On May 8, 2025, white smoke over the Sistine Chapel announced the election of the 268th Pope. After the death of Pope Francis, a conclave of cardinals met in the Vatican to choose his successor. The choice turned out to be historic: for the first time in the almost two-thousand-year history of the Catholic Church, a US citizen, Cardinal Robert Francis Prévost, ascended the throne of St. Peter, who took the name Leo XIV.
The election of the American Pope instantly received a political tinge in the media. There were interpretations that the 2025 conclave ended with a spiritual "victory" for conservative America. After the 2024 elections, when the Republican Party controls both Congress and the White House, some observers regarded the election of a cardinal from the United States as a continuation of this trend to strengthen the right.
The appearance of the American Pope gave rise to conspiracy theories: did Leo XIV become Trump's conditional "steelmaker"? After all, Trump, by his own admission, "would not mind becoming the Pope himself if he were not President." Recall that Donald Trump recently jokingly stated that "he would be a good Pope." Now, as ironic commentators note, Washington has nevertheless "received a cathedra" - albeit not in the White House, but in the Vatican. Maybe not Trump himself, but someone "from his own"? Some observers saw in the new Pope not only a spiritual leader, but also a symbol of a possible ideological turn of the entire Catholic Church. Like, now - and spiritual Rome will speak with the "voice of America".
However, did the Vatican really make a "gift" to the Republicans?
On the first day after the election of Leo XIV, the US White House did not hide its joy. Despite the fact that back in 2024, then-Cardinal Prévost criticized Donald Trump's migration policy and the rhetoric of Vice President J.D. Vance, already on the day of the conclave, all the key figures of the administration rushed to congratulate the new pontiff.
Official Washington reacted promptly and warmly to the election of Pope Leo XIV. President Donald Trump congratulated the new pontiff just hours after the "Habemus Papam". In his post (on the Truth Social platform), he wrote: "Congratulations to Cardinal Robert Francis Prévost, who has just become Pope. How honorable it is to know that he is the first American Pope. What a joy and what an honor for our country! I am looking forward to meeting Pope Leo XIV – it will be a very significant moment!"Trump also told reporters in the Oval Office that the news of the American Pope was a surprise but very gratifying. According to him, "it is a great honor" for the United States to have its native on the Holy See.
It is too early to judge whether these were sincere congratulations or a diplomatic reflex. But the public signals were quite warm.
Senior officials joined in the congratulations:
- Vice President J.D. Vance, now the highest-ranking Catholic in the administration, issued a statement that "millions of American Catholics and other Christians are praying for the successful ministry of the new Pope," invoking God's blessing on Leo XIV. Vance is wrong – Jesus is not asking us to rank our love for our neighbors." Now, Vance is publicly expressing support for the pope, a clear sign of smoothing over contradictions for the sake of diplomacy.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the election of the American pope historic and promised to strengthen US relations with the Vatican. The US Embassy to the Holy See also distributed a congratulatory message on behalf of the government.
- Representatives of the Democratic Party did not stand aside: New York Governor Kathy Hokul and other Democratic politicians noted that they would pray for the new pontiff and hope for his leadership in the spirit of "compassion and dignity" for all people.
Recall that earlier under Pope Francis, relations were strained: Francis criticized Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric (calling the idea of a border wall "un-Christian"), to which Trump referred to the pontiff as a "very political person." . Now the administration is emphasizing the positive: the historical nature of the event outweighs previous differences. Trump emphasized national pride in the American pope, keeping silent about the fact that the pope criticized his policies. White House officials cheered the news of the choice of Leo XIV when it appeared on the screens. At the same time, the official representative did not comment on Prévost's old tweets criticizing the administration – Washington is clearly preferred to leave disputes in the past and show unity with the new leader of the Catholic Church.
Connections between the Catholic and political elites of the United States:
There are now several influential Catholics in the Trump administration. Vice President J.D. Vance is a Catholic convert and an active right-wing politician; Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a conservative Catholic of Cuban origin. Both parties in the United States traditionally have strong Catholic factions: for example, the majority of Supreme Court justices are Catholics. Therefore, contacts between Washington and the Vatican are close, regardless of the president's party affiliation. The media note that Prévost has worked in Latin America for a long time and is close in spirit to Pope Francis. This means that his election is not a direct "bet" of the Republicans. Rather, he was a compromise figure. Nevertheless, conservatives welcome those aspects of Leo XIV's views that coincide with their agenda (against abortion, against same-sex marriage, for traditional families). Senator Rubio has already stated that the United States hopes to "deepen a special relationship with the Holy See" under the first American pope. The Republican faction in Congress also officially congratulated, wishing the pontiff God's blessing with a historical event.
For more liberal circles, the election of Leo XIV is not so much a victory for Trump as a step towards continuing Francis' course towards the global social mission of the church. Thus, Democrat Joaquin Castro noted the symbolism that the new pope follows "the testament of the late Francis – to bring light instead of darkness, to be kind to one's neighbor and to unite people.". That is, in the left-liberal interpretation, the emphasis is not on the nationality of the pontiff, but on his spiritual qualities. Many remind us that Prévost is a disciple of Francis and an Augustinian who devoted his life to the poor, not to political games. Consequently, his election cannot be considered a direct "spiritual victory" of a particular party.
But some left-liberal conspiracy theorists fear that figures like Stephen Bannon (Trump's former strategist, a well-known critic of Francis) may be behind the American pope. Earlier it was reported that Bannon supported ultra-conservative Catholic cardinals, wanting a change of course for the Vatican.
Paradox: the displeasure of the extreme right. Interestingly, not everyone on the American right is happy with Leo XIV. Commentator Charlie Kirk was initially delighted to hear about the Republican primaries in his biography, but then called his tweets "not very good" and even suggested a conspiracy: "Maybe the American was chosen to promote the opening of borders under President Trump!".
Versions of the influence of the "deep state":
Activist Laura Loomer lashed out at the new pope, calling him "another Marxist puppet in the Vatican" and a "woke pope." She was outraged by Prévost's posts over the past years — praying for George Floyd, calling for the eradication of racism — she commented sarcastically: "What kind of prejudice? Is this not another way to spell an overdose of Fentanyl? Marxist dad!"Thus, some MAGA activists are disappointed, believing that the Vatican has once again deceived expectations and chose not an ultra-conservative, but a "hidden liberal."
Supporters of a more balanced approach, on the contrary, urge not to measure the pope by the standards of parties: "Trying to fit the pope's ideology into the context of American politics is futile," wrote right-wing publicist Ryan Girdusky, urging Catholics to simply pray that the new pontiff will become a good shepherdSome see the hand of God (or Trump) in the departure of the "liberals," while others see the accident of history. Vatican officials refute conspiracy theories, noting that the cardinals were guided by the inspiration of the Holy Spirit, not secular considerations.
As a result, the information field around Pope Leo XIV reflects a general polarization: a purely religious event instantly became part of the world "culture war". However, the real Pope Prévost in his first addresses does not speak of politics at all, but of "peace and dialogue without fear." He honored the memory of Francis and called on everyone to walk together on the Christian path of unity. Will the new pontiff be able to overcome divisions – both within the Church and between Church and States – and live up to the hopes that a variety of people on both sides of the ocean have placed in him.
It is worth noting that the Pope is not only the spiritual leader of the Catholic Church, but also the head of the independent state of the Vatican City. His influence is based both on billions of believers and on his unique diplomatic and moral role.
Here are the key indicators and aspects that characterize the scale of the Pope's power:
- Number of Catholics in the world: According to the Vatican, the Catholic Church has about 1.4 billion believers. It is the largest Christian denomination on the planet. (For comparison, in 2005 it was ~1.1 billion, which is a significant increase.) Independent estimates by Pew Research confirm these figures, noting that approximately 7% of all Catholics in the world live in the United States.
- Geographical distribution: The historical center of Catholicism, Europe, has long yielded the primacy in the number of believers to Latin America. Latin America is the stronghold of the world Catholic Church, about 40% of all Catholics live here. The largest Catholic countries are Brazil (~123 million believers) and Mexico (~100 million). The third largest Catholic flock is the Philippines (~85 million) in Asia. The United States (~69–75 million) ranks 4th, being the largest Catholic community in the developed world. The Catholic population in Africa is growing rapidly: for example, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo there are ~29 million Catholics, in Nigeria ~24 million. that the Pope has to take into account very different cultural and social contexts, from secular Europe to developing Africa.
- Economic Resources and Assets: The Pope disposes of substantial, though limited, financial resources. The budget of the Vatican (Holy See) is about $800-900 million a year, while in recent years it has been in deficit (the deficit was estimated at €33-83 million). However, the Holy See has large reserve funds and assets. The Vatican Bank (Institute for the Works of Religion) manages ~$5.6 billion in assets, and the Church Property Administration (APSA) manages investments of about $2.9 billion. It is important to note: the Pope directly controls only the Vatican's finances and central church structures. The finances of dioceses, orders, and Catholic universities are decentralized. Nevertheless, the Pope's authority allows him to direct the flow of donations to the global needs of the church and the poor (for example, through the Obol of St. Peter Foundation). In general, the Pope is the spiritual "steward" of the Church's gigantic material resources, but not the absolute owner of them; His power is more co-ordinating and moral than financial and executive.
- Diplomatic and political role: The Vatican maintains official diplomatic relations with 184 countries of the world (on a par with the major powers). The Holy See is a full-fledged subject of international law and has one of the most extensive diplomatic corps (nuncios – papal ambassadors – work in many countries on the world stage: his messages are heard from the rostrums of the UN, he participates in the settlement of conflicts (for example, mediation in the dialogue between the United States and Cuba in 2014 under Francis). Leo XIV, like his predecessors, will meet with the leaders of the powers, speak out about wars, ecology, poverty. World leaders are already reacting to his election: for example, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky noted the Vatican's principled position against aggression and expressed hope for the "continuation of moral support" from the Pope in Ukraine's pursuit of a just peace. This is indicative: even in geopolitical crises, the Pope's word is weighty, he is considered as a potential peacemaker Pope Francis has issued an encyclical on ecology, Laudato Si', becoming one of the moral leaders of the climate movement. Pope John Paul II played a role in the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, inspiring the Solidarity movement in Poland.
Thus, the current Leo XIV inherits a huge "soft" power based on the faith of billions and respect for states. He does not have an army or a coercive apparatus, but he has a unique "diplomacy of spirituality." The authority of the Catholic Church in the 21st century depends on how he disposes of it.
If we assume that the new pontiff will transmit ideas that are consonant with the US foreign policy course – especially in its Republican implementation – this may mean an increase in the cultural and civilizational influence of "Trump's America" through the Vatican.
The proclamations of the Pope ex cathedra – from the Latin "from the cathedra", i.e. on behalf of the full teaching of the Church – in the Roman Catholic tradition are considered infallible if they relate to issues of faith and morality. That is, with this choice, we have not just a spiritual leader, but also a figure with a colossal influence on the global ethical and even political agenda. That is why the election of the Pope is always both a religious and geopolitical act.
The main question remains: who is Pope Leo XIV? A new representative of spiritual conservatism? A quiet reformer in the spirit of Francis? A moderate counterbalance to ideological extremes? Or is it a symbol of the U.S. attempt to regain moral control over global ethics?
But let us repeat: this is only an assumption, a question that analysts, believers and diplomats ask themselves. In the meantime, everything is as it is said in the Gospel: "By their deeds you will know them" (Matthew 7:16, 7:20) Has the Vatican played someone else's game — or made everyone its own players?
Oksana Krasovska, expert-analyst at the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
References:
- Reuters
«Prevost surprises as first US pope, takes name Leo XIV», 8 мая 2025 г. - Associated Press (AP)
«Robert Prevost of the United States is named Pope Leo XIV», 8 мая 2025 г. - The Guardian
«New pope's brother says he is 'middle of the road' – as it happened», 8 мая 2025 г. - CBS News
«Pope Leo XIV honored by Trump: 'It is such an honor to realize that he is the first American Pope'», 8 мая 2025 г. - Vatican News
«Leo XIV is the new Pope», 8 мая 2025 г. - Pew Research Center
«The Global Catholic Population», 13 февраля 2013 г. - Reuters
«Pope Leo once leveled criticism at Trump and Vance. MAGA is not amused.», 9 мая 2025 г. - AP News
«New pope led Order of St. Augustine dedicated to the poor and service», 8 мая 2025 г. - Vatican News
«Biography of Pope Leo XIV, born Robert Francis Prevost», 8 мая 2025 г. - The Guardian
«What will the new Pope be like? He's chosen to be called Leo – that's no accident», 8 мая 2025 г. - AP News
«Prevost, now Pope Leo XIV, known as the 'saint of the north' in Peru for his closeness to poor», 8 мая 2025 г. - Vatican News
«Matteo Bruni: Pope Leo XIV's name choice highlights the Church's social doctrine», 8 мая 2025 г. - The Guardian
«Unearthed comments from new pope alarm LGBTQ+ Catholics», 9 мая 2025 г. - Reuters
«Pope Leo's in-tray: pontiff has many urgent issues to address», 6 мая 2025 г. - Pew Research Center
«10 facts about U.S. Catholics», 4 марта 2025 г.
