SITUATION IN UKRAINE: April 6 – 12, 2023

The battles for the city of Bakhmut reached the finish line. Most of the city is now under the control of the Russian Federation. The Armed Forces of Ukraine withdrew from the center of the city of Bakhmut towards the western quarters. As a result, Russian troops advanced heavily in the city center and intensified their shelling of Ukrainian positions. The supply of Ukrainian units is becoming more and more difficult, as the RF Armed Forces are trying to attack the areas of the settlements of Bogdanivka and Khromove, through which the main roads from the west to the city of Bakhmut pass. Without bringing significant Ukrainian reserves into battle, the city could be completely occupied by the Russian army in the coming weeks.

On the southern part of the front, in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the RF Armed Forces are strengthening defensive lines and positions.

The expectations of the spring counter-offensive are being lowered in Ukraine, and allies are voicing fears about whether its goals are achievable. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would not disclose the timing of the counterattacks, but the Russians "still have time to leave, otherwise we will destroy them." Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov said that only four or five people know the details of the future counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully consider certain statements on this topic. The Washington Post writes that Ukraine allegedly delayed the counteroffensive "due to weather, slow equipment supplies, and ammunition shortages, heightening fears of a stalemate," the newspaper writes. Further complicating the planned counterattack is the leak of US intelligence documents. They also believe that the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is doubtful - due to problems with equipment and ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian fortifications.

At the same time, the topic of the Ukrainian counter-offensive may turn out to be an element of an information-psychological operation. To influence the Russian Federation (to provoke tension and panic among the population of the occupied territories, to force the movement of troops, etc.), to create an image of victory within Ukrainian society, and to receive more extensive military-technical assistance from Western partners. Or, discussion of a counter-offensive is an attempt to drown the truth in a flood of disinformation, which makes it difficult for the Russian side to determine the timing and direction of the Ukrainian attack.

In any case, rumors of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive are already paying off for Ukraine. Since they create a constant overstrain in the ranks of the Russian troops and the command, introduce elements of destabilization and panic in the occupied territories, the command is also forced to carry out constant redeployment of combat personnel, build defensive structures in different directions at the same time, etc. In such a situation of uncertainty and tension, the Russian command may miss the main blow, then and where it will be least expected. But if the counter-offensive does not take place or its results are inconclusive, this could significantly negatively affect public opinion within Ukraine and the international assessment of the situation.

The members of the parliament of Ukraine voted for the return of payments of 30 thousand hryvnia to military personnel, as well as employees of the National Police and the State Emergency Service, who serve in the rear.

But in practice, there may be problems with payments, since for this it will be necessary to make changes to the budget by another law. About 149 billion hryvnias a year are needed to ensure the return of military surcharges. Changes to the budget for payments were adopted with an amendment, according to which, allowances for the military are provided by a reduction in the salaries of civil servants. But these savings will only be enough to cover 2% of the amount required for payments. It is likely that international donors (in particular, the IMF) also oppose the resumption of additional payments to the military. So the next day, April 11, 2023. after voting for the relevant law, a blocking resolution was submitted to the Rada (8312-P of 04/11/2023), the author of the project is Volodymyr Tsybal from the Voice faction. Until this resolution is considered in the hall, the speaker does not have the right to sign the law. This will not happen in the coming weeks due to the schedule of Rada meetings. At the same time, the adopted law should somewhat reduce the intensity of indignation among the military and in society as a whole, which arose after the payments were canceled. Additional payments of 30,000 to the military in the rear were canceled by order of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine from February 1. The petition demanding the return of payments quickly gained the necessary votes, and President Volodymyr Zelensky handed it over to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Denis Shmygal, for consideration.

The IMF has published a new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine for the next five years. The IMF gives the minimum indicators of the expected growth of the Ukrainian economy and investment. But the real figures may be higher, including investments in the restoration of Ukraine. The IMF expects that the war in Ukraine will end within 12-18 months. In the worst case, according to the IMF forecast, the war in Ukraine will end in the fall of 2024.

In the first scenario, the dynamics of GDP in 2023 are indicated very vaguely - from minus 3% to plus 1%. In 2025, the largest GDP growth is expected - 6.5%, in 2026 - 5%, and 2027 - 4%. According to the negative scenario, the Ukrainian economy will fall for another two years. Moreover, in 2023, GDP will collapse by 10%, and in 2024 - by 2%. In general, there is a very large difference in forecasts for Ukraine's GDP growth in forecasts from various analytical sources. For example, Sense Bank expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 5.5% this year, while Oxford Economics says it will fall by 4.6%. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has worsened its forecast for 2023 - if GDP growth was initially expected at 3.2%, now it is only 1%. The Ministry of Economy and the National Bank of Ukraine changed their forecasts for GDP growth due to the negative impact of blackouts and after the IMF issued a macro forecast. That is, we can say that 1% of economic growth is agreed with the Fund. The World Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine from 3.3% to 0.5%.

The basis of GDP growth will be provided by consumer spending of citizens, in 2027 they will reach 93% of 2021. It is predicted that government spending in the next five years will only decrease and pull GDP down. Investments will slightly support economic growth in 2024-2025, but will already begin to slow down.

There will also be an increase in the debt burden. If in 2021 the state and guaranteed debts of Ukraine amounted to 50.4% of GDP, and in 2022 - 81.7%, then in 2023 the figure will increase to 98.3%. And already from 2024, debts will exceed the size of GDP (they will amount to 105%). By 2027, a gradual decrease in the debt burden is expected, but it will still be more than 100% of GDP (in 2025 - 104.1%, in 2026 - 102%, in 2027 - 100.2%).

This year and next year, citizens should prepare for a fairly significant increase in prices. In the next two years, inflation (and hence price growth) will remain quite high - 20% this year and 12.5% in 2024. At the same time, wages will grow at a much more modest pace. This year they will generally sink by another 2%, and in 2024 they will increase by 2.5%. That is, the real incomes of Ukrainians will decrease even more. The unemployment rate, although it will gradually decrease, will remain at a record 20.9% this year (before the war, this figure was below 10%).

Ukrainian exports, according to the IMF, shortly will remain below the pre-war level by 40%. Quite restrained forecasts of the IMF on the inflow of investments into Ukraine are noteworthy. The IMF forecast implies the absence of a "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine and a sluggish recovery at its own expense with increasing debts. Which forms a gray zone with the loss of 10-15 million people. For direct investment - 75 billion over 10 years. And with total losses of an estimated $411 billion.

Ukraine summed up the results of the heating season. According to Ukrenergo, the Russian Federation fired more than 1,200 missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy facilities. In total, according to Forbes, Russia has fired about 4,750 missiles into Ukraine worth $16 billion since the start of the full-scale invasion. According to the Ukrainian military command, now the Ukrainian air defense destroys about 75% of cruise missiles and attacks drones, and the remaining 25% reach the target. More than 250 missiles and drones hit critical infrastructure, damaging about 43% of backbone network facilities. All thermal and hydroelectric power stations were damaged to varying degrees. To date, more than 80% of the damaged backbone network has been returned to operation. It is reported that Ukrenergo has attracted 700 million euros to restore the energy system, and $ 1 billion will be needed to continue restoration work in 2023.

Recall that at the end of 2022, losses from damage to energy infrastructure were estimated at $6.8 billion. And according to state officials, due to massive Russian shelling, Ukraine could need $2 billion in additional subsidies. As we can see, the situation has been stabilized and additional funds in this amount will not be needed to service the Ukrainian energy system. In addition, Ukraine resumes the export of electricity.

The development of the conflict around the UOC continues. Now the head of the UOC, Metropolitan Onufry, has been directly subjected to informational discredit. Thus, Ukrainska Pravda claims to have received data from the Russian Passport automatic system, according to which more than 20 clergy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, including Metropolitan Onufry, have Russian passports. The UOC reported that this information is not true. As for the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, it seems that a decision has been made to act more on a legal plane. The state abandoned its intention to immediately evict the monks of the UOC until the appropriate court decision, and now, perhaps, history will go a long way, primarily due to international attention to this issue. Also, the government team is concerned about the strengthening and PR of P. Poroshenko on this topic. The first court hearing, in this case, will take place at the end of April.

The official visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to Poland intensified rumors about the deepening of military-political cooperation between the countries and the search for integration models. In particular, issues of cooperation in the field of the military-industrial complex were put as a priority for discussion. Ukraine and Poland have signed a protocol of intent between countries to cooperate in the supply of defense equipment - in particular, 150 Rosomak wheeled armored personnel carriers. They also discussed issues of the economy, cross-border traffic, railway communication, and expanding opportunities for crossing the border. Ukraine and Poland settled a dispute over the export of Ukrainian grain (this issue caused a crisis between the Polish government and farmers).

President V. Zelensky said that in the future there will be no borders between Ukraine and Poland. "In the future, there will be no borders between our peoples: political, economic, and - what is very important - historical. But for this, we still need to win. For this we need to go side by side a little more," the President of Ukraine said. Formally, V. Zelensky meant Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, which creates a single legal and political field and removes borders. Also in Ukraine and Poland, the idea of a possible transitional or replacement format for Ukrainian integration into the West is quite popular in expert circles. We are talking about the creation of a new confederal or interstate association of Ukraine with Poland, the Baltic countries, and Moldova. At one time, this initiative was actively promoted by the political circles of the United States and Great Britain, as a fallback or temporary option in the event of the failure of Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has so far seized the initiative in promoting Chinese peace initiatives. After the visit to China of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. State Chinese media reported that E. Macron brought to Beijing some proposals on Ukraine, which "China welcomed." E. Macron may be preparing some kind of compromise plan to offer to all players. Chinese leader Xi Jinping likely sees France as one of the possible allies in Europe. And in this regard, France's resentment at the creation of the AUKUS security alliance between the United States, Great Britain, and Australia (it was created to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region) played an important role. Then Australia, without prior notice, canceled the French-Australian deal for the supply of nuclear submarines for 56 billion euros (90 billion Australian dollars) and reduced the development of a strategic partnership with France. And now, regarding the AUKUS alliance, France is ready to play along with China. Against this background, Brazilian President Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine discuss the status of Crimea to start negotiations with the Russian Federation and end the war. Lula da Silva admitted that the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky "cannot want everything", but V. Putin "cannot seize the territory of Ukraine". Therefore, "perhaps we will discuss Crimea." It is expected that Ukraine categorically refused such an initiative. In general, the progress of Chinese peace initiatives will ultimately depend on the position of the United States.

Xi Jinping is likely counting on playing on France's ambitions to create a greater crisis in relations with Washington and the EU. The visit of the President of France to China may hurt the provision of assistance to Ukraine. According to the Polish agency PAP, citing a high-ranking representative of the European Union, France has blocked the EU's decision to finance the supply of ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Russia continues to bid for the extension of the grain corridor, where ships are now slowly passing. Grain "plug" in the ports creates real problems for the agricultural sector and calls into question a new sowing campaign in Ukraine. In general, the extension of the "grain deal" in May remains in doubt. It seems that the Russian Federation intends to suspend the operation of the grain corridor and is conducting informational preparations for this public opinion at the international level. But in the end, the situation will largely depend on the position of China and Turkey on this issue - the main trading partners of the Russian Federation. According to the UN, at the end of February, about 21.5 million tons of grain were exported through it since the start of the grain corridor. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported more than 30 million tons of grain for the 2022-2023 season (not only along the grain corridor but in total). But approximately how much grain is still stored domestically. At the negotiations on the extension of the "grain deal", the Ukrainian side raises questions about expanding the list of ports involved in the deal (in particular, at the expense of the Mykolaiv port, as well as the export nomenclature).

Military situation

Combat action.

The situation in the Kharkiv region: without significant changes.

In Donbas: The RF Armed Forces are advancing in the Limansky, Bakhmutsky, Avdiivsky, and Maryinsky directions. The main battles are taking place in the areas of the cities of Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Maryinka. Attacks of the RF Armed Forces repulsed in the area of settlements Kreminna, Bilogorivka, Spirne, Nevsky, and Serebryansky forestries in the Luhansk region. In the Donetsk region attacks were repelled - in areas of settlements Verkhnekamensky, Peremoha, Novokalinovo, Pershotravneve, Bogdanivka, Ivanivske, Chromove, Pivnichne, Berdichi, Vodyane.

The situation in the South: without significant changes. On the Zaporozhzhia and Kherson directions, the RF Armed Forces improved defensive lines and positions.

Black Sea-Azov direction: without significant changes.

Combat map.

 

Domestic policy.

Economic situation.

The IMF has published a new macroeconomic forecast for Ukraine for the next five years. It contains several scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy. The IMF expects that the war in Ukraine will end within 12-18 months and then the country will return to peaceful development. In the worst case, according to the Foundation’s forecast, the war in Ukraine will end in the fall of 2024. And after that, peaceful development will begin, but not fast.

According to the expectations of the IMF, which were agreed with the government of Ukraine and the NBU, over the next 5 years, it will allow Ukraine to reach the level of 83% of GDP in 2021 - not a happy prospect. At 70% this year.

Citizens should prepare for a fairly significant increase in prices. In the next two years, inflation (and hence price growth) will remain quite high - 20% this year and 12.5% in 2024. At the same time, wages will grow at a much more modest pace. This year they will generally sink by another 2%, and in 2024 they will increase by 2.5%. That is, the real incomes of Ukrainians will decrease even more. The unemployment rate, although it will gradually decrease, will remain at a record 20.9% this year (before the war, this figure was below 10%).

The first is the base scenario. The dynamics of GDP in 2023 are very blurred in it - from minus 3% to plus 1%. In general, according to expectations for the growth of Ukraine's GDP in the forecasts from different analysts, there is a very large spread. For example, Sense Bank expects the Ukrainian economy to grow by 5.5% this year, while Oxford Economics predicts a fall of 4.6%. The Ministry of Economy of Ukraine has worsened its forecast for 2023 - if GDP growth was initially expected at 3.2%, now it is only 1%. The Ministry of Economy and the National Bank of Ukraine changed their forecasts for GDP growth due to the negative impact of blackouts and after the IMF issued a macro forecast. That is, we can say that 1% of economic growth is agreed with the Fund. The World Bank lowered its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine from 3.3% to 0.5%.

In 2025, the Fund expects the largest GDP growth - 6.5%, in 2026 - 5%, in 2027 - 4%. The IMF forecasts for inflation are as follows. In 2023, it will be 20% (that is, it will decrease by almost 10% compared to last year), in 2024 - 12.5%, in 2025 - 8%, and 2026 - 6%. Inflation will return to the pre-war level (5% per year) only by 2027. In 2023, salaries will generally be reduced by 2%, next year they will increase by 2.5%, in 2026 - by 5%, and in 2027 - by 4%.

The IMF is counting on the growth of consumer spending - by 2027 they should be 93% of the pre-war figures. Against the backdrop of low wages, this is only possible if taxes are raised, in particular the value-added tax.

There will also be an increase in the debt burden. If in 2021 the state and guaranteed debts of Ukraine amounted to 50.4% of GDP, and in 2022 - 81.7%, then in 2023 the figure will increase to 98.3%. And already from 2024 (which in general should be better for the economy than this year), debts will exceed the size of GDP (they will amount to 105%). By 2027, a gradual decrease in the debt burden is expected, but it will still be more than 100% of GDP (in 2025 - 104.1%, in 2026 - 102%, in 2027 - 100.2%).

The second scenario is negative.

According to him, the Ukrainian economy will fall for another two years. Moreover, in 2023, GDP will collapse by 10%, and in 2024 - by 2%. Inflation may also accelerate, and the imbalance in the foreign exchange market will remain. Debt financing needs will reach about $7 billion and will remain at high levels until 2028-2033.

Quite restrained forecasts of the IMF on the inflow of investments into Ukraine are noteworthy. Against the backdrop of the war, the situation in the economy not only worsened, but other problems that investors talked about even before the war, in particular with corruption, courts, etc., worsened. That is, the business climate as a whole became worse than before the war, even without taking into account the hostilities themselves and the risks associated with them.

The key obstacles to recovery in 2023 are the low resilience of the energy infrastructure, the decline in agricultural production due to financing problems, and low product prices. This may lead to a decrease in sown areas and volumes of fertilizer use, which will reduce the yield of grains and oilseeds by 15-20%. A significant reduction in metallurgical production is also taken into account (and, accordingly, a decrease in exports in this direction, which was one of the keys before the war). Ukrainian exports, according to the IMF, shortly will remain below the pre-war level by 40%.

On April 8, the heating season ended in Ukraine, in connection with which Ukrenergo summed up the results of the winter. The Russian Federation fired more than 1,200 missiles and drones at Ukrainian energy facilities, the company reports. More than 250 missiles and drones hit the target, damaging about 43% of backbone network facilities. All thermal and hydroelectric power stations were damaged to varying degrees. To date, more than 80% of the damaged backbone network has been returned to operation. It is reported that Ukrenergo attracted 700 million euros to restore the energy system, and $ 1 billion will be needed to continue restoration work in 2023. Recall that at the end of 2022, losses from damage to the energy infrastructure were estimated at $ 6.8 billion. And according to officials of the state because of the massive Russian shelling, Ukraine could need $ 2 billion in additional subsidies. As we can see, the situation has been stabilized and additional funds in this amount will not be needed to service the Ukrainian energy system.

Ukraine also resumes the export of electricity. At the same time, meeting the needs for electricity for Ukrainian consumers will be a priority. And the export of electricity will work subject to the provision of Ukrainian consumers with electricity and may be terminated if the situation changes.

According the Minister of Energy of Ukraine Herman Galushchenko, he signed an administrative document allowing to start the process of resuming the export of electricity in the face of a surplus of generating capacity. " The Ukrainian energy system has been operating for almost two months without restrictions from consumers with a power reserve ... The next step is the opening of electricity exports, which will attract additional financial resources for the necessary restoration of the destroyed and repair of damaged energy infrastructure," said G.Galushchenko. The authorized capacity for export by the European network of transmission system operators ENTSO-E is 400 MW. However, actual export volumes may fluctuate depending on time and market conditions.

The Verkhovna Rada dismissed the head of the Accounts Chamber Valery Patskan.

Parliament dismissed the head of the Accounts Chamber Valery Patskan on the second attempt. "Yea" voted - 250 deputies. Also announced is the imminent introduction of Gennady Plis to the post of head of the Accounts Chamber. G. Plis has worked as Deputy Minister of Finance in the government of Oleksiy Goncharuk since 2019 and headed the State Audit Service from 2019-2022. " This is one of the last conditionally independent elements of control in the state, and it is coming under the control of the authorities," MP Alexei Goncharenko commented on the vote for the resignation of V. Patskan and the upcoming appointment of Plis.

The process of changing the head of the Accounts Chamber was probably put on hold for several months because bidding and negotiations could be conducted behind the scenes as to who would control this department in the future. It is highly likely that behind this are, among other things, the interests of Western partners who want to control the main financial flows in the country. And the candidacy of Gennady Plis, who at one time worked as Deputy Minister of Finance in the government of Alexei Goncharuk, nevertheless turned out to be the most compromising figure in this regard.

Recall that on November 7, NABU and SAPO completed an investigation into the ex-people's deputy and head of the Accounts Chamber Valery Patskan, who is accused of illegally receiving compensation for housing in 2017. He called it a "political showdown." Later, the budget committee recommended that the Verkhovna Rada support his dismissal, on December 1, 2022, the Rada failed to vote on the resignation of V. Patskan.

Parliament voted to return payments of 30,000 to the military in the rear.

On April 10, the deputies of the Verkhovna Rada voted for the return of payments of 30 thousand hryvnias to military personnel, as well as to employees of the National Police and the State Emergency Service who serve in the rear. During the discussion for the second reading of the relevant Draft Law No. 8312, an amendment was put to the vote, providing for the return of payments to 30,000 military personnel, the civil protection service, and the police. The amendment received 254 votes, the law itself - 277. Dmitry Razumkov made this amendment to the bill on regulating certain aspects of the implementation of measures for the expropriation of property during the legal regime of martial law. In practice, there may be problems with payments, since for this it will be necessary to make changes to the budget by another law.

As people's deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak explains, here you need to pay attention to the editing itself. In short, it returns the allowance to defenders by saving on reduced salaries for civil servants and management of state enterprises (up to 10 times the minimum wage).

And here is the main thing for the return of allowances to work:

- most likely, you need to change the budget;

- the restriction on salaries to 10 min. is a very small saving.

Even 2% of the planned costs will not be enough. Let me remind you that we spent UAH 2.7 billion a day on payments to the military. For now, it would be correct to say this: the monetary allowance of workers, employees, and officials of budgetary institutions / state-owned enterprises was limited to ten times the minimum wage, Zheleznyak says. To ensure the return of military surcharges, about 149 billion hryvnias a year are needed, which is 98% of the required amount, said People's Deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak. Changes to the budget for payments were adopted with the amendment, according to which, allowances for the military are provided with a reduction in the salaries of civil servants. At the same time, he calculated that these savings would only be enough to cover 2% of the amount required for payments.

The next day, April 11, 2023, a blocking resolution (8312-P dated April 11, 2023) was introduced to the Rada according to the law, in which an amendment was made to return additional payments of 30 thousand to the military and limit salaries. The author of the project is Vladimir Tsybal from the "Voice" faction. " Until this resolution is considered in the hall, the speaker does not have the right to sign the law. And this will not happen in the coming weeks due to the schedule of meetings of the Rada, ”explains the people’s deputy from the Holos faction Yaroslav Zheleznyak

Since the beginning of the war, military personnel and other security forces received, in addition to their salary, an allowance of 30-100 thousand hryvnias, depending on the mode of service.

However, the authorities decided to significantly cut the allowances for those security forces who are not directly in the combat zone. Additional payments of 30,000 to the military in the rear were canceled by order of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine from February 1.

Only those who fight directly on the front line can now count on an allowance of 100 thousand. But only if it is confirmed by the journal of issuing combat orders - per the "zones of warfare" established by the Commander-in-Chief. Logs of finding fighters on the front lines are now kept by officers at headquarters. For example, some areas of the Kherson region on the right bank of the Dnieper, although shells regularly fly there, according to the orders of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, are not considered combat zones.

The allowance of 30 thousand, which was previously received by all the military without exception (having a total of about 44 thousand hryvnias), is now paid only to those who are in the "reserve of the Commander-in-Chief", as well as to those who serve in the second or third line of defense and perform tasks to provide advanced.

The military, depending on the specifics of combat missions and their place of residence, will receive:

• Front line: salary +100 thousand for combat missions;

• Forward-rear, south, north: salary +30 thousand hryvnia payments;

• All others: base salary.

That is, those who have just been called up for mobilization and are undergoing training at a training center, as well as those who serve in the TRO, even in border areas or in the rear, cannot count on an allowance. And the rank and file will receive only a minimum of 20,100 hryvnia. Do not receive any allowances and those who fell ill and were sent for treatment - without injury. And also - vacationers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

All this caused indignation among many Ukrainian militaries. The petition demanding the return of payments quickly gained the necessary votes, and President Volodymyr Zelensky handed it over to the head of the Cabinet of Ministers, Denis Shmygal, for consideration.

But the recently adopted changes to the state budget do not imply the return of increased salaries to the military. After all, the increase in spending on the army is associated with an increase in the number of military personnel.

Mobilization is underway in Ukraine, new military formations continue to be recruited, which requires additional funding.

In 2022, state budget spending on the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the State Border Service amounted to more than 1.021 trillion hryvnia, the lion's share of which was payments to the military. And in 2023, 570.92 billion hryvnias were allocated in the budget to finance these structures, which is 451 billion hryvnias less.

But as you know, the Verkhovna Rada made changes to the state budget of Ukraine for 2023, increasing spending by 537.2 billion hryvnias, mainly on security and defense - UAH 518 billion + 19 billion to the reserve fund.

Including:

• Ministry of Defense - UAH 372.4 billion. Of these, wages - UAH 364 billion;

• National Police, State Border Service, National Guard, State Emergency Service - UAH 98.3 billion. Of these, wages - UAH 95.9 billion;

• GUR - UAH 4.6 billion;

• SBU – UAH 9.3 billion;

• Administration of the State Service for Special Communications - UAH 31.6 billion;

• Foreign intelligence services - UAH 807.6 million;

• NABU - UAH 50.6 million.

Along with a decrease in the volume of additional payments to military personnel of UAH 30,000, since February 1, there has been an increase in the size of the minimum monetary allowance, which will also require additional funding from the budget.

Also, the Ukrainian army suffers losses. And the state continues to fulfill its obligations by paying 100,000 hryvnias to the wounded soldiers and 15 million hryvnias to the families of the victims.

All these are huge funds that the state must find from internal sources.

The Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov said that the Ministry of Defense "saved" about 100 billion hryvnias by cutting allowances for the military, which will be used in the future to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Recall that from February 1, the salary for the military in the war zone, which was set at 100,000 hryvnia, will not change. But the size the monthly monetary remuneration of military personnel will increase by 50%.

So the minimum cash security is now:

• For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the National Guard, and the State Border Guard Service - the minimum level will be 20,100 hryvnia

• The ordinary and commanding staff of the State Emergency Service and the National Police - at least 17,000 hryvnias

That is, if a serviceman received 13,000 hryvnia, the minimum allowance last year, then from February 1, such a serviceman will receive a minimum allowance of 20,000 hryvnia. On the "front" line, a serviceman will receive a minimum allowance of 20,000 hryvnias with an additional reward of 100,000 hryvnias - that is, 120,000 hryvnias per month.

The situation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church.

Until now, the commission of the National Reserve of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra has not been able to start the process of transferring the premises of the Lavra to state use, its work has been blocked by believers of the UOC.

Against the background of the events in the monastery of the UOC in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, whose brethren refused to leave the monastery, in several regions, the process of transferring communities and churches to the OCU began. They take place in the following order - OCU supporters gather under the churches and try to enter them by voting and thus "transferring" the churches to their church.

The only cathedral of the UOC in Lviv (St. George the Victorious on Taras Bobanych Street) was transferred to the ownership of the OCU. In addition, the head of the Lviv Regional State Administration, Maxim Kozitsky, published a video of the demolition of, as he put it, " the last outpost of the Moscow church in Lviv." In the video - the temple of the Holy Equal-to-the-Apostles Prince Vladimir, is located in the Sykhiv residential area.

In parallel, city councils are revoking land rights previously granted to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. For example, the UOC was deprived of the right to use land in the city of Rivne. This process has become massive in the Khmelnytsky and Lviv regions, where the UOC is deprived of the largest cathedrals. Also, against the background of the intensification of transfers of churches from the UOC to the OCU, the Rada announces the so-called. " new legislative initiatives to cleanse the Ukrainian churches from the remnants of the " Russian world ".

In its publication Ukrayinska Pravda, claimed to have received data from the Russian Passport automatic system, according to which more than 20 clergy of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, including Metropolitan Onufry, have Russian passports. The UOC reported that this information is not true. " Some of the bishops mentioned in the video were deprived of citizenship without justification, and therefore they filed a lawsuit demanding the restoration of their Ukrainian citizenship since they have no other. The court opened proceedings on their petition. Since the SBU has repeatedly stated that it checked all the bishops of the UOC for dual citizenship and did not revoke Ukrainian citizenship from other bishops mentioned in the story, the information provided in the video does not correspond to reality. His Beatitude Metropolitan Onufry has been a citizen of Ukraine since birth and does not own passports of other states,” the UOC said.

At the same time, the head of the UOC, Metropolitan Onufry, confirmed that he previously had Russian citizenship along with Ukrainian. But currently, he has only Ukrainian citizenship. According to him, he spent 19 years as a monk of the Holy Trinity Sergius Lavra in the Moscow region - after he graduated from the Moscow Theological Seminary and Academy (Onufry could not enter Odessa). At the time of the collapse of the Union, since 1988, Onufry was already in Ukraine, in the Pochaev Lavra. At the same time, his residence permit remained Russian, so in 1991, when the USSR ceased to exist, he automatically became a citizen of Russia. But he also received a Ukrainian passport at the same time, remaining in Ukraine. According to Metropolitan Onufry, "There were good fraternal relations between Ukraine and Russia. When these relations began to deteriorate, especially in the last ten years, I left Russian citizenship ." " I don't have a Russian passport," Onufry added.

As for the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, it seems that a decision has been made to act more on a legal plane. The state abandoned its intention to immediately evict the monks of the UOC until the appropriate court decision, and now, perhaps, history will go a long way, primarily due to international attention to this issue. Also, the government team is concerned about the strengthening and PR of P. Poroshenko on this topic. The first court hearing, in this case, will take place at the end of April. According to the head of the Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy Nikita Poturaev, the eviction of the UOC from the monastery will have to wait until the court's decision. " I urge everyone to be realistic... The Ukrainian state had the right to make these decisions, and they should already be implemented. But these decisions are being appealed in court. And if we have to wait for the decision of the court, which, I am convinced, will confirm the legality of these decisions, then should wait, "- said N. Poturaev. He urged to focus on the European practice of resolving such conflicts: “ It is worth waiting so that in the future there will be no problems with appealing against these decisions. So that none of the so-called experts or journalists, including those abroad, question these decisions so that this it just couldn't be done ."

The situation around Ukraine.

Peace negotiations.

Last week, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky paid an official visit to Poland. Which is an attempt to enlist support and further consolidate the partnership between Ukraine and Poland at the bilateral level. In particular, issues of cooperation in the field of the military-industrial complex were put as a priority for discussion. In addition, issues of the economy, cross-border traffic, railway communication, and expansion of opportunities for crossing the border were discussed. Ukraine and Poland settled a dispute over the export of Ukrainian grain (this issue caused a crisis between the Polish government and farmers).

The main statement of the President of Poland A. Duda:

Poland is promoting security guarantees for Ukraine from NATO and wants them to be provided before the Alliance's summer summit in Vilnius.

Warsaw supports Ukraine on the path to NATO membership.

Poland has already handed over four MiG-29s to Ukraine, and delivery of four more fighters is in progress. Later, the Polish side will be able to send six more combat aircraft.

The main statement from the Prime Minister of Poland M. Marowiecki:

Ukraine's place in NATO and the EU. Ukraine's membership in these organizations will ensure even greater security for Poland.

Poland wants, together with Ukraine, to build a new security architecture for NATO and the EU.

Warsaw wants genuine peace and criticizes those who call for an end to hostilities and the surrender of Ukraine as soon as possible. It is from Ukraine that what the world will be like should depend.

Poland will continue to support Ukraine and also wants to take part in its post-war reconstruction.

President V. Zelensky paid much attention to the fact that Kyiv and Warsaw are solving issues of a historical nature together. And he said that in the future there will be no borders between Ukraine and Poland. "In the future, there will be no borders between our peoples: political, economic, and - what is very important - historical. But for this, we still need to win. For this we need to go side by side a little more," the President of Ukraine said. Formally, V. Zelensky meant Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, which creates a single legal and political field and removes borders. In Ukraine and Poland, the idea of a possible transitional or replacement format for Ukrainian integration into the West is quite popular in expert circles. We are talking about the creation of a new confederal or interstate association of Ukraine with Poland, the Baltic countries, and Moldova. This initiative was actively promoted in the USA and Great Britain as a fallback or temporary option in case of failure of Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO.

At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen paid a visit to China.

E. Macron and Ursula von der Leyen said they want to convince China to use its influence on Russia to establish peace in Ukraine. Or at least prevent Beijing from directly supporting Moscow.

Before the start of the visit, China declared its readiness to discuss with the EU a political settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. Also, China, on the eve of Macron's visit, pointedly demonstrated its neutrality concerning the war in Ukraine.

Upon his arrival in China, French President Emmanuel Macron said that China could play a "main role" in the war in Ukraine due to close relations with Russia. He said that maintaining a dialogue with China was essential and that Moscow should not be allowed to have an exclusive dialogue with Beijing.

Presented at the end of February, the Chinese "peace plan" for Ukraine shows "the will to contribute to the resolution of the conflict," Macron said on Wednesday, April 5, on the first day of his visit to Beijing.

In a statement after a meeting with French President Empress Macron, Chinese leader Xi Jinping called on Ukraine and Russia to resume peace talks and find a political solution to the conflict. China expressed its readiness to work together with France to achieve a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, a French diplomatic source said. "President Macron and Xi have agreed to ' work hard' to hasten the end of the war and push for negotiations to begin in full respect of international law," a French diplomatic source said. In general, the rhetoric was in the spirit of the Chinese peace plan - the immediate resumption of negotiations and a ceasefire (which Ukraine opposes). At the same time, characteristically, the state-run Chinese media write that E. Macron brought to Beijing some proposals on Ukraine, which " China welcomed ." If this is true, then E. Macron may be preparing some kind of compromise plan to offer to all players. And judging by China's reaction, Beijing saw it as consonant with its plan.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping likely sees France as one of the possible allies in Europe. And in this regard, France's resentment at the creation of the AUKUS security alliance between the United States, Great Britain, and Australia (it was created to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region) played an important role. Then Australia, without prior notice, canceled the French-Australian deal for the supply of nuclear submarines for 56 billion euros (90 billion Australian dollars) and reduced the development of a strategic partnership with France. And now, regarding the AUKUS alliance, France is ready to play along with China. Whereas Xi Jinping hopes that by playing on France's ambitions, he can create a bigger crisis in relations with Washington and the EU. China needs to demonstrate that it is gradually alienating the EU from the US and the White House no longer enjoys the unconditional support of Europe. In turn, the strengthening of EU sovereignty from the United States will lead to an increase in China's influence in Europe.

The Western media write with some concern about a possible rapprochement between the positions of China and the leading European countries, seeing this as a threat to the unity of the US and the EU. According to Reuters, Xi Jinping persuaded Macron to "confront" with the United States. The Chinese leader considers France one of the likely allies in Europe, " this is also indicated by China's diminished attention to Ursula von der Leyen, who arrived with Macron ."

At the same time, Brazilian President Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine discuss the status of Crimea to start negotiations with the Russian Federation and end the war. Lula da Silva admitted that President Zelensky " cannot want everything," but Putin " cannot seize the territory of Ukraine ." Therefore, " maybe we will discuss Crimea ." Da Silva expressed confidence in the success of this project and is going to present it to his Chinese counterpart in Beijing next week. The head of the Brazilian state hopes upon his return from China to create a group of countries that can help resolve the Ukrainian conflict. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reacted. " The Ukrainian position remains unchanged: any mediation efforts to restore peace in Ukraine must be based on respect for the sovereignty and full restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine per the principles of the UN Charter," Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said.

But in general, the progress of Chinese peace initiatives will ultimately depend on the position of the United States. Since it is there that they mainly decide how to regulate military and financial support to Ukraine - in essence, its ability to conduct resistance at the front, and based on this, already dictate its peace conditions.

Military and financial assistance to Ukraine.

During the visit of President V. Zelensky, Ukraine and Poland agreed on defense cooperation. According to the Office of the Polish Prime Minister, M. Morawiecki and V. Zelensky signed a protocol of intent between countries on cooperation in the supply of defense equipment - in particular wheeled armored personnel carriers Rosomak. Member of the Council of Ministers of Poland Michal Dvorczyk said that Kyiv ordered from Warsaw:

• 150 Rosomak armored personnel carriers;

• 3 company modules of RAK self-propelled mortars;

• 100 Polish MANPADS Piorun.

Earlier in Warsaw, it was announced that Soviet-made MiG-29 fighters, which were in service with Poland, were already being transferred to Ukraine. The first few MiGs have reportedly already arrived. The total number of cars is not officially called; according to estimates, we can talk about 10-20 aircraft - out of 28 that Poland has. In mid-March, Slovakia decided to transfer 13 of its MiGs to Kyiv.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that the United States is planning additional deliveries of Abrams and Bradley to Ukraine. " The United States will make additional deliveries of weapons to Ukraine, in particular, we talked about Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Abrams tanks. This is already a question for the Americans ... Of course, we asked them to help Ukraine as widely as possible, since it depends on how victory in the war can be achieved quickly,” M. Morawiecki said after a meeting with US Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington. He added that Poland is also doing everything in its power to help Ukraine with additional weapons.

By the summer, Ukraine will begin to receive Leopard-1 tanks from Denmark, in total we are talking about about 100 tanks. Also in May, Ukraine can receive CAESAR self-propelled guns. The Ukrainian military is already studying at training grounds in Denmark.

Ukraine is now seeking to obtain F-16 fighter jets from its Western allies. However, the training period for them is about four years. But if a difficult situation develops for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then such decisions from the West cannot be ruled out.

In the draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2023. foreign financing provided $38 billion. Last week, the IMF approved a $15.6 billion aid package. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said during a meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington that the allied countries are ready to provide financing to Ukraine by the end of the year. If the war ends by mid-2024, the IMF estimates that Ukraine's need for external financing will amount to $115 billion. If it lasts until the end of 2025, the need will increase to $140 billion. At the same time, the cost of restoring Ukraine after the war is estimated by the World Bank at $411 billion. Donor countries will coordinate long-term assistance to Ukraine through a separate platform, as well as provide funds for urgent recovery, namely the repair of energy networks.

For its part, Ukraine calculated the damage from Russian aggression, it amounted to $700 billion.

According to information, from the chief consultant of the department of organizational work of the office of the head of the OPU Oleg Gavrish, the invaders destroyed and damaged:

• 74.4 thousand residential buildings;

• about 2.5 thousand educational institutions;

• 500 hospitals;

• 400 cultural buildings;

• 120 religious buildings;

• 4.5 thousand objects of networks and communications;

• 114 energy facilities.

Ukraine will take all measures so that the Russian Federation compensates for this damage. This will take about 5-7 years, in the worst case - up to 10 years, says O. Gavrish.

Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine and the United States continue to announce a large Ukrainian counter-offensive during the spring-summer of this year. In particular, the United States expects Ukraine to launch such a counteroffensive in the coming weeks. Julianne Smith, Permanent Representative of Washington to NATO, announced this. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would not disclose the timing of the counterattacks, but the Russians "still have time to leave, otherwise we will destroy them." Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Oleksiy Danilov said that only four or five people know the details of the future counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully consider certain statements on this topic.

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the President's Office, said that Ukraine would be able to return to Crimea in 5-7 months. At the end of November 2022, Podolyak promised to be in Yalta in six months, that is, by May-June. His new forecast - 5-7 months from the beginning of April - shifts these dates to the beginning of September-beginning of November 2023.

Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the entire war could end this year without Ukraine negotiating with Putin. That is, one must understand that by the end of the year, not only Crimea but also Donbas will be liberated by military means.

At the same time, A. Reznikov nevertheless recognized the possibility of negotiations, but only on the terms of Ukraine - after the withdrawal of Russian troops with further agreement on reparations and indemnities.

But forecasts in Western countries are mixed. In general, it can be concluded that an unsuccessful or heavy loss attempt by Ukrainian troops to retake their territories may push the allies to induce Ukraine to start negotiations with the Russian Federation. For these expectations of Western partners to come true, Ukraine at least needs to conduct a successful counteroffensive in the coming months. Having broken through the southern front and reached the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov and the Crimea (without this, one cannot speak of the beginning of the struggle for the peninsula).

The Washington Post writes that Ukraine has delayed the counteroffensive " due to weather, slow equipment supplies, and ammunition shortages, heightening fears of a stalemate," the newspaper writes. Further complicating the planned counterattack is the leaking of US intelligence documents.

The Washington Post also believes that the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive is doubtful - due to problems with equipment and ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian fortifications.

Reuters also wrote about the preparation of the offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the agency, Ukraine is preparing 40,000 fighters for this. We are talking about eight new assault brigades of the Offensive Guard, which is being prepared by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Interior Minister Igor Klymenko told the news agency that he believes Ukraine still has significant mobilization potential and that its recruits include women, people with no military experience, and former police and military personnel. Reuters writes that much depends on the expected counter-offensive of Kyiv. A failed and costly attempt to retake territory from Russian troops could undermine optimism among key Western supporters and push them to encourage Kyiv to open talks with Moscow.

In general, the topic of the Ukrainian counter-offensive may turn out to be an element of an information-psychological operation. To influence the Russian Federation (to provoke panic among the population of the occupied territories, to force the movement of troops, etc.), to create an image of victory within Ukrainian society, and to receive more extensive military-technical assistance from Western partners. Or, talk of a counter-offensive is an attempt to drown the truth in a flood of disinformation, which makes it difficult for the Russian side to determine the timing and direction of the Ukrainian attack.

In any case, rumors of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive are already paying off for Ukraine. Since they create a constant overstrain in the ranks of the Russian troops and the command, introduce elements of destabilization and panic in the occupied territories, the command is also forced to carry out constant redeployment of combat personnel, build defensive structures in different directions at the same time, etc. In such a situation of uncertainty and tension, the Russian command may miss the main blow, when and where it will be least expected.

The situation around the grain deal.

Deputy Minister of Ukraine for Seaports and Navigation Yuriy Vaskov said that the " grain deal" is in critical condition due to the actions of the Russian Federation. Kyiv urgently raised the issue of violation of the Russian Federation before the UN and Turkey.

Representatives of Russia, Turkey, and the UN inspect ships on their way to Ukrainian ports. The joint commission agrees on the names of the ships to be inspected. According to Yu. Vaskov, the Ukrainian side presented the names of three dry-cargo grain carriers per the agreement. But Russian officials crossed out the names and introduced other incoming ships from the current queue of 50. As a result, according to Vaskov, not a single ship was allowed to continue on its way, tantamount to a virtual blockade.

According to Yu. Vaskov, if the confrontation continues, world food prices are likely to rise by 15%. Ukrainian farmers will be forced to stock up on grain and face serious financial difficulties.

Russia puts forward its list of requirements for the extension of the grain deal. Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation D. Peskov said that the Russian part of the grain deal does not work, the prospects for its extension are negative.

Earlier, the Russian Federation officially put forward the conditions for the next extension of the "grain deal" for the period after May 18, 2023. The Russian Foreign Ministry has published a list of Russian requirements. One of the points is the restoration of the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. And:

- reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT;

- resumption of supplies of agricultural machinery, spare parts, and service;

- cancellation of restrictions on insurance and reinsurance of ships with Russian food and fertilizers, plus the lifting of the ban on the access of such ships to ports;

- unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies associated with the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.

In general, the extension of the "grain deal" in May remains in doubt. It seems that the Russian Federation intends to suspend the operation of the grain corridor and is conducting informational preparations for this public opinion at the international level. But in the end, the situation will largely depend on the position of China and Turkey on this issue - the main trading partners of the Russian Federation.

According to the UN at the end of February 2023. Since the start of the grain corridor, about 21.5 million tons of grain have been transported through it. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported more than 30 million tons of grain for the 2022-2023 season (not only along the grain corridor but in total). But approximately how much grain is still stored domestically. At the negotiations on the extension of the "grain deal", the Ukrainian side raises questions about expanding the list of ports involved in the deal (in particular, at the expense of the Mykolaiv port, as well as the export nomenclature).

 

 

Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics