Авторы публикации
The most large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine on November 15 summed up the intrigue of recent weeks regarding possible negotiations between Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the US, and the EU, information about the possibility of which has been actively circulating in the media over the past few weeks. The safe retreat of Russian troops from the right bank of the Dnieper and Kherson, the safe visit of the President of Ukraine to Kherson, and the two-week absence of shelling of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure also reinforced this opinion.
The Russian Federation and Ukraine did not take advantage of the negotiation window at the G20 summit in Indonesia. On November 14-15, the parties represented by the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky (in a speech at the G-20) and the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, N. Patrushev, again exchanged uncompromising ultimatums from the position of "winners in the war.” Massive shelling of Ukraine's critical infrastructure is, in fact, the Kremlin's response to the speech of President V. Zelensky during the G20 summit, in which he made it clear that to start negotiations, it is necessary to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine (within the borders of 1991), and that the Russian Federation must pay reparations to Ukraine and punish war criminals. Thus, Ukraine has officially indicated that it does not intend to make any territorial concessions, and the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian troops will continue until the complete liberation of all territories. The course of the negotiations may also have been influenced by the statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, who, in a conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley, said that "the Ukrainian military will not accept any negotiations, agreements or compromise decisions," he called the "leaving" by Russia "of all occupied territories" as the primary condition. This is a statement by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, in support of the position of the President of Ukraine, or is it an independent step with a political connotation.
Now both Ukraine and the Russian Federation are counting on a military victory to a greater extent: Ukraine, by liberating territories, the Russian Federation, through the destruction of the Ukrainian rear and social infrastructure. Which, in turn, means not only the continuation of the war but also the escalation of hostilities shortly.
As a result, on November 15, Ukraine was subjected to the most significant missile strikes since the beginning of the war. About 100 missiles (worth $700–900 million) were fired at critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities and drones. As a result, at least 30 civilian infrastructure facilities were damaged, including 15 power grid facilities, and emergency blackouts were introduced throughout the country. As of 11/16/2022, entire cities and regions (including Kyiv, its area) were partially left without power supply (about 10 million subscribers).
Thus, the Russian Federation puts pressure on the authorities and society of Ukraine, forcing them to accept the conditions of the “Russian world.” The implementation of the strategy to create an energy crisis in Ukraine continues due to humanitarian and political problems. In addition, strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure deplete a significant part of Ukrainian air defense assets and undermine the ability to ensure the functioning of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (logistics, repairs, support).
Based on the preceding, it can be assumed that the retreat of the RF Armed Forces from the right bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region could occur without formal agreements between the parties. It was primarily caused by problems with the supply of the RF Armed Forces on the right bank of the Dnieper. However, it can be considered an open offer of the Russian Federation to Ukraine to conclude a truce, but it was never accepted. In any case, now this is a significant political and symbolic victory for Ukraine and the defeat of the Russian Federation, which will significantly affect public opinion both in the countries participating in the war and the world. The retreat from the city of Kherson will inflict a significant image blow on the Russian Federation and increase internal instability. Potentially, this is fraught with undermining the confidence in the Russian leadership of a substantial part of Russian society, strengthening both the radical party and the party of supporters of the war’s end. After the retreat of Russian troops to the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have de-occupied 200 settlements over the current week, covering more than 5,000 square kilometers. Shortly, a struggle for the Kinburn Spit is not ruled out - a peninsula opposite the city of Ochakiv, from where Russian troops can fire on the city of Mykolaiv or a landing on the Right Bank (Energodar region), a new Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporizhia direction.
In general, the defeat in Right-Bank Ukraine (near Kyiv and Kherson) may force the Russian Federation to change its strategic goals in the war against Ukraine for the third time. At first, the Kremlin planned a "blitzkrieg" with the capture of Kyiv, then the primary efforts were directed at the Donbas and the southern regions of Ukraine. The Russian retreat from Kherson may mean that the Russian military leadership plans to turn the river. Dnieper to the division line of Ukraine and try to capture the entire eastern (left-bank) Ukraine.
Now we should expect an aggravation of hostilities in other sectors of the front and attempts by the Russian Federation to block the defeat in the Kherson direction with successes in different places or by intensifying missile and bomb attacks (which can already be observed) on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure or even bridges across the Dnieper.
Globally tension will also increase. Recently, one can observe a general intensification of discussions in the world community regarding the situation in Ukraine. It is likely that the approach of winter, fraught with rising inflation and energy and food prices, provoked talk in the US and the EU about the need for negotiations. Also, the EU and the US fear a new large wave of refugees from Ukraine in the event of continued Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
In addition, representatives of the US Republican Party are increasingly demanding control over the spending of significant funds allocated to Ukraine. So the White House asked Congress for an additional $37.7 billion to help Ukraine. The funds are planned to be used for defense equipment, humanitarian aid, and support for nuclear security. It should be borne in mind that after the elections to the US Congress (the prominent leader in assisting Ukraine) in the House of Representatives, the Republicans now have the majority. In the future, allocating regular financial and military assistance to Ukraine may become more complicated. In addition, the attention of the administration of US President D. Biden will be more focused on internal political confrontation, which may also hurt the intensity of aid to Ukraine in the future.
It is important to note that the dialogue between the US and Russian intelligence services on strategic stability is still ongoing. Negotiations between CIA Director William Burns and Russian Foreign Intelligence Director Sergey Naryshkin regarding the risks of a nuclear threat may mean that the non-use of atomic weapons can act as a kind of consolidated red line in the Ukrainian-Russian conflict for most countries, including Russia's allies. In particular, China stressed that they consider the threat of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine to be irresponsible, which they are synchronized with the position of the United States. At the same time, on the one hand, we can assume that Beijing is dissatisfied with the nuclear rhetoric of its strategic partner Russia. On the other hand, this may also apply to the version broadcast by the Russian Federation about the preparation of a “dirty bomb” by Ukraine.
Regarding hostilities, the struggle for military initiative continues on the Donetsk front. The army of the Russian Federation is advancing in the Bakhmut, Avdiivsky, and Novopavlovsky directions (towards the city of Vugledar). The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to take control of the Svatovo-Kremennaya highway in the settlement area. Belogorivka in the Lugansk region.
In Ukraine's domestic politics, the process of nationalizing strategic enterprises (associated with Konstantin Zhivago, Igor Kolomoisky, Vyacheslav Boguslaev, and Konstantin Grigorishin) begins, marking the beginning of the most extensive reallocation of property in Ukraine since independence. Significantly, the assets of the oligarchs fell under “nationalization,” less than others seen in supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state in the war against the Russian Federation. We are talking about a decision to alienate assets worth almost $1 billion. The President of Ukraine and his team thus demonstrate the fight against the oligarchs, which is positively perceived by Ukrainian society and supported by Western partners. But the primary goal of nationalization likely was to gain complete control over enterprises (the list can be expanded from time to time) and their financial and material resources. In the nationalization of enterprises, the risks of abuse of a monopoly position played their role. Nationalized companies act as local monopolists in their markets. So the initiators of the decision saw the risks that these enterprises could abuse their monopoly position: raise prices, blackmail the state regarding any decisions in favor of their business, or even cooperate with the aggressor. Also, nationalization will lead to the “settlement” of debts to Ukrnafta for gas from Naftogaz. The volume of gas claimed by Ukrnafta was estimated at 8 to 9 billion cubic meters, while 9 billion cubic meters of gas at current market prices is over UAH 300 billion (about $7.5 billion).
military situation
Combat action.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: The Armed Forces of Ukraine repelled attacks in the areas of the settlement of Masyutovka and the settlement of Orlyanka.
In Donbas: The Russian army is advancing in the Bakhmut, Avdiivsky, and Novopavlivsky directions (towards the city of Vugledar). Attacks on the city of Bakhmut, the town of Maryinka, the city of Avdiivka, Soledar, as well as on the settlement Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Myasozharivka, Makiivka, and Belogorivka in the Lugansk region. In the Donetsk region - in the settlements Torske Krasnogorivka, Verkhnekamenske, Pervomayske, Nevelske, Maryinka, and Pavlivka. The reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not mention Opytne near the city of Avdiivka, which, as stated in the "DPR,” was captured by the RF Armed Forces. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the village of Makiivka near the city of Svatovo (Lugansk region).
The situation in the South: after the Russian troops retreat to the river's left bank. Dnipro, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have de-occupied 200 settlements, including the city of Kherson, over 5,000 square kilometers on the right bank of the Dnieper this week. In the liberated settlements of the Kherson region, stabilization measures are being taken, including demining. Thus, the front line in the Kherson region was established along the river. Dnieper. About the military operation on the left bank of the Dnieper – in the settlement of Oleshki, the settlement of New Kakhovka, the settlement of Kakhovka, and the settlement of Hola Pristan, as some Ukrainian Internet resources wrote about, the report of the General Staff does not yet say.
Black Sea-Azov direction: there are battles on the Kingsburg Spit, stormed by Ukrainian troops. At the same time, the result still needs to be determined. The Black Sea has four Russian launch vehicles with twenty Kalibr-type cruise missiles. There are 14 Russian ships off the coast of the temporarily occupied Crimea.
The situation in the Kherson region.
This week the situation in the Kherson region was changing rapidly. After the RF Armed Forces withdrew to the left bank of the river. Dnipro, the Armed Forces of Ukraine restored control over the entire right-bank part of the Kherson region, including the city of Kherson and part of the previously occupied Mykolaiv region. The undermining by the Russians during the retreat of bridges and crossings over the river is confirmed. Dnieper. The RF Armed Forces form a line of defense on the left bank of the Dnieper. It is reported that the Russians are partially evacuated from the left-bank part of the Kherson region. The evacuation concerns not only the 15-kilometer zone. In particular, they write about the transfer of the helicopter base in Chaplinka deep into the occupied territory. The city of Genichesk turned into the so-called. "capital" of the occupied part of the Kherson region. At the same time, in the latest report of the General Staff, it was already reported that the Skadovsky and Genichesk regions of the Russian Federation were leaving settlements and leaving in the direction of Crimea.
The governor, the leadership of the police, and the SBU returned to the liberated city of Kherson. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky visited Kherson a few days after Ukrainian troops liberated it. The day before, the President said that investigators had received reports of more than 400 war crimes in the Kherson regions after the withdrawal of Russian troops.
Now stabilization measures are being taken in the liberated settlements of the Kherson region, including demining. There are problems with electricity and water in the city. In general, the situation in Kherson is close to a humanitarian catastrophe. Now there are no more than 80 thousand people in the town - with a pre-war population of 320 thousand. During the occupation, the Russian military damaged more than 1.5 km of high-voltage lines that fed the city. However, generators are going to be delivered to Kherson.
Residents of the liberations of the right-bank part of the Kherson region are asked to evacuate due to the high likelihood of shelling. With such an appeal, the head of the UVA, Yaroslav Yanushevich, addressed them. Recall that earlier, even before the liberation, the inhabitants of the right-bank part of the Kherson region called for the evacuation of the Russians.
Now the front line runs along the Dnieper. Therefore all the coastal cities of the Kherson region (including Kherson) are becoming front-line with all the ensuing consequences in the form of constant shelling.
Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov, in an interview with Reuters. He noted that the hostilities would not be so active in winter, which is beneficial for all the warring parties since there would be time for rest.
Combat map.
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Shelling of the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine.
On November 15, Ukraine was again subjected to the most extensive series of missile attacks from the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war. About 100 missiles were fired at critical Ukrainian infrastructure facilities. As a result, 30 civilian facilities were damaged, including 15 power grid facilities, and more than 10 million subscribers were disconnected from the power supply at that time. Deputy Head of the Office of President Kyrylo Tymoshenko said, “There were hits. We had about 15 power facilities damaged in different regions. Because of this, there are now blackouts in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Donetsk, Dnepropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Poltava, Rivne, Sumy, Ternopil, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Chernivtsi and Chernihiv regions. He also added that most hits were recorded in the center and the north of Ukraine. In Kyiv, the situation is challenging; particular emergency shutdown schedules are being introduced. In Lviv, 80% of the city remained without electricity. In Kryvyi Rih, it was possible to raise 566 miners to the surface, locked underground after rocket attacks.
The light began to disappear throughout Moldova, which receives electricity partially from Ukraine.
Ukrenergo urged citizens to prepare for " hard days. “ in connection with yesterday's missile attack on the Ukrainian energy system. " A cold snap is approaching, electricity consumption will grow, and the network load will also. Therefore, we ask you to treat the shutdowns with understanding, which will be implemented as necessary," Ukrenergo said. They warn that it is necessary to be prepared for significant interruptions in power supply and have the necessary supply of water, charging devices, and power banks.
During the missile attacks on Ukraine, two missiles hit Poland’s territory near Lublin. Two people are known to have died. Prime Minister of Poland M. Morawiecki convened an emergency meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers on National Security and Defense. Poland officially announced the strike with a Russian-made missile and called the Russian ambassador, demanding that he immediately provide detailed explanations about the incident.
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation believes that the statements of the Polish media and officials about the alleged fall of Russian missiles in the area of the settlement of Przewoduv are a deliberate provocation to escalate the situation.
Warsaw is going to activate Article 4 of NATO, - says the representative of the Polish government, Piotr Müller. Article 4 states that the parties " will hold joint consultations when, in the opinion of either of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened ."
In his evening address, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said: “ The longer Russia feels impunity, the more threats there will be for everyone who can get Russian missiles. Hit missiles on NATO territory. This is a Russian missile attack on collective security. This is a very significant escalation. We must act ." - said V. Zelensky.
Brussels is awaiting Poland's appeal to NATO. NATO's reaction will depend on Warsaw's statements about the ownership of the fallen missiles, the media reported, citing a diplomatic source in Brussels. The US State Department said they were "taking time" to deal with the situation in Poland and were collecting data on the incident. US President Joe Biden called it unlikely that Russian troops fired the missile. The US must determine whether the missile drop in Poland was an accident or a deliberate act. The US does not seek to escalate the situation. Against the background of increased tensions due to the fall of a rocket in Poland, China also called to remain calm.
From the United States, there will be no definitely harsh reaction from the NATO countries since they have repeatedly stated that they do not seek to enter into an open conflict with the Russian Federation. In response to such an incident with missiles (so far, it is a single one), the allied countries will likely limit themselves to tightening their rhetoric against the Russian Federation. Reuters later reported that: " D. Biden informed his G7 and NATO partners that a Ukrainian air defense missile caused the explosion in Poland." For their part, in Ukraine, they favor a joint further detailed study of the incident and ask that Ukrainian specialists be given access to the scene of the events.
The situation regarding peace negotiations.
Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from the right bank of the Dnieper and the liberation of the Armed Forces of Kherson, statements in Europe about the need for a dialogue between Ukraine and Russia have resumed. Many Western media, citing various sources, wrote that The United States and its allies are pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Thus, the American business newspaper The Wall Street Journal reports that during the last meeting with the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, Assistant to the President of the United States for National Security Jake Sullivan suggested that he think about "realistic" positions in negotiations with the Russian Federation, including revising the declared goal of returning the annexed Crimea. It is likely that the approach of winter, fraught with rising inflation and energy and food prices, provoked talk in the US and the EU about the need for negotiations. Also, the EU and the US fear a new large wave of refugees from Ukraine in the event of continued Russian missile strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
In general, one can observe a general intensification of discussions in the world community regarding the situation in Ukraine.
In Ankara, negotiations were held between representatives of Russia and the United States. CIA Director William Burns met with Russian Foreign Intelligence Director Sergei Naryshkin to discuss detained US citizens and nuclear risks. It is reported that the director of the CIA did not discuss the Ukraine settlement with the Russian Federation representative. Later it became known that CIA Director William Burns also held a meeting with President of Ukraine V. Zelensky in Kyiv on November 15, when the capital and other regions were subjected to rocket attacks from the Russian Federation.
On Monday, as part of the East Asia Summit, US President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have agreed that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will visit China soon. The two leaders also agreed to instruct their administrations to deepen cooperation on climate, economics, and food security. D. Biden and Xi Jinping also oppose the threat of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
At the same time, during the Association of East Asian Nations summit in Cambodia, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang stressed the irresponsibility of threats to use nuclear weapons, making it clear that Beijing is dissatisfied with the nuclear rhetoric of its strategic partner Russia. As writes Reuters, quoting a US official: “ There was undoubtedly some discomfort in Beijing about what we saw in terms of reckless rhetoric and activity from Russia,” even though Russia is technically a partner of China. “ I think, also indisputably, that China is probably both surprised and even somewhat embarrassed by the course of the Russian military operation," the official said.
Also, this week, the G20 summit kicked off in Bali, Indonesia. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky addressed representatives of the G20 countries via video link. He stressed that to start the peace process, Russia must withdraw its troops, pay compensation for the damage caused to Ukraine, and recognize its territorial integrity. Also, V. Zelensky announced his "peace formula" of 10 points:
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radiation and nuclear safety.
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food security.
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energy security.
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the release of all prisoners and residents of Ukraine who were taken to Russian territory,
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restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine,
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withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities,
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restoring justice,
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countering ecocide,
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escalation prevention,
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fixing the end of the war.
The president also called for an international conference to "strengthen a key element of the post-war security architecture" and prevent a recurrence of Russian aggression.
On the eve of V. Zelensky's speech at the G20 summit, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, in a conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States, Mark Milley, said that "the Ukrainian military will not accept any negotiations, agreements or compromise decisions, “he called the main condition " leaving " Russia " all occupied territories. "At the same time, it is difficult to say whether this statement by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V.Zaluzhny supports the position of the President of Ukraine or is it an independent step with a political connotation.
Following the summit, the leaders of the G20 countries of the G20 adopted a joint declaration. The document states that the majority of the G20 member countries sharply condemned the conflict in Ukraine, but there are also " other opinions about this situation ." The draft declaration states that they “ denounce in the strongest terms the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine” and demand “its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine.” It is noted that the war in Ukraine exacerbates existing problems in the global economy, limits its growth, increases inflation, disrupts supply chains, increases energy and food insecurity, and also increases risks to financial stability. The G20 countries noted the importance of the grain deal, urging all parties involved to continue its implementation. It is essential that the Russian Federation spoke in favor of continuing the grain deal with the condition of controlling deliveries to countries in need.
It is reported that an hour or two before the massive rocket attack on Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov, who represented the Russian Federation in Bali, completed his program at the G20 summit ahead of schedule and urgently flew to Russia.
At this time in the Russian Federation, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, made a statement about the US desire to “ weaken, divide and destroy ” Russia and complete the process of de-sovereignization of Europe. “The goal of the United States is to weaken, divide and ultimately destroy our country. To do this, they, sowing hatred for the multinational Russian people, support the development of ultra-right extremist and nationalist ideas preached by Bandera formations that have revived in Ukraine, ” he said. In addition, the Secretary of the Security Council noted that The Russian Federation would continue the war and the tasks of the Russian so-called. "SVO" will be implemented, despite military assistance to Ukraine from the West.
Accordingly, the parties make it clear that there is no question of any behind-the-scenes compromise solutions to the conflict. And now we should expect an aggravation of hostilities or an intensification of missile and bomb strikes (which can already be observed) on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. At the global level, tensions will also escalate.
The internal situation in Ukraine
Five strategic enterprises will be nationalized in Ukraine.
The National Commission for Securities and the Stock Market decided on the forced alienation of the shares of PJSC Ukrnafta, PJSC Ukrtatnafta, JSC Motor Sich, PJSC AvtoKrAZ, PJSC Zaporizhtransformator into state ownership. Igor Kolomoisky and his business partners owned a 42% stake in Ukrnafta. Naftogaz owns 50%+1 share in Ukrnafta. The company produces almost 90% of oil in Ukraine and is one of the largest owners of filling stations. PJSC "Ukrtatnafta" owns the largest oil refinery in the country, located in Kremenchuk. Until recently, Motor Sich JSC was owned by Vyacheslav Boguslaev, who was arrested in October for collaborative activities and aiding the aggressor state. PJSC "AvtoKrAZ" was controlled by the people's deputy of many convocations from the party "Fatherland" Konstantin Zhivago. The owner of PJSC "Zaporozhtransformator" is Konstantin Grigorishin.
In general, it is about the decision to dispose of nearly $1 billion of assets. (Forbes estimates that the current total value of these assets is $956.5 million. Before the war, they were worth 2.5 times more).
The initiators of the nationalization decision saw the risks that these enterprises could abuse their monopoly position: raise prices, blackmail the state regarding any decisions in favor of their business, or even cooperate with the aggressor. So, for example, "Motor Sich,” according to law enforcement officers, " Motor Sich even supplied aircraft engines to the Russian Federation and resorted to sabotage at the beginning of the Russian invasion. In particular, NSDC Secretary A. Danilov spoke back in 2021 about signs of a certain monopolization in the energy market. At that time, the possibility of introducing temporary administrations was considered, if necessary, if there was a threat to national security. Significantly, the assets of the oligarchs fell under “nationalization,” less than others seen in supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state in the war against the Russian Federation.
The nationalized enterprises were transferred to the Ministry of Defense. Now, all enterprises that have passed into total state control will have temporary administrations that first perform mobilization tasks.
Almost all mentioned enterprises or their owners or managers appear in criminal and legal proceedings. What became an additional argument in favor of the alienation of assets? President of Ukraine V. Zelensky does not exclude the possibility that similar decisions may be made about other strategic enterprises.
As Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal noted, nationalized enterprises should provide for the defense needs of the state in wartime. The operating companies will receive more orders and guarantees from the state. At the same time, the activities of the stopped enterprises will be resumed, and their workers will return to the production process.
Today, nationalized enterprises are in a different state. In particular, Ukrnafta (net profit - UAH 4.3 billion) continued to produce oil and gas as of March after the start of the Russian invasion but stopped the work of two gas processing plants. Subsequently, production decreased slightly; more than half of the processing accounted for Ukrtatnafta (net profit - UAH 42.3 million) (Kremenchuk Oil Refinery), which suffered as a result of three missile attacks in April-May. During the war, the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery was recognized as damaged by more than 40%, which is equivalent to its destruction. At the same time, the company's filling stations continue to operate. Only this enterprise can process oil produced in Ukraine in industrial volumes. In "Motor Sich" (aircraft gas turbine engines for aircraft, helicopters, and industrial gas turbine units, net profit - UAH 0.84 billion), the damage is less than 40%. AvtoKrAZ (net loss - UAH 1.3 billion) and Zaporizhtransformator (net loss - UAH 2.5 billion) operate but are in a state of bankruptcy. The nationalization of the last two enterprises may mean "nationalization of losses" - the removal of responsibility from their private owners.
Regarding the widespread assertion that enterprises can either be given to more profitable new owners or old ones after the victory - but having repaired and modernized them, having spent budget funds on this. The Cabinet of Ministers is developing a methodology that provides that if these assets are returned to the owners, they will also be issued invoices for the investments made. Suppose we are talking about capital investments for the restoration or modernization of enterprises. In that case, they will probably be financed using budgetary content, including through grants and other international financial assistance for specific projects and a particular result. Western partners are more likely to control these processes, which minimizes the possibility of a preparation scenario for old or new owners of the upgraded asset.
Another essential element of nationalization will be the issue of settling debts to Ukrnafta for gas from Naftogaz. The volume of gas claimed by Ukrnafta was estimated at 8 to 9 billion cubic meters, while 9 billion cubic meters of gas at current market prices cost more than UAH 300 billion.
Public opinion.
The Center for Sociological Research "Pulse" conducted a large closed study among the citizens of Ukraine, according to which:
Ukrainians determine that Ukraine is moving in the right direction - 89.2% (in the right direction - 36.5%; mainly in the right direction - 52.6%). In the wrong direction - 4.4%.
The actions of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, are approved by 83% (instead approved by 22% and fully approved by 61%). The most influential factors of approval or disapproval are the macro-region of residence (the level of support is higher in the Central and Western macro-regions than in the Donbas). Acceptance of the activities of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has only 27.5%.
If the elections for the President of Ukraine were taking place now, then the respondents would vote for such candidates: V. Zelensky is the undisputed leader and would have been elected in the first round, with a result of almost 62% (among all) and 73.5% (among those who made their choice) if elections were held in mid-October. In second place is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, with 9.7% (among all) and 11.6% (among those who have made their choice). In third place is the MP from European Solidarity and the 5th President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko; he is supported by 4.4% of the population of Ukraine among all and 5.3% (among those who have decided).
Regarding voting in parliamentary elections: the highest level of support so far Ukrainians express to the Servant of the People party - 29.7% (among all) and 47.9 % (among those who have decided), the second according to the voting results, if the elections were held now, was the party "European solidarity" - 7.6% (among all respondents) and 12.2% (among those who have decided whom to vote for). The party “Strength and Honor” closes the top three; 4.1% (among all) or 6.6% (who have decided for whom to vote) want to vote for it. Also, the Udar party would have made it to the Verkhovna Rada with 3.6% (among all) and 5.8% (among those who have decided whom to vote for). The passage of the electoral threshold of 5% in the Smart Politics party is questionable - 4.9% (among those who have decided whom to vote for) and the Batkivshchyna Party, which has 4.7% of support among those who have decided whom to vote for.
In general, the survey results show that most of Ukraine's citizens approve of the actions of the incumbent President of Ukraine, who is a separate leader and presidential rating support at the level of the second round of the 2019 elections. - 73.5%. In the parliamentary elections, the pro-government Servant of the People party also holds the lead (47.9%).
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
