Against the backdrop of intensifying geopolitical confrontation between the global South East (PRC and the Russian Federation) and the global North West (USA and allies), processes continue in Ukraine: to increase the length of the front line, new military aid packages are being received, and there is also a further depletion of Ukrainian infrastructure (mobilization is intensifying, electricity prices are rising, etc.).
So, against the backdrop of Russian attacks in the Kharkiv region, US Secretary of State A. Blinken visited Ukraine (May 14-15). In this way, the United States sought to assure Ukraine of continued American support. Also, the visit of the US Secretary of State to Ukraine was supposed to act as an essential geopolitical signal for the Russian Federation and China (on the eve of the visit of the Russian President there on May 16-17). A. Blinken sought to emphasize that the Russian Federation has yet to achieve its primary goals in Ukraine for the American voter, for the Ukrainians, and for the world community as a whole.
Thus, Antony Blinken's playing of Neil Young's "Rockin' In The Free World" in a Kyiv bar caused a strong reaction on social networks. Before that, he also had a working lunch with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, D. Kuleba, at a pizzeria in the center of Kyiv. But in fact, nothing is surprising in A. Blinken's behavior. On the eve of the presidential elections in the United States, A. Blinken, on the one hand, played on the "strings of the soul" of American voters. On the other, he "played on the nerves" of Russian President V. Putin on the eve of his momentous visit to the PRC. This behavior of A. Blinken was supposed to demonstrate that the United States feels confident in Ukraine. And, in particular, to establish the safety of being in Kyiv (the city that V. Putin wanted to take in a few days).
Main topics of discussion A. Blinken with the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky and other government officials were the problematic situation at the front (the problem does not correspond to the election promises of US President Joe Biden about strengthening Ukraine), preparations for the upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and personnel changes in the Government of Ukraine, plan for using the recently allocated US aid package of about 61 billion dollars (calendar, procedure, and format for receiving aid to Ukraine). The upcoming NATO summit in Washington (July 9 to 11, 2024) was discussed. Since Ukraine is expected not to receive an invitation to the Alliance again, a specific compensatory mechanism will be developed. As part of this, a draft of a bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States was discussed (following the example of the accords already concluded between Ukraine and some other countries on assisting Ukraine in the event of a new aggression).
During the visit, issues of combating corruption were also discussed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that Ukraine must defeat the Russian Federation and overcome bribery within the country so as not to "become like Russia."
The White House is very concerned about the further development of events at the front and near the city of Kharkiv, in particular, since the situation creates a negative political background for Ukraine and its allies, both in general for the election campaign in the United States (for Joe Biden), and during the election period in European Parliament (from 6 to June 9, 2024), and preparations for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland (15-16 June). Ukraine is also trying to achieve the presence of US President Joe Biden at the summit.
Regarding the peace process, V. Zelensky’s team (probably in agreement with the United States) is resorting to a more flexible strategy for organizing the agenda of the Global Peace Summit (to be held in Switzerland on June 15-16). President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, in his interview, stated that the idea of the Swiss "peace summit" is to develop a common position of countries on three key issues: nuclear safety, the safety of navigation in the Black and Azov Seas, as well as the return of Ukrainian children and the exchange of prisoners "all for all." If all countries support these issues and develop a step-by-step technical plan, it will be submitted to the Russian Federation for consideration. Let us recall that earlier, Ukraine and its allies planned to agree on V. Zelensky's 10-point "peace formula" at the Global Peace Summit, which, in essence, implied the surrender of the Russian Federation. But given the problematic situation for Ukraine at the front, as well as the growing skepticism of some of the world elites regarding the Ukrainian peace plan, it was probably decided to concentrate the attention of the world community on the implementation and approval of points that are expected to cause the slightest degree of disagreement.
With a high degree of probability, the points that V. Zelensky spoke about will be approved by both the countries of the Global South and one of the most influential global players - the PRC (the country's participation in the summit remains in question). In general, the PRC supported holding a peace conference in Ukraine, but they want representatives of Moscow to attend it. In contrast, according to representatives of the Ukrainian authorities, the Russian Federation can only be present at the second stage of discussions (when peace agreements have already been approved).
In turn, consolidating even three points of V. Zelensky's "peace formula" at the global level will create a more favorable political background for Ukraine and its allies during the election campaigns. It will allow us to talk about the successful start of the peace process "according to the rules of Ukraine" and, if necessary, pause it. There are no common points for reaching constructive agreements between the main warring parties (Ukraine and the Russian Federation). Therefore, the prospect of any peace agreements still needs to be more precise, at least until the end of this year, when the election processes in the United States are completed.
For its part, the Russian leadership, on the eve of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, hopes that Ukraine and its allies will not be able to involve the maximum number of countries of the Global South and the PRC in the discussion process. To disrupt this process in the Russian Federation, they can also publicly raise the topic of the so-called. "crisis of legitimacy" of the Ukrainian President. However, the so-called "crisis of the legitimacy of power" may manifest in various forms after May 20, when V. Zelensky's five-year tenure as President of Ukraine expired. From the point of view of Ukrainian law, there is no crisis in the legitimacy of the power of the President of Ukraine. Let us recall that the Central Election Commission (CEC) concluded back in March of this year that there would be no problems with the legitimacy of the President after May 20 since, during the period of martial law, the powers of the President of Ukraine cannot be terminated (the CEC refers to the provisions of the Constitution of Ukraine, Article 106 and 108 and the Law of Ukraine "On the legal regime of martial law"). V. Zelensky must exercise his powers until his successor takes office. Presidential elections must be called within 30 days after the end of martial law.
There is a certain consensus among Western allies regarding V. Zelensky's continued stay in power. They are concerned that new elections and a change of power will act as an additional factor in destabilizing Ukraine during the war.
At the front, the Russian Federation continues to advance toward Kharkiv. Thus, the Russian Armed Forces did not give up attempts to break through the Ukrainian defenses near the city of Volchansk, the villages of Staritsa, Zeleny, and Liptsy (Russian troops approached Liptsy from the northeast, advancing south of the captured village of Lukyantsev). In Volchansk itself, fighting is already taking place almost in the center (the front line in Volchansk runs along the banks of the Volchya River), and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are introducing reserves to hold the city.
Russian troops also continue to advance in other directions of the front. In particular, the Russian Federation advanced in the village of Berestovoy, southeast of Kupyansk.
In the Bakhmutst direction, the Russian Armed Forces intensified attacks on the eastern part of Chasov Yar.
Near Avdeevka, the Russian Federation captured new territories north of the settlement of Netailovo (West of the city of Avdeevka and the city of Donetsk), south of the settlement of Ocheretino, and near the settlement of Keramik.
On the Zaporizhzhia front, Russian troops, according to the public, advanced southeast and south of the settlement. Rabotino and near the village of Verbovoy.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine A. Syrsky stated that with the offensive near Kharkiv, the Russian Federation expanded the active front line by almost 70 kilometers to force the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use additional reserves. According to him, the Russian Federation wants to capture Volchansk and then the village of Belyi Kolodez to launch an offensive behind the Ukrainian troops, which are operating to the east - in the Kupyansky direction.
Also, representatives of the Defense Forces say that to stretch the Ukrainian defense forces, the Russian Federation may launch an offensive in the neighboring Sumy region of Kharkiv near Akhtyrka shortly.
The Russian Federation has so far officially stated that it is not going to storm Kharkiv. This is consistent with the statements of Ukraine and its allies, who say the Russians do not have sufficient forces in this direction. However, fighting in the Kharkiv region would burden the Ukrainian army over a vast territory (Ukraine is removing reserves from other vital areas).
External conditions can contribute to the further advancement of Russian troops, so the established dry weather contributes to offensive actions. And the events in the Kharkiv region demonstrated that the quality of Ukrainian fortifications needs to be improved. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will need several more months to feel the impact of the mobilization. Just like the resumption of American aid, it will take some time to saturate the troops with weapons and ammunition.
As Western aid begins to arrive, Ukrainian troops are already starting to be better supplied with artillery shells. President V. Zelensky said that Ukraine "for the first time in the years of war, has enough artillery shells." According to him, no brigade is complaining about a lack of shells.
Another significant problem for the Ukrainian troops at the front is the need for more human resources. At the same time, the quality of troop replacements is becoming increasingly low, which ultimately affects the retention of positions. Due to the need to quickly replenish units, basic military training was reduced from three to one month. Such a situation subsequently negatively affects the motivation of the population to go to the front, complicating the mobilization process. At the same time, Western partners set effective mobilization as one of the main conditions for further assistance to Ukraine. Regarding the need for effective mobilization in Ukraine, US Secretary of State A. Blinken once again emphasized this during his visit.
On May 18, a law on tightening mobilization came into force in Ukraine. Please note that within 60 days, citizens will need to update their data in the Territorial Center of Recruitment. This is also required of those liable for military service who are abroad. It will be possible to update personal data through the TCR, Center for Providing Administrative Services (CNAP), or an electronic account, which was made voluntary (previously, it was planned that this would be mandatory). Suppose the data needs to be updated within 60 days. In that case, administrative liability arises - fines from 17,000 ($430) to 25,500 hryvnia ($630), if desired by the military registration and enlistment office - deprivation of the right to drive a car through the court. Also, the military registration and enlistment office will be able to contact the police so that they can arrest the “violator.”
It is known that 600 thousands of people liable for military service have already updated their data (but the figure of 600 thousand is indicated not from May 18, when the law on tightening mobilization came into force, but from when V. Zelensky signed it on April 16). Through the Reserve+ application, launched on May 18, 260 thousand Ukrainians did this, which is 80 times more than through CNAPs. That is, there are about 3 thousand in CNAPs. Data on TCRs have yet to be collected. Throughout Ukraine, the TCR submitted requests to the police to search for 94.5 thousand draft dodgers, the media reported in the National Police.
The new mobilization target will primarily be young people aged 25-27. In general, the beginning of the law on mobilization marks the transition of the war to the next stage—a total war, with maximum concentration and "inclusion" of all the country's leading resources for the conduct of hostilities. This is the process of objective development of situations of war of attrition.
On May 16-17, Russian President V. Putin visited the PRC, where he met with the head of the country, Xi Jinping. In general, during the visit, it was clear that V. Putin was trying to win over the Chinese side and demonstrate the success of this visit. However, there was no significant breakthrough in relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation, and the position of the Russian Federation can instead be ingratiating. Likely, the Chinese position was partially influenced by sanctions from the United States, which will worsen as cooperation with the Russian Federation expands, which will have a detrimental effect on the Chinese economy.
The parties signed a joint statement on deepening comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction relations. In the presence of the leaders of the two countries, the Russian and Chinese delegations signed ten joint documents at the level of the Ministry of Economic Development, the Far East Development Ministry, the Ministry of Natural Resources, Rosselkhoznadzor, Rospotrebnadzor, the Business Russia Association, and news agencies. On the Chinese side, the documents were signed by representatives of similar structures of the PRC. Among the agreements signed are the concept for the development of Bolshoy-Ussuriysky Island, protocols on the requirements for products exported to China, a memorandum on holding the BRICS expert forum, agreements on media cooperation, information exchange, and cooperation between business associations.
The joint statement following the meeting stated that:
- In particular, Moscow and Beijing condemned the possible confiscation of Russian assets abroad and declared their right “to take retaliatory measures.”
- Beijing "supports Russia's actions to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and also opposes outside interference in its affairs."
-It is stated that “for a sustainable resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, it is necessary to eliminate its root causes and take into account the legitimate interests and security concerns of all countries.”
- V. Putin said that both countries are working to create a "multipolar world" and that many approaches to global and regional problems are similar.
- Xi Jinping said China and Russia insist on a "political solution" to the war in Ukraine, while Putin expressed gratitude for "China's efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis."
The death of Iranian President E. Raisi will not fundamentally change the country's foreign policy but may increase internal political instability.
On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, were in the helicopter and also died.
Iran will most likely be temporarily led by Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a former officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and former head of a foundation that looks after the assets of the Islamic Republic. He promoted a deal to supply Russia with weapons and was a hardliner in relations with the West. According to the Iranian constitution, after the death of the President, the First Vice President assumes temporary leadership. Together with the head of the judiciary and the parliament speaker, they will hold new presidential elections within 50 days.
The death of E. Raisi, as well as the election campaign processes that will follow, will increase competition among Iranian political groups, between conventionally conservative religious and conservative political groups, which may add to Iran's internal political instability.
It is worth noting that the head of Iran is not the President but the Ayatollah, the supreme leader. He is elected for life, determines the country's general policy, leads the army and intelligence, fills the central positions, and makes critical decisions. The President is the second most important official, the head of the executive branch—many saw Raisi as the future successor to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The death of the President of Iran increases the chances that Ayatollah A. Khamenei's successor will be his son.
However, in general, one can only count on a sharp change in Iran's course if significant destabilization occurs. The new Iranian leadership will continue the previous line of confrontation with the West (USA and Israel), as well as cooperation with the PRC and the Russian Federation.
Emergency power outages have resumed in Ukraine. This may be because Ukraine needs more generation and imports for the current level of consumption. This is because public opinion is being prepared for a new round of increases in electricity tariffs. Ukraine is preparing a significant increase in electricity tariffs. Electricity tariffs for the population will increase from June 1. The exact figures have yet to be approved, but we are discussing 3.5 - 5 UAH/kWh. Currently, in Ukraine, the tariff for the population is 2.64 UAH/kWh (that is, +50%). From 01.06. 2023, the electricity tariff for the population increased from 1.68 UAH/kWh to 2.64 UAH/kWh. The new tariff may be 250% higher.
From June 1, electricity tariffs for businesses will increase by at least 20%. Thus, the National Commission, which carries out state regulation in energy and utilities (NEURC), has set maximum price limits from 00:00 to 07:00, from 11:00 to 17:00 at 5600 UAH/MWh. For the period from 07:00 to 11:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 6900 UAH/MWh
In the evening hours from 17:00 to 23:00 – 9000 UAH/MWh. Minimum limit price – 10 UAH/MWh
On the balancing market, maximum price limits are set from 00:00 to 07:00 at 6600 UAH/MWh.
From 07:00 to 17:00 and 23:00 to 24:00 – 8250 UAH/MWh. For the period from 17:00 to 23:00 – 10,000 UAH/MWh. The minimum price limit is 0.01 UAH/MWh.
According to a study by the Sociological Group "Rating," more than half (55%) of those surveyed are sympathetic to raising tariffs to ensure the repair of destroyed infrastructure. In particular, 45% of respondents believe that electricity tariffs can be increased to ensure the repair campaign, considering the household's financial condition and volumes of consumption, and another 10% believe that the tariff should be increased for all consumers. At the same time, 40% think there is no need to raise tariffs, even if the situation with electricity supply worsens.
Combat map.
Internal situation in Ukraine.
Mobilization process.
The mobilization process continues in Ukraine; on May 18, a law on tightening mobilization came into force (we discussed the provisions of this law in more detail in the issue dated April 9-11, 2024). Please note that within 60 days, citizens will need to update their data in the TCR. This is also required of those liable for military service who are abroad. It will be possible to update personal data through the TCR, CNAP, or an electronic account, the creation of which was voluntary (previously, it was planned that this would be mandatory). Suppose the data needs to be updated within 60 days. In that case, administrative liability arises - fines from 17,000 ($430) to 25,500 hryvnia ($630), if desired by the military registration and enlistment office - deprivation of the right to drive a car through the court. Also, the military registration and enlistment office will be able to contact the police so that they can arrest the “violator.”
It is known that 600 thousands people liable for military service have already updated their data (but the figure of 600 thousand is indicated not from May 18, when the law on tightening mobilization came into force, but from when V. Zelensky signed it on April 16). Through the Reserve+ application, launched on May 18, 260 thousand Ukrainians did this, which is 80 times more than through CNAPs. That is, there are about 3 thousand in CNAPs. Data on TCRs have yet to be collected. Throughout Ukraine, the TCR submitted requests to the police to search for 94.5 thousand draft dodgers, media reported in the National Police.
The new mobilization target will primarily be young people aged 25-27. In general, the beginning of the law on mobilization marks the transition of the war to the next stage—a total war, with maximum concentration and "inclusion" of all the country's leading resources for the conduct of hostilities. This is the process of objective development of situations of war of attrition.
Increase in electricity tariffs.
Emergency power outages have resumed in Ukraine. This may be because Ukraine needs more generation and imports for the current level of consumption. So, it is with the fact that public opinion is being prepared for a new round of increases in electricity tariffs. Ukraine is preparing a significant increase in electricity tariffs. Electricity tariffs for the population will increase from June 1. The exact figures have yet to be approved, but we are discussing 3.5 - 5 UAH/kWh. Currently, in Ukraine, the tariff for the population is 2.64 UAH/kWh (that is, +50%). From 01.06. 2023 electricity tariff for the population increased from 1.68 UAH/kWh to 2.64 UAH/kWh. The new tariff may be 250% higher.
From June 1, electricity tariffs for businesses will increase by at least 20%. Thus, the National Commission, which carries out state regulation in energy and utilities (NEURC), has set maximum price limits from 00:00 to 07:00, from 11:00 to 17:00, at the level of 5600 UAH/MWh. For the period from 07:00 to 11:00 and from 23:00 to 24:00 – 6900 UAH/MWh
In the evening hours from 17:00 to 23:00 – 9000 UAH/MWh. Minimum limit price – 10 UAH/MWh
On the balancing market, maximum price limits are set from 00:00 to 07:00 at 6600 UAH/MWh.
From 07:00 to 17:00 and 23:00 to 24:00 – 8250 UAH/MWh. For the period from 17:00 to 23:00 – 10,000 UAH/MWh. The minimum price limit is 0.01 UAH/MWh.
According to a study by the Sociological Group "Rating," a third of respondents (35%) believe that the energy infrastructure can fully withstand challenges in the form of missile attacks, the majority (56%) think that it can partially withstand, and another 4% rate the situation as very critical.
For 54% of respondents, the situation with continuous power supply is rather good; there are no outages. 41% of respondents noted that outages occur occasionally. 4% report a lousy situation.
More than half (55%) of those surveyed are sympathetic to increasing tariffs to ensure the repair of destroyed infrastructure. In particular, 45% of respondents believe that considering the household's financial condition and consumption volumes, electricity tariffs can be increased to ensure the repair campaign, and another 10% believe that the tariff should be increased for all consumers. At the same time, 40% think there is no need to raise tariffs, even if the situation with electricity supply worsens.
74% of respondents believe that missile attacks on energy facilities are a long-term strategy of Russia aimed at destroying the Ukrainian energy sector. 7% believe that such actions are occasional. About 19% were undecided on this issue.
76% of respondents have heard of calls from the energy industry to reduce electricity consumption during peak hours. Residents of central regions and cities and richer and older respondents often note that they have heard about such calls.
Two-thirds of respondents indicated that a stable electricity supply is essential to them, but they can tolerate short-term interruptions. Another 27% noted that a stable energy supply is extremely important to them. Only 7% responded that a stable energy supply is unimportant, and they are willing to endure long interruptions.
The situation around Ukraine.
Visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ukraine.
Despite intensifying Russian attacks in the Kharkiv region, US Secretary of State A. Blinken visited Ukraine (May 14-15). He will meet with President V. Zelensky, Prime Minister D. Shmygal, and Minister of Foreign Affairs D. Kuleba.
Formally, A. Blinken sought to assure Ukraine of continued American support. Main topics of discussion A. Blinken with the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky were the problematic situation at the front (the problem does not correspond to the election promises of US President Joe Biden to strengthen Ukraine), preparations for the upcoming Global Peace Summit in Switzerland and personnel changes in the Government of Ukraine, a plan for using the recently allocated US aid package of about 61 billion dollars (calendar, order, and format for receiving aid to Ukraine). The upcoming NATO summit in Washington (July 9 to 11, 2024) was also discussed. Since Ukraine is expected not to receive an invitation to the Alliance again, a specific compensatory mechanism will be developed. As part of this, a draft of a bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the United States was discussed (following the example of the accords already concluded between Ukraine and some other countries on assisting Ukraine in the event of a new aggression).
Following A. Blinken's visit, it was announced that Ukraine would receive another $2 billion aid package. The Secretary of State noted that the United States is now "intensively focused" on providing Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems and other equipment.
The White House is concerned about further developments at the front and near the city of Kharkiv, in particular, since the situation creates a negative political background for Ukraine and its allies, both in general for the election campaign in the United States (for Joe Biden) and during the elections to the European Parliament (from 6 to June 9, 2024), and preparations for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland (15-16 June). Ukraine is also trying to achieve the presence of US President Joe Biden at the summit.
During the visit, the anti-corruption fight was also discussed. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that Ukraine needs not only to defeat the Russian Federation but also to overcome corruption within the country so as not to "become like Russia." There are rumors that, not publicly, the American side earnestly expressed dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian side regarding the issue of corruption, to the point that if the situation at the front does not improve, Western partners can abdicate their responsibility to their societies by publicly "seeing" the issue of corruption in Ukraine, presenting it as the main reason for the defeats of the Ukrainian troops, and not the delay in assistance from the allies.
Among other things, the visit of the US Secretary of State to Ukraine is an essential geopolitical signal for the PRC and other countries during the visit of the Russian President there. So, in his spare time, Antony Blinken played the guitar part of Neil Young's "Rockin' In The Free World" in the Kyiv bar "Bartender Diktat." Before this, he also had a working lunch with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, D. Kuleba, at the Veterano Pizza pizzeria in the center of Kyiv. This somewhat cheeky behavior of the Secretary of State in Kyiv caused a stormy reaction on social networks. But in fact, nothing is surprising in A. Blinken's behavior. On the eve of the presidential elections in the United States, A. Blinken, on the one hand, played on the "strings of the soul" of American voters. On the other, he "played on the nerves" of Russian President V. Putin on the eve of his momentous visit to the PRC (which began on May 16). This behavior of A. Blinken was supposed to demonstrate that the United States feels confident in Ukraine. And, in particular, to establish the safety of being in Kyiv (the city that V. Putin was going to take in 3 days). Thus, A. Blinken emphasized, both for the American voter, the Ukrainians, and the world community, that the Russian Federation still needs to achieve its primary goals in Ukraine.
American sanctions against Chinese companies also served as an essential negative signal for China from the United States regarding V. Putin's visit and further development of cooperation with the Russian Federation.
So on May 14, the administration of US President Joe Biden announced the introduction of stricter restrictions on imports from China totaling $18 billion. The White House said the tariff hikes encourage China to "reverse its unfair trade practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation." It is clarified that the increase in duties on Chinese goods is aimed at protecting the US market. The new tariffs on Chinese goods will take effect in 90 days, during which time the developments will be closely monitored for signs of retaliation from Beijing. The US decision worsens the already fragile position of the Chinese economy and, therefore, may provoke asymmetric measures on the part of the PRC.
Visit of President V. Putin to the PRC.
On May 16-17, Russian President V. Putin visited the PRC, where he met with the head of the country, Xi Jinping. In general, during the visit, it was clear that V. Putin was trying to win over the Chinese side and demonstrate the success of this visit. However, there was no significant breakthrough in relations between the PRC and the Russian Federation, and the position of the Russian Federation can instead be ingratiating. Likely, the Chinese position was partially influenced by sanctions from the United States, which will worsen as cooperation with the Russian Federation expands, which will have a detrimental effect on the Chinese economy.
The parties signed a joint statement on deepening comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction relations. In the presence of the leaders of the two countries, the Russian and Chinese delegations signed ten joint documents at the level of the Ministry of Economic Development, the Far East Development Ministry, the Ministry of Natural Resources, Rosselkhoznadzor, Rospotrebnadzor, the Business Russia Association, and news agencies. On the Chinese side, the documents were signed by representatives of similar structures of the PRC. Among the agreements signed are the concept for the development of Bolshoy-Ussuriysky Island, protocols on the requirements for products exported to China, a memorandum on holding the BRICS expert forum, agreements on media cooperation, information exchange, and cooperation between business associations.
The joint statement following the meeting stated that:
- In particular, Moscow and Beijing condemned the possible confiscation of Russian assets abroad and declared their right “to take retaliatory measures.”
- Beijing "supports Russia's actions to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, and also opposes outside interference in its affairs."
-It is stated that “for a sustainable resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, it is necessary to eliminate its root causes and take into account the legitimate interests and security concerns of all countries.”
- V. Putin said that both countries are working to create a "multipolar world" and that many approaches to global and regional problems are similar.
- Xi Jinping said China and Russia insist on a "political solution" to the war in Ukraine, while Putin expressed gratitude for "China's efforts to resolve the Ukrainian crisis."
Death of Iranian President E. Raisi.
On May 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, were in the helicopter and also died.
Iran will most likely be temporarily led by Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, a former officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and former head of a foundation that looks after the assets of the Islamic Republic. He promoted a deal to supply Russia with weapons and was a hardliner in relations with the West. According to the Iranian constitution, after the death of the President, the First Vice President assumes temporary leadership. Together with the head of the judiciary and the parliament speaker, they will hold new presidential elections within 50 days.
The death of E. Raisi, as well as the election campaign processes that will follow, will increase competition among Iranian political groups, between conventionally conservative religious and conservative political groups, which may add to Iran's internal political instability.
It is worth noting that the head of Iran is not the President but the Ayatollah, the supreme leader. He is elected for life, determines the country's general policy, leads the army and intelligence, fills the central positions, and makes critical decisions. The President is the second most important official, the head of the executive branch. Many saw E. Raisi was the future successor to the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The death of the President of Iran increases the chances that Ayatollah A. Khamenei's successor will be his son.
However, in general, one can only count on a sharp change in Iran's course if significant destabilization occurs in the country. The new Iranian leadership will continue the previous line of confrontation with the West (USA and Israel), as well as cooperation with the PRC and the Russian Federation.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
