ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK IN UKRAINE AND THE WORLD
(08.02.-14.02.2021)
CONTENT:
INTERNAL POLICY.
1. Zelensky's initiative with 30 forums.
2. Sociology. A decrease in the ratings of the pro-government team. Citizens' opinion on blocking TV channels.
3. Rumors about a possible rotation of the parliament speakers.
4. Talk about warfare intensification on the front-line.
FOREIGN POLICY.
1. The telephone conversation between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping confirmed the trend towards the continuation of the US-China confrontation.
2. The crisis in relations between Russia and the European Union: a new escalation in connection with the case of Alexei Navalny.
3. Gazprom's statements on the completion of the installation of Nord Stream-2 across Danish territory in a couple of months, the rhetoric of Germany and France.
4. Criticism of Ukraine in the report of the European Parliament on its implementation of the Association Agreement
ECONOMY.
1. Plans to further increase tariffs for housing and communal services.
2. The head of the National Bank proposes to create a "credit" court.
3. The IMF mission in Ukraine has stopped working. The decision to grant a new loan has not been made.
CONCLUSION.
INTERNAL POLICY.
Briefly:
The main domestic political events of this week were: warfare intensification on the frontline, the negotiation process for a peaceful settlement in Donbas has reached a dead end, the President's initiative to hold 30 forums, the fall in ruling party ratings, rumors about the rotation of the speaker of the parliament of Ukraine.
All of them are a continuation of several trends: the strengthening of the political, informational, and, accordingly, electoral crises of power, the emerging disagreements between the President and the Speaker of Parliament (part of the MPs in the “Servant of the People” ruling party); decline in social and economic indicators and growth of protest potential in society; reaching an impasse in the negotiation process in Donbas; the growing influence of the new administration in the United States.
In the continuation of the downward trend in the ratings of Zelensky's team, discontent and a desire for a change of government is growing in society.
As measures to counter crises, V. Zelensky's team is trying to: build the most loyal relations with D. Biden's administration; suppress the information tools of opposition factions and groups - "tighten the screws"; to conclude informal agreements with right-wing political forces and groups to ensure their loyalty (primarily "street"); refocusing public attention on external issues instead of internal ones; intercept the information initiative by announcing 30 forums for the anniversary of Independence Day.
1. Zelensky's initiative with 30 forums.
On Monday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced weekly forums in Ukraine to celebrate the 30th anniversary of Independence Day in the format of dialogue with society.
The President said this, speaking at the All-Ukrainian Forum "Ukraine 30 Coronavirus: Challenges and Answers" These forums, according to Vladimir Zelensky, can provide an understanding of many processes, useful information, and answers to important questions of concern.
It is worth noting that the announcement of the forums coincided with the downtrend in the ratings of Vladimir Zelensky and his team. Therefore, this initiative can be regarded as not a very successful PR move to stabilize the government's rating. V. Zelensky is trying to seem like a president who has become closer to the people, hears directly their problems. But the fact is that the Ukrainian society assesses the situation in the country according to the results of the fulfilled pre-election promises, which they can now feel on themselves, namely: an increase in tariffs, a decrease in the standard of living of the population, aggravation at the front, etc. The point is not that the president communicates little with the people, but the fact that society no longer trusts this information. Therefore, if the forums are not accompanied by the necessary actions to resolve the main socio-economic problems in the country (and it will not be), the government's rating will continue to fall, and the forums themselves will quickly become uninteresting.
2. Sociology. A decrease in the ratings of the pro-government team. Citizens' opinion on blocking TV channels.
On Monday, February 8, the results of a sociological survey by the Razumkov Center were published, according to which Vladimir Zelensky, with a score of 26.5%, yielded 32% to Dmitry Razumkov in the trust rating.
In the previously published rating of trust from Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), V. Zelensky (35.6% of trust) was bypassed by V. Klitschko (37.5% of trust), who is not present in the survey by the Razumkov Center. (According to KIIS, D. Razumkov is trusted by 26.6%.). In a study by the sociological company “Rating” V. Zelensky remains the leader of the trust. According to the results of three opinion polls, it is still impossible to speak unambiguously about the loss of Zelensky's leadership in terms of the trust.
But the level of the president’s trust must have pronounced negative dynamics, in contrast to his opponents. According to a poll by the "Rating" company, V. Klitschko in December - 30%, respectively, an increase of + 4%. D. Razumkov in December 26% (+ 1%). Therefore, the further loss of leadership by the president in terms of the trust is a matter of time.
The results of the poll by the Razumkov Center also confirm the growth of dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities:
The idea of dissolving parliament is supported by 52%. (according to the results previously published by KIIS - 60.7%; "Rating" - 63%.)
The resignation of the government is supported by 54% (KIIS - 55.4%, "Rating" - 62%.)
The idea of the president's resignation is supported by 49% (KIIS - 47.6%; "Rating" - 50%.)
The results of polls by the Razumkov Center, KIIS, and the Rating indicate that already about 50% of Ukrainian citizens want a change of government.
On February 11, KIIS published a study on the cessation of broadcasting of three opposition TV channels.
40.8% of respondents believe that the ban on the TV channels "112", "Zik" and "NewsOne" is a mistake and only leads to a restriction of the rights of citizens.
34.6% - consider the ban on TV channels "112" "Zik" and "NewsOne" a necessary step to protect the state. "
It is worth paying attention to a more objective selection and formulation of questions from KIIS. However, the results differ significantly if the question is asked differently.
"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the National Security and Defense Council decided to ban the broadcasting of TV channels 112, Zik and NewsOne. Do you support or do not support this decision?"
• In this case, support the decision - 43%
• but do not support - 40.3%.
Perhaps that is why the results of KIIS in this matter differ from the results of the "Rating", according to which 49% support the decision to stop broadcasting 112 "Zik" and "NewsOne", while 41% did not.
It is also important that among the Servant of the People voters, 32.6% do not support the closure of TV channels, which suggests that as a result, the pro-government team may lose about a third of its electorate. Almost the same result (30%) is indicated by "Rating".
A new tendency has been observed in the party ranking since the beginning of the year - "Servant of the People" is no longer an isolated leader. Now the party is fighting to enter the top three, where rotations will periodically take place.
The leaders in the party rating of KIIS are:
"European Solidarity" - 18.1%.
“Opposition Platform “For Life” (OPL) - 16.8%.
"Servant of the People" - 15.5%.
KIIS makes a note that these three parties “share” the first or third places. Since their rating differs slightly. Compared to January, the most significant changes have been made in the ratings of OPL (-3.9%), Servant of the People + 4.3%, and EU + 2.8%. Regarding the decrease in the rating of "OPL", it should be borne in mind that the rating could decrease both due to changes in the views of some of its former supporters, taking into account the statements of the NSDCU, and because some of its supporters began to hide their real views to a greater extent during the polls.
3. Rumors about a possible rotation of the parliament’s speaker.
Recently, more and more information has been spreading that President Vladimir Zelensky would like to replace Dmitry Razumkov as speaker of parliament with another candidate, for example, Ruslan Stefanchuk.
Nevertheless, to promote the issue of changing the speaker, it is necessary to publicly explain what is wrong with D. Razumkov and find votes in support of another candidate.
Dmitry Razumkov is increasingly demonstrating a desire for political autonomy from Vladimir Zelensky and his team. This suggests that the Speaker of the Parliament is playing a separate political game and, against the background of declining ratings, irritates the Office of President (OP). Moreover, more and more often his name appears in various polls and sociological studies.
According to a survey by the Razumkov Center, Vladimir Zelensky lost in the trust rating to D. Razumkov with a score of 32% and 26.5%, respectively. At the same time, the balance of trust is with the president (-39%), and with Razumkov (-21%). In the presidential rating Razumkov, according to the results of the "Rating", has the support of 3.2%, and according to the "Razumkov Center" - 2.1%.
At the same time, the speaker quite often demonstrates a position different from the presidential line on some issues. In particular, he expressed his disagreement with the appointment of Yuriy Vitrenko and Sergei Shkarlet as ministers. In parallel with the president, he introduced a separate bill aimed at solving the "constitutional crisis", moreover, the parliament took his version as a basis. Also, at the meeting of the National Security and Defense Council, Dmitry Razumkov abstained from voting for sanctions against three TV channels - "112 Ukraine", "ZIK" and "Newsone".
Also, at the beginning of the fifth session of parliament, Razumkov shot a promotional video "Getting Started", which in content resembles an election campaign, and leaves more questions than answers.
While the president and his political forces are smoothly drifting from the moderate to the nationalist electoral segment, Dmitry Razumkov is trying to adhere to more neutral positions, which were initially declared by the "Servants of the People" as their ideological guidelines. This creates the impression that he is equidistant from all political forces. Within the "Servant of the People" faction, D. Razumkov has a small group of deputies who are guided precisely by him, against the background of the general fragmentation and disintegration of the mono-majority.
The speaker himself denies his ambitions to take the top post In any case, Razumkov's political prospects will largely depend on his readiness to enter into open confrontation with the president and his team.
4. Dissemination of information on aggravation along the contact line.
In the last week in the war zone in Donbas, according to reports of several media outlets and officials, there has been an exacerbation of armed confrontation and an intensification of shelling.
Since the beginning of the year, the losses of the Ukrainian side amounted to about 10 people.
Against this background, Leonid Kravchuk and Arsen Avakov made tough statements;
Former President Leonid Kravchuk said that the ceasefire in Donbas is no longer observed and Ukraine should be ready for any unpredictable actions by the aggressor.
In turn, Interior Minister Arseny Avakov made a similar statement. He suggested that the separatists became more active due to the sanctions that the NSDC imposed against opposition channels. Avakov also said that the president was forced to send the commander of the Armed Forces General Ruslan Khomchak to the front line to check the state of combat readiness of the Ukrainian army.
Aggravation at the front coincided with the discussion of the implementation of the Minsk Agreements in the UN Security Council, which took place on February 11. The parties blamed each other and did not seek a compromise or common ground. EU countries from the Normandy format - Germany and France - this time spoke extremely sharply towards Russia. The reason for this is the general deterioration in Russian-European relations in the last month.
The Security Council concluded that in the future it will be difficult to maintain a truce if there is no progress in the humanitarian and political spheres, but there is no alternative to the Minsk agreements.
Earlier, the Special Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office in Ukraine and the contact group Heidi Grau said that the discussion of the settlement of the conflict in Donbas had reached a dead end.
Analyzing this news, it is worth noting that in fact, it is difficult for us to judge how reliable the information about the aggravation on the line of contact has been recently. Strictly speaking, before the New Year, the Ukrainian authorities tried to actively promote themselves on the topic of the "longest truce", and therefore information about incidents on the contact line could be purposefully hushed up. Now, when a general political trend has emerged in the country to suppress dissent under the pretext of “fighting Russian information aggression”, the authorities again needed talk of war to intimidate ordinary people and justify “tightening the screws” for political opponents in their minds.
On the other hand, after Joe Biden came to power in the United States, geopolitical tensions between NATO and Russia will inevitably grow in Eastern Europe (including Ukraine). Within the framework of this confrontation, a new aggravation in the Donbas is not ruled out on the initiative of external players behind one or another side of the conflict.
FOREIGN POLICY.
Briefly:
In foreign policy, the main trends continue to be the further escalation of the US-China confrontation, which will inevitably affect the entire world politics in the coming years; the strengthening of contradictions between Russia and the structures of the European Union as an organization oriented towards Washington and the US Democratic Party, with a more pragmatic position of the governments of the largest EU countries, including Germany and France, striving to build mutually beneficial economic relations with the Russian Federation; and the desire of the "collective West", including the EU, the IMF, and its other structures, to force Ukraine to reform the judicial system, giving control over it to international partners.
1. The telephone conversation between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping confirmed the trend towards the continuation of the US-China confrontation.
On the night of February 10-11, the new American President Joseph Biden had a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The talks that took place demonstrated the continuing tension in US-China relations.
It should be noted that the tightening of Washington's policy towards Beijing by the American establishment, which began under former President Donald Trump, was mainly perceived as a manifestation of the tyranny of the then owner of the White House. In turn, Biden during the presidential elections was positioned, if not as a pro-Chinese candidate, then as a person capable of restoring relations between the United States and China. However, the public rhetoric of American officials and statements made following the talks between the leaders of the two countries demonstrated that the persisting level of confrontation does not depend on the figure of the American president but the objectively existing geopolitical and economic competition.
According to a White House press release, President Biden, in a conversation with his Chinese counterpart, stated “fundamental concern over Beijing’s actions, China’s unfair economic policy, repression in Hong Kong, human rights violations in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and aggressive actions. in the region, including Taiwan. "The heads of state also discussed the fight against coronavirus, climate change, and issues of preventing the proliferation of weapons.
In turn, China considered the issues of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the XUAR "internal affairs" of the country, and also called on the United States to respect the key interests of the PRC and "act with caution." At the same time, both sides made diplomatic curtsies, stating that they were in favor of mutually beneficial cooperation and focus on results, but this form of politeness could hardly be misleading.
Recall that during the hearings in the Senate, then still the candidate for the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken agreed that China is carrying out genocide against the Uighurs. Also, last week, he praised Trump for his tough approach to China. Biden's inauguration ceremony was attended for the first time in more than forty years by a representative from Taiwan, which Beijing views as a rebellious province. Last week, as we wrote about in a previous report, the US destroyer John S. McCain sailed through the Taiwan Strait in a sign of "the US commitment to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region."
We can state that under the new presidential administration, the trend continues for the continuation of the US-Chinese confrontation caused by geopolitical and economic rivalry. It can be predicted that the United States will increase sanctions pressure on China, and will also form a military-political bloc in the Indo-Pacific region, directed against the PRC. Over the medium term, this significantly increases instability and increases the likelihood of a direct escalation between the two countries.
2. The crisis in relations between Russia and the European Union: a new escalation in connection with the case of Alexei Navalny.
In the outgoing week, one of the most significant phenomena in world politics was the sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the European Union. The reason for this was the aggravated confrontation between the Russian opposition and the authorities, caused by the criminal prosecution of Alexei Navalny, and the massive protests that continued for almost a month.
Let us remind you that the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell was in Moscow on a visit from 4 to 6 February. In the capital of Russia, he announced the existence of areas in relations between the Russian Federation and the EU, in which cooperation and the achievement of good results are possible. Brussels, he said, is in favor of continuing the dialogue with Moscow, despite all the difficulties.
However, upon his return to Brussels, Borrell criticized Russia, which is increasingly moving away from the European Union and perceives democratic values as an existential threat. Also, according to him, Russia is not interested in continuing a constructive dialogue with Europe.
Also, the head of European diplomacy called for the introduction of new anti-Russian sanctions. His position was supported by the French Foreign Ministry, which called for "a single, firm and universal response from the European Union." According to Borrell, the normalization of relations between Russia and the European Union will not take place until the Minsk agreements are implemented. Considering that the Russian Federation does not recognize itself as a party to the Minsk Agreements we are talking about the Europeans setting unrealizable requirements in advance and their readiness to continue pressure on Russia.
Germany took the opposite position. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas opposed the "destruction of bridges" with Russia. Apparently, in Germany, they fear that the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions will lead to a halt in Nord Stream 2, which will contradict the interests of German business.
Against the background of aggravated relations between Russia and the European Union, the Russian opposition has intensified. Thus, the head of Navalny's headquarters, Leonid Volkov, who had previously announced the suspension of protests until spring, suddenly changed his position and announced a new protest action on February 14. It is characteristic that he did this after he took part in an online conference with representatives of several EU countries, Great Britain and the United States.
Against the background of increased pressure on Russia, first Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced the country's readiness to break off relations with the European Union if the EU imposes new sanctions, and after the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov confirmed that if Russia is faced with new restrictions, "She must be ready for independence in advance."
In itself, the severing of ties between Russia and the European Union over Navalny seems incredible. Nevertheless, even in the event of the termination of ties with European bureaucrats, the country will retain contacts with much more capable national governments of European countries. At the same time, the Russian opposition will continue to rock the situation in the country on the eve of new sanctions against Moscow.
3. Gazprom's statements on the completion of the installation of Nord Stream-2 across Danish territory in a couple of months, the rhetoric of Germany and France.
On February 9, the head of Gazprom's investor relations department Anton Demchenko announced that the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in Danish territorial waters is scheduled to be completed in April 2021.
Thus, the Russian company confirmed the information that was published the day before on the website of the Danish Maritime Administration. “Until the end of April 2021, two lines of the gas pipeline will be laid between positions 1 and 4,” the text said.
Taking these statements into account, it becomes clear that the construction of Nord Stream 2 can be fully completed by mid-late summer this year.
The position of the German leadership regarding the gas pipeline is known and has been repeatedly voiced by high-ranking officials of Germany. It consists in the fact that "SP-2" is primarily an economic project, the completion of which is in the interests of Germany since in the future it will make it the main gas hub of the EU.
The fact that Berlin does not intend to demand a freeze of the project because of the situation with Alexei Navalny was recently announced by the newly elected leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union party and the most likely candidate for the post of chancellor after Angela Merkel's departure, Armin Laschet.
This week, French President Emmanuel Macron said that he "fully shares" the position of German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. He said this at a joint press conference following talks with the German leader.
Thus, the completion of the gas pipeline is currently guaranteed by two economic and political "locomotives" of the EU - Germany, and France. Construction works are being carried out in a planned manner and the approximate deadlines for their completion are already known.
All this makes the prospect of stopping the project ghostly with the help of diplomatic pressure on Germany from the United States or the Brussels European bureaucracy, oriented towards Washington.
4. Criticism of Ukraine in the report of the European Parliament on its implementation of the Association Agreement.
On February 10, the European Parliament, by 526 votes, approved a resolution on Ukraine's implementation of the Association Agreement.
In addition to the protocol phrases about the recognition of Kyiv’s European integration aspirations, the document contains rather harsh criticism of the Ukrainian side. It concerns mainly the issues of corruption, insufficient prompt fulfillment of the requirements of Western creditors to reform the judicial system, and violations of human rights associated with rampant radicalism.
Specifically, the document says:
"Despite notable progress, widespread corruption continues to impede the reform process in Ukraine, and the ongoing constitutional crisis threatens the ability of the president and the Verkhovna Rada to reform."
Also, the European Parliament rapporteur on the Ukrainian issue, MP from the European People's Party group Michael Haller added that "the oligarchs seem to be restoring political influence" and "some additional measures still need to be taken to avoid a rollback, with an emphasis on the judicial system."
These statements reflect the main intention of Ukraine's international creditors at the moment - an attempt to force Kyiv to reform the judicial system with the involvement of “international experts” in the judicial approval process. Europeans and Americans need this to gain control over the Ukrainian judicial system and eliminate those timid attempts at an independent policy, which, paradoxically, are carried out by large national capital in our country.
It is also symptomatic that the EP's report contains criticism of Ukraine for the deterioration of the human rights situation. Here's what it says about it:
“The EP regrets that the political climate in the country has deteriorated when intimidation, hate speech, and political pressure are widely used for political purposes; Urges the authorities to strongly condemn and ban the activities of extremist and hateful groups and websites, such as the Peacemaker, that create tensions in society and misuse the personal data of hundreds of people, including journalists, politicians and members of minority groups. ”
Of course, this expression of concern about human rights in Ukraine appeared in the resolution of the European Parliament mainly for show. It is no longer possible to ignore the facts of the growth of radicalism in Ukraine, and the absence of even a nominal reaction to them would give rise to accuse the European authorities of double standards.
Nevertheless, the Europeans are unlikely to go further on this issue than the light and careful criticism described above. In general, they perceive the current Ukrainian authorities as completely loyal to themselves and corresponding to their political interests, which means that they will turn a blind eye to the issues of observance of human rights and democratic standards by these authorities.
ECONOMY.
Briefly:
Two trends continue to develop actively in the Ukrainian economy. The first of them is an increase in the latent and explicit tax burden for citizens, small and medium-sized businesses, caused by the need to repay old IMF loans and get new ones. The second is the lobbying by representatives of the Ukrainian big capital of their interests as industry monopolists through people controlled by them, integrated into the power structures.
1. Plans to further increase tariffs for housing and communal services.
From the very beginning of 2021, gas tariffs have increased, provoking protests across the country and a downgrade of Vladimir Zelensky's rating. An interim decision of the authorities was to fix the gas price for the population at UAH 6.99 per cubic meter.
On February 9, a Memorandum was signed to freeze tariff increases until the end of the current heating season (relatively speaking, until April 1, 2021). This Memorandum lays down the difference between the price for the population and the price for intermediaries. Intermediaries buy gas at a higher price, receive compensation from the state budget, and only then sell gas to the population for 6.99 hryvnias. At first, they wanted to shift the burden of payments to the local authorities, but in the end, they decided to compensate them at the expense of the state budget.
On February 10, Naftogaz announced the price of PSO at 7.33 hryvnia per cubic meter, excluding transportation costs and excluding VAT. The main beneficiaries in this situation are regional energy distributors (“oblenergos”), which will receive compensation from the state budget through the purchase of gas at a higher price and its sale cheaper to the end consumer.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects an increase in gas prices for the population in 2021 by at least 20 percent, in 2022 - by 10 percent, and 2023-2024 - by 5 percent.
As part of the payment of debts to the IMF, it will be interested in the adoption of bill No. 3613 on the restructuring of debts of citizens for communal services with the right to deduct funds from salaries to pay off debts, and debts for communal services are equated to alimony in terms of ways of deducting funds.
The above news testifies to the continuation of the course of total fiscalization of the population to knock out funds from it to repay loans to the IMF and other large international borrowers. In the coming months and even years, it is the increase in the tax burden (hidden and explicit) that will remain the main reason for the deterioration of the socio-economic situation of the population of Ukraine and the growth of poverty in our country.
2. The head of the National Bank proposes to create a "credit" court.
On February 11, it became known that the Head of the NBU Kirill Shevchenko insists on the creation of a separate court in Ukraine to protect creditors.
Shevchenko admits that he is discussing the issue of creating a credit court with the IMF.
The fund is concerned about the state of court cases around banks and the percentage of non-performing loans in the Ukrainian banking system.
The idea of a “credit” court continues the trend of duplicating the architecture of power in Ukraine along with the creation of NABU, NAPK, SAP, VAKS, BEB, given the relative sovereignty of the judiciary (for example, the recent decisions of the Constitutional Court, which provoked a protest from Western ambassadors and their lobbyists inside the country).
Every time the Ukrainian courts rule in favor of Ukrainian business (Kolomoisky, Zhivago, Surkis brothers), the IMF perceives this as Ukraine's resistance in terms of raising funds to repay loans to the Fund.
The aforementioned newly created structures do not show a high level of efficiency in their work, and the “credit” court runs the risk of repeating the same fate, working selectively, and not systematically, to please the IMF.
3. The IMF mission in Ukraine has stopped working. The decision to grant a new loan has not been made.
On February 13, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Gösta Ljungman said that the IMF mission had completed its work in Ukraine, but the decision to revise the "stand by" program was not made.
Following the results of the mission's activity, it was reported that in the course of work its representatives discussed with their Ukrainian colleagues “strengthening the management of the National Bank of Ukraine, improving the legislative and regulatory framework for banking supervision and financial rehabilitation, as well as measures aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit in the medium term”. They also discussed "legislative initiatives regarding the restoration and strengthening of anti-corruption infrastructure and legal proceedings and measures in the energy sector."
The above is a list of the IMF's requirements for Ukraine to provide another loan. Among them - increasing taxes, strengthening control over the financial activity of citizens, and the implementation of judicial reform, taking into account the interests of Western partners.
CONCLUSION.
Summarizing the above, we note that:
Firstly, the main trends in Ukraine's domestic policy at the moment are a decrease in the ratings of the current government and, as a consequence, a transition to a policy of “tightening the screws” for political opponents (a ban on broadcasting TV channels, whipping up rhetoric about “information war” and attracting public attention to aggravation on the line of contact in Donbas). In addition to the "stick" this week, the President's Office decided to use the "carrot" in the form of thirty weekly forums, the task of which is to throw positive news stories about the activities of the authorities into society. In the absence of fulfillment of the most important election promises (about establishing peace, lowering tariffs, and “end of the era of poverty”), this technological move is unlikely to help the authorities restore ratings.
Secondly, against the background of falling ratings of the president and the Servant of the People party, Parliament Speaker Dmitry Razumkov is increasingly asserting himself as an independent politician. Taking a "special position" on many odious and dubious decisions of the authorities from a legal point of view, he seeks to form an image of a "balanced and prudent politician". In general, such a tactic of the speaker can be successful, but only on the condition that he does not advertise himself too actively and does not allow a "false start", after which all the main political players will perceive him as a serious competitor and begin to attack in a coordinated manner.
Thirdly, in foreign policy, the main trends continue to be the further growth of the US-Chinese confrontation, which will inevitably affect the entire world politics in the coming years, as well as the intensification of contradictions between Russia and the Brussels bureaucracy, oriented towards Washington and the US Democratic Party, with a more pragmatic the positions of the governments of the largest EU countries, including Germany and France, striving to build mutually beneficial economic relations with the Russian Federation. In the future, we will inevitably see the continuation of these trends in the form of new "trade wars" and geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, completion, and launch of Nord Stream 2, and the introduction of new personal anti-Russian sanctions.
Fourth, two trends continue to develop actively in the Ukrainian economy. The first of them is an increase in the latent and explicit tax burden on citizens, small and medium-sized businesses, caused by the need to return old IMF loans and receive new ones. The second is the lobbying by representatives of the Ukrainian big capital of their interests as industry monopolists through people controlled by them, integrated into the power structures.
Edited by:
Ruslan Bortnik,
Daniil Bogatyrev.
The authors:
Daniil Bogatyrev,
Maxim Semyonov,
Oksana Krasovskaya,
Andrey Timchenko.
