The Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased pressure on the Southern Front and are striving to reach the vicinity of Tokmak in the coming weeks to open up prospects for an offensive on the coast of the Azov Sea. An auxiliary attack across the river is also possible. Dnieper in the Kherson region and intensifying the offensive in the area of Bakhmut.
The assistance issue to Ukraine is becoming the subject of acute election confrontation between parties and groups within the United States and political bargaining in European countries. Since most Western governments have supported Ukraine for a long time and allocated significant funds to it, the change of these governments due to elections and political crises, or the coming to power of the opposition, is fraught with a revision of the previous policy towards Ukraine. In addition, the opposition, as a rule, demands a report on the appropriateness and effectiveness of using funds to support Ukraine. The allied countries have already allocated about $200 billion to Ukraine, so EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell reported that Ukraine received €85 billion from the EU (of which at least 25 billion was military aid). Previously, the United States stated that its assistance volume had exceeded $110 billion since the beginning of the war (at least $43 billion in military assistance).
The situation is aggravated by the fact that the advance of Ukrainian troops at the front four months after the counteroffensive has yet to achieve symbolically significant results (as was the case, for example, a year ago in the Kharkiv or Kherson regions).
In particular, the lack of significant progress in advancing Ukrainian troops provoked increased skepticism in American society. Also, it increases attacks by the opposition (Republicans) regarding the correctness of US President D. Biden's policy on Ukraine.
Thus, Republicans regularly raise the issue that aid to Ukraine needs to be reduced or even stopped, and an audit of previously allocated funds must be conducted. All this could negatively affect President D. Biden's ratings, especially considering that in American society, support for Ukraine regarding funding has weakened. And there is now a partisan split in the United States regarding the Ukrainian issue. Republicans overall say Congress should not authorize a new budget, 71%. Among Democrats, a majority says the opposite: 62% favor additional financing.
The American financing of Ukraine due to internal political party confrontation is becoming increasingly complex. So the other day, the US Congress passed a temporary bill on government spending (valid until November 17, 2023), which does not include assistance to Ukraine. US President D. Biden said the Republicans promised to provide this assistance through a separate vote. That is, later, this assistance may be approved separately.
Thus, assistance to Ukraine will now be allocated in separate bills, requiring particular discussion. And political debate, including audit and criticism. That is, the process of giving funding to Ukraine can turn into a "political show" of confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, which in turn will significantly complicate it. It also becomes clear that increasing the volume of American assistance will only be possible after a while. It, in turn, may negatively affect the prospects for preparing new large-scale counteroffensives.
The confrontation around the figure of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives and the need to look for new solutions to adopt a budget law after the 45-day period further needs to be clarified, and the adoption of any documents by Congress.
The Pentagon sent a letter to the US Congress stating that the remaining funds for military assistance to Ukraine will be enough for about six months, provided that costs remain the same. US administration spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the White House currently has funds for immediate military assistance to Ukraine but not long-term support. She added that the United States will announce a new military assistance package to Ukraine this week.
It is worth noting that during the year, the funding for Ukraine increases through the introduction of Presidential bills or additional funds are allocated under other budget items. Remember that the US defense budget gave $800 million last year to help Ukraine. As a rule, Ukraine regularly receives military assistance throughout the year as part of other packages, so the volume of US military assistance has already exceeded $43 billion since the beginning of the war.
In general, the allied countries strive to demonstrate demonstrative unity regarding the course of support for Ukraine. The attitude of European and American society towards continued support for Ukraine is now somewhat different. In Europe, support for Ukraine remains high (on average above 50% for various items) despite economic losses and general fatigue from the war, unlike the US, where the level of support is already beginning to decline (55% of Americans believe that the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine). It is probably why European partners are striving to demonstrate more determination in this regard.
EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell said that the EU will continue to provide financial support to Ukraine and increase it regardless of what happens in the United States. J. Borrell and the foreign ministers of the EU countries organized a meeting in Kyiv. Holding this meeting in Ukraine as soon as possible is a demonstration of support for the country and the reform process it is undertaking to join the EU, a way to preserve the exemplary unity of the international community (including aimed at the internal audience in the EU), from which any practical steps regarding integration may not follow Ukraine. European partners are now considering the issue of preparing to decide on the possible start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU.
Representatives of the Ukrainian government believe that the decision to gather EU foreign ministers in Kyiv is a clear signal of the bloc's commitment to expansion and Ukraine's accession to the EU, which is not entirely true. Following the summit in Kyiv, the foreign ministers of the EU countries were unable to agree on the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 5 billion euros for the following year. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said he intends to achieve this agreement by the end of the year. He also confirmed the EU's intention to train approximately 40 thousand Ukrainian military personnel, including pilots for the F-16, by the end of the year.
The European Parliament approved a revision of the European Union budget for 2021–2027, which now provides for creating a special Ukrainian fund of 50 billion euros. The EU will likely bear the primary responsibility for financial support amid political and electoral complications in the US.
After the visit of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, to the United States, Washington sent a letter to the Ukrainian leadership with a list of required reforms. The reforms mentioned in the letter are related to the conditions for the provision of US assistance, but some also to the requirements of the European Union and the IMF.
Among the reforms that Ukraine must implement within three months is strengthening the independence of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP), including expanding procedural powers. It is necessary to increase the number of investigators of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) by at least 300 people and to obtain the right to wiretap suspects and persons involved in cases (currently, this is being implemented in agreement with the SBU). It is proposed to complete the relaunch of the High Council of Justice and ensure the independence of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP). Ukraine also needs to increase the number of judges in the High Anti-Corruption Court (HAC ), create a Higher Administrative Court (HACU), and reform the SAC, including checking the integrity of current judges.
Within a year, Ukraine should ensure the holding of a new competition for the position of head of the Asset Tracing and Management Agency (ARMA). Restart the selection and qualification of judges—reform of the Constitutional Court. Liberalize gas and electricity tariffs. Strengthen the work of the Accounts Chamber and the State Audit Service, which should contribute to transparent processes during restoration. Reform the Ministry of Defense and bring it closer to NATO standards.
Priorities for a year and a half. Reorganization of the Bureau of Economic Security (BES). Limit the powers of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to those related to counterintelligence, cybersecurity, and the fight against terrorism—reform of the Ministry of Strategic Industries and Ukroboronprom. Complete the Office of the Prosecutor General reform and conduct certification of employees. Introduce a transparent selection of employees in the National Police—customs and State Border Service reform. Introduce general inspections for restoration.
Most of the requirements repeat old themes and approaches. And they are either already at a particular implementation stage or are unlikely to be implemented. It raises questions about the feasibility, relevance, or feasibility of some of the demands, and only a certain proportion of these reforms will likely be implemented. Ukraine has accumulated vast experience in sabotaging Western reforms.
Public presentation of demands regarding reforms to the Ukrainian leadership, including those aimed at American society, to demonstrate a responsible approach to implementing the Ukrainian case.
At the same time, the United States is increasing control over the use of allocated assistance. Thus, a systematic set of wishes was put forward regarding implementing several reforms in exchange for continued military and financial aid provisions. The fight against corruption will be a condition for future economic and military assistance. The United States and Ukraine have agreed to jointly, under the control of the Pentagon, identify and prevent corruption crimes related to the supply of American weapons. Representatives of the US Department of Defense and NABU signed the corresponding memorandum. The Director of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), Semen Kryvonis, and the Pentagon Inspector General Robert Storch signed the memorandum's primary goal today. The document provides for joint activities to identify and prevent corruption offenses affecting assistance from the United States. R. Storch will monitor the use of the aid that Washington sends to Kyiv and cooperate with the supervisory authorities of the US Agency for International Development and the US State Department. Let us also recall that Penny Pritzker was previously appointed as the US Special Representative for the Economic Recovery of Ukraine; she has already announced the existence of certain conditions under which Ukraine will receive funding.
Western partners carefully approach the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine, especially long-range missiles, due to their reluctance to escalate the situation with the Russian Federation.
Even though the United States has promised to provide Ukraine with ATACMS long-range missiles, Germany has refrained from transferring its Taurus long-range missiles. The three-party coalition government of Germany has already "approved the delivery in principle." Still, German Chancellor O. Scholz is blocking the transfer of Taurus to Ukraine, allegedly due to fears that German personnel will have to be sent to help maintain the missiles. Moscow will regard this as a confrontation with Berlin.
To speed up the counteroffensive, the White House and the Pentagon are exploring possibly sending up to 30 additional M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said that British troops will be stationed in Ukraine for the first time since the start of the war. We are talking about military instructors who will train Ukrainians right on the spot. But later, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak denied his minister's proposal and called his statements "false information." He said that British troops train Ukrainians exclusively in the UK. According to him, the situation can change only after the end of hostilities.
The statement by the new British Minister of Defense is not a sign of misunderstanding among representatives of the British leadership but was intended to test the reaction of the Russian Federation.
This week, threats to use nuclear weapons have resumed with even more significant activity in the Russian Federation. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev again threatened NATO with direct conflict. The statement by British Defense Minister Grant Shapps was not ignored; D. Medvedev indicated that the Russian leadership, in this case, does not rule out a clash with NATO countries. He wrote that in this case, British instructors would become "legitimate targets" of the Russian Federation and would be perceived "as NATO military personnel."
There are concerns among Ukraine's allies that the course of the war could lead to significant further escalation either within Ukraine or to a potential expansion of the conflict to include other players. In general, the West believes that the impetus for nuclear escalation could be a sharp deterioration in Russia's position on the battlefield or a sharp decline in internal stability in Russia. Strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation may also increase political risks and push its leadership to more challenging decisions.
New personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense may indicate that the government team is partially making concessions to Western partners, and a figure is being added to the number of deputy ministers who can instead be considered a representative of the interests of international donors.
Otherwise, we can say that the Office of the President has distributed new positions in the Ministry of Defense among “its people” and thus will continue to control the main financial flows of the department.
So, the government appointed three new Deputy Ministers of Defense, R. Umerov: Yuri Dzhigir, Natalya Kalmykova, and Ekaterina Chernorenko.
It is known that Yuri Dzhigir is a former deputy minister of finance in the government of Alexei Goncharuk and a freelance adviser to the Cabinet of Ministers from 2014-2018. For the last three years, she has been advising the World Bank on the financial aspects of health-related reforms. In 2018-2020, he worked as Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine. It is he who can be considered a representative of the interests of Western partners.
Natalya Kalmykova - Deputy for Social Development. Since February 2022, she has been the executive director of the Ukrainian Veterans Fund; before that, she was an adviser to the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and deputy director of the "Come Back Alive" foundation. Most likely, it is aimed at the Office of the President.
Ekaterina Chernogorenko - Deputy for Digital Development. Previously, she worked at the Ministry of Digital Development and managed the Drone Army project. Since 2018, he has been the project coordinator for eMalyatko electronic services, electronic sick leave, and implementing COVID certificates in Die.
The government also appointed Lyudmila Daragan as State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. It is known about her that she was Rustem Umerov’s deputy in the State Property Fund, which the current minister led before receiving a new position.
The Ukrainian budget from Western partners will likely be financed at a lower limit until the end of 2023. Ukraine's budget revenues for September 2023 amounted to UAH 244 billion. Of which, internal resources collected UAH 138 billion, and external revenues amounted to $2.9 billion (of which almost all of this was $1.6 billion from the EU, $1.2 billion from the USA, $100 million from the World Bank In total, this is 106.4 billion UAH.
Thus, the percentage ratio of external and internal revenues is 44% and 56%, respectively.
Budget expenditures in September amounted to UAH 230 billion. Thus, this month's total budget revenues covered its expenses with an accumulation of -14 billion UAH.
In general, external assistance increased by $1.2 billion (+70%) compared to August. In August, when budget expenditures did not cover its expenses by UAH 33 billion, international donor assistance accounted for only 28% of all revenues, and domestic revenues - 72%. Even though, on average, it ranged from 40% to 60% for the year. External financing in August was the minimum for the year and amounted to $1.7 billion or UAH 62.2 billion. (68% less than in July - $5.3 billion). If we look at the dynamics, external assistance in June was also slightly lower (June - $3 billion or UAH 110 billion; May $3.25 billion or UAH 119 billion; April - $5.55 billion or UAH 203 billion).
Earlier, representatives of the Government of Ukraine stated that 3 to 5 billion dollars of external assistance are needed to cover the budget deficit. Financing the Ukrainian budget from Western partners is now at the lower limit. International donors already funded Ukraine's budget for over $32 billion in 2023. By the end of the year, up to $40 billion is expected. That is, the balance is about $8 billion, meaning that Ukraine will receive less than $3 billion monthly.
Military situation
Warfare.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: The Kupyansky direction remains the same.
In Donbas, clashes of lesser intensity are observed in the areas of Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Avdiivka.
In the Donetsk region, attacks were repelled in Grygorivka, Klishchiivka, and Andriivka.
The situation in the Southern direction: In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations in Melitopol and Berdyansk. In the area of the village Rabotino of the Russian Federation, which is trying to regain lost positions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the line.
Black Sea-Azov direction: without significant changes.
Combat map.
Internal situation.
The Ministry of Defense has appointed new deputies.
The government has appointed three new deputy defense ministers. R. Umerov's deputies were Yuri Dzhigir, Natalya Kalmykova, and Ekaterina Chernogonko.
It is known that Yuri Dzhigir is a former deputy minister of finance in the government of Olexiy Goncharuk and a freelance adviser to the Cabinet of Ministers from 2014-2018. For the last three years, she has been advising the World Bank on the financial aspects of health-related reforms. From 2018-2020, he worked as Deputy Minister of Finance of Ukraine.
Natalya Kalmykova will become Deputy for Social Development. Since February 2022, she has been the executive director of the Ukrainian Veterans Fund; before that, she was an adviser to the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and deputy director of the "Come Back Alive" foundation.
Ekaterina Chernogorenko will become deputy for digital development. Previously, she worked at the Ministry of Digital Development and managed the Drone Army project. Since 2018, he has been the project coordinator for eMalyatko electronic services, electronic sick leave, and implementing COVID certificates in Die.
The government also appointed Lyudmila Daragan as State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. It is known about her that she was Rustem Umerov’s deputy in the State Property Fund, which the current minister led before receiving a new position.
Last week, the Cabinet of Ministers dismissed all deputy ministers of defense and the structure's secretary of state from their positions. Only First Deputy Minister, Lieutenant General Alexander Pavlyuk, remained in his position in the Ministry of Defense.
Economic situation.
Ukraine's budget revenues for September 2023 amounted to UAH 244 billion. Of these, internal resources collected UAH 138 billion. Tax: +56.8 billion UAH (+1.8% to the plan). Excise tax +26.2%. Customs: +43.2 billion UAH (-7% of the project). War bonds collected +38 billion UAH.
In terms of external receipts, in September, they amounted to $2.9 billion (of which almost all of this was $1.6 billion from the EU, $1.2 billion from the USA, and $100 million from the World Bank. In total, this is 106 4 billion UAH.
Thus, the percentage ratio of external and internal revenues is 44% and 56%, respectively.
Budget expenditures in September amounted to UAH 230 billion.
Thus, this month's total budget revenues covered its expenses with an accumulation of -14 billion UAH.
In general, external assistance in September increased by $1.2 billion (+70%) compared to August.
In August, international donor assistance accounted for only 28% of all receipts, respectively, and domestic revenues - 72%. External resources in August - $1.7 billion or UAH 62.2 billion (68% less than in July - $5.3 billion).
If we look at the dynamics, external assistance in June was also slightly lower (June - $3 billion or UAH 110 billion; May $3.25 billion or UAH 119 billion; April - $5.55 billion or UAH 203 billion).
In August, the total filling of the country's budget did not cover its expenses. So, the budget expenses of UAH 248 billion exceeded its revenue (214.8 billion UAH) by 33 billion UAH.
In August, international donor assistance accounted for only 28% of all receipts, while domestic revenues accounted for 72%—external resources - $1.7 billion or UAH 62.2 billion (68% less than in July).
If we look at the dynamics, external assistance in June was also slightly lower (June - $3 billion or UAH 110 billion; May $3.25 billion or UAH 119 billion; April - $5.55 billion or UAH 203 billion).
International donors have already financed the country's budget for over $32 billion in 2023. (expected to be $40 billion by the end of the year). By the end of the year, the balance is about $8 billion, which means that Ukraine will receive less than $3 billion per month. Previously, representatives of the Ukrainian government stated that to cover the budget deficit, it is necessary from $3 to $5 billion. That is, financing The country's budget from Western partners will be within minimal limits.
The situation around Ukraine.
The United States demanded that Ukraine carry out several reforms in exchange for continuing to provide it with military and financial assistance.
After the visit of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, to the United States, Washington sent a letter to the Ukrainian leadership with a list of required reforms. The reforms referred to in the letter "are related to the conditions of US assistance," but some also to the requirements of the European Union and the IMF.
This list was provided as a basis for consultation with the Government of Ukraine and key partners as part of our continued support for Ukraine and its efforts to integrate into Europe, goals that the United States strongly supports. The purpose of these efforts is to identify priorities and consolidate reform efforts with Ukraine and critical stakeholders," the US Embassy said in a statement.
The requirements are divided into points depending on the "priority" deadline: up to 3 months, up to 6 months, a year, and a year and a half. They relate to the functioning of the Supervisory Boards of State Enterprises, anti-corruption bodies (SAP, NABU, NAPC), the High Council of Justice, and the judicial branch of government.
Among the reforms that Ukraine must implement within three months is strengthening the independence of the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP), including expanding procedural powers. It is necessary to increase the number of investigators of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) by at least 300 people. It is proposed to complete the relaunch of the High Council of Justice and ensure the independence of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NACP).
Among the reforms that Ukraine must carry out within six months are to increase the number of judges in the High Anti-Corruption Court (HAC ), create the Higher Administrative Court (HACU), and reform the SAC, including checking the integrity of current judges.
Within a year, Ukraine should ensure the holding of a new competition for the position of head of the Asset Tracing and Management Agency (ARMA). Restart the selection and qualification of judges—reform of the Constitutional Court. Liberalize gas and electricity tariffs. Strengthen the work of the Accounts Chamber and the State Audit Service, which should contribute to transparent processes during restoration. Reform the Ministry of Defense and bring it closer to NATO standards.
Priorities for a year and a half. Reorganization of the Bureau of Economic Security (BES). Limit the powers of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) to those related to counterintelligence, cybersecurity, and the fight against terrorism—reform of the Ministry of Strategic Industries and Ukroboronprom. Complete the Office of the Prosecutor General reform and conduct certification of employees. Introduce a transparent selection of employees in the National Police—customs and State Border Service reform. Introduce general inspections for restoration.
Prospects for military operations, arms supplies. The Russian Federation threatens a direct clash with NATO countries.
A specific deadlock at the front is forcing Western partners to look for various new ways to improve the advancement of Ukrainian troops. Thus, British Defense Minister Grant Shapps said that British troops would be deployed in Ukraine for the first time since the start of the war. We are talking about military instructors who will train Ukrainians right on the spot. But later, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak denied his minister's proposal and called his statements "false information." He said that British troops train Ukrainians exclusively in the UK. According to him, the situation can change only after the end of hostilities.
The new British Minister of Defense's statement was meant to test the Russian reaction. So, in the Russian Federation, this statement was addressed. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote that in this case, British instructors would become "legitimate targets" of the Russian Federation and would be perceived "as NATO military personnel," essentially indicating that the Russian leadership, in this case, does not exclude attacks on these countries.
In turn, former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, on the pages of the Telegraph, called partners to send the Ukrainian Armed Forces more ammunition, Storm Shadows, and ATACMS long-range missiles. In his opinion, in this way, Ukraine will achieve success on the battlefield, and this will also prevent a split in the international community and will not allow V. Putin to gain time. Ben Wallace believes that Ukraine needs to more actively recruit young people into the Armed Forces of Ukraine as part of mobilization - former head of the British Ministry of Defense: “ The average age of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers at the front exceeds 40 years. I understand President V. Zelensky's desire to save young people for the future,” he wrote.
In Germany, the German Bundestag Defense Committee head, Marie Strack-Zimmermann (an interview with Zimmerman was entitled: "Putin is too scared for an atomic bomb"), said that Ukraine has the right to strike Russia with Western weapons, including Crimea. Marie Strack-Zimmerman called on Chancellor Olaf Scholz not to delay the decision to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. In response to this statement, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev threatened "strikes on German factories; where are these missiles made? "These idiots are pushing us towards a third world war," he added.
So far, Germany has not officially confirmed the transfer of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Unofficially, there are statements that the missiles could be transferred if the United States takes a similar step. In particular, German Chancellor O. Scholz fears that this will lead to escalation and the threat of a direct clash with the Russian Federation, which, as can be seen from D. Medvedev's statement, Moscow is already directly threatening.
In general, Ukraine's allied countries are expressing concerns that a sharp deterioration in Russia's position on the battlefield and attacks on its territory could lead to significant further escalation within Ukraine or a potential expansion of the conflict involving other players. Therefore, they carefully approach the issue of arms supplies, especially long-range missiles.
At the same time, the allied countries also strive to demonstrate demonstrative unity regarding the course of support for Ukraine.
EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell said that the EU will continue to provide financial support to Ukraine and increase it regardless of what happens in the United States. J. Borrell and the foreign ministers of the EU countries organized a meeting in Kyiv. Holding this meeting in Ukraine is instead a demonstration of support for the country and the reform process that it is carrying out to join the EU, a way to maintain the demonstrative unity of the international community (including intended for the internal audience in the EU), from which some consequences may not follow. - practical steps regarding the integration of Ukraine. European partners are now considering the issue of preparing to make a decision on the possible start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership in the EU.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky also took part in the summit of EU foreign ministers held in Kyiv and named several steps that, in his opinion, should be implemented:
- activity in defense support of Ukraine (supply of weapons shells, expanding the range of training of Ukrainian soldiers, and increasing the joint production capacity of the defense industry);
- involving as many states as possible in the implementation of the Peace Formula;
- accession of seven more states of the European community to security guarantees for Ukraine on its way to NATO;
- intensifying work on a new EU sanctions package against Russia and expanding sanctions against Iran;
- the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the EU this year,
- approval by the European Union institutions of a financial instrument for the Ukraine – Ukraine Facility.
- acceleration of work in the European Union to channel frozen Russian assets to finance the restoration of war-related destruction in Ukraine.
Earlier, Josep Borrell said that the European Union will continue to financially support Ukraine and increase it regardless of what happens in the United States. He also noted that Ukraine received €85 billion from the EU. In particular, EU military support reached €25 billion.
Following the summit in Kyiv, the foreign ministers of the EU countries could not agree on allocating military assistance to Ukraine for 5 billion euros the following year. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said he intends to achieve this agreement by the end of the year. He also confirmed the EU's intention to train approximately 40 thousand Ukrainian military personnel, including pilots for the F-16, by the end of the year.
The European Parliament approved a revision of the European Union budget for 2021–2027, which now provides for creating a special Ukrainian fund of 50 billion euros. The EU will likely bear the primary responsibility for financial support amid political and electoral complications in the US.
The attitude of European and American society towards continued support for Ukraine is now somewhat different. In Europe, support for Ukraine remains high (on average above 50% for various items) despite economic losses and general fatigue from the war. It differs from the US, where the level of support is already declining (55% of Americans believe that the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine). It is probably why European partners are striving to demonstrate more determination in this regard.
It is becoming increasingly more work for the US Congress to agree on aid to Ukraine.
On the eve of the presidential election campaign in the United States regarding assistance to Ukraine, the confrontation between the Administration of President D. Biden and the House of Representatives of the US Congress, where Republicans occupy the majority, continues (some of them advocate a significant reduction and control of funds provided to Ukraine). The US Congress late Saturday passed a stopgap funding bill with overwhelming support from Democrats and avoided a government shutdown. A bill will be in force until November 17, excluding assistance to Ukraine from it (after a lengthy debate). US President D. Biden said the Republicans promised to provide this assistance through a separate vote. That is, later, this assistance may be approved separately.
Thus, assistance to Ukraine will now be allocated in separate bills, requiring particular discussion and political debate, including audit and criticism. That is, the process of giving funding to Ukraine can turn into a "political show" of confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, which in turn will significantly complicate it. It also becomes clear that it will not be possible to increase the volume of American assistance shortly. It, in turn, may negatively affect the future prospects for preparing new large-scale counteroffensives.
The confrontation around the figure of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives and the need to look for new solutions to adopt a budget law after the 45-day period further needs to be clarified, and the adoption of any documents by Congress.
In general, they agree on the allocation of assistance to Ukraine. It's getting more and more difficult. There is a partisan divide on this issue in the United States. Republicans overall say Congress should not authorize new funding, 71%. Among Democrats, a majority says the opposite: 62% favor additional financing.
Let us recall that almost half of the Republicans in the House of Representatives voted to exclude $300 million from the defense budget intended for training Ukrainian soldiers and purchasing weapons. However, this assistance may be approved separately later. It is worth noting that during the year, funding can be increased by introducing Presidential bills, or additional funds will be allocated under other budget items. Remember that the US defense budget gave $800 million last year to help Ukraine. As a rule, Ukraine regularly receives military assistance throughout the year as part of other packages, so the volume of US military assistance has already exceeded $43 billion since the beginning of the war.
The Pentagon sent a letter to the US Congress stating that the remaining funds for military assistance to Ukraine will be enough for about six months, provided that costs remain the same. US administration spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said the White House currently has funds for immediate military assistance to Ukraine but not long-term support. She added that the United States will announce a new military assistance package to Ukraine this week.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
