In recent weeks, the international community has been closely following the negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, held in Jeddah. These consultations have become a crucial stage in discussing a potential resolution to the conflict. However, questions remain regarding the specific commitments made by both sides and their feasibility.
Another factor that could influence the negotiation process is Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian regions. How might these actions impact Moscow’s strategy, and how does the Kremlin interpret such moves?
Finally, the key question remains: what can these peace talks ultimately achieve? What are the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement, and is a full-scale peace settlement possible?
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In an exclusive interview with News.Az, Ukrainian political analyst, Director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Ruslan Bortnik shared his insights on these pressing issues.
According to Bortnik, the key commitments made by both sides include the restoration of previously frozen U.S. military aid to Ukraine—originally allocated by the Biden administration—as well as intelligence cooperation.
"However, the rest of the agreements are merely declarations of intent or demonstrations of interest and are not legally binding. Ukraine was forced to make concessions under the pressure of circumstances, particularly due to the temporary suspension of U.S. military aid. After suffering a defeat in the Kursk region, Kyiv had almost no leverage to resist Trump's push for Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire—an initiative Ukraine had previously categorically rejected. However, under the current circumstances, another refusal could have led not only to a deterioration in relations between Trump and Zelensky but also to direct U.S.-Russia negotiations without taking Ukraine’s position into account.
Source: Reuters
As a result, Ukraine was compelled to accept most of Trump’s demands but did so in the most flexible way possible. Kyiv announced its willingness to sign a 30-day ceasefire agreement, provided that Russia also agrees. However, the actual text of the ceasefire agreement has not yet been drafted—its discussion is scheduled for next week, meaning there is nothing to sign at this stage. Moreover, Ukraine’s pledge to enter into such an agreement is subject to additional conditions, including security guarantees, the exchange of prisoners of war, and the return of civilians and children.
Nonetheless, Kyiv had to compromise on the issue of U.S. security guarantees and abandon the idea of restoring its borders to those of 1991, 2014, or 2022. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to allow the U.S. to rewrite agreements on natural resources in a way that is more favorable to Washington," the expert noted.
At the same time, the U.S. committed not only to restoring military aid to Ukraine but also to initiating negotiations with Russia to secure Moscow’s agreement to a ceasefire, Bortnik said.
"However, it is clear that Russia will put forward its own conditions, just as Ukraine has done. Unlike Kyiv, however, Moscow is not dependent on the U.S. and holds stronger leverage in its dialogue with Trump, making the upcoming U.S.-Russia negotiations even more complex.
Source: Reuters
Ukraine and Europe are hoping that the U.S. will fail to reach an agreement with Russia, which could lead to tensions between Putin and Trump. In that scenario, Washington might revert to the Democratic Party’s previous policy of supporting Ukraine and weakening Russia.
Diplomatic maneuvering has entered a new phase. Ukraine has had to make significant political concessions and revise its previous statements, but at this stage, there are still no actual documents or legally binding political decisions. For now, it remains a matter of political positioning and an attempt to win the war through diplomatic means," the political analyst explained.
According to Bortnik, Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian regions could have influenced the negotiation process if the Kremlin had responded harshly and immediately.
"In that case, Ukraine could have used this as evidence that the war is not going according to Russia’s plan and that Kyiv still has the resources to continue fighting. However, the lack of tangible successes from these drone attacks, coupled with setbacks in the Kursk region, weakens this position.
Source: TASS
If Moscow decides to retaliate forcefully with a massive missile and bomb strike on Ukrainian territory, it would be used in the information war as proof that Russia is trying to disrupt the peace negotiations. So far, Ukrainian drone attacks have not significantly impacted the negotiation process, although Moscow is using them as grounds to accuse Ukraine of provocations and of hiding behind the U.S. by signing a joint statement on readiness for talks.
Predicting the outcome of the negotiations on conflict resolution in Ukraine remains difficult. The process of drafting a ceasefire agreement—and even more so, a final peace treaty—will be highly complex and prolonged. It is likely that the primary goal of the new U.S. administration is to achieve a temporary truce that would last for the duration of Trump’s presidency.
Thus, despite some small steps toward a diplomatic resolution, the bulk of the journey lies ahead, and the risk of any peace agreement collapsing remains extremely high," Bortnik concluded.
