Analytical review of the week No. 147 of 06.02.2022.

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MAJOR DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

31.01.- 06.02.2022

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND MAIN TRENDS.

DOMESTIC POLICY.

1. Speech by the President in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

2. A video with deputy A. Trukhin after the accident was made public.

3. The city council deprived the powers of the district administration and launched the process of creating district councils.

4. The SBU and BEB conducted searches at the Metinvest plants owned by R. Akhmetov and V. Novinsky.

5. Sociology.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Publication of an American response to Russian demands for security guarantees in the Spanish newspaper El pais ".

2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

3. Boris Johnson's visit to Kiev.

4. Rejep's visit Erdogan to Kiev and the signing of an agreement on a free trade zone between Ukraine and Turkey.

ECONOMY.

1. Ukrainian households want to be required to submit annual declarations .

2. Manipulative statistics of the State Statistics Committee on the growth of industrial production and average wages in Ukraine in 2014-2021.

SUMMARY AND MAIN TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the past week, we note the following:

Firstly , this week the trend towards confrontation continued . Office of the President and Mayor of Kiev for the influence and distribution of financial flows in the capital. The OP is also very annoyed by the presidential ambitions of V. Klitschko. As part of this confrontation, the Kyiv City Council deprived the powers of the district administration and launched the process of creating district councils. Most likely, the central government will hinder the implementation of these initiatives.

Secondly , the presidential decree on strengthening the defense capability of Ukraine is most likely a PR tool of the authorities, since an increase in the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an increase in the size of the monetary allowance of military personnel, as well as the transfer of the army to a contractual basis by 2024, suggest a significant increase in funding, not yet provided for in the State budget. In addition, the appropriate package of laws must be passed in parliament.

Thirdly , the trend to "tighten the screws" continues, aimed at suppressing and discrediting the main political and economic competitors of the current government. As part of the confrontation between V. Zelensky and businessman Rinat Akhmetov, the SBU and BEB conducted searches at Metinvest 's plants .

Fourth , in the wake of the continuation of corruption scandals involving deputies from the ruling Servant of the People party, her rating continues to decline. According to recent sociological studies, in the party standings, the SN is significantly inferior to the "European Solidarity".

Fifthly , the geopolitical confrontation continues between the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. Its degree, in the foreseeable future, is likely to increase, as evidenced by the Russian reaction to the American refusal to provide security guarantees in Europe, as well as the joint statement of the Russian and Chinese leaders, which was quite anti-American. As the geopolitical confrontation between the Russian Federation and China and the United States intensifies, Moscow and Beijing come to more and more coordination of actions between themselves. This is a long-term trend in modern international relations, and the prospects for its change seem unlikely until the United States weakens so much that it ceases to pose threats to Russia and China in the priority areas of their geopolitical interests.

Sixth , against the background of the aggravation of the US-Russian confrontation in Eastern Europe, the interest of NATO leaders in Ukraine has increased. As part of this process, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Turkish President Recep visited Ukraine this week. Tayyip Erdogan . Ukraine also signed a long-awaited free trade zone agreement with Turkey, which is expected to bring more benefits to Ankara than to Kiev. With regard to the intermediate results of whipping up information hysteria around the proximity of the “Russian invasion of Ukraine” , one can state a trend towards a significant increase in military and financial assistance from the West to Ukraine, and the suppression of anti-Western opposition in the Ukrainian politicum .

Seventh , the current government is tightening financial control over recipients of subsidies or any other state assistance, preparing for them the obligation to file tax returns from households.

Eighth , the data of the State Statistics Committee on the growth of average wages and industrial production contradict opinion polls regarding a possible increase in the welfare of the population. In addition, they miss the fact of the collapse of industrial production in 2013-2014.

DOMESTIC POLICY.

Briefly :

The confrontation trend continued this week Office of the President and Mayor of Kiev for the influence and distribution of financial flows in the capital. The OP is also very annoyed by the presidential ambitions of V. Klitschko. As part of this trend, the Kyiv City Council deprived the powers of the district administration and launched the process of creating district councils. Most likely, the central government will hinder the implementation of these initiatives.

The presidential decree on strengthening the defense capability of Ukraine is most likely a PR tool of the authorities, since an increase in the size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an increase in the size of the monetary allowance of military personnel, as well as the transfer of the army to a contract basis by 2024, suggest a significant increase in funding not provided for by the state budget.

The trend of "tightening the screws" continues, aimed at suppressing and discrediting the main political and economic competitors of the current government. As part of the confrontation between V. Zelensky and businessman Rinat Akhmetov, the SBU and BEB conducted searches at Metinvest 's plants .

In the wake of the continuation of corruption scandals involving deputies from the ruling Servant of the People party, her rating continues to fall. According to recent sociological studies, in the party standings, the SN is significantly inferior to the "European Solidarity".

1. Speech by the President in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

On February 1, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky spoke at the opening of the seventh session of the Verkhovna Rada 1. He stressed that "despite the strong support of foreign partners, Ukraine, first of all, should rely only on its own forces ." V. Zelensky drew attention to several recent successes of our country in the field of economy and energy in the context of the global crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.

In the session hall, the President signed a decree on strengthening the defense capability of Ukraine. According to this document, the financial support of military personnel will be increased to a level not lower than three minimum wages. Also, in accordance with the decree, the Ukrainian army must completely switch to a contract basis by 2024. The government should introduce a model of an intensive military training system, which, in fact, will become an alternative to compulsory military service.

However, the most important point of the presidential decree is to increase the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by 100 thousand people by 2025, and the creation of 20 new brigades.

The above decree of the President, first of all, should be considered a PR move by the authorities, given that parliamentary and presidential elections are to be held in the country in 2023-2024. With a high probability, the abolition of conscription will positively affect the loyalty of voters. It is noteworthy that a few days earlier, V. Zelensky's rival P. Poroshenko, from whose hands, it seems, the President also tried to knock out an electoral trump card by his Decree, came up with a similar initiative.

The main obstacle to the implementation of presidential initiatives is the economic situation in the country, or, more simply, the lack of funds. An increase in the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, an increase in the monetary allowance of military personnel, as well as the transfer of the army to a contract basis by 2024 implies a significant increase in funding.

Most likely, seeking funds for the implementation of these initiatives, the authorities will follow the well-trodden path of increasing the tax burden on businesses and the population. The policy of total fiscalization has been in full swing for several years now, and so far its only results have been the forced withdrawal of taxpayers into the shadows, as well as the crisis of non-payments for utilities (the cost of which is sewn up with a hidden tax).

2. A video with deputy A. Trukhin after the accident was made public.

On February 1, Ukrayinska Pravda published an investigation into an accident involving Oleksandr Trukhin, MP from the Servant of the People. The video from the scene of the accident shows that A. Trukhin tried to leave the scene by retreating into the forest, and also offered to pay the police and the victims of the accident. In addition, the deputy promised to negotiate with the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs D. Monastyrsky 2. In response to the publication of the video, the Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that the information that A. Trukhin tried to negotiate with the minister after the accident was not true. The department also noted that A. Trukhin is a special subject of criminal proceedings and that criminal proceedings in which he may appear as a suspect are under the jurisdiction of the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) 3. In turn, the State Bureau of Investigation stated that they did not have at their disposal a video from the service camera of the police, filmed after the accident with the participation of deputy A. Trukhin. Now the case of A. Trukhin is being investigated by the SBI and NABU. The State Bureau of Investigation is investigating an accident, and NABU is investigating an attempt to bribe the police.

The day after the video was published, A. Trukhin was expelled from the Servant of the People party 4. Earlier, the faction, allegedly, did not make decisions regarding the deputy, waiting for the results of the investigation.

The case of A. Trukhin is now especially toxic for the current government, since a corruption component has joined the accident. This, in turn, can hit the ratings of both the Servant of the People party and the President himself. That is why the authorities are taking prompt measures to distance themselves as much as possible from the culprit of the current situation.

Recall that last week a similar blow was already dealt to the reputation of the ruling party, when another deputy from the Servants of the People, S. Kuzmins, was detained while receiving a bribe. Considering that the video of the incident involving A. Trukhin was published in a publication affiliated with Western partners, it is possible that we are talking about the continuation of the general wave of discrediting the government team from the West, where they have recently been dissatisfied with the policies of V. Zelensky and the sabotage of reforms .

3. The city council deprived the powers of the district administration and launched the process of creating district councils.

On February 3, the City Council voted by a majority of votes for draft decisions, according to which district state administrations are deprived of their powers and budget funding. Instead, 10 new departments will be created in the KSCA, which will be given powers. In addition, the city council voted for the creation of district councils, whose powers will be determined until March of this year 5. Elections of district deputies are to be held on October 30. As conceived by the initiators of the voted resolutions, the heads of 10 districts of the capital should be subordinate to the mayor, who will approve their candidacies.

Earlier, the mayor of Kiev, V. Klitschko, was deprived of the opportunity to appoint heads of district state administrations. Now the city council is taking powers away from these administrations, trying to create district councils and their executive committees, subordinate to the mayor.

It is highly likely that the central government will try to keep the activities of district state administrations at the government level and will challenge the decision of the city council in administrative courts. It is possible that now suspicions will be brought directly to V. Klitschko himself. Previously, people and structures related to the mayor of the capital were subjected to pressure of this nature (searches, suspicions). For example, at the end of January, Nikolai Povoroznik , First Deputy Head of the Kiev City State Administration, was handed a suspicion in the case of deprivation of a land plot on Shchusev Street.

The above events continue the trend of confrontation between Bankova and the mayor of Kiev for influence and division of financial flows in the capital. In addition, the OP is greatly annoyed by the presidential ambitions of V. Klitschko , who is trying to build his political and financial vertical of power in Kiev, using it as a launching pad for the struggle for the post of head of state.

4. The SBU and BEB conducted searches at the Metinvest plants owned by R. Akhmetov and V. Novinsky.

On February 1, the Metinvest group officially announced that SBU and BEB officers, accompanied by the prosecutor's office, were conducting searches at mining and processing plants in Krivoy Rog. The holding accused law enforcement officers of pressure, and also assured that it was working legally and transparently 6.

According to investigators, the searches were organized at enterprises that " underestimated the rent for the use of subsoil ." And in 2018-2020, officials of four companies underpaid UAH 18 7billion .

Metinvest 's main shareholders are Rinat Akhmetov's SCM group (71.24%) and Vadim Novinsky's Smart Holding (23.76%), who jointly manage the company.

Earlier on January 26, Prosecutor General I. Venediktova announced that she had joined prosecutorial groups in two criminal proceedings involving Rinat Akhmetov's business.

The above events continue the trend of "tightening the screws" aimed at suppressing and discrediting the main political and economic competitors of the current government. In particular, V. Zelensky is actively fighting the entrepreneur Rinat Akhmetov. Which in the end can cause damage to the country's economy, as well as lead to a crisis in the energy sector.

Recall that in November, at a press conference, V. Zelensky accused the entrepreneur of trying to organize a coup d'état. The President's statements about the planned coup d'état on December 1 brought down the cost of R. Akhmetov's Eurobonds by 13%.

While Bankovaya is tightening the screws on R. Akhmetov’s business, his media criticize government officials and provide a platform for speeches for V. Zelensky’s competitor, D. Razumkov , whose MFO is actively involved in the process of shedding the mono -majority in parliament.

Among other things, pressure on the business of R. Akhmetov can also manifest itself as a demonstration by the OP to Western partners of a commitment to the course of deoligarchization . Information about the searches at R. Akhmetov's enterprises appeared during the visit of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Ukraine.

4. Sociology.

On February 1, the Razumkov Center published a study according to which V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating with a score of 26%; compared to the poll published at the end of November 2021 (25%), the President's rating has changed within the margin of error (+1%). Followed by:

• P. Poroshenko - 24.2%; (+6.7%).

• Y. Timoshenko - 10.3%; (+1.3%).

• D. Razumkov - 8.2%; (+2.7%).

• Y. Boyko - 7%; (-4%).

Party Rating:

• "European Solidarity" - 25.2%; (+6.2%).

• "Servant of the people" - 18.4%; (- 4.6%).

• "Fatherland" - 12.6%; (+ 3.6%).

• HLE - 9%; (- 4%).

• "Prudent policy" - 8.7%; (+1.7%).

• “Ours” – 5.3% (+1.3%).

• "Ukrainian strategy of Groysman" - 3.2% (-0.8%).

According to the results of this study, we can say that against the background of the decline in the ratings of V. Zelensky and the Servant of the People, there is a trend of growing support for P. Poroshenko and his European Solidarity party, whose rating has increased by more than 6% since November 2021 Despite the fact that V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating, the gap between him and P. Poroshenko has significantly decreased and is 2%. According to a KIIS study published last week, the gap was 2.6%. At the same time, in the party rating "EU" leads by a wide margin from the "Servant of the People" - 6.8%.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

In the past week, two trends have clearly emerged in international politics.

The first of these is the continuation of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States on the one hand and Russia and China on the other. The degree of this confrontation is likely to increase in the foreseeable future, as evidenced by the Russian reaction to the American refusal to provide security guarantees in Europe, as well as the joint statement of the Russian and Chinese leaders, which was quite anti-American. As the geopolitical confrontation between the Russian Federation and China and the United States intensifies, Moscow and Beijing come to more and more coordination of actions between themselves. This is a long-term trend in modern international relations, and the prospects for its change seem unlikely until the United States weakens so much that it ceases to pose threats to Russia and China in the priority areas of their geopolitical interests.

The second trend is the interest of NATO leaders in Ukraine, which has intensified against the background of the escalation of the US-Russian confrontation in Eastern Europe. As part of this process, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Turkish President Recep visited Ukraine this week. Tayyip Erdogan . Ukraine also signed a long-awaited free trade zone agreement with Turkey, which is expected to bring more benefits to Ankara than to Kiev. With regard to the intermediate results of forcing information hysteria around the proximity of the “Russian invasion of Ukraine”, one can state a trend towards a significant increase in military and financial assistance from the West to Ukraine, and the suppression of anti-Western opposition in the Ukrainian politicum .

1. Publication of an American response to Russian demands for security guarantees in the Spanish newspaper El pais ".

On February 2, the Spanish newspaper El pais published photographs of the US written response to Russian demands for security guarantees 8. The next day, US State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed the authenticity of the document.

The content of the screenshots published by the Spanish edition is as follows:

• NATO and the United States denied Russia two main demands - the non -expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance to the East and the withdrawal of American troops in Europe to the 1997 positions.

• The United States expressed its readiness to discuss with Russia "mutual measures of transparency and mutual obligations to refrain from deploying ground-based offensive missile systems and permanent forces with a combat mission on the territory of Ukraine."

• "The position of the US government is that progress on these issues (disarmament and confidence building measures) can only be achieved in the context of a de-escalation of Russia's threatening actions against Ukraine."

• The United States and NATO called on Russia to "immediately de-escalate the situation around Ukraine in a verifiable, timely and lasting manner."

• The US and NATO offered Russia an arms control dialogue in exchange for the withdrawal of troops and/or peacekeepers from Crimea, Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

• NATO and the US have declared no intention to deploy nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe.

In fact, the above means a complete rejection by the United States of the demands of the Russian side.

Renunciation of the main demands - non -expansion of NATO to the East and the return of American troops in Europe to the positions of 1997, while being ready to conclude new agreements on limiting missiles and exercises - this is a well-thought-out position of the Americans, aimed at legally fettering Russia's actions.

The Russian Federation believes that by postponing the issue of non -expansion of NATO "on the back burner", the US and NATO intend to conclude agreements prohibiting the deployment of Russian INF near the borders of the countries of the alliance and the conduct of Russian exercises in Europe. And then, when such agreements are concluded, they will begin an intensive military development of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. And when Russia tries to respond with strategic threats, it will no longer be able to do it legally purely, since it will be bound by agreements on intermediate and shorter-range missiles and limiting exercises.

It is important to note that the United States proposed to negotiate the non- deployment of Russian missiles and the limitation of Russian exercises directly on the European part of the territory of the Russian Federation and in Belarus. This would lead to a limitation of the possibilities of the Russian Federation and practically would not affect the interests of the United States and NATO.

In the current situation, a further increase in rates by the Russian side becomes very likely, in view of the fact that not taking any tough measures in response to the refusal of the American side to provide security guarantees would mean for the Russian Federation to “hit in the face” and drop the authority of the great power, which it management has diligently acquired over the past 20 years. Thus, further escalation in Russian-American relations is very likely. Although the parties will try to keep the dialogue within the framework of diplomacy for the time being, it is the “Ukrainian case” that plays the most important role in this.

2. Meeting of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

On February 4, in China, before the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met. Following the meeting, the leaders of the Russian Federation and China signed a Joint Statement on "international relations entering a new era" 9.

The document says that "Russian-Chinese friendship has no borders", and Moscow and Beijing fix the following:

• The parties intend to intensify work on linking the development plans of the Eurasian Economic Union and the One Belt, One Road initiative.

• No state can or should ensure its security in isolation from the security of the whole world and at the expense of the security of other states. - the requirement of the Russian Federation to the USA and NATO.

• The parties oppose the further expansion of NATO, call on the North Atlantic Alliance to abandon the ideological approaches of the Cold War era and respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries.

• The parties oppose the formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region.

• The parties are seriously concerned about the establishment of the US, UK and Australia (AUKUS) "triangular security partnership."

• Russia and China are making consistent efforts in the interests of building an equal, open, inclusive security system not directed against third countries in the Asia-Pacific Region (APR).

• The parties call for the withdrawal of nuclear weapons deployed abroad and for the exclusion of the unrestricted development of global anti-missile defense (ABM).

• The parties call on the United States to respond positively to the Russian initiative and abandon plans to deploy ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles in the Asia-Pacific region and Europe.

• The parties strongly advocate an international system in which the UN has a central coordinating role in international affairs

• China treats with understanding and supports the proposals put forward by the Russian Federation on the formation of long-term legally binding security guarantees in Europe.

• The Russian side reaffirms its adherence to the "One China" principle, confirms that Taiwan is an integral part of China, and opposes Taiwan's independence in any form.

• The parties oppose "color revolutions" and will increase cooperation in the above-mentioned areas.

• The Russian Side notes the positive significance of the Chinese Side's concept of building a "community with a common destiny for mankind."

• The parties intend to firmly uphold the inviolability of the results of the Second World War and the established post-war world order, to defend the authority of the UN and justice in international relations, and to resist attempts to deny, distort and falsify the history of the Second World War.

Based on the results of the meeting between the Russian and Chinese leaders, it can be concluded that as the geopolitical confrontation between both countries and the United States intensifies, Moscow and Beijing are coming to greater coordination of actions between themselves. This is a long-term trend in modern international relations, and the prospects for its change seem unlikely until the United States weakens so much that it ceases to pose threats to the Russian Federation and China in the areas of their priority geopolitical interests.

3. Boris Johnson's visit to Kiev.

On February 1, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson paid a visit to Kiev 10. On the eve of his trip to Ukraine, he announced that Britain would provide Kiev with almost £90 million in financial assistance.

Following the visit, the Office of the President posted on the official website a joint statement by Volodymyr Zelensky and Boris Johnson 11.

It says the following:

“ President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Boris Johnson met in Kiev on 1 February 2022 to discuss ongoing Russian hostile activity, including a troop buildup.

The Prime Minister noted the unwavering commitment of the United Kingdom to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. The United Kingdom stands side by side with Ukraine in the face of ongoing Russian aggression that threatens peace and security in the region and undermines the global order. The leaders emphasized that the right of every Ukrainian is to determine their own future .”

The above statement is a typical declaration of public support. No consequences in the practical sphere, with the exception of the decision to allocate 90 million pounds to Ukraine, which, incidentally, was taken even before the meeting of the two leaders, B. Donson 's visit to Kiev did not bring.

As an informational support for the visit, the Ukrainian media, and after them the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmitry Kuleba , began to talk about "the formation of a new alliance with the participation of Britain, Poland and Ukraine." However, no documents on this subject were signed during the visit, allegedly due to the illness of the British Foreign Secretary. .

As for talking about "alliance", it is important to understand the following:

1. This is not a union (at least for now), but a format of interaction. A distinctive feature of any alliance (whether military-political or economic) is the presence of mutually binding requirements (for example, obligations of collective defense, duty-free trade, free movement of labor, etc.). In the format of interaction, which has already been dubbed "UPA", by the first letters of the names of countries, there is none of this.

2. The initiative to create a format of interaction belongs to the Ukrainian side. This means that, most likely, its main purpose is informational. This happens in 90% of cases when the current Ukrainian authorities are active in foreign policy. And there is no reason to believe that this time will be different.

3. The space between the “old West” and the Russian Federation continues to stratify and segment into situational pacts and alliances, interest groups, due to the declining role of the United States and the strengthening role of Great Britain, Turkey, other countries, as well as pressure from the Russian Federation.

4. Rejep's visit Erdogan to Kiev and the signing of an agreement on a free trade zone between Ukraine and Turkey.

President Recep paid a visit to Kiev on February 3 Tayyip Erdogan , accompanied by a number of ministers 12.

The bilateral meeting of the presidents of Turkey and Ukraine lasted 3 hours and 10 minutes, after which both leaders spoke at a press conference , where they announced the results of the agreements reached.

“ Turkey is ready to do everything possible to end the tension between the two neighboring friendly countries [Ukraine and Russia] in the Black Sea region. We are ready to organize a meeting of leaders [Zelensky and Putin] or provide a platform for technical negotiations ,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at a press conference following the talks.

This statement reflects Turkey's desire to become a mediator in resolving the conflict in Donbas and Russian-Ukrainian relations in general. However, it is unlikely that such a scenario will be realized, since the Russian side has already refused Erdogan's mediation.

Otherwise, the main result of the visit of the Turkish delegation to Kiev was the signing of an agreement on a free trade zone between Ukraine and Turkey 13.

The document stated:

The following conditions were written:

• the establishment by Turkey of a 0% tax on 10,337 commodity items, which is 95% of the total exports from Ukraine to Turkey;

• 1,348 Ukrainian exports will be subject to tariff quotas or reduced duties;

• set a 0% duty on grain supplies from Turkey to Ukraine;

• the complete abolition of Turkish duties on Ukrainian industrial products is envisaged;

• a zero duty was set for 510 out of 840 metallurgical goods exported from Ukraine, duties were partially reduced for 130 goods, and quotas were provided for 167 goods. At the same time, Ukraine reserved the right to apply export duties on the export of scrap metal;

• Ukraine retained the effect of duties on used cars and second-hand;

• three- and five-year transitional periods for the operation of duties on vehicles and light industry products have been established;

• goods produced from Turkish raw materials will be considered Ukrainian and will be able to enter the markets of European countries duty-free.

According to the Cabinet of Ministers, the agreement will annually give +2.2% of GDP and +2.6% to household income. The increase in trade between the countries is projected at the level of 38%. However, these estimates are doubtful and seem overly optimistic.

The already available Turkish goods on the Ukrainian market, as a result of the entry into force of the agreement, will become even cheaper (primarily clothing and vegetables), due to which they can create serious competition for Ukrainian producers or even squeeze them out of the market.

In addition, there is a threat that Ukraine will supply Turkey mainly with raw materials and purchase high value-added products (household appliances, clothing, etc.). The clearest example of this was the sale by Turkey to Ukraine of flour made from Ukrainian grain.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2021 the trade turnover between Ukraine and Turkey amounted to more than $7 billion: Ukraine exported goods worth $4.1 billion, imported - $3.2 billion (we observe a positive balance). At the same time , 70% of Ukrainian exports consisted of metal and grain - that is, it has a pronounced raw material character.

In addition, it should be noted that despite the positive balance of trade, over the past 5 years, the share of imports of goods from Turkey in it has been constantly and rather rapidly growing. Under the conditions of the above agreement, this will certainly lead to the fact that in a few years the trade balance with Turkey in Ukraine will become negative.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

The authorities are tightening financial control over recipients of subsidies or any other state assistance, preparing for them the obligation to file tax returns from households.

The data of the State Statistics Committee on the growth of average wages and industrial production contradict opinion polls regarding a possible increase in the welfare of the population. In addition, they miss the fact of the collapse of industrial production in 2013-2014.

1. Ukrainian households want to be required to submit annual declarations .

On January 21, deputies from the Servant of the People faction registered bill No. 6539 entitled “On Households ( House Economics )” 14, which prescribes a tax revolution for literally every Ukrainian family.

Households want to be required to file annual income tax returns (and, of course, pay taxes) 15.

Without such declarations, it will be impossible to receive a subsidy or any other assistance from the state. In fact, we can talk about additional verification of applicants for social benefits . Thus, hidden control of expenses and incomes of citizens is being prepared. But Ukrainian families are also offered a bonus - households will be allowed to organize a business without registering an FLP and under a simplified procedure. In part, this echoes the ideas of D. Getmantsev on the taxation of the self-employed .

The draft law provides for state accounting of household income, and this is all cash receipts, up to earnings from the sale of potatoes from the garden. Accounting data for income and expenses is the basis for their inclusion in the annual declaration, which is submitted by the household to receive a budget refund (tax rebate) from the personal income tax. The concept of pre-declaration also appeared. Households must submit a so-called pre-declaration one month prior to filing a return, showing all types of income and taxes paid. The explanatory note states that the new model is built into the existing tax system. That is, at the place of work, taxes (personal income tax and military tax) will continue to be deducted from each family member. But plus, once a year, you will also have to fill out a general declaration for the family. And it already asks to indicate not only the official salary, but also all income and expenses. The draft states that the filing of family declarations is voluntary. To receive the so-called social tranc fert - any assistance from the state, whether it be a subsidy, child support or other allowance, the household must file an annual tax return.

The same applies to tax credit refund cases. The draft states that the obligation to declare does not apply only to pensioners and recipients of scholarships. In fact, the authors confirm: the goal is to verify applicants for social assistance . It is indicated that the annual turnover from the economic activity of the household should not exceed 8 million hryvnia. For a family business, filing an annual return is mandatory. The types of activities that a household can be engaged in without registering a sole trader are listed. These are hairdressing and cosmetology services, legal consultations, domestic services, nursing, tutoring, individual education of children (tutors), cleaning, repair of shoes, clothes, leather goods, furniture, household appliances, watches, etc., maintenance and repair of musical tools, laundry services, retail trade in food and manufactured goods from stalls and markets, passenger transportation services by road and cargo transportation, restaurant business and other types of work that are not subject to licensing. An exception will be intermediary services for the purchase, sale, rental of real estate, the supply and sale of jewelry.

draft does not say anything about registering through " Diya " and paying a tax of 5% of the turnover - an idea that was voiced by deputy D. Getmantsev on self-employed persons. But, in fact, households will be an analogue of self-employed persons.

2. Manipulative statistics of the State Statistics Committee on the growth of industrial production and average wages in Ukraine in 2014-2021 .

Information from the State Statistics Committee on the growth of the average salary in 2021 compared to 2020 by 20.9%, and taking into account inflation - by 11.9%, contradicts the results of the Razumkov Center study for January 2022, according to which 91% of the citizens surveyed said that the level their wealth either fell or remained unchanged in 2021 1617.

The volume of industrial production in 2021 is at the level of six years ago. That is, in 2021, the industrial production of Ukraine was at the level of 2016. Even this meager growth has an unstable trend; in the second half of 2021, there was an increase for 3 months, and a decrease for 3 months.

After a collapse in 2014-2015 by 21.2%, and then another minus 5% in 2019-2020, industrial production in 2021, although it grew by 1.1%, is lower by 18% than in 2013- m. In other words, minus 18% by 2013.

Over the past 8 years (except 2016), industrial production fell deeper and grew more slowly than GDP. Those. deindustrialization has a pronounced character.

Thus, the data of the State Statistics Committee on the growth of average wages and industrial production contradict opinion polls regarding a possible increase in the welfare of the population. In addition, they miss the fact of the collapse of industrial production in 2013-2014.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniel Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.