RESULTS OF 2022 FOR UKRAINE: WAR, POLITICS, PUBLIC OPINION, ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL SITUATION ; SOCIAL TRANSFORMATIONS

RESULTS OF 2022 FOR UKRAINE:

WAR, POLITICS, PUBLIC OPINION, ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL SITUATION ;

SOCIAL TRANSFORMATIONS

1. The course of the war.

1. The first phase of the war. Russian invasion (February 24 - April 2022).

2 . Second phase of the war. Withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv. Offensive in Donbas (April - early September 2022).

3 . Third phase of the war. The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the liberation of the Kharkiv region and Kherson (September - November 2022).

4 . Fourth phase of the war. Stabilization of the front-line struggle for military initiative (mid-November 2022 to date).

2. Negotiation process.

1. Minsk -Istanbul format (February 24 - April 2022).

2 . Stopping the negotiation process and the annexation of territories occupied by the Russian Federation

(April - end of September 2022).

3 . Negotiating ultimatums (October 2022 to date).

3. The internal situation in Ukraine.

Domestic policy.

1. Maximum consolidation of the company (February 24 - June 2022).

2. Personnel reformatting (June - October 2022).

3. Strengthening the presidential vertical of power (October 2022 to the present).

Sociology.

Economic situation.

1. Initial shock (February 24 - April).

2. Stabilization after the retreat of Russian troops from Kyiv (April-October).

3. Energy shock. Strikes against Ukraine's critical infrastructure (October 2022 - present).

3. The situation around Ukraine.

1. Sanctions against the Russian Federation.

2. Financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

3. grain deal.

4. Ukraine received the status of a candidate for the EU.

The course of the war 

Since the beginning of the year, the military preparations of the parties began to increase. Even before the start of the full-scale offensive of the Russian Federation, numerous messages and warnings about the impending invasion were received from Western countries, which were even published in the media since October 2021. The events were also preceded by the concentration of Russian troops near the Russian-Ukrainian border under the guise of exercises and the resulting crisis in relations between Russia and Ukraine. Western countries began supplying weapons to Ukraine, and Ukraine began redeploying troops to areas of a possible offensive. At the same time, Ukraine considered the threat of invasion, which was warned in the United States, to be overstated and even an attempt to blackmail - to push Ukraine to implement the Minsk agreements; and the most likely negative scenario is an invasion only in the Donbas region.

On February 21, Russia recognizes the independence of two occupied regions in eastern Ukraine - the so-called. "DNR" and "LNR". This leads to the first round of economic sanctions from Western countries. On February 23, Ukraine declared a state of emergency, and the "heads" of the so-called. "DNR" and "LNR". turned to Russia with a request for " assistance in repelling the military aggression of the Ukrainian regime ."

On February 24, 2022, the Russian Federation launched a full-scale war against Ukraine, which it called a “special operation”. Rocket strikes were carried out on military infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine. In his address, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin ordered a " special military operation " with the aim of " demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine ", and also asked the Ukrainian military to " take power into their own hands ".

President of Ukraine V. Zelensky announced a general mobilization, including the call for reservists. At the same time, all male citizens of Ukraine between the ages of 18 and 60 were banned from leaving the country. V. Zelensky called on world leaders to impose all possible sanctions against the Russian Federation, provide Ukraine with large-scale military assistance and close the airspace over Ukraine.

Fighting in Ukraine.

The fighting to a greater or lesser extent affected: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Zhytomyr regions of the country. A month after the start of the war, on March 29, Russia controlled - 165 thousand square meters. km. Ukrainian territory, about - 27% of the entire territory.

The first phase of the war.

Russian invasion

(February 24 - April 2022)

Initially, the main efforts of the Russian troops were concentrated on the rapid capture of large cities - primarily in the northern direction of Kyiv and Kharkiv, which, as a result, the Russian Federation did not succeed in realizing.

As a result of the first day of the war, Russian troops took control of the city of Genichesk, the city of Novaya Kakhovka, and the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the Chornobyl nuclear power plant, reached the approaches to the city of Konotop, the city of Sumy, the city of Okhtyrka, the city of Kharkiv and the city of Kherson. Separately, we note that on the first day of the war, Ukraine lost control over Snake Island, For the Russian troops, it was of great strategic importance. The island is located in the Black Sea near the mouth of the Danube River, 45 kilometers from the coast of Romania. Periodically, Ukraine tried to regain control over the island.

February 25 - The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation captured the city of Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia region, and reached the outskirts of the city of Chernihiv. Fights were fought with individual Russian units in the suburbs of Kyiv and Vasylkiv.

February 28 - the cities of Kupyansk and Berdyansk were occupied by Russian troops.

March 2 - Russian troops occupied the cities of Kherson, Tokmak, and Vasilievka,

Mariupol was completely blocked.

On March 4, Russian troops captured the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and the city of Energodar (according to Russian data, this happened on February 28)

In March, Bucha, Gostomel, Irpen, and Borodianka were under the control of the Russian Federation in the Kyiv region.

In mid-March, the Russian Federation already controlled the entire Kherson region.

captured Volnovakha during heavy fighting.

In early March, Mariupol was surrounded. At the same time, the Azovstal plant remained under the control of Ukraine for a long time, and the Ukrainian military took refuge there, including the Azov regiment. The defense of Azovstal lasted from March 18 to May 20, 2022. In September, Ukraine was able to return 215 servicemen from Russian captivity, 108 of them were Azov fighters.

On March 19, Ukraine lost access to the Sea of Azov.

By the second half of March, the attack on the city of Kyiv and the city of Mykolaiv had practically stopped.

By March 25, Russian troops were thrown back from Kyiv and were under the threat of encirclement by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

After the failure of the assault on the city of Kharkiv, the main direction of attacks shifted towards the city of Izyum, the city was captured on April 1.

On March 27, the Ukrainian side announced the transition to tactical counter-offensives in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Kherson regions.

The second phase of the war.

Withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv. Offensive in Donbass

(April - early September 2022)

After the Istanbul talks (March 29), as well as a clear defeat in the north of Ukraine, the Russian Federation decided to change plans and concentrate its main efforts in the east and south of Ukraine. The change in the tactical goals of the Russian Federation in Ukraine means the failure of the “special operation” to force the surrender of the government of Ukraine and the temporary refusal to occupy the entire territory. At the same time, the strategic goal remains - the military defeat of Ukraine and forcing the United States to a new division of geopolitical zones of influence.

In the first half of April, Russian troops (the so-called "goodwill gesture" of the RF Ministry of Defense) were completely withdrawn from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy regions to the territory of Belarus and the Russian Federation.

Some of these forces were transferred to the east of Ukraine to develop an offensive in the Donbas, and some were transferred near the city of Kharkiv. During this period, there was an operational pause at the front. The troops of the Russian Federation also continued to transfer forces to the direction of Izyum-Sloviansk to implement the operation to encircle the Donbas unit of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

After the withdrawal of Russian troops from the north of Ukraine, on the territory of the border regions of the Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, and Voronezh regions, large fuel bases and ammunition depots were increasingly subjected to shelling from the side of Ukraine; sabotage operations were carried out to destroy the transport infrastructure. At the same time, by the end of April, border areas on the territory of Ukraine (Sumy and Chernihiv regions) were under shelling.

On April 14, 2022, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the cruiser Moskva, was destroyed. It was hit by two missiles from the Ukrainian coastal anti-ship complex Neptune. This was a significant image blow for the Russian Federation. Part of the Russian ships operating in the north of the Black Sea near Odesa moved south, further from the Ukrainian coast, as their protection against air attacks was significantly reduced. The probability of landing operations of the Russian Federation in the area of Odesa or the city of Mykolaiv has also significantly decreased. But by the end of April, the Russian Federation began to increase the intensity of shelling of the coast of the Odessa region. In response, Ukrainian troops began to strike at the positions of the Russian Federation. Serpentine.

In general, the advance of Russian troops in the Donbas was not as fast as the Russian command expected.

18 - The Russian Armed Forces captured the city of Kremennaya.

May 8 - Ukrainian troops left the city of Popasna.

May 12 - Ukrainian troops left the city of Rubizhne

At the end of May, the Russian Armed Forces occupied the cities of Liman, the city of Svyatogorsk, and the city of Svetlodarsk ;

and the cities of Zolote passed under the control of Russian troops.

On June 25, Russian troops occupied the city of Severodonetsk.

In July, the Russian Federation announced the establishment of control over the entire territory of the Luhansk region. After that, it became clear that the large-scale Russian offensive on the Donetsk front had stalled.

On June 30, Ukraine managed to strike at those located on about. Serpentine positions of the Russian troops, as a result of which the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the retreat of its units from the island, calling this step also a " goodwill gesture ."

The third phase of the war

The counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (liberation of the Kharkiv region and Kherson)

(September - November 2022)

During this period, Ukraine managed to seize the initiative and the RF Armed Forces began to suffer defeats at the front. The new phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war was also characterized by the involvement of even more forces and means, the number and composition of the warring parties, the further scaling of the crisis, and the growing risks of using nuclear weapons. The Russian Federation, through the mechanisms of "nuclear blackmail", is trying to increase pressure on Ukraine's Western allies.

From mid-summer, information began to spread actively about the impending counteroffensive of Ukraine in the Kherson region. But in September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.

As of September 10, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated more than 3000 square kilometers of territory - more than 30 settlements, including the cities. Balakleya, Kupyansk and Izyum.

On September 11, Russian forces began to retreat from the north of the Kharkiv region - Ukrainian troops liberated Volchansk, and the front began to pass along the Russian-Ukrainian border and the Oskol River, later Ukrainian troops crossed the river in several places.

On September 12, the Armed Forces of Ukraine went on the offensive in the north of the Donetsk region and liberated the city of Svyatogorsk. October 1 - APU took the city of Liman.

During the counterattack from September 6 to September 12, the Ukrainian army liberated at least 300 settlements in the Kharkiv region, as well as some in the Donetsk region.

In October, the movement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donetsk region continued, then moved to the Lugansk region.

On September 21, after the rapid counter-offensive of the Ukrainian troops near the city of Kharkiv, President of the Russian Federation V. Putin announced a partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. Also, the so-called. "referendums" on joining the Russian Federation Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine. As a result of the so-called "referendums " on September 30, the Russian leadership announced the accession of these regions to the Russian Federation.

October 8 - the explosion on the Crimean bridge dealt another reputational blow to the Russian Federation and served as a formal reason for the implementation of the Russian strategy to destroy the energy infrastructure of Ukraine.

Since October 10, Ukraine has already been subjected to 9 major massive attacks using missiles and drones of Iranian origin. As a result, a very difficult situation with electricity supply has formed in the country, which also negatively affects the supply of Ukrainian troops.

Despite the illegal annexation, on November 9, under pressure from the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian command announced a retreat from the city of Kherson and the right-bank part of the Kherson region.

On November 11, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine entered Kherson.

The fourth phase of the war

Stabilization of the front-line struggle for the military initiative

(mid-November 2022 to date)

By the end of the year, the Ukrainian military had already liberated 7% of the territory of Ukraine, occupied since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Currently, the Russian Federation controls about 20% of the territory of Ukraine, including Donbas and Crimea - 100 thousand square meters. km.

Currently, there are processes of situational exhaustion and stabilization of the front line. The most active hostilities are taking place in the Donbas region. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue local offensives in the Bakhmut and Avdeevsky and Limansky, Zaporizhzhia directions - no significant advances were recorded anywhere. The Ukrainian army began to advance deep into the Luhansk region to capture the city of Kremennaya and the city of Svatove. There are no significant changes at the front, and the intensity of the fighting has not decreased. There is a heavy defense of the city of Bakhmut. The authorities of Ukraine are striving to keep the city at any cost, such a conclusion can be drawn from the visit of President V. Zelensky to the front.

In the Kherson direction, the RF Armed Forces are conducting defensive operations, reinforcing the group of troops. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine A. Reznikov claims that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go on the offensive with the onset of frost when the ground freezes.

Likely, the goal of the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may be the liberation of most of the south of Ukraine or the northern part of the Lugansk region. In particular, efforts can be directed to an important transport hub through which the land corridor to Crimea passes. Melitopol in the Zaporizhzhia direction, or Svatove, Starobelsk in the Luhansk.

The RF Armed Forces are also preparing a "winter offensive" by replenishing the army with mobilized ones. Such an offensive, more likely, may concern the Zaporizhzhia direction, or the northern part of the left-bank Ukraine (Chernihiv and Sumy regions). Information is being actively disseminated about the impending new offensive of the Russian Federation on Kyiv from the territory of Belarus.

A new military escalation of the conflict is quite likely. In general, the number of public manifestations of the attention of the Russian leadership to military operations in Ukraine has increased significantly. The collegium of the RF Ministry of Defense is the second event in the last week with the participation of the military, where the President of the Russian Federation appears. The day before, he visited the "special operation" control center.

By the end The war has entered an uncertain stage for Ukraine – new victories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming more and more difficult to achieve, and Russian military pressure has begun to increase again after mobilization, and this is happening against the backdrop of statements about the reduction of military stocks from the United States and other NATO countries – Ukraine’s key allies and suppliers. Also, the situation with Russian strikes on energy has seriously worsened recently, in connection with which Ukraine and its allies will incur additional costs.

Commentary - Candidate of Historical Sciences Sergey Tolstov: “The international system has such qualities as elasticity or friability. On the eve of the conflict, the United States made it clear that it would not be directly involved in the defense of Ukraine. But when a situation of a nuclear threat from the Russian Federation arises, then an attempt to overcome the created looseness of the international system is visible, but it becomes much more difficult to do this. In this case, the issue is moving into the mainstream of strategic stability and nuclear deterrence. Neither the United States, China, nor the Russian Federation wants a third nuclear war, they will use the element of nuclear deterrence and confrontation to push through their position, to force the opposite side to either retreat or remain silent, which will already be a certain political success.

Combat maps.

As of March 28, 2022.

 

As of April 4, 2022

As of December 20, 2022

negotiation process.

Minsk -Istanbul format

(from February 24 - April 2022)

The first two rounds of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place on the territory of Belarus on February 28 and March 3. Subsequently, the negotiation platform was moved to Turkey. It is worth noting that Turkey is trying to strengthen itself through the war in Ukraine, using its influence and contacts with V. Zelensky and V. Putin. Therefore, R. Erdogan sought to move the negotiation platform for Ukraine from Minsk. In general, the Ukrainian side believed that the move of negotiations from Belarus to Turkey was a victory. Since Turkey is considered one of the countries of security guarantors for Ukraine.

According to the head of the negotiating delegation of the Russian Federation V. Medinsky, Ukraine allegedly agrees to the Swedish or Austrian model of neutrality in exchange for security guarantees. For his part, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, says that Ukraine offers a “Ukrainian” model of neutrality. First, absolute security guarantees. And secondly, Ukraine no longer wants to depend on bureaucratic procedures that allow or do not allow closing the sky from the same cruise missiles. We need direct and hard guarantees that the sky will be closed.

President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, in an interview with opposition Russian media, detailed the Ukrainian negotiating position for the planned meeting of the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Turkey on March 29. According to the President, Ukraine is ready for a settlement formula: " security guarantees-neutrality-non-nuclear status ". This formula can be implemented in stages (in order of precedence ):

• Signing of the agreement by the presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine;

• Withdrawal of Russian and LDNR troops to the borders as of February 24, 2022;

• Signing of an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine and guarantor countries (formerly called the United States, Britain, Turkey, Germany, France, Poland, and others);

• Ratification of treaties in the Parliament of Ukraine and parliaments of other countries;

• Holding a referendum in Ukraine and, based on its results, amending the Constitution of Ukraine.

According to our assessment, even if agreements are reached, the procedure for amending the Constitution of Ukraine and the referendum could last until December 2022. The very reference to the idea of a "referendum" and "guarantor countries" is perceived in the Russian Federation as a dragging out of time, calming down the patriotic environment within Ukraine, and looks like an attempt to share responsibility.

The next round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on March 29 in Turkey. By and large, the " formula of the entire Ukrainian proposal " is that Ukraine agrees to a neutral status in exchange for real security guarantees, and the issues of Crimea and Donbas are taken out of the scope of negotiations and postponed to the future. The delegation of the Russian Federation took 2 weeks to discuss this plan.

Following the results of the talks in Istanbul, the head of the Russian delegation, V. Medinsky, said that Ukraine had handed over the principles of a possible future agreement fixed on paper, which provide for:

- refusal to join NATO, fixing the bloc -free status of Ukraine;

- renunciation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction;

— refusal to deploy foreign military bases and military contingents;

- an obligation to conduct military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states, including Russia.

On the part of the Russian Federation, they note that in the Ukrainian proposals many provisions are difficult to implement:

- there are no other Russian demands in the draft Treaty - demilitarization, denazification, changes in humanitarian policy, recognition of the Russian status of Crimea, and the independence of ORDLO. Why should Russia refuse them?

- discussion of the status of Crimea. It is unlikely that the Russian Federation will agree to discuss the status of Crimea after the amendments to the Constitution and the start of the war. RF considers this issue closed;

- the procedure for implementing the Agreement. In particular, the withdrawal of Russian troops to hold a referendum and amend the Constitution of Ukraine and the lack of guarantees for their implementation. In addition, this format of implementation will stretch for 6-12 months;

-the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders on February 23, which means the loss of not only 2/3 of the territories of the "LPR", the possibility of military pressure on the city of Kyiv, but also the abandonment of the Kherson region - the land bridge to the Crimea, water to the Crimean Canal, electricity from the ZNPP.

- there is no question of sanctions;

- the process of negotiations with potential guarantor countries and others has not even begun.

Ukraine is trying to create a new NATO around itself since the proposed security guarantees exceed those that operate even within the alliance.

But not all Western countries are ready to support these agreements; the United States and Great Britain are opposed.

Halt of the negotiation process and annexation

occupied by the Russian Federation

(April - end of September 2022)

In early April, as the territory previously occupied by the Russian military was liberated, reports began to come in that the bodies of hundreds of civilians were found in Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, several dozen of them were lying right on the street. Ukraine accused the Russian Federation of committing war crimes - killings of civilians, torture, and extrajudicial executions. After that, the insignificant progress achieved by the parties in Istanbul on March 29, 2022, was disavowed. Against the backdrop of the events in the city of Bucha, the EU countries massively began to expel Russian diplomats from their countries. The UN General Assembly suspended Russia's participation in the Council of the Human Rights Organization. At the same time, Russia rejects all accusations at all official levels, calling them, in particular, fakes and staged filming. An international investigation is underway. All these events only raise the degree of confrontation between the parties and complicate the already heavily advanced negotiation process.

In mid-April, Ukraine received from Russia proposals for a draft document on a peace agreement (proposed by Ukraine at the Istanbul meeting on March 29), which is now being worked on.

Working legal subgroups are finalizing the agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine regarding its compliance with international law. Regarding security guarantees, the Ukrainian side insists that the guarantor countries must state the principle that an attack on Ukraine means an attack on themselves. Guarantees for the supply of weapons, the creation of an "unmanned zone", and military consultations are key for Ukraine. But in general, negotiations on security guarantees between Ukraine and the guarantor countries do not yet have certain specifics.

One of the most contentious issues in the negotiations remains the fate of the Donbas and Crimea, as well as the issue of the post-war borders of Ukraine.

April - May. Ukraine demands the withdrawal of troops to the pre-war borders, the Russian Federation wants to maintain control over the captured part of the south of Ukraine. Also, the most pressing issues of the negotiation process are security guarantees and the neutral status of Ukraine.

There is a general hardening of the rhetoric of all parties to the conflict and a declarative stake in armed confrontation. A new round of sanctions against Russia - the EU introduces the fifth package of restrictions, and the US imposes an embargo on energy carriers.

After the arrival of British Prime Minister B. Johnson in Kyiv, Ukraine's position on the peace talks changed somewhat. Mikhail Podolyak, the adviser to the head of the OPU, announces that a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin is possible only after Ukraine wins major battles, in particular, in the Donbas.

During this period, the negotiation process finally degraded. On May 17, the parties stated the absence of a negotiation process. Since that time, negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation have been held in a technical format, where various kinds of humanitarian issues, the exchange of prisoners, etc. have been discussed.

After the city of Izyum (Kharkiv region), as well as other cities of the Kharkiv region, was liberated from Russian troops, Ukraine accused the Russian Federation of war crimes. The mass graves that were discovered in the liberated city of Izyum are expected to produce an information resonance similar to the one that was after the publication of the events in the city of Bucha (Kyiv region ). In Ukraine, they hope to strengthen the assistance of Western countries, in particular, financial and military. In connection with this event, Western countries (in particular, the United States) show support for Ukraine's efforts to document the war crimes of Russian troops.

September 21-30. The announcement in the Russian Federation of partial mobilization, as well as the holding of the so-called. "referenda" and the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions - all this further devalues the Russian Federation as a participant in negotiations, extremely narrows the field of topics available for dialogue from Ukraine. There will be no political negotiations in the coming months, even though part of the Western elites, after the failures of the Russian army in the Kharkiv region, want to persuade Russian President V. Putin to negotiate and make concessions.

Negotiating ultimatums

(October 2022 to date)

After the so-called. "referendum" and the Russian annexation of the occupied territories. The positions of the parties diverge even more - the Russian Federation now requires Ukraine to recognize the loss of not only the Crimea and Donbas but also the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. The Russian Federation reported that the issue of ownership of the new regions of Russia will not be discussed at the talks with Ukraine. In turn, Ukraine is already insisting on the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of 1991, and not to the borders before February 24, as it was before.

In October, a decree was published on the website of the President of Ukraine on the entry into force of the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, which stated "the impossibility of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin."

It is likely that under the influence of the allied countries, the Ukrainian position is somewhat changing, from the unacceptability of any dialogue with V. Putin to putting forward some demands and ultimatums, which, it is possible, can be softened overtime during the negotiation process.

On November 15, V. Zelensky spoke via video link to representatives of the G20 countries who came to the summit in Indonesia and announced his "peace formula" of 10 points:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety;

2. Food security;

3. Energy security;

4. Release of all prisoners and deportees;

5. Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of territorial integrity and the world order;

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities;

7. Return of justice, that is, a tribunal for those responsible for aggression and compensation for damage;

8. Counteracting ecocide;

9. Ukraine's security guarantees to prevent escalation;

10. Fixing the end of the war.

This plan, in its content, actually leaves no room for acceptable compromises, which could be at least partially agreed upon in the Russian Federation. At the same time, the peace plan of V. Zelensky already makes it possible to demonstrate at the level of third countries Ukraine's supposedly constructive desire for negotiations. Previously, putting forward unacceptable conditions to the opponent, this “game” was played in the Russian Federation with ostentatious readiness to conclude peace agreements.

On December 13, the G7 countries supported the peace plan of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. This means that the allied countries are trying to increase pressure on the Russian Federation as much as possible. Such an appeal will mean a call for the Russian Federation to capitulate, to which the Russian leadership is expected to not agree. At the same time, under such pressure, the Russian Federation can mobilize its forces within the country, informationally beating the situation as a "war for the survival of the nation" for the Russians.

Since mid-December, there has been a general activity of the Russian authorities about the issue of Ukraine. The military leadership of the Russian Federation most likely turned to V. Putin with a request to exert political pressure on A. Lukashenko regarding the speedy entry of the Republic of Belarus into the war against Ukraine. The upcoming visit of V. Putin to Minsk may serve as a sign of a wider involvement of the armed forces, in particular the Republic of Belarus (RB), in the war against Ukraine, as well as the strengthening of the integration processes of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation. Given that the leader of the Republic of Belarus, A. Lukashenko, is in no way interested in directly participating in the conflict, the Russian leadership will probably "push through" the necessary solution. And the statements of the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry that there are no plans for a joint operation with Belarus against Ukraine may act as disinformation.

The visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to Washington can also be considered the outcome of the year of the negotiation process.

On December 21, President V. Zelensky went on a visit to the United States. At the same time, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation D. Medvedev is going to China with a message from the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin. One of the important reasons for the visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the United States is a possible discussion of the conditions on which the war could end. The United States and Ukraine will likely synchronize their positions on a peaceful settlement. Given the simultaneous visits of President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the United States and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation D. Medvedev to China, this may be also an attempt by China and the United States to understand what kind of compromise peace conditions can be discussed. But judging by the official rhetoric of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, no changes in this direction are expected yet, and the authorities will keep the chosen course unchanged.

Also, one of the main reasons why the White House invited the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the United States is the desire to support their efforts to further finance the Ukrainian case. This is especially important in the conditions put forward by the claims of the Republican Party, which will control the House of Representatives from the new year. D. Biden invited V. Zelensky to put pressure on Congress, which is invited to allocate more than $45 billion for military needs in Ukraine. The visit of V. Zelensky will certainly increase his authority in the international arena. It is possible that in this way the US leadership partially shifts responsibility to V. Zelensky for the consequences of the continuation of the war.

For its part, the Russian Federation seeks to enlist the informal support of China regarding the conflict in Ukraine, and, most likely, the Russian leadership sought to inform Xi Jinping about the further directions of their actions. It is also important to note the further ideological synchronization between the Russian Federation and the PRC, which share common geopolitical goals - the change from a unipolar world order to a multipolar one.

the situation around the ZNPP or similar man-made facilities (nuclear power plants, large dams, industrial chemical facilities, and so on) can become a conflict switch in the direction of de-escalation or maximum escalation. From August 2022 the situation at the Zaporizhzhya NPP remains difficult, the plant and surrounding areas continue to be shelled. Zaporizhzhia NPP is disconnected from the Ukrainian energy system. The IAEA mission released a report calling for the immediate creation of a safe zone around the station.

Currently, negotiations are underway regarding the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhya NPP. But in general, the situation remains unclear. It is not yet clear who will control the station. Ukraine demands the withdrawal of Russian troops from there, the Russian Federation denies such a possibility. As well as the possibility that the station will be transferred to the control of someone other than Rosatom. The station periodically continues to be shelled. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, said that a protective zone around the station can be agreed upon and will work soon. The option of the Russian Federation withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhya NPP in exchange for guarantees for the pumping of gas and oil is probable. The Russian Federation needs proceeds from the sale of energy carriers to the EU.

The price ceiling, which came into effect on December 5, includes restrictions on oil shipped by sea. The Russian Federation still has an alternative route through the Druzhba pipeline, the southern branch of which passes through the territory of Ukraine to the EU. French President Emmanuel Macron said that there is an agreement on the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Ukrainian Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and that negotiations are being conducted on these terms.

In general, the situation around the Zaporizhzhya NPP remains a conflict switch, which can lead to both an escalation of the conflict, its transition to a new phase, and its freezing. But based on this crisis, a new "nuclear" negotiating track can be created.

The internal situation in Ukraine.

Domestic policy.

Maximum consolidation of society.

(February 24 - June 2022)

With the beginning of the war, a real explosion of social solidarity took place in Ukrainian society, which at that time united all segments of the population. A huge number of people signed up for the territorial defense, and the armed forces of Ukraine, and many became volunteers. The Armed Forces enjoy the greatest support. We also see a rapid increase in support for the authorities in general and the President in particular (according to various estimates, his activities are approved by 88% to 91% of citizens).

Mainly due to the significant consolidation of Ukrainian society, the blitzkrieg of the "special operation" of the Russian Federation failed. In general, such a level of Ukrainian resistance was not expected to be seen either in the Russian Federation or in Western-allied countries, where they predicted the fall of Kyiv in 4-5 days. And this had a significant impact on the level of military and financial support subsequently provided to Ukraine. The war itself has moved into a protracted phase, in which the key role will be played by the consolidation of Ukrainian society and the readiness to endure various hardships and crises, primarily of energy, food, and price nature.

Comment - political expert Vladislav Dzividzinsky: "Ukraine has become a full-fledged subject on the international map of the world. Since this year, Ukraine has ceased to be an appendage of the Russian Federation and a new political nation is being formed in our country. Ukraine has made a huge breakthrough in diplomatic relations, and today the voice of Ukraine, the voice of the Ukrainian President, is heard in all international organizations. At present, Ukraine must form a vision of its future for itself. Right now, a window of opportunity is being formed when Ukraine can make proposals to the world on the direction of further development. It is possible to make a breakthrough, the country already has positive cases and quickly turned into a digital state. For example, Ukraine can sell ideas on IT markets."

Commentary - political expert Ruslan Bizyaev: “ Still, it cannot be said that Ukraine has become subjective this year. The main thing in this matter is not even the huge dependence of our country on Western military and financial assistance. The biggest problem is that our old elites still do not have a clear model for the development of the country for at least the next 10-15 years, they are not ready for a new policy and are not ready to take responsibility.”

Commentary - director of the Department of Information Policy Ruslan Bortnik: “ The concept of “civil society” today is a passionate part of society, which at critical moments takes on the function of the state, the defense of this state, social protection, and even the function of international politics .”

Commentary - security expert Sergey Shabovta: “In the fact that in the first days of the war the country withstood the onslaught of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a moral and psychological factor played a significant role - the internal heroism of society and the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But, unfortunately, the government largely underestimates this factor and does not consider it necessary to strengthen it. For example, it would be necessary to pay more attention to psychological preparation and other skills. But instead, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine is adopting bill No. 8271 on strengthening criminal liability for the military .”

In March, the Verkhovna Rada passes a series of laws regulating the life of the country during the war. Also, the features of the management of the budget by the Cabinet of Ministers under the conditions of martial law were adopted; an increase of 67 billion in spending on the army; liberalization of labor legislation under martial law; additional tax incentives to support businesses during the war. Incl. the abolition of fuel taxation and the introduction of a preferential regime for entrepreneurs (2% of turnover). Valid during military and state of emergency; features of the budgeting of the judicial system.

Among other things, the parliament gave the National Security and Defense Council the authority to recognize the territories of Ukraine as temporarily occupied in wartime. What is a reaction to the information that in the occupied territory in the Kherson region, Russia can hold a "referendum" and organize "KhNR" there. After the territory is recognized as temporarily occupied, a ban is introduced on holding elections of deputies of local councils, village, settlement, city chairmen, local and any other referendums, and non-recognition by Ukraine of their consequences if they are held.

In April. The SBU announced the arrest of the leader of the Opposition Platform for Life V. Medvedchuk, whom the authorities will later try to use as a bargaining with the Russian Federation. The detention of V. Medvedchuk may also mean the resumption of the case against P. Poroshenko, with whom V. Zelensky competes for the right-wing electoral segment. Subsequently, V. Medvedchuk will be exchanged for captured fighters from the Azov regiment.

Director of NABU Artem Stynik was removed from his post due to the expiration of the contract. An interesting point is that the Western lobby did not fight for this chair. Therefore, this signals that in large offices they are betting on a negative scenario for the Ukrainian crisis, they do not consider these “armchairs and positions” important in the current realities.

The Concern for Radio Broadcasting, Radio Communications and Television (KRRT) turned off the broadcasting of the Ukrainian TV channels Pryamoy and Channel 5, as well as Espresso. These TV channels are associated with the former President of the country, Petro Poroshenko. The incident may fit into the process of concentration of maximum power in the hands of the President and his team, establishing full control over the information space of the country.

In May, the Government of Ukraine suspended state regulation of motor fuel prices. An agreement was reached with market operators on the maximum cost of gasoline and diesel fuel at filling stations. It is expected that the maximum prices for diesel fuel will not exceed 58 hryvnias per liter, and for gasoline - 52 hryvnia. In case of violation of agreements and abuses in the market, sanctions will be imposed against the operators. But even if small wholesale prices are taken as a guideline, they will exceed the guideline recommended by the government for retail prices after the deregulation. Taking into account the markup of gas stations, prices will be approximately 60-72 hryvnias for diesel and 55-65 hryvnias for A-95 gasoline.

Parliament passed three bills that change labor legislation. No. 7251 (on the simplified termination of labor contracts during martial law), No. 5371 (introduction of the contractual regime of labor relations for small and medium-sized businesses), and No. 5266 (on collective agreements). The latter was voted as a whole, and the rest were accepted as a basis. The main thing that changes these documents is that in Ukraine many articles of the Labor Code are actually "turned off", including those on working conditions, vacations, and payments. All will be governed by individual and collective labor contracts. Against the background of the war in the country, unemployment is rising and wages are falling, and contract work carries great risks to workers' rights.

The Parliament of Ukraine supported the changes to the budget, increasing spending by 287 billion.

Personnel reformatting

(June - October 2022)

Disagreements in the government team. Within the command of power, two main lines of friction are outlined, the main reason for which may be competition for public opinion, Western political support, and financial assistance.

Office of the President of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy recorded a video message in which he made Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny responsible for the poor equipment of the Ukrainian army. Also, a wave of confessions about the military losses of Ukraine begins. In particular, government officials voiced the loss of Ukrainian troops at the front from 60 to 500 dead per day.

Office of the President and the National Security and Defense Council. Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Alexei Danilov often made statements that were not consistent with the overall communication strategy of the state. In addition, a conflict has recently been growing between him and the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak. Responding to criticism by the advisers to the head of the OP, NSDC Secretary A. Danilov criticized the "figures" who call the loss of Ukrainian troops at the front at 200, 300, or 1000 dead per day; and who previously collaborated with V. Yanukovych (meaning the adviser to the head of the OP M. Podolyak).

Pro-Russian" parties were banned in Ukraine. On June 20, 2022, the Eighth Court of Appeal in Lviv satisfied the claim of the Ministry of Justice and banned the political party "Opposition Platform – For Life" (already the 9th party ). The day before, the court banned the Left Opposition, Sharia Party "and the Socialist Party, which has functioned since 1991. Along with this, the Lviv court banned the Opposition Bloc, Socialists, Derzhava, Vladimir Saldo Bloc, OURS, and the Justice and Development Party. The ban on "pro-Russian parties" is an important symbolic step, which is primarily aimed at once again demonstrating to Ukrainian society the patriotism of the current government. At the same time, it is possible that in this way the field is cleared for new parties of the left type, but already under the control of the Office president.

The authorities are going to cut the state apparatus three times. The Ukrainian authorities plan to reduce the state apparatus by 3 times due to digitalization. The proposal is to leave only 65,000 employees instead of 238,000, while almost halving budget spending on salaries for officials - from UAH 46 billion to 500 million. up to UAH 26 billion respectively. The reduction of the state apparatus is also an attempt to save budgetary funds, as well as to "clean out" an element of the state apparatus that is disloyal to the current government since it was largely formed by the team of ex-president P. Poroshenko, Ukrainian oligarchs, who have lost some of their influence. At the same time, this will provoke additional unemployment among officials and intensify the crisis in relations between the bureaucracy and the authorities.

From July 1, 2022, Ukraine will introduce a visa regime for entry for citizens of the Russian Federation.

President V. Zelensky instructed the General Staff to lift the ban on the departure of those liable for military service outside their place of residence. Representatives of the Servant of the People criticize the statement of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the ban on men moving around the country without the permission of the military commissar. In their opinion, this will generate local corruption and bring down the economy due to legal and logical inconsistencies.

The conflict between individual leaders of local self-government and the executive vertical spilled over into the public plane. The mayors demand that purchases in the interests of the country's defense be returned to the accelerated procedure, as was the case at the beginning of the war.

On July 18, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the country's Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova and the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanov. This is an attempt by the Ukrainian authorities to channel criticism from Western elites, as well as to shift responsibility for the seizure of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and the failure of the anti-corruption policy, which caused a deterioration in relations with the US and the EU. In general, the new appointments of the heads of the OGPU (A. Symonenko) and the SBU ( V. Malyuk ), due to their proximity to the head of the Office of the President Andriy Yermak, strengthen his position in the political system and influence on decision-making.

The demonstrative deprivation of citizenship of G. Korban and one of the major Ukrainian entrepreneurs I. Kolomoisky and other persons are probably a demonstration to the Ukrainian elites that any competition with the presidential vertical is unacceptable today and will be suppressed. The situation with I. Kolomoisky was probably also influenced by the investigations and lawsuits that are now being conducted against him in the United States. Separately, the situation around G. Korban is connected with the accusations of US Congresswoman Victoria Spartz towards the head of the Office of President Andriy Yermak. Probably, the OP believes that it was G. Korban who turned V. Spartz against the Ukrainian leadership.

August Cabinet accelerates the process of preparation for the heating season. Due to the war with Russia, gas use has been reduced by 40%. In general, Ukraine should have enough energy reserves to pass the heating season, if the main power plants (thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, pumped storage power plants, and nuclear power plants) are not destroyed as a result of hostilities in the country, then. But if the country's infrastructure is destroyed in winter, a humanitarian catastrophe may also await.

The head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, V. Zaluzhny, announced the death toll of the Ukrainian military at 9 thousand people, this number most likely applies only to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, without taking into account other law enforcement agencies (Ministry of Internal Affairs, SBU) and foreign volunteers.

Beginning of September. In the internal politics of Ukraine, the struggle for influence on the heads of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP) manifested itself. In particular, the Committee on the Organization of State Power recommended that the Parliament adopt draft law No. 7654 “On Amendments to Certain Laws of Ukraine Regarding the Unification of Requirements for the Heads of Certain State Bodies”, which in general may call into question the independence of the directors of NABU and SAPO. Such a step could negatively affect the process of Ukraine's accession to the EU. This is probably why bill No. 7654 was subsequently removed from the parliament's agenda.

In September Ukraine returned 215 servicemen from Russian captivity, 108 of them are Azov fighters. The intermediaries of the exchange were Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which today are in difficult relations with the Western world and which do not unambiguously take the side of Ukraine in the war.

In Ukraine, they may introduce punishment for obtaining Russian citizenship. It is likely that in this way, through the tightening of legislation, the Ukrainian authorities are struggling with the consequences of Russian passportization in the occupied territories.

In October, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognized the territory of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as occupied. Such a step on the part of Ukraine can be regarded as a response to Russia's annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories. If this decision is supported by other countries (the Baltic countries, Poland, the UK, and so on), this will mean that a new approach to fragmentation and fragmentation of Russia is behind this.

Strengthening the presidential vertical of power

(October 2022 to date)

In the domestic politics of Ukraine, a series of important personnel changes are taking place, the political struggle has intensified, and political and corruption scandals continue. The process of concentration of maximum power in the hands of the President and his team has accelerated.

In October, against the backdrop of the ongoing mass shelling of Ukraine, the High-Level International Energy Advisory Council was established under the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, aimed at providing support and assistance to the Ukrainian energy industry. The platform of this council will be used to manage Ukrainian energy and cooperation in this direction between Ukraine and Western partners. Ukraine is entering a very difficult heating season and the future of the energy system will largely depend on international partners.

The internal confrontation between the authorities and the opposition financial and political groups continues. Suspicion was reported to 15 persons involved in the introduction and operation of the so-called "Rotterdam +" formula (selling Ukrainian coal for generating companies at the price of imported coal, including delivery), due to which Rinat Akhmetov's DTEK and Centrenergo sold electricity to consumers at overpriced from 2016 to 2019 Potentially, R. Akhmetov (as a co-owner of coal and generating companies) and P. Poroshenko (as the President of Ukraine, who politically "covered" this formula) could become the targets of this investigation. Also, this case may lead to another round of redistribution of property in Ukraine and/or the nationalization of some energy companies.

There was a change in the head of the board of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy Y. Vitrenko, probably because the entire energy segment of Ukraine is moving into a more serious influence of international partners and its future will largely depend on their participation in Ukrainian energy projects. The Cabinet of Ministers appointed the former Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories Alexei Chernyshov to the post of head of the board.

The process of nationalization of strategic enterprises (associated with Konstantin Zhivago, Ihor Kolomoisky, Vyacheslav Boguslaev, and Konstantin Grigorishin ) begins, marking the beginning of the largest reallocation of property in Ukraine since independence. Significantly, the assets of the oligarchs fell under "nationalization", less than others seen in supporting the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state in the war against the Russian Federation. In general, we are talking about a decision to alienate assets worth almost $1 billion. The President of Ukraine and his team thus demonstrate the fight against the oligarchs, which is positively perceived by Ukrainian society and supported by Western partners. But the main goal of nationalization likely was to gain full control over enterprises (the list can be expanded from time to time) and their financial and material resources.

The political-religious question became more active. So the SBU conducted searches in the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and in several churches and monasteries of the UOC in Rivne, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi regions, and Transcarpathia. Also, this situation was influenced by the issue of building a national church, the conflict between the part of President's entourage and some key UOC activists, and the playing of the religious card by part of the regional and political forces. Probably, the outcome of these discussions will determine the further course of events around the UOC.

The Office of the President commented on the removal of the video from the account of Ursula von der Leyen on Twitter, where she said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost more than 100 thousand killed and wounded. Presidential speaker Sergei Nikiforov said that information about losses is "sensitive", so the commander in chief, the defense minister, and the president can voice it. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine declares that they cannot voice losses in the war since this is proprietary information and falls under the restriction of disclosure. In Ukraine, now the losses of Ukrainian troops are not voiced. The last figure was officially announced at the end of September by Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar - the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the war against Russia amount to more than 9 thousand, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine V. Zaluzhny spoke about this at the time. Later, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, said that between 10,000 and 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died since February.

The escalation around the Ukrainian Orthodox Church ( Blessed Onufry) continues to grow. The Verkhovna Rada Committee on Humanitarian and Information Policy has supported three bills relating to the activities of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), which essentially prohibit its activities. But based on the statement of the head of the relevant committee and one of the leaders of the ruling party "Servant of the People" N. Poturaev, it can be assumed that the authorities are not going to directly ban the UOC yet, but are pushing this religious denomination to voluntarily abandon canonical ties with the ROC and change parts hierarchs. The inclusion in the sanctions lists of the manager of the affairs of the UOC also complicates the functioning of the Church as a legal entity, the renewal of lease agreements with state authorities, registers of charters, and so on. It is noteworthy that the primate of the UOC, Metropolitan Onufry, has not yet come under sanctions. This may indicate that the final political decision regarding the UOC has not been made.

The process of personnel rotation continues. So the former head of the Ministry of Infrastructure A. Kubrakov was appointed to the post of Vice Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine, he will also head the joint Ministry for the Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure. A. Kubrakov largely enjoys the confidence of the Office of the President and now he will oversee the main source of possible shadow income for the authorities - the Big Construction project, for which the new budget of Ukraine for 2023. provided - UAH 64 billion. Thus, the figure of A. Kubrakov is greatly enhanced, in fact, now, he is the most likely candidate for the new post of the prime minister of the country. That is, A. Kubrakov becomes the main competitor of the current Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmyhal,

There were also personnel changes in the Verkhovna Rada Committees: The change of the head of the budget committee will strengthen the position of the head of the Office of President A. Yermak - since the new figure in this position is R. Pidlas, rather his creature, unlike the former head Y. Aristov, with whom A. Yermak has conflict relations. In place of the head of the Committee for Regional Development, the chairman of the Servant of the People party, E. Shulyak, replaced the figure of A. Klochko, who had become somewhat toxic for this position, appeared in corruption scandals. A. Zadorozhny becomes the head of the Human Rights Committee, instead of D. Lubents, who previously held this position, he is now the Commissioner for Human Rights of the Verkhovna Rada.

In parallel, the struggle for control over the Accounts Chamber begins.

There is also a struggle for influence on KSU. The Constitutional Court of Ukraine at a meeting on December 7 supported the resignation of three judges.

The National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NERCU) has launched an investigation into the activities of the energy holdings of DTEK Group Rinat Akhmetov. What can be regarded both as pressure on the oligarch himself and as a possible preparation for the further nationalization of enterprises.

The struggle for influence on the Budget Committee of the Verkhovna Rada continues. The case of the People's Deputy from the "Servant of the People" Alexander Trukhin was submitted to the court. In August 2021, the people's deputy got into an accident and tried to bribe the patrolmen to leave the scene, he faces a fine or up to 4 years in prison. Most likely, the transfer of the case of A. Trukhanov to the court is connected with the recent personnel changes in the budget committee of the Verkhovna Rada. Most of the members of the committee went to the group of People's Deputy Alexander Trukhin. The former head of the budget committee, Y. Aristov, has good relations with the leadership of NABU.

In December, the Verkhovna Rada formally completed the fulfillment of obligations on candidacy for EU membership, which was once again used to strengthen the position of the Office of the President of Ukraine in the political system. Thus, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law that changes the procedure for selecting judges of the Constitutional Court, the law on the media, illicit enrichment, and the law on national minorities - one of the main requirements for Ukraine's candidacy in the European Union. But in general, it is worth noting that, in part, these laws become a tool for expanding powers and strengthening the current government. Thus, the President's team completes the process of establishing control over the media environment, solves its problems in the field of the judiciary, and strengthens control over the judicial system, which opens the way to pro-presidential political reform.
 

Sociology.

Before the war, V. Zelensky was in the lead in the presidential rating with a score of 24.6%. (According to the data of the survey of the Sociological Group "Rating" February 12-13, 2022) In the parliamentary rating, "Servant of the People" was in the lead with the result - of 18.3% of respondents.

The latest studies that would show how much Ukrainian society approves of the actions of President V. Zelensky were conducted in November 2021. (Sociological group "Rating"). Then the work of President V. Zelensky was satisfying - 33%; dissatisfied -65%; balance -(-32%). From December 2020 this indicator has not changed (-1% within the margin of error).

After the outbreak of war According to a Pew Research Center poll (March 31, 2022), President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky receives extremely positive assessments from the American public. About seven out of ten Americans trust President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, which is higher than any other international leader -72%. Do not trust - 26%.

June 30, according to research commissioned by The Wall Street Journal and the NORC Research Institute. 78% of Ukrainian citizens surveyed support President V. Zelensky in how he reacts to the Russian invasion.

July 1, 2022: New National Democratic Institute (NDI) poll published by KIIS

The attitude of citizens to political parties of Ukraine:

"Servant of the People" - 46% positively; 11% negative.

The leader of the sympathies of the citizens of Ukraine is:

• President of Ukraine V. Zelensky - 88% against - 7%

Citizens of Ukraine evaluate the activity:

• President of Ukraine V. Zelensky

• positive - 88%

• neither good nor bad - 6%

• bad - 4%

citizens of Ukraine trust:

• APU - 97% versus -1%

• DSNS - 87% vs. 3%

• National Guard - 85% vs. 3%

• President V. Zelensky - 85% against - 6%

According to the study by (International Republican Institute (IRI) dated August 11 ( conducted from June 27 to 28, 2022)

• 98% - of citizens of Ukraine are sure that their country will win the war.

• 91% - approve the work of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky.

In the presidential elections in Ukraine, V. Zelensky would have won in the first round with a score of 73.5%.

The Center for Sociological Research " Pulse" in November published a study among the citizens of Ukraine, according to which:

Citizens determine that things in Ukraine are moving in the right direction - 89.2%

• Think it's wrong - 4.4%

• The actions of the incumbent President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky approve - 83 %.

• At the same time, approval of the activities of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine has only 27.5%.

If the elections of the President of Ukraine were taking place now, the respondents would vote for such candidates:

• V. Zelensky is the undisputed leader and would have been elected in the first round, with a score of almost 62% (among all) and 73.5% (among those who made their choice).

• In second place by a wide margin is the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny 9.7% (among all) and 11.6% (among those who have made their choice).

• On the third 5th President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko - 4.4% (among all) and 5.3% (among those who have decided).

Regarding voting in parliamentary elections:

• The highest level of support is for the Servant of the People party - 29.7% (among all) and 47.9% (among those who have decided)

• “ European Solidarity” – 7.6% (among all respondents) and 12.2% (among those who have decided who to vote for).

• " Sila i Honour" - 4.1% (among all) or 6.6% (decided for whom to vote).

, the Udar party would have made it to the Verkhovna Rada, 3.6% (among all) and 5.8% (among those who have decided).

• The passage of the electoral threshold of 5% is questionable, "Smart Politics" - 4.9% (among those who have decided who to vote for) and the Batkivshchyna Party - 4.7% (among those who have decided).

• In general, the results of the survey show that the citizens of Ukraine still mostly approve of the actions of the incumbent President of Ukraine, who is also an isolated leader in the presidential rating (support at the loss of the second round of the 2019 elections is 73.5%). In the parliamentary elections, the pro-government Servant of the People party also holds the lead (47.9%).

Commentary - Director of the Pulse Center for Sociological Research Sergey Nuzhdin: “ If in 2021 we saw how support for President V. Zelensky gradually decreased, and the ratings of systemic politicians increased, then with the start of the war, all these processes were reset. At present, there is a consolidation of society around the authorities, it is expected that this situation will not change until the end of the war. Also, V. Zelensky, even though he has been in power for three years, continues to satisfy society's request for "new faces ".

Economic situation.

initial shock

(February 24 - April)

Before the invasion, Ukraine's losses from disseminating information about the invasion amounted to $2-3 billion per month, and the speculative pressure on the country's currency market due to such reports was estimated at $1.5-2 billion.

After the start of the invasion, many logistics chains were completely broken, many enterprises were physically destroyed, some were unable to work in war mode, and there was a significant outflow of labor. As of mid-March, more than 2.5 million people left Ukraine, then this figure will increase significantly to 12.5 million. Up to 6.5 million Ukrainians are internally displaced (IDPs). Since March, this figure has remained almost unchanged. The war harmed - slowed down, reduced, and even stopped - 86% of Ukrainian companies. Export deliveries from Ukraine are practically blocked. At the beginning of the war, the central bank fixed the dollar exchange rate at 29.25 hryvnias.

Ukraine has lost control of the largest of the four operating power plants, the 6,000-megawatt Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at Energodar.

On the night of February 24, Ukraine completely disconnected from the Russian and Belarusian energy systems and operates offline.

On March 14, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko noted that "the negative consequences of the war will be colossal," since the share of 10 regions in which hostilities were taking place at that time accounts for half of GDP. He noted that, according to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, "losses will amount to from a third to half of GDP", and "according to another estimate, we are talking about $ 500 billion." Marchenko stressed: "We have huge budget costs with sharply reduced revenues. "

On March 20, the Ministry of Economy said that, according to preliminary tax calculations, about 30% of the economy is not working. Since tax and customs revenues have fallen significantly due to hostilities, the main source of covering the needs of the state budget of Ukraine is internal and external borrowing.

On March 28, Minister of Energy of Ukraine German Galushchenko, in an interview with Ekonomicheskaya Pravda, said that since the outbreak of hostilities, coal production had decreased by about 30%, noting that the Zolote and Toshkovskaya mines were in a state of flooding and could not be restored, as well as under the threat of flooding of the YUD-1 mine.

The first foreign grants and loans began to arrive within a few days after the start of the invasion. The main donor countries are the USA, EU, Germany, Canada, and Great Britain. Their contribution is one-third of the consolidated budget expenditures as of the beginning of November. The total need for financing since February has exceeded $45 billion. The lack of funds had to be covered by issuing hryvnia for the equivalent of $12 billion.

The ferrous metallurgy industry, which is key for Ukraine, has lost about a third of its assets. Destroyed the second and third largest metallurgical plants in the country - " Azovstal " and MMK of Ilyich, the Avdeevka Coke and Chemical Plant was damaged and shut down, and in the fall, the largest steel company ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih was partially damaged.

In the first months of the war, revenues from the value-added tax, the largest source of state budget revenues, halved. At the same time, defense spending accounted for 65% of all state budget spending. Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said that through a phased issuance of military bonds, the government decided to carry out state internal borrowings for up to 400 billion hryvnias.

According to forecasts, the Ukrainian economy will shrink by 35% in 2022. According to government estimates, Ukraine's GDP could be halved. At the end of 2021, Ukraine's GDP amounted to $200 billion, that is, losses could amount to about $100 billion.

Stabilization after the retreat of Russian troops from Kyiv

(April-October).

After the withdrawal of Russian troops from near Kyiv and the northern regions, the stabilization of the economy begins, and some of the citizens left and returned to Ukraine. As of mid-September, 12.5 million citizens left Ukraine, of which about 5 million returned to their homeland. The volume of exports of agricultural products in April increased by 2.9 times compared to March. Rail transportation grew by 238%. At the same time, the loss of territories, key enterprises, and logistics routes, as the forced issue of the hryvnia has already provoked a monthly state budget deficit. up to $5 billion

In April, Ukraine received about $2 billion in external funding, of which $719 million was grants. In total, this figure has been $5.4 billion since February, including $801 million in grants.

In May, Ukraine faced a shortage of fuel, which is associated with attacks by Russian troops on oil refineries, storage facilities, and transport infrastructure.

In July, there is a further devaluation of the hryvnia: the National Bank fixed the exchange rate in the region of 36.9 hryvnias per dollar until the end of the year (in exchange offices, the price fluctuates at the level of 39-41 hryvnia per dollar).

As one of the possibilities in Ukraine, they are discussing a variant of an agreement with Europe on the use of the frozen reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for the restoration of Ukraine - more than 330 billion dollars. In many ways, Ukraine is counting on strong international support - new billions in loans and assistance.

In the first three quarters of the year, exports of ferrous metals fell to $4 billion (-62%), ores to $2.8 billion (-54%). In January-November, the output of metallurgical products decreased by 70% compared to the same period last year.

Due to the mining of territories, logistical problems, and unclear export prospects as a result of blocking sea trade ports, Ukraine completed the sowing of spring crops at the level of 84% of the last year's area.

In Ukraine, it is necessary to clear about 1/6 of the territory, that is, 82.5 thousand square meters. km. This is about 14%, given that the total area of Ukraine is 603.7 thousand square meters. km. More than 8 billion euros will be needed for demining.

On July 22, a "grain deal" was concluded, according to various estimates, as a result of the work of the "grain corridor" at the beginning of November, Ukraine earned from 3 to 5 billion dollars.

In July, there was a reduction in the state budget deficit, but the government increases spending by UAH 270.2 billion. As a result, Ukraine needs to receive an additional $7.3 billion by the end of the year. In general, Ukraine will need from 3 to 4.5 billion dollars a month from international donors.

Since August, gross domestic VAT and import VAT receipts have remained stable. There are problems with the tax refund, which depends on the availability of funds in the treasury account.

Due to the rapid growth of military costs and falling tax revenues, the financial crisis in Ukraine is deepening and the need for additional financing of the country is growing. At the same time, Western partners continue to intensively provide financial assistance to Ukraine, which is enough to stabilize the situation, but not enough to restore the country or create the resources necessary to create a turning point in the war.

Energy shock. Attacking critical infrastructure. (October 2022 - present).

Since October 10, the Russian Federation has been implementing its strategy to destroy the critical infrastructure of Ukraine. So the country has already undergone 10 massive attacks using missiles and drones of Iranian origin. There is not a single thermal or hydroelectric power plant left in Ukraine that has not been shelled. About 50% of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure has already been significantly damaged. Also, after prolonged Russian attacks, it becomes more difficult to restore damaged infrastructure. What can cause the evacuation of the population from part of the territories in the winter. As a result, a very difficult situation with the electricity supply has formed in the country. There are interruptions in the supply of water, heat, and communications.

In this regard, the Dragon Capital investment company worsened its forecast for the fall of the Ukrainian economy in 2022 from 30% to 32%, and the ICU investment group - from 32% to 35%. The government of Ukraine says that a drop of up to 50% is possible. This fall will be the largest in the history of Ukraine.

As of November, Ukraine's infrastructure suffered a total damage of $135.9 billion.

caused the housing stock to increase by $2 billion to $52.5 billion. Currently, the share of the housing stock in the total amount of damage is 38.6%. According to the report, the amount of damage to industrial enterprises increased by $3 billion and amounted to $13 billion. The amount of damage to infrastructure increased to $35.6 billion, their share is 26.2% of the total. Of these, $26.6 billion is due to the direct destruction of roads, and another $4.4 billion in damage to Ukrzaliznytsia from the war. Energy infrastructure losses have grown to $6.8 billion.

Ukrainian officials estimate that Ukraine will need about $2 billion a month in additional subsidies due to massive rocket attacks on Russia. Taking into account the fact that the budget of Ukraine for 2023 includes $38 billion of external financial assistance, this is an additional $24 billion.

At the same time, regular blackouts, as well as periodic loss of heating, water, and communications, lead to the fact that fatigue and irritation accumulate in society. The continuation of this trend in the future will provoke additional migration of the population from Ukraine, which will also harm domestic consumption and the labor market.

In addition, Ukrainians who have gone abroad withdraw more money abroad than is now entering the country. According to the NBU report, in May-October 2022, the volume of money transfers from abroad to Ukraine amounted to $6.8 billion, and the withdrawal of funds amounted to $8.4 billion. The difference (negative balance) amounted to $1.6 billion, that is, almost twenty%. Before the start of the war, the transfer of funds to Ukraine from abroad (usually from migrant workers ) was one of the most important sources of foreign exchange in the country.

It is reported that inflation in November 2022. is 26.5% compared to the previous year and for the month +0.7%

• Since the beginning of the year, the following changes:

• Transport +30.7%

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages +25.9%

• Alcoholic beverages, tobacco products +16.9%

• Restaurants and hotels +15.5%

• household appliances and

• current housing maintenance 15.2%

• Education +14.5%

• Healthcare +14%

• Communication +10.7%

• Leisure and culture +10.5%

• Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels +5%

• Strange enough, but according to official statistics, "Clothes and Shoes" showed a drop: -3.2%.

For 11 months of 2022, consumer prices for goods and services in Ukraine increased by 25.7%, according to the State Statistics Service.

According to Openbudget, which analyzed revenues to the budgets of the regions for the first 10 months of the year. On average, revenues fell by -16% compared to January-October 2021.

TOP-5 areas with the most lost income:

Kherson: -52%

Zaporizhzhia: -33.3%

Dnepropetrovsk: -23.3%

Chernihiv: -21.7%

Transcarpathian: -20.8%

Revenues increased in only two areas:

Lviv region: +9%

Mykolaiv: +4%

Commentary - political expert Denis Gaevsky: “ There are regions, mainly in the western regions, whose incomes have increased due to immigrants and business relocation to these regions. In turn, the growth of military spending helped to increase revenues in the Mykolaiv region, and income taxes from military salaries are paid to local budgets. At the same time, active construction continues in the Transcarpathian region .”

In November, the deficit of the general fund of the state budget increased by UAH 163.3 billion, and in January-November exceeded UAH 807.5 billion. — Ministry of Finance. For comparison: the state budget deficit for 2021 amounted to UAH 167 billion.

At the same time, the total external debt at the end of October (since September, added 7.6% over the month) and amounted to $65.5 billion. At the end of 2021. external debt amounted to 57.1 billion dollars, that is, Ukraine's external debt added 14.6% (in dollar terms) during this time - this is the largest figure over the past 10 years. In general, the volume of public debt in Ukraine is approaching 80% of the GDP. The state's total debt as of November 1, 2022, amounted to $93.5 billion. Since the beginning of the war (in hryvnia equivalent), the debt has increased by 45% (internal - by 23%, external - by 63%).

Government borrowings to the general budget fund for 11 months amounted to UAH 1.1 trillion. or 77% of those planned for this period.

UAH 593.5 billion was attracted from the placement of government bonds to finance the budget.

UAH 541 billion was raised through the issuance of military government bonds, of which the NBU issued hryvnia for UAH 370 billion.

From external sources - another UAH 504.1 billion, in particular - UAH 237.3 billion (6.7 billion euros) of an EU loan under a new package of emergency macro-financial assistance, UAH 88.2 billion (2.0 billion SDRs) from the IMF and other loans.

The budget of Ukraine is 50% dependent on external financial assistance.

According to the State Property Fund, the real estate sales market fell by 78.4% during the war. From February 24 to December 12, Ukrainians sold 52.6 thousand properties. This is just a little more than 1/5 of the figures for the same period last year.

If we consider residential real estate, then its sales have decreased by 4.6 times: 47 thousand of apartments and houses have been sold since the beginning of the war. Another 5.6 thousand objects of non-residential real estate.

Consequences for the economy.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the damage caused by the Russian Federation to Ukraine is estimated at 600 billion euros. Over 20,000 civilians and more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers (killed and wounded) have already suffered as a result of Russian aggression. The President of Ukraine declares that it will take $1 trillion to restore the country.

At the end of 2022, inflation in Ukraine will be about 30%.

The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the NBU exceeded the pre-war level. As of the morning of February 24, they amounted to $27.4 billion, and as of December 1 - about $28 billion. The key factor was the flow of international assistance.

According to the Ministry of Economy, in December there were 2.6 million unemployed people in Ukraine. The forecast for 2023 is an increase of 2.8 million people. True, this is half as much as the latest estimates of the International Labor Organization: in May, the ILO reported about 5 million unemployed in Ukraine.

Nominal wages in Ukraine decreased by 5% compared to January 2022. With current inflation, this means a significant reduction in wages in real terms by 21%

The budget of Ukraine is largely dependent on international revenues (about half of the budget revenues), on which critical budget expenditures mainly depend: payments to state employees, pensioners, migrants, and recipients of subsidies, etc.

As of mid-December, total international assistance to Ukraine in 2022 amounted to $28 billion. By the end of the year, according to the head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, the figure could grow to $31 billion. This is still less than the promised amount ($36 billion) but helped to cover 60% of all additional funding received by the Ukrainian budget during the year.

(The dynamics of expenses and financial receipts to the budget for half a year are shown in the chart). The data is summarized from the publications of the Telegram channel by the People's Deputy of Ukraine, First Deputy Chairman of the Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy Yaroslav Zheleznyak.)

At the same time, international aid, taking into account the intensity of its receipt, may not be enough to cover critical budget expenditures from 3 to 5 billion dollars per month. All internal revenues (customs, taxes, etc.) to the budget are directed to military needs. Financing the state budget at the expense of external revenues leads to a significant increase in public debt. So, according to the new draft Budget of Ukraine for 2023, the total debt of Ukraine will increase by 82% and amount to UAH 6.4 trillion. This is more than the level of the country's planned GDP for 2023. - UAH 6.28 trillion Now (as of October 31, 2022) the public debt is 3.77 trillion. UAH

Most of Ukraine's export earnings are food products - $ 21 billion. Therefore, to replenish the Ukrainian budget, it is extremely important to continue the functioning of the “grain deal”.

According to the State Customs Service, in January-November 2022, the trade turnover in Ukraine amounted to $90.1 billion. Over 11 months, goods worth $49.4 billion were imported to Ukraine, and products worth $40.7 billion were exported. Ukrainian markets are increasingly beginning to focus on countries in Europe. Its main trading partner of Ukraine is now Poland (1st place in exports and 2nd in imports). Turkey, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and the Czech Republic remain major buyers of Ukrainian goods. The share of Ukrainian export deliveries to such countries as Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Moldova increased.

China has ceased to be the main trading partner for Ukraine's exports but continues to rank first in imports (that is, Ukraine began to earn less, remaining a market for products for China). On the one hand, a violation of the logistics routes for the supply of products played a role here, but a political motive is not excluded, since China is an important partner of the Russian Federation. In general, it is noteworthy that trade with the Russian Federation (sixth place in terms of imports), although it has significantly decreased, has not been completely stopped. Officially, Ukraine announced a complete cessation of trade with the aggressor state at the beginning of April 2022.

In general, it is noteworthy that trade with the Russian Federation (sixth place in terms of imports), although it has significantly decreased, has not been completely stopped. Officially, Ukraine announced a complete cessation of trade with the aggressor state at the beginning of April 2022.

In November, Verkhovna Rada adopted the draft budget for 2023.

All spending for the next year is planned at UAH 2.58 trillion, of which UAH 1.141 trillion is for defense. Revenues ( UAH 1.329 trillion ) will cover the defense budget, but the deficit will be 1.251 trillion.

Expenses for the next year are planned at the level of UAH 2.58 trillion.

• Most of the spending will go to the defense of the country - 43%

• Social security - 17%

• Payment of debts - 12%

• Medicine - 7%

• Education - 6%

• For the restoration of the country - 2%

• Other - 13%

At the same time, the Budget-2023 is planned to take into account - UAH 1.32 trillion of income.

• 51% is domestic revenue.

• 46% - budget revenues will come from external assistance.

• 3% - internal loans (bonds)

• As part of the macro forecast, the economy next year will grow by (3.2% instead of 4.6%)

• inflation may reach (28% instead of 30%)

• the cost of living will be - 2589 UAH.

• the minimum wage will be - 6700 UAH.

• the minimum pension will be - 2093 UAH.

• The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in 2023 is projected to fluctuate around UAH 42.2 /$.

At the end of 2023, it will amount to 45.8 UAH /$ ( instead of 50 UAH/ $, as it was in the first reading).

• The priority of budget financing remains security and defense - more than 1.141 trillion UAH, which is more than 18% of GDP.

• UAH 35.5 billion is also envisaged. to the Fund for the Elimination of the Consequences of Armed Aggression.

• The state budget deficit next year will be more than 20% of GDP - UAH 1.29 trillion.

• It is planned to attract about - 38 billion dollars of foreign aid to the budget.

At the same time, taking into account the increased shelling of energy infrastructure, Ukraine needs an additional $2 billion per month or $24 billion per year.

Due to the ongoing hostilities, the economic situation in Ukraine is deteriorating: an increase in the budget deficit, an increase in public debt, and a decrease in foreign exchange reserves and export earnings. All these factors lead to a further increase in inflation, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and also caused the default of the state company Naftogaz of Ukraine (along with political factors). In general, the country's economy is dependent on the financing of international partners.

One of the most significant problems of the Ukrainian budget remains the insufficiency and inconsistency of financial assistance from foreign donors. When receiving less external assistance, the NBU is forced to carry out an unplanned issue of the hryvnia. The emission of the hryvnia helps to avoid a general collapse of the economy but will lead to inflation and devaluation of the hryvnia, which in turn will reduce the standard of living of citizens. Until the end of 2022, the emission will amount to UAH 400 billion, as was provided for in this year's Budget.

the situation in the world economy.

Taking into account the fact that the world economy in 2021 (up to 6%) rose to $94 trillion.  For 2022, the forecast for the average growth rate of the global economy according to the IMF is 3.2%, and for the next year, it is projected to be reduced by 0.2% to 2.7%. The global inflation rate will increase by 2%.

• In Ukraine, GDP will fall by (-35%) this year, data for next year is not yet available.

• In 2022, the economy in the Russian Federation will shrink by (-3.4%)

• In Belarus by (-7%)

• Europe to maintain positive GDP growth in 2022

• But in the next 2023, the IMF predicts a recession in Germany ( -0.3%), Italy (-0.2%) Sweden (-0.1%)

In 2022, all the largest US IT companies collapsed on a large scale. From 26 to 65 percent, the stock price of such giants as Meta (these are Instagram and Facebook, as well as the Whatsapp messenger ), Amazon, Alphabet (Google and everything related to it), NASDAQ, and Apple collapsed.

Meta collapsed the most, losing 65% over the past year. Apple fell the least - by 26%. Google lost its position by 38%. Of the related industries, Elon Musk's Tesla, which lost 65% of its share liquidity, was the hardest hit.

As the Washington Post writes, tech giants have grown at a "breakneck pace" over the past decade (and that growth has only accelerated during the pandemic). And now they have begun to suspend hiring and massive layoffs of employees.

The situation around Ukraine.

Sanctions against the Russian Federation.

The vast majority of the world's states (almost all the states of Europe, Latin, and North America, as well as several countries in Southeast Asia) condemned Russia's actions and called on it to withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine. Several states (Venezuela, Myanmar, Nicaragua, Syria, and North Korea) supported Russia and accused NATO of provoking the invasion. Some states, in particular, China, India, South Africa, and several others states have taken a neutral position.

The imposed sanctions include large-scale restrictions on the Russian financial system (including the Central Bank and major banks), the activities of several Russian companies and individual sectors of the economy, as well as the closure of airspace and seaports, personal sanctions against the Russian leadership, major entrepreneurs, and, in some cases, members of their families . . After the start of the war, about 42% of foreign companies left the Russian market. The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Federation were frozen in the amount of about - 330 billion dollars. In total, since the beginning of the year, 9 packages of sanctions have been introduced against the Russian Federation, the 1st - for recognizing the so-called. "LDNR", the subsequent ones - for the invasion of Ukraine. In terms of the number of restrictions imposed, the Russian Federation bypassed Iran, Syria, and North Korea. Restrictive measures for aiding Russia are also imposed on Belarus

On March 2, 2022, the resolution " Aggression against Ukraine " in the UN General Assembly was supported by 141 countries, 35 states abstained, and five delegations - Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Syria, and Eritrea - voted against it.

On March 8, US President Joe Biden announced a ban on the supply of oil, gas, and coal from Russia. The United States also banned its citizens from making new investments in the Russian energy sector and from financing foreign companies making such investments. On April 9, the US enacted a bill to ban the import of energy resources from Russia, including oil, coal, and natural gas. The UK will completely stop importing Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022.

In April, the UN General Assembly suspended Russia's participation in the Council of the Human Rights Organization. The reason was the tragic events in the city of Bucha, Kyiv region.

The European Parliament calls for a complete embargo on Russian oil, gas, coal, and nuclear fuel, which will deprive the Russian Federation of more than 4% of its GDP. The fifth package of sanctions against Russia does not contain an energy embargo and will not have a tangible impact on the Russian economy (damage of less than 1%).

The issue of the embargo on Russian energy carriers remains unresolved. While the US has already announced a complete ban on the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal. Western European countries remain the largest buyers of Russian energy resources. The European Union is faced with internal disputes over an oil embargo against Russia, and the topic of imposing restrictions on Russian energy imports threatens to split the EU. Russia's economic turn towards India and China is observed.

July Western countries review sanctions against the Russian Federation to increase their effectiveness. And those sanctions that cause damage to the West to a greater extent are canceled or modified. Sanctions, which hit the Russian Federation to a greater extent, remain and are intensifying. This process, in turn, causes concern in Ukraine.

August. Turkey is creating an international precedent for dealing with the Russian Federation and pursuing its national interests. Turkey not only did not follow the path of a collective sanctions policy but also defiantly maintains relations with Moscow - it is turning into a trade hub between the West and the Russian Federation, the main mediator in negotiations. In Ukraine, they are concerned that Turkey could become one of Russia's main partners in circumventing sanctions.

US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan leads to a deterioration in US-China relations. But any direct military clash between China and the United States is unlikely due to the deep financial and economic interdependence of the parties. But China may increase its involvement in hybrid forms of confrontation with the US.

October. OPEC's decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day at once, which was promoted by Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation, means that oil prices will continue to stay at a high level, and may even rise.

In October, Russia's revenue from fossil fuel exports fell to its lowest level since the start of the war in Ukraine. Russia's estimated total revenue from fossil fuel exports in October was 21 billion euros, of which 7.5 billion euros was exported to the EU, the lowest share since the start of the war. Total revenue fell 7% month-on-month, with declines across all commodities other than LNG widening by about 9% month-on-month. Revenues from exports to the EU fell by -14%, with the largest decline in crude oil by 19%.

A new shadow route for Russian oil to the EU is opening up through Turkey, where more and more Russian crude oil is being refined as the country ramps up exports of oil products to the EU and the US. The EU ban on the import of oil products from Russia comes into force only on February 5. The export of Turkish oil products arriving at EU and US ports increased by 85% in September-October compared to July and August.

On the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, four fuel leaks were discovered at once in the open sea. Regardless of who committed sabotage on the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the consequences of this incident will be a reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe (already reduced) and an increase in energy prices, a drop in Russian budget revenues, an acceleration in the abandonment of Russian energy sources and occupation of the market by other suppliers, correction of programs for the transition to green energy, and so on. Problems with gas in Europe will be exacerbated against the background of the fact that Gazprom can completely stop the transit of gas from Ukraine to Europe. Depending on the conclusions about the causes of the accident, this situation may cause a new round of political and military escalation between the Russian Federation and the United States with allies, or lead to an unexpected political turn.

In November, the European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Russia as a sponsor of terrorism. In general, the resolution of the European Parliament will not yet have any legal consequences for Russia. Since the European Union does not have a legal basis for recognizing a third country as a state that supports terrorism. And there are also no documents that would regulate sanctions against a state sponsoring terrorism or somehow describe the rules for interaction with such countries. In the future, the issue of recognizing the Russian Federation as a sponsor of terrorism will also be raised in the United States and individual EU and NATO countries. Which, in turn, will complicate the diplomatic relations of Western countries with the Russian Federation. And, perhaps, it will serve as another legal reason for the confiscation of Russian frozen assets (about $330 billion ).

On December 5, 2022, the EU oil sanctions against the Russian Federation came into force. By the decision of the Council of the European Union, a price limit for Russian oil has been introduced - $60 per barrel, and the sea transportation of Russian oil to third countries is prohibited. Earlier, Hungary made sure that nuclear energy and pipeline oil were excluded from sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the Russian Federation refuses to supply within the framework of the "ceiling", which, at first glance, looks quite loyal. In this case, an undesirable consequence for Moscow could be other countries that have so far refrained from joining the "ceiling", in particular, the largest consumers of Russian oil - India and China. According to the Ukrainian authorities, with an oil price of $60, Russia will earn up to $100 billion a year from oil and gas exports. The total export of key energy commodities in 2021 amounted to $243.8 billion (export of oil amounted to 111.0 billion dollars).

The import ban and price controls have successfully driven down the price of Russian crude oil. Due to the inability to export oil to Europe, the volume of its exports from Russian ports in the first full week after the introduction of restrictions decreased by 56% compared to the previous week. Prices for Urals oil ($ 58- $ 53 a barrel) continue to fall, indicating that it is working as intended, reducing Russia's revenue to finance the war in Ukraine.

In general, the sanctions of the allied countries still undermine the Russian economy and reduce its profit from the oil and gas market. So the Russian Federation in November received less than 90.2 billion rubles of oil and gas revenues compared to the level of expectations. This is significantly more than the previous month, in October, only 7.5 billion rubles (465 million dollars) were short-received.

According to various estimates by Western experts, the fall in Russian GDP by the end of 2022 will be from 7% to 11%. The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation presented its forecast, according to which the GDP of the Russian Federation in 2022 will decrease by 7.8%, and in 2023 - by 0.7% in. Economic growth of 3.2% is expected in 2024.

Calculated by Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Austrian Institute for Economic Research, long-term continuous sanctions could lead to an annual reduction in Russian GDP by 9.71%. At the same time, the total economy of the Western allies will shrink by only 0.17% per year (some countries will suffer more, for example, Lithuania: -2.5% per year).

Allied countries continue to work out the mechanism of sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. In particular, the theme of the tribunal continues to be developed. What is true is rather being done with the aim of putting pressure on the Russian Federation in order to soften its position in order to resume the negotiation process.

On December 7, a US Senate committee approved a resolution that recognizes Russia's actions against the Ukrainian people as genocide. This decision, as well as the resolution of the European Parliament recognizing the Russian Federation as a sponsor of terrorism, will not yet have any legal consequences for Russia, but is an important instrument of pressure on the Russian Federation, and can serve as another legal reason for the formation of a legal basis for the confiscation of Russian frozen assets (about 330 billion dollars ). Also, along with the initiative on the tribunal, this can be another way of putting pressure on the Russian Federation to soften its negotiating position on a possible peace treaty or truce.

Financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

At the beginning of the war, there is a consolidation of a huge anti-Russian front, which goes far beyond those who previously imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation. More than 20 countries are helping Ukraine today militarily. More than 60 provide various kinds of financial and humanitarian assistance. Ukrainian weaponry includes both outdated Soviet and modern Western systems. The former include howitzers, multiple rocket launchers, and short-range ballistic missiles. The latter include large batches of Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and Bayraktar drones.

Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the US Congress. The President once again called for closing the sky over Ukraine, as well as closing American ports for Russian goods, and taking other measures to contain Russia. In particular, to transfer air defense systems.

In the first month of the war, only the United States, Estonia, and Poland began to supply weapons to Ukraine. In particular, in March, the US Senate approved a $13.6 billion package of military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and its European allies. And on March 12, US President Joe Biden authorized the State Department to provide Ukraine with additional military assistance in the amount of up to $200 million. The funds will be used to purchase weapons and other military needs. In April, the European Union approved further military assistance to Ukraine totaling $1.63 billion.

According to the US military leadership on April 15, 2022, Western countries supplied Ukraine with 60,000 anti-tank missiles and 25,000 man-portable air defense systems. In the first month of the war, only the United States, Estonia, and Poland began to supply weapons to Ukraine.

April- May A cardinal increase in assistance to Ukraine from the US, NATO, and the EU is a course toward the military defeat of the Russian Federation.

For Ukraine, significant progress has been made in the past month regarding the supply of weapons, in the United States the Lend-Lease Act has been passed, and now the transfer of weapons will be faster due to the reduction of bureaucratic procedures.

In mid-May, the US President signed the Lend-Lease program for Ukraine adopted by Congress, which provides for the provision of assistance to Ukraine for $40 billion.

An anti-Russian military command is being formed in Ramstein, where restrictions on the supply of weapons to Ukraine have been lifted.

The country will also receive the necessary funding from the IMF, the G7, and individual countries in the amount of $60 billion per year (there will be no default). In fact, by the end of the year, Ukraine will receive 31 billion dollars (at the beginning of December, 28 billion dollars).

The pressure of Western countries on the Russian Federation continues to rise. In particular, the sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation is increasing. But the EU cannot yet come to a consensus on an embargo on gas and oil supplies from Russia. Some EU countries are gradually moving to a new formula for paying for Russian gas. The EU is preparing the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, concerning oil supplies and the banking sector.

Western partners do not exclude the scenario of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia.

In May, the European Commission announced that it could adopt a plan to restore Ukraine for hundreds of billions of euros and is already providing the country with $9 billion in aid.

As a result of an online meeting of the heads of military departments of more than 40 states, about 20 countries announced new military assistance packages for Ukraine. In particular, Denmark will transfer Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Ukraine to unblock Ukrainian ports, hitting Russian ships at distant approaches. At the same time, Ukraine criticizes the pace of arms supply, which is insufficient to effectively repel the Russian offensive in the Donbas.

In July, the European Commission began to prepare a legislative framework for the transfer of frozen Russian assets and assets of businessmen from Russia for the restoration of Ukraine. At present, it is the frozen assets of the Russian Federation that are considered a real source of financing for the restoration of Ukraine. EU assistance for the reconstruction of Ukraine after the war may exceed 500 billion euros. But the project itself to restore Ukraine can be implemented only after the end of the war and is currently somewhat out of touch with reality.

In July, US Congresswoman V. Spartz demanded the resignation of the head of OP A. Yermak and an audit of arms supplies to Ukraine, her statements may complicate the process of approving new aid packages to Ukraine. The West is already considering the possibility of creating a kind of control system for weapons supplied to Ukraine. In response to the accusations, on the initiative of the head of the Office of President Andriy Yermak, a commission was created in the parliament to control the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine.

Beginning of August. The dynamics of arms transfers by Western countries demonstrate that differences in positions remain between the US and European countries. While the US, Poland, Great Britain, and the Baltic countries are delivering weapons at a faster pace, Germany, France, and other countries either delay these deliveries or distance themselves from them. Most likely, Europe is trying to avoid a new round of escalation by the Russian Federation. In particular, the strike on the annexed Crimea can serve as a pretext. What the Ukrainian authorities have announced more than once when they have "technical capabilities." But in general, the volume of arms supplies and funding is significant and significantly affects the situation at the front and maintains the controllability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but they are not enough to turn the tide in the war.

In August, the United States approved a new $2.8 billion military aid package for Ukraine. The total aid package provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is the largest to date. But some of that money will go towards funding contracts for munitions and equipment that may not hit the battlefield for a year or two.

On August 23, Ukraine hosted the second Crimean Platform Summit. Due to martial law, the discussion took place online. In 2022, representatives of more than 60 countries and international organizations, as well as NATO Secretary General Jens, confirmed their participation in the event Stoltenberg. Polish President Andrzej Duda arrived in Kyiv to personally attend the summit.

In November The White House asked Congress for an additional $37.7 billion in aid to Ukraine. The funds are planned to be used for defense equipment, humanitarian aid, and support for nuclear security.

Representatives of the US Republican Party are increasingly demanding control over the spending of large funds allocated to Ukraine. All this is happening against the backdrop of a shortage of weapons and ammunition in NATO countries publicly announced by the Western media. This can be seen as a public formation of explanations for why Ukraine may receive less of it in the future. And this can create significant difficulties for the new counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In general, the situation at the front largely depends on the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the allied countries.

In July 2022, the British-led Operation Interflex was launched, the purpose of which was to train the Armed Forces of Ukraine. By mid-September, the Ukrainian authorities announced that 5,000 soldiers had already undergone such training.

The Pentagon said that since the beginning of the war, they have already provided Ukraine with military assistance in the amount of more than $20 billion.

In December, the US Congress received a draft budget for 2023, which includes almost $45 billion in aid to Ukraine.

In general, the total amount of declared assistance to Ukraine is about 113 billion euros (from January 24 to November 20 ), according to Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The EU has overtaken the US and is becoming Ukraine's largest donor. At the same time, aid from the EU now exceeds aid from the US. The total amount of EU military, financial and humanitarian assistance is almost - 52 billion euros. The amount of US liabilities is slightly less - 48 billion euros. The rest of the countries account for about -13.5 billion euros. At the same time, it should be understood that the declared assistance and the actually disbursed assistance are significantly different. The EU now outnumbers the US in declared aid. The main reason for the change in leadership is the 18 billion euro macro-financial assistance package for Ukraine agreed upon by the EU for 2023 (Hungary is currently blocking this decision).

According to the NBU, the amount of declared financial assistance from Western partners in December amounted to $120 billion.

$28 billion in aid from international partners. Until the end of the year, according to the head of the NBU, Andriy Pyshny, the figure could grow to $31 billion. 42% of these revenues are the grants. This is still less than the promised amount ($36 billion) but helped cover 60% of all additional funding received by the Ukrainian budget during the year. This number will increase in 2023. The initial plan to attract international assistance is about $38 billion to cover the budget deficit next year. At the same time, taking into account the increased shelling of energy infrastructure, Ukraine needs an additional $2 billion per month or $24 billion per year. The planned assistance to Ukraine in 2023 is $45 billion from the United States and the approval of a new assistance package from the European Union in the amount of €18 billion (which Ukraine will be given 35 years to repay starting from 2033).

The government of Ukraine called the amount of funding for the army during a full-scale invasion. So since February 24, the government has allocated over UAH 1.2 trillion to finance the army and the security sector. Of these, UAH 770 billion was spent on military salaries. Another 176.2 billion is directed to the modernization and purchase of equipment and weapons. This is more than the state has spent over the past 10 years.

It is possible that in the future the supply of weapons to Ukraine from Western countries may slow down. In the United States, apparently, there will still be an audit of weapons sent to Ukraine, which in turn will slow down their deliveries. The White House said it agreed with the proposals of the Republicans to hold it. At the same time, there are already statements in the EU about the depletion of weapons stocks, which may adversely affect supplies to Ukraine.

In December US President D. Biden confirmed that Ukraine will receive Patriot systems from the US. Also on the eve of V. Zelensky's visit to the United States, the State Department official confirmed the 1.8 billion package of assistance to Ukraine - which for the first time will include the Patriot air defense system in the amount of one battery.

In general, regarding new arms deliveries, we can say that they will not significantly change the current situation. Firstly, it is not yet clear when the Patriot air defense systems will appear on the territory of Ukraine, and the US military will have to train the Ukrainians in their use, which may take a significant amount of time. In addition, one Patriot installation is rather a symbolic instrument of pressure on the Russian Federation (Ukraine needs at least about 15 such installations). In addition, so far the United States and Ukraine have not agreed on a larger share of the declared necessary weapons. There are no modern aviation and armored vehicles.

The first time since February 24, the United States announced that it could train the Armed Forces of Ukraine on its territory. It's about preparing the military for the operation of the Patriot. A military base in Oklahoma is being considered as a location. Previously, the US military trained the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use M777 howitzers and Himars MLRS at EU and UK bases.

Comment - Candidate of Historical Sciences Sergii Tolstov: “ War is asymmetric. Without Western help, Ukraine cannot win the war. The situation in the country is very dependent on external factors and independent variables that we could clearly rely on in peace conditions, such as economic potential, the structure of the economy, and the number and condition of the armed forces, they become dependent variables during the war. Therefore, the entire prospect and course of a military conflict become the result of a correlation of several dependent variables, which, unfortunately, are not always and are not quite effectively determined by our Western partners today.

Nobody prevented the United States from providing Ukraine with at least the minimum number of air defense systems and Patriot, which they have now promised in the amount of 1 (they are already in service in 16 countries). That is, it turns out such a dynamics of dependent variables when the country's economy is destroyed, strikes are made on critical infrastructure, and the possibility of effective protection of this infrastructure is postponed indefinitely. »

On December 21, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky arrived in Washington on a visit. One of the main reasons why the White House invited V. Zelensky to the United States is the desire to support their efforts to further finance the Ukrainian case. This is especially important against the backdrop of the conditions put forward by the claims of the Republican Party, which will control the House of Representatives from the new year. In fact, D. Biden invited V. Zelensky to put pressure on Congress, which is invited to allocate more than $45 billion for military needs in Ukraine.

Grain deal.

Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat, corn, and sunflower oil to the world markets. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine together export 29% of world wheat supplies and 75% of world exports of sunflower oil. After the start of a full-scale invasion, Ukrainian seaports were blocked. As a result, wheat prices rose 74% to their highest level since 2008. In turn, rising wheat prices have raised tensions in developing countries that are heavily dependent on food exports from Russia and Ukraine, and provoked fears of social unrest. Since the beginning of the war, about 20 million tons of agricultural products have been blocked in Ukraine.

On July 22, 2022, in Istanbul, Ukraine and Russia agreed to unblock the Black Sea ports. Turkey and the UN acted as intermediaries in the deal - the Russian Federation and Ukraine signed agreements with them. The signatures were put by the Minister of Infrastructure of Ukraine Oleksandr Kubrakov, the Minister of Defense of Russia Sergei Shoigu, the Minister of Defense of Turkey Hulusi Akar, and the UN Secretary-General Antóniou Guterres.

So on August 1, 2022, the first ship with Ukrainian grain left the port of Odesa. The term of the transaction was determined for a period of 120 days. The deblockade of Ukrainian ports should approximately bring the country up to $1 billion in additional export earnings per month.

On October 29, after a drone attack on ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol, Russia announced that it was suspending its participation in the "grain deal" indefinitely. What the Russian leadership notified the UN and Turkey. Ukraine called on Western countries and Turkey to influence Moscow. President V. Zelensky said that Moscow had long intended to block grain exports. NATO Allies are calling on Russia to reconsider its decision and urgently reopen the grain deal with Ukraine to ensure that food reaches those who need it most. It is known that the Russian leadership as a condition requires the partial lifting of sanctions, in particular, in relation to Russian shipping and insurance companies. The Russian Federation is also seeking the possibility of exporting agricultural products from the territories seized from Ukraine.

On November 2, after negotiations with Turkey and the UN, Russia agreed to resume participation in the "grain deal".

On November 17, the agreement on the export of grain from Ukraine was extended for another 120 days. The consent of the Russian Federation to the extension of the grain agreement may be associated both with the partial lifting of sanctions and with the special participation of Turkey in this process. It is obvious that Turkey is the main beneficiary of the grain deal, and is now a "grain hub" for the sale of grain to third-world countries, it is likely that the Russian Federation also has its part of the "shadow" benefit in this process. The extension of the "grain agreement" also plays in favor of the fact that in the near future the Russian Federation will not attempt to capture the city of Mykolaiv or the city of Odesa.

It is important that the functioning of the "grain deal" from August to the end of November allowed Ukraine to export virtually the entire volume of the old crop. Ports remain the main way to export agricultural products from Ukraine. From August to the end of November, more than 22 million tons of agricultural products were exported from Ukraine,

• Of these, 15.2 million tons (more than 500 vessels) were exported through ports.

• And about - 7 million tons were exported by other means of transport.

In the 2021-2022 marketing year (from July 1 to June 30), as of February 21, 42.6 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine. By the end of the marketing year (until June 1, 2022), 48.5 million tons of grain were exported. That is, before the start of the grain deal, less than 6 million tons were exported. It is interesting that during the marketing year of the war 2021-2022. (48.5 million tons) more grain was exported than in the previous so-called. "covid" 2020 - -2021 - 44.9 million tons.

Domestic consumption of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine is estimated at 20-22 million tons. Until the summer, Ukraine needs to send about 45 million tons of grain for export. Therefore, Ukraine they are in favor of an indefinite continuation of the "grain deal" and of an increase in the number of ports operating for the export of grain (Mykolaiv ports), as well as for a possible expansion of the range of supplies. What is extremely important, in order to increase financial revenues from exports to the country's budget, which can be tens of billions of dollars. According to various estimates, as a result of the work of the "grain corridor" at the beginning of November, Ukraine earned from 3 to 5 billion dollars.

In general, the deal regarding the export of food from Ukrainian ports showed that in the event of an international consensus, the parties (Western countries, Ukraine, and Russia) are able to negotiate. In addition, a precedent has been demonstrated for the lifting of sanctions and a willingness to compromise when it comes to critical issues of the global economy and political stabilization of the situation. Turkey has made great efforts and strengthened its role as the main mediator in the Ukrainian-Russian settlement.

This year, Ukraine received the status of a candidate for the EU.

Ukraine officially applied for EU membership On February 28, 2022, a day earlier, a number of European heads of state expressed support for integration with Ukraine.

On March 1, 2022, the European Parliament recommended granting Ukraine the status of an EU candidate country.

On June 17, 2022, the European Commission supported the resolution on granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership.

On June 23, the European Parliament overwhelmingly adopted a resolution in support of Ukraine's EU candidate status, and the Council of the European Union awarded Ukraine the EU candidate status.

In December, Ukraine formally completed the fulfillment of obligations on candidacy for EU membership, which was once again used to strengthen the position of the Office of the President of Ukraine in the political system. Thus, the Verkhovna Rada adopted a law that changes the procedure for selecting judges of the Constitutional Court, the law on media, illicit enrichment, and the law on national minorities - one of the main requirements for Ukraine's candidacy in the European Union. But in general, it is worth noting that, in part, these laws become a tool for expanding powers and strengthening the current government. Thus, the President's team completes the process of establishing control over the media environment, solves its problems in the field of the judiciary, and strengthens control over the judicial system, which opens the way to pro-presidential political reform.

Additional Findings: Social Transformations

The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that the global military-strategic competition is transforming into a full-fledged cold war, which is traditionally characterized by separate hot regions on the periphery between the blocks. Unfortunately, Ukraine has become one of these battlefields today. It turned out to be the extreme border of the Western world on the border with the Eastern world. And the country today bears all the catastrophic costs of this process.

In the international dimension, there is sprawling into two global blocs is the trend of the next decade. On the American-European axis and the Eurasian bloc. Between them, there is a struggle and competition. Within these blocs, relative economic freedom, a certain respect, and rules of the political game are preserved, but they are becoming less and less. Between the blocs, political trust and free trade are degrading and becoming politically conditioned.

Initially, the goal of the Russian invasion was to create a security crisis in Europe, which would force the US to sit down at the negotiating table with the Russian Federation and share spheres of influence (new Yalta agreements), but this plan ultimately failed. But the plan for inflicting a quick defeat on the Russian Federation, which would destabilize it from the inside, has also not been implemented. Mainly due to the positions of Russia's partners (explicit or hidden) in the Eurasian bloc, which to some extent supported and insured the Russian economy and political system by expanding cooperation with it. The growth of trade with China, India, and Turkey is another example of this.

At the same time, both sides are trying to maintain strategic stability, no one is interested in a nuclear war. Both sides and the American-European and Eurasian axis are constantly in dialogue with each other.

As for the internal situation in the country. A change in the socio-economic structure is characterized by the complete destruction of the southeastern industrial cluster. Industry and mechanical engineering, according to various estimates, previously accounted for 20% to 50% of the country's economy, but now they occupy 10-15%. There is a transition to an agrarian-raw material model, which operates mainly in the service sector. There is a "death" of the middle class through emigration and a drop in the income of those who remain. Gained momentum processes "nationalization" of the economy. If in 2021 the public sector accounted for about 10% of the economy, today it is about 50%, and in some areas of the economy, it reaches 60-70% in the economy. There is a rapid increase in debt. And the state becomes the main employer (70%), due to the fall of the private sector, which before the war competed with the state in this regard. Now the state provides work in the army, law enforcement agencies, medicine, education, civil service, etc.

started in the country and changed the urban pattern. Due to the destruction and hostilities, there is mass emigration from the most populated, urbanized regions of the southeast of Ukraine. De - urbanization is taking place - the outflow of the population from Ukraine and at the same time from cities to small towns. In winter, this outflow is exacerbated by the energy crisis following the Russian missile attacks. It has become more difficult to provide basic social services in cities. Before the war, about 60% of the population lived in cities; presumably, after its end, less than half of the country's population will live in cities.

Probably increased mortality. Official statistics are closed, but if before the war the average annual mortality was in the range of 400-700 thousand people, now we can assume that now it is at least 30-50 % more, not counting military losses. This is mainly due to the decline in the standard of living and the quality of medical care.

About 7-8 million citizens are now abroad. As a result of emigration, Ukraine has lost up to a third of its citizens, and about 40% are internally displaced persons. In the future, this situation will significantly affect the economy of the country as a whole.

There has been a change in the political model of governance in Ukraine. At the same time, two platforms that competed with each other were broken - the competitive oligarchic model and the Western liberal one. Today, a model is being formed in Ukraine - something between a directory and a hetmanate. This is a leadership model, where power will be nominally consolidated in the hands of one person - the supreme commander in chief, but in reality in the hands of his directorate. We are also witnessing the complete destruction of the parliamentary-presidential model of government, which was a reflection of oligarchic competition. Today, in fact, we have already formed a pure presidential model of governance, which should also be fixed in the Constitution. Assign to the president the function of the prime minister as in the United States, and leave the function of lawmaking and, possibly, regional representation to the parliament. We see the consolidation of all powers of government, from the Constitutional Court of the Government, and Parliament to local governments.

Against this background, the authority of President V. Zelensky as a politician is growing, the war was the result of the unification of Ukrainians "around the flag". If before the war his ratings were about 24% -25%, "Servants of the People" -18%, now the President's rating is in the range of 70% - 80%, and his party - 40% -50%.

In general, there is a situational unification of Ukrainians around state symbols, starting with local governments, trust in the main institutions of power (the President, the government, the Verkhovna Rada), the Armed Forces of Ukraine, volunteers, etc. is growing . ”, which uses power quite effectively today.

The process of religious unification begins, which can form crises in society.

It is also important that this year Ukraine received the status of an EU candidate, which the country could hardly count on before the war. At the international level, a global brand " Ukraine", can be politically and economically “ monetized ” in the post-war processes of reconstruction of the country.

Positive trends.

The undoubted merit of the President's team was the preservation of government control over the state, its financial system, economy and social sphere. Under the conditions of the catastrophic Russian invasion, precisely with the aim of destroying the state of Ukraine as a structure, the Ukrainian leadership managed not to lose the main state functions: manageability of the armed forces and the state apparatus, social obligations were fulfilled by the state and all payments continued, despite the fact that the national currency devalued, also the control and integrity of the banking system of the public sector was fully preserved; by the end of the year, Ukraine avoided an increase in housing and communal services tariffs for the population.

 

Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya , Andrii Timchenko

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics