This week, the World Economic Forum opened in Davos (Switzerland). From Ukraine, the event was attended by President Vladimir Zelensky and the head of the Office of the President Andriy Ermak; they took part in the World Economic Forum and held several bilateral meetings. The main goal of Ukrainian leaders was to maintain the attention of the world community to Ukraine (against the backdrop of the spread of other global conflicts). That is why, during his rather harsh speech, V. Zelensky accused the allies of playing into the hands of the Russian Federation with their desire to "not escalate the situation."
The main topics that Ukraine plans to promote at the forum are the confiscation of Russian assets worth about $300 billion and the “Peace Formula” of President V. Zelensky.
Ukraine and its closest allies are trying to ensure that the Ukrainian plan has a monopoly on the peace settlement. To consolidate V. Zelensky's "Peace Formula" as the only model for a future peace settlement, excluding the possibility of the emergence of other more compromise solutions (for example, the Hungarian or Republican peace plan). Therefore, active preparations are underway for the Global Peace Summit, which should approve the "Formula of Peace" (which requires the surrender of the Russian Federation) as the only common position of the West (NATO countries, EU, North America, etc.)
In particular, on January 14, the fourth meeting of national security advisers, where the Ukrainian "Formula of Peace" was discussed. In addition to Western countries supporting Ukraine, states from the Global South are also participating in the meeting (in total, more than 80 countries participated). According to the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, 15 more countries were participating than during the last meeting, said the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak. Among them are 39 countries in Europe, 18 in Asia, 12 in Africa, six in South America, three in North America, and two in Oceania.
There is a process of developing infrastructure that, in the future, should lay the foundations for a new Nuremberg (Kiev) tribunal, a platform that, for example, can claim the confiscation of Russian $300 billion, etc. These consultations are designed to ensure the unity of the West in supporting Ukraine and guaranteeing the conditions for further confrontation.
In general, the next meeting of national security advisers on the Ukrainian "Formula of Peace" of Ukraine in Davos has little to do with a practically peaceful settlement and reaching certain agreements with the Russian Federation since, in its content, it is a demand for its surrender. Moreover, Ukraine and its allies will not accept any compromise.
National security advisers planned to agree on the format of the Global Peace Summit. However, the meeting between Ukraine's national security advisers and the countries of the "global South" did not lead to a plan for further action. The summit at the level of country leaders, which Ukraine previously announced, has yet to be scheduled. Officials stated following the negotiations that some countries of the "global South" confirmed their position that the Russian Federation should participate in the discussion process and that the settlement should consider its "security problems," particularly Ukraine's desire to join NATO. As some Western media write, The decision of the People's Republic of China, Russia's most important ally, not to participate in the event undermined its significance.
At the moment, there are no real prospects for peace negotiations. So the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, spoke at the forum in Davos and once again noted that he is against concluding a truce with the Russian Federation and a "freeze of war." For his part, Russian President V. Putin said that V. Zelensky's "Peace Formula," which provides for the withdrawal of all Russian troops to the 1991 borders, is a "prohibitive demand for negotiations."
In general, there is a chance for a peaceful settlement only if agreements are reached between Western countries, China, and the Russian Federation or due to the complete exhaustion of the parties. At the same time, achieving political agreements should imply the formation of a specific new geopolitical balance.
Bloomberg reported that National Security Advisor to US President Jake Sullivan. D. Sullivan, during a conversation with the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky in Davos, will warn him that the White House supposedly wants Ukraine to change its war strategy, namely, the transition of Ukrainian troops to defense, which in general can already be observed. In this regard, the parties' transition to strategic defense may be the first step towards freezing the conflict.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen agreed on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos to begin assessing Ukrainian legislation for compliance with EU legislation - the screening process. Ukraine will try to speed up the negotiations on membership as much as possible before the elections to the European Parliament 2024 (06/09/2024) and the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council from 01/07/2024. President V. Zelensky said that the development of a framework for negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU is expected in the spring.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials and its closest allies have increased pressure on European countries to either provide aid to Ukraine or seize some $300 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets. At the end of last year, the United States invited G7 working groups to study ways to transfer Russian assets to Ukraine. However, at the moment, Western countries are still deciding whether to agree to the transfer of frozen reserves to Russia due to doubts about the legality of such a procedure. One of the options for solving this problem is the issue of "reparation bonds" by Ukraine. However, these securities can only generate profits if Ukraine receives reparations from Russia for the damage caused by the war, which seems unlikely. Also, bondholders will have no contractual rights to the Kremlin's frozen reserves. Notably, of the total amount of these assets, only $5 billion are in the United States, and about $200 billion are in the EU. That is, this problem is a European "headache."
In this case, a better scenario for Ukraine is directly receiving help from allied countries. In general, the forum in Davos will likely try to put pressure on the leadership of Western countries, presenting them with a choice - either confiscating assets or providing assistance. Let us remind you that the USA ($61 billion) and the EU (50 billion euros), due to internal political confrontations, have yet to decide on allocating funding to Ukraine.
The European Union is confident it will agree to allocate assistance to Ukraine in the following "couple of weeks."Budapest has made it clear to the EU that it is ready to withdraw its objection to financing Ukraine. In December 2023, Prime Minister V. Orban blocked a four-year aid package of 50 billion euros for Ukraine. Germany also almost doubled its military assistance to Ukraine - from 4 billion to 7 billion.
The problem of financing Ukraine from the US Congress remains unresolved. Trumpists in the House may oppose the Senate's proposed deal on this issue. The issue is finally turning into a subject of political bargaining. Now, the Republicans expect from D. Biden not only a compromise on the border but also an answer to the question of what the strategy for Ukraine is.
At the front, Russian troops are trying to go on the offensive and attack in almost all directions, but there have yet to be any significant territorial changes. Active fighting is taking place in Maryinsky and Avdiivsky's directions. Russian troops advanced slightly along the railway line north of Vesele. There is also some progress in the Seversk, Donetsk region. To the southwest of Bakhmut, there were battles south of Bogdanivka. In the direction of Kupyansk, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near the village of Sinkovka, Kharkiv region.
Also, the RF Armed Forces progressed in the Zaporizhzhia region to the West of the settlement—Verbove and in the village of Rabotino. In Kherson's direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued measures to expand the bridgehead.
In the face of a worsening shortage of ammunition and personnel, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are actively increasing the use of FPV drones. These drones can fly up to 25 kilometers, and it is believed that this figure can be further improved. The main disadvantage is their vulnerability to electronic warfare (EW) systems, but mass production can mitigate this disadvantage.
Russia is also increasing the number of its FPV drones, and shortly, the situation with this type of weapon will be critical to the course of hostilities. The decisive factor will be which side can massively use FPV drones at the front and develop more effective methods to counter them.
Russia has changed its attack priorities from energy to Ukrainian defense industry facilities. According to representatives of the State Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Russia's primary efforts are now focused on the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure facilities, headquarters, and individual units on the front line. However, the Russian Federation continues to monitor the state of Ukrainian energy.
The Russian Federation mobilizes about 1000-1100 people daily - about 30 thousand per month. Payment is about 220-250 thousand rubles per month on the front line.
The Russian Federation is now trying to keep the strategic reserve at about 30% of existing resources. To restore the potential at the start of a large-scale Russian Federation invasion, it will take up to 10 years for ground forces and up to 5 years for high-precision weapons.
Discussions continue in Ukraine regarding a new law on conscription. At its extraordinary meeting, as expected, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine withdrew the conscription bill from the Rada. That is, the Parliament did not dare to take any responsibility for adopting the unpopular bill and returned it to the Government, in essence, making it responsible for adopting these measures. The President's Office predicts the adoption of the revised conscription bill in a few days or weeks; the edited version will consider all committees' positions, not just the defense one. Judging by the post of deputy Maryana Bezugla, in the draft law on conscription, they plan to cross out one of the most scandalous provisions - adding draft dodgers to the register of debtors and electronic summonses. Also, the document may remove the norm on demobilization after 36 months of service, which was initially presented to the military as the period when they could return home.
The reservation of deputies from conscription in the new bill may be removed. What is likely a populist move by the authorities to alleviate the public outrage caused by this bill? However, such a norm can also become a tool for putting pressure on the opposition. All this will contribute to the "crumble of Parliament" process and motivate deputies to resign.
In the second reading, the Verkhovna Rada adopted bill No. 10062 on the digitalization of the Ukrainian army, which, in particular, creates a unified electronic register of those liable for military service. In particular, the Law provides that a dossier will be collected on all persons responsible for military service from 17 to 60 years of age: telephone numbers and email addresses; having a driver's license; information about the parents of the person liable for military service; details of internal and foreign passports, TIN; gun ownership information; data on travel abroad; information about knowledge of foreign languages; information about criminal records, etc. In addition, the register will include a digital image of those liable for military service, which will allow them to be identified, including using street cameras. Also, thanks to this Law, the Ministry of Defense plans to strengthen cyber defense and place its IT systems in military cloud storages of NATO member countries.
The collection of such a vast amount of information about those liable for military service can be aimed at simplifying the subsequent search and identification of these citizens. Also, this data can be used when introducing any sanctions the conscription bill provides.
On January 12, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak paid a working visit to Ukraine. In particular, R. Sunak announced an aid package worth 2.5 billion pounds or $3 billion (the most extensive package from Great Britain since the beginning of the war), which will include surface drones (this confirms that Crimea is the target) and possibly long-range missiles. R. Sunak signed an "Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain" with Vladimir Zelensky. The contract period is ten years.
It is important to note that the document does not contain a commitment from London to enter the war on the side of Ukraine in the event of a new attack from Russia.
The document does not contain a commitment from London to enter the war on Ukraine's side in the event of a new attack. The treaty sets out only a few obligations on the part of the UK: to begin consultations on further actions within 24 hours, provide Ukraine with a variety of military assistance and equipment, and impose sanctions against Russia. All of these measures have been implemented since the invasion on February 24, 2022.
In the signed agreement, the term "guarantees" appears only once, which is in the context of obligations on the part of Ukraine and not on the part of Britain. It is specified that "Ukraine guarantees the protection of these technologies and intellectual property."
The agreement, to a greater extent, has informational and political significance. It aims to demonstrate Britain's continued support in the complex military situation for Ukraine and fill the uncertainty regarding further assistance from Ukraine's leading Western partner, the United States.
The agreement signed in Kyiv between Ukraine and the UK essentially formalizes the military cooperation already underway. In its content, this agreement is reminiscent of the proposals for security guarantees by the head of OP A. Ermak and the former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. And they are simply a promise of help since there is no principle of joint defense. In addition, these agreements are instead international political agreements (they have no legal but moral and political force in international relations) and do not require ratification, unlike an international treaty, which is legally binding.
It is unlikely that the UK Parliament will ratify the agreement with Ukraine, which will act as a kind of marker.
Ukraine is preparing a defense agreement with the United States (similar to the one it signed with Britain). Ukraine expects to sign several agreements shortly and is negotiating the signing of such "security guarantees" with 30 states, said Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmygal. Among these countries, there are also members of the G7.
In general, the arrival of R. Sunak is connected, first of all, with the fact that Great Britain today is the primary supervisor of arms supplies to Ukraine and, in particular, a moderator of the war (against the backdrop of confrontation in Congress and elections that paralyzed the "Ukrainian direction" in the United States). The UK's position also acts as a coordinator for other allied countries (Europe, Australia, Japan) for the supply of new types of weapons to Ukraine (remember who supplied the first Western tank or surface drone to Ukraine).
These countries have increased their support for Ukraine and are providing new assistance packages in a situation where the issue of funding from the United States still needs to be resolved.
At the same time, we must understand that the capabilities of US allies without the assistance of the US itself are significantly limited. And it is unlikely that such a coalition will be able to fully replace American resources for Ukraine (remember that D. Biden asked Congress for $61 billion for Ukraine).
Now, the issue of allocating aid to Ukraine from the United States is uncertain amid the pre-election confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. In this situation, European countries have also expressed that they will need more time for significant long-term commitments to Ukraine, given the reduction in their domestic budgets.
And even if Europe manages to resolve the financial issue, it does not have enough weapons for the physical change that Ukraine now needs. Therefore, the “duty” of Great Britain for Ukraine, although very important, will be temporary and limited.
During 2023, Ukraine's trade turnover amounted to $99.4 billion, remaining at the 2022 level ($99.7 billion).
Reported by the press service of the State Customs Service. Imports of goods to Ukraine in 2023 reached $63.5 billion. Exports amounted to $36 billion. Among the countries supplying goods to Ukraine, the leaders are China ($10.4 billion), Poland ($6.6 billion) and Germany ($4.9 billion).
Major export destinations from Ukraine include Poland ($4.7 billion), Romania ($3.7 billion), and China ($2.4 billion).
In the structure of the total volume of goods imported to Ukraine, 65% were machinery, equipment, and transport ($19.8 billion), chemical products ($11 billion), and fuel and energy products ($10.3 billion). Among the most exported goods from Ukraine are food products ($21.8 billion), metals and metal products ($3.9 billion), and machinery, equipment, and transport ($2.9 billion).
The Ukrainian “grain corridor” has reached pre-war export levels. Recently, the representative of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Dmitry Pletenchuk, said that the Ukrainian grain corridor's work had reached its capacity before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. Five hundred ships have passed through it, and more than 10 million tons of cargo have been transported.
Remember that after July 17, 2023, the Russian Federation withdrew from the "grain deal". After this, in August, Ukraine launched new temporary sea routes for civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
By the end of 2023, export volumes were restored. And in December, exports of agricultural products amounted to a record 7.1 million tons. (for comparison, 3.4 million tons were exported in July).
Of these, 6.1 million tons were exported through ports (in July - 2.3 million tons), which remains the primary method of export (from 70% to 85%) of products for Ukraine. Only about 1 million tons (15%) were exported by other means of transport in December.
However, blocking traffic on the Ukrainian-Romanian border by Romanian farmers can significantly (about 50%) reduce the volume of Ukrainian exports and cause losses. Truck traffic through the Siret and Vicovo de Sus checkpoints is blocked on the border between Ukraine and Romania. Farmers want compensation for losses due to drought. Carriers are voicing demands for speeding up the border crossing procedure, allowing for slight excess weight limits, ensuring "fair competition," and refunding the excise tax on fuel.
By the end of 2023, Romania had significantly increased its grain transit capacity from Ukraine. In September, when the EU ban on the transit of Ukrainian grain through its territory expired (September 15, 2023), Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia decided to unilaterally extend it, after which part of these Ukrainian exports went to Romania. Exports of Ukrainian products through Romania increased from 2 million tons to more than 3 million tons per month, that is, one and a half times; on average, about half of Ukraine's food exports. Based on data previously published on the Ministry of Finance website, 1 million tons of agricultural products could bring Ukraine about $300 million. Therefore, Ukraine's losses could amount to about $1 billion per month if exports through Romania are blocked.
Combat map.
Internal situation in the country.
Economic situation.
During 2023, Ukraine's trade turnover amounted to $99.4 billion, remaining at the 2022 level ($99.7 billion).
Reported by the press service of the State Customs Service. Imports of goods to Ukraine in 2023 reached $63.5 billion. Exports amounted to $36 billion. Among the countries supplying goods to Ukraine, the leaders are China ($10.4 billion), Poland ($6.6 billion) and Germany ($4.9 billion).
Major export destinations from Ukraine include Poland ($4.7 billion), Romania ($3.7 billion), and China ($2.4 billion).
In the structure of the total volume of goods imported to Ukraine, 65% were machinery, equipment, and transport ($19.8 billion), chemical products ($11 billion), and fuel and energy products ($10.3 billion). Among the most exported goods from Ukraine are food products ($21.8 billion), metals and metal products ($3.9 billion), and machinery, equipment, and transport ($2.9 billion).
The Ukrainian “grain corridor” has reached pre-war export levels.
Recently, the representative of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Dmitry Pletenchuk, said that the Ukrainian grain corridor's work had reached its capacity before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation. Five hundred ships have passed through it, and more than 10 million tons of cargo have been transported.
Remember that after July 17, 2023, the Russian Federation withdrew from the "grain deal". After this, in August, Ukraine launched new temporary sea routes for civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
By the end of 2023, export volumes were restored. And in December, exports of agricultural products amounted to a record 7.1 million tons. (for comparison, 3.4 million tons were exported in July).
Of these, 6.1 million tons were exported through ports (in July - 2.3 million tons), which remains the primary method of export (from 70% to 85%) of products for Ukraine. Only about 1 million tons (15%) were exported by other means of transport in December.
However, blocking traffic on the Ukrainian-Romanian border by Romanian farmers can significantly (about 50%) reduce the volume of Ukrainian exports and cause losses. Truck traffic through the Siret and Vicovo de Sus checkpoints is blocked on the border between Ukraine and Romania. Farmers want compensation for losses due to drought. Carriers are voicing demands for speeding up the border crossing procedure, allowing for slight excess weight limits, ensuring "fair competition," and refunding the excise tax on fuel.
By the end of 2023, Romania had significantly increased its grain transit capacity from Ukraine. In September, when the EU ban on the transit of Ukrainian grain through its territory expired (September 15, 2023), Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia decided to unilaterally extend it, after which part of these Ukrainian exports went to Romania. Exports of Ukrainian products through Romania increased from 2 million tons to more than 3 million tons per month, that is, one and a half times; on average, about half of Ukraine's food exports. Based on data previously published on the Ministry of Finance website, 1 million tons of agricultural products could bring Ukraine about $300 million. Therefore, Ukraine's losses could amount to about $1 billion per month if exports through Romania are blocked.
What will be changed in the Law on conscription?
People's Deputy Maryana Bezugla told what is planned to be changed in the bill on conscription based on the results of the discussion in the Verkhovna Rada (27 points in total).
● Eliminate the requirement for those liable for military service to provide a place of residence when concluding an employment contract;
● Eliminate unconstitutional provisions on inclusion in the register of debtors;
● Reintroduction of the norm for granting a deferment from conscription and the right to dismissal to all persons with disabilities, including group III;
● Return the rule on granting a deferment from conscription and the right to release for those liable for military service who have a wife (spouse) from among persons with disabilities, including III
● Return of the postponement for adoptive parents, guardians, trustees, foster parents, and parent-educators as in the current Law;
● Eliminate the removal of deferments for current people's deputies of Ukraine;
● Eliminate deferment for employees of enterprises, institutions, and organizations of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, law enforcement agencies;
● Remove the norms for the dismissal of police officers and prosecutors in connection with conscription;
● Return to military registration of persons recruited for service in law enforcement agencies;
● Introduce reservation of prosecutors, law enforcement agencies, justice system and pre-trial investigation bodies, government bodies, other government bodies, and local government bodies in the Procedure determined by the Cabinet of Ministers with a clear definition of professions and positions;
● To clarify the provision of deferment to education applicants only on condition of its sequential receipt without taking into account the specialty (profession);
● Provide a deferment for persons enrolled in internship training;
● Restore the provision for granting a deferment from conscription for scientists and teachers, provided that they work at their principal place of work for at least 0.75 times the rate;
● Eliminate the rule on granting powers to local executive authorities to decide on granting deferments from conscription to those liable for military service;
● Remove the rule on military transport obligations for individual entrepreneurs;
● Remove the rule on mandatory medical treatment for citizens by the decision of the VLK or the relevant TCC;
● Remove the rule on citizens updating their credentials within 20 days from the date of extension of conscription;
● Eliminate email subpoenas;
● Determine discretion on the dismissal of military personnel depending on service in the combat zone or behind the lines;
● Introduce grounds for dismissal from military service of military personnel whose relatives died while participating in the ATO;
● To clarify the articles of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, according to which it is allowed to call up convicted persons for conscription at will;
● Include a postponement of the requirement for candidates for civil service positions, prosecutors, and police service to undergo basic military training or military service;
● Reduce the terms for dismissal of conscripts after the adoption of the Law and introduce a moratorium of up to 25 years, or six months in case of dismissal at the age of more than 25 years;
● Start basic combined arms training in higher education institutions of all forms of ownership from 2025;
● Begin basic military service in the year following the year in which the legal regime of martial Law is terminated or abolished;
● Apply requirements to candidates for civil service positions, prosecutors, and police service upon completion of basic combined arms training or military service one year after the introduction of basic combined arms training;
● Bringing the President's powers to issue decrees conforming with the Constitution.
Discussions regarding a new conscription law are currently ongoing. On January 11, at an extraordinary meeting, the Cabinet of Ministers withdrew its bill on changing the rules of conscription, military registration, and military service from the Verkhovna Rada. The bill will be finalized.
The situation around Ukraine.
World Economic Forum in Davos.
This week, the World Economic Forum started in Davos (Switzerland). From Ukraine, the event was attended by President Vladimir Zelensky and the head of the Office of the President Andriy Ermak; they took part in the World Economic Forum and will hold several bilateral meetings. The main goal of Ukrainian leaders was to maintain the attention of the world community to Ukraine (against the backdrop of the spread of other global conflicts). That is why, during his rather harsh speech, V. Zelensky accused the allies of playing into the hands of the Russian Federation with their desire to "not escalate the situation."
The main topics that Ukraine plans to promote at the forum are the confiscation of Russian assets worth about $300 billion and the “Peace Formula” of President V. Zelensky.
Ukraine and its closest allies are trying to ensure that the Ukrainian plan has a monopoly on the peace settlement. To consolidate V. Zelensky's "Peace Formula" as the only model for a future peace settlement, excluding the possibility of the emergence of other more compromise solutions (for example, the Hungarian or Republican peace plan). Therefore, active preparations are underway for the Global Peace Summit, which should approve the "Formula of Peace" (which requires the surrender of the Russian Federation) as the only common position of the West (NATO countries, EU, North America, etc.)
On January 14, the fourth meeting of national security advisers on the Ukrainian “Formula of Peace” of Ukraine began in Switzerland (Davos). Representatives of more than 80 countries and international organizations gathered in Davos. Which is 15 more than during the last meeting, said the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak. Among them are 39 countries in Europe, 18 in Asia, 12 in Africa, six in South America, three in North America, and two in Oceania.
The first five points of the peace formula were considered at the third meeting of advisers in Malta. They relate to nuclear security, food and energy security, the release of prisoners and deportees, restoring Ukraine's territorial integrity, and restoring the world order.
At the fourth meeting of advisers in Davos, the following five points of the formula were discussed: the withdrawal of Russian troops, restoration of justice, environmental Safety, preventing escalation and recurrence of war, and confirmation of the end of the war. It was proposed to create an international working group at the level of defense ministers and national security advisers, whose tasks would include developing and ensuring the adoption of an international agreement calling on Russia to a complete cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine.
There is a process of developing infrastructure that, in the future, should lay the foundations for a new Nuremberg (Kiev) tribunal, a platform that, for example, can claim the confiscation of Russian $300 billion, etc. These consultations are designed to ensure the unity of the West in supporting Ukraine and the conditions for further confrontation.
In general, the next meeting of national security advisers on the Ukrainian "Formula of Peace" of Ukraine in Davos has little to do with a practically peaceful settlement and reaching certain agreements with the Russian Federation since, in its content, it is a demand for its surrender. Moreover, Ukraine and its allies will not accept any compromise.
National security advisers planned to agree on the format of the Global Peace Summit. However, the meeting between Ukraine's national security advisers and the countries of the "global South" did not lead to a plan for further action. The summit at the level of country leaders, which Ukraine previously announced, has yet to be scheduled. Officials stated following the negotiations that some countries of the "global South" confirmed their position that the Russian Federation should participate in the discussion process and that the settlement should consider its "security problems," particularly Ukraine's desire to join NATO. As some Western media write, The decision of the People's Republic of China, Russia's most important ally, not to participate in the event undermined its significance.
One of the topics that Ukraine also plans to promote at the forum is the West's confiscation of Russian sovereign assets worth about $300 billion. In recent weeks, representatives of the Ukrainian Government have regularly talked about the prospects of confiscating Russian assets abroad and called on allies to make such decisions. However, the West still needs to be ready to transfer the frozen reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to Kyiv - due to doubts about the legality of such a procedure. One of the options for solving this problem is the issue of "reparation bonds" by Ukraine. However, these securities can only generate profits if Ukraine receives reparations from Russia for the damage caused by the war, which seems unlikely. Also, bondholders will have no contractual rights to the Kremlin's frozen reserves.
In this case, a better scenario for Ukraine is directly receiving help from allied countries. In general, the forum in Davos will likely try to put pressure on the leadership of Western countries, presenting them with a choice - either confiscating assets or providing assistance. Let us remind you that the USA ($61 billion) and the EU (50 billion euros), due to internal political confrontations, have yet to decide on allocating funding to Ukraine.
The British Prime Minister visited Ukraine.
On January 12, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrived in Ukraine on a working visit.
In particular, R. Sunak announced the allocation of a new aid package to Ukraine worth 2.5 billion pounds or $3 billion (the most extensive package from Great Britain since the beginning of the war), which will include surface drones (as confirmed that Crimea is a target) and possibly long-range missiles.
R. Sunak signed an "Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and Great Britain" with Vladimir Zelensky. The contract period is ten years.
Despite "historic significance" claims, the signed agreement essentially formalizes the UK's already provided assistance to Ukraine. It is important to note that the document does not contain a commitment from London to enter the war on the side of Ukraine in the event of a new attack. The treaty sets out only a few obligations on the part of the UK: to begin consultations on further actions within 24 hours, provide Ukraine with a variety of military assistance and equipment, and impose sanctions against Russia. All of these measures have been implemented since the invasion on February 24, 2022.
In the signed agreement, the term "guarantees" appears only once, which is in the context of obligations on the part of Ukraine and not on the part of Britain. It is specified that "Ukraine guarantees the protection of these technologies and intellectual property."
The agreement, to a greater extent, has informational and political significance. It aims to demonstrate Britain's continued support in the complex military situation for Ukraine and fill the uncertainty regarding further assistance from Ukraine's leading Western partner, the United States.
Many people assess the arrival of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in Ukraine from the point of view of a new round of war escalation. But it is not so. Britain will most likely play the role of military-political "duty officer for Ukraine" during the "election leave" period of the United States.
The arrival of R. Sunak is connected, first of all, with the fact that Great Britain today acts as the primary supervisor of arms supplies to Ukraine and, in fact, the moderator of the war (against the backdrop of confrontation in Congress and elections that paralyzed the "Ukrainian direction" in the United States). The UK's position also acts as a coordinator for other allied countries (Europe, Australia, Japan) for the supply of new types of weapons to Ukraine (remember who supplied the first Western tank or surface drone to Ukraine).
These countries have increased their support for Ukraine and are providing new aid packages in a situation where the issue of funding from the United States still needs to be resolved.
At the same time, we must understand that the capabilities of US allies without the assistance of the US itself are significantly limited. And it is unlikely that such a coalition will be able to fully replace American resources for Ukraine (remember that D. Biden asked Congress for $61 billion for Ukraine).
Now, the issue of allocating aid to Ukraine from the United States is uncertain amid the pre-election confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. In this situation, European countries have also expressed that they will need more time for significant long-term commitments to Ukraine, given the reduction in their domestic budgets.
And even if Europe manages to resolve the financial issue, it does not have enough weapons for the physical change that Ukraine now needs.
Therefore, the “duty” of Great Britain for Ukraine, although very important, will be temporary and limited.
The Security Assurance Agreement between Ukraine and the UK, signed in Kyiv, formalizes military cooperation already underway.
In its content, this agreement is reminiscent of the proposals for security guarantees by the head of OP A. Ermak and the former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. They are simply promises of help since there is no principle of joint defense. In addition, these agreements are more likely to be international political agreements (they have no legal but moral and political force in international relations) and do not require ratification, unlike an international treaty with binding legal force.
It is unlikely that the UK Parliament will ratify the agreement with Ukraine, which will act as a kind of marker.
Ukraine is preparing a defense agreement with the United States (similar to the one it signed with Britain). Ukraine expects to sign several agreements shortly and is negotiating the signing of such "security guarantees" with 30 states, said Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmygal. Among these countries, there are also members of the G7.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
