Авторы публикации
ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK
06.12.- 12.12.2021
CONTENT:
SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.
INTERNAL POLICY.
1. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy registered in the Verkhovna Rada bills on the introduction of an economic passport.
2. Statement by Defense Minister A. Reznikov that Ukraine should, in fact, become part of NATO.
3. The United States imposed sanctions against the head of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine A. Tupitsky, who was dismissed by V. Zelensky.
4. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has criticized the sanctions against the Ukrainian media, which are imposed by the NSDC decisions.
FOREIGN POLICY.
1. Joe Biden's talks with Vladimir Putin.
2. Olaf Scholz officially became the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.
3. Visit of Vladimir Putin to India.
ECONOMY.
1. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.
2. Beginning of work of BEB. Business risks.
3. Increase in expenses for construction and reconstruction of roads.
4. Employees of enterprises of "large privatization" will receive funded pensions.
SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.
Summarizing the political results of the week, we note the following:
Firstly , this week, in order to stabilize the falling ratings, President V. Zelensky registered bills on the introduction of an economic passport with the Verkhovna Rada. They were part of his campaign program. If these bills are passed, the first payments to persons who have reached the age of majority will begin in 2037.
Secondly , the US sanctions against A. Tupitsky and A. Portnov continue the trend towards confrontation between Western partners, the president and the judiciary for influence on the country's judicial system. Western pressure is being put on those figures who, according to the United States, potentially hinder the reboot of the judiciary and the establishment of control over the work of the Ukrainian judicial system by “international experts”.
Thirdly , the statements of Defense Minister A. Reznikov about integration into NATO "de facto", through the expansion of cooperation, as well as the desire to deploy Western military instructors in positions near the contact line - this is a call to the fact that Russian top officials, including Vladimir Putin, for half a year they have been consistently designated as a "red line", namely, the military development of the territory of Ukraine by NATO countries. Thus, it is not surprising that the West considered this statement of A. Reznikov provocative and publicly refused to follow the tactics voiced in it.
Fourth , regular talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin took place this week. They never brought a full-fledged "detente" between the parties. The geostrategic situation in Eastern Europe remains extremely tense. The United States continues to declare the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia continues to declare Kiev's intention to return the uncontrolled territories of Donbass by force. Nevertheless, there are still some results of the talks between the Russian and American leaders. These include the US refusal to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream 2, as well as a temporary freeze on the provision of the next tranche of military aid for Ukraine. However, these decisions can be quickly played back.
Fifth , another interesting trend was demonstrated by the recent visit of Vladimir Putin to India, where the leaders of the two countries signed a number of important agreements. Against the background of the rapprochement between New Delhi and Washington in recent months, the warm welcome of the Russian president and the conclusion of agreements with him, including on the supply of arms, looks like an attempt by the Indian side to adhere to its traditional "multi-vector" policy, balancing contacts with the United States with interaction with the Russian Federation ...
Sixth , the current management of Ukraine's energy sector at the state and private levels does not correspond to national interests and the very concept of energy security. Ukraine is reducing the production of natural gas, the import of which has risen in price by 4 times from November 2020 to November 2021. The energy sector of our country is also becoming a field of confrontation between the authorities and big business, where I. Kolomoisky receives preferences, and R. Akhmetov and K. Zhevago - fines. The risk of using energy for political purposes is increasing, namely, to put pressure on political opponents.
Seventh , the state's course towards total fiscalization is causing resistance from society and private business. It is reflected in the growth of the shadow economy, which, in turn, mitigated the consequences of the fall in the official economy in 2014 and 2020.
Eighth , the government's decision to oblige participants in large privatization to donate more funds to a private pension fund for employees of privatized enterprises can serve as the basis for the formation of the country's infrastructure for TNCs, where both the privatization of water utilities for the opening of the land market for foreigners in 2024, and funded pensions for employees privatized large enterprises serve a common goal - the formation of the most efficient service model and the use of the country's key resources in the interests of TNCs. Thus, the population of the country will be divided into service personnel of TNCs and everyone else.
INTERNAL POLICY.
Briefly :
This week, in order to stabilize the falling ratings, President V. Zelensky registered in the Verkhovna Rada bills on the introduction of an economic passport. They were part of his campaign program. If these bills are passed, the first payments to persons who have reached the age of majority will begin in 2037.
The US sanctions against A. Tupitsky, as well as A. Portnov, continue the trend towards confrontation between Western partners, the president and the judiciary for influence on the country's judicial system. Western pressure is being put on those figures who, according to the United States, potentially hinder the reboot of the judiciary and the establishment of control over the work of the Ukrainian judicial system by “international experts”.
Defense Minister A. Reznikov's statements on de facto integration into NATO through increased cooperation, as well as on the deployment of Western military instructors in positions near the contact line, are a call for Russian top officials, including Vladimir Putin, for six months consistently designated as a "red line", namely - the military development of the territory of Ukraine by NATO countries. Thus, it is not surprising that the West considered this statement of A. Reznikov provocative and publicly refused to follow the tactics voiced in it.
1. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy registered in the Verkhovna Rada bills on the introduction of an economic passport .
This week, President V. Zelensky registered in the Verkhovna Rada bills on the introduction of an economic passport, which provide for the creation of a Fund for Future Generations. The first bill concerns directly the economic passport and its legislative consolidation. The second document proposes to amend the Budget Code in terms of government contributions to the economic passport system.
According to the Speaker of the Parliament R. Stefanchuk, the Verkhovna Rada will not have time to consider the draft law on the economic passport of Ukrainian citizens until the end of 2021. [1] . According to the plan, in Ukraine already in 2021 they planned to open accounts for newborns. Until the age of 18, they should have received money - 1% from the sale of minerals.
It is calculated that upon reaching the age of majority, the child should have about 10 thousand dollars in the equivalent in hryvnia, taking into account inflation. According to Deputy D. Getmantsev, it is possible that such an opportunity will be provided to children born in 2019. [2]
After a citizen of Ukraine reaches the age of majority, these payments can be used for[3] :
1) training in educational institutions of Ukraine;
2) buying your own home in Ukraine;
H) transfer of funds to your account in the non-state pension system;
4) treatment.
Until the age of 18, children will be able to receive funds from the fund only for the treatment of serious and critical diseases.
According to the bill, the Future Generations Fund will start operating in 2023. The first annual state contribution in 2023 will amount to UAH 21.8 billion based on the 2 minimum wages (UAH 7,176) and projected birth rate statistics, in 2037 (at the time of the first payments) the fund will amount to UAH 1,832 billion for the account of government contributions and the received investment income from the placement of funds in government securities. This will make it possible to make payments totaling 191 billion hryvnia at the rate of 626 125 hryvnia per member of the Fund.
It is not excluded that the topic of the economic passport has arisen right now in connection with the drop in the ratings of the authorities. V. Zelensky promised economic passports in his 2019 election program . In addition, when V. Zelensky began to impose sanctions against companies that are developing subsoil, one of the rationales for his actions was the idea of an economic passport. As well as the adoption of tax law 5600, which increases the rent for the use of natural resources of Ukraine, according to the president : " These funds, payment for the use of our Ukrainian subsoil, will accumulate on the personal accounts of children - citizens of Ukraine ." “ Our oligarchs will become real investors in the future of our children, ” Zelensky added.
At the same time, the first payments will be made in 2037, when the team of V. Zelensky will no longer be in power and there will be no one to answer to citizens for the implementation of the idea of an economic passport.
2. Statement by Defense Minister A. Reznikov that Ukraine should, in fact, become part of NATO.
Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said this week that Ukraine should integrate de facto into NATO through increased cooperation: “ I understand that Ukraine's accession to NATO is a political decision based on the consensus of 30 countries. And someday this decision will be made. My colleague Dmitry Kuleba recently said that 3 countries are not ready yet. But while the decision is being formed, one should not wait . "[4]
For example, in his opinion, the United States, Canada and Britain could send more of their military instructors to Ukraine and place them in positions near the front line where Russia can see them.[5] .
A. Reznikov's public request to Canada, the United States and Great Britain to support Ukraine outside NATO came two days after his meeting with the Chief of the General Staff of Canada, General Wayne Eyre, who visited Kiev. A. Reznikov also said that he had a conversation with Defense Minister Anita Anand, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
At the same time, Canada has no plans to strengthen its military mission in Ukraine amid fears of provoking Russia into aggressive actions. General Eyre believes that any new Canadian or Western military support for Ukraine can provoke, not contain V. Putin. [6]
A. Reznikov's statements are an attempt to attract Western partners to more active defense of Ukraine and presence on the territory of the country. In fact, he called for precisely what Russian top officials, including Vladimir Putin, have consistently designated as the "red line" for six months, namely, the military development of the territory of Ukraine by NATO countries. Thus, it is not surprising that the West considered this statement of A. Reznikov provocative and publicly refused to follow the tactics voiced in it.
In this situation, Kiev receives only formal assistance from the North Atlantic Alliance, while NATO has no real obligations to Ukraine.
3. The United States imposed sanctions against the head of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine A. Tupitsky, who was dismissed by V. Zelensky.
December 9, International Anti-Corruption Day, the US State Department imposed sanctions against the former head of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine A. Tupitsky [7] . His wife Olga also fell under the sanctions. The sanctions against the Tupitskys include a ban on entry into the United States, this also applies to their family members. Let us recall that in relation to A. Tupitsky, the trials are now ongoing and after his removal, he can still be reinstated in office. On July 14, 2021, the Administrative Court of Cassation within the Supreme Court declared illegal the presidential decree, which prematurely terminated the powers of two judges of the Constitutional Court - Alexander Tupitsky and Alexander Kasminin.
Along with this, the United States imposed sanctions against the former Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of the Yanukovych era, Andrey Portnov, and his charitable foundation.[8] .
The US sanctions against A. Tupitsky, as well as A. Portnov, continue to confront Western partners, the president and the judiciary for influence on the country's judicial system.
The US State Department makes it clear to all parties to the conflict that it expects the implementation of judicial reform in Ukraine on the Western model. Accordingly, pressure from the United States comes under pressure from those figures that potentially prevent a reboot of the judiciary and control over the work of the Ukrainian judicial system. Both A. Tupitsky and A. Portnov are accused of influencing the judicial system by structures associated with Western partners.
At the same time, it is possible that the sanctions against A. Tupitsky were also agreed with Bankova, where the judiciary is accused of disrupting the judicial reform. The head of the President's Office Andriy Yermak said that the US sanctions against the head of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine A. Tupitsky were introduced allegedly because he interfered with the authorities to carry out reforms [9] .
Perhaps, in this indirect way, with the help of the United States, the President's Office manages to strike back at the KSU, after it refused to swear in new judges under the presidential quota instead of the dismissed A. Tupitsky and A. Kasminin.
4. The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has criticized the sanctions against the Ukrainian media, which are imposed by the NSDC decisions.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), this week, released a special report on the situation in Ukraine[10] .
In particular, OHCHR criticized the NSDC sanctions.
It is noted that the sanctions against a number of companies and individuals established by the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and introduced by the President of Ukraine in 2021, which, in fact, closed three television channels and blocked access to the Internet, negatively affected the freedom of opinion and expression. publications considered by many to be opposition or pro-Russian media sources.
International human rights law requires such restrictions to be necessary, proportionate and set by an independent body. While the decisions on the sanctions were made by the executive branch headed by the President. The text of the decrees does not contain any reasoning for the imposition of sanctions, in particular, they do not mention specific security considerations and do not explain how specific sanctions would solve these problems and why less severe sanctions would not be effective.
Thus, these decisions did not demonstrate compliance with international norms regarding the necessity and proportionality of restrictions on freedom of expression.
In addition, OHCHR is concerned that the lack of a clear rationale for these sanctions may contribute to self-censorship by the media to avoid coverage of sensitive topics that might be perceived as relating to national security issues.
FOREIGN POLICY.
Briefly:
This week, regular talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin took place. They never brought a full-fledged "detente" between the parties. The geostrategic situation in Eastern Europe remains extremely tense. The United States continues to declare the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia continues to declare Kiev's intention to return the uncontrolled territories of Donbass by force. Nevertheless, there are still some results of the talks between the Russian and American leaders. These include the US refusal to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream 2, as well as a temporary freeze on the provision of the next tranche of military aid for Ukraine. However, these decisions can be quickly played back.
Another interesting trend was demonstrated by the recent visit of Vladimir Putin to India, where the leaders of the two countries signed a number of important agreements. Against the background of the rapprochement between New Delhi and Washington in recent months, the warm welcome of the Russian president and the conclusion of agreements with him, including on the supply of arms, looks like an attempt by the Indian side to adhere to its traditional "multi-vector" policy, balancing contacts with the United States with interaction with the Russian Federation ...
1. Joe Biden's talks with Vladimir Putin.
The most discussed topic of this week was the talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, which took place on December 7 via video link.
According to their results, the most significant were three statements.
First, Biden's statement that the Americans, in the event of an aggravation, will not fight for Ukraine.
Second, Biden's statement that NATO is ready to discuss with Russia its concerns about the alliance's actions.
Third, Russia's statement that the members of the Normandy Four are not opposed to the United States joining it[11] .
All three statements are related.
The accession of the Americans directly to the negotiations on Ukraine is beneficial to Russia, since Washington still exerts the most direct influence on the situation, but, not being a participant in any negotiation formats, it bears absolutely no responsibility for the outcome of the peace settlement process.
Biden's statement about his unwillingness to fight for Ukraine, according to one version, demonstrates to Kiev the need to show flexibility in negotiations and to comply with Minsk in order to avoid a war. According to another version, to which we are inclined, these words of the American president are nothing more than a rhetorical device aimed at preparing for further negotiations with Russia. Most likely, they will not entail any practical consequences, even despite the announced visit to Kiev and Moscow of the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, which will take place on December 15-16.
Also, in our opinion, one should not interpret Biden's words about "readiness to discuss with Russia its concern about NATO expansion" as a readiness to give guarantees of non-expansion of the military-political bloc, which Moscow is asking for.
In its policy towards Russia, the United States is guided by the rule that at one time was most succinctly formulated by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill: - "Diplomacy is to pet the dog until the muzzle is ready."
With regard to the situation in Eastern Europe, this means that the Biden administration will try to speak to the Russian leadership until the creeping military development of the region by NATO countries finally shifts the geostrategic balance in it in favor of the United States. At least, these are the plans of the American leadership.
However, it would be foolish to believe that Moscow does not know about them and does not prepare an adequate answer.
As we wrote earlier, in addition to requests for guarantees of non-expansion of NATO to the East (which the United States, of course, will not provide), Russia is preparing its own symmetrical and asymmetric responses to the build-up of American military power in the region. These responses include the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory, equipping Russian nuclear submarines with hypersonic nuclear missiles, and the ever-present possibility of military intervention in Ukraine.
When asked after his meeting with Biden about whether Russia was going to "attack Ukraine", the Russian president replied, quote:
“This is a provocative question. Russia is pursuing a peace-loving foreign policy, but it has the right to ensure its security, "and added that this is both a medium-term and a more distant prospect.
In fact, the continuation of the confrontation against the background of the continuation of the dialogue is the main conclusion from the talks between the Russian and American presidents held this week.
2. Olaf Scholz officially became the Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.
On Wednesday, Olaf Scholz was sworn in as Germany's new chancellor, ending Angela Merkel's four terms at the helm of Europe's largest economy.
Scholz, leader of the Social Democratic Party, as expected, won a secret ballot in parliament that culminated in months of negotiations following the SPD's victory by a narrow margin in the September federal elections. [12] .
After the protocol ceremonies, Scholz went to the President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who officially appointed him as the country's new chancellor. He was then sworn in in parliament.
A 63-year-old SPD member who has never changed his party affiliation in his career, Scholz served as Minister of Labor and Social Policy in the first coalition government of Merkel in the late 2000s. In 2011, he was elected Mayor of Hamburg and held this position with great support until 2018.
Since then, he has served as vice-chancellor and finance minister in Merkel's large coalition government, playing an important role in German domestic politics.
His political style is no different from that of his former boss - they are similar in many ways, despite the fact that they belong to rival parties.
Scholz, who has formed a three-party coalition with big-business Greens and Free Democrats, is positioning himself as a pragmatist. He is considered moderate and centrist, which made him somewhat special within his party.
"It seems that Scholz owes part of his electoral success to the fact that during the campaign he portrayed himself as a worthy heir to Merkel, calm and humble - and with arms crossed in a Merkel-style rhombus in a photograph that went viral," Holger wrote. Schmiding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank.
This imitation is probably the best compliment he could give the ex-chancellor. Despite some ups and downs during her long reign, Merkel is stepping down as the most popular politician in the country, receiving 69% of the vote.
We did not accidentally mention the biography of Olaf Scholz and his attempts to copy the style of Angela Merkel. These circumstances are intended to demonstrate that, contrary to the hopes of individual politicians in Ukraine, after the change of government in Germany, the basic principles of its foreign policy will remain the same.
And all because they are conditioned by objective national interests, and not by party programs. Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party, as well as Angela Merkel, support the launch of Nord Stream 2, which will allow Germany to earn money by reselling gas on European markets. On the issue of resolving the conflict in Donbass, the position of the new German government, most likely, will also not differ from the position of the Merkel government. Its main elements are calls for the implementation of the Minsk agreements, combined with declarative statements of support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
In general, the recent elections and the subsequent change of government in Germany teach us how a civilized change of power can take place. Without sharp shocks and crisis situations, in which the arrival of new politicians in government offices is perceived as uncertainty and almost an apocalypse.
3. Visit of Vladimir Putin to India.
One of the important international events of the outgoing week was the visit of Vladimir Putin to India.
In the course of it, the President of the Russian Federation agreed on the development of Russian-Indian relations in a number of areas, in particular, in the economy, energy, military sphere and security, science and technology, culture and humanitarian interaction. Participants in the Russian-Indian summit "highly appreciated the steady dynamics of strengthening bilateral relations, despite the negative consequences of the ongoing pandemic of the novel coronavirus infection," said a joint statement published on the Kremlin's website on Monday, December 6.[13] .
During a 3.5-hour meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Putin announced joint military exercises and deepening defense cooperation. In particular, on the same day, an agreement was signed between the governments of the two countries on a program of military-technical cooperation from 2021 to 2030, providing for the interaction of troops, the supply and development of weapons and military equipment.
"The parties confirmed their interest in further building up cooperation in the field of digital technologies, including in the field of information protection, security of critical infrastructure and maintenance of law and order," the Kremlin said in a statement. In addition, representatives of the two countries promised to promote cooperation in the development of software, platforms and services, as well as in the production of electronics.
The joint statement also notes the need to speed up customs procedures and optimize the clearance of imported goods. Both parties pointed out the need for mutual recognition of authorized economic operators and the conclusion of a memorandum of understanding on the exchange and preliminary submission of customs data. The corresponding agreements will be discussed in the near future.
In addition, India intends to expand trade and increase investment in the Russian Far East. "The parties agree to continue discussions on the implementation of a $ 1 billion credit line for development projects in the Russian Far East, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2019," the statement said. India also expressed its readiness to allocate a second site for the construction of a nuclear power plant according to the Russian project.
At the same time, the Indian authorities announced their interest in oil supplies from Russia under long-term contracts and preferential prices and an increase in imports of liquefied natural gas along the Northern Sea Route. In addition, both sides intend to continue cooperation in the gas sector, in particular, to invest in gas infrastructure and distribution systems, as well as the use of gas in the transport sector.
However, the most interesting thing about Putin's visit to India was, of course, not the agreements of an economic nature, but its geopolitical context.
The fact is that India plays a key role in Washington's plans to institutionalize the so-called "containment of China" in South and Southeast Asia. Delhi participates in the "Quadripartite Security Dialogue" - QUAD, which includes the United States, Australia and Japan. Recently, from a number of American experts one could also hear an opinion about Washington's desire to connect Delhi to the new military-political bloc AUUKUS, which the Americans created together with the Australians and the British to counter China.
But to argue that India is ready to throw itself headlong into Washington's arms would be too naive. Indian politics is famous for its decades-old tradition of non-alignment with military-political blocs. In Delhi, they represent the choice of one of the major foreign policy partners as a prejudice to their interests.
Presumably, it is for this reason that Narendra Modi willingly accepted Vladimir Putin and entered into substantive agreements with him on a number of economic issues. India, traditionally for itself, is trying to balance the American vector of its foreign policy with the Russian one.
ECONOMY
Briefly:
The current management of the energy sector in Ukraine at the state and private levels does not correspond to national interests and the very concept of energy security. Ukraine is reducing the production of natural gas, the import of which has risen in price by 4 times from November 2020 to November 2021. The energy sector of our country is also becoming a field of confrontation between the authorities and big business, where I. Kolomoisky receives preferences, and R. Akhmetov and K. Zhevago - fines. The risk of using energy for political purposes is increasing, namely, to put pressure on political opponents.
The state's course towards total fiscalization provokes resistance from society and private business. It is reflected in the growth of the shadow economy, which, in turn, mitigated the consequences of the fall in the official economy in 2014 and 2020.
The government's decision to oblige participants in large privatization to allocate more funds to a private pension fund for employees of privatized enterprises can serve as the basis for the formation of the country's infrastructure for TNCs, where both the privatization of water utilities for the opening of the land market for foreigners in 2024, and funded pensions for employees of privatized large enterprises serve a common goal - the formation of the most efficient model of service and use of the country's key resources in the interests of TNCs. Thus, the population of the country will be divided into service personnel of TNCs and everyone else.
- The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.
Ukraine is cutting its own gas production amid rising prices in the world and Europe. Thus, Ukraine will overpay at least $ 2 billion for imported gas in 2019-2021 instead of using its own gas. Aleksey Kucherenko also recalls that in the fall of 2021, the government withdrew UAH 50 billion from Naftogaz for Bolshoi Construction. As of December 7, 2021, there are 15.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the Ukrainian underground storage facilities. This is the lowest figure since 2014. Moreover, 1.1 billion cubic meters of gas in the UGS facility is being prepared for pumping abroad. Another 1 billion cubic meters of gas in the UGS facility will be received by I. Kolomoisky, despite the opposite decision of the Stockholm Arbitration regarding the “controversial” gas of Ukrnafta in 2006-2007. The businessman will receive gas precisely during the period of high prices. This leaves the state with 13.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
On December 6, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine on its official website published information on the cost of imported gas as of November 2021, namely, over $ 730 per 1,000 cubic meters.[15] . As of November 2020, the gas price was $ 182.5[16] USA per thousand cubic meters - 4 times less .
On November 3, the economic court of the Kiev region partially satisfied the claim of "Naftogaz" against the PJSC "Belotserkovskaya thermal power plant" and decided to recover from the defendant in favor of the plaintiff UAH 298 million. gas debts[17] "Belotserkovskaya CHPP" is associated with Konstantin Zhevago.
On November 3, the economic court of Donetsk region satisfied Naftogaz's claim against DTEK Vostokenergo LLC and decided to recover UAH 148.75 million from the defendant in favor of the plaintiff. debts for gas supplied in September 2019[18] .
Burshtynskaya TPP, part of the DTEK holding, exports electricity to the EU, despite the extremely low reserves of its own coal[19] . According to the Ministry of Energy, coal reserves at Burshtynskaya TPP as of December 7 are 14.6 thousand tons, with the minimum required reserves of 161 thousand tons. DTEK imports up to 80 thousand tons of coal monthly from Poland, and expects to receive another 450 thousand tons of coal by sea in December-January, although so far only two ships have arrived with 60-66 thousand tons of coal on board. Even these volumes may not be enough for a confident passage of the heating season, because coal reserves in Ukraine make up only 44% of the required minimum reserve.
On December 10, General Director of the Gas Transportation System Operator (OGTSU) Sergei Makogon, in an interview with Business.Censor, suggested that the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine could stop as early as the heating season of 2021/22[21] .
Beginning of work of BEB. Business risks .
On November 25, the Bureau of Economic Security started working without having its own building, because of which the employees of the newly formed structure were forced to hold a meeting on the street.[22] . According to government reports, the BEB headquarters is staffed by 30%. This is enough to launch the analytical and law enforcement functions of the bureau. Most likely, BEB will repeat the fate of other newly formed structures, starting in 2014, such as NABU and NAPK.
There were high hopes that after the launch of the BEB, the constant pressure from a significant number of law enforcement agencies on entrepreneurs will stop, and the country will come to a civilized model of interaction between the state and business, where both parties are partners. It is the shadow economy that is often, among other things, a compensator for the ineffective and hostile economic policy of the authorities in relation to the official part of the economy, and also mitigates the consequences of economic crises. For example, as in 2014 and 2020 - when, with a sharp fall in the official economy, the shadow economy increased, which smoothed out the fall of the economy from minus 6.6% to minus 1.1% in 2014 and from minus 4% to minus 1.7% in 2020[23] (see Fig. 3.).
Recently, for the first time, EU auditors officially called Ukraine state capture, that is, a "captured state", where institutions serve private interests and are engaged in the enrichment of individuals.
- Increase in expenses for road construction and reconstruction .
On December 8, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on its official website published information on the amount of infrastructure financing in 2022 from the state budget, namely, in the amount of $ 141.8 billion.[24] UAH.
On December 8, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a law amending the 2021 state budget (bill No. 6298), which provides for an increase in budget expenditures by almost UAH 50 billion. - in particular, UAH 19 billion. will be sent to the roads[25] .
- Employees of large privatization enterprises will receive funded pensions.
On December 9, the government approved a pilot project according to which employees of large-scale privatization enterprises will switch to a funded pension system.[26] . "An investor who will buy such a state-owned facility will, within 2 years after privatization, pay contributions to a non-state pension fund for more than half of the company's employees," Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said. These requirements will be included in the privatization conditions for future properties. Contributions will be at least 4% of the salary. Shmyhal added that this will be "one of the first steps towards the full implementation of a funded pension system for all Ukrainians." "Bolshevik" became the first object of large-scale privatization in Ukraine in 16 years. The next object should be the United Mining and Chemical Company, the auction for which is scheduled for December 20.
Edited by:
Ruslan Bortnik,
Daniil Bogatyrev.
Authors:
Daniil Bogatyrev,
Oksana Krasovskaya,
Andrey Timchenko.
