Russian invasion: 100 days of war in Ukraine

From the point of view of the first 100 days of the war, the tactical advantage remained with Ukraine and its partners. Russia was unable to use the effect of surprise and the most prepared part of its army to achieve a quick surrender of Ukraine. But the strategically Ukrainian state, economy and armed forces suffered a lot of damage, which will definitely have a negative impact on Ukrainian opportunities in the future. The Russian Federation also managed to revive NATO and consolidate the "Western world" around the United States, provoke an unprecedented wave of sanctions against itself, but the ghosts of the energy and food crises, the geopolitical diversity of the world, do not allow the West to completely isolate and quickly destroy Russia.

It must be understood that the Ukrainian-Russian war is also a part of the global confrontation between the United States and its allies and Russia and its allies for the right and rules to determine the new world order. This is how this war is perceived by all global states.

With their invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Federation planned to break the old world order, in which key international political, financial, trade institutions are under the control of the United States and Western partners. She did not achieve her goals, but she did not abandon them either.

The war itself has entered a protracted phase to exhaustion, in which the consolidation of Ukrainian society and the readiness to endure various hardships and crises, primarily of an energy, food and price nature, will play a key role.

Now the war in Ukraine can end only when one of the participants in the war wins or all sides of the war will be convinced of the impossibility of victory. If we talk about the dates of the end of the Ukrainian-Russian stage of this global confrontation, then it can last up to 1,5-3 years. And depending on the results of the war (victory or defeat of Russia), it can transform into even greater destabilization in Europe or in Russia. The results of this war will also be a global political reformatting, the formation of new political, economic and military alliances (and the strengthening of old ones) in the world, food and energy crises, waves of refugees, the destruction of Ukraine and hundreds of thousands of victims, accelerating military technological and energy progress.

The war has already caused enormous damage to the global economy and individual countries. Ukraine suffered the most damage. According to various estimates, 30% of the economy has been lost to date. The forecast for a decline in GDP is 30-45%. Direct losses already exceed $600 billion. According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, this year Ukraine's GDP losses will amount to at least $112 billion, by 2030 - approximately $1.2 trillion. At the same time, spending on social needs, humanitarian needs, and demining has increased. Now Ukraine needs budget support in the amount of up to $5 - $7 billions monthly.

Russia itself also bears significant losses. By March 7, 2022, Russia became the world leader in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing Iran. Western sanctions blocked Russia's access to a significant part of its gold and foreign exchange reserves. On April 5, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss announced that the West had frozen $350 billions of Russia's foreign exchange reserves (more than 60%). According to unverified data, Russia's war could cost up to $20 billions a day. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted a fall in Russian GDP by 10% by the end of 2022. Accordingly, the level of Russia's nominal GDP in 2022 will decrease from $1.7 trillion (in 2021) to - $1.53 trillion.

As a result of the war, world GDP may lose 1% - this is about $ 1 trillion, taking into account the fact that the world economy in 2021 rose to $94 trillions. In addition, the global inflation rate will increase by 2%. The cost of raw materials is rising sharply on world stock exchanges. Already, the price of oil has approached its historical record of $124 per barrel of Brent, and EU spending on imports of oil and petroleum products this year could reach 420-430 billions euros, which is 180-190 billions euros more than in 2021. Together with gas imports, EU spending could reach 750 billion euros (+360 billion compared to last year).

In addition, the war in Ukraine contributes to the deterioration of food security. At the moment, about 1.5 million tons of grain are blocked in the ports of Ukraine. In total, about 20 million tons of grain of the old crop must be taken out of Ukraine. Developing countries, which are more dependent on food imports, are expected to suffer the most from the food crisis. According to the UN, the world's wheat stocks are left for 10 weeks. If the “bread truce” that some Western countries, Turkey and China are trying to implement today, does not work, then the war can lead to a significant increase in food prices, hunger, political destabilization, waves of refugees from Africa and the Middle East. The impact will be strongest in North Africa, Egypt and Tunisia, as their dependence on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia is highest.

The very fact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an unprecedented example for other countries regarding the possibility and expediency or inexpediency of solving their foreign policy problems by armed tools. Russia tried to cross out the old world order. Bring back the world during the Second World War, before the creation of the United Nations. And the formation of an appropriate architecture of international agreements. In the modern world, this causes additional risks and threats of a nuclear collision. In fact, the world has entered a regime that anticipates a possible third world war, on the threshold of which the world stands today. And we can state that for Ukraine this war has become Patriotic, and for the world, in fact, a third world, hybrid war is going on. This war is geopolitical in nature. It can end at any moment, as soon as the Kremlin decides or some new geopolitical balance is reached, or it can continue for decades. Russia is trying through Ukraine to force the West, primarily the US and Great Britain, to agree to a new division of the world. And the West and the United States are trying to deplete Russia as much as possible. To create conditions for an internal crisis in this country and through the defeat and division of Russia, the division of its richest resources, to solve the global problems of the crisis in the world economy. At the same time, the war is pushing military-technological progress, pushing the transition to a green economy. It actually became a trigger for the formation of new economic and military blocs. To some extent, this plays into the hands of the developing countries of Southeast Asia.

In general, Russia's war against Ukraine did not achieve its goals - the surrender of the Ukrainian government. This is a tactical Ukrainian victory, but not yet a strategic Russian defeat. After all, Russia has not yet abandoned these goals and continues to try to achieve them by a war of attrition. Perhaps the war is just beginning and can last for a very long time. Now not only the army, but also the economy and social stability come to the first place.

There are several lessons to be learned for militaries around the world in the face of modern warfare. The first lesson is that resolving international conflicts by military means is inefficient, expensive, and dangerous. The second lesson is that the current architecture of world security and international relations is absolutely ineffective - it is ignored by large and strong states, it cannot protect the weak and even itself. It needs to be modernized. The third lesson is that the war in Ukraine, as well as the wars in Afghanistan or Yemen, show that despite the huge military-technical progress, the morale of the army and society is often the key factor in victory. And even in the face of a much more technologically advanced enemy, a consolidated army and society can prevail. And the fourth - we are all on the globe very dependent on each other despite the distances between us. And even if the war happened in Syria or Ukraine, its food, energy and other consequences will be felt by peoples and states around the world. We no longer have national or regional problems - all people's problems are global. And we all need to think together how to solve them.

Ruslan Bortnik, Director of UIP