Analytical review of the week №135 from 17.10.2021.

Авторы публикации

Красовська Оксана Володимирівна

Андрей Тимченко

Аналитический обзор недели №135 от 17.10.2021г.

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

11.10.- 17.10.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Law No. 5599 on oligarchs has been submitted for signature.

2. The situation with COVID-19 in Ukraine.

3. There was a new investigation by the Schemes about "how Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from Kurchenko's bank."

4. March of nationalists in Kiev in honor of the UPA on October 14.

5. Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the OPFL party, has once again been placed under house arrest. Results of the NSDC meeting.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. The decision of the Constitutional Court of Poland on the priority of national law over European.

2. The 23rd Ukraine-EU Summit was held in Kiev.

3. Victoria Nuland's visit to Moscow and Dmitry Medvedev's article on the Ukrainian government.

4. Futurological article by Vladislav Surkov.

ECONOMY.

1. The Rada wants to ban private companies from selling gas at market prices .

2. The risk of an energy crisis in Ukraine on the eve of the start of the heating season.

3. PrivatBank has limited the frequency of operations with bank cards.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First , in domestic politics, the trend of “tightening the screws” remains unchanged, aimed at strengthening the power of the president's team and suppressing the main political and economic competitors. The law on de-oligarchization, contrary to all the norms and rules of the current legislation, is trying to be submitted for signature to the speaker and the president exactly in the version that is necessary for the President's Office, when the person controlled by the Bank NSDC will be included in the register of oligarchs. Within the framework of the same trend, Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the political council of the OPLZ party , was once again placed under house arrest . According to the results of the NSDC meeting, it became known that ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko also appears in the criminal case against him, but he has not yet been charged.

Secondly , the information campaign continues, which is being launched against V. Zelensky by Western partners dissatisfied with his policies and sabotage of reforms. The grant publication Scheme published a new damaging investigation "How Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from Kurchenko's bank."

Thirdly , the confrontation between Warsaw and Brussels continues within the framework of the European Union. This week, it was expressed in the recognition by the Constitutional Court of Poland of the supremacy of national laws over EU law. The European bureaucracy is outraged by this decision. Brussels understands that if other countries of the union follow the example of Poland, European officials will very soon lose power. In this regard, one should expect new threats to Warsaw from the European bureaucracy, which will relate to the freezing of financial aid and cheap loans worth many billions of euros.

Fourth , the results of the Ukraine-EU summit held in Kiev once again confirmed the conclusion that Ukraine is interested in the European Union, first of all, as a market for goods and services, as well as a source of cheap raw materials. The conclusion of the open skies agreement and the lifting of the moratorium on the export of round timber from our country fully confirm this thesis.

Fifth , another foreign policy trend of the outgoing week, which will continue in the future, is the reluctance of the Russian elite to conduct any negotiations with the Ukrainian authorities due to the latter's “incapacity to negotiate”. Moscow wants to discuss the "Ukrainian question" exclusively with Washington, and we saw the first rounds of such discussions this week during Victoria Nuland's visit to the Russian capital.

Sixth , certain regions of Ukraine are under a direct threat of disruption of the heating season 2021/22, but not because of the physical lack of gas, but because of the refusal of suppliers to supply fuel at the old price fixed in the relevant contracts. Private business, without hesitation, is trying to cash in on the sharply increased gas prices against the background of high demand in the European market. Local authorities have no choice but to declare an emergency in the energy sector. The memorandum, signed by the OP, the Cabinet of Ministers and Naftogaz, on limiting the growth in the price of blue fuel, has loopholes that gas suppliers use and extort more money from local authorities, despite the prices fixed in the existing contracts.

Seventh , the authorities, represented by the nationalized Privatbank, continue their course towards total fiscalization, this time limiting the maximum number of card-to-card transactions within Ukraine to 100 transactions per month. Thus, the authorities are trying to bring about 70 billion hryvnias (or almost 3 billion dollars) out of the shadows. However, in reality, these measures can only lead to an even greater departure of mutual settlements into the shadows.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

In domestic politics, the “tightening the screws” trend remains unchanged, aimed at strengthening the power of the president's team and suppressing the main political and economic competitors. The law on de-oligarchization, contrary to all the norms and rules of the current legislation, is trying to be submitted for signature to the speaker and the president exactly in the version that is necessary for the President's Office, when the person controlled by the Bank NSDC will be included in the register of oligarchs.

Within the framework of the same trend, Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the political council of the OPLZ party , was once again placed under house arrest . As a result of the NSDC meeting, it became known that ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko also appears in the criminal case against him, but he has not yet been charged.

An information campaign continues, which is being unfolded against V. Zelensky by Western partners dissatisfied with his policies and sabotage of reforms. The grant publication Schema published a new discrediting investigation "How Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from Kurchenko's bank."

1. Law No. 5599 on oligarchs has been submitted for signature.

This week, a committee of the Verkhovna Rada submitted for signature the bill # 5599 on oligarchs. This was announced by the chairman of the "Golos" faction Yaroslav Zheleznyak[1] . He also added that allegedly all errors and inaccuracies made during the voting for the draft law were corrected "in some miraculous way in the committee itself ." That is, a text was submitted for signature that does not correspond to the one voted.

Yaroslav Zheleznyak also noted that there is another intrigue about who will sign the law. " And who should sign? After all, at the time of voting No. 5599, the head of the Rada was Dmitry Razumkov. The law does not give anything else. And the decision of the KSU says that the speaker, who was at that time, signed the laws . But since the text was corrected in an armored way, I think that they will close their eyes to this norm and, in spite of everything, will give the new speaker to sign it , "the people's deputy concludes.

It is obvious that the law on de-oligarchization, contrary to all the norms and rules of the current legislation, is trying to be carried out exactly in the version that is necessary for the Office of the President, when a person controlled by the Bank NSDC will be included in the register of oligarchs. Therefore, we can assume that Y. Zheleznyak's predictions will come true. The law that does not correspond to the voted law will be submitted for signature to the new chairman of parliament R. Stefanchuk, and he will sign it.

As we wrote earlier, the law on de-oligarchization continues the trend of the authorities to “tighten the screws” - the suppression of the main political and economic competitors. In essence, it is a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team.

2. The situation with COVID-19 in Ukraine.

The situation with the coronavirus in Ukraine has deteriorated significantly. The average daily incidence this week was 13,175 people per day, nearly double the number two weeks ago and five times the number a month ago.[2] . On October 14, 13,624 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were recorded in Ukraine (of which 1177 children, 170 medical workers). The average weekly number of new deaths is 264 per day, which is 2.3 times more than 2 weeks ago. The number of active infections has also more than doubled in two weeks and is 205,144. The number of new hospitalized in two weeks has grown by 72% and averages 3293 people per day. A threatening situation in terms of the availability of equipped beds in hospitals and mortality rates in Zaporozhye, Odessa, Lugansk, Chernivtsi, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv regions. In some regions, the number of occupied beds has already exceeded the highs of both previous waves. Since October 15, the "red" zone of adaptive quarantine has already been operating in the Kherson region.

The number of occupied beds approached 30 thousand, which is more than last year's maximum and is about 60% of the current maximum. At the same time, the number of patients who need oxygen exceeded last year's maximum by 1.8 times and reached 70% of the current maximum, although two weeks ago they were only 42% of the current maximum. The incidence among children is the highest for the entire pandemic, and the intensity of their hospitalization is approaching absolute maximums.

According to forecasts of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine[3] , from 20 to 26 October, the average number of new cases of COVID-19 per day can range from 18,640 to 20,922.

The Ministry of Health of Ukraine reports that by the end of 2021 they plan to vaccinate against COVID-19 - 70% of the adult population. For this, various levers of influence will be involved, from coercion to encouragement. According to the order of the Ministry of Health of October 7, representatives of certain professions are required to undergo a full course of vaccinations [4] . One month is given to execute the order. Workers who fail to vaccinate during this period will be suspended from work without pay.

According to Our World in Data website[5] Ukraine is among the countries that will not be able to vaccinate 40% of their population by the end of 2021 . Among them are also: Georgia, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, most African countries.

Now in Ukraine 18% of the population is vaccinated. 14.7% with two and 3.3% with one dose. Ukraine is only on the 187th place in the world in terms of the number of vaccinations made per 100 people with an indicator of 32.57. Between Botswana (32.7) and Algeria (31.56). This indicator can be more than 100, depending on how many vaccinations are made per person. For comparison, Gibraltar and Cuba, where 100% of vaccinations are completed, have rates of 240 and 206 per 100 people, respectively.

Above Ukraine in the list of Our World in Data were: Russia 151st place 65.3 per 100 people. Georgia 167 place 47, 7 per 100 people. Belarus -177th place with an indicator of 40.9 per 100 people. And even Zimbabwe - 181 places 37.4 per 100 people.

3. There was a new investigation by the Schemes about "how Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from Kurchenko's bank."

This week, the authors of the "Schema" program published an investigation entitled: "Zelensky, Shefir and Kurchenko Bank." We are talking about a period of time even before V. Zelensky became president, and S. Shefir - his first assistant. The story is that in 2014, after the bankruptcy of Brokbusinessbank (at that time it belonged to the oligarch from V. Yanukovych's entourage, Sergei Kurchenko), V. Zelensky and S. Shefir signed a number of agreements with companies that had loans from the bank - on the assignment of the right to claim on their deposits. Such agreements were supposed to help Zelensky and Shefir get their deposits bypassing the legal procedure. In particular, V. Zelensky had a deposit in Brokbusinessbank for more than $ 300 thousand, S. Shefir - for more than $ 400 thousand. In 2014, the financial institution went bankrupt, which made it impossible for depositors to receive all their savings, since the compensation for the deposit is limited to 200 thousand hryvnia [6] .

In the end, the Supreme Economic Court ruled that these agreements were not in accordance with the law.

The fact that another investigation discrediting V. Zelensky and members of his team “pops up” in the media affiliated with foreign investors testifies to the continuation of the trend started by the “offshores” and “Wagnerites”. Part of a large information campaign that is being launched against V. Zelensky by Western partners dissatisfied with his policies and sabotage of reforms.

This week in Forbes magazine [7] once again reminded the President of Ukraine of all the scandals associated with him. The article of the publication says that V. Zelensky's ratings may sink even more due to revelations in the Pandora Dossier, persisting corruption, rising energy prices and an endless struggle with Russia. At the same time, the West is unlikely to bail out Ukraine with financial assistance and foreign investments. Probably, in the West, V. Zelensky is no longer viewed as a long-term political figure.

4. March of nationalists in Kiev in honor of the UPA on October 14.

On October 14 in Kiev, on the occasion of the Day of Defenders and Defenders of Ukraine, a march of nationalists took place. In addition to Svoboda, National Corps and Right Sector, representatives of Azov, Democratic Ax and other nationalist organizations, as well as supporters of the Belarusian non-systemic opposition joined the radicals' march.[8] .

Before the start of the march, the US Embassy in Kiev recommended that the Americans take precautions and stay away from the columns of nationalists.

The organizers expected to attract about 10 thousand people to the march. However, according to official figures, there were no more than 5 thousand on the march (and last year the National Police announced about six thousand participants). At the same time, eyewitnesses say that there were no more than 2-3 thousand people gathered. The demonstrators shouted slogans in support of ATO veterans, made anti-Semitic and Russophobic statements. The radicals did not hold a rally on Bankova Street under the President's Office, but instead burned an effigy on Khreshchatyk, which symbolized Vladimir Zelensky.

In general, it can be stated that the activity of nationalist groups has somewhat subsided in recent months. This is probably due to the fact that the current government often acts in the wake of nationalist sentiments. Despite the rhetoric of the nationalists directed against the team of V. Zelensky, they are in many ways even beneficial to the authorities. For example, such processions can be presented as a reason why it is impossible to fulfill the political part of the Minsk agreements.

5. Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the OPFL party, has once again been placed under house arrest. Results of the NSDC meeting.

This week, the Pechersk District Court placed the head of the political council of the OPSL Viktor Medvedchuk under house arrest. On October 11, law enforcement officers handed him an arrest petition with an alternative bail of UAH 1 billion. Earlier, on October 8, according to the materials of the SBU, a new suspicion was announced to the people's deputy - about high treason and assistance to the activities of a terrorist organization due to coal supplies from CADLO. On the same day, the head of the Security Service of Ukraine Ivan Bakanov said that law enforcement officers would check the involvement of the fifth president, Petro Poroshenko, and the ex-head of the National Bank, Valeria Gontareva, in the case of V. Medvedchuk.

As we wrote earlier, the case of V. Medvedchuk should be considered as the main instrument of Bankova's influence not only on himself, but also on P. Poroshenko, who now claims the same electoral field with V. Zelensky, and also, according to the OP, may be involved in the information incitement of the offshore scandal around V. Zelensky.

Following the meeting of the NSDC on October 15[9] , the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the SBU made a report on cases of treason. Since 2014, more than 1,600 cases have been opened with a similar storyline. At the same time, at least 411 suspects are hiding from the investigation. It was confirmed that ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko was involved in the criminal case brought against the head of the Opposition Platform - For Life Viktor Medvedchuk, but no charges were brought against him.

During his briefing, NSDC Secretary Aleksey Danilov said that ex-President Viktor Yanukovych is not the only representative of the leadership, in which a case on the fact of treason has been opened. This list of persons includes “ one more person who served as the President of Ukraine ”, as well as “the head of the National Bank ” (obviously, an allusion to P. Poroshenko and V. Gontareva).

In addition, the NSDC introduced a second package of sanctions against 237 persons who organized or took part in voting in elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the territory of Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions.[10] . For the first time in the history of Ukraine, a basic document was approved - the plan for the defense of Ukraine. Imposed sanctions against the Russian chain of stores MERE. Biosafety strategy approved. We reviewed the information security strategy. Probably, in the future, the authorities will push through the adoption of the law on media and clean up alternative sources of information.

A. Danilov also noted that in the decisions of the National Security and Defense Council, there was a mistake regarding 108 people, which has already been corrected, and 8 people who were involved in the preparation of these documents were punished. Behind the scenes, this may mean that in connection with certain agreements with the authorities, some of the individuals from the list can be exempted from sanctions.

The above events develop a trend towards “tightening the screws” in relation to the main competitors of the current government. The consolidation of political influence in the hands of Volodymyr Zelensky and his inner circle also continues. In particular, there is discrediting and pressure on the main leaders of both the nationalist and conditionally "pro-Russian" wing of the opposition.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

The confrontation between Warsaw and Brussels continues within the framework of the European Union. This week, it was expressed in the recognition by the Constitutional Court of Poland of the supremacy of national laws over EU law. The European bureaucracy is outraged by this decision. Brussels understands that if other countries of the union follow the example of Poland, European officials will very soon lose power. In this regard, one should expect new threats to Warsaw from the European bureaucracy, which will relate to the freezing of financial aid and cheap loans worth many billions of euros.

As a result of the Ukraine-EU summit held in Kiev, the conclusion was once again confirmed that Ukraine is of interest to the European Union, first of all, as a market for goods and services, as well as a source of cheap raw materials. The conclusion of the open skies agreement and the lifting of the moratorium on the export of round timber from our country fully confirm this thesis.

Another foreign policy trend of the outgoing week, which will continue in the future, is the reluctance of the Russian elite to conduct any kind of negotiations with the Ukrainian authorities due to the latter's “incapacity to negotiate”. Moscow wants to discuss the "Ukrainian question" exclusively with Washington, and we saw the first rounds of such discussions this week during Victoria Nuland's visit to the Russian capital.

1. The decision of the Constitutional Court of Poland on the priority of national law over European.

On October 7, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal found that several EU laws and some community court decisions contradict the country's fundamental law[11] .

This conclusion was reached by 12 out of 14 judges. Please note, the majority is absolute and almost unanimous!

The judges also announced that Poland's membership in the EU does not give the EU authorities supremacy in the judicial sphere and does not mean the transfer of Warsaw's sovereignty to the EU. The judges decided that no state instance of Poland would agree to the limitation of its powers by external force.[12] .

The tribunal concluded that the Constitution of Poland is the supreme law of this country, and any international agreement or treaty is subordinate to it.

The ruling was preceded by months of legal proceedings in which the Polish government and parliament defended the supremacy of the Polish constitution over EU law and argued that the European Court's rulings sometimes contradicted Polish law.

At the same time, the European Union does not consider the Constitutional Tribunal of Poland to be legitimate due to the influence of the ruling Law and Justice party in the country on the appointment of judges to this body. The European Commission has already expressed disagreement with the verdict of the tribunal, promised to evaluate it and take appropriate measures.

Further, a quote from the statement of the European Commission:

“The Commission defends and reaffirms the basic principles of the legal system of the Union, namely the supremacy of EU law over national law, including over constitutional norms. All judgments of the European Court of Justice are binding on the authorities of all EU member states, including for national courts. "

The European Commission said that the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal of Poland raises serious concern.

As stated in the statement of the body, the Commission does not hesitate to use all its powers in accordance with EU treaties to ensure the uniform application and integrity of the law of the union.

And the President of the European Parliament David Sassoli spoke about the inadmissibility of the verdict of the Polish court and called on the EC to take action.

Quote:

“Today's decision in Poland cannot remain without consequences. The rule of law of the EU should not be in doubt. Its violation disputes one of the basic principles of our union. "

Conducting a brief excursion into the history of the problem, we recall that earlier we have repeatedly written about the conflicts between the conservative authorities of Poland and the liberal Brussels bureaucracy. The latter seeks to impose on all countries of the union the so-called "European", but in fact - liberal values, including the dictatorship of minorities, LGBT propaganda, and the like.

As clerics and conservatives, representatives of the Polish ruling Law and Justice Party oppose the imposition of these pseudo-values. Last year, the country passed laws and court decisions that significantly limit the right of women to have an abortion, guided by Christian ethics. Then the liberal political forces, with the support of Brussels and non-profit grant organizations, began to take people out onto the streets, almost setting up a "Maidan" in Poland.

This year, "LGBT rights" became a stumbling block between the Polish authorities and the Brussels bureaucracy. Brussels threatened to freeze more than 50 billion euros in grant and loan support to Poland over the next few years after Poland adopted a series of resolutions at the regional level declaring certain territories "free of LGBT propaganda".

There is no doubt that after the recent decision of the Constitutional Court of Poland, these threats from the European Union will only intensify and can be realized. It is important for the European bureaucracy to punish the recalcitrant Warsaw in a demonstrative manner, so that other countries of unification do not follow its example. After all, if in all EU member states the priority of national law over European law is established, power will simply flow out of the hands of Brussels officials.

And here a logical question arises: if Poland is in the EU in order to receive free money, then why should it continue to be there if their flow stops?

In the ruling elite of Poland, there are already voices appealing to the example of Britain, which left the European Union. And I suppose this is just the beginning.

2. The 23rd Ukraine-EU Summit was held in Kyiv.

On October 12, Kiev hosted the 23rd Ukraine-EU summit, the main news of which was the signing of a long-discussed agreement on a common aviation space (the "Treaty on the Open Skies"). President Volodymyr Zelenskyy congratulated Ukraine on this, but not everyone shares his joy[13] .

Also, following the summit, a final statement was adopted, which contained a number of compliments from the Ukrainian authorities. But at the same time, Kiev was once again reminded of its obligations to the West, which they are in no hurry to fulfill at Bankova (and therefore reminders will be heard more than once).

Kiev traditionally expects top European officials to declare their readiness to continue to support Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia and at least hints about the upcoming accession to the European Union. In turn, the high-ranking guests from Brussels are sure to hear words about the immutability of the European course of one of the bloc's closest neighbors. This year, the EU delegation was led by President of the European Council Charles Michel and President of the European Commission (EC) Ursula von der Ljaen. The Ukrainian president received them at the Mariinsky Palace.

They did not depart from traditions. In a joint statement following the summit, Kiev received assurances of "unshakable support and dedication to independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity." They were also last year, but this year they were supplemented, at the insistence of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, by condemning the involvement of residents of the uncontrolled part of Donbass and Crimea in voting for deputies of the State Duma of Russia and the persecution of Crimean Tatars. It also speaks of Moscow's responsibility as a party to the conflict in Donbass.

However, the main news of the summit was the signing of an agreement on a common aviation space, which is also known as an agreement on open skies and the liberalization of air traffic. Zelensky congratulated Ukraine on this event. “These are high flight safety standards, new opportunities for citizens and business, more flights and a wider travel geography,” the head of state noted.

The agreement will apply almost immediately. And this moment was awaited by European airlines. In any case, Michael O'Leary, executive director of Ryanair, Europe's largest low-cost airline, said that with the launch of the “open skies” regime, the airline plans to increase the number of its aircraft in Ukraine and expand its base from the current five airports to 12.

Other European low-cost airlines are likely to be strengthened in the Ukrainian direction as well. Ukrainian airlines, in turn, may not be able to withstand their competition.

And having remained without competitors even on domestic airlines, European carriers may abandon the practice of cheap tickets.

At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky promises to sign the so-called "industrial visa-free" by next year, which will remove the last serious barriers to the access of Western industrial products to the Ukrainian market.

Another important decision of the last Ukraine-EU summit is the abolition of the moratorium on the export of round timber from Ukraine.

The fact is that until recent years, our country exported timber (often obtained from illegal felling) to the European Union under the guise of “firewood”. Such goods were transported at the minimum customs rate. In the EU, this wood was processed into furniture and other high value-added products. Of course, semi-smuggled Ukrainian raw materials were much cheaper than analogues, and therefore, over the past years, while the moratorium on the export of round timber was in effect, the Europeans consistently demanded its abolition.

And so, they got their way.

In connection with the above, one cannot fail to notice that the European Union views Ukraine, first of all, as a market for its own goods and services, and also as a crypto colony that can be forced to supply super-cheap raw materials for European industry.

At the same time, statements about "freedom of speech and human rights" periodically heard from the lips of European bureaucrats remain empty words. At the last summit, the European side has never raised the issue of infringement of freedom of speech in Ukraine over the past year, as well as violation of the rule of law, which is expressed in governing the country through the dubious mechanism of sanctions and other NSDC decisions.

However, this is not surprising. After all, talk about "values" is relevant only for the liberal media. In real politics, however, a harsh and merciless logic of interests prevails.

3. Victoria Nuland's visit to Moscow and Dmitry Medvedev's article on the Ukrainian government.

This week, US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland paid a three-day visit to Moscow.

She held a series of meetings with Russian officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Presidential Administration. The range of topics for discussion was very wide and included Afghanistan, the Middle East, Ukraine, China, and a number of other issues.

Nuland called the negotiations on Ukraine and the Minsk Agreements with the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation, who oversees the negotiations on Donbass on the part of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Kozak, productive.

This was reported at the US Embassy.

Note that earlier the meeting with Nuland was commented on by Kozak himself. He said that both sides confirmed that the Minsk agreements, including their political part with a special status for Donbass, remain the only basis for a settlement.

Quote:

"During the negotiations, the position of the United States voiced in Geneva was confirmed that without agreeing on the future parameters of autonomy, or in other words, the special status of Donbass within Ukraine, significant progress in resolving the conflict is hardly possible."

However, to confirm this thesis at the Russian-American talks does not mean to force Ukraine to implement it. After all, as we remember, lately Kiev has been sabotaging many of the US demands, including demands for judicial and corporate reform.

So, you shouldn't have any illusions. Even if Russia and the United States reach some kind of principled agreement on Ukraine in the near future (which in itself is unlikely), it will not be so easy to bring it to life.

Interestingly, Victoria Nuland's arrival in Moscow was preceded by the publication in the Kommersant newspaper of an article by Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council.

The article is called "Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaningless" and is devoted to the current relations between Moscow and Kiev.[14]

According to Dmitry Medvedev, negotiations with the current leadership of Ukraine are meaningless, since these are ignorant and unnecessary people who constantly change their position, and therefore one should wait for a sane leadership to appear in Kiev.

"They are constantly changing their position to please their overseas masters and the political environment," Medvedev said, referring to the current Ukrainian authorities.

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, this is how the Kiev leadership understands the art of diplomacy. "Homegrown Talleyrans. They sign the Minsk agreements, agree in the Normandy format, and then - after the internal turbulence in the Rada, in the square or '' CU "from across the ocean - they turn their position in a completely different direction," he writes.

According to Medvedev, compromises are possible in politics, sometimes some deviations from the established line, but not to the extent that the agreed approach changes to a diametrically opposite one.

"And we and our partners are constantly lying and avoiding the decisions made. And the point is not in the specific name of this or that leader. This is the position of all Ukrainian negotiators, their line of conduct, modus operandi," the article says.

"Such" partners "in international relations, who compete in constant nonsense, do not and cannot have trust. This means that negotiations with them are absolutely pointless," Medvedev stressed.

The article ends with the thesis that Russia should not do anything with regard to Ukraine, but should wait for a more constructive, from Moscow's point of view, leadership to take the helm there.

In our opinion, Dmitry Medvedev's article demonstrates a number of important trends in Russian politics:

First, the Russian elite sees a problem in Ukraine. And although she does not yet know how to solve this problem, the intensification of dialogue between elite groups at the highest level, as well as communication with society about its strategic solution, suggests that the ruling circles of the Russian Federation are striving to work out such a solution.

Secondly, at the moment there are no effective methods for solving the "Ukrainian problem" in the key of Russian interests, except for the powerful ones. At the same time, the Russian elite does not want to resort to forceful methods, since it is incredibly expensive and entails large reputational and economic costs.

Thirdly, the attempts of the Russian elites to find non-violent methods of solving the problem of Ukraine invariably run up against the predominant control of the United States over the Ukrainian elite, the media and political field of the country as a whole. Under these conditions, political forces that are constructively inclined towards the Russian Federation simply cannot develop and take power. That is why Medvedev's proposal "to do nothing with Ukraine and wait for constructive forces to take the helm there" cannot become an effective strategy for solving the problem for Moscow. “By themselves,” such forces will not be able to come to power in Ukraine, and Russia has no leverage to bring them to power.

And fourthly, the Kremlin does not see the point in talking with Ukrainian politicians, due to their dependence on the United States and their inability to negotiate. Thus, the Russian leadership is sending a signal to Washington that it is ready to negotiate all "Ukrainian affairs" only with the Americans.

4. Futurological article by Vladislav Surkov

Another interesting piece of news this week was that the former main ideologist of the Kremlin, Vladislav Surkov, suddenly decided to prove himself in the role of a futurologist.

A former aide to the President of Russia, who left this post in early 2020, wrote an article "Deserted Democracy"[15] . It is dedicated to the future of humanity and predicts wars, the redistribution of cyberspace and the growing role of machines and artificial intelligence.

The article was published on October 11 by the site "Actual Comments".

In his work, Surkov looks into the distant future, after 2100. Here are some of his theses:

1. The next hundred years can be boldly flipped through, since everything is clear with them. They will become the times of i-imperialism, that is, active division and "colonization" of cyberspace. In the context of this general process, there will be several wars (including, it seems, nuclear) for the American legacy. As a result, a new system of global distribution of domination and subordination is formed.

2. At the same time, the models of state structure will not change significantly for a long time. Political mutations accumulate slowly, and only at the end of the century, reforms and revolutions will give rise to several new types of states that will develop and gain strength by the beginning of the next century.

3. By the year 2121, these futuristic patterns of statehood will be supplemented in order to subsequently completely supplant the forms of political organization of society that are familiar to us.

4. The crisis of representation observed today has already given rise to a discussion about the advisability of the existence of classical institutions of democracy, such as parliamentarism. The deputy as a means of communication between the "people" and the "power of the people" looks, in the opinion of some experts, rather archaic. Why, one wonders, should someone choose and send somewhere, paying for the sent travel and abundant food, today, when there is an Internet that is capable of transmitting your opinion to anyone at the speed of light, bypassing well-fed intermediaries? Not a rhetorical question. To which there is also such an answer: in general, there is no need.

5. Political representation fails on all fronts. On the one hand, the "people's" representatives turn into usurpers and manipulators, distorting the signals given by the people. On the other hand, the people themselves, in turn, are sending more and more confused signals, as live voters are squeezed and shouted down by gangs of brazen bots, fake accounts and other virtual immigrants who complement the political reality beyond recognition.

6. In our electronic modernity, there are already technical possibilities for citizens to be able to represent themselves, directly involved in decision-making procedures.

7. Algorithms are already effectively managing investor funds in global financial markets. The main political practices, both legislative and, even more so, electoral ones, are in no way more complicated than stock and currency transactions. And if people trust the electronic algorithm with the most precious thing they have - their favorite money, then nothing prevents them from entrusting it with some political convictions, the firmness of which, alas, is inversely proportional to liquidity.

8. Elections, lawmaking, many functions of the executive branch, court and arbitration proceedings, debates and even protest actions - all this can be delegated to artificial intelligence without leaving the party.

9. Of course, the political class will not completely disappear. Algorithms have owners. According to Karl Marx, who owns the means of production also has a decisive influence. In the digital age, these are IT giants who turn their front (friendly interface) to the masses, and their backs (hospitably open backdoor) to the special services. Digitists and security officials, thus, will remain in the game.

10. As a result of the inevitable digitalization and robotization of the political system, a high-tech state will emerge - a deserted democracy. The main feature of a deserted democracy will be a sharp decline in the role of the human factor in the political process. Leaders and crowds will gradually leave the historical scene. And the cars will come out to her.

After reading this article, we are not left with the feeling that Surkov is slightly behind the development of modern political trends and writes about the future as it seemed a couple of years ago, and not about what it seems now.

First, the concept of the likelihood of a "technological singularity" has already been convincingly challenged by leading Western (and Russian) scientists. A machine will most likely never get smarter or more functional than a human. In addition, the machine has no irrational manifestations. She cannot go beyond the limits of the program. Even "self-learning machines" self-learn within the program.

So, the era of "robot slaves" rather than "robot masters" is much more likely.

Secondly, the entire ephemerality of "digital domination" was proved a little over a week ago, when American financiers stupidly cut off Facebook in order to humble Michael Zuckerberg and show who is in power here (that is, there, in America). The traditional state, with its power tools, will continue to remain relevant due to the fact that the "digit" can be chopped off and even completely destroyed by several dozen strong armed guys.

Actually, now there is a trend towards establishing control of traditional states over the digital space. However, this does not negate the fact that in the future the digital sphere and the opportunities it produces for the formation of a society of control will serve traditional states, adding to their arsenal of management technologies.

And yet, in this situation, the politics of the future is the power of state elites armed with technology, not the power of technology corporations as such.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

Certain regions of Ukraine are under a direct threat of disruption of the heating season 2021/22, but not because of the physical lack of gas, but because of the refusal of suppliers to supply fuel at the old price fixed in the relevant contracts. Private business, without hesitation, is trying to cash in on the sharply increased gas prices against the background of high demand in the European market. Local authorities have no choice but to declare an emergency in the energy sector. The memorandum signed by the OP, the Cabinet of Ministers and Naftogaz on limiting the growth of the price of blue fuel has loopholes used by gas suppliers and extorts more money from local authorities, despite the prices fixed in the existing contracts.

The government, represented by the nationalized Privatbank, continues its course towards total fiscalization, this time limiting the maximum number of card-to-card transactions within Ukraine to 100 transactions per month. Thus, the authorities are trying to bring about 70 billion hryvnias (or almost 3 billion dollars) out of the shadows. However, in reality, these measures can only lead to an even greater departure of mutual settlements into the shadows.

1. The Rada wants to ban private companies from selling gas at market prices .

On October 13, the chairman of the Servant of the People faction David Arakhamia said on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel that the Verkhovna Rada deputies are discussing plans by a special law to temporarily oblige private gas producing companies to sell blue fuel at prime cost with a small extra charge[16] . He added that all gas producing companies, including Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK Naftogaz, Nikolai Zlochevsky's Burisma Holdings, Igor Kolomoisky's enterprises and others, should be among the companies that can oblige to sell gas on the mentioned conditions. Arahamia also said that this gas could be directed to the needs of budgetary organizations.

This statement by David Arakhamia is, on the one hand, a PR of the authorities in an attempt to improve their ratings, and on the other hand, real fears about the passage of the heating season 2021/22.

2. The risk of an energy crisis in Ukraine on the eve of the start of the heating season .

On October 11, on the official website of the Transcarpathian Regional State Administration, a message was published about an unscheduled meeting of the regional commission on technogenic and environmental safety (TEB) and Emergencies (PE), which considered the issue of an emergency situation related to the lack of natural gas supplies to budgetary institutions for the heating season 2021/22[17] . Suppliers refuse to supply gas at the old prices (before the sharp increase in prices in Europe), despite the signed contracts. The memorandum signed by the OP, the Cabinet of Ministers and NJSC Naftogaz does not provide for a stable price for budgetary institutions and organizations as separate legal entities using natural gas for heating and hot water supply. And since almost all regional institutions have autonomous boiler houses, they purchase fuel directly from suppliers under individual contracts in accordance with the procedure provided for by the Law on Public Procurement. A possible way out of the crisis situation could be the introduction of a guaranteed supplier of natural gas under individual contracts to meet the needs of budgetary institutions and organizations of problem areas for the heating period of 2021-2022.

The absence of criminal liability for the possible disruption of the heating season in certain regions of Ukraine by gas suppliers who violate the terms of contracts for the supply of gas and do not supply it to consumers, not because of the lack of raw materials or technical problems, but simply because Europe and the pegging of gas prices in Ukraine to world prices indicates a deeply flawed situation in Ukraine with respect to the judicial system and the system of power as such, where gas suppliers can openly blackmail local authorities, de facto, extorting more money from them for the same the amount of gas, despite the price fixed in the contracts for its supply. This situation once again indicates a deep level of degradation of the state power system, which, in fact, capitulates to private business.

3. PrivatBank has limited the frequency of operations with bank cards.

On October 13, on the official website of PrivatBank, a message appeared about the limitation of the maximum number of money transfers from card to card within Ukraine to 100 transactions per month and up to 25 across the border of Ukraine[18] .

This innovation of the largest bank of Ukraine is aimed at combating shadow businesses that operate by evading taxes. According to journalist Yuri Tkachev, up to 70 billion hryvnia per year rotates inside Ukraine, or almost 3 billion dollars in a similar way.[19] . Thus, the authorities, continuing the trend towards total fiscalization, are trying to force entrepreneurs to take their activities out of the shadows to fill the state budget and settle accounts with foreign creditors.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://news.depo.ua/rus/news/chudesnim-chinom-vipravili-vsi-pomilki-nardep-zayaviv-shcho-komitet-radi-peredav-zakon-pro-oligarkhiv-na-pidpis-202110111378065

[2] https://www.nas.gov.ua/UA/Messages/Pages/View.aspx?MessageID=8277#024

[3] https://www.nas.gov.ua/UA/Messages/Pages/View.aspx?MessageID=8277#024

[4] https://kanaldom.tv/minzdrav-utverdil-pervyj-perechen-professij-dlya-kotoryh-covid-vakczinacziya-obyazatelna-kto-sleduyushhij/

[5] https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccination-global-projections