Peace plans for Ukraine: initiators, essence, comparisons, and perspectives (11 plans for peace and/or war)

With a high probability that after the completion of the main phase of the current Ukrainian counter-offensive in Ukraine (November-December 2023) and in the world, a high diplomatic and negotiating season will begin regarding the future of war and peace. It is far from certain that it will succeed in the form of a peaceful settlement, but the motivation of many countries and international organizations to make their proposals for reputational positioning, or the prevention of political, economic, and military crises that arise from these countries in connection with the Russian-Ukrainian war is obvious.

Even today, several dozen ideas and approaches (we analyzed 11) to a peaceful settlement have been voiced in the international arena, which we, for the first time, tried to systematize, and analyze in comparative analysis and tabular form (see below) and consider the potential for their implementation in the future.

In general, the participants and mediators of potential peace negotiations, based on the method of settlement, can be divided into 4 main groups:

1. First led by China (which includes Turkey, the Vatican City, and the countries of the Global South), although they generate different peace initiatives in technical details, they jointly insist on an immediate cessation of hostilities and the resumption of negotiations. At the same time, such a position may imply the actual (but not legal) loss by Ukraine of part of its territories and the freezing of the conflict. Also, these countries are in favor of forming a new geopolitical balance and reducing the role of the United States and its allies in the world.

2. The second group (Ukraine, the USA, and European countries) adheres to the position on the need to de-occupy all the occupied territories of the Russian Federation and only after that it is possible to start official and productive negotiations with the Russian Federation. Ukraine is advancing its agenda and seeks to gain additional support from China, the Vatican, and the countries of the Global South, promoting the "Peace Plan - 10 steps of V. Zelensky".

3. The third group is conservative and nationalist (mainly oppositional) elites in the USA, NATO, and the EU (D. Trump, V. Orban, and others) advocating the formation of a new balance with the Russian Federation, taking into account its interests and increasing the individual sovereignty of the EU and NATO countries when adopting foreign policy decisions. At the same time, Ukraine should make formal concessions to the Russian Federation and receive compensatory mechanisms at the expense of NATO and the EU.

4. The fourth group of the Russian Federation and its closest allies formally demand the actual surrender of Ukraine - the rejection of the occupied territories, the rejection of cooperation with NATO and military development, and a change in domestic policy; but they could potentially agree to fixing occupied territories for the Russian Federation and additional guarantees in the field of security and freedom of world trade.

Details of peace plans

1. Ukraine.

Ukraine presented its 10 points of the “peace formula” on November 15, 2022. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky during an online speech at the G20 summit announced 1his conditions on which peace with Russia is possible 2:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety. It implies restoring security around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, which is now under the occupation of the Russian army.

2. Food security. It means to ensure the unhindered export of Ukrainian food.

3. Energy security. Restoring the infrastructure of Ukraine after the massive rocket attacks of the Russian Federation. And prevent them in the future. It is also necessary to impose a price limit on Russian energy resources.

4. Release of all prisoners and deportees. It is proposed to carry out an exchange of prisoners according to the "all for all" formula. This format also includes civilians (including children) taken to the territory of the Russian Federation.

5. Implementation of the UN Charter and restoration of territorial integrity and world order. Russia must confirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine within the framework of the resolutions of the UN General Assembly

6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities. The Russian Federation must withdraw all its troops from the territory of Ukraine.

7. Return of justice. Creation of a special tribunal for crimes committed as a result of Russian aggression. As well as a mechanism for compensation for damage caused by the war.

8. Counteracting ecocide. A mechanism is needed to assess the damage to Ukraine's natural resources, which the Russian Federation should compensate.

9. Security guarantees for Ukraine. Creation of real security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent a second attack. Changes and fixation of key elements of security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space.

10. Fixating the end of the war. After all the steps are implemented, the parties must sign a document on fixing the end of the war.

The "peace formula" of Ukraine was supported by the United States and other G7 countries 3- Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Japan and Canada. The countries of the Lublin Triangle are Poland and Lithuania. As well as Slovakia and Finland, Austria. At the joint summit on February 3, 2023. The formula of peace was officially supported by the European Union 4.

The "peace plan" of Ukraine, in the form in which it was presented, actually implies the surrender of the Russian Federation. Therefore, it is expected that the “peace formula” of V. Zelensky caused great indignation and rejection in the Kremlin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said 5that its implementation " is out of the question ."

Currently, Ukraine officially declares that it does not accept any proposals that provide for the loss of territories or the freezing of the conflict. Indicative in this regard is the statement of the Deputy Chairman of the Presidential Office Igor Zhovkva, he stressed: “There cannot be a “Brazilian plan” for peace in Ukraine, a “Chinese plan”, an “African plan”, or a “Vatican plan”. Since the war is taking place on the territory of Ukraine, the formula for peace should be only Ukrainian. The President of Ukraine is ready to listen to any proposals. These proposals have been repeatedly voiced. But all these proposals, if they are acceptable to the Ukrainian side, must first of all be included in the corresponding basis of President Zelensky's peace formula.6

In Ukraine, it has also been repeatedly emphasized that it is now impossible to negotiate with the dictator of the Russian Federation V. Putin: “ Today he is a terrorist who still does not keep his word,” President V. Zelensky said 7.

The peace plan that Ukraine is promoting is not final, and it is not going to take into account the proposals and wishes of the Russian Federation. But protracted hostilities without a clear advantage of the parties are already partially affecting the political position of the allies.

The other day, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said that the basic principles cannot be changed in President Zelensky's "peace formula", but You can change the order of the items 8.

This statement about the possibility of reviewing the procedure for implementing the points of the peace plan can be regarded as a proposed compromise by Ukraine in the framework of the negotiation process, which intensified after consultations in Copenhagen (Denmark June 24, 2023)9 and Jeddah (Saudi Arabia 5-6 August 2023) 10.

In particular, this may mean that Ukraine is considering the possibility of starting a negotiation process without the liberation of all the occupied territories and freezing the conflict, to which the Ukrainian leadership categorically did not agree before.

So, for example, if such items as the withdrawal of Russian troops, the punishment of those responsible, and the payment of reparations, are brought to the very end, this will mean that their implementation is regarded as an unlikely scenario and more like a political declaration. Any truce agreements are likely to be implemented only in the first few points.

But it should also be taken into account that V. Zelensky's "Peace Formula" was initially focused more on foreign partners, therefore it is built in such a way that its first three positions are radiation and nuclear safety; food security; energy security is the most important and interesting for our international partners 11.

The citizens of Ukraine are more concerned about the cessation of hostilities, the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country, and the withdrawal of Russian troops. Less important in Ukraine are the points of energy and food security, prevention of ecocide, as well as building a security architecture.

2. RF.

From the first days of the war, the top leadership of the Russian Federation has been broadcasting an imaginary readiness for negotiations with Ukraine, but at the same time, conditions are being put forward that are unacceptable to the Ukrainian side, for example, recognition of the Russian status of the occupied territories.

At the beginning of the war, the Russian Federation put forward six main requirements for Ukraine 12.

1. Neutral status of Ukraine and refusal to join NATO. At the same time, the Russian Federation was supposed to become one of the guarantors of security.

2. The Russian language was to become the second state language.

3. Ukraine had to recognize Crimea as Russian.

4. Recognition by Ukraine of independence of the so-called. "DPR" and "LPR" within the administrative boundaries of regions (including Ukrainian-controlled territories).

5. Holding in Ukraine so-called "denazification" - a ban on the activities of ultranationalist, Nazi, and neo-Nazi parties and public organizations, the abolition of existing laws on the glorification of Nazis and neo-Nazis.

6. Holding in Ukraine the so-called "demilitarization". A complete rejection of offensive weapons, under which, if desired, any type of weapons can be brought.

Regarding Ukraine's accession to the EU, there were no objections at the beginning of the war. March 2022 representatives of the Russian delegation at the talks with Ukraine said that the Russian Federation would not object to the country's accession to the EU (recall that on June 23, 2022, the summit of EU leaders agreed on the status of EU candidates for Ukraine and Moldova) 13.

But after May 2022, the negotiation process between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was finally stopped, and Moscow's rhetoric became variable. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the EU has " turned from a constructive economic platform into an aggressive, militant player who is already declaring his ambitions far beyond the European continent. "14

Additional irritation of the Russian Federation was caused by the supply of Western weapons and the strengthening of sanctions. Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN Dmitry Polyansky said that Russia no longer sees a difference between Ukraine's accession to the European Union and NATO 15. But Russian President V. Putin, speaking about the possible entry of Ukraine into the EU, said that he had nothing against it since this is not a military bloc 16.

Now the Russian Federation makes it clear that it does not intend to negotiate with Ukraine even about the fate of the occupied territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions), pseudo-referendums on the entry of these territories into the Russian Federation were held on September 23-27, 2022. This position is confirmed by the fact that the Russian CEC has officially announced "elections" in the occupied territories, which will be held on September 3-10, 2023. 17At the same time, the Russian Federation insists that Ukraine maintain a neutral status and is already opposed not only to the country's entry into NATO but also to the EU.

In general, the Russian Federation is now seeking to make Ukraine and its allies responsible for the continuation of the war. This is done both for third countries (PRC, India, Turkey, South Africa, and others) and for internal Russian public opinion. So the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin during negotiations with the African delegation in St. Petersburg on June 17, 2023. accused Ukraine of refusing to sign the previously agreed Istanbul Treaty in March 2022 18.

 

3. Istanbul agreements.

According to President V. Zelensky, at the beginning of the war, Ukraine was ready for a settlement formula: " security guarantees-neutrality-non-nuclear status ". 19This formula had to be implemented in stages (in order of priority) 20:

• The signing of the agreement by the presidents of the Russian Federation and Ukraine ;

• Withdrawal of Russian and "LDNR" troops to the borders as of February 24, 2022 ;

• The signing of an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine and guarantor countries (previously called the USA, Britain, Turkey, Germany, France, Poland, and others);

• Ratification of treaties in the Parliament of Ukraine and the parliaments of other countries ;

• Holding a referendum in Ukraine and, based on its results, amending the Constitution of Ukraine.

According to our assessment, even if agreements are reached, the procedure for amending the Constitution of Ukraine and the referendum could last until December 2022. The very reference to the idea of a “ referendum ” and “ guarantor countries " is perceived in the Russian Federation as a dragging out of time, calming down the patriotic environment within Ukraine, and looks like an attempt to share responsibility. Also, Ukraine refused to discuss "denazification" and "demilitarization", which were previously discussed in the Russian Federation 21.

Following the negotiations in Istanbul on March 29, 2022. The head of the Russian delegation, V. Medinsky 22, said that Ukraine had conveyed the principles of a possible future agreement fixed on paper, which provide for:

• refusal to join NATO, fixing the non-bloc status of Ukraine;

• renunciation of nuclear weapons and other WMD;

• refusal to deploy foreign military bases and military contingents;

• the obligation to conduct military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states, including Russia.

From the Russian side, it was noted that in the Ukrainian proposals, many provisions were difficult to implement, for example:

- there are no other Russian demands in the draft potential agreement - "demilitarization", "denazification" 23, change in humanitarian policy, recognition of the Russian status of Crimea, and the independence of ORDLO.

- discussion of the status of the Crimea. RF considers this issue closed;

- potential contract procedure. In particular, the withdrawal of Russian troops to hold a referendum and amend the Constitution of Ukraine and the lack of guarantees for their implementation. In addition, such an implementation format could take 6-12 months;

-withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders on February 23, which meant for the Russian Federation the loss of 2/3 of the territories of the "LPR", the possibility of military pressure on the city of Kyiv, the abandonment of the Kherson region - a land bridge to the Crimea, water to the Crimean Canal, electricity from the ZNPP.

- there was no issue of sanctions;

- the process of negotiations with potential guarantor countries has not been started, and so on.

 By and large, the " formula of the entire Ukrainian proposal " was that Ukraine agreed to a neutral status in exchange for real security guarantees, and the issues of Crimea and Donbas were taken out of the scope of negotiations and postponed for the future.

However, not all Western countries were ready to support the Istanbul agreements; the United States and Great Britain opposed it. Taking into account the existence of serious disagreements on the implementation of the agreements reached in Turkey between the parties to the conflict themselves (Ukraine and the Russian Federation), in the future, the negotiation process completely stalled.

4. China.

In Ukraine, they admit that the PRC can lead the process of peace negotiations. February 24, 2023 On the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the PRC proposed its so-called " peace plan ".

China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis consists of 12 points 24:

1. Respect for the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, must be strictly observed. It is necessary to effectively maintain the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all countries.

2. Rejection of the "cold war mentality". The security of one country should not be ensured at the expense of others. The security of the region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs.

3. Cessation of hostilities. All parties should support Russia and Ukraine in working in the same direction and resuming direct dialogue as soon as possible.

4. Resumption of peace talks. All efforts to promote a peaceful resolution of the crisis must be encouraged and supported... China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard.

5. Solution of the humanitarian crisis. All measures that contribute to the mitigation of the humanitarian crisis must be encouraged and supported.

6. Protection of the civilian population and prisoners of war. The parties to the conflict must strictly observe the norms of international humanitarian law.

7. Ensuring the safety of nuclear power plants. China calls on all parties to abide by international law, including the Convention on Nuclear Safety (CNS), and resolutely avoid man-made nuclear accidents.

8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear wars must not be waged. 9. Promoting the export of grain. All parties should implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative, signed by Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and the UN, in a fully effective, and balanced manner, and support the UN in playing an important role in this regard.

10. Ending "unilateral sanctions". Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the problem; they only create new problems. China opposes unilateral sanctions mandated by the UN Security Council.

11. Support the stability of industrial chains and supply chains. A concerted effort is needed to mitigate the effects of the crisis and prevent it from disrupting international cooperation in energy, finance, food trade, and transport, and undermining the global economic recovery.

12. Promoting post-war reconstruction. The international community needs to take action to support post-conflict reconstruction in conflict zones. China stands ready to assist and play a constructive role in these efforts.

A month after the plan was made public, Chinese leader Xi Jinping visited the Russian Federation, and two months later, at the end of April 2023, for the first time since the beginning of the invasion, a telephone conversation took place with President of Ukraine V. Zelensky. After that, the PRC sent a special representative of the PRC government for Eurasian affairs Li Hui to Ukraine 25, he visited Kiev on May 17-18. During his European tour, Li Hui also visited Russia, Poland, France, and Germany.

The PRC must offer its participation in the post-conflict reconstruction and financing of Ukraine.

It is worth noting that the Chinese peace plan is not quite a plan yet, but rather a set of principles or a concept that is devoid of specifics on Ukraine, There are no clear proposals on what each of the parties to the conflict should do.

Since the plan should provide for specific steps, deadlines, and obligations of the parties. This is not in the Chinese peace plan. If desired, the parties may interpret the content of its clauses in their favor. (such as, for example, Respect for the sovereignty of all countries). The only point that can cause a clear protest from Ukraine and its allies is the end of unilateral sanctions.

The goal of the Chinese peace concept is not so much a peaceful settlement in Ukraine as counter-positioning. Ideological competition with the United States and other countries that advocate a forceful solution to the conflict.

Thus, the PRC is trying to win the support of the countries of Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Therefore, this peace plan should be perceived primarily as a document that is aimed at global competition with the United States and its allies. And only secondarily as a document aimed at settling the Ukrainian-Russian war.

The PRC calls the war in Ukraine a " conflict ", the word " war " is never mentioned in the text. At the same time, China declares that does not rule out support for Ukraine's desire to reach the 1991 borders. This was stated by the Permanent Representative of the People's Republic of China to the EU, Fu Cong, in an interview with the Al Jazeera newspaper 26. The Chinese diplomat pretends to support Ukraine's return to Crimea, as well as other regions partially controlled by Russia. " Why not? We respect the territorial integrity of all countries, " Fu Cong said.

5. Türkiye.

The position of the President of Turkey R. Erdogan was significantly strengthened due to the war in Ukraine, he actively used his influence and contacts with both the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky, and the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian-Russian war, Turkey has strengthened its role as the main mediator in a peace settlement. The first two rounds of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations took place on the territory of Belarus (February 28 and March 3, 2022), later the negotiation platform was moved to Turkey. The relocation of the negotiating platform in Ukraine was considered a victory since at that time Turkey was considered as one of the countries of security guarantors.

Türkiye has created an international precedent for dealing with the Russian Federation and pursuing its national interests. Turkey not only did not follow the path of a collective sanctions policy but also defiantly maintains relations with Moscow - it is turning into a trade hub between the West and the Russian Federation, the main mediator in the negotiations. Türkiye is also becoming one of the main partners of the Russian Federation in circumventing sanctions. A new shadow route for Russian oil to the EU is opening up through Turkey, where more and more Russian crude oil is being refined as the country ramps up exports of oil products to the EU and the US.

Largely thanks to the efforts of Turkey, in July 2022, a “ grain deal ” 27was concluded for the export of food from Ukrainian ports. This, in turn, demonstrated the precedent of partial lifting of sanctions and willingness to compromise when it comes to critical issues of the global economy and political stabilization of the situation.

March 2023 in Turkey they said they were ready to support the Chinese proposals if they " create the foundation for negotiations. " 28They believe that the West “ miscalculated the situation ”, and the sanctions against Russia are only pushing it towards closer ties with China.

Now Turkey is trying to regain its role as the main negotiator and wants to again offer Ukraine and Russia to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations. Turkish President R. Erdogan is counting on negotiations with Russian President V. Putin to agree on a new renewal of the “ grain deal ” (the Russian Federation withdrew from it on July 17, 2023). Which in practice, given the entire list of requirements of the Russian Federation, looks unlikely. The success of Turkey is not particularly counted on in Ukraine either, the National Bank of Ukraine in its macro forecast assumes that the seaports will be unblocked no earlier than mid-2024.

6. The Vatican City.

The head of the Holy See, Pope Francis, is one of the contenders to take the role of chief negotiator in resolving the war in Ukraine. He is a representative of a part of the world elites who are considering the possibility of negotiations with the Russian Federation or China, and the formation of certain agreements with them, which may imply concessions from Ukraine (territorial or in terms of sovereignty). But in Ukraine, they are trying to resist this process and shape its agenda by regularly engaging in dialogue with the Vatican. On the eve of the visit of the President of Ukraine V. Zelensky to the Vatican (May 14, 2023)29 Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmygal met with Pope Francis on April 27, 2023, to discuss the "peace formula" that Ukraine is promoting.

April 30, 2023, Pope Francis said that the Vatican is involved in a " secret peacekeeping mission in Ukraine. " 30The purpose of the mission is " to try to put an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine " and to return the Ukrainian children taken to Russia. " Now there is a mission, but it has not yet been made public. When it is made public, I will reveal it," Francis said. The Vatican will send two of its envoys to Ukraine and the Russian Federation to discuss the possibility of " starting negotiations on a truce ."

On May 13, 2023, during a meeting with the Pope in the Vatican, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky made it clear that any mediation efforts of the Pope and other parties (countries) are not relevant today. That is, Ukraine insists on the previously declared positions (reaching the borders of 1991, compensation, and punishment of those responsible for the war). So is the statement of V. Zelensky that " we do not need intermediaries, we need a just world ." “ We want justice, we demand it. Victory is not only territories, it is a tribunal ” 31demonstrates that Ukraine refuses to make any compromises with the Russian Federation until all the occupied territories are liberated. The Ukrainian authorities will adhere to this position for several months (for the period of the counteroffensive).

7. African countries.

African countries have suffered greatly as a result of the war in Ukraine, in particular, due to anti-Russian sanctions, restrictions on the export of Russian and Ukrainian food and fertilizers, and so on. Concerning the actions of the Russian Federation, most African countries have taken either a neutral or pro-Russian position; but they are interested in preserving Ukraine in African food markets, which is a factor of political stability in the region.

The leadership of African countries, along with China, Turkey, and the Vatican, is now striving for the role of the main mediators and peacekeepers. June 2023 A delegation of African countries presented their peace plan in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. The visit of the African delegation coincided with the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive 32.

In general, President V. Zelensky welcomed the " peace initiative " of African countries 33. In cooperation with African countries, Ukraine considers three main goals :

• to involve as many African countries as possible in the implementation of the Ukrainian “peace formula”;

• create new opportunities for Ukrainian business.

• enlist support for the uninterrupted export of Ukrainian grains within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the Grain from Ukraine program.

According to various sources, the African peace plan implies the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for easing sanctions, and according to others - a truce without the withdrawal of Russian troops. Reuters reported that these preliminary measures are the following steps 34:

• The removal of Russian tactical nuclear weapons from Belarus.

• Withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine (not specified, or from the entire territory, or only from a part).

• Withdrawal of the arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, which was previously initiated by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

• The lifting of sanctions against Russia (again, it is not said whether we are talking about the complete lifting of sanctions, or only partial).

• A fail-safe and uninterrupted agreement on grain and fertilizers between Ukraine and Russia.

It is important that African leaders during their visit to the Russian Federation called on V. Putin " to demonstrate his desire to move forward on the path to peace, " Senegalese President Maki Sal said in an interview with the Financial Times. “ Before the next Russia-Africa summit (which will take place at the end of July), Putin must take some action to show his desire to move forward towards peace, at least in a humanitarian way,” Sal 35said. As an example of such possible actions, he named the exchange of prisoners or the return of children to Ukraine.

Parties to the conflict (Ukraine and the Russian Federation) expectedly confirmed their adherence to their previous positions. June 16, 2023 At a meeting in Ukraine with a delegation of African countries, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky 36once again confirmed that he would not “freeze” the conflict, and peace negotiations were possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territories. The President of the Russian Federation V. Putin, for his part, once again transferred the responsibility for stopping the peace talks to the Ukrainian side.

8. Indonesia.

On June 3, 2023, Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference in Singapore, proposed a new plan for ending the war in Ukraine and achieving peace. 37P. Subianto suggested that the conference participants adopt a declaration calling for an end to hostilities in Ukraine.

Indonesia's plan calls for a ceasefire "at the current positions of both sides" and the creation of a demilitarized zone by retreating 15 km from the forward positions of each side. The UN peacekeepers will have to monitor the demilitarized zone.

In addition, the Indonesian Defense Minister proposed holding a referendum under the auspices of the UN " to objectively ascertain the desire of the majority of the inhabitants of the various disputed areas ."

Reaction in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko stated that there are no " disputed territories " 38between Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine must restore its territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders, and a ceasefire, a 15-kilometer separation of forces and the creation of a demilitarized zone to end the conflict will not work.

9. Brazil.

Since the outbreak of a full-scale war in Ukraine, Brazil has demonstrated a commitment to neutrality. At the same time, Brazil, along with Chile, Nigeria, and Kazakhstan, is included in the list of four influential world powers, whose authorities the EU is trying to convince to isolate the Russian Federation, arm Ukraine, and restrain the PRC.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has repeatedly called for negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation 39, while he did not directly condemn the actions of the Russian Federation and did not impose sanctions against it. Probably, the President of Brazil wants to use the Ukrainian case to return his country to the world political arena through mediation in future peace negotiations.

In February, Lula da Silva spoke about plans to discuss the need for peace in negotiations with the leaders of Russia, China, Indonesia, India, and the United States. This list did not include Ukraine itself, for which the President of Brazil was criticized. Lula da Silva called for the creation of a G20 analog for Ukraine40. According to him, he received some consent from the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and China.

April 2023 Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine could cede occupied Crimea to Russia 41to end the war. In his opinion, Ukraine allegedly cannot demand the fulfillment of all points of its "peace formula". He called the help with weapons " the encouragement of war," which hinders peace negotiations.

The President of Brazil said that he allegedly wants to help Ukraine and Russia find a " golden mean " in negotiations on the end of the war. The Brazilian president considers only one way acceptable – "to stop and agree."

In general, the Brazilian approach to resolving the conflict in Ukraine has been criticized. According to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the President of Brazil proposes " an approach according to which the victim and the aggressor are placed on the same scale, and the countries that help Ukraine defend itself against deadly aggression are accused of encouraging war. "42

10. Saudi Arabia.

President of Ukraine V. Zelensky had regular contact with the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries, e.g., the United Arab Emirates and some other countries, since they have serious economic views on Ukraine, own resources there, and rely on large infrastructure facilities. Saudi Arabia is ready to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud said during the Arab League (LAS) summit that Riyadh supports international efforts to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict 43.

May 2023 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky made a speech as a guest of honor at the Arab League (LAS) summit in Saudi Arabia, as well as several bilateral meetings with leaders of individual countries, which could become significant in terms of the Arab world's perception of the conflict in Ukraine. So V.Zelensky during his speech asked the delegates to support the Ukrainian "peace formula" 44.

With the help of Western allies, Saudi Arabia seizes the role of chief negotiator from other claiming countries (China, Turkey, the Vatican, Brazil, etc.) and in parallel is fixed in the role of a coordinating leader for the Arab world and the Middle East region.

On August 5 and 6, 2023 Saudi Arabia (in Jeddah) hosted a summit dedicated to the peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine, at which more than 40 states were represented. Russia was not invited to the summit 45.

Following the meeting:

1. The participants abandoned the joint statement and the summit in Jeddah ended without a final declaration.

2. But European diplomatic circles have reported reaching an agreement on some points. According to them, Saudi Arabia presented the peace plan along with other countries.

It assumes support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine; ceasefire on all fronts; the beginning of peace negotiations under the supervision of the UN; exchange of prisoners.

3. At the summit in Saudi Arabia, a new negotiating format was created, separate working groups to discuss issues such as global food security, nuclear security, and the release of prisoners.

The summit in Saudi Arabia is not yet a full-fledged negotiation process, but consultations. The negotiations, as a rule, should be attended by representatives who are authorized to reach certain agreements and sign the relevant documents. Now some people expressed their position and tried to find out the position of the other side. In addition, negotiations without the direct participation of the Russian Federation and even Belarus are hardly feasible. Therefore, this is a preliminary stage for full-fledged negotiations, which may begin after the Ukrainian counter-offensive as early as this autumn or winter. The summit in Saudi Arabia showed that the parties are more inclined to negotiate and look for compromise models.

On the one hand, the summit participants declared that they recognize the value of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, which gives the Ukrainian side a good start to the negotiation process. But at the same time, there is a big difference between "recognizing the value" (the need to take them into account when developing an agreement) and demanding implementation.

 

In general, to better understand the very complex processes of peace negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, it is worth remembering the Minsk format that preceded the full-scale war. (On February 17, 2015, the Security Council adopted a resolution in which it approved the Package of Measures for the Implementation of this treaty) 46. The structure and wording of the text of the agreements led to disagreements between Ukraine and Russia regarding the sequence of implementation of its points.

11. Minsk agreements.

A set of documents that were developed to end hostilities in the east of Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk regions) in 2014.

The first Minsk agreements 47were signed on September 5, 2014. The agreement was signed by members of the Trilateral Contact Group - the second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma, Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini, and the leaders of the so-called "LDNR" - Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky.

The agreement provided for a bilateral ceasefire in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the withdrawal of heavy weapons and the creation of a security zone in these areas, the deployment of an OSCE observation mission, the withdrawal of illegal armed groups from Ukraine, and the release of prisoners.

The second Minsk agreements 48were concluded on February 12, 2015. in Minsk by the leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine, and Russia in the Normandy Four format and signed by the Trilateral Contact Group for the Peaceful Settlement of the Situation in Eastern Ukraine, consisting of representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE, as well as leaders of the self-proclaimed "LDNR".

The agreement provided:

1. An immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from 0000 hours. (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.

2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides at equal distances to create a security zone at least 50 km wide apart from each other.

3. Ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons by the OSCE from the first day of the withdrawal, using all necessary technical means

4. On the first day after the withdrawal, start a dialogue on the modalities for holding local elections under the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions", as well as on the future regime of these areas based on this law.

5. Provide pardons and amnesties by enacting a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine.

6. Ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons based on the "all for all" principle.

7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage, and distribution of humanitarian aid to those in need based on an international mechanism.

8. Determination of modalities for the full restoration of socio-economic ties, including social transfers, such as the payment of pensions and other payments.

9. The restoration of full control over the state border by the government of Ukraine in the entire conflict zone, which should begin on the first day after local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement by the end of 2015 (note: the state provides support for the socio-economic development of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions;).

10. The withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

11. Carrying out constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of 2015 of a new constitution that provides for decentralization as a key element, as well as the adoption of permanent legislation on the special status of certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

12. Based on the Law of Ukraine " On the temporary order of local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions ", issues related to local elections should be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions within the Tripartite Contact Group. The elections will be held in compliance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by the OSCE/ODIHR.

13. Intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the creation of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

The Minsk Agreements were a compromise solution designed to stop the war in the Donbas, but their implementation was initially complicated by disagreements regarding the procedure for fulfilling the points of the agreements and who was the real participant in the conflict in the Russian Federation then denied their involvement in the armed conflict in the Donbas.

The dialogue between Ukraine and the Russian Federation has reached a dead end concerning the political part of the Minsk agreements. So, according to the interpretation of the agreement of the Russian Federation, local elections should be held in the Donbas, then it should receive a special status, after which control over the border was transferred to Ukraine. But in Ukraine, they insisted that holding elections was possible only after the transfer of the border under its control.

As a result, on February 21, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed so-called. "DPR" and "LPR", effectively annulling the Minsk agreements, which refer to the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the plan to return the so-called " republics " to their composition 49.

Even though the Minsk agreements were extremely unfavorable for Ukraine, they nevertheless fulfilled their original task: cessation of hostilities, fixing the line of confrontation (later - the demarcation line), and a ban on the use of heavy weapons. In addition, Ukraine has gained time to strengthen and modernize its defense capabilities. According to ex-Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel and ex-president of France François Hollande, the Minsk agreements were a “ postponement ” of the Russian war with Ukraine 50.

 

 

 

 

Criterion       A country or contract	When and where were they taken	Conditions for stopping hostilities, starting negotiations	Territorial integrity or concessions	Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO	Security guarantees or disarmament	Peacekeepers, lifting or easing sanctions against the Russian Federation	Global Settlement Issues
Ukraine	11/15/2022 for the G20 summit	Withdrawal of Russian troops from all territories of Ukraine within the borders of 1991, bringing to justice those responsible for the beginning of the war	Restoration of territorial integrity within the borders of 1991	It implies the entry of Ukraine into both organizations	Ukraine claims a clearly defined package of security guarantees from allied countries, as well as strengthening its country's defense capability	Not provided	Formally, it does not imply changes. But in fact, the end of the war on Ukraine's terms will significantly strengthen the country's role in the world especially in Europe.
RF	Voiced at the beginning of the war 24.02. 2022 in Russia	Implementation by Ukraine of all ultimatums of the Russian Federation	Territorial concessions from Ukraine. The Russian Federation claims the entire Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Lugansk regions, as well as Crimea	Refusal to join both organizations, neutral status of Ukraine	Demilitarization and disarmament of Ukraine, Russia becomes one of the security galantes	The peacekeeping contingent is not provided. Complete lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation	The Russian Federation claims to be a global leader on par with the United States and China, with its spheres of influence
PRC	February 24, 2023 PRC	cessation of hostilities and resumption of peace talks, without preconditions (this could mean that the de facto border will run along the demarcation line).	It is about respect for the sovereignty of all countries. But the details are not spelled out, if desired, the parties can interpret the proposals in their favor	not specified	not specified	Regarding the peacekeeping contingent, it is not specified. Provide for the lifting of "unilateral sanctions"	It is about abandoning the "Cold War mentality". The PRC is competing with the United States for influence in third-world countries and seeks to increase its role at the global level.
Istanbul agreements	March 29, 2023 Istanbul	Ceasefire. Withdrawal of Russian troops and the so-called. "LDNR" at the borders as of February 24, 2022.	Ukraine was supposed to lose control over a part (within the borders until February 24, 2022) of the Donetsk, and Luhansk regions. and Crimea	Refusal to join NATO, the neutral and non-nuclear status of Ukraine	The signing of an agreement on security guarantees for Ukraine and guarantor countries (formerly called the United States, Britain, Turkey, Germany, France, Poland, and others). Refusal to deploy foreign military bases and military contingents; the obligation to conduct military exercises only with the consent of the guarantor states, including Russia.	Not detailed	It implies an increase in the role of the Russian Federation at the global level. Since the Russian Federation dictates the conditions for the status of Ukraine (becomes a zone of influence of the Russian Federation).
Minsk agreements	First 5.09.2014; Second 12.02.2015 Minsk	They implied an immediate ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation starting from February 15, 2015.	Restoration of control over the state border by Ukraine in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The status of Crimea is not discussed.	Not detailed, but unlikely under all conditions.	The withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. Disarmament of all illegal groups	Not provided	They could increase the role of the Russian Federation at the global level.
African countries	June 16-17, 2023 Ukraine-RF	Not detailed. According to various sources, the African peace plan implies the withdrawal of Russian troops in exchange for easing sanctions, and according to others - a truce without the withdrawal of Russian troops.	Withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine (not specified, or from the entire territory, or only from a part).	not specified	Not detailed	A peacekeeping contingent is not provided. Cancellation of sanctions.	African countries are interested in maintaining political stability and ensuring food security in their region. In particular, they are interested in preserving the goods of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in African markets.
Indonesia	03.06. 2023 at the Shangri-La Dialogue defense conference in Singapore	Ceasefire "on the current positions of both sides" and the creation of a demilitarized zone by retreating 15 km from the forward positions of each side	Ukraine is losing control over the territories occupied by the Russian Federation, along the line of demarcation at the front.	not specified	Not detailed	Peacekeepers are to watch the demilitarized zone. No details regarding sanctions	In this case, Indonesia's proposals are aimed at maintaining overall political stability in the world. But to a greater extent, they do not take into account the interests of Ukraine itself
Türkiye	An exact date cannot be determined.	More likely to adhere to the position of China	This may imply certain territorial concessions	not specified	Not detailed	Not detailed	The position of Turkey has significantly strengthened in the world due to the war in Ukraine. Türkiye is turning into a trade hub between the West and the Russian Federation, the main mediator in the negotiations.
Vatican	An exact date cannot be determined.	Adhere to the position of China, at the same time agreeing with the proposals of Ukraine	Difficult to define, but may imply certain territorial concessions	not specified	Not detailed	Not detailed	The efforts of the Vatican are aimed at maintaining overall political stability and food security in the world.
Brazil	An exact date cannot be determined.	More likely to adhere to the position of China	Implies territorial concessions to a greater or lesser extent. Crimea remains in the Russian Federation.	not specified	Not detailed	Not detailed	Brazil's efforts are aimed at maintaining overall political stability and food security in the world.
Saudi Arabia	August 5-6, 2023 Summit in Saudi Arabia (in Jjida)	There is talk of a ceasefire on all fronts (under what conditions are not specified); the beginning of peace negotiations under the supervision of the UN; exchange of prisoners.	Support the territorial integrity of Ukraine	not specified	Not detailed	Not detailed	We are interested in maintaining overall political stability and food security in the world.

 

 

In conclusions.

If by the end of this year, the Ukrainian troops do not achieve significant success at the front, then inside the United States (as part of the presidential election campaign of 2024) discussions may intensify regarding further support for Ukraine at the current level and the need to ensure political control throughout the war. This may cause increased pressure on Ukraine from Western countries to soften its position. That is, it is likely that by the end of this year or early next year, the United States and its allies may push Ukraine to peace talks, the format of which, among other things, may provide for the actual refusal of the military liberation of the occupied territories. Therefore, it can be assumed that with the beginning of autumn or winter, behind the scenes between the parties to the conflict (or with mediators), political negotiations can be started, during which there will be a decrease in the intensity of hostilities and a stop to the advance of the front along the current line of contact.

A war of attrition is already clearly affecting the political position of the parties. In particular, the lack of significant successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive at the front is connected with the diplomatic efforts that Ukraine deployed to Saudi Arabia in Ukraine, including the Ukrainian mission and the allied countries were forced to deliberately soften their positions to maintain the negotiation format, while for the domestic audience, uncompromising rhetoric persisted. Ukraine and RF no longer declare peremptory commitment to their previously stated goals in the war.

The next round of international consultations on a peaceful settlement in Ukraine may take place within the framework of the G20 summit in India, which is scheduled for September 9-10, 2023. It is also possible to discuss this issue during the visit of the President of Turkey to the Russian Federation in September this year.

At the same time, before the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, any constructive peace talks between Ukraine and Russia (or with the involvement of intermediaries) are unlikely (despite the continuation of political consultations between the parties), since both countries insist on the principle points of their positions and try to force the opponent to accept their terms, by achieving a military advantage at the front. At the same time, negotiations on gas or a grain corridor are considered to be technical, and in the interests of the Western allies, and not political.

In general, there is a chance for a peaceful settlement only if agreements are reached between the countries of the West, China, and the Russian Federation, or as a result of the complete exhaustion of the parties, primarily the Russian Federation and Ukraine (which looks unlikely in the next 3-6 months), switching the war and attention to it, nuclear escalation or other significant world event.

At the same time, the achievement of political agreements should imply the formation of a certain geopolitical balance. It is more likely that peace will be achieved during the start of the presidential election campaign in the United States, this is spring-summer 2024. or even after the new presidential elections in the United States. But this probability is not dominant either.

The suppression of the rebellion of E.Prigozhin in the Russian Federation 1can also bring peace negotiations closer. In particular, the situation reduces the pressure of the radicals on the Russian government, which potentially makes it easier for V. Putin to conclude peace agreements with the West and Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian political system “felt its fragility " and, perhaps, now in the Russian Federation, they will be more inclined to some kind of compromise.

In addition, according to the results of the unsuccessful Prigogine rebellion and the subsequent cleansing of the anti-Putin opposition in military and passionate circles, Ukraine’s allies (especially European countries) may become more negotiable due to the loss of the rebellion and the destruction of hopes for a quick change in the situation in the Russian Federation from within the country. In particular, such a situation is possible if the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not achieve its goals. Even though the United States and NATO announced the transfer to Ukraine of 98% of the equipment necessary for success 2.

Currently, behind the scenes of world politics, various options for ending hostilities are being considered, as well as the status in which Ukraine should end the war. The People's Republic of China, the Republic of Turkey, the Vatican, Saudi Arabia, and several African countries are striving for the role of chief mediators and peacekeepers.

For the allied countries, it became obvious that without the participation of the countries of the Global South (Asia, Africa, and Latin America) it would not be possible to completely isolate the Russian Federation or force it to accept certain peace agreements. These countries are an important trade area for the Russian Federation, due to which it compensates for financial losses in the West. At the same time, the countries of the Global South understand that the Russian strategy to achieve its goals by military means has failed at this stage, so it is necessary to negotiate and negotiate with Ukraine.

Economy countries The Global South is very dependent on the situation in global markets, which has deteriorated greatly due to the war in Ukraine, so these countries are largely interested in the cessation of hostilities.

For the most part, the countries of the Global South express a neutral position and are skeptical towards both sides. Therefore, they do not consider Ukraine's peace plan to be effective in the current political situation. On the one hand, these countries do not consider the Russian invasion something correct and legal, but on the other hand, they consider that one of the reasons for the war is the expansion of the West to the East.

Without immediately demanding the de-occupation of all territories (there are already statements that it is possible to change the sequence of points of demands), Ukraine is probably seeking to involve the countries of the Global South in the negotiation process. Similarly, on the other hand, the countries of the Global South recognize the value of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine to influence its position.

Part of the Western Elites are now considering various scenarios to end the war. In particular, some of them imply that Ukraine will come to terms with the actual loss of part of its territory. in exchange for membership in NATO 3or the EU, or even simply promises of long-term military and economic assistance. However such options cannot be accepted in Ukraine.

The situation with the peace talks and the degree of forced compromises on the part of Ukraine will largely depend on the results of the summer-autumn Ukrainian counter-offensive, which will be decisive for many factors. So if the counter-offensive does not lead to the expected result, this, in turn, can lead to coercion by the allied countries and the world community to negotiate with the Russian Federation from a position that is disadvantageous for Ukraine. Therefore, with the deterioration of weather conditions, for example, in autumn (October-November 2023), more constructive peace negotiations between the Russian Federation and the West may intensify, providing for the freezing of the conflict in Ukraine and agreements in other areas.

 

 

Ruslan Bortnik and Oksana Krasovskaya

for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics.

 

 

 

Comparison table