The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue offensive operations in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions. Despite numerous reports that the Ukrainian troops during the offensive on the Southern Front were successful in the direction southeast of the settlement Robotino and south of N. p. Malaya Tokmachka, as well as south-east of Orekhov, Zaporozhye region, south of the village of Rabotino, in the area of Novopokrovka, where, supposedly, the first main line of Russian fortifications begins, which will need to be overcome in order to reach the city of Tokmak, real territorial changes between parties are local in nature - without significant transfers of control over settlements or large territories. Also, Ukrainian troops are trying to expand the width of the front breakthrough by attacking the settlement of Verbove (east of the settlement of Rabotino).
At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, without noticeable success, are trying to advance in the Kupyansk and Liman directions (on the Torske ledge)
The battles in these areas are fierce in nature with a significant amount of human and material losses on the sides.
The intensity of the fighting in the Bakhmut and Donetsk directions has significantly decreased.
The Ukrainian and Russian commanders are actively maneuvering their reserves, preparing for a new phase of offensive and defensive operations that may take place, including on new sectors of the front.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive may last approximately until November of this year, after which a pause can be expected. The minimum goals for Ukrainian troops on the Southern Front are the liberation of Tokmak and Polog (in the Zaporozhye region), and the approach of the Ukrainian control line to the coast of the Sea of Azov, which would make it possible to put the Russian land corridor to Crimea under artillery fire. Ukraine and the Russian Federation are now more engaged in a war of attrition than for territory.
Western equipment has not yet arrived at the front in the promised quantity. Ukraine received only 50 to 80 Leopard tanks, although hundreds were promised. In total, the Ukrainian army should receive about 240 Leopard 1A5, Leopard 2A4, Leopard 2A6, Stridsvagn 122, M1 Abrams and Challenger 2 tanks. There is also a particular shortage of mine-clearing vehicles. Ukraine has long been demanding the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles to it. But the US says it doesn't produce enough of these missiles to make a significant impact on the battlefield. The United States is already secretly preparing for a war of attrition that will last into the next year.
Another problem is the lack of air cover. For this reason, the military leadership delayed the counteroffensive as long as possible. In fact, the history of aircraft deliveries repeats the belated deliveries that were observed with tanks, air defense systems, precision and long-range ammunition and other weapons.
At the same time, it is obvious that the training of Ukrainian pilots will take at least several months (six months or more), and therefore the massive use of F-16 aircraft at the front in the future should be expected no earlier than 2024 (it will not affect the current counteroffensive), although the first symbolic copies may arrive in Ukraine before the end of 2023.
In addition, there are signs of the accumulation of missile weapons by the Russian Federation on the eve of the new winter season in Ukraine to strike at the Ukrainian energy sector.
Against this background, the Western press continues to disseminate information materials about problems with the counteroffensive, and it is also written that the allies supply weapons to Ukraine with delays and in insufficient quantities. While Western countries hesitated to provide the necessary weapons, the Russian Federation strengthened the defense, equipping minefields, and Ukraine suffered losses. This is largely due to the fact that Western partners do not want to increase the degree of confrontation with Russia, fearing nuclear escalation in one form or another.
In the Russian Federation, a united internal front is being formed in the war against Ukraine. The positions of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov are being strengthened. Which also means an increase in their responsibility for the failures of the RF Armed Forces at the front. August 23, 2023 as a result of the crash of a private plane, the founder of PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin and his closest associate Dmitry Utkin died. The plane crash happened two months after Prigozhin's rebellion. The main version of the incident in the world community is based on the assumption that the death of E. Prigozhin is beneficial to the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin or other law enforcement agencies (for example, the FSB), and therefore, they are involved in it.
It is possible that in this way the head of the Russian state sends a signal to the military, business and political elites of the country that in the future attacks against the authorities, like the Prigozhin rebellion, will be suppressed in the most severe way.
In general, the Prigozhin rebellion led to sweeps within the Russian system. Thus, about 20 Russian senior officers were removed from duty or disappeared (including the former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, General S. Surovikin). It is known that many of these generals of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces were previously against a military invasion of Ukraine. There was also the liquidation of the military opposition led by Strelkov (I. Girkin).
PMC "Wagner", most likely, will be restructured later. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General V. Sobolev, said that the Wagner PMC would cease to exist, and the fighters would be able to go into civilian life or sign a contract with the Defense Ministry. This means that the Russian Federation will lose a very operational military unit, which often carried out complex operations at the front, for example, heavy local offensives near the city of Bakhmut and the city of Soledar.
The death of E. Prigozhin restores the appearance of the lack of alternatives to the Russian political system. After the riot, the living E.Prigozhin acted as a destabilizing factor in the Russian Federation, and this gave Ukraine a chance for a quick victory in the war.
On the other hand, E. Prigozhin was a conductor of ultra-radical sentiments in the Russian Federation, his actions in Belarus could create a serious crisis for both Ukraine and Poland.
Some of the world's elites are becoming increasingly skeptical about the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive and are now considering various scenarios to end the war. In particular, some of them imply that Ukraine will come to terms with the actual loss of part of its territories in exchange for membership in NATO or the EU, or even simply the promise of long-term military and economic assistance. One of the main arguments in favor of this is that the West can stop the war without negotiations with Russian President V. Putin, while retaining most of the territories and the current political course for Ukraine. But such options cannot be officially accepted in Ukraine. Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, said that the war could end at any moment, but always on Ukraine's terms.
The skepticism of the allies mainly stems from problems in the global economy, uncertainty about how long Western countries will maintain the current level of assistance to Ukraine. As well as disbelief that Ukraine will be able to completely oust Russian troops from all its territories.
The results of the counteroffensive will also determine the starting positions of the authorities on the eve of a possible presidential election campaign in Ukraine. US Senator from the Republican Party Lindsey Graham on August 24 at a press conference in Kiev told President of Ukraine V. Zelensky that elections (presidential and parliamentary) should be held in Ukraine in 2024, despite the war. In fact, this is a signal that in the West, at least, they want the team of V. Zelensky to share power with other political players.
Since the next parliamentary elections will not take place in 2023, it is likely that the complete dissolution of the Cabinet of Ministers in this state will be avoided. And the current Prime Minister D. Shmygal will retain his position at least until the next elections (presidential, parliamentary), if they are held in March 2024. The fate of the Government will depend on negotiations with Western creditors.
But during this autumn-winter, personnel changes in the power block are possible. Another scandal with purchases for the military (a new scandal with the purchase of Turkish uniforms) worsens the chances of A. Reznikov remaining in his post as Minister of Defense. The likely resignation of A. Reznikov may also lead to a change in the role of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny (to resignation or transfer to another position).
Constant corruption scandals during the war undermine public confidence in the authorities. President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that he would propose to the Verkhovna Rada to equate corruption with treason for the period of martial law. But the corresponding bill No. 9659 was introduced to the parliament by the ex-speaker D. Razumkov. From which it follows that its adoption will not necessarily take place, since D. Razumkov now rather acts as an opposition to the authorities. It is also possible that in this way the authorities will test public opinion regarding this initiative and bargain with officials and representatives of the Ukrainian elites.
One of the main issues that is currently in discussion between the political and military leadership of the country is mobilization. The Armed Forces of Ukraine require increased mobilization to recruit at least another 300-400 thousand people into the army.
But the new mobilization will have a negative impact on public opinion and on the economic situation in the country. Therefore, the political leadership of the country is against it, and President V. Zelensky himself declares such a position. He believes that now it is necessary to speed up the process of solving problems with military enlistment offices and military medical commissions, and then discuss a possible increase in mobilization.
It is obvious that the Office of the President is trying to take into account the fact that significant war weariness is already accumulating in Ukrainian society and are cautiously approaching the issue of mobilization.
According to a study by the Razumkov Center. In general, 42% of Ukrainians believe that if the aggressor intensifies rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities, Ukraine should still continue to fight, no matter what. Another 21% of respondents would prefer to try to freeze the conflict, but not to make concessions to Russia. Another 23% of respondents believe that negotiations should be started. That is, a total of 44% of citizens in one way or another would like to end hostilities. It is noteworthy that in the study (which, by the way, is being conducted by a sociological center closely associated with Ukraine's Western allies), less than half of those surveyed are in favor of continuing the war under any conditions - 42%, but only 23% are in favor of negotiations. 62% are against negotiations, and 15% hide their opinion. These data may be an indicator of war-weariness in the “rear” of Ukrainian society. Everyone is waiting for the results of the counteroffensive, if they are significant, the pendulum will swing in the other direction and vice versa. As long as there is more significant data in the survey about the unwillingness of society to compromise with the Russian Federation, as a result, the authorities remain legitimate as long as the request of society to fight is fulfilled.
The situation around the export of Ukrainian agricultural products. The European Commission is considering subsidizing the transportation of Ukrainian grain through its member states after several countries banned its imports. It is noted that the issue of supporting the cost of transit of Ukrainian grain is discussed at meetings of representatives of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the executive authorities of the EU and Ukraine. According to the report, the estimated cost of subsidies may be about 30 euros per ton of grain. Earlier this year, at the initiative of five countries bordering Ukraine, the EU introduced a temporary ban on the sale of Ukrainian grain until September 15, 2023. due to growing complaints from local farmers about the negative impact on their business. These countries are aiming to ensure that potential subsidies are accompanied by a decision to extend the ban until the end of 2023.
The position of European countries exacerbates the already difficult situation with the export of Ukrainian food. On average, Ukraine exported 5-6 million tons of grain per month. Now approximately 3-3.5 million tons without a grain corridor. In particular, Ukraine could export up to 2 million tons by land transport through the EU countries and up to 3 million tons through the ports of the Danube River. But after the stop, the "grain agreement", the Russian Federation regularly shells the port infrastructure of Odessa and the Danube. Despite this, Ukraine plans to develop infrastructure with Romania and the Danube port cluster to strengthen its export potential. Prime Minister Denys Shmygal spoke about this. According to the prime minister, Ukraine is working to restore the work of the Black Sea corridors for the export of Ukrainian grain and other products. The first container ship has already arrived in Turkey.
Türkiye has repeatedly called for an extension of the grain agreement. For this purpose, the visit of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin to Turkey was first planned. Subsequently, it became known that the visit was postponed and Turkish President R. Erdogan could visit the Russian Federation himself.
The fact that the allied countries are trying to consider various options for the export of Ukrainian food may indicate that they have little faith in the prospect of restoring the "grain deal". Given the significant damage to the port infrastructure caused by the Russian Federation, it will be difficult for Ukraine in the medium term to resume the previous level of maritime exports. In such situations, the Russian Federation may agree to the restoration of the grain deal to negotiate additional compromises with the US and the EU, and realizing that Ukraine will not be able to fully benefit from the restoration of grain corridors due to the loss of part of export contracts and the destruction of port infrastructure.
Military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: In the Kupyansk direction, there were battles in the area of the village of Sinkovki.
In Donbas: The Russian Armed Forces are trying to advance in the Liman direction. On Bakhmutsky, Maryinsky, Avdiivsky, and Ugledarsky clashes of lesser intensity are noted. In the districts of the cities of Bakhmut, Marinka, Avdiivka. Attacks of the RF Armed Forces repulsed in the area of settlements: n.p. Belogorivka in the Lugansk region.
In the Donetsk region, attacks were repelled - in the areas of the settlements of Staromayorsky, Novodanilovka, Bogdanovka, Ivanovsky, Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, Vesele, Pervomaisky, in the Urozhainy area.
The situation in the southern direction: In the Zaporozhye region, Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations in Melitopol and Berdyansk. Ukrainian troops during the offensive on the Southern Front were successful in the direction southeast of the settlement. Robotino and south of N. p. Malaya Tokmachka, as well as southeast of Orekhov, Zaporozhye region.
Black Sea-Azov direction: no significant changes.
Combat map.
Internal situation.
The situation around the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
The European Commission is considering subsidizing the transportation of Ukrainian grain through its member states after several countries banned its imports. It is noted that the issue of supporting the cost of transit of Ukrainian grain is discussed at meetings of representatives of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the executive authorities of the EU and Ukraine. According to the report, the estimated cost of subsidies may be about 30 euros per ton of grain. Earlier this year, at the initiative of five countries bordering Ukraine, the EU introduced a temporary ban on the sale of Ukrainian grain until September 15, 2023. due to growing complaints from local farmers about the negative impact on their business. These countries are aiming to ensure that potential subsidies are accompanied by a decision to extend the ban until the end of 2023.
The position of European countries exacerbates the already difficult situation with the export of Ukrainian food. On average, Ukraine exported 5-6 million tons of grain per month. Now approximately 3-3.5 million tons without a grain corridor. In particular, Ukraine could export up to 2 million tons by land transport through the EU countries and up to 3 million tons through the ports of the Danube River. But after the stop, the "grain agreement", the Russian Federation regularly shells the port infrastructure of Odessa and the Danube. Despite this, Ukraine plans to develop infrastructure with Romania and the Danube port cluster in order to strengthen its export potential. Prime Minister Denys Shmygal spoke about this. According to the prime minister, Ukraine is working to restore the work of the Black Sea corridors for the export of Ukrainian grain and other products. The first container ship has already arrived in Turkey.
Türkiye has repeatedly called for an extension of the grain agreement. For this purpose, the visit of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin to Turkey was first planned. Subsequently, it became known that the visit was postponed and Turkish President R. Erdogan could visit the Russian Federation himself.
The fact that the allied countries are trying to consider various options for the export of Ukrainian food may indicate that they have little faith in the prospect of restoring the "grain deal". Given the significant damage to the port infrastructure caused by the Russian Federation, it will be difficult for Ukraine in the medium term to resume the previous level of maritime exports. In such situations, the Russian Federation may agree to the restoration of the grain deal in order to negotiate additional compromises with the US and the EU, and realizing that Ukraine will not be able to fully benefit from the restoration of grain corridors due to the loss of part of export contracts and the destruction of port infrastructure.
The situation around Ukraine.
The consequences of the death of the head of PMC "Wagner" E. Prigozhin.
In the Tver region (RF) on August 23, 2023 As a result of the crash of a private plane, the founder of PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin and his closest associate Dmitry Utkin died. The plane crash happened two months after Prigozhin's rebellion. The main version of the incident among the world community is based on the assumption that the death of E. Prigozhin is beneficial to the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin or other power structures (for example, the FSB), and therefore, they are involved in it.
The opinion that the physical elimination of E.Prigozhin was also expressed in the United States: “In Russia, little happens without Putin, but I do not have enough information to answer,” said US President Joe Biden.
It is possible that in this way the head of the Russian state sends a signal to the military, business and political elites of the country that in the future attacks against the authorities, like the Prigozhin rebellion, will be suppressed in the most severe way.
In general, the Prigozhin rebellion led to sweeps within the Russian system. Thus, about 20 Russian senior officers were removed from duty or disappeared (including the former commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces, General S. Surovikin). It is known that many of these generals of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces were previously against a military invasion of Ukraine. There was also the liquidation of the military opposition led by Strelkov (I. Girkin).
In fact, a united internal front is being formed in the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine.
Inside the Russian Federation, the positions of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov are being strengthened. But also the responsibility for the failures of the Russian Federation at the front is now transferred to these figures.
PMC "Wagner", most likely, will be restructured later. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General V. Sobolev, said that the Wagner PMC would cease to exist, and the fighters would be able to go into civilian life or sign a contract with the Defense Ministry. This means that the Russian Federation will lose a very operational military unit, which often carried out complex operations at the front, for example, heavy local offensives near the city of Bakhmut and the city of Soledar.
The death of E. Prigozhin restores the appearance of the lack of alternatives to the Russian political system. After the riot, the living E.Prigozhin acted as a destabilizing factor in the Russian Federation, and this gave Ukraine a chance for a quick victory in the war.
On the other hand, E. Prigozhin was a conductor of ultra-radical sentiments in the Russian Federation, his actions in Belarus could create a serious crisis for both Ukraine and Poland. At the same time, tensions have not yet subsided, Poland and the Baltic states say that they will close the border with Belarus if a “critical incident” occurs with the participation of the “Wagnerites”. The Minister of the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs stressed that Wagner PMCs must leave the region because "international security requires it."
Prospects for a counteroffensive and peace negotiations.
The Western press continues to disseminate information materials about the problems with the counteroffensive and the prolongation of the war, and it is also written that the allies are supplying weapons to Ukraine with delays and in insufficient quantities. According to The Economist, for example, Ukraine received only 60 Leopard tanks, although hundreds were promised. There is a particular shortage of demining vehicles.
In general, Western equipment has not yet arrived in the promised quantity. Another problem is the lack of air cover. For this reason, the military leadership delayed the counteroffensive as long as possible.
NATO countries have decided to allow Ukrainian pilots to start training on the F-16. The United States also gave a signal to Denmark and the Netherlands to start transferring these aircraft to Ukraine.
So Denmark will transfer 19 F-16 fighters to Ukraine. This was stated by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at a joint press conference with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky.
But at the same time, it is obvious that the training of Ukrainian pilots will take several months.
This is the same sad story that we have seen with tanks, air defense systems, precision-guided munitions and other weapons.
While Western countries hesitated to provide the necessary weapons, the Russian Federation strengthened the defense, equipping minefields, and Ukraine suffered losses.
Deliveries of Aircraft The Dutch media expressed surprise at the words of V. Zelensky about the number of F-16s, which he was allegedly promised by the acting. Prime Minister of the Netherlands Rutte. I quote the GeenStijl website: “In typical Ukrainian style, Zelensky again anticipates reality in the hope of imposing something. He is already talking about the promised delivery of 42 F-16s, while neither Rutte nor Ollongren (the Dutch defense minister) are talking about numbers. And in any case, the aircraft will not be delivered during the war!
Ukraine in 2024 can receive a maximum of 12 F-16 aircraft. President V. Zelensky probably announced the figure of 42 aircraft due to the fact that Ukraine can receive this number of aircraft within 5 years.
At the same time, it is obvious that the training of Ukrainian pilots will take at least several months (six months or more), and therefore the massive use of F-16 aircraft at the front in the future should be expected no earlier than 2024 (it will not affect the current counteroffensive), although the first symbolic copies may arrive in Ukraine before the end of 2023.
In addition, there are signs of the accumulation of missile weapons by the Russian Federation on the eve of the new winter season in Ukraine to strike at the Ukrainian energy sector.
Western partners are increasingly fearing that the conflict is reaching a dead end, and because of this, international support may weaken.
The head of the American General Staff, Mark Milley, believes that without diplomacy, Ukraine will face "a long, very difficult war with heavy losses." At the same time, in his opinion, it is still too early to talk about negotiations. "This counteroffensive has not yet exhausted itself. So we have to see how it all ends, and then move on."
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
