separate leadership in the person of Servant of the People.
5. Volodymyr Zelenskyy initiated the creation of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities.
This week, during a meeting of the Council for the Development of Communities and Territories in Kiev, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the creation of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities under the President.
It is assumed that the Congress will become a platform for discussing local and regional problems at the highest level in order to find effective solutions. The general meeting of the Congress will be held every six months or on demand, the presidium will meet monthly. The first global issue on which the attention of the new body will be focused should be the preparation of the Municipal Code of Ukraine.
At the same time, the president emphasized that the central and local authorities are not competitors or rivals, but partners and one team.
In the trend of increasing influence of local regional elites, in local elections in almost all large cities, starting from regional elites or winners or showing 2-3 results, this initiative of the OP can be regarded as an attempt to establish control and influence on a potentially strong opponent. The Congress of Local and Regional Authorities can act as a competitive project in relation to the Association of Ukrainian Cities, which is headed by Vitaliy Klitschko, one of the possible competitors of Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the presidential elections. According to a sociological survey published in early February by KIIS
Vitali Klitschko is already 2% ahead of the incumbent in the trust rating. Therefore, the authorities are faced with the task of intercepting initiatives in this segment, first of all, from the main competitor - Vitali Klitschko, as well as, in general, to establish their control over all regional elites.
FOREIGN POLICY.
Briefly:
In international politics, the outgoing week has seen a change in the US approach to relations with Saudi Arabia, expressed in the refusal to cooperate with Crown Prince Mohammed ibn Salman. At the same time, there was a tendency to involve the US NATO allies in information pressure on China. Canada joined US accusations against Beijing this week of "Uyghur genocide".
In Armenia, meanwhile, political instability continues and opposition attempts to force Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign.
1. New unrest in Armenia. The General Staff spoke in favor of the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
On February 25, officers of the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces signed a collective letter in which they called on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resign. Pashinyan himself accused the military of "attempting a coup d'etat" and issued a decree on the dismissal of Chief of the General Staff Onik Gasparyan. However, Armenian President Armen Sarkisian is in no hurry to sign this decree1.
Political instability in the country has continued since 2018, when a representative of the liberal forces, Nikol Pashinyan, came to power as a result of street protests. His main opponents are representatives of the so-called Karabakh clan. Natives of this region distinguished themselves in the conflict with Azerbaijan in the early 1990s and for nearly thirty years formed the basis of the military, political and economic elite of Armenia. Representatives of this group, traditionally loyal to Russia, lost their positions as a result of Pashinyan's cleansing.
The armed conflict that happened last autumn led to the defeat of Armenia, the loss of most of the territory of Karabakh, and further weakened the position of the Karabakh clan. Since November, protests by the Armenian opposition have continued in the country, demanding Pashinyan's resignation. In particular, he is accused of deliberate defeat and betrayal of national interests.
On February 24, Deputy Chief of the General Staff Tiran Khachatryan laughed at Pashinyan's words about the inoperability of the Russian Iskander tactical complexes, for which he was immediately dismissed. In response, the General Staff issued a special statement in which it protested over Khachatryan's resignation, stated that the government was no longer able to make adequate decisions in crisis conditions and demanded Pashinyan's resignation. The statement was signed by the heads of the General Staff, the heads of all its directorates and the commanders of the main military formations.
In response, Pashinyan dismissed the head of the General Staff, Onik Gasparyan, ordered the defense minister to nominate new army commanders and urged his supporters to take to the streets. However, only a relatively small number of Pashinyan's supporters took to the streets, the General Staff demanded the resignation of the prime minister for the second time, which was joined by the left opposition Dashnaktsutyun party, and the center-right Prosperous Armenia party stated that “while Pashinyan still has the opportunity to leave office by political means ”. Former President Robert Kocharian, one of the leaders of the Karabakh clan, called on citizens to rally around the army.
External forces reacted differently to what is happening in Armenia. The leadership of Russia, in particular, the president, the minister of defense and the minister of foreign affairs, in conversations with their Armenian counterparts called what was happening as the country's internal affair and spoke in favor of resolving the situation in the legal field. In turn, Turkey strongly condemned the anti-Pashinyan protests.
Currently, street demonstrations of supporters and opponents of the current government continue in the country, and most likely the situation has reached an impasse. Pashinyan's party "My Step" has 62% of the seats in parliament, and therefore it will not be possible to dismiss him only with the votes of the opposition. The prime minister had already withstood the pressure of the army and the streets in November, when immediately after the signing of the ceasefire, which recorded the loss of control over Karabakh by Yerevan, the opposition also demanded his resignation.
Based on this, we can conclude that the situation will develop in the following scenarios: either the authorities and the opposition find a certain compromise scenario that provides for early elections and guarantees of Pashinyan's security, or the latter will resist, refuse to leave, and in this case the country is threatened with a protracted internal political crisis. Given the militarization of society and the mass depression caused by the defeat in Karabakh, this crisis can develop in an extremely negative way. In any case, in the medium term, serious internal political instability is likely to remain in Armenia.
2. Changing trends in US-Saudi relations.
It became known this week that the administration of US President Joe Biden is reconsidering relations with the leadership of Saudi Arabia. White House spokeswoman Jane Psaki said the American leader would work directly with the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdel Aziz, and not with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, as was the case during the presidency of Donald Trump.
The change in US course towards Saudi Arabia is a continuation of the policy of resetting relations between the two countries. Earlier, Washington suspended the arms deal that Riyadh signed with the Donald Trump administration. The new US administration believes the partnership with Crown Prince Ibn Salman is a diplomatic challenge that runs counter to promises of human rights progress and US interests around the world, as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is responsible for the war in Yemen and the murder of a journalist. Jamal Khashoggi.
On February 25, it became known that the United States is going to release a report on the investigation into the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which will touch upon the involvement of Crown Prince Ibn Salman in this story2. This intelligence report was released on 26 February. In it, Ibn-Salman is directly accused of involvement in the murder of Khashoggi3.
Following this, Joe Biden imposed sanctions against 76 Saudi Arabians. At the same time, Washington decided to abandon tough measures against Crown Prince Mohammed ibn Salman, who is accused of organizing the massacre of the journalist.
On the morning of February 26, US President Joe Biden and the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdelaziz, discussed by phone the state and prospects of bilateral ties4. It is significant that Biden decided to speak with the current king, and not with the crown prince, who actually leads the state. This circumstance is a consequence of the new US approach to relations with Saudi Arabia, which is to negate contact with the "toxic" prince, instead focusing on interaction with the king.
Australian newspaper Kurier this week revealed details of the Biden administration's new approach to its relationship with Saudi Arabia. As the newspaper writes, the new US administration will not work with persons involved in crimes against humanity and war crimes, in accordance with the promises made by Joe Biden during his election campaign. In addition, she encourages the Saudi Arabian authorities to make progress in the field of human rights protection, hinting that this will have a beneficial effect on relations between the two countries in the next stage.
On the other hand, the new US administration expresses its absolute support for Saudi Arabia in its quest to counter Iranian influence in the region. This suggests that countries will stick to the chosen position as much as possible in the light of common interests, even if they have disagreements on some issues.
It follows from the above that during Biden's presidency in Saudi Arabia, the internal political balance of power may change significantly. The decision of the kingdom's main strategic ally to end cooperation with Crown Prince Ibn Salman can deprive him of a leading position in determining the country's foreign and domestic policy, as well as in the struggle for the succession to the throne. Who will take his place and what kind of blood this parish will turn into (Ibn Salman is a supporter of harsh methods and will not give up power just like that) is still unclear. However, the likelihood of such a development of events after the above-described statements by the American administration has increased significantly.
3. The talks between Putin and Lukashenko have highlighted controversial issues in relations between Russia and Belarus.
On February 22, Sochi hosted a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Belarus, Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko. The talks between the leaders of the two countries are especially relevant against the backdrop of continuing internal political instability in Belarus and the incomplete issue of integration of the two countries.
The last time Putin met with Lukashenko was in September, a month after the presidential elections in the republic and in the midst of massive opposition protests. Political guarantees from Russia, moral support from the security forces and a loan of $ 1.5 billion were considered a significant factor that ensured the preservation of Lukashenko's power and the gradual stabilization of the situation in the country.
The leaders of the two countries directly at the meeting, as follows from the final statements, discussed issues of interstate cooperation, bilateral trade and the supply of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. However, the issues of integration of the two countries seem to be much more important and systemic.
As a result of the meeting in Sochi, Lukashenko noted that the governments of the two countries had agreed on most of the roadmaps, and there were six or seven more to be finalized. In addition, the next day, the presidents once again phoned and discussed the functioning of the tax systems of the two countries, cooperation in the military-industrial complex and the work of the media in modern conditions. The very format of long, more than six hours, negotiations, calls immediately after the meeting, and, according to Telegram channels, Lukashenko's conversation with the Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev testify to extremely difficult negotiations.
It seems that Russia still intends to complete the issue of integration of the two countries, gradually overcoming the resistance of Lukashenko, who does not want to give up power. In particular, as a result of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, the opposition was never allowed to participate in political dialogue, the reform of the constitution and new presidential elections are postponed indefinitely, and the Belarusian president himself advocates "correct nationalism separating Belarusians from Russians."
Naturally, this approach is perceived extremely negatively by the Russian leadership. There is no doubt that the key knot of the current situation in Belarus, both in terms of the country's bilateral relations with Russia, and in the issue of resolving the internal political crisis, is the figure of President Lukashenko. His departure is only a matter of time and at the moment the parties are obviously busy working out scenarios for the transit of power in the republic.
4. Canadian parliamentarians adopted a statement accusing China of "genocide of Muslims."
On February 22, Canadian parliamentarians overwhelmingly adopted a resolution accusing China of genocide of Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region.
Although Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet abstained from voting, most legislators, including many liberals, voted in favor of the proposal, which was submitted by the opposition Conservative Party.
The resolution recognizing that "the People's Republic of China is currently committing genocide against Uighurs and other Turkic-speaking Muslims," also calls on the International Olympic Committee to move the 2022 Winter Olympics out of Beijing.
This resolution, adopted by the Canadian parliament, fits well into the mainstream of accusations of "Uyghur genocide" that began to be voiced against China in the White House when Joe Biden came to the presidency. The spread of this trend to Canada, as a state dependent on the United States and a NATO member, is an alarming sign. It indicates that in the near future the United States will draw its allies into its political, economic and ideological confrontation with China.
It is not excluded that following the Parliament of Canada, after some time, such resolutions may be adopted by the parliaments of individual European states that are most dependent on the United States. The next step after that is the sanctions for "non-observance of human rights" and, as a consequence, the restriction of the export of a number of Chinese goods to the markets of Western countries.
Probably, it is along this path that one of the lines of US pressure on China, connected with the "Uyghur question", will develop.
ECONOMY.
Briefly:
The world liberal economy, led by the American one, is entering a systemic excess liquidity crisis. The Biden administration has decided to “flood” the US economy with money. It will “spill out” outside the US borders, inevitably leading to inflation, which will inevitably affect Ukraine. A series of recent events around Kolomoisky may indicate the Anglo-American rivalry for Ukraine and Britain's attempt to win the sympathies of the Ukrainian authorities and Kolomoisky. Another trend is the “tightening of the screws” by the current government in order to strengthen its position, including in the media and economic areas.
1. Approaching global inflation. $ 1.9 trillion Democratic stimulus package.
Experts record an unprecedented increase in liquidity in world markets; over the past six months, the price of oil has doubled, and bitcoin has grown three and a half times.
There is a possibility that oil prices will rise to $ 100 per barrel in the near future. In 2020, the NASDAQ stock index rose by as much as 45 percent. This stock exchange specializes in high tech, internet technology, biotechnology, and so on. From this point of view, the high growth of this particular index is natural in the era of the coronavirus. At the end of 2020, the United States printed $ 1 trillion and put it into circulation in the global economy. Moreover, in February 2021, the Senate voted for a “Biden package” of another $ 1.9 trillion. This money should help boost entrepreneurial activity in the United States and also be directed to social benefits for the poorly protected segments of American society. The long lockdown reduced the buying activity in the US, creating “extra” money in the economy. The fall in consumption affected the accumulation of reserves in the EU as well - more than half a trillion euros. The banking system is overloaded with deposits, and lending fell along with entrepreneurial activity during the lockdown. Uncertainty pushes investors towards buying bitcoin.
The Ukrainian economy will face both an increase in the price of the main energy carriers (oil, gas) and an increase in the price of Ukrainian exports (grain, ore). The time lag between the rise in the price of oil and gas and the further rise in the price of Ukrainian exports remains dangerous. In other words, Ukrainian consumers will first start paying more for energy-dependent goods and services before gaining higher profits from grain and ore. Another risk is an increase in the interest rates of the Fed and the ECB. Then foreign investors will start withdrawing money from Ukraine.
The world economy cannot grow indefinitely. If supply and demand do not grow in the near future in order to match the money supply in the world economy, this will inevitably lead to higher prices. The sanctions of countries against each other only contribute to this, creating additional barriers to the growth of supply and demand.
2. Arrest of pipelines indirectly connected with V. Medvedchuk.
On February 2, 2021, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy imposed sanctions on individuals and legal entities related to the TV channels 112 Ukraine, ZIK and NewsOne, namely, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from the PLOZ Taras Kozak, who is associated with Viktor Medvedchuk.
On February 19, at a regular NSDC briefing, NSDC Secretary Alesya Danilov announced his intention to return the Samara - Western Direction (Prykarpatzapadtrans) pipeline to state ownership, namely 1,433 kilometers1. Medvedchuk gained control over the pipeline in 2017, allegedly on the basis of a false expert conclusion, and on February 11, 2021, the former deputy of UkrGIAP was declared suspicious.
Before publicly announcing the decision to nationalize Prykarpatzapadtrans on February 19, on February 11, law enforcement officers already announced suspicion to the former deputy of UkrGIAP, on the basis of whose expert decision the court was able to make a decision in favor of the Medvedchuk group in 2017. In 2016, the Russian company Transneft sold Prikarpatzapadtrans to a Swiss company that is related to Medvedchuk's entourage. The Medvedchuk pipeline is the Soviet Druzhba pipeline, which remained in Russian ownership by inheritance, since Russia officially recognized itself as the legal successor of the USSR. In 2011-2015, several court decisions recognized the pipeline in Ukraine as Ukrainian. In 2015, the economic court in the Rivne region overturned this decision, recognizing the ownership of the Prykarpatzapadtrans company in 2017.
Radio Liberty refers to experts Serhiy Dyachenko, Gleb Kanevsky and Mikhail Gonchar, who assert that the profits from the sale of oil products from the Prykarpatzapadtrans pipeline were used to finance Medvedchuk's political and media influence in Ukraine2. It is important to note that on February 23, it was the newly created Supreme Anti-Corruption Court (VAKS), which was an independent entity within the framework of the Ukrainian judicial system, that seized the property of Prykarpatzapadtrans, completing the architecture of power represented by NABU, NAPK, and SAP. Expert Olesya Yakhno said that blocking TV channels and confiscating the pipeline as part of the political struggle is beneficial for the ruling authorities. Vitaly Kulik doubts the impeccability of this decision from a legal point of view.
3. The London High Court dismissed Tatneft's claim for $ 294 million against Kolomoisky and Bogolyubov.
Since 2019, I. Kolomoisky has been on the hook of the FBI as part of an investigation into possible financial fraud, in particular, money laundering, in the United States. At the end of 2020, Optima holding defaulted on a loan of $ 18.5 million to Bridge Landing Cleveland. On January 26, 2021, the Delaware Clerical Court froze the sale of a skyscraper owned by the Optima holding.
In December 20201, the US Department of Justice filed a civil lawsuit demanding the confiscation of the American property of the ex-shareholders of Privatbank2. In response, the Optima holding filed an investment lawsuit against the United States.
On February 9, 2021, Kolomoisky and Bogolyubov filed a counterclaim against the United States over the threat of asset confiscation3. Optima Holding accuses the United States of violating the US-Ukraine bilateral investment agreement worth $ 23 million.
On February 12, a holding company associated with Kolomoisky and Bogolyubov managed to sell a skyscraper in the United States, presumably for $ 17 million4.
On February 22, law enforcement officers detained a plane carrying the former first deputy head of the board of Privatbank Volodymyr Yatsenko, heading from Ukraine to Vienna5. In early 2020, the economic court of Kiev opened a case on the claims of several former top managers and shareholders of Privatbank regarding the invalidation of agreements on the purchase of shares dated December 2016 during the nationalization of the bank. Among the plaintiffs was Yatsenko, who owns 0.3 percent of Privatbank shares.
On February 23, the ex-head of the board of Privatbank, Oleksandr Dubiletu, was announced on suspicion of embezzling someone else's property in the amount of 136 million hryvnias6. According to the investigation, the top management of Privatbank, realizing that the nationalization of the bank is inevitable, began to withdraw funds from the bank in different ways in December 2016. On February 23, Alexander Dubilet and Vladimir Yatsenko ceased to be beneficiaries of Fintech Band, which is developing Monobank. Their place was taken by Alexey Dubilet and Evgeniya Kravenko. We are talking about packages of 33.74 and 17.18 percent, respectively7.
On February 24, the London High Court dismissed the claim of the Russian oil company Tatneft against Kolomoisky, Bogolyubov and Yaroslavsky for almost $ 300 million in the case against Ukrtatneft due to the expiration of a statute of limitations8. For such cases, the statute of limitations is three years, which means that the statute of limitations expired in 2019. The High Court of London refers to Russian Article 196 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. The High Court of London refers to the expiration of the statute of limitations (three years), although the claim was filed 5 years ago. Main complaint: The Kremenchutsk refinery allegedly received oil from Tatneft in 2009, but did not pay for the delivery.
The situation around Kolomoisky may reflect the Anglo-American rivalry for Ukraine, since during the increasing US pressure on Kolomoisky in 2020-2021, the High Court of London ruled in favor of Kolomoisky. While the Optima holding is in litigation with the United States to get $ 23 million, the British justice has “forgiven” Kolomoisky a sum more than 10 times higher, rejecting Tatneft's claim.
CONCLUSION.
Summarizing the above, we note that:
First, in the domestic policy of Ukraine, the tendency continues to suppress the political opponents of the current government from the conventionally "white-blue" camp. This is reflected in the closure of TV channels, the initiation of criminal cases, the submission of bills on collaborators to parliament, and much more. The President's Office believes that these measures are yielding results, since after their application, the rating of the main competitor of the current government, the Opposition Platform For Life party, began to decline. However, the reason for this decline is, rather, the disappointment of a part of the “nuclear” electorate of the OPL with a too sluggish response to the government’s suppression campaign, rather than the flow of its electorate to other parties under the influence of pressure from the government.
Secondly, President Volodymyr Zelensky seeks to strengthen his own influence in different segments of the state apparatus. So, the amendments to the law on civil service, adopted this week, significantly expanding the powers of and. about. ministers, will allow the head of state to "bypass" the need to approve his own candidates for ministerial positions in parliament. The Office of the President also took care of strengthening its own influence on local elites. For this purpose, a Congress of Local and Regional Authorities will be created under the President.
Third, the US NATO allies are starting to join the American campaign of pressure on China. The adoption by the Canadian parliament of a resolution accusing the PRC of the “genocide of the Uighurs” is only one of the “first signs” of this process. As the topic of the "Uyghur genocide" increasingly occupies the minds of Western politicians and the media community, the question of introducing anti-Chinese sanctions for this alleged "violation of human rights" will inevitably begin to be raised. In turn, sanctions will become one of the tools used in the fight against China by the United States.
Fourth, this week saw the start of a change in US foreign policy towards one of its main allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia. Now the States no longer intend to cooperate with Crown Prince Mohammed ibn Salman, accusing him of involvement in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. This means that the political struggle for the status of the crown prince may soon escalate in Saudi Arabia. Given the local specifics, as well as the extreme toughness of Muhammad ibn Salman, it is possible that this fight will be bloody.
Fifth, the world economy, in the not too distant future, is expecting an increase in inflation due to the measures to “flood the crisis with money”, which are being taken by Western countries and, first of all, the USA.
Edited by:
Ruslan Bortnik,
Daniil Bogatyrev.
The authors:
Daniil Bogatyrev,
Maxim Semyonov,
Oksana Krasovskaya,
Andrey Timchenko.
