Авторы публикации
Against the backdrop of military failures, the Russian Federation announces partial mobilization and intensifies the issue of holding the so-called. "referendum" on the entry into the Russian Federation of the occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
Partial mobilization in the Russian Federation (and the adoption of new mobilization legislation), as well as a sharp acceleration in the pace of the so-called. "referendums" in the occupied territories are markers of an attempt to transform the Russian strategy in the Russian-Ukrainian war, and, probably, its transition to a new phase. The Russian Federation is also changing the goals of the war. Now, this is not forcing Ukraine to capitulate, but an attempt to absorb the captured parts of Ukraine and include them in the New Russian Empire.
The new phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war will also be characterized by the involvement of even more forces and means, the number and composition of the warring parties, the further scaling of the crisis, and the growing risks of using nuclear weapons. The Russian Federation, through the mechanisms of "nuclear blackmail", is trying to increase pressure on Ukraine's Western allies.
Mobilization will increase the level of internal tension in the Russian Federation and increase anti-war displeasure. The war will penetrate deeper into the fabric of Russian society, upset its infantile balance with the authorities. Protests are already beginning in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Obviously, the Russian Federation will face significant difficulties in conducting mobilization, but in general, most likely, it will be implemented.
Mobilization in the Russian Federation for Ukraine carries risks of both a military nature and a socio-economic one. A new round of mobilization will increase government spending and have a negative impact on the national economy.
For Ukraine, this also further devalues the Russian Federation as a participant in negotiations, extremely narrowing the field of topics available for dialogue. There will be no political negotiations in the coming months, despite the fact that part of the Western elites, after the failures of the Russian army in the Kharkov region, want to persuade Russian President V. Putin to negotiate and make concessions. In particular, Mexico initiated a new peace plan, but it was immediately rejected by the parties.
At the front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold the military initiative after a successful counter-offensive near Kharkov. In particular, Ukrainian troops crossed the river. Oskol and now the Russian Federation are forced to build a second line of defense east of the river. Oskol near the town of Svatovo, Luhansk region. One of the few main supply routes from the Belgorod region passes through this city. The Krajina troops advanced from the settlement. Grigorovka and went to the village. Belogorivka is the first settlement in the Luhansk region liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to surround the city of Liman, which opens the way for Ukrainian troops to the Luhansk region along the left bank of the Siversky Donets river, in the direction of the city of Kreminna.
The Russian Federation continues to strike at Ukraine's critical infrastructure, thereby putting pressure on the leadership of Ukraine and its allies. the threat of destruction of the Ukrainian energy system on the eve of winter and a humanitarian crisis.
Based on the statements of the head of Belarus A. Lukashenko, significant risks remain of direct participation in the military conflict in Ukraine of Belarus.
After the city of Izyum (Kharkiv region), as well as other cities of the Kharkiv region, was liberated from Russian troops, Ukraine accused the Russian Federation of war crimes. The mass graves that were discovered in the liberated city of Izyum are expected to produce an information resonance similar to the one that was after the publication of the events in the city of Bucha (Kyiv region). In Ukraine, they hope to strengthen the assistance of Western countries, in particular, financial and military. In connection with this event, Western countries (in particular, the United States) show support for Ukraine's efforts to document the war crimes of Russian troops. Much will depend on the conclusion of the UN mission, which will arrive in the city of Izyum.
Ukraine has returned 215 servicemen from Russian captivity, 108 of them are Azov fighters. Obviously, agreements on the exchange of captured persons include additional political or economic aspects. That is why Turkey and Saudi Arabia acted as intermediaries for the exchange, which today are in difficult relations with the Western world and which do not unambiguously take the side of Ukraine in the war. Note the date of the exchange. It is likely that by conducting such an exchange on the day of the announcement of partial mobilization, V. Putin tried not only to avoid additional criticism from the ultra-patriotic part of Russian society, which demanded the most severe punishment for both foreigners and Azov defenders, but also to demonstrate that that, despite the tightening of politics (the continuation of the war, mobilization, the so-called "referendums" announced), it is possible to negotiate with the Russian Federation and it remains open for negotiations.
The Verkhovna Rada listened to the presentation of the state budget for 2023. The priority of financing remains the security and defense sector, for which more than 1 trillion UAH is allocated. In general, the draft budget for the next year demonstrates that financially Ukraine will be heavily dependent on external donors. 94% - borrowings are planned to be taken from external resources.
Ukraine may introduce punishment for obtaining Russian citizenship. It is likely that in this way, through the tightening of legislation, the Ukrainian authorities are struggling with the consequences of Russian passportization in the occupied territories.
The successful counter-offensive of the Ukrainian troops has played an important role in the fact that the United States and allies continue to increase military assistance to Ukraine. Obviously, for Ukraine, Western assistance is a decisive factor for a further counteroffensive. The United States is also trying to put pressure on China in order to prevent it from helping to circumvent Russian sanctions. And Ukraine continues to promote the creation of a mechanism for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets - about $ 330 billion.
The "grain deal" expires in November of this year. In order to continue the food agreement after the deadline, the UN is trying to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia on the resumption of the export of Russian fertilizers through the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. But Ukraine and the Russian Federation, given all the factors and the difference in positions, it will be difficult to agree on this issue. In the current format, the deal is not beneficial to the Russian Federation, in particular, they demand a revision of sanctions. If the deal is not extended, given the low capacity of Ukrainian ports, Ukraine will be able to export only 10-12 million tons of agricultural products out of the required 20 million tons, excluding the new crop.
Military situation
Combat actions.
The situation in the Kharkiv region. The Armed Forces of Ukraine moved to the left bank of the Oskol River and now control the entire territory of the city of Kupyansk. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are actively advancing in the area of the settlement Borova and to the south in the area of the village of Rubtsov (this is already the Donetsk region).
In Donbass: Armed Forces of Ukraine have advanced from the settlement Grigorovka and went to the village. Belogorivka is the first settlement in the Luhansk region liberated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There were battles around the city of Liman, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to encircle. The Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated the city of Svyatogirsk and repelled attacks in the areas of the settlements of Vesela Dolina, Bakhmut, Zaitseve, Maryinka and Novomykhailivka. It is reported about the assault on the city of Avdiivka.
Situation in the South: the process of consolidating the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the achieved levels is underway. In the Kherson region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fought off attacks in the area of the settlement Bezimenne (near Davydov Brod) and settlement Novogrigorievka (Vitovsky district of the Mykolaiv region). Russian troops attacked in the area of the settlement Pravdino south of the settlement Posad-Pokrovsky. The Russian Federation introduces a regime of enhanced security in the river South Boog direction. Local residents of some settlements of the Kherson region are prohibited from approaching the crossings.
Black Sea-Azov direction: no significant changes. The Russian Federation has withdrawn its submarines from Crimea due to the risk of Ukrainian attacks.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that the Russian Federation is withdrawing units of the 217th Airborne Regiment from the territory of Syria for transfer to Ukraine.
Ukraine released 215 servicemen from the captivity of the Russian Federation, 108 of them are Azov fighters. Head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak said that in exchange for 200 servicemen, Ukraine gave away Viktor Medvedchuk, suspected of treason, " who has already given all possible evidence to the investigation." Five commanders of Azovstal were exchanged for 55 Russian prisoners "having no interest" for Ukraine. It is reported that 5 released commanders of the Azov regiment will be in Turkey for the time being. Later, the Coordinating Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War published a list of all 215 released from the captivity of the Russian Federation, 10 of them were foreign citizens. Recall that earlier the Kremlin opposed the exchange of V. Medvedchuk for the defenders of Azovstal.
Obviously, the arrangements for the exchange of captured persons include additionally certain political or economic aspects. That is why the exchange was mediated by Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which today are in difficult relations with the Western world and which clearly do not take the side of Ukraine in this conflict. The details of these agreements are not known and it is unlikely that they will be known publicly. Note the date of the exchange. It is likely that by conducting such an exchange on the day of the announcement of partial mobilization, V. Putin tried not only to avoid additional criticism from the ultra-patriotic part of Russian society, which demanded the most severe punishment for both foreigners and Azov defenders. Perhaps, in this way, the Russian leadership tried to demonstrate that, despite their tightening of policy towards Ukraine (continuation of the war, mobilization, announced so-called “referendums”), it is possible to negotiate with the Russian Federation and it remains open to start negotiations.
Combat map.
Mobilization and “referendums” are the new Russian strategy in the war against Ukraine.
Against the backdrop of military failures, the Russian Federation announces partial mobilization and intensifies the issue of holding the so-called. "referendum" on the entry into the Russian Federation of the occupied territories of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.
This week the situation around the so-called. "referendum". In fact, immediately after the statements by the Russian leadership about the need to hold this "referendum", representatives of the occupying "authorities" in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions decided to urgently hold the so-called. "referendum" on September 23-27. This "initiative" was immediately supported by the Russian Federation. In particular, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, stated that: " After holding referendums and accepting new territories as part of Russia, the geopolitical transformation in the world will become irreversible." The annexation of the occupied territories will completely " untie the hands " of Russia, giving it the opportunity to " use all the forces of self-defense."
In his speech, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, in an address to the Russians, announced the partial mobilization of the country's citizens from September 21. Only citizens who are in reserve are subject to conscription, they will undergo additional training, taking into account the war in Ukraine. It must be understood that partial mobilization is more of a thesis for the Russian domestic audience, an attempt to reduce the level of fear and anxiety that will certainly arise in connection with the mobilization now. Since any mobilization is in fact partial, it has never reached 100%.
V. Putin also said that the Russian Federation would support the so-called. "referenda" in the "DPR", "LPR", Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. If the territorial integrity of Russia is threatened, all methods will be used, including nuclear weapons.
Earlier, the State Duma of the Russian Federation approved an amendment introducing the concept of “mobilization”, “martial law” and “wartime” into the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, as well as punishment for voluntary surrender. Immediately in the second and third readings, a bill was adopted, which proposes to consider periods of mobilization, martial law and wartime as aggravating circumstances in the commission of a crime. So for the surrender of prisoners threatens from three to 10 years in prison. For looting up to 15 years. Unauthorized abandonment of a unit during the period of mobilization and martial law will be punished from 5 to 10 years. Non-fulfillment by subordinates of the order of the chief, as well as refusal to participate in military or hostilities, is proposed to be punished with imprisonment for a term of two to three years. A group of articles on non-execution of the state defense order and violation of the terms of the state contract is also introduced.
In general, the Russian Federation makes it clear that it does not consider Ukraine as an object of negotiations. If earlier the Russian leadership sought to force V. Zelensky to agree to his own terms, now they believe that there is no one to negotiate with and the conflict has entered a phase of destruction. What does the statement of the head of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky say. “After the annexation of Donbass to the Russian Federation, there can be no talk of negotiations with Ukraine.”
In Ukraine, the press secretary of President V. Zelensky, Sergei Nikiforov, said that the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation does not change anything for Ukraine in the war. In addition, mobilization in the Russian Federation indicates that the Russian army cannot cope with the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thus, the war in Ukraine is entering the second phase of the officially recognized total confrontation with the risks of a global clash, scaling and expansion of the conflict. Partial mobilization in the Russian Federation, as well as a sharp acceleration in the pace of the so-called. "referenda" in the occupied territories are markers of the transformation of Russian strategy in the Russian-Ukrainian war.
This transformation attempt was forced for the leadership of the Russian Federation and is a consequence of the defeat in the Kharkiv region and the general loss of military initiative, the ever-increasing military and financial assistance to Ukraine from the United States and allies, which provokes the processes of demoralization and destruction in general in the Russian state.
Decisions were made under pressure from the patriotic-passionate part of Russian society. The Russian Federation is also changing the goals of the war. Now it is not forcing Ukraine to capitulate (although it would not be abandoned either), but the liquidation of Ukraine and its absorption in parts into the New Russian Empire.
The new phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be characterized by the involvement of even more forces and means, the number and composition of the warring parties, the further scaling of the crisis, and the growing risks of using nuclear weapons. Today, more than 70 countries are involved in the war in Ukraine in one way or another.
The threat of using tactical nuclear weapons has seriously increased. The Russian Federation today is considering the possibility and expediency of using tactical nuclear weapons in the south and east of Ukraine, at least to protect the new annexed territories. The Russian Federation, through the mechanisms of "nuclear blackmail", is trying, first of all, to put pressure on Ukraine's Western allies in order to reduce their level of support for Ukraine.
Mobilization will increase the level of internal tension in the Russian Federation and increase anti-war displeasure. The war will penetrate deeper into the fabric of Russian society, upset its infantile balance with the authorities - more involvement and demands. Protests are already starting in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The Russian Federation will face significant difficulties in conducting mobilization, but in general, most likely, it will be implemented.
The mobilized units will potentially go to the front, 1-4 months after the start of mobilization. If the Russian Federation manages to mobilize the declared 300 thousand people, this may be enough to stabilize the front line in the south and east of Ukraine, as well as to create a new strike force that can be used for a new offensive against the city of Kyiv or for an attack on the city of Nikolaev and the city of Odessa.
By announcing mobilization, the Russian leadership apparently hopes to turn the tide in the Ukrainian-Russian war to their advantage already throughout the winter-spring of 2022-2023.
RF relies on several factors at once:
- Energy crisis in Europe.
- High prices, peak inflation in winter in Europe and North America.
- Growing political instability in the EU and the US.
At the same time, during the winter, the Russian Federation hopes to launch a new offensive.
For Ukraine, mobilization in the Russian Federation carries both military and socio-economic risks.
Since Russian mobilization in Ukraine will have to respond with its own mobilization and follow the path of expanding the number of Ukrainian armed forces.
A new round of mobilization will increase government spending and have a negative impact on the national economy.
Statements by the head of Belarus A. Lukashenko.
At the same time, the risks of participation in the war on the side of the Russian Federation of Belarus remain. So the head of Belarus A. Lukashenko made several statements about the military-political situation in the world in general and around Belarus and Ukraine in particular.
According to him, power structures are being formed abroad, " first of all in Ukraine ", " to overthrow the authorities in Belarus ".
A. Lukashenko also stated that "the United States is pushing Europe into a military confrontation with Russia on the territory of Ukraine, the purpose of which is to weaken the Russian Federation and destroy Belarus ." In addition, A. Lukashenko noted that his country " will protect the original national borders ." Such statements may indicate the possible further participation of Belarus in the military conflict on the side of the Russian Federation, in particular, in Ukraine. At the same time, the factors that may later serve as a “trigger” or a formal reason (if such a decision has already been made under pressure from the Russian Federation) for the country to enter into a military confrontation remain unclear.
Mass graves in Izyum.
After the city of Izyum, as well as other cities of the Kharkiv region, was liberated from Russian troops, Ukraine accused the Russian Federation of war crimes .
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that mass graves of people were discovered in the liberated city of Izyum. According to him, the dead are in the graves, there are children and the military. Including, and with traces of torture - more than 440 bodies. The President said: " Russia repeated in Izyum the same thing that it did in Bucha ."
The head of the Kharkiv OVA, O. Sinegubov, said that among the bodies that were exhumed at the mass grave site in Izyum, 99% had signs of violent death. It is reported that the exhumation of the bodies of the murdered people will continue for almost another two weeks. About 200 law enforcement officers and experts are currently on the scene. The bodies will be sent for a forensic examination to determine the exact cause of death. Adviser to the Minister of Defense A. Kopytko said that the destruction inflicted by Russian troops in the city of Izyum is comparable in scale with the destruction in several cities of Borodyanka, and in terms of the number of victims - with at least two cities of Buchi in the Kyiv region.
The event produced a great response in Western countries, in particular, a lot was written about it in the media. Maxar Technologies has published satellite images of the mass grave site near Izyum on Twitter. In the photo you can see how the cemetery has changed from March to August. It can be seen that during this period more excavated land appeared there.
In connection with this event, Western countries (in particular, the United States) show support for Ukraine's efforts to document the war crimes of Russian troops. In particular, a lot will depend on the conclusion of the UN mission, where they announced that they were going to send a mission to the city of Izyum to investigate the situation with mass graves. It is likely that Ukraine hopes to strengthen the assistance of Western countries, in particular, financial and military.
Reports of a mass grave in Izyum impressed the Joe Biden administration. Thus, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby, at a press briefing at the White House, stated that: “ The discovery, according to Ukrainian officials, of at least 440 graves at this site is in line with… Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. The U.S. will continue to actively support efforts to document war crimes and atrocities committed by Russian forces in Ukraine, as well as assist national and international efforts to identify and hold Russians accountable .” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that after the discovery of mass graves in Izyum, it is necessary to strengthen support for Ukraine.
The mass graves in Izyum, in their scale, will produce an informational resonance similar to that which was after the publication of the events in the city of Bucha, Kyiv region. In any case, in terms of information, mass graves in the city of Izyum will deal another strong reputational blow to the Russian Federation.
The situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP
The situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains difficult, the plant itself and the surrounding areas continue to be shelled, and the South Ukrainian NPP is already being shelled in parallel. There is not enough transport for the possible evacuation of people from the 30-kilometer zone around the South Ukrainian NPP. This was announced by the head of the Nikolaev OVA Vitaly Kim. According to him, the shortage of transport arose due to the fact that a lot of equipment was mobilized for the military.
There are rumors that the Russian army is preparing strikes against the energy infrastructure if Ukraine tries to disrupt the so-called. "referenda" in the uncontrolled territories. A situation is not ruled out, in which the Russian Federation can link the security issue of the Zaporizhzha NPP and the South Ukrainian NPP. In general, the Russian Federation in recent weeks has been demonstrating its readiness to destroy critical infrastructure in Ukraine, in particular, to strike at the auxiliary infrastructure of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which could cause a significant energy crisis already in winter. Attacks from the Russian Federation have already been inflicted on the Krivorozhskaya TPP and Slavyanskaya TPP. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in the settlement of Pechenegah, Kharkov region, the Russians tried to destroy the dam of the Pechenegsky reservoir.
Internal situation in Ukraine
The Verkhovna Rada listened to the presentation of the state budget for the next year.
On September 21, the presentation of the draft state budget of Ukraine for 2023 was held in the Parliament. According to the procedure, the Parliament took the document into account. Also today, at a meeting of the Parliament, the deputies made changes to the state budget for this year, there was a need to allocate UAH 2 billion to the reserve fund. Now the deputies must submit their proposals and amendments, and in the first week of October, a vote in the first reading should take place.
According to Y. Zheleznyak, People's Deputy from the Holos party, this was the first stage of the presentation of the draft budget, which takes place without a vote. He said that the adoption of the state budget of Ukraine for 2023 will take place according to an abbreviated procedure.
The Cabinet of Ministers submitted a draft state budget for 2023 to the Rada on September 14. The priority of financing remains the security and defense sector, for which more than 1 trillion UAH is allocated.
Distribution of budget funds for 2023:
Security and defense - UAH 1,141 billion.
Pension provision and social protection - UAH 835 billion.
Support for war veterans - UAH 6.8 billion.
Education - UAH 155 billion.
Medicine - UAH 175.7 billion
Funds for territories affected by armed aggression - UAH 23.9 billion
Funds to eliminate their consequences - UAH 19.4 billion.
Expenses for the maintenance of government bodies (security and defense sectors) have been reduced by UAH 11.6 billion.
Budget revenues - 1.28 trillion.
Expenses - UAH 2.57 trillion
Monthly budget deficit - $3 billion or UAH 1.29 trillion per year
Course - 42 UAH per dollar
From the speech of the Prime Minister of Ukraine D. Shmyhal, the economy is predicted to grow by +4.6% in real terms and +37% in nominal
Average salary - 18 500 UAH
State budget deficit in 2023:
20% of GDP (general fund 17.3% and Special Fund - 2.7%)
State borrowing - UAH 1.516 trillion:
– external - UAH 1.426 trillion
– internal - UAH 90.7 billion
94% - borrowings are planned to be taken from external resources
The repayment of the public debt in 2023 is planned in the amount of UAH 414.9 billion.
98.9 billion repayment of external debt and 316 billion hryvnia. domestic debt)
Public debt servicing: UAH 326 billion
– external debt UAH 62.3 billion
– domestic debt UAH 263.9 billion
The volume of the State debt will amount to UAH 6406 billion (of which 78.7% is external debt).
The volume of public debt in GDP 100.1%
Budget receipts.
From the NBU (not to be confused with the purchase of bonds) the Budget in 2023 should receive at least UAH 19.3 billion
Privatization plans to raise UAH 6 billion
Also:
Personal income tax UAH 129 billion
Corporate income tax UAH 132 billion
Rent payment of UAH 120.6 billion
Rent for forest resources UAH 462 million
Rent for water use UAH 856.4 mln.
Rent for extraction and use of subsoil 116.8 billion
Rent on radio frequency UAH 2.1 billion
Rent for transportation UAH 320.9 million
Excise tax of UAH 137.3 billion
VAT UAH 596.3 billion
Import duty UAH 35.2 billion
PPP and dividends UAH 7.3 billion
Gambling UAH 1.59 billion
Income from loans UAH 1.9 billion
Receipts from budgetary institutions 45.5 billion.
Projected GDP for 2023 is laid down as - UAH 6,399 billion
GDP growth by +4.6% compared to 2022 (where the projected fall is -33.2%)
Inflation +30%
The minimum wage and the cost of living does not change: 6700 and 2589 UAH
Financing the activities of political parties in the following year amounted to 366 million hryvnia.
The CEC has not indicated money for holding the next elections of people's deputies of the Verkhovna Rada in 2023. But in the very text of the law of the 2023 Budget, there is an instruction to the Cabinet of Ministers, together with the CEC, after the end of martial law, to submit amendments to the Budget for consideration by the Parliament, providing funds for the preparation and holding of such elections.
In general, the draft budget for the next year demonstrates that financially Ukraine will be heavily dependent on external donors. 94% - borrowings are planned to be taken from external resources.
Ukraine is preparing to introduce punishment for obtaining Russian citizenship.
At a government meeting, they agreed on a bill on criminal liability for forced Russian passportization. The bill is being prepared for submission to the Rada. Previously, the position of the Ukrainian authorities was that the mere presence of Russian citizenship is not a criminal offense. Now they are proposing changes where, even in the absence of signs of collaborationism, the Russian passport itself will be the basis for criminal prosecution.
As Deputy Prime Minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories Iryna Vereshchuk said, the bill proposes to introduce the following criminal liability:
- from 10 to 15 years - for obtaining a Russian passport for civil servants,
- from 8 to 12 years - for forcing citizens of Ukraine to obtain a Russian passport,
- from 8 to 12 years - for creating conditions in which the failure to obtain a Russian passport will lower the rights of a Ukrainian citizen or otherwise put him in a disadvantageous position,
- from 5 to 8 years - for promoting Russian citizenship.
Obtaining a Russian passport, according to the bill, is justified only if it is needed to return through the Russian Federation and third countries to return to Ukraine.
Earlier, I. Vereshchuk clarified that a Ukrainian official holding a Russian passport can be not only an aggravating circumstance in case of complicity, but also an independent reason for criminal prosecution, which will be spelled out in the draft law of the Ministry of Reintegration.
It is likely that in this way, through the tightening of legislation, the Ukrainian authorities are struggling with the consequences of passportization in the occupied territories. By distributing passports, Russia is helping to create administrative and electoral structures in the occupied areas. She hopes that a framework of governance will be formed from the people who have received Russian passports.
Public opinion.
According to the study) KIIS (September 7-13, 2022). The majority of Ukrainian citizens positively assess the unity of the country's leadership.
• 87% of citizens believe that the Ukrainian authorities will not make unacceptable compromises with the Russian Federation.
Only 5% think otherwise.
• 71% - believe that the military and political leadership are working together to win.
• 14% speak of conflicts between the political and military leadership.
• 60% - believe that the management pays due attention to defenders”
• 24% - the opposite opinion.
• 51% believe that weapons are not stolen, but are used by our defenders.
• 29% - believe that officials are stealing Western weapons
• 63% - believe that the military-political leadership demonstrates unity and is devoted to winning the war.
• 16% see "splits"
• 73% - believe that the West continues to support Ukraine.
• 72% consider the residents of those occupied after February 24 to be victims of circumstances.
Thus, the majority of Ukrainian citizens do not share the so-called "split" narratives, but a fairly significant proportion of Ukrainians believe and agree with them (14-29%) or do not have a clear opinion (15-20%). The more common narrative is that officials profit from the war and steal Western weapons, almost a third - 29%. In general, the attitude towards those citizens who continue to live in the territories occupied after February 24 is acceptable. The vast majority (72%) consider them victims of circumstances and believe that they want the return of Ukrainian control over the occupied territories.
The situation around Ukraine
Initiatives to resume peace talks.
It is possible that after the failures of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region, part of the Western elites wants to persuade Russian President V. Putin to negotiate and make concessions. In particular, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador came up with the idea of declaring a " global truce " with an immediate cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and declaring this next week to the UN General Assembly in New York. For this, direct negotiations between V. Putin and V. Zelensky should begin . The mediators, according to his idea, should be Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Pope Francis and UN Secretary General António Guterres. A truce, as Obrador says, should be declared not only between Kyiv and Moscow, but in general between all the peoples of the world for at least five years.
At the same time, UN Secretary General António Guterres believes that Ukraine and Russia are currently far from the possibility of holding direct negotiations between V. Zelensky and V. Putin. In his opinion, the possibility of negotiations depends on the desire of the parties. A. Guterres also said that he is ready to provide " good offices " to facilitate the negotiations.
In Ukraine, the peace plan from Mexico was rejected immediately. Advisor to the head of the President's Office, Mykhailo Podolyak, said that Obrador's proposal does not meet Ukrainian interests. For its part, the Kremlin described the concept of security guarantees presented by Ukraine as a danger to Russia.
After the announcement of partial mobilization in the Russian Federation and the so-called. "referenda" in the occupied territories. For Ukraine, such a step further devalues the Russian Federation as a participant in negotiations, extremely narrows the field of topics available for dialogue. Thus, there will be no political negotiations in the coming months.
The leading world powers have no options for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. This opinion was expressed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “Unfortunately, there is no situation when among these visible powers in the world they ask the question: “ What can we do, how can we solve this issue?” We gave the necessary response to the West, and to all of them, especially the United States, with the initiatives that we took, with the policy of balance that we adhered to from the very beginning ," he said. According to the Turkish President, the position of Russia and, secondly, the return of the occupied territories to Ukraine are of particular importance in the issue of ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase, with Russia failing on the battlefield, and Western countries are likely to fear how it will react .
“ The war is not going too well for Russia right now. Therefore, we all have an obligation to maintain a high degree of readiness ,” General Mark Milley, head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressed this opinion. He visited a base in Poland that is assisting Ukraine's military effort and urged US troops to be extra vigilant. According to the expectations of NATO experts, Russia will intensify hostilities, especially with the use of conventional weapons, destroying infrastructure in all directions. It is also reported that the United States is already discussing with other Western countries a response plan for Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Deliveries of weapons to Ukraine.
The United States and allies continue to increase military assistance to Ukraine, in which the successful counter-offensive of Ukrainian troops played an important role. The Pentagon has published a list of weapons and equipment transferred to Ukraine as of February 24, 2022 to September 15. The volume of military aid amounted to $15.1 billion. It is reported that the White House will increase military assistance to Ukraine after the so-called. "referenda" in Zaporozhye, Kherson, Lugansk and Donetsk regions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Ukrainian counter-offensive was the reason why the allies decided to continue supplying weapons. “ I believe that this counter-offensive is a very important step that has influenced or will affect the decisions of some other countries. We would also like more help from Turkey, we would like more help from South Korea. More help from the Arab world. From Asia ,” Zelensky said.
Overall, the United States is the isolated leader in aid, as can be seen from the published list of delivered weapons. The timing and volume of the supply of American weapons is clearly different from the supply from Europe, in particular, Germany. Obviously, for Ukraine, Western assistance is a decisive factor for a further counteroffensive.
In parallel, the United States is trying to put pressure on China in order to prevent it from helping to circumvent Russian sanctions. US President Joe Biden told Chinese leader Xi Jinping about the risk of stopping "American and other" investment in China if Beijing violates sanctions against Russia. “ I called President Xi and said: “If you think that the Americans and others will continue to invest in the Chinese economy while violating sanctions against Russia, then you are making a huge mistake ,” Biden said.
Ukraine , for its part, is promoting the idea of creating an international compensation mechanism, on the basis of which the Ukrainian authorities could receive Russian assets frozen by Western countries - about $ 330 billion as compensation. This is reported by The Guardian newspaper, now representatives of the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine discussed this issue in London with the British Foreign Office.
The situation regarding grain exports.
According to the Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine, since the launch of the first vessel with Ukrainian food, 4.1 million tons of agricultural products have been exported.
In total, 177 ships with agricultural products for the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa left the Ukrainian ports. At the same time, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine reported that they would send about 50,000 tons of grain to African countries (Ethiopia and Somalia). Thus, the government of Ukraine is trying to fend off accusations from the Russian Federation that Ukraine does not send agricultural exports to African countries that need it.
The "grain deal" expires in November. In the current format, it is not beneficial to the Russian Federation, in particular, they require a revision of sanctions. If the deal is not extended, given the low capacity of Ukrainian ports, Ukraine will be able to export only 10-12 million tons of agricultural products out of the required 20 million tons, excluding the new crop.
In order to continue the food agreement after the deadline, the UN is trying to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia on the resumption of the export of Russian fertilizers through the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. In turn, this should contribute to the prolongation of the "grain deal" for the export of food from Ukrainian ports. But Ukraine and the Russian Federation, taking into account all the factors and the difference in positions, it will be difficult to agree on this issue, without a certain pressure on them from Western countries .
In particular, the Russian leadership considered inappropriate the proposal of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war in exchange for the launch of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. “ Are people and ammonia the same thing?!” - said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of V. Putin, answering the question whether the Kremlin is ready to consider such an option. Earlier, President Zelensky said that he was against the transit of ammonia from the Russian Federation through Ukraine and was ready to support it only in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war. According to the President of Ukraine, he proposed this option to the UN.
Tensions around Taiwan are rising.
Tensions are growing between the US and China over Taiwan, in particular, due to the military exercises of the Chinese army around the island and the position of the US, which now supports Taipei with weapons. According to the CIA, China plans to annex Taiwan by 2027. At the same time, it is reported that the leader of the PRC does not want to annex Taiwan by military means, but sees the need to create prerequisites for such a scenario.
US President Joe Biden said the United States military will defend Taiwan if China invades. So, in response to the question whether the US forces will defend Taiwan, which is claimed by China, D. Biden replied: " Yes, if there really was an unprecedented attack ." Asked to explain if he meant that, unlike Ukraine, US forces - American men and women - would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, Biden replied, " Yes ."
In the Chinese Foreign Ministry, regarding D. Biden's statement that the United States will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion: " we reserve the right to take all necessary measures."
True, after that the White House stated that D. Biden's statement about the defense of Taiwan by American troops is not the official position of the United States. And the policy of the state in relation to the island has not changed. There, adhering to the "one China" policy, the United States does not recognize the independence of Taiwan.
Despite the “slap in the face” that Xi Jinping received during the visit of Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, his position remains quite strong both inside the country (most likely he will be elected leader of the PRC for a third term) and throughout the East Asian region, as evidenced by the results of the SCO summit. Xi Jinping has clearly benefited from the SCO summit ahead of the all-important 20th National Congress of the CPC on October 16, which will likely see him elected as PRC leader for a third term. In Samarkand, Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Turkey's desire to become a full member of the SCO.
It is likely that China will take a more sustained position regarding Taiwan, but they make it clear that they are determined to annex the island to China. It is also expected that Chinese military exercises around Taiwan will continue.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrii Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
.
