Analytical review of the week No. 137 of 31.10.2021.

Авторы публикации

Красовська Оксана Володимирівна

Ruslan Bortnik

Аналитический обзор недели №137 от 31.10.2021г.

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

25.10.- 31.10.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Aggravation of hostilities in one of the sections of the contact line in the Donbass.

2. The situation with the coronavirus in Ukraine.

3. Former head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, People's Deputy Dmitry Razumkov announced his intention to create and lead a new political force.

4. Sociology. New polls confirm the downward trend in government ratings.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Ukraine has offered Russia a discount on the transit of additional gas volumes to the EU.

2. Information campaign of the US Democratic Party against the social network Facebook.

3. Military coup in Sudan.

ECONOMY.

1. The number of debtors in the state register increased by 60%.

2. Catering in the "red zone" lost 22% of its profit in the first week.

3. Ukraine received 600 million euros of macro-financial assistance from the European Union.

4. For the first time Moldova bought a million cubic meters of gas from Poland, not Russia.

5. Ukraine will start importing electricity from Belarus on November 1.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First , the escalation of the conflict in Donbass for the Office of the President can serve as an opportunity to divert public attention from the difficult socio-economic situation in the country, the problems of coronavirus and offshore scandals. In addition, the demonstration of an uncompromising position and the use of the Bayraktar drone should contribute to the formation of the image of V. Zelensky as an "uncompromising fighter against Russia."

Secondly , Dmitry Razumkov announced his intention to create and lead a new political force. In this regard, one can expect that the Office of the President will wage an active information war against the ex-speaker, as against the main political rival of V. Zelensky.

Thirdly , the rise in gas prices and the shortage of gas on the European market continues to be a political factor. This week, Ukraine tried to capitalize on it in the form of more filling of its gas transportation system, offering Russia a 50% discount on pumping additional volumes of gas. However, Moscow was not particularly interested in this proposal. They are now more interested in the early launch of Nord Stream 2.

Fourthly , another important trend is the struggle of the top of the US Democratic Party against Facebook. Over the past week, the leading American media published more than 10 publications exposing the social network, and its director Mark Zuckerberg and his wife were accused of sexual harassment. The persecution unleashed in the United States against Facebook is the result of the reluctance of the traditional elites of the Democratic Party, oriented towards the financial circles of American capital, to share power with the so-called digitalists, who in recent years have gained a particularly strong influence on the processes in society and are now trying to convert it into power.

Fifth , in the cold season, Ukrainian society and, accordingly, the Ukrainian government are exposed to additional risks, such as the quality of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic, a drop in the profits of service establishments, which means a growing risk of bankruptcies and unemployment, as well as a possible fall in tax payments in budget. In such conditions, carrying out total fiscalization becomes even more dangerous both from the point of view of the economy and from the point of view of the government's ratings.

Sixth , the European Commission provides loans to Ukraine subject to the fulfillment of the IMF's requirements, even in the midst of the coronavirus epidemic. Ukraine must still continue to carry out reforms in order to receive loans not only from the IMF itself, but also from the European Commission.

Seventh , over the past two years, Ukraine has become extremely dependent and vulnerable from its relations with Russia and Belarus in terms of stable electricity supplies in the cold season from these countries.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

This week, a new sociology survey confirmed the trend of decreasing government ratings.

The escalation of the conflict in Donbass for the Office of the President may serve as an opportunity to divert public attention from the difficult socio-economic situation in the country, the problems of coronavirus and offshore scandals. In addition, the demonstration of an irreconcilable position and the use of the Bayraktar drone should contribute to the formation of the image of V. Zelensky as an "uncompromising fighter against Russia."

Dmitry Razumkov announced his intention to create and lead a new political force. In this regard, one can expect that the Office of the President will wage an active information war against the ex-speaker , as against the main political rival of V. Zelensky.

1. Aggravation of hostilities in one of the sections of the contact line in the Donbass.

On Tuesday, October 26, a number of media outlets disseminated information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had returned control of the village of Staromaryevka in the Donetsk region.[1] . The press service of the headquarters of the Joint Forces Operation (JF) called these statements disinformation, stating that the positions of the Ukrainian military remain unchanged. At the same time, the JFO headquarters confirmed that by order of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, Lieutenant-General Valery Zaluzhny , the Bayraktar reconnaissance and strike unmanned system was used for the first time in the JFO area .

The use of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "Bayraktarov" prompted France and Germany to criticize the actions of Ukraine.[2] In particular, the representative of the French Foreign Ministry stressed that these events contradict the measures to consolidate the ceasefire, which entered into force on July 27, 2020. The Ukrainian side responded to the criticism quite sharply. Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk categorically rejected the concern of the German Foreign Ministry and asked to " put Moscow in its place " [3] .

In Russia, so far, they have limited themselves to expressing regrets due to the destabilization of the situation in the region, including through the use of a Turkish drone by Ukraine.

US calls on allies to lift restrictions on armed support for Ukraine[4] . That is, the role of Ukraine as an irritant to Russian-European relations is currently acceptable to the Americans.

Recently, the intensity of mutual or unilateral attacks between Ukraine and the "LPNR" has increased markedly. In fact, the settlement of the conflict is frozen, the work of the trilateral subgroup on this issue is at a standstill, of which the parties accuse each other.

On the other hand, a new escalation of the conflict for the Ukrainian authorities may serve as an opportunity to divert public attention from the difficult socio-economic situation in the country, the problems of coronavirus and offshore scandals. In addition, the demonstration of an uncompromising position and the use of the Bayraktar drone, according to the OP, should contribute to the formation of the image of V. Zelensky as an "uncompromising fighter against Russia." This positioning is designed for the nationalist-minded layers of the electorate.

2. The situation with the coronavirus in Ukraine.

The situation with the spread of coronavirus in the country is rapidly deteriorating. This week in Ukraine, almost 27 thousand new cases of coronavirus were confirmed per day, more than 5 thousand patients were hospitalized per day, and the death rate reached up to 700 people per day - this is the largest number for the entire pandemic. [5] . Most of all new infections are in the Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa regions and Kiev.

At the same time, the level of vaccination in Ukraine remains quite low - about 18% of the population. In total, up to 17 million vaccinations have been carried out since the beginning of the vaccination campaign. More than 9 million people were vaccinated, of which more than 7 million people completed vaccination (received two doses). In Ukraine, updated data on epidemic indicators by region. Now only two regions of the country remain in the "yellow" zone. The Kiev authorities decided to introduce additional quarantine restrictions from November 1. Public transport in the capital will be only for the vaccinated and those who test negative for coronavirus [6] .

According to forecasts, the next three weeks will be critical, after which the wave will gradually decline. The decline in the incidence will continue, as we expect, almost until the end of January. Next rise - March - April 2022[7] . But a collapse has already occurred in the medical system, in many covid wards, patients do not have enough oxygen reserves.

The worst situation is in the following areas:

Donetsk (89%),

Zaporizhzhya (85%),

Sumy (82%),

Odessa (79.07%),

Kherson (78.12%),

Nikolaevskaya (77%).

At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Health V. Lyashko was warned back in June that the demand for oxygen would increase more than five times in the fall. In the midst of the next wave of the disease, two main oxygen suppliers at once shifted the timing of routine maintenance due to "extreme necessity" [8] . The head of the parliamentary committee on national health, medical care and health insurance Mikhail Radutsky[9] confirmed that there was indeed a shortage of oxygen in Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine now needs 344 tons of oxygen per day for the whole country. In addition, he said that the shutdown of large oxygen production plants could be sabotaged. Meanwhile, the NSDC said that Russia is conducting a special operation using bots aimed at reducing vaccinations in Ukraine. [10] . It is likely that the authorities already understand that they have failed in the fight against the coronavirus, so there are attempts to convince the public that someone else, for example, Russia, is to blame for this.

3. Former head of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, People's Deputy Dmitry Razumkov announced his intention to create and lead a new political force.

This week, the Verkhovna Rada apparatus redirected the question of the factional affiliation of the ex-speaker of parliament Dmitry Razumkov to the "Servant of the People"[11] . On the website of the parliament, D. Razumkov is still listed as non-factional [12] . The staff noted that the rules of the Verkhovna Rada determined that the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the first deputy and deputy chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine are not included in the parliamentary faction (deputy group). Accordingly, data on the non-factionalism of D. Razumkov were entered on the site. But regarding the personal statement of People's Deputy Razumkov Dmitry Alexandrovich about leaving the parliamentary faction of the political party Servant of the People in 2019, it is reported that there is no such document in the apparatus of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. The head of the "Servant of the People" faction David Arahamia considers[13] that D. Razumkov is not a member of the faction, but at the same time does not remember whether D. Razumkov wrote a statement on his withdrawal from the faction.

Dmitry Razumkov himself said earlier that after his removal from the post of chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, he automatically continued his membership in the Servant of the People faction. At the same time, on October 28, Dmitry Razumkov announced his intention to create and lead a new political force on the air of the People Against program on the Ukraine-24 TV channel. [14] . According to him, the main task of the new party will be to fulfill the election promises of President Volodymyr Zelensky, which he has now completely rejected.

It remained completely unclear whether we are talking about a new political party, or about the creation of a parliamentary group within the Servant of the People faction, in which D. Razumkov formally continues to be a member. So far , only his closest associates from Servants of the People and, possibly, those deputies who have left Zelensky's team earlier can join D. Razumkov . Most likely, at the first stage there will be few such people. The real prospects of D. Razumkov's party will be obvious closer to the elections. The latest sociological studies show that the rating of the ex-speaker himself begins to grow [15] . At the same time, we can say that part of the disappointed electorate is flowing from V. Zelensky to D. Razumkov. According to various sources, his rating has increased from + 4% to + 7% and now ranges from 7% to 9% [16] .

In any case, now for Bankova, where the ex-speaker was already considered as the main electoral competitor, D. Razumkov will become one of the political targets against which an active information war will be waged.

4. Sociology. New polls confirm the downward trend in government ratings.

This week, Razumkov Center[17] published a new sociological study, the results of which confirm that the dynamics of the ratings of the current government began to decline:

In the presidential rating, Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to lead, 26% of those who will take part in the elections are ready to vote for him . Compared to the last poll published by the Razumkov Center on August 10, the president's rating has dropped by 3%.

This is followed by:

• P. Poroshenko -14% (-2%).

• Y. Boyko -12% (-3%).

• Y. Tymoshenko - 10%, (- 1%).

• D. Razumkov - 9% (+ 7%).

The rating of the rest of the candidates is significantly lower and does not show much change.

The Servant of the People party is in the lead in the party rating - 22% of those who will take part in the elections.

Compared to the poll of August 10, the party's rating has dropped by 5%.

This is followed by:

• "European Solidarity" -16% (-1%).

• “Opposition Platform - For Life” - 13% (-3%).

• VO "Batkivshchyna" - 11%, (unchanged).

• “Strength and Honor” - 6% (unchanged).

The rest of the parties do not overcome the 5% barrier, their rating has not changed significantly.

The results of a survey by the Razumkov Center show a not so rapid decline in the ratings of V. Zelensky (-3%), as it was done in the KIIS study - (almost -8%) [18] . But at the same time, a similar 5% decrease in the rating of the ruling Servant of the People party was shown. As a result, we can say that the offshore scandals, "wagnergate" and the resignation of the speaker have become the reason for the decline in the ratings of the current government.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

The rise in gas prices and the shortage of gas in the European market continue to be a political factor. This week, Ukraine tried to capitalize on it in the form of more filling of its gas transportation system, offering Russia a 50% discount on pumping additional volumes of gas. However, Moscow was not particularly interested in this proposal. They are now more interested in the early launch of Nord Stream 2.

Another important trend is the struggle of the top of the US Democratic Party against Facebook. Over the past week, the leading American media published more than 10 publications exposing the social network, and its director Mark Zuckerberg and his wife were accused of sexual harassment. The persecution unleashed in the United States against Facebook is the result of the reluctance of the traditional elites of the Democratic Party, oriented towards the financial circles of American capital, to share power with the so-called digitalists, who in recent years have gained a particularly strong influence on the processes in society and are now trying to convert it into power.

1. Ukraine has offered Russia a discount on the transit of additional gas volumes to the EU.

On October 24, Ukraine offered Russia a discount on natural gas supplies to Europe to boost supplies and ease the region's energy crisis. This was announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Bloomberg.

The discount applies to natural gas volumes exceeding the contractual 40 billion cubic meters per day, which Ukraine is already transporting to Europe from Russia[19] .

Further quote:

“Ukraine offers this additional capacity to all potential transit countries. We would like to see European companies as customers, but Gazprom also has additional capacities. Taking into account the discount in comparison with the current transit tariff, I can assume that this discount will be 50% ”.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine is discussing a gas transportation proposal with Berlin and Brussels. "We expect that they will soon take steps on practical negotiations on this issue, which is certainly important for the whole of Europe," the president said.

According to him, Ukraine, for its part, guarantees transit and special anti-crisis conditions for transit in excess of the agreed volumes.

Gazprom declined to comment on this topic.

The motivation of the Ukrainian side in this proposal is to fill its gas transportation system in the winter months with a large amount of Russian gas and, as a result, not to use its own gas as a technical one, necessary to ensure the supply of contractual volumes to the EU. If this could be done, Ukraine would be able to go through the heating season with fewer problems for itself.

At the same time, Kiev has threatened Russia with "asymmetric steps" in the event of the termination of gas supplies through the territory of Ukraine. This was stated by the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba.

He stressed that Russia has not yet cut off the supply of blue fuel, but (further quote):

“If the Kremlin decides to do this and destroy the remnants of its reputation as an energy supplier to Europe, we have a number of asymmetric retaliatory steps.[20] ".

This statement by Dmitry Kuleba should be perceived in the context of the continuation of the formation of the image of the current government as "irreconcilable fighters against Russia."

2. Information campaign of the US Democratic Party against the social network Facebook

As we expected, the massive failure of the social network that happened a few weeks ago and the "sudden" revelations of her former employee in Congress and in the liberal press are just the beginning of the suppression campaign that American financiers launched against American digitalists.

Over the past week, more than 10 of the largest American media outlets have released devastating articles for Facebook.[21] .

So, The Washington Post walked through the events of January 6, 2021, when the Trumpists stormed the Capitol. According to the media, Facebook incited them to do this - although after that it banned the account of the current president.

According to an internal report on January 6, complaints of fake news increased sharply, reaching nearly 40,000 an hour. On Instagram, the most frequently reported incitement to violence was under the president's official account @realdonaldtrump.

However, it is indicated that the company has rejected a recommendation by its own Supervisory Board to examine how its policies have contributed to the violence.

CNN also writes about the storming of the Capitol and believes that Facebook either intentionally or accidentally ignored the calls for the storm.

The moderators viewed such content as separate chunks rather than recognizing it as a holistic campaign.

NBC News revealed who exactly gave directions on the content on the day of the storming of the Capitol.

On that day, Facebook Chief Technology Officer Mike Schreepfer personally gave instructions on the prioritization of content. It is indicated that in internal chats, his messages were met with harsh responses from employees.

CNBC describes the same precedent as colleagues at NbcNews, with the headline: "Facebook Papers: Documents Expose Internal Resentment and Disagreement with Site Policies."

The publication also writes that Facebook executives, including CEO Mark Zuckerberg, have misled investors for years by giving them a false view of the reality within the company on issues such as Facebook's user base and its human rights record.

The Atlantic sums it up: "Thousands of pages of internal documents provide a clear picture of how Facebook is threatening American democracy and show that the company's own employees are aware of this."

“The documents are amazing for two reasons: first, because their volume is incredible. Second, these documents leave no room for doubt about the crucial role of Facebook in promoting the cause of authoritarianism in America and around the world. Authoritarianism, of course, preceded Facebook's heyday. But Facebook is making it much easier for the authoritarian government to win, "writes The Atlantic.

The publication also deals with the storming of the Capitol. Moreover, in the aspect of how the social network easily opens user data to law enforcement officers.

"The court documents also detail how Facebook provided investigators with identifying information about its users, as well as the metadata that investigators used to confirm the whereabouts of the alleged criminals that day," The Atlantic said.

The no less authoritative edition of The Wall Street Journal took another fact of caesura as the basis for its publication. Quote:

"In June 2020, when America was rocked by protests over the death of George Floyd at the hands of a Minneapolis police officer, a Facebook employee posted a message on the company's racial justice chat," Remove Breitbart from the news tab. "

We are talking about a conservative news agency, whose messages the social network has decided to suppress manually.

As you can see, Facebook began to literally "destroy" the media plan. Moreover, this is done thoughtfully. Thus, the social network definitely cannot justify itself not only to the conservatives, whom it has been ruthlessly suppressing for a long time, but also to the liberal pro-power mainstream.

It is especially amusing to read how Mark Zuckerberg is accused of supporting the Trumpists, while he and his company were one of the main assets of Biden's election campaign, ensuring the total dominance of Democrats on social networks and the suppression of any disagreement with the official election results.

On October 27, it became known that two people who previously worked in the family of Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan, filed lawsuits against the couple, accusing her of sexual harassment and discrimination[22] . In modern America, such accusations are tantamount to a verdict, especially if they are supported by the mainstream media.

As a conclusion from the above, let us recall that the persecution unfolded in the United States against Facebook is the result of the reluctance of the traditional elites of the Democratic Party, oriented to the financial circles of American capital, to share power with the so-called digitalists, who in recent years have gained a particularly strong influence on the processes in society and are now trying to convert it into power.

3. Military coup in Sudan.

A military coup took place in Sudan this week.

The country plunged into crisis after the military dismissed the "compromise" government and declared a state of emergency on Monday.

The move shattered hopes for a peaceful transfer of power following the ouster of former President Omar al-Bashir in 2019[23] .

Since 2019, Sudan has been ruled by an uneasy alliance between military and civilian political groups. But last Monday, the military actually took control of the situation, dissolving the Sovereign Council and the transitional "compromise" government, as well as temporarily detaining Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok.

Senior Sudanese General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan said the agreement with the civilian members of the country's transitional sovereign council over the past two years "turned into conflict", "threatening peace and unity" in Sudan. According to Burkhan, some articles of the constitution have been suspended and state governors have been removed.

Prime Minister Hamdok and his wife, as well as several ministers and government officials, were detained on Monday and then returned to their residence on Tuesday, a source in the Sudanese Prime Minister's office said.

It is unclear whether Hamdock and his wife will be able to move freely after returning to their home, whether other ministers and government officials have been released, or are still in custody.

UN Secretary General António Guterres condemned the coup and called for the release of the prime minister and other officials. He announced this on Twitter, adding that the UN "will continue to stand on the side" of the people of Sudan.

At a press briefing, the White House said the Biden administration was "deeply alarmed" by the events unfolding in Sudan, and the UK called the coup "an unacceptable betrayal of the Sudanese people."

The European Union "strongly condemned" the coup and stressed the "serious implications" for the EU's engagement with Sudan, including its financial support, if the situation does not change immediately.

Speaking to CNN on Tuesday, Sudanese Foreign Minister Mariam al-Sadik called on the international community to take further action. She said she expects the UN Security Council to "take real action" against the Sudanese military following the seizure of power.

However, all this, as they say, is "lyrics".

The fact is that this week the government has once again changed in one of the most troubled African countries. No "deep concern" of the world community, of course, is able to roll this situation back, or even less bring stability to Sudan.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

In the cold season, Ukrainian society and, accordingly, the Ukrainian government are exposed to additional risks, such as the quality of the fight against the coronavirus epidemic, a drop in the profits of service establishments, which means a growing risk of bankruptcies and unemployment, as well as a possible drop in tax payments to the budget. In such conditions, carrying out total fiscalization becomes even more dangerous both from the point of view of the economy and from the point of view of the government's ratings.

The European Commission is lending to Ukraine, subject to meeting the requirements of the IMF, even in the midst of the coronavirus epidemic. Ukraine must still continue to carry out reforms in order to receive loans not only from the IMF itself, but also from the European Commission.

Over the past two years, Ukraine has become extremely dependent and vulnerable from its relations with Russia and Belarus in terms of stable supply of electricity during the cold season from these countries.

1. The number of debtors in the state register increased by 60%.

On October 25, an article appeared on the official website of the Opendatabot organization that the number of debts has increased by 60% in the Unified Register of Debtors since the beginning of this year - if in January there were 4.2 million, then as of October - already 6 , UAH 8 million [24] . Since 2017, debt collection has been carried out not only by employees of the state executive service, but also by private contractors. This is an example of a public-private partnership, when the functions of the state are performed by business. Along with the state executor, the private one can seize the debtor's funds, seize and put up for auction his property, etc. For incomplete 2021, the number of private contractors for debt collection has doubled - from 278 thousand to 547 thousand, that is, the growth was 95%.

The very fact of "running into debt" means that the current level of income in the Ukrainian labor market cannot meet the demand for goods and services among the Ukrainian population. It is also important to understand that debtors are more vulnerable to the risk of losing their jobs and thus not only losing their source of livelihood, but also being bankrupt, that is, persons unable to repay their debts. The growth of tariffs and tax innovations do not help to reduce the share of debtors in Ukrainian society, but only increase it.

2. Catering in the "red zone" lost 22% of its profit in the first week.

On October 26, ThePage online edition published an article that in the first week of operation in the "red zone" (from October 18 to October 24), catering establishments lost 34% of their profits[25] . We are talking about institutions in Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Odessa regions. This is evidenced by the results of a study by the Poster company. People also spend less, even when they visit food service establishments.

The less profit enterprises bring, the higher the risk of bankruptcy, which means waves of layoffs and rising unemployment. Businesses with declining profitability also face higher pressures in fulfilling their obligations as taxpayers. Thus, the next crisis in the health sector can trigger a crisis in many other sectors of the economy, creating a chain reaction.

3. Ukraine received 600 million euros of macro-financial assistance from the European Union.

On October 25, the publication "Economic Pravda", with reference to the press service of the European Commission, published an article that on the same day the European Commission transferred 600 million euros of macro-financial assistance to Ukraine to combat the consequences of the pandemic[26] . Ukraine will receive the second and final tranche under the program agreed in 2020. The first tranche of € 600 million was received in December 2020. In general, the volume of macro-financial loans provided to Ukraine by the EU is about 4.4 billion euros. Aid to Ukraine is part of the EU's program to support the economic recovery of countries after the COVID-19 pandemic totaling € 3 billion. The receipt of the tranche has already been confirmed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy: he thanked the President of the EC Ursula von der Leyen and Vice-President of the EC Valdis Dombrovskis.

Dombrovskis said that Ukraine has made "significant efforts to meet the conditions for receiving macro-financial assistance, and has also made satisfactory progress in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund." Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs, stressed that the tranches are not only proof of solidarity with Ukrainians, but also a reflection of Ukraine's persistence in achieving key reforms agreed with the EC and the IMF. The tranche is due to the positive assessment of Ukraine's progress by the European Commission on eight structural beacons in public finance, the rule of law, improving the business climate, sectoral reforms and state-owned enterprise management. The EC also noted the positive outcome of the IMF mission, which culminated in a staff-level agreement for Ukraine. The Ministry of Finance previously reported that these funds will be used to maintain economic stabilization in Ukraine by meeting the needs for external financing.

First, to call loans “help” is a manipulation of public consciousness, since a loan implies a return with interest. Secondly, in order to receive this loan, Ukraine must satisfactorily cooperate with the IMF, fulfilling the requirements of the organization. That is, the very formulation as “macro-financial assistance due to the pandemic” is a euphemism.

4. For the first time Moldova bought a million cubic meters of gas from Poland, not Russia.

On October 25, the publication “European Pravda”, with reference to the Moldovan Foreign Ministry, published an article that Moldova, for the first time in 30 years of independence, acquired natural gas from an alternative supplier, and not from Russia, and the supplies will be carried out through Ukraine[27] . The Moldovan state-owned company Energocom has signed a contract with the Polish company PGNiG for a million cubic meters of natural gas. 7 companies took part in the open tender Energocom. PGNiG won the tender. Starting from 6.00 on October 26, gas was supplied to Moldova through the Alekseevka gas point during the day. This is a Ukrainian gas transfer point on the Moldovan border in the Chernivtsi region.

Poland is a hub for receiving American liquefied gas in the port of Swinoustje. Despite the efforts of the administration of the previous US President Donald Trump and the energy lobby behind him, the United States cannot meet European demand for natural gas, but due to the small capacity of the Moldovan natural gas market, Poland can pump American liquefied gas from the hub in Swinoustye to Moldova through the territory Ukraine.

5. Ukraine will start importing electricity from Belarus on November 1.

On October 27, UNN, citing data from the Ukrenergo auction on the supply of electricity in November, reported that Energoatom had bought out the power of Belarusian electricity.[28] . Energoatom bought out 885 of the 900 possible megawatts of Belarusian electricity. The remainder was bought by a private company. It is planned to supply 2,200 megawatts of electricity from the Russian Federation. Private companies were granted the right to supply Russian electricity. Energoatom did not participate in the auction for the supply of Russian electricity. On April 8, 2020, NEURC banned the import of electricity from Russia and Belarus. The official motivation for this decision was purely technical (not political). On January 1, 2021, imports were allowed again. On May 26, NEURC again banned the import of electricity from Russia and Belarus, but this time only until October 1, 2021. On September 29, the ban was extended until November 1.

Despite the ideological confrontation with Russia and Belarus, in the critical months of the year, Ukraine resumes importing electricity from these countries again and again, banning imports only in the warm season. This position of Ukraine is extremely vulnerable, because the country is becoming dependent on constructive relations with Russia and Belarus, despite the bellicose rhetoric at the highest level.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/10/26/7311750/

[2] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/10/28/7312028/

[3] https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2021/10/28/7129549/

[4] https://t.me/stranaua/19465

[5] https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/novyy-maksimum-ukraine-27-tysyach-sluchaev-1635484699.html