Analytical review of the week No. 141 of 28.11.2021.

Авторы публикации

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

22.11. - 28.11.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Press conference of V. Zelensky.

2. The Bureau of Economic Security has started working in Ukraine.

3. Continuation of "Wagnergate". New investigation from Radio Liberty.

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Protests in Turkey related to the fall of the Lyra exchange rate.

2. Completed the formation of the ruling coalition in Germany.

3. Preparation for negotiations between D. Biden and V. Putin.

4. The United States has invited representatives of Taiwan to participate in the Summit for Democracy.

ECONOMY.

1. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

2. The IMF has published a list of 12 requirements for Ukraine.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note the following:

First , a press conference by V. Zelensky took place this week. It became Bankova's reaction to the decline in presidential ratings and a number of media scandals, in which the first person has recently appeared. The President made it clear that any attempt to organize protests or continue an information attack on the authorities (whether by Rinat Akhmetov or someone else) will end in a sharp suppression and accusation of all those involved in treason / work for the Kremlin.

Secondly , a new investigation by the grant publication Radio Svoboda on the topic of Wagnergate indicates that Western partners continue to use this story to blackmail the current Ukrainian government.

Thirdly , the launch of the work of the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB) this week is one of the measures to ensure the current government's course towards total fiscalization. With the beginning of the functioning of the new body, one should expect an increase in the number of criminal cases related to non-payment of taxes, and the most severe sentences for them for ordinary citizens (entrepreneurs, individuals, etc.). At the same time, as the example of NABU, SAP, and other newly formed structures shows, there is no reason to expect a real investigation of crimes committed by high-ranking officials from the new body.

Fourth , the protests in Turkey that erupted this week are evidence of a deepening discrepancy between Ankara's active, offensive foreign policy and the deteriorating economic situation in the country. In the future, the development of this trend can lead to a partial curtailment of Turkey's foreign policy activity in certain regions (for example, in Libya, or Azerbaijan).

Fifth , another trend that has continued this week is the confrontation between the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Despite preparations for the next talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, relations between the two countries now resemble, rather, a tough confrontation than a constructive dialogue. The same applies to the relations of the United States with the PRC. Less than a week after talks with Xi Jingping to stabilize bilateral relations, the Joe Biden administration invited Taiwan officials to its summit for democracy, knowing full well what Beijing’s reaction would be. All this suggests that talk of a "detente" between China or Russia and the United States is clearly premature.

Sixth , sea coal supplies to Ukraine in 2021 account for only 6.6% of Ukrainian gas coal production by DTEK Energo in January-October 2021. In some areas of the Kherson region have already begun rolling blackouts and , as hospitals and other critical infrastructure running on generators. Until the end of 2021, Ukrnafta will be divided between NJSC Naftogaz and I. Kolomoisky so that the latter will receive the most profitable assets. Thus, the current government maintains good relations with the oligarch and prevents the formation of an oligarchic consensus, which is necessary for a potential change of president.

Seventh , the assumption by the Ukrainian government of the next obligations to the International Monetary Fund aggravates the dependence of the domestic banking system and the social protection system on Western creditors.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

V. Zelensky's press conference took place this week. It became Bankova's reaction to the decline in presidential ratings and a number of media scandals, in which the first person has recently appeared. The President made it clear that any attempt to organize protests or continue an information attack on the authorities (whether by Rinat Akhmetov or someone else) will end in a sharp suppression and accusation of all those involved in treason / work for the Kremlin.

A new investigation by the grant publication Radio Svoboda on the subject of Wagnergate indicates that Western partners continue to use this story to blackmail the current Ukrainian government.

The launch of the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB) this week is one of the measures to ensure the current government's course towards total fiscalization. With the beginning of the functioning of the new body, one should expect an increase in the number of criminal cases related to non-payment of taxes, and the most severe sentences for them for ordinary citizens (entrepreneurs, individuals, etc.). At the same time, as the example of NABU, SAP, and other newly formed structures shows, there is no reason to expect a real investigation of crimes committed by high-ranking officials from the new body.

1. Press conference of V. Zelensky.

On November 26, V. Zelensky held a press conference on the results of half of his tenure as head of state. The President spoke to journalists against the backdrop of a number of scandals related to Wagnergate, investigations about the birthday of the head of the OP A. Ermak, the likelihood of a Russian invasion, etc. The event was attended by 30 journalists from "leading all-Ukrainian and international media" at the choice of the President's Office [1] . There was no free application for accreditation.

V. Zelensky's press conference is Bankova's reaction to the crisis and a number of scandals involving the president recently. Its content can be divided into three main blocks.

The first block is a blank, which concerns R. Akhmetov. Accusing him of assisting or possibly preparing a coup d'etat on December 1-2. The President linked the story with an alleged audio recording of someone from R. Akhmetov's entourage with possible protests on December 1. Let's remind that on this day the protesters promised to come to Bankova Street if their demand for A. Yermak's resignation is not fulfilled. V. Zelensky himself is going to speak in parliament on this day. This message contains a warning to R. Akhmetov that the whole story of using his channels to form opposition to the president may end with an accusation of treason, detention and pogrom of the business empire.

The second set of questions was related to the main scandals involving the president. The answers to the questions did not cause much confidence, and the journalists were unhappy. "Warm bath" did not work not only with Yu. Butusov, S. Shuster and N. Vlaschenko, but also with many other journalists. Sharp questions and emotional answers were heard. Sometimes it turned into a full-fledged discussion and even an argument. There were questions about the Bellingcat investigation, about O. Tatarov, PrivatBank and Ukrnafta.

The third block of blanks concerned the issues of reforms, which are likely to become part of the next election campaign of Vladimir Zelensky.

In general, the president made it clear that any attempt to organize protests or continue an information attack on the authorities will end in sharp suppression , and the opponents will be accused of preparing a coup d'etat and working for Russia. V. Zelensky tried to accuse journalists. Despite the fact that in some places he seemed sincere, in most cases the president did not give direct and unambiguous answers to questions. V. Zelensky also spoke about the future, tried to demonstrate the points of his electoral program. One of them presupposes a refusal to switch to a parliamentary model of governance. In relations with Russia, V. Zelensky declared his readiness to build a dialogue, relying on the position of Western partners, which are pushing V. Zelensky to this. The president has, in fact, denied the risk of a Russian invasion, which has been covered in media coverage in recent weeks. According to him, the parliament will not pass the law on the transitional period, which was criticized by Russia and Western partners. The president also said that A. Yermak would call the Russian presidential administration to restore the dialogue.

2. The Bureau of Economic Security has started working in Ukraine.

This week, by order No. 1493 of November 24, the Cabinet of Ministers launched the work of the Bureau of Economic Security. Earlier, on May 12, the government adopted a draft resolution "On the formation of the Bureau of Economic Security" (BES).

The Bureau of Economic Security (BES) is now the only government agency responsible for combating economic crime. BEB receives the appropriate powers from the Security Service and the Tax Police[2] . The State Fiscal Service should also be liquidated from the day the government decides to establish the Bureau.

The creation of the Bureau of Economic Security (or a similar body) to replace the existing tax police was one of Ukraine's obligations to the IMF[3] . A new architecture of power structures is being created. (BEB), which will take part in ensuring the economic security of the state, a structure created on the model of NABU, only in the field of economics (work in the structure of foreign experts, council of integrity, etc.). At the same time, the Bureau of Economic Security takes away the powers to investigate economic crimes from all other law enforcement agencies (SBU, Ministry of Internal Affairs and the State Security Service), except for NABU (there remain those cases that relate to corruption).

In general, the launch of the BEB is one of the measures to ensure the current government's course towards total fiscalization.

3. Continuation of "Wagnergate". New investigation from Radio Liberty.

This week , Radio Svoboda published an investigation "Continuation of Wagnergate: How Ukrainian Intelligence Officers Preparing a Special Operation Have Their Passports Canceled"[4] . Journalists exposed the incompetence of the President's Office, which fired the intelligence officers preparing Operation Avenue. In essence, this investigation forms the opinion of “betrayal” on the part of the top leadership of Ukraine. Among other things, its authors claim that the Ukrainian authorities have invalidated the passports of five former intelligence officers who took part in the preparation of a special operation to detain the "Wagnerites". After checking the invalidation record, it was allegedly canceled, but they could not explain how it happened.

Let us remind you that in the investigation published a week ago, the Bellingcat edition did not find evidence that the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine called A. Lukashenko to warn about the arrival of the "Wagnerites" in the country. At the same time, the former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate V. Burba said that Andriy Yermak, on behalf of the head of state Volodymyr Zelensky, gave an order to postpone the special operation against the "Wagnerites". At his press conference, V. Zelensky said that V. Burba could embroil him with Turkish President Recep Erdogan and drag Kiev into a diplomatic scandal with Ankara[5] .

An investigation by the grant publication Radio Svoboda suggests that the topic of Wagnergate remains central for Western partners, who continue to use it to blackmail the Ukrainian authorities led by V. Zelensky.

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

This week, Razumkov Center[6] published a new sociological study, according to which Vladimir Zelensky is in the lead in the presidential rating. 25% of those who will take part in the elections are ready to vote for him . Compared to the last published poll by the Razumkov Center in October, the President's rating has not changed significantly (-1%).

This is followed by:

• P. Poroshenko - 17.5% (+ 3.5%).

• Y. Boyko - 11% (-1%).

• Y. Tymoshenko - 9%, (-1%).

• D. Razumkov - 7.5% (-1.5%).

The rating of the rest of the candidates is significantly lower and does not show any significant changes.

In case of electoral rivalry in the second round:

• in a pair V. Zelensky and P. Poroshenko wins V. Zelensky with a score of 54% and 46%, respectively.

• in a pair V. Zelensky and Y. Boyko wins V. Zelensky with a score of 66% and 34%, respectively.

• in a pair of V. Zelensky and D. Razumkov, the result is 50% to 50%, respectively.

More often citizens express confidence

• D. Razumkov (35% of respondents trust him, 51% do not),

• V. Zelenskiy (respectively 28% and 66%; balance (-38%),

Since August, the president has: confidence has decreased (-5%); distrust + 5%. The overall balance decreased by 10%.

Since August, D. Razumkov added (+ 3%) those who trust him; but mistrust also increased by 2%. General balance + 1%.

The results of the study showed a decrease in the balance of trust in the president by 10% compared to August. At the same time, D. Razumkov is now the leader of trust . In the event of an electoral rivalry with him, V. Zelensky does not receive an obvious advantage - the votes are divided equally. There is an increase in the ratings of P. Poroshenko and European Solidarity + 3%.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

The protests in Turkey, which erupted this week, are evidence of a deepening mismatch between Ankara's active, offensive foreign policy and the country's deteriorating economic situation. In the future, the development of this trend can lead to a partial curtailment of Turkey's foreign policy activity in certain regions (for example, in Libya, or Azerbaijan).

Another trend that continued this week is the confrontation between the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Despite preparations for the next talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, relations between the two countries now resemble, rather, a tough confrontation than a constructive dialogue. The same applies to the relations of the United States with the PRC. Less than a week after talks with Xi Jingping to stabilize bilateral relations, the Joe Biden administration invited Taiwan officials to its summit for democracy, knowing full well what Beijing’s reaction would be. All this suggests that talk of a "detente" between China or Russia and the United States is clearly premature.

1. Protests in Turkey related to the fall of the Lyra exchange rate.

This week, social problems began in Turkey, caused by an imbalance between a weakening economy and a proactive foreign policy.

Protests took place in Ankara and Istanbul after a record drop in the lira against the dollar. Demonstrators demanded the resignation of the government and members of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

The protests began on Tuesday evening and took place in different districts of the capital and Istanbul. In Ankara, the police tried to interfere with the demonstrators, including with barriers. The participants dispersed to nearby lanes, but then they gathered again in the procession.[7] .

In Istanbul, residents also demonstrated in front of the Central Bank building. Some held a placard that read: "You have done your job badly, you will be judged, let the government resign."

Members of the Confederation of Progressive Trade Unions of Turkey took part in a rally last week due to deteriorating economic conditions in Izmir. They protested against the high cost of living, inflation and low wages.

The representative of the regional office of the organization Memish Sary pointed to the increase in poverty and unemployment in Turkey, as well as unfairly high taxes.

During this year, the Turkish lira has performed the worst among emerging market currencies. According to the agency's estimates, its value has fallen by almost 40% since the beginning of the year, with a drop of almost 20% recorded over the past week. Inflation in Turkey is four times the target.

On Monday, November 22, the Turkish currency for the first time began to cost more than 12 lira per dollar, and on Tuesday - more than 13 lira.

It was this circumstance that became the trigger for the start of the protest actions.

The root cause of what is happening in Turkey is the mismatch between its active, aggressive foreign policy and its economic situation. The pandemic that began in 2020 hit the country's economy hard, due to a decrease in the flow of tourists.

In addition, military adventures abroad require serious financial investments. In the last 2 years alone, Turkey (directly or covertly) took part in three local conflicts, namely in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

A huge problem and a destabilizing factor for Turkey is the Syrian province of Idlib, located on its southern border. We will remind, in this region gathered representatives of the so-called "democratic opposition", but in fact - scattered terrorist groups fighting against the Syrian government. Some of them are oriented towards Turkey. Ankara has to spend a lot of money to maintain at least some order in this terrorist domain, because otherwise, the Syrian government troops will occupy Idlib and the crowds of militants will have no choice but to move to the territory of neighboring Turkey.

In general, foreign policy adventures led to great economic problems for Ankara. And these economic problems, in turn, led to an increase in protest sentiments.

Of course, this does not mean that Erdogan will not stay in power. He and his coalition allies from among the Turkic nationalists have sufficient political support and resources to "wait out" the protests, or, if absolutely necessary, to suppress them.

But economic problems are much more difficult to deal with than protests. The need to stabilize the economic situation, in the foreseeable future, may lead to the curtailment of Turkish military-political adventures abroad.

2. Completed the formation of the ruling coalition in Germany.

This week, the victorious German parties in the September elections to the Bundestag completed negotiations on the creation of a ruling coalition. On Wednesday, November 24, a coalition agreement was presented - an action program for the future government of Germany.

If there are no surprises at the finish line, then even before Christmas Angela Merkel will cease to act as German Chancellor. And although the names of candidates for the posts of ministers in the new government have not yet been officially announced, the names of the likely owners of the respective posts are already circulating in the press.[8] .

The new government of the FRG will be special because it is being created by three parties that previously did not join the coalition at the federal level in this composition: the Social Democrats who won the elections, the Soyuz-90 / Greens party and the liberals (Free Democratic Party, FDP For the first time, men and women should enter the Cabinet of Ministers of the Federal Republic of Germany in equal proportions, as set by the future chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany, Social Democrat Olaf Scholz.

Scholz, now Acting Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister, is one of the few members of the outgoing cabinet who will move to the new German government. It is believed that only one politician will sit in his place - acting. Minister of Labor, Social Democrat Hubertus Heil.

Also in the new cabinet, but to new posts, two other representatives of the SPD should move from the old government - acting. Minister of the Environment and Nuclear Safety Svenja Schulze and acting Head of the Ministry of Justice Christine Lambrecht. Schulze is predicted to be the head of the revived Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, and Lambrecht - the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany.

Most often, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs became the Vice-Chancellor. This position, judging by the information of the newspaper Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger, will be given to the co-chairman of the Green Party, Annalena Berbock. This, by the way, will be the first woman in the history of German politics in this post.

During the election campaign, Berbock repeatedly reiterated her tough stance towards Russia, and recently expressed her solidarity with the Memorial organization, which the Russian authorities want to liquidate. She is also known for opposing the Nord Stream 2 project and recently urged not to issue a license to operate it.

However, it is more likely that not she, but another co-chairman of the Green Party, Robert Habek, will become Scholz's deputy. Habek is promised the post of "super minister": he should head the Ministry of Economy, which, however, will be strengthened - climate protection will also fall into his sphere of authority. as well as issues of transition to renewable energy sources.

The distribution of government posts between the coalition partners in the German press is called generally balanced, noting that each of the partners has achieved its own in the negotiations. The SPD, according to the plans of the future coalition cabinet, will get seven ministries in the new government, the "greens" - five, the liberals - four, which roughly corresponds to the share of votes cast for each of the parties.

The “greens”, having ceded the post of finance minister, will receive, as expected, the federal environmental department - the name of the still little-known Steffi Lemke appears in unofficial lists as its head, the Ministry of Agriculture - Anton Hofreiter is tipped to replace its head, and the family ministry, which may be headed by Katrin Göring-Eckardt. Hofreiter and Göring-Eckardt are co-chairs of the Green faction in the Bundestag.

Liberals will receive not only a key financial department, but also send their representatives to lead the Ministry of Transport and Justice, as well as the Ministry of Education, which is predicted by Bettina Stark-Watzinger.

Speaking about the foreign policy course of the future German government, it should be noted that despite the differences in partisanship with the government of Angela Merkel, it is unlikely to change much. Unexpected surprises can be presented, perhaps, by Annalena Berbock as Minister of Foreign Affairs. However, it should be understood that in the German political system, the foreign minister is traditionally not an independent figure. Consequently, Berbock's actions and statements in this post will be determined not by her extravagant political views, but by the coordinated policy of the entire cabinet.

3. Preparation for negotiations between D. Biden and V. Putin.

Preparations for the next talks between the Russian and American presidents continue. According to media reports, they may pass before the end of this year.[9] .

The exact date of Vladimir Putin's conversation with Joe Biden has not yet been announced. But, according to some reports, it may take place in December in video format, and next year the leaders will again hold a face-to-face meeting (recall, the first time they met on June 16 in Geneva). The preparation for it was recently confirmed by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that at the meeting, "undoubtedly, one way or another, the Ukrainian theme will arise." There are a lot of controversies around Ukraine now, and one cannot do without discussing it, said the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov. In particular, he recalled the quote: "provocative actions of NATO forces near our borders, which cannot leave us indifferent."

Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev also noted that new talks between Putin and Biden could take place this year. “Themes will be agreed. Contacts, I think, will not be delayed, ”he replied on the air of Channel One.

Preparations for negotiations between the Russian and American leaders are taking place in a tense atmosphere. For three weeks now, the American side has continued to whip up information hysteria about the alleged concentration of Russian troops near the eastern borders of Ukraine.

In the past week, this hysteria has reached its climax.

On November 24, the Embassy of the United States of America issued a recommendation to American citizens in view of the accumulation of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border.

This is stated in a warning on the website of the US Embassy in Ukraine.

In particular, US citizens are advised of reports of unusual Russian military activity near Ukraine's borders and in occupied Crimea. Quote:

"Do not travel to Crimea due to the abuse of Russian occupation power, to the eastern parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions due to the armed conflict, and throughout Ukraine due to COVID-19."

At the same time, the embassy reminds US citizens that "security conditions along the border may change with little or no notice."

Against the backdrop of media accusations of a concentration of troops near the border and intentions to invade Ukraine, Russia has also moved to more active actions on the diplomatic front.

So, last week, the Russian Foreign Ministry published the correspondence of the head of the department, Sergei Lavrov, with colleagues from Germany and France on negotiations regarding the situation in Donbass. The Russian Foreign Ministry explained this step by the fact that Russia's position on these negotiations is "subject to distortion."

France and Germany on Thursday accused Russia of violating diplomatic protocol after Moscow released their confidential correspondence in Ukraine. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine called Moscow's actions "finishing off the" Normandy format ".

Nevertheless, it follows from the correspondence published by the Russian diplomatic department that Moscow's position in the non-public part of the negotiations on a peaceful settlement in Donbass is similar to what Russian officials are voicing publicly. It consists in the fact that in order to continue negotiations in the "Normandy format", it is first necessary to fulfill the Paris agreements of December 2019.

Ukraine, in turn, does not want to return to their implementation and is trying to achieve a new meeting, in which Germany and France are helping it, "tactfully not noticing" the obligations undertaken by Kiev during the last summit in the "Normandy format".

Probably, it is the final impasse of the negotiations on a peaceful settlement in Donbass that is the reason why the Russian side is going to raise the topic of Ukraine in the negotiations between Putin and Biden. Moscow believes that there is nothing to talk about with the governments dependent on Washington in Europe, since they are not independent in their policies. But in the negotiations with the United States, in the opinion of the Russian side, it is possible at least to designate "red lines".

4. The United States has invited representatives of Taiwan to participate in the Summit for Democracy.

Less than a week after Joe Biden's talks with Xi Jingping, the Biden administration invited Taiwan to its Summit for Democracy next month.[10] . After checking the list of participants released on Tuesday, China called the move "a mistake."

The first-of-its-kind meeting is a test of President Joe Biden's thesis, announced in his first foreign policy address in February, that he will return the United States to global leadership to counter authoritarian forces led by China and Russia.

The State Department's list of invitees to this virtual event on December 9 and 10, which aims to help stem the decline of democracy and the erosion of rights and freedoms around the world, has 110 participants. Of course, this does not include China and Russia.

On Wednesday, the China Office of Taiwan Affairs called Taiwan's inclusion in the US initiative "a mistake," saying Beijing opposed "any formal interaction between the US and China's Taiwan region."

“This position is clear and consistent. We urge the United States to adhere to the “one China” principle and three joint communiqués, ”spokesman Zhu Fenglian said at a press conference.

However, the fact that the Americans continued to flirt with Taiwan, drawing it into various anti-Chinese initiatives, was quite predictable. Even on the eve of the last talks between Biden and Xi, we wrote that the intentions of the American side are far from trying to return to constructive relations with Beijing. In this regard, we can only expect further escalation between the United States and China.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

Marine coal supplies to Ukraine in 2021 account for only 6.6% of Ukrainian gas coal production by DTEK Energo in January-October 2021. In some areas of the Kherson region have already begun rolling blackouts and , as hospitals and other critical infrastructure running on generators. Until the end of 2021, Ukrnafta will be divided between NJSC Naftogaz and I. Kolomoisky so that the latter will receive the most profitable assets. Thus, the current government maintains good relations with the oligarch and prevents the formation of an oligarchic consensus, which is necessary for a potential change of president.

By providing loans to Ukraine, the IMF is strengthening its control over the country in the following aspects: conducting a tax amnesty, financial monitoring, budget deficits, changes in tax legislation, rotation of the supervisory boards of state banks, the quality of the fight against coronavirus (and hence the procurement of vaccines), investigation of the causes Bankruptcy of 2014-2016, strengthening of NBU banking supervision, full or partial privatization of PrivatBank and Oschadbank, return of assets withdrawn from bankrupt banks, improvement of the procedure for selecting the head of SAP, changes in anti-corruption legislation in order to strengthen the independence of SAP and establish a mechanism for accountability of its leaders , the corporatization of the state-owned Energoatom, the appearance of a supervisory board, the majority of whose members should be independent and elected through transparent procedures, the release of gas prices for the population, that is, the removal of any regulation of gas prices for the population and I.

1. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

On November 21, the first ship with American coal entered the port of Odessa and began unloading[11] . Its holds contained 60.5 thousand tons of coal - the first batch for DTEK. In the near future, it is planned to unload two vessels “JOHNY CASH” (73 thousand tons of coal) and “SAPHIRA” (77.5 thousand tons of coal). To date, DTEK has agreed with international suppliers to import 7 shiploads of coal into Ukraine. Of these, 5 coal supplies from the United States and 2 supplies - from Colombia. The total volume of contractual supplies envisaged to cover the needs of Ukrainian thermal power plants is almost 470 thousand tons. By the way, in October, 50 thousand tons of Centrenergo and Donbassenergo coal were urgently shipped from mines in Ukraine. DTEK also reported on coal purchases in Poland and Kazakhstan. The total volume of coal purchases this fall for the needs of thermal power plants amounted to 0.9 million tons.

On November 21, the Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal, in an interview with Radio Liberty, said that coal from Kazakhstan, the transit of which was allegedly blocked by Russia, should be delivered to Ukraine by sea transport through the Russian port of Taman[12] . On November 16, the Ukrainian joint-stock company "Centrenergo" announced that 663 thousand tons of coal would be delivered to Ukraine.

Offshore supplies of coal account for only 6.6 percent of the production of Ukrainian G grade coal (gas) by DTEK Energo in January-October 2021.

On November 22, Odessa Mayor Gennady Trukhanov warned city residents about the risk of rolling blackouts[13] .

November 23 Deputy Chairman of the Kherson regional council Egor Ustinov said that in some areas of the Kherson region have already begun rolling blackouts and , as hospitals and other critical infrastructure running on generators[14] .

On November 23, the Zerkalo Nedeli edition published a material on the future division of Ukrnafta by the end of 2021 between NJSC Naftogaz and I. Kolomoisky[15] . Naftogaz will get four out of six oil and gas production departments, however, we are talking about all developed and unpromising Western Ukrainian fields (Ukrnafta-Zapad) and the gas Poltavanaftogaz, and Privatovtsy will have two, but the most promising are Akhtyrkanaftogaz Chernigovnaftogaz ".

On November 26, during a press marathon, President V. Zelensky said that Russia had refused to increase gas transit through Ukrainian territory.[16] .

According to the IMF, Ukraine's profit from the transit of Russian gas after the launch of Nord Stream 2 will decrease from $ 2.5 billion to $ 1.2 billion, that is, more than 2 times[17] .

2. The IMF has published a list of 12 requirements for Ukraine .

On November 24, on his Facebook page, the head of the National Bank Kirill Shevchenko said that Ukraine received the second tranche of $ 700 million in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund[18] .

NBU, within the framework of the signed memorandum with the IMF, will prepare a report on the quality of the tax amnesty and financial monitoring[19] . Ukraine has promised the IMF not to introduce a tax on withdrawn capital[20] . One of the structural beacons of Ukraine's memorandum with the IMF is the completion by the end of November of the process of selecting and appointing the head of the SAP and ensuring his autonomy. The IMF for the second time in the fall has worsened the forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2021 - from 3.5% to 3.2%[21] .

By the end of November 2021, Ukraine must fulfill several IMF requirements at once.

First, to approve the budget for 2022, in which the deficit would not exceed 3.5% of GDP, or about 188 billion hryvnia[22] . The Verkhovna Rada plans to begin consideration of the budget next week, which begins on November 30, so the chance for the timely fulfillment of this condition is rather illusory. Moreover, the budget must take into account all potential changes in tax legislation, in particular, bill 5600, the adoption of which in the second reading has been postponed several times.

Secondly, to approve the plan for the transfer of powers from the old members of the supervisory boards of state banks to the new ones. The current members of the supervisory boards will expire in the spring of 2022, so it is important for the IMF that they have time to transfer powers and the succession remains in the supervisory boards. New members of the supervisory boards must be selected according to a complete procedure, which includes all the necessary competitions. At the same time, by the end of December 2021, Ukraine has pledged to publish a full audit of last year's Coronavirus Fight Fund. Until now, the State Audit Service has not done this. At the request of the electronic signature, the service disclosed only part of the audit.

In addition, the new memorandum reflects the consequences of the "bankruptcy" of 2014-2016 - by the end of December 2021, the Office of the Attorney General is to publish an interim report on investigations into bankruptcy. Such reports should become regular and published every six months. They should contain, in particular, data on the state of criminal proceedings against former owners, managers and persons associated with them. It should also contain information on the number of persons under investigation, convicted persons and the amount of funds that the state was able to collect. Also, the new memorandum found a place for high-profile resignations from the departments of the National Bank. By the end of the year, the NBU must approve an action plan to improve the professional competence of departments responsible for banking supervision. This plan must be agreed with the IMF.

By the end of January 2022, the Cabinet of Ministers pledged to develop and approve a roadmap for the full or partial privatization of PrivatBank and Oschadbank, in particular, their sale to international investors with an impeccable reputation. By the end of February, Ukraine must agree and publish a plan for the return of assets withdrawn from bankrupt banks - some work is already underway in this direction: this year a working group was created, which included representatives of the NBU, the Fund for Guaranteeing Deposits of Individuals, the government and law enforcement agencies. So far, the result of her work has been the claims of the FGVFL against the ex-owners of bankrupt banks abroad.

In addition, by the end of March 2022, Ukraine has pledged to improve the selection procedure for the head of the SAP, who cannot be appointed from 2020. Also, the Council should adopt amendments to anti-corruption legislation in order to strengthen the independence of the SAP and establish a mechanism of accountability of its leaders. In the energy sector, Ukraine has pledged to introduce a base of natural gas consumers available to all gas suppliers. This step should increase competition in the gas market and simplify the process of changing the gas supplier. This condition must be met by the end of March 2022. By the end of May, the government must corporatize the state-owned Energoatom. In particular, the company should have a supervisory board, the majority of whose members should be independent. They will be selected through transparent procedures.

The text of the IMF memorandum contains the following thought: “The sharp slowdown in gas price inflation in recent months can be explained by the disappearance of the base effect and the introduction of annual contracts with a fixed price for gas supplies to the population[23] . " That is, according to this logic, annual contracts with a fixed price for the supply of gas to the population should be perceived as a positive phenomenon. On November 24, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine published a letter of intent to the IMF dated November 8, 2021[24] . The Ukrainian side expressed its readiness to comply with the IMF requirements without increasing the deficit in 2021, given the projected excess of the level of additional revenues, including rent for gas pegged to the prices of imported gas. The Ukrainian side promised the IMF “not to impose any price cap on gas supplied to households, and also to ensure that wholesale prices are determined in a transparent and efficient market.[25] . ”

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://nv.ua/ukraine/politics/press-konferenciya-zelenskogo-2021-gde-smotret-press-marafon-zelenskogo-onlayn-translyaciya-50198345.html

[2] https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/11/25/680122/

[3] https://minfin.com.ua/2021/11/25/76084378/

[4] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/vahnerheyt-ukrayinski-rozvidnyky-zaborona-vyyizd-zakordon/31578753.html

[5] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/11/26/7315333/