Analytical review of the week No. 136 of 24.10.2021.

Авторы публикации

Аналитический обзор недели №136 от 24.10.2021г.

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

18.10.- 24.10.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Sociology. The collapse of the ratings of the authorities.

2. Western diplomats called on the Council of Judges to nominate representatives to the Ethics Council of the SCJ.

3. A package of laws on the NBU, necessary for the IMF, has been adopted.

4. The Venice Commission recommends Ukraine to amend the draft law on a transitional period for Crimea and Donbass.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Speech by Vladimir Putin at the Valdai Forum.

2. Strengthening the diplomatic confrontation between Russia and NATO.

3. Erdogan announced the need to reform the UN Security Council.

4. Threats to the global economy that may come from China.

ECONOMY.

1. Starting next year, when buying real estate or a car, citizens will be required to explain the origin of the funds to the tax.

2. The IMF tentatively agreed to a tranche of $ 700 million, demanding the advancement of judicial reform.

3. Restrictions on transfers by bank payment cards.

4. Certification of Nord Stream 2: The GTS operator has also applied for participation.

5. The Times: London is negotiating the sale of missiles to Kiev.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First , in the domestic policy of Ukraine, the trend towards a decrease in the ratings of the authorities is actively developing. As a result of offshore scandals, "wagnergate" and the resignation of the speaker, the president's rating dropped by more than - 8%, and his party "Servant of the People" - by 4.5%.

Secondly , the control of Western partners over the main spheres of state administration of the country is increasing. A number of laws necessary for the IMF were passed this week. The package of laws on the NBU, while maintaining the influence of foreign investors, strengthens the independence of the National Bank from the Council of the NBU and the government. As part of the same trend, a law was adopted to bring the law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) in line with the Constitution. In essence, under the guise of strengthening "transparency", the Western partners are taking these structures out of the control of the Ukrainian authorities and reassigning them to themselves.

Third , as part of the trend towards opposition to influence the judiciary, the judiciary is actively resisting the establishment of control by foreign embassies and the president. The CCU will consider the constitutional submission of the Supreme Court on the appointment of members of the SCJ, as well as the compliance of the Constitution of Ukraine with the decrees of V. Zelensky on the temporary suspension and dismissal of the head of the CCU A. Tupitsky from office. Courts continue to rule on the illegality of the dismissals of prosecutors, recognizing the formation of public authorities by foreigners as illegal. Against this background, Western diplomats once again call on the Council of Judges to nominate representatives to the Ethics Council of the SCJ.

Fourthly , this week the confrontation between Russia and the NATO countries continued, this time taking on a diplomatic form. The liquidation of the Russian mission to NATO and the NATO mission in Moscow serves as one of the confirmations that some experts who spoke about the "big deal" after the meeting between Putin and Biden in Geneva were in a hurry. Against the background of the above, the verbal confrontation around Ukraine is aggravated. Moscow openly declares about "red lines" and readiness to take "active actions" if NATO military bases appear in Ukraine. Representatives of the American military department, in turn, gush with harsh rhetoric against the Russian Federation and declare that "the doors to NATO are open for Ukraine." At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not seem to understand the seriousness of the situation.

Fifth , Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while on a tour of African countries, once again raised the topic of the need to reform the UN and its Security Council. And although the Turkish leader said this purely in order to set the African elites in favor of his country, the main international organization really requires reform. As it becomes obvious to even the most short-sighted analysts that the new multipolar system of international relations has already taken root, the inconsistency of the institutions created during the period of bipolarity is making itself felt more and more clearly to modern conditions.

Sixth , Ukraine continues the course towards total fiscalization of the life of ordinary citizens, which is expressed in tightening control over expenses, namely, when buying real estate, citizens will be required to explain the origin of the funds or pay an 18 percent tax. At the same time, developers may be eligible for VAT exemption.

Seventh , the Ukrainian gas transportation system operator will try to slow down the launch of Nord Stream 2 by participating in its certification, but this will also mean a conflict of interest with Germany, Ukraine's strategic partner on the way to EU membership. An attempt to harm the economic interests of Germany does not contribute to the improvement of bilateral relations with it and rather postpones the prospect of Ukraine to become a member of the EU.

Eighth , Ukraine remains a market for Western military products. Such support of Western defense enterprises and their loading with orders is presented as assistance to Kiev, although such supplies will not solve the issue of the country's defense in the face of the threat of large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

In the domestic policy of Ukraine, the trend towards a decrease in the ratings of the authorities is actively developing. As a result of offshore scandals, "wagnergate" and the resignation of the speaker, the president's rating dropped by more than - 8%, and his party "Servant of the People" - by 4.5%.

The control of Western partners over the main spheres of state administration of the country is increasing. A number of laws necessary for the IMF were passed this week. The package of laws on the NBU, while maintaining the influence of foreign investors, strengthens the independence of the National Bank from the Council of the NBU and the government. As part of the same trend, a law was adopted to bring the law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) in line with the Constitution. In essence, under the guise of strengthening "transparency", the Western partners are taking these structures out of the control of the Ukrainian authorities and reassigning them to themselves.

As part of the trend towards opposition to influence the judiciary, the judiciary is actively resisting the establishment of control by foreign embassies and the president. The CCU will consider the constitutional submission of the Supreme Court on the appointment of members of the SCJ, as well as the compliance of the Constitution of Ukraine with the decrees of V. Zelensky on the temporary suspension and dismissal of the head of the CCU A. Tupitsky from office. Courts continue to rule on the illegality of the dismissals of prosecutors, recognizing the formation of public authorities by foreigners as illegal. Against this background, Western diplomats once again call on the Council of Judges to nominate representatives to the Ethics Council of the SCJ.

1. Sociology. The collapse of the ratings of the authorities.

This week, the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released a sociological study, the results of which demonstrate a significant drop in the ratings of the current government.

In the presidential rating[1] V. Zelensky continues to lead. 24.7% of respondents are ready to support him. In comparison with the survey, which was cited by KIIS on September 10-15, 2021. [2] , the president's rating lost 8.6%; was 33.3%. At the same time, we can say that part of the disappointed electorate is flowing from V. Zelensky to D. Razumkov, since since June his rating has increased by 4% and now is 7%.

Along with the decline in the presidential rating, the ruling party is also starting to lose ground. In the parliamentary rating [3] now two parties are in the lead, the difference between them is within the statistical error:

• "European Solidarity" - 15.7% (-1.7%)

• "Servant of the people" - 15.5%, formally occupy the second line. In comparison with the poll conducted by KIIS on September 10-15, 2021, the party's rating has lost 4.5%; was 20.0%.

The results of the KIIS poll demonstrate that, in general, voters are dissatisfied with the actions of the authorities, and consider it to be no better than the previous one. And a significant part - almost 30% consider it even worse. The society cites corruption and incompetence of the authorities as the main reason for the plight in the country.

It can be stated that V. Zelensky's rating has lost more than 8% in a month. In addition, due to the loss of "Servants of the People" support of a part of their electorate, both in the nationalist and conditionally "pro-Russian" sectors, "Batkivshchyna" (+ 2.8%) and "Svoboda" are beginning to gain votes and positions. (+ 2.6%). This process is less active in the case of OLE (+ 1.4%) and the NASHI party (this party is now also getting into parliament). It is interesting that despite the conditional leadership, the negative dynamics of the European Solidarity rating persists. That is, the electorate from "Servants of the People" does not flow there.

Apart from offshore scandals, "wagnergate" and the resignation of the speaker (this event was assessed negatively by almost 40% versus 8% positively), the main reasons for the decline in the ratings of the authorities include the negative background created by the statements or actions of individual deputies in the faction. In addition to everything, a tariff crisis is foreseen in the country, so the trend of decreasing the government's ratings will continue.

2. Western diplomats called on the Council of Judges to nominate representatives to the Ethics Council of the SCJ.

This week, Charge d'Affaires of the United States to Ukraine Christina Quinn, Head of the European Union Delegation to Ukraine Matti Maasikas and British Ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons called on the Council of Judges to nominate representatives to the Ethics Council of the High Council of Justice (SCJ) [4] . Western diplomats express regret that the Council of Judges of Ukraine has not yet nominated representatives to the ethical council of the SCJ. In addition, it is said that the delay in the implementation of the judicial reform in the country may also be caused by the constitutional submission to the Constitutional Court of the Supreme Court on the appointment of SCJ members. [5] . Among the main tasks of judicial reform for President V. Zelensky, diplomats name the reform of the Constitutional Court.

Earlier, the judiciary of the Supreme Council appealed to the Constitutional Court regarding the verification of the compliance with the Constitution of the norms of the law on the procedure for the election and appointment of members of the High Council of Justice, which may call into question the legitimacy of the participation of “international experts” in this process.

Against this background, the confrontation between the judiciary, the presidential vertical and Western partners is gaining new momentum.

The focus of attention is again on the question of the legality of the dismissal of the head of the KSU A. Tupitsky by President V. Zelensky[6] .

Along with this, the courts continue to make decisions on the illegality of the dismissals of prosecutors during the leadership of the Prosecutor General's Office R. Ryaboshapka. Thus, the sixth administrative court of appeal satisfied the claim for the reinstatement of the head of the GPU department Vitaly Kovbasyuk [7] . Earlier, on October 14, the District Administrative Court of Kiev (OASK)[8] made a similar decision on the claim of the prosecutor Taras Karpyuk. The court declared illegal the formation of public authorities by foreigners (they participated in the personnel commission), which was one of the reasons for the satisfaction of the claim. " This led to the creation of a personnel commission under the influence of a foreign state and means the loss of Ukraine's sovereign rights to form government bodies, " the court's decision says.

It is obvious that the judiciary is actively resisting attempts to establish control over it by foreign embassies and foundations. In fact, the OASK accuses the current government of encroaching on the state sovereignty of the country. Considering that with the participation of international experts recommended by Western partners, it is planned to select members of the governing bodies of the judicial system (SCJ and VKKS), later these decisions may be recognized as illegal.

3. A package of laws on the NBU, necessary for the IMF, has been adopted.

On October 19, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a package of laws on the independence of the National Bank, which are part of the implementation of the Memorandum with the International Monetary Fund[9] . In particular, the bill # 5850 should strengthen the independence of the National Bank. He changes the powers of the NBU Council, whose members are appointed according to the quotas of the president and parliament. The NBU Council will no longer be able to analyze the impact of the regulator's monetary policy on socio-economic development, as well as provide proposals for changing this policy to the NBU board, it will also not be able to assess the work of the board.

In addition, Law No. 5852 was adopted, which supplements the previous one. He is amending the law on public procurement, according to which the National Bank's purchases of legal support services for cases abroad are excluded from the operation of this law.

The third in the package is law # 5853, which amends the Budget Code. They are invited to change the communication between the NBU and the government when preparing the budget declaration. So, until March 1, the NBU will annually inform the government about the approximate forecast of a part of the profit for distribution, which will be subject to transfer to the state budget. The National Bank considers this form of interaction to be political pressure.

On the same day, the Verkhovna Rada adopted in the second reading a bill to bring the law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) in line with the Constitution. This law was also one of the conditions for cooperation with the IMF. Earlier, by its two decisions, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine declared unconstitutional the decree on the appointment of A. Sytnyk as the director of NABU and the provisions of the law on NABU in terms of the president's participation in the selection and appointment of the director of NABU. Now the law determines that the current director of NABU, Artem Sytnik, will retain his post until the appointment of a successor, the selection of which should begin after the entry into force of the law, but no longer than his term of office, which expires in April 2022. In addition, NABU will become a central executive body with a special status. The Cabinet of Ministers will not be able to interfere with the work of the bureau and will appoint the director of NABU based on the results of the competition, which will be conducted by a special commission. It should consist of six people: three are determined by the government, three more - by international experts.

In November, V. Zelensky expects[10] that the IMF Executive Board will approve agreements on the allocation of a tranche to Ukraine in the amount of about $ 700 million. Strengthening the anti-corruption vertical, the implementation of judicial reform and the need to ensure the independence of the National Bank of Ukraine remain one of the main conditions of the cooperation program.

In fact, all the demands put forward by the IMF are veiled demands for strengthening control by external players over the most important areas of government. Cooperation with the IMF leads not only to an increase in external debt and an increase in tariffs, but also deprives the country of some of its sovereignty. As a rule, new loans are not granted to Ukraine until the necessary laws or decisions are taken. At the same time, the size of the trenches decreases, and the intervals between them increase. Probably, the IMF understands that the Ukrainian economy is “bled out” and it is no longer a solvent borrower.

4. The Venice Commission recommends Ukraine to amend the draft law on a transitional period for Crimea and Donbass.

This week, the Venice Commission published its opinion[11] on the draft law "On the Foundations of State Policy for the Transition Period", which proposes the settlement of the principles of public administration and justice in the occupied territories during the process of their reintegration.

The main recommendations of the Venice Commission are as follows:

- to amend the provisions on lustration in accordance with international standards.

- revise, in accordance with international law, the provisions on responsibility for crimes committed in connection with the temporary occupation.

- to formulate more clearly the provisions on the confirmation of documents issued in the occupied territories;

- to reconsider the differentiated attitude towards various categories of criminals;

- to reflect in the draft law the special constitutional status of Crimea and Sevastopol.

In August 2021, at a regular meeting, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft law "On the Foundations of State Policy for the Transition Period"[12] . It should be noted that the implementation of certain provisions of this law into Ukrainian legislation will seriously complicate the already complex negotiation process. Russia has already stated that if the law is adopted in this form, it will mean the actual withdrawal of Ukraine unilaterally from the Minsk process.[13] . The government bill rather views Donbass as a resource that needs to be returned. But it is unlikely that such provisions as responsibility for cooperation with the CADLO authorities, temporary defeat in electoral and other civil rights, will contribute to the return of the mentally lost population. The law is built from the standpoint of the winners and implies the return of Donbass on the basis of the implementation of a political-territorial victory, which is currently not true.

It can be assumed that the target audience of this draft law is not the population of the uncontrolled territories, but those groups of activists within the country who can periodically create certain problems for the authorities in the form of street protests or whipping up a negative information background. In this case, it can be expected that no fundamental changes will be made to the law “On the Foundations of State Policy for the Transitional Period”. Since there is no question of a real return of the population of Donbass disloyal to the authorities under the control of Kiev.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

This week, Russia's confrontation with NATO countries continued, this time taking on a diplomatic form. The liquidation of the Russian mission to NATO and the NATO mission in Moscow serves as one of the confirmations that some experts who spoke about the "big deal" after the meeting between Putin and Biden in Geneva were in a hurry. Against the background of the above, the verbal confrontation around Ukraine is aggravated. Moscow openly declares about "red lines" and readiness to take "active actions" if NATO military bases appear in Ukraine. Representatives of the American military department, in turn, gush with harsh rhetoric against the Russian Federation and declare that "the doors to NATO are open for Ukraine." At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities do not seem to understand the seriousness of the situation.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while on a tour of African countries, once again raised the topic of the need to reform the UN and its Security Council. And although the Turkish leader said this purely in order to set the African elites in favor of his country, the main international organization really requires reform. As it becomes obvious to even the most short-sighted analysts that the new multipolar system of international relations has already taken root, the inconsistency of the institutions created during the period of bipolarity is becoming more and more evident to modern conditions.

1. Speech by Vladimir Putin at the Valdai Forum.

On Thursday, October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke at the annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi, and then answered questions[14] .

One of the main themes of Putin's speech was the "war of values". The Russian president, perhaps for the first time, proclaimed that the main contradictions between the Russian Federation and the West lie not in the economic or political sphere, but in the values.

Putin called the new values of the West monstrous. Quote:

“Moving away from such concepts as “mom,” “dad,” different genders - this is perceived in the West as progress. It is monstrous when children are taught that a boy can become a girl. The idea of the child's right to self-determination of gender is on the verge of a crime against humanity. "

The Russian president said that the fight against racism is turning into racism on the contrary, and the discussion about the rights of men and women has gone in the wrong direction.

Also, according to Putin, the existing model of capitalism, which today is the basis of social order in most countries, has exhausted itself, since within its framework there is no longer a way out of the tangle of increasingly tangled contradictions. For the same reason, the Russian president is alarmed by the outstripping growth of technology.

According to Putin, the pandemic and other processes have shown that the era of Western domination is becoming a thing of the past.

Finally, the Russian president summed up his main idea: "Our contradictions with the modern West do not lie in the ideological or economic plane, but in the fundamental principles of attitudes towards life itself and its structure. And every year they diverge more and more."

According to Putin, when a real crisis comes, "there is only one universal value - human life. And how to protect it, each state decides on its own, based on its capabilities, culture, traditions."

And Russia has chosen its position - this is the path of "moderate conservatism."

"Moderate conservatism is, in my opinion, the most reasonable line of behavior. It will inevitably change, but so far the medical principle of 'do no harm' seems to be the most rational," Putin said.

Putin's theses described above are notable for two points.

First, they, de facto, assert the prevailing ideology in Russia, on the basis of which the Russian state will assess all events in the international arena and social phenomena. No matter what Russian officials say about “the impossibility of having an official ideology,” moderate conservatism is a very concrete thing, not a streamlined one.

Second, the assertion that Russia will build its policy on the basis of conservative worldview guidelines and traditional values can attract many sympathizers to it in the West, where conservative political forces and the strata of the population oriented towards them are increasingly dissatisfied with the ruling ultra - liberal discourse.

Analyzing Putin's speech at Valdai, it is worth mentioning that he also spoke about Ukraine. The Russian president called the situation in Ukraine a dead end, since the de facto power is not the president, but "a certain group of people." He also stated that "it seems that the people of Ukraine will not be allowed to change this state of affairs in a legal way." Another thesis of Putin, affecting our country, says that the military development of its territory by NATO forces is already underway. At the same time, the Russian president once again made it clear that the American military bases in Ukraine are a "red line" for the Russian Federation, upon crossing which Moscow can resort to the harshest actions.

2. Strengthening the diplomatic confrontation between Russia and NATO.

This week, confrontation continued in the relationship between Russia and NATO, despite some efforts by Moscow and Washington to find a digestible format for coexistence.

Earlier this month, on October 6, the North Atlantic Alliance expelled eight Russian diplomats from Brussels who were serving in the Russian permanent mission to the alliance. The formal reason was that they were convicted of having links with Russian intelligence.[15] . And although it is unlikely that there are people so naive in the NATO leadership that they do not understand who is usually sent to such missions, the diplomats were deprived of their accreditation.

Of course, Moscow responded. On October 18, it became known that Russia is suspending the work of its mission to the North Atlantic Alliance since the beginning of November. This was reported by the TASS agency with reference to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.[16] .

According to him, this decision was made after NATO revoked the accreditation of eight employees of the permanent mission of the Russian Federation at the organization. As a result, the Russian side "practically lacks" the necessary conditions for diplomatic activity, the minister said.

“We are suspending the work of our permanent mission to NATO, including the work of the chief military representative, probably from November 1, or maybe it will take a few more days,” he said.

Lavrov added that the activities of the NATO Military Liaison Mission in Moscow will also be terminated. In this case, the accreditation of its employees will be revoked.

The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry noted that the Alliance, in the event of "urgent matters", could turn to the Russian Ambassador to Belgium.

In parallel with the next deterioration in relations between Russia and NATO, a wave of harsh statements rolled from both the Russian and the American sides related to the visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Kiev on October 19.

On the eve of the Press Secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said that the possible accession of Ukraine to NATO "goes beyond the red lines of Russia's national interests" and in response the Russian Federation can "take active measures to ensure its own security."[17] .

It should be noted that this is far from the first statement of this kind by top officials of the Russian Federation. Over the past six months, similar thoughts have been voiced by Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu. Moscow takes the threat of deploying NATO military bases in Ukraine very seriously and, if it becomes real, is ready to resort to the use of force, regardless of any sanctions and "deep concern" of its Western partners.

Washington is aware of the position of the Russian side. However, they continue to "play up", making statements annoying Moscow. Thus, the announcement of Lloyd Austin's trip on the website of the US Department of Defense emphasized that "the doors to NATO are open" for Ukraine and Georgia. Also, during a briefing in Kiev, the US Secretary of Defense called on Russia to end the conflict in Donbas and condemned for the events in Crimea. Quote:

“Let's say clearly that Russia started this war, and Russia is the stone that hinders a peaceful settlement. They began to violate the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. "

Lloyd Austin added that Russia should not interfere in the issue of Ukraine's joining NATO.

Given the above situation, the behavior of the Ukrainian leadership is of particular concern. So, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba, in response to the statement of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, wrote on Twitter, quote:

"The worst scenario has already happened: the Russian attack on Ukraine, the occupation of our lands and the murder of our citizens." Therefore, writes Kuleba, Ukraine is not interested in the opinion of the Russian Federation on its entry into NATO.

We are far from thinking that Kuleba does not understand the difference between a sluggish positional war in the Donbass and a full-scale military operation by Russia along the entire length of the border, which may begin if Moscow considers the threat to deploy NATO military bases in Ukraine to be real. But if he understands, why does he make statements that can aggravate the situation?

Probably, the reason is the strategic myopia traditional for the Ukrainian authorities, in which an adequate foreign policy and a desire to avoid troubles for their country are replaced by the desire to get a momentary political hype among the electorate on harsh political rhetoric.

3. Erdogan announced the need to reform the UN Security Council.

This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to gain popularity in Africa, noting strong statements about the need to reform the UN Security Council during his visit to Angola.[18] .

"The world is more than five," - this is how the Turkish president explained his desire to start reforming the main international organization.

Further quote:

“The fate of humanity cannot and should not be left at the mercy of a handful of countries that won the Second World War. Not listening to the demands for change means showing injustice to Africa and such powerful countries of the continent as Angola. "

According to the Turkish leader, his country rejects the "Western Orientalist approach" in Africa. “Turkey knows that Africa has enriched the whole world with its history, culture and peoples, and it knows about the immense potential of Africa in all areas,” he said.

The topic of reform of the UN Security Council has been raised more than once. Quite recently, on September 27, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the number of permanent and temporary members of the Security Council should be expanded. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also admitted that "the reform is definitely overdue; this is a fact."

Now the Security Council consists of 15 states - 5 permanent (Great Britain, China, Russia, USA and France) and 10 temporaries, elected by the UN General Assembly for a two-year term by 5 countries every year. The 10 non-permanent members are selected based on a geographic quota. Five countries - from among African and Asian, one - from Eastern Europe, two - from Western, two more - from Latin America.

The main task of the Security Council is to maintain international order and peace. For this, for example, he can impose sanctions against the aggressor countries. The decisions of the Security Council are actually binding, in contrast to the decisions of the General Assembly, which are rather advisory. At the same time, the permanent members of the Security Council have the right of veto, which can influence the decisions made.

But small and weak states, traditionally, express dissatisfaction with the structure and powers of the UN Security Council and gush out various "projects" for its change. Along with African states, Ukraine periodically puts forward such initiatives.

So, during his last speech at a meeting of the UN General Assembly, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed dissatisfaction with the existing structure of the organization and called for its reform.

The claims of most countries outside the UN Security Council to this structure are that "the great powers cannot decide the fate of the rest of the world, and therefore the Security Council needs to be expanded." But, in fairness, is getting a nominal seat on the Security Council capable of increasing the influence of small states on modern international relations? Isn't the insignificance of their influence a consequence of the insignificance of their economic and military-political potential? And aren't the great powers the only true subjects of world politics today?

Without a doubt, this is all true. This means that the UN Security Council requires reforming in a different direction than Angola, Ukraine, or other small states are urging to do.

But it is nevertheless necessary to reform it. And this reform could consist in the exclusion of those members who are no longer subjects of world politics and the addition of new participants who, in the conditions of a multipolar system of international relations, will become such subjects.

The presence in the Security Council of the United States, China and Russia is indisputable. But Britain can be completely removed from there, because it is no longer the "ruler of the seas", but just a small island state, torn apart by separatist sentiments. In fact, Britain is the additional voice of the United States on the Security Council. No more, no less.

The same, however, with some reservations, can be said about France. The last time the French voted in principle in the Security Council against the American position dates back to the presidency of the Gaullist Jacques Chirac. The entire subsequent history of voting is a triumph of liberalism and Atlanticism in French politics. As for me, in order to enter the club of the great powers of our time, France needs to isolate itself from the United States and NATO in order to pursue a truly sovereign foreign policy. So far, we hear only timid talk about such a scenario from the lips of French politicians. But they are not backed up by practical actions.

Some analysts talk about the need to include India in the Security Council, but this idea seems dubious. Despite the huge human and resource potential, as well as the possession of nuclear weapons, India is still a kind of "thing in itself." Of course, it has its own small sphere of influence in Southeast Asia, but the Indians do not carry out any expansion outside this sphere (be it trade or military). However, if in the future India's foreign policy becomes proactive, it may well claim a seat in the Security Council, if it is reformed.

4. Threats to the global economy that may come from China.

This week, the world media began to write that China's economic growth is seriously slowing down. The country is moving from one economic threat to another. And while some of the biggest challenges seem to be bypassing the Middle Kingdom, the unfolding real estate crisis is emerging as one of the most significant threats to Beijing in the coming year.

In the last quarter, the country's GDP grew at the slowest pace in a year, increasing by only 4.9% compared to last year. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy grew by just 0.2%. The period from July to September is one of the weakest quarters in terms of economic growth since China began setting such records in 2011.

The recession was fueled by problems from the global shipping crisis and a severe energy crisis[19] .

In 2020, China was the only major economy to avoid a recession. However, this year he faced many problems that seriously affect economic growth.

The country is at the epicenter of an energy crisis that is lowering production and leading to power outages in some areas. The challenge was fueled by demand earlier this year for construction projects that require fossil fuels and run counter to Beijing's ambitions to cut carbon emissions.

Delays in container ship loading and surging inventories have also hit mid-sized commodity producers in China who are now short on cash, resulting in lost orders and reduced production.

The real estate sector is plagued by government efforts to limit the over-indebtedness of the industry. Real estate investments are falling. This puts a heavy burden on developers, the notorious Evergrande, whose debt crisis has raised fears of a possible domino effect in the global economy, such as the one that caused the collapse of Lemon Brothers in 2008. Several other real estate firms have already indicated that they are struggling to pay off their debts.

The consequences of the above situation are clearly visible in the statistics released on Monday.

According to them, industrial production in China grew by just 3.1% last month compared to last year, the lowest since March 2020, when the pandemic hit the country's economy. Real estate, including cement and steel, saw a sharp decline. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimates that fixed investment declined in September, reversing a slight gain in August.

"Official GDP growth slowed to its lowest last quarter," Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a policy memo, adding that "industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper recession."

In conditions when the Chinese economy is one of the engines of the world economy, the described trend looks especially alarming. The fears of financial analysts about the possibility of a new economic crisis in China are far from groundless.

What to do with this information - everyone decides for himself. But it is obvious to us that both governments and ordinary citizens in different countries of the world should prepare for new economic shocks.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

Ukraine continues the course towards total fiscalization of the life of ordinary citizens, which is expressed in tightening control over expenses, namely, when buying real estate, citizens will be required to explain the origin of the funds or pay an 18 percent tax. At the same time, developers may be eligible for VAT exemption.

The Ukrainian GTS operator will try to slow down the launch of Nord Stream 2 by participating in its certification, but this will also mean a conflict of interest with Germany, Ukraine's strategic partner on the way to EU membership. An attempt to harm the economic interests of Germany does not contribute to the improvement of bilateral relations with it and rather postpones the prospect of Ukraine to become a member of the EU.

Ukraine remains a market for Western military products. Such support of Western defense enterprises and their loading with orders is presented as assistance to Kiev, although such supplies will not solve the issue of the country's defense in the face of the threat of large-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine.

1. Starting next year, when buying real estate or a car, citizens will be required to explain the origin of the funds to the tax.

On October 20, OBOZREVATEL published an article on the introduction in Ukraine from 2022 of indirect methods of controlling household expenditures in order to tax them.[20] .

To buy an apartment, you have to prove that the white salary would be enough for such expenses. In Ukraine, banks almost never independently apply to the tax service in order to transfer information about a client of their own free will. However, the tax authorities themselves can write a letter to the financial institution and receive data from any account. In some cases, a financial institution must independently apply to law enforcement agencies, to the tax office. This applies to those situations when the bank managed to disclose the financial fraud of its client. The bank is obliged to carry out checks, for example, to monitor the operations of its client and make sure that the client earned his money legally. They will be able to check purchases and property. And in this situation, citizens will have to prove the legality of the origin of income not by the tax authorities.

And if they could not explain where the money came from to buy a house or a car, they will have to pay an income tax of 18% of the amount that they planned to spend. At the same time, the deputies have already proposed to remove from the draft law No. 5600 the norms on the payment of VAT by developers , on the taxation of the sale of agricultural products and self-occupied land. Thus, the authorities place a clear emphasis on the total fiscalization of small businesses and individuals. The natural reaction of the people at whom this tax innovation is directed will be further withdrawal into the shadows and the invention of more sophisticated ways of avoiding total fiscalization.

2. The IMF tentatively agreed to a tranche of $ 700 million, demanding the advancement of judicial reform.

On October 18, on the official website of the IMF, a message appeared about the first revision of the stand-by agreement between the organization and the government of Ukraine[21] . The IMF is concerned about Ukraine's fiscal policy, the independence of the National Bank and inflation targeting. The organization also declares its interest in the stable operation of private banks. The IMF also insists on continuing judicial reform, fighting corruption and reducing the role of the state in the economy.

As Ukraine's cooperation with the IMF deepens, the size of tranches decreases, and the intervals between them grow. The Fund understands that Ukraine is no longer a solvent borrower and, accordingly, it makes no sense to lend it more money. By means of its demands in exchange for the next tranche, the IMF, de facto, extends its influence on the monetary and fiscal policy of Ukraine, as well as on the price level. Moreover, this influence will grow even more as a result of “qualitative” (from the point of view of the IMF) judicial reform, the fight against corruption and a decrease in the role of the state in the economy.

3. Restrictions on transfers by bank payment cards.

Throughout 2021, Ukrainian banks have been blocking “suspicious” card-to-card transactions. Mostly, transactions over 400 thousand hryvnia at a time are blocked[22] . Transactions over 400 thousand hryvnia are automatically blocked, and for other transactions, another algorithm is launched that tracks their "suspicious" nature by other indicators. In a state institution, they draw up an act on a suspicious transaction and charge it with a profit tax, a Unified Social Contribution, a Military Tax, and a fine. Thus, an unregistered merchant can lose 20-41% of the transfer amount. The main “target audience” of this innovation is online merchants who advertise their products on large platforms and send parcels directly to end consumers by mail. These traders are individuals. Thus, the government focuses on collecting taxes from ordinary citizens, fulfilling, among other things, the requirements of the IMF regarding “consistent” fiscal policy.

4. Certification of Nord Stream 2: The GTS operator has also applied for participation.

On October 20, on the official website of the Ukrainian GTS Operator, a message appeared that the organization had submitted an application to the German regulator (Bundesnetzagentur) to participate in the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 operator.[23][24] . OGTS openly declares that it opposes Nord Stream-2, but nevertheless submits an application to be admitted to the certification process of this project. Thus, there is an obvious conflict of interest. The only purpose for which the OGTS may be interested in participating in the certification of SP-2 is to delay the time so that the gas pipeline is launched as late as possible. The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that Germany remains a strategic partner of Ukraine on the path of its possible accession to the EU. Thus, trying to slow down the process of launching SP-2, Ukraine is trying to harm the economic interests of its strategic partner, thereby impairing its chances of Germany's favor in any attempts to move closer to joining the EU.

5. The Times: London is negotiating the sale of missiles to Kiev.

On October 21, the British edition of The Times, referring to the Ukrainian diplomat, published an article where it reported that Ukraine is negotiating with the UK on the purchase of missiles.[25] . The Ministry of Defense is discussing the sale of surface-to-surface missiles developed by MBDA UK, which can hit a swarm of targets simultaneously and will be deployed on ships in service with the Ukrainian Navy. The Times writes that the talks are being held for the first time "amid fears that Russia could use the gas crisis to seize territory."

The sale of British missiles to Kiev is just an excuse to finance and load orders for British defense enterprises at the expense of Ukraine. The sale of several missiles cannot resolve the issue of Ukraine's defenses in the face of the possibility of large-scale Russian aggression. The country's defense capability could be provided only by the collective guarantees of the Western countries, which they are in no hurry to provide, not wanting to get involved in a military conflict with Russia over Ukraine, which remains only a market for Western military and other products.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1063&page=1

[2] https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1062&page=1

[3] https://www.kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=reports&id=1066&page=1

[4] https://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2021/10/20/7311062/

[5] https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/773994.html