SITUATION IN UKRAINE: December 7 - 14, 2022

The Russian Federation continues to implement its criminal strategy of destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure to provoke a humanitarian crisis and a blackmail negotiation process. As a result of eight waves of Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, all thermal and hydroelectric power plants, as well as 40% of the high-voltage network, were damaged. In general, about half - 50% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure is significantly damaged, and part is destroyed. Additional important factors of the shortage of electricity in Ukraine are the shortage of coal and gas for its generation, a complex set of political and legal relationships in the industry, and the lack of modernization of the system.

, Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure facilities are becoming an additional factor provoking inflation. For 11 months of 2022, consumer prices for goods and services in Ukraine increased by 25.7%. Revenues to the budgets of the regions for ten months on average fell by -16% compared to January-October 2021. If the Russian Federation continues to attack the national power grid and other critical infrastructure, Ukraine's economy could shrink by 50% this year, according to the government. Also, the shelling of Ukrainian cities by the Russian Federation in the future may provoke the migration of the population from Ukraine, which will also negatively affect domestic consumption, the labor market, and the state of the economy as a whole.

This week Ukraine formally completed the fulfillment of obligations on the candidacy for EU membership, which once again was used to strengthen the position of the Office of the President of Ukraine in the political system. Thus, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law that changes the procedure for selecting judges of the Constitutional Court, the law on the media, and the law on national minorities - one of the main requirements for Ukraine's candidacy in the European Union. But in general, it is worth noting that, in part, these laws become a tool for expanding powers and strengthening the current government. Thus, the President's team completes the process of establishing control over the media environment, solves its problems in the field of the judiciary, and strengthens control over the judicial system, which opens the way to pro-presidential political reform.

Also, escalation continues to grow in the domestic policy of the country around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) (Blessed Onufrii). The SBU conducts searches in the churches and monasteries of the UOC in the Transcarpathian, Chernivtsi, Rivne, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Lviv, Zhytomyr and Kherson regions amid accusations of being "pro-Russian." The Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy has supported three bills relating to the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which essentially prohibit its activities. But based on the statement of the head of the relevant committee and one of the leaders of the ruling party "Servant of the People" N. Poturaev, it can be assumed that the authorities are not going to directly ban the UOC yet, but are pushing this religious denomination to voluntarily abandon canonical ties with the ROC and change parts hierarchs. The inclusion in the sanctions lists of the manager of the affairs of the UOC also complicates the functioning of the Church as a legal entity, the extension of lease agreements with state authorities, registers of charters, and so on. It is noteworthy that the primate of the UOC, Metropolitan Onufrii, has not yet come under sanctions. This may indicate that the final political decision regarding the UOC has not been made. Also, a part of the President's team fears the strengthening of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine ( Blessed Epiphanius ), the influence on which the teams of P. Poroshenko have is significant.

On the front, the RF Armed Forces continue local offensives in the Bakhmut and Avdiivsky and Limansky, Zaporizhzhia directions - no significant advances have been recorded anywhere and processes of situational exhaustion and stabilization of the front line are observed. The most active hostilities are taking place in the Donbas region. Also, the RF Armed Forces are trying to get behind the lines of Ukrainian troops concentrated west of Donetsk, and are trying to attack the city of Velyka Novosilka. In the Kherson direction, the RF Armed Forces are conducting defensive operations, reinforcing the group of troops. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine A. Reznikov claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive with the onset of frost when the ground freezes. Likely, the goal of the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be the liberation of most of the south of Ukraine or the northern part of the Lugansk region. In particular, efforts can be directed to an important transport hub through which the land corridor to Crimea passes. Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia direction, or Svatovo, Starobelsk in Luhansk. The RF Armed Forces are also preparing a "winter offensive" by replenishing the army with mobilized ones. Such an offensive, more likely, may concern the Zaporizhzhia direction, or the northern part of left-bank Ukraine.

There is moderate progress in negotiations with the mediation of the IAEA on the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. While Ukraine demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from there, the Russian Federation denies such a possibility. As well as the possibility that the station will be transferred to the control of someone other than Rosatom. The station periodically continues to be shelled. Potentially, the parties may come to an agreement providing for the withdrawal of Russian troops from the station, the cessation of shelling, and the strengthening of the IAEA monitoring mission.

The leaders of the G7 countries publicly supported the "peace formula" of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (de-occupation, reparations, punishment of war criminals, and so on). " Peace Formula " by V. Zelensky allows Ukraine to demonstrate to third countries theoretical readiness for negotiations and fend off Russian attempts to shift responsibility to Ukraine for the continuation of the war (supposedly Ukraine refuses peace). But in terms of its content, such a plan is an ultimatum and a demand to admit defeat, to which so far RF does not agree. Therefore, it is obvious that shortly the parties will be focused on the result of hostilities.

The US Senate committee approved a resolution that recognizes Russia's actions against the Ukrainian people as genocide. This decision, like the resolution of the European Parliament on recognizing the Russian Federation as a country sponsor of terrorism, will not yet have any legal consequences for Russia, but is an important instrument of pressure on the Russian Federation, and can serve another legal reason for the formation of a legal basis for the confiscation of Russian frozen assets (about 330 billion dollars ). Also, along with the initiative on the tribunal, this can be another way of putting pressure on the Russian Federation to soften its negotiating position on a possible peace treaty or truce.

Against the backdrop of the suspended peace talks, Turkey, as the main beneficiary of the grain deal, is trying to expand the range of exports within the grain corridor at the expense of other types of food and goods, it also seeks to create a regional gas hub in Turkey. Thus, Turkish President R. Erdogan initiated a new stage of "shuttle" diplomacy between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

It is possible that in the future the supply of weapons to Ukraine from Western countries may slow down. In the United States, there will still be an audit of weapons sent to Ukraine, which in turn will slow down their deliveries. The White House said it agreed with the proposals of the Republicans to hold it. At the same time, there are already statements in the EU about the depletion of weapons stocks, which may adversely affect supplies to Ukraine. This may also be related to the desire of European countries to push Ukraine towards the resumption of negotiations or a truce. In general, the total amount of declared assistance to Ukraine is about 113 billion euros. At the same time, it should be understood that the declared assistance and the disbursed assistance are significantly different. Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has received $27.2 billion in aid from international partners.

Military situation

Combat actions.

The situation in the Kharkiv region: without significant changes. The Armed Forces of Ukraine repulsed the attacks of the RF Armed Forces in the area of the settlement of Ternovoy, Kharkiv region.

 

In Donbas: The Russian army is conducting an offensive in the Bakhmut and Avdiivsky and Liman directions. There is a defense of the city of Bakhmut, as well as attacks repulsed in the area of settlements Bilogorivka, Plotshanka, and Nevsky in the Luhansk region. In the Donetsk region attacks were repelled - in the areas of the settlements of Yakovlivka, Bakhmutsky, Podgorodny, Bakhmut, Opytne, Kurdyumivka, Druzhba, Nevelski, Peremoha, Soledar, Kreminna, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka, Donetsk region. The army of the Russian Federation went on the offensive against Velyka Novosilka, a fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which also supports Ukrainian forces in the city of Vugledar.

The situation in the South direction: no significant changes. On the Kherson direction of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation conduct defensive operations, and strengthen the grouping of troops. In the Zaporizhzhia region, the leadership of the 58th army was destroyed (in the city of Melitopol).

Black Sea-Azov direction: no significant changes.

Combat map.

Negotiation process.

Country leaders, G7, supported the peace plan of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. In addition, they agreed to maintain and increase economic pressure on the Russian Federation. The G7 noted that Russia's nuclear blackmail is unacceptable, and the use of weapons of mass destruction would have " serious consequences ." The G7 leaders called on their finance ministers to meet soon to discuss joint support for Ukraine in 2023. The G7 expressed their readiness to help Ukraine " repair, rebuild, and protect its critical energy and water infrastructure" and continue to provide it with military assistance, with a focus on "air defense systems and assets ."

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, who took part in the G7 summit via video link, previously coordinated the "peace formula" with US President D. Biden. Recall that the peace plan of V. Zelensky consists of ten points, which include the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of all prisoners, the tribunal for those responsible for the aggression, and security guarantees for Ukraine.

Recall that the Ukrainian formula of peace from 10 points includes:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety;

2. Food security;

3. Energy security;

4. Release of all prisoners and deportees;

5. Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of territorial integrity and the world order;

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities;

7. Return of justice, that is, a tribunal for those responsible for aggression and compensation for damage;

8. Counteracting ecocide;

9. Ukraine's security guarantees to prevent escalation;

10. Fixing the end of the war.

This plan, in its content, actually leaves no room for acceptable compromises, which could be at least partially agreed upon in the Russian Federation. And the support of the peace plan of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky by the G7 countries means that the allied countries are trying to increase pressure on the Russian Federation as much as possible. At the same time, the peace plan of V. Zelensky already makes it possible to demonstrate at the level of third countries Ukraine's supposedly constructive desire for negotiations. Previously, putting forward unacceptable conditions to the opponent, this "game" was played in the Russian Federation with ostentatious readiness to conclude peace agreements.

At the same time, Turkey initiated a new stage of "shuttle" diplomacy between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. Turkish President R. Erdogan, as the main beneficiary of the grain deal, is trying to expand the range of exports within the grain corridor at the expense of other types of food and goods, he also seeks to create a regional gas hub in Turkey.

So R. Erdogan held a telephone conversation on Sunday with Russian President V. Putin, in which he called on him to end the war against Ukraine as soon as possible, as well as to solve the problem with the Kurds in Syria. The talks discussed Turkish-Russian relations, especially energy, as well as regional issues, including the grain corridor and the fight against terrorism. R. Erdogan said that more than 13 million tons of grain have already been delivered to those in need through joint efforts. According to him, it is already possible to start working on the export of other food products and gradually other goods within the grain corridor. Later, a telephone conversation took place between President of Turkey R. Erdogan and President of Ukraine V. Zelensky.

Negotiations on the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhya NPP are ongoing. But in general, the situation remains unclear. It is not yet clear who will control the station. Ukraine demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from there, the Russian Federation denies such a possibility. As well as the possibility that the station will be transferred to the control of someone other than Rosatom. The station periodically continues to be shelled. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, said that a protective zone around the station can be agreed upon and will work shortly. The option of the Russian Federation withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhya NPP in exchange for guarantees for the pumping of gas and oil is probable. The Russian Federation needs proceeds from the sale of energy carriers to the EU. The price ceiling, which came into effect on December 5, includes restrictions on oil shipped by sea. The Russian Federation still has an alternative route through the Druzhba pipeline, the southern branch of which passes through the territory of Ukraine to the EU. French President Emmanuel Macron said that there is an agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and that negotiations are being conducted on these terms.

The internal situation in Ukraine

The Russian Federation continues to implement its strategy to destroy Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

On December 10, after new Russian strikes with drones of Iranian origin on energy facilities in the Odessa region, an extremely difficult situation developed in the region. Most consumers were without power for a long time (several days), and there were interruptions in the supply of water and heat. The situation in the Odessa region was complicated by the fact that the energy system did not have time to recover from previous strikes. On December 14, the city of Kyiv was attacked by Russian drones. President V. Zelensky said that previously, he managed to shoot down all 13 drones that attacked the capital in the morning.

As a result of eight waves of Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, all thermal and hydroelectric power plants, as well as 40% of the high-voltage network, were damaged. In general, about half - 50% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure is significantly damaged, and part is destroyed. President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that the country needs energy assistance for 800 million euros.

The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has identified 4 groups for generating electricity. The priority is critical infrastructure facilities. The second priority is the objects of the military-industrial complex.

The priority is critical infrastructure, in particular water and heating facilities and hospitals.

The second priority is the objects of the military-industrial complex, working for the defense of the country. The principle of "everything for the front" remains unchanged.

The third priority is a business that produces critical goods and products, such as bakeries and dairies.

The fourth priority is the residential sector.

The government's definition of group 4 for electricity generation may mean that the Cabinet of Ministers is considering options for not providing electricity to household consumers.

Economic situation.

According to the results of 2022, according to forecasts, the hryvnia will be issued for UAH 400 billion. In 2023, the Ukrainian authorities promised the IMF and Western partners to curtail the active issue of the hryvnia. To slow down inflation and start curtailing the hryvnia issue in 2023. At the same time, Russian attacks on Ukraine's critical infrastructure facilities, in particular, energy facilities, become an additional factor that contributes to its growth.

It is reported that inflation in November 2022. is 26.5% compared to the previous year and for the month +0.7%

• Since the beginning of the year, the following changes:

• Transport +30.7%

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages +25.9%

• Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products +16.9%

• Restaurants and hotels +15.5%

• household appliances and

• current housing maintenance 15.2%

• Education +14.5%

• Healthcare +14%

• Communication +10.7%

• Leisure and culture +10.5%

• Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels +5%

• Strange enough, but according to official statistics, "Clothes and Shoes" showed a drop: -3.2%.

For 11 months of 2022, consumer prices for goods and services in Ukraine increased by 25.7%, according to the State Statistics Service.

According to Openbudget, which analyzed revenues to the budgets of the regions for the first 10 months of the year. On average, revenues fell by -16% compared to January-October 2021.

TOP-5 areas with the most lost income:

Kherson: -52%

Zaporizhzhia: -33.3%

Dnepropetrovsk: -23.3%

Chernihiv: -21.7%

Zakarpattia: -20.8%

Revenues increased in only two areas:

Lviv region: +9%

Mykolaiv: +4%

As a result of eight waves of Russian missile attacks in Ukraine, all thermal and hydroelectric power plants, as well as 40% of the high-voltage network, were damaged.

Therefore, Ukrainians may face a lack of light in winter, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said in a comment to CNN that in general, about half - 50% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure was significantly damaged, and part was destroyed.

Since the beginning of the new year, the price of electricity for businesses will increase by 107%, according to NPC Ukrenergo. The cost of dispatching services will also increase. In general, the price rise will be 107% to the current indicators.

At the same time, preferential electricity prices for household consumers will remain during the autumn-winter period - until March 31, 2023. This decision was made by the National Commission for State Regulation in Energy and Utilities.

First Deputy Minister of Economy Denis Kudin said that in November 2022, Ukraine's GDP could decline by 41% compared to November 2021, and by the end of 2022, the country's economy could fall by 33.2% - 33.5%. In 2023, the Ministry of Economy expects a resumption of GDP growth, and, as before, estimates it at the level of 3.2% - this forecast has not changed. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine does not expect changes in the dollar rate until the end of the year. The official hryvnia exchange rate is now at 36.6 hryvnia /$, while cash is kept in the region of 40.0-40.5 hryvnia /$. In 2023, the dollar exchange rate, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy, will average 42.2 UAH /$ per year. Forecast adjustments are possible in the event of a change in the course of hostilities. Since the assessment includes a forecast that the active phase of hostilities in Ukraine will end in the summer. If it drags on, it will naturally affect the performance of the economy.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that if the Russian Federation continues to attack the national energy system and other critical infrastructure, the Ukrainian economy could shrink by 50% this year.

Also shelling RF of Ukrainian cities in the future may provoke the migration of the population from Ukraine, which will also hurt domestic consumption and the labor market, and the state of the economy as a whole.

The situation around the Constitutional Court.

On December 7, 2022, a special plenary session of the judges of the Constitutional Court was held, which considered the issue of the resignation of three judges based on their applications. Three judges of the Constitutional Court under the quota of the Verkhovna Rada immediately resigned and resigned.

These are the judges of the CCU:

Igor Slidenko (became a judge in March 2014 under the quota of the Svoboda party)

Sergei Sas (became a judge in March 2014 under the quota of the Batkivshchyna party)

Irina Zavgorodnya (became a judge in September 2018 under the quota of the BPP party)

At the same time, the 9-year term of office of the judges of the Constitutional Court Igor Slidenko and Sergey Sas expired only in March 2023, and the powers of Irina Zavgorodnya generally expired only in September 2027.

In November, the Venice Commission provided a generally favorable opinion on draft law No. 7662 on the selection of candidates for the seat of a judge of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine under a new procedure, that is, with the involvement of the Advisory Group, which will include experts from international actors, including from the Venice Commission itself. But now this bill has not been finally adopted - at the end of November it was submitted to the parliament, but then it was withdrawn from consideration.

Most likely, shortly, we can expect an attempt to appoint three new judges of the Constitutional Court to the Constitutional Court according to the quota of the Verkhovna Rada. This allows the authorities to get their representatives through parliament to the Constitutional Court. Then the alignment of forces in the Constitutional Court will change dramatically. After the establishment of a stable presidential majority in the Constitutional Court, the Office of the President will receive an effective tool for solving many internal accumulated problems and contradictions (issues of language, national minorities, control over the judiciary, etc.). There will also be opportunities to reformat the constitutional field in terms of holding or postponing elections, and amending or writing a new Constitution of Ukraine, which will strengthen the powers of the President of Ukraine.

At the same time, the Cassation Administrative Court of the Supreme Court of Ukraine declared unlawful the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky on the removal of the head of the Constitutional Court Oleksandr Tupytsky from the position of a judge for 2 months. Now the head of the Constitutional Court has been put on the wanted list for illegally leaving the country during the war.

The struggle for influence on the Constitutional Court is connected with the fact that many legislative initiatives of the authorities were often blocked there. Potentially, in 2020, he could also declare unconstitutional the land reform, the law on languages, and several other important laws for the President's team, which launched a political crisis in Ukraine (the conflict around the Constitutional Court, the activation of the National Security and Defense Council, the ban on Medvedchuk 's channels, criminal cases against P. Poroshenko and V. Medvedchuk, stopping the dialogue on the Minsk agreements, and so on). Therefore, the independence of the structure of the Constitutional Court was considered there as a risk and a threat to strengthening the power of the President.

In addition, on December 13, deputies of the Verkhovna Rada supported law No. 7662, which changes the procedure for the selection of judges of the Constitutional Court. He was supported by 245 people's deputies.

On the same day, the parliament adopted a bill providing for the liquidation of the Kyiv District Administrative Court (OASK). The parliament also approved bill No. 5370 on the creation of the Kyiv City District Administrative Court.

The actions of the OASK often came into conflict not only with the policy of the authorities but also with Western partners (in terms of anti-corruption bodies), they made many high-profile decisions, among which are the case of the former head of the State Fiscal Service R. Nasirov, the case of B. Rosenblat, as well as the recognition nationalization of " PrivatBank " illegal, ban on peaceful assemblies during the Euromaidan, etc.

At the same time, large delays in the issuance of court decisions can be expected, given that there are 2.5 times fewer judges in the Kyiv District Administrative Court than in the OASK. According to the Code of Administrative Procedure (KAFU), cases transferred from the OASK to the Kyiv District Administrative Court, and later - to the newly created Kyiv City District Administrative Court, will be subject to consideration from the beginning, or re-examination from the stage of preparatory proceedings due to a change in the composition of the court.

The Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill "On national minorities

(communities) of Ukraine”.

On December 13, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the second reading Law No. 8224 Draft Law "On National Minorities (Communities) in Ukraine". 324 deputies voted for the decision. The draft law proposes to establish that the national minority of Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as the national minority) is a group of citizens of Ukraine who are not ethnic Ukrainians, traditionally residing on the territory of Ukraine, united by common ethnic, cultural, historical, linguistic or religious characteristics, aware of their belonging to it, showing a desire to preserve and develop their linguistic, cultural, religious identity.

National minorities are guaranteed the right to self-identification, to peaceful assembly, and to use the language of the national minority, including in the field of education. The national minority gets the opportunity to publish media in their language, to duplicate signboards and election campaigning, posters, and cultural events. It is also proposed to provide for the creation of advisory bodies to resolve issues of national minorities.

The Initiative determines that a person belonging to a national minority also has the right to:

1) self-identification;

2) freedom of public associations and peaceful assembly;

3) freedom of expression of views and beliefs, thought, speech, conscience, and religion;

4) participation in political, economic, and social life;

5) use of the language of a national minority;

6) education, including in the languages of national minorities;

7) preservation of the cultural identity of the national minority.

According to the bill, national minorities are guaranteed protection against forced assimilation.

It also prohibits direct and indirect discrimination against persons belonging to national minorities. In case of infringement of the rights of minorities, their representatives can apply to the court or in another legal way to achieve the protection of their rights.

It is worth noting that the adopted draft law on national minorities has become somewhat better than in previous versions. Some amendments to the law of national minorities and expert organizations have been taken into account. But the issues have not been resolved: the full study of the language of national minorities, the use of the language in the judicial system, in the media, and the issue of compact living have not been resolved. All the restrictions that are present in the existing legislation have been preserved, in particular, in the law "On Ensuring the Functioning of the Ukrainian Language as the State Language" and the law "On Education". This law "on national minorities" reduces the level of protection and opportunities for national minorities and the possibility of their development, especially national languages, in comparison with the way it is written in the Constitution of Ukraine and the Law of Ukraine "On the Fundamentals of the State Language Policy" canceled in 2018. At the same time, conditions for wider activities in the private-public sector are being created for communities of national minorities - they can create their schools by teaching their language, creating their media, holding cultural events, and engaging in other activities using the languages of national minorities.

Media law.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the law "On Media" (No. 2693-d). The law was supported by 299 people's deputies. This bill gives more powers to the National Council for Television and Radio Broadcasting, for which it was criticized by journalists and the opposition. In their opinion, this law, not only during the war but also after it, will become an instrument of total control by the authorities over the media. For example, the National Council received the right to block unregistered mass media temporarily, for two weeks, without a court decision. Complete blocking is possible by court order. In particular, the National Council will have the power not only over the audiovisual media but also over print and online publications. In the National Council for Television and Radio Broadcasting, the need to introduce regulation of the online media space was explained by the fact that part of the market " works in the dark or anonymously ." According to some journalists and experts, taking into account the huge list of restrictions, as well as the threat of quick sanctions, up to the closure, only those publications that enjoy the support of Western structures will be able to afford criticism of the authorities.

At the same time, the media reform law is one of the main requirements of the European Union. To start negotiations on joining the EU, Ukraine had to, among other things, fulfill the requirements for media regulation. In November, Deputy Minister of Culture and Information Policy Taras Shevchenko announced that Ukraine had received the conclusions of the European Commission on the bill "On Media". These conclusions, according to him, were " sufficiently working and not very voluminous ." The document, among other things, introduces the concept of online media into the legislation.

The situation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

The general situation regarding the future fate of the UOC is still not completely clear. The SBU continues searches in the churches and monasteries of the UOC in the Zakarpattia, Chernivtsi, Rivne, Volyn, Mykolaiv, Sumy, Lviv, Zhytomyr, and Kherson regions.

The Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy supported three bills concerning the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC).

Bill N8221 On ensuring the strengthening of national security in the field of freedom of conscience and the activities of religious organizations. He proposes on the territory of Ukraine to ban the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church, religious organizations that are directly or as components of another religious organization are part of the structure of the Russian Orthodox Church; as well as religious centers that are part of or subordinate to the canonical, organizational or other issues of the ROC. It is also assumed that contracts for the use of the property by prohibited religious organizations are terminated ahead of schedule.

The Verkhovna Rada Committee also supported the appeal of the parliament to the government regarding the transfer of the building complexes of the Pochaev Assumption Lavra and the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (N8012) for free use.

In addition, they supported bill N8262, which provides for the simplification of the transition from the UOC to the OCU.

The Main Scientific and Expert Department of the Verkhovna Rada criticized Bill N8221 on ensuring the strengthening of national security in the field of freedom of conscience and the activities of religious organizations. In general, it is noted that the bill submitted to the Rada, which bans the UOC, is contrary to the Constitution and can split society. The bill proposes to allow only those churches that will become subordinate to the OCU to bear the name "Orthodox". The Scientific and Expert Department of the Parliament, referring to the Constitution, notes that " Ukraine is a secular state, which excludes the possibility of establishing any advantages at the legislative level for certain religious organizations ."

" The proposed monopoly of a religious organization on the term "Orthodox" is not sufficiently balanced and contains signs of a violation of Article 35 of the Constitution of Ukraine, including the rights of members of other religious organizations," the conclusions say. Another claim is the concept of "foreign religious organizations", which is included in the bill but is not explained there in any way (just as it is not mentioned in the rest of Ukrainian legislation). Experts also point out that the ban on religious organizations that "declare" a connection with the Russian Orthodox Church in any form is an indefinite reason (that is, no specific forms of such a declaration are listed). Which gives reason to close religious communities at the discretion of the authorities.

The head of the parliamentary committee on humanitarian and information policy "Servant of the People" Nikita Poturaev denied that bill No8221 On ensuring the strengthening of national security in the field of freedom of conscience and the activities of religious organizations, we are talking about the prohibition of the UOC. He makes it clear that he does not consider the UOC to be part of the ROC and also does not believe that the UOC is engaged in collaborationist activities.

The main theses of N. Poturaev are as follows:

It is the deep conviction of the majority of the members of the committee that today in Ukraine there is no Church or religious organization that would be part of the religious institutions of the occupying state or would be led from there."

" We are also convinced that the identification by the SBU during searches in certain religious institutions (meaning in the UOC) of numerous samples of anti-Ukrainian materials in no way indicates collaborationism on the part of these religious institutions ."

" We urge citizens and people's deputies of Ukraine not to spread false information about the ban on the UOC or any other religious organization ."

Based on the statement of the head of the relevant committee and one of the leaders of the ruling party "Servant of the People" N. Poturaev, it can be assumed that the authorities are not going to directly ban the UOC yet but push this religious denomination to voluntarily renounce canonical ties with the Russian Orthodox Church and change part of the hierarchs. In turn, the corresponding three bills approved by the Committee should probably serve as an instrument of severe pressure on the UOC.

Along with this, new sanctions were introduced against the hierarchs of the UOC. Among them is Metropolitan Anthony (Pakanich), the manager of the affairs of the UOC and one of its most influential leaders. Metropolitan of Chernivtsi and Bukovina Meletiy also fell under the sanctions. The rest are metropolitans in the territories occupied by the Russian Federation. Earlier, the vicar of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, Metropolitan Pavel (Lebed), fell under the sanctions.

It is noteworthy that the primate of the UOC, Metropolitan Onufry, has not yet come under sanctions. This may indicate that the bargaining concerning the UOC has not yet been completed and the final decision has not been made.

In essence, the fate of the UOC will depend on the conclusions of the State Service for Ethnopolitics and Freedom of Conscience (the structure turns into an instrument of blackmail and pressure), according to which they will determine the nature of the statutory relations between the UOC and the ROC. Recall that the head of the service, E. Bohdan, had already been dismissed; earlier she confirmed that there was no mention of a connection with the Russian Orthodox Church or the Moscow Patriarchate in the charter of the Kyiv Metropolis of the UOC.

The situation around Ukraine.

Financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

The U.S. Senate has approved the 2023 defense budget. This draft defense budget could be the largest in US history. It amounts to $847.3 billion, of which at least $800 million are going to be allocated aid to Ukraine. The United States also announced the allocation of a new package of military assistance to Ukraine for $275 million. The emphasis in it is on air defense and the fight against drones. Another package of military assistance to Ukraine is allocated under the Presidential scheme Drawdown Authority (PDA), according to which the President of the United States has the right to send weapons without additional consent from Congress. The new aid package will include

▫️ additional ammo for HIMARS;

▫️ 80 thousand 155-mm artillery shells;

▫️ anti-drone equipment;

▫️ air defense systems;

▫️ HMMWV SUVs;

▫️ ambulances and medical equipment;

▫️ about 150 generators;

▫️ field equipment.

The total amount of military assistance to the administration of US President Joe Biden since the beginning of the war is already $ 19.1 billion. At the same time, in the United States, there will still be an audit of weapons sent to Ukraine, which in turn will slow down their deliveries. The White House said it agreed with the proposals of the Republicans to hold it. And the Republicans, who will receive a majority in the House of Representatives in January, promise to vote for such an audit.

The Council of the European Union approved a financial assistance package for Ukraine for 2023 for 18 billion euros. The goal of the package is to provide short-term financial assistance, finance Ukraine's immediate needs, rebuild critical infrastructure, and initially support sustainable post-war reconstruction. It is known that Hungary has unblocked the package of EU aid to Ukraine in exchange for unblocking the financial aid of Hungary itself.

In general, the total amount of declared assistance to Ukraine is about 113 billion euros, according to Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

The EU has overtaken the US and is becoming Ukraine's largest donor. At the same time, aid from the EU now exceeds aid from the US. The total amount of EU military, financial and humanitarian assistance ( from January 24 to November 20) is almost - 52 billion euros. The amount of US liabilities is slightly less - 48 billion euros. The rest of the countries account for about -13.5 billion euros. At the same time, it should be understood that the declared assistance and the disbursed assistance are significantly different.

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has received $27.2 billion in aid from international partners. This statement was made by Deputy Finance Minister Roman Ermolichev. He noted that in 2023 this figure will increase. The initial plan to attract international assistance is about $38 billion to cover the budget deficit next year.

The government of Ukraine called the amount of funding for the army during a full-scale invasion. So since February 24, the government has allocated UAH 1 trillion 130 billion to finance the army and the security sector. Of these, UAH 770 billion was spent on military salaries. Another 176.2 billion is directed to the modernization and purchase of equipment and weapons. This is more than the state has spent over the past 10 years.

The draft budget of the Russian Federation for next year indicates that more than 9 trillion rubles (143 billion US dollars) will be allocated to defense, security, and law enforcement agencies in 2023. According to British intelligence, the published amount is a significant increase compared to previous years and will amount to more than 30% of Russia's total budget. In the 2023 budget More than 1 trillion hryvnias, or 43% of the country's budget expenditures, has been allocated for defense in Ukraine.

It seems that Iran and the Russian Federation have reached certain agreements on the supply of weapons for the war in Ukraine, which will create additional difficulties. In particular, now the Russian Federation can continue its strategy of destroying Ukraine's critical infrastructure and increasing the intensity of shelling, while Iran can modernize its military-industrial complex and air force. Ukraine has already stated that Iran and Russia form an " axis of evil ".

Information is beginning to spread in the Western media that the governments of NATO countries are no longer against Ukrainian attacks on Russia. It is more likely that this topic in the Western press arose due to the emergence of new means of destruction in Ukraine itself (in particular, we are talking about the modernization of the still Soviet Strizh drone). But US President D. Biden refuted the data that the United States is no longer against Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory. The escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine is not in the interests of the United States, so they will not push Kyiv to operations inside Russia, White House spokesman John Kirby told ABC television. According to him, the goal of the United States in Ukraine is to help Kyiv defend its territory, including that lost as a result of Russian aggression. Judging by the content of the new package of American military assistance, the United States is not ready to transfer anything fundamentally new to Ukraine from those positions that would help increase the range of its strikes.

On the contrary, it can be assumed that in the future there may be interruptions in the supply of weapons since direct statements are already being made in the EU about the depletion of weapons stocks. Head of Eurodiplomacy Josep Borrell said that as a result of Ukraine's military support, the EU's stockpiles were depleted. Also, the German Ministry of Defense reported that the country's army is increasingly difficult to respond to requests for military assistance, as its stocks of weapons are dwindling. This may be related to the desire of European countries to push Ukraine towards the resumption of negotiations or a truce.

The US Senate committee approved a resolution that recognizes Russia's actions against the Ukrainian people as genocide.

In general, the resolution of the US Senate Committee on recognition of the actions of the Russian Federation against the Ukrainian people as genocide, as well as the resolution of the European Parliament on recognizing the Russian Federation as a country sponsor of terrorism will not yet have any legal consequences for Russia. But perhaps it will serve as another legal reason for the confiscation of Russian frozen assets (about $330 billion ). Also, along with the initiative on the tribunal, this can be another way of putting pressure on the Russian Federation to soften its negotiating position on a possible peace treaty or truce.

This resolution condemns Russia for committing acts of genocide against the people of Ukraine; calls on the United States, along with NATO and EU allies, to support the government of Ukraine to prevent further acts of Russian genocide against the Ukrainian people; supports tribunals and international criminal investigations to hold Russian political leaders and military accountable for the war of aggression, war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide; calls on US President Joe Biden to apply sanctions against those responsible or involved in the genocide perpetrated by the Russian Federation in Ukraine. The document is now submitted to a popular vote in the Senate.

Recall that on April 14, the Verkhovna Rada officially recognized the actions of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, as well as the political and military leadership of Russia during a full-scale war against Ukraine, as genocide of the Ukrainian people. The parliament called on the world to also recognize Russia's actions as genocide. On April 21, Latvia and Estonia were the first in the world to officially recognize the war crimes of the Russian Federation in Ukraine as genocide.

 

Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrii Timchenko

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics