In Ukraine, a significant deficit in the energy system continues to exist; because of this, the country has introduced long-term emergency and planned power outages. As Ukrenergo reported, this situation is the result of 6 targeted air attacks by the Russian Federation on the Ukrainian energy system. From the end of March 2024 to the beginning of June, Russian troops destroyed more than 9 GW of capacity in the Ukrainian energy system. Two power units of nuclear power plants were undergoing repairs, which also caused a power shortage in the system. In addition, sufficiently high air temperatures cause an increase in consumption due to more intensive use of air conditioning systems.
In parallel, the Government increased the tariff for household consumers from June 1 by 64% to 4.32 UAH/kWh. The new tariff will be valid from June 1, 2024, until the end of April 2025. Previously, the Government planned to introduce a differentiated tariff: 4.8 UAH/kWh, subject to more than 100 kWh monthly consumption. For consumers who use less than 100 kW ⋅ h, the tariff should have remained – 2.64 UAH/kW ⋅ h.
From June, for businesses, the maximum prices for electricity will increase by 20–130% during peak evening hours and at night. This should affect import volumes to reduce the deficit in the energy grid.
Currently, Ukraine has the highest utility prices in Europe, taking into account the share of household expenditures. In war conditions, this is superimposed by rising prices for goods and services and rising inflation. The cumulative effect of negative socio-economic changes is expected to lead to a new increase in migration flows and a reduction in the functioning of private business companies.
On the eve of an increase in electricity prices, a scandal erupted in the information environment over the high salaries of top Ukrenergo officials.
Thus, the publication OBOZ.UA sent a request to Ukrenergo to announce the wages of the head of the board, V. Kudritsky, along with all incentives (bonuses and the like) and separately indicate the salary. They also asked to name the salary of the head of Ukrenergo by month. However, the company refused to disclose this information, citing that the law "On Access to Public Information" does not require that salaries be stated "separately." Instead, the company named the wages of the entire board (the total amount received by the head and four board members was called). Thus, the average monthly salary for one board member reaches more than UAH 2 million. (This is about 50 thousand euros.) At the same time, the size of wages differs significantly depending on the month.
In general, the situation becomes a marker of a corruption component in the energy sector against hostilities and tariff increases, significantly increasing the degree of irritation in society.
Personnel changes continue in the Government of Ukraine. In the coming days, Oleksiy Kuleba is expected to leave the post of deputy OP (this position will most likely be taken by the head of the Transcarpathian Regional Administration, Viktor Mikita) to become the Minister of Regional Policy.
The current head of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, Alexey Chernyshov, will become the Minister of Infrastructure and Deputy Prime Minister. After the Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure A. Kubrakov was dismissed, these positions in the Cabinet of Ministers remained vacant.
According to rumors, Mustafa Nayem will soon leave the Reconstruction Agency post. It will be separated into a separate central government body and report directly to the Prime Minister.
D. Kuleba, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will also resign; in fact, he may be appointed responsible for the difficulties of organizing the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
Personnel changes in the Government are mainly related to establishing new balances of control and ensuring progress in Ukraine's accession to the EU, as well as reducing costs (Government personnel may be reduced by 30%- 50%). Potentially, new personnel rotations in the Government should improve control over the expenditure of funds.
Against this background, there is a struggle for influence on anti-corruption structures. The resignation of the deputy head of NAPC, A. Sytnyk (former head of NABU), continues the scandal associated with the conflict between SAPO and NABU. Recently, NABU fired almost all detectives associated with A. Sytnik and A. Kaluzhinsky (a close associate and godfather of A. Sytnik).
Bills on creating the Military Police based on the Military Law Enforcement Service of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being prepared for consideration in Parliament. It is known that the bills were subject to significant criticism and were sent for revision.
Previously, the Committee on Law Enforcement Activities recommended that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, based on the results of consideration in the first reading, adopt two documents - the draft Law of Ukraine “On the Military Police” (registration No. 6569-d), which defines the legal basis for organizing the activities of the Military Police, its general structure, tasks and powers, and the draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offences, the Criminal Code of Ukraine and the Criminal Procedural Code of Ukraine on the introduction of the activities of the Military Police” (registration no. 6570-d), which creates a procedural basis to ensure the proper implementation of the tasks and functions of the Military Police.
It is known that a new body of military justice will be formed based on the Military Law Enforcement Service in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The military police will be staffed at the expense of the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and cannot exceed 1.5% of the strength of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Military Police will consist of military personnel, civil servants, and workers. OP military personnel perform military service under contract and conscription.
The direct management of the Military Police is carried out by the Chief of the Military Police, who will begin his position and be dismissed from office by the President of Ukraine on the proposal of the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and during the legal regime of martial law - on the proposal of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Internal security subsections and operational units are being created in the Military Police to carry out operational investigative activities and conduct investigative (search) and covert investigative (search) actions in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On Operational Investigative Activities" and the Criminal Procedure Code of Ukraine and exclusively within the limits of the tasks assigned to the Military Police.
The military police will have to fight the sabotage and reconnaissance groups (DRG), protect military facilities, facilitate the evacuation of the population, and restore order in military units.
The military police will be involved, among other things, in searching for and bringing to justice deserters and military personnel who left their units without permission.
Military police can prohibit the movement of military vehicles, search them, check people's documents, and enter homes. When entering a home, the military police must notify the pre-trial investigation authority and the prosecutor's office immediately.
At the front, Russian troops' advance has slowed down somewhat in all directions, likely due to the gradual supply of Western weapons to Ukrainian troops. The main battles are taking place in the area of the cities of Vovchansk (Kharkiv region), Chasiv Yar, and Krasnogorivka (Donetsk region).
In the Kharkiv region, positional battles are taking place with minimal advance of the parties. Thanks to the new reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, part of the territories captured by the Russian Armed Forces in the city of Vovchansk
were recaptured.
Russian troops are trying to advance from the settlement of Ivanovsky towards the village of Stepne, Novoselovka, in the area of Kupyansk.
In the Bakhmut direction, enemy troops of the Russian Federation attempted to storm the eastern outskirts of Chasiv Yar (within the Kanal micro-district). Also, Russian forces had partial success to the southwest of the village of Ivanovsky. Battles are taking place in the area of the villages of Andriivka, Klishchiivka, and Kalynivka.
In Krasnogorovka, fighting continues in the area of the city administration.
The Russian Armed Forces moved towards the settlement, Karlovka, to the west of the village, Netailove, in Pokrovsky's direction.
In the Avdiivsky direction, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to advance in the settlements of Solovyevo, Semenivka, Novoaleksanrivka, and Umanske.
Positional battles have been going on for a long time in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and an intensification of hostilities is observed to the northeast and northwest of the village of Nesteryanki.
Currently, the Russian Federation may be preparing for a new large-scale offensive in Ukraine in several new sectors of the front at once (including in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions). According to the Ukrainian command, the Russian Federation has accumulated 100,000 to 300,000 reserves on the eastern front and opposite the Ukrainian northern borders.
It is most likely that this summer, the Russian Federation will intensify military operations in Ukraine as much as possible to seize even more of its territories to create a negative political background for the electoral processes in the EU and the USA, as well as the holding of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland. So, if Ukraine begins to retreat and leave significant territories under the pressure of the Russian Federation, this will look like a defeat for the entire Western coalition. Thus, the Russian leadership will strive by the end of the year to strengthen its position in negotiations with the new US President's Administration.
For their part, the EU and the United States are trying to thwart this Russian offensive with threats and blackmail: in particular, the allies are saying that they will allow Ukraine to launch strikes on Russian territory (we are talking about 300-500 km in depth), the possible introduction of NATO troops or instructors to Ukraine, the issue of creating a no-fly zone over western Ukraine, etc.
In general, Ukraine is managing to increasingly involve Western allies in the war on its side—this is a strategic success for President V. Zelensky and his team. But this success risks turning into a global catastrophe over time.
From outside the Russian Federation, threats to use nuclear weapons are increasing. In particular, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation D. Medvedev, after permission for Ukraine by some Western countries to use their weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, stated that the "conflict with the West" was developing "according to the worst scenario," and once again began to threaten nuclear war, but this had no political effect. Thus, the line between blackmail and use continues to thin, and, accordingly, the real threat of the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is growing.
The war in Ukraine in the future can progress according to two main scenarios - a gradual freeze along the front line (which will be accompanied by a gradual attenuation of hostilities), or a new round of escalation will occur, which in turn will be accompanied by an increase in military spending, even more casualties and destruction. In particular, one of the signs of the second scenario will be permission for Ukraine to use Western weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, the entry of NATO troops into Ukraine (which is not yet being considered by most countries), etc.
The prospect of any peace agreements still needs to be more explicit, at least until the end of this year, when the election processes in the United States are completed. There are no common points for reaching constructive agreements between the main warring parties (Ukraine and the Russian Federation).
Against this background, preparations for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland (15-16 June 2024) continue. President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that Ukraine plans to propose a deal “similar to the grain deal” at the Peace Summit (it does not imply the direct signing of agreements with the Russian Federation but with the help of intermediary countries). At the same time, three issues from the 10 points of the "peace plan" of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, will be considered by the summit participants - nuclear and food security and prisoner exchange. These measures could support many countries, including the Global South. Preliminarily, consideration of the main points of V. Zelensky's "peace formula": the withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders and the payment of reparations have been postponed. V. Zelensky's team is now (probably in agreement with the United States) beginning to resort to a more flexible strategy in organizing the agenda of the Global Peace Summit.
According to Ukraine, after agreeing on these three more compromise points, the world community will subsequently conduct discussions based on Ukrainian proposals. In the future, other provisions of the "peace formula" that are more difficult to agree on may appear on the agenda: the withdrawal of Russian troops, the restoration of territorial integrity, and a tribunal.
Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership and allies are currently making serious efforts to ensure the participation of as many states as possible in the time remaining before the event.
However, agreeing on even 3 points of V. Zelensky's "peace formula" may encounter certain difficulties, considering that the Global Peace Summit may be held in a reduced format. There will be no foremost leaders of countries with direct or indirect influence on the negotiations: the USA and China. Also, the heads of Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will not be present at the summit (with the wording - to maintain their “neutrality”)
So far, 106 countries and international organizations have confirmed that they will send representatives to Switzerland. However, only in some cases will be heads of state, as was previously planned. Previously, only 40-50 heads of state could attend the summit.
As a result, the status of the event and the potential signing of an agreed-upon document with the participating countries are significantly reduced.
At the same time, China is not only refusing to participate in the Swiss summit but is also planning to hold (tentatively in the fall) a similar peace event (it may be held in Asia). And in this case, both Ukraine and the Russian Federation will be invited to the Chinese summit.
President V. Zelensky, in a rather harsh form, has already accused the PRC of working there to prevent the countries of the Global South from coming to the peace summit in Switzerland, thus playing along with the Russian Federation. However, the PRC said that it did not take sides in the war in Ukraine, but the refusal to invite the Russian Federation to the Swiss meeting undermined its effectiveness as a peace forum. The PRC believes that the summit has shallow value and content and does not want to participate in formal political events; the growing degree of US-Chinese confrontation is also essential here.
A few days before the Global Peace Summit, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky and US President J. Biden will sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy ( scheduled for June 13-15). Fifteen countries have already signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Great Britain, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, and Norway are among them. These documents guarantee long-term support, including military support, intelligence sharing, and economic assistance.
The Western press notes that "the agreement with the United States was formulated over the past weeks, marked by increasing tension in relations between Kyiv and Washington." Allegedly, there are disagreements between Ukraine and the United States on the issue of "how to achieve victory and what can generally be considered a victory or the end of the war." As you know, the White House is not planning a visit by J. Biden to the peace summit in Switzerland. In this case, the signing of a bilateral security agreement will act as a compensatory mechanism for Ukraine. The absence of J. Biden will significantly reduce the status of the summit itself.
Combat map.
Internal situation in the country.
Personnel rotation in the Government.
It is expected that in the coming days, Oleksiy Kuleba will leave the post of deputy OP (this position will most likely be taken by the head of the Transcarpathian Regional Administration, Viktor Mikita) to become the Minister of Regional Policy.
The current head of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine, Alexey Chernyshov, will become the Minister of Infrastructure and Deputy Prime Minister. After the Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure A. Kubrakov was dismissed, these positions in the Cabinet of Ministers remained vacant.
According to rumors, Mustafa Nayem will also soon leave the post of the Reconstruction Agency, which will be separated into a separate body of the Central Government, and it will report directly to the Prime Minister.
D. Kuleba, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will also resign; in fact, he may be appointed responsible for the difficulties of organizing the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
Personnel changes in the Government are mainly related to establishing new balances of control and ensuring progress in Ukraine's accession to the EU, as well as reducing costs (Government personnel may be reduced by 30%- 50%). Potentially, new personnel rotations in the Government should improve control over the expenditure of funds.
Against this background, there is a struggle for influence on anti-corruption structures. The resignation of the deputy head of NAPC, A. Sytnyk (former head of NABU), continues the scandal associated with the conflict between SAPO and NABU. Recently, NABU fired almost all detectives associated with A. Sytnik and A. Kaluzhinsky (a close associate and godfather of A. Sytnik).
Sociology.
According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) (May 16-22, 2024), 19% of Ukrainians believe that the situation with democracy in the country has improved. 29% believe that it has stayed the same. And 43% of Ukrainian citizens noted a deterioration in the level of democracy in the country. Among them, 11% primarily attribute this to the objective circumstances of wartime. 28% - with attempts by the authorities to limit the rights and freedoms of citizens (another 3% named both reasons).
7% - believe that the economic situation has improved over the past five years
• 21% - have not changed.
• 49% - believe that the situation has worsened.
• But 16.5% of them attribute this primarily to a full-scale invasion
• 23% - primarily due to erroneous actions of the authorities (another 9% named both reasons).
A total of 74% believe that Ukraine should have an influential Parliament.
• At the same time, 71% of Ukrainians believe Ukraine should have an influential President.
• 13% were in favor of the Presidential form of Government
• Presidential-parliamentary - 27%
• Parliamentary-presidential - 31%
• Parliamentary - 16%
In general, Ukrainian society has long had a paradoxical attitude towards democracy. On the one hand, democracy was undoubtedly considered a priority type of Government for Ukraine. On the other hand, there was also a strong demand for a "strong hand" that could restore order.
Still, surveys of this kind (especially those conducted by telephone) always raise doubts regarding their reliability due to the most profound information and power pressure on public consciousness from government bodies in war conditions.
Has President V. Zelensky fulfilled his election promises?
18% - believe that V. Zelensky has fulfilled most or all of his promises (5% of them say that all promises will be fulfilled)
• 19% believe that he has fulfilled about half of his promises.
• 50% believe that he has fulfilled few or none of his promises (of which 25% believe that he has not fulfilled any promises).
Among those who believe that V. Zelensky has not fulfilled all his promises:
• 50% - explain the failure to fulfill promises by the presence of dishonest, corrupt people in the president's team.
• (26-32%) - lack of competent people in his team, full-scale invasion, inexperience, influence of oligarchs.
• (9-14%) talked about personal corruption, the influence of other countries, destabilization of the situation by the opposition, and impossible promises.
Apparently, a significant part of Ukrainians, by and large, see the reason for the failure to fulfill election promises in the President's entourage and not in him, considering that the President himself continues to enjoy high levels of trust in society (64%).
The situation around Ukraine.
Preparations for the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
President of Ukraine V. Zelensky said that Ukraine plans to propose a deal "similar to the grain deal" at the Peace Summit (it does not imply the direct signing of agreements with the Russian Federation but with the help of intermediary countries). At the same time, three issues from the 10 points of the "peace plan" of the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, will be considered by the summit participants - nuclear and food security and prisoner exchange. These measures could support many countries, including the Global South. Preliminarily, consideration of the main points of V. Zelensky's "peace formula": the withdrawal of Russian troops to the 1991 borders and the payment of reparations have been postponed. V. Zelensky's team is now (probably in agreement with the United States) beginning to resort to a more flexible strategy in organizing the agenda of the Global Peace Summit.
According to Ukraine, after agreeing on these three more compromise points, the world community will subsequently conduct discussions based on Ukrainian proposals. In the future, other provisions of the "peace formula" that are more difficult to agree on may appear on the agenda: the withdrawal of Russian troops, the restoration of territorial integrity, and a tribunal.
Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership and allies are currently making serious efforts to ensure the participation of as many states as possible in the time remaining before the event.
However, agreeing on even 3 points of V. Zelensky's "peace formula" may encounter specific difficulties, considering that the Global Peace Summit may be in a reduced format. There will be no foremost leaders of countries with direct or indirect influence on the negotiations: the United States and China. Also, the heads of Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan will not be present at the summit (with the wording - to maintain their "neutrality")
So far, 106 countries and international organizations have confirmed that they will send representatives to Switzerland. However, only in some cases will be heads of state, as was previously planned. Previously, only 40-50 heads of state could attend the summit.
As a result, the status of the event and the potential signing of an agreed-upon document with the participating countries are significantly reduced.
At the same time, China is not only refusing to participate in the Swiss summit but is also planning to hold (tentatively in the fall) a similar peace event (it may be held in Asia). And in this case, both Ukraine and the Russian Federation will be invited to the Chinese summit.
President V. Zelensky, in a rather harsh form, has already accused the PRC of working to prevent the countries of the Global South from coming to the peace summit in Switzerland, thus playing along with the Russian Federation. The PRC said that it did not take sides in the war in Ukraine, but the refusal to invite the Russian Federation to the Swiss meeting undermined its effectiveness as a peace forum.
The reasons why the PRC refused to come to the Peace Summit are not entirely linked directly to Ukraine.
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China considers this summit an initiative of Western countries led by the United States. China will not play along with any American strategies (considering the worsening US-Chinese relations) just like that without receiving some concessions in return.
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China thus really decided to support the political position of the Russian Federation. During Russian President V. Putin's visit to China, one of his main requests to the Chinese leader was to refrain from taking part in the summit in Switzerland.
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The PRC's direct attitude towards Ukraine remains skeptical; critical issues in Ukrainian-Chinese relations must be resolved.
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The PRC believes the summit has shallow value and content and wants to refrain from participating in formal political events.
A few days before the Global Peace Summit, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky and US President J. Biden will sign a bilateral security agreement on the sidelines of the G7 meeting in Italy (June 13-15). Fifteen countries have already signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine. Great Britain, Germany, France, Denmark, Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Latvia, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, Sweden, Iceland, and Norway are among them. These documents guarantee long-term support, including military support, intelligence sharing, and economic assistance.
The Western press notes that "the agreement with the United States was formulated over the past weeks, marked by increasing tension in relations between Kyiv and Washington." Allegedly, there are disagreements between Ukraine and the United States on the issue of "how to achieve victory and what can generally be considered a victory or the end of the war." As you know, the White House is not planning a visit by J. Biden to the peace summit in Switzerland. The signing of a bilateral security agreement will act as a compensatory mechanism for Ukraine. The absence of J. Biden will significantly reduce the status of the summit itself.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
