Preparations are underway for the meeting of the United States and Ukraine Presidents - Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky, which is scheduled for September 21 on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. The administration of US President D. Biden can use V. Zelensky’s visit to put pressure on Congress regarding the decision to allocate $24 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine (the White House did the same in December 2022).
Most likely, D. Biden and V. Zelensky will discuss the results of the counteroffensive and further scenarios for the development of events, in this regard, the implementation of the IMF "beacons," personnel changes and balances within the Ukrainian government (after the resignation of the Minister of Defense A. Reznikov and the arrest of oligarch I Kolomoisky) The process of further assistance to Ukraine. Given the control of the Republican Party majority over the US House of Representatives, the process of financing Ukraine in the future will not be as simple as it is now, and therefore, control over it will also be increased. The issue of possible elections in Ukraine may also be discussed.
The United States can also discuss with Ukraine their plan to reformat the UN Security Council to reduce the influence of the Russian Federation and China (expanding the number of permanent members of the UN Security Council and moving from the "veto power" to a simple majority of votes through a decision of the UN General Assembly). Ukraine can play an essential informational and political role in this matter.
For its part, Ukraine expects to receive guarantees of maintaining and increasing military-political and financial assistance from the United States - more economic and military aid from its allies next year in 2024 (totaling $43 billion), an unchanged course to support Ukraine and the absence of behind-the-scenes agreements from the Russian Federation. As for military assistance, Ukraine demands the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles, tanks, ammunition, new air defense systems, and F-16 aircraft.
At the same time, Ukraine is counting on the US exerting pressure on the EU and NATO. For the European Union to begin the procedure for admitting Ukraine to the EU, a decision will be made at the end of 2023. And NATO has changed its position in the future regarding inviting Ukraine to join the Alliance.
The specifics of future security guarantees for Ukraine will also be discussed. Promises for the personal safety of President V. Zelensky himself and his team will also be addressed in the context of intensifying internal political struggle in Ukraine and growing social discontent.
The United States likely wants to synchronize its actions with the Ukrainian authorities and take control of the war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, as far as possible, to avoid crises during the presidential elections in the United States. The United States is already secretly preparing for a protracted war that will last into next year. The results of sentiment in Ukraine and the Russian Federation indicate that the end of the war is hardly possible in the foreseeable future without an apparent defeat of one of the parties.
The G7 countries already recognize that Russia has turned the war in Ukraine into a long-term (expensive) perspective. A senior representative of the US State Department made this statement. The war in Ukraine is causing significant damage to the global economy, increasing calls from developing countries for negotiations. Notably, the level of support for Ukraine in the US is beginning to fall, and most Americans (55%) now oppose the US Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine.
And on the eve of the election campaign, Republicans continue to promote the topic of spending on the Ukrainian case of President D. Biden. The Fox News channel published a copy of the head of the White House Office of Management and Budget response to a group of Republican senators who requested a report on spending on Ukraine back in January. The letter shows that the United States has allocated $110.97 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, of which $101.2 billion has already been spent. This amount does not consider the $24 billion Biden requested from Congress for Ukraine last month.
There have yet to be any significant changes at the front. The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue offensive operations in the Melitopol and Bakhmut directions. There are fierce local battles in the southern route (on the western outskirts of Rabotino) and the Bakhmut (in the Donetsk region). The occupation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was a minor tactical success for Ukraine. Andreevka in the area of Kleshcheevki. From my side, The Russian Federation is trying to recapture lost positions here. The Russian Armed Forces also intensified attacks in the northeast in the Kupyansk direction but without significant success. Territorial control has remained the same.
Currently, Ukraine and the Russian Federation are waging a war of attrition rather than for territory, so it is unlikely that it will be possible to achieve a significant turning point in favor of one of the parties shortly. This year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will most likely not be able to reach the coast of the Azov Sea, and even recapturing the city of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region will take a lot of work. Ukraine understands that a pause in the counteroffensive could lead to intensified attacks from the Russian Federation. In particular, the Russian leadership does not intend to abandon the so-called zones—the Northern Black Sea region (Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions). The Ukrainian command is trying to prevent future incidents in these regions and deprive the Russian fleet of the ability to conduct amphibious landing operations. It is also essential for Ukraine to demonstrate political and symbolic victories, the beginning of the "battle for Crimea."
So, on the night of September 13, Ukraine launched its first massive missile attack on Sevastopol. Sevmorzavod, which repairs ships in the port, came under fire. A large landing ship and a submarine were damaged. We are discussing the landing ship, dock (LSD) "Minsk" and the submarine "Rostov-on-Don." The State Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine later confirmed these data. The next day, September 14, 5 Ukrainian Armed Forces naval drones attacked the patrol ship "Sergey Kotov" in the Black Sea.
Attacking the rear is another stage of a war of attrition. When repairing industrial bases, reserves, and raw materials, stocks are more important for the war than the troops taking direct part.
In any case, in the future, the consequences of a strike on the repair base of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol will significantly complicate the conditions for carrying out repairs of the remaining ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Accordingly, this will reduce its combat effectiveness, which may also affect the fighting south of Ukraine.
On September 19, the 15th meeting in the Ramstein format was held in Germany, in which representatives of 54 partner states of Ukraine and NATO and EU member states participated. The Ukrainian delegation is headed by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Ukrainian counteroffensive was "making steady progress." Also, according to Lloyd Austin, the promised American M1 Abrams tanks will be in Ukraine in the coming days. However, he did not give a specific date. He believes that Ukraine should receive ammunition, including 155 mm ammunition, to continue the fight. Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine needs air defense systems more than long-range missiles. We are discussing Patriot, IRIS-T, HAWK, NASAMS, and SAMP/T systems. Strengthening Ukraine's air defenses is vital to the battlefield and protecting Ukraine's critical infrastructure as winter approaches. In recent months, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine's ports and grain infrastructure. These attacks destroyed at least 280,000 tons of grain.
Following the meeting results in the Ramstein format, Denmark will transfer another 45 tanks to Ukraine: 30 Leopard 1 and 15 T-72. Germany has prepared a new package of military assistance to Ukraine worth 400 million euros but does not include Taurus missiles.
The situation regarding the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine remains to be determined. The US White House has not yet officially made such a decision. President V. Zelensky, in an interview with CNN, said that the United States has allegedly already reached the "finish line" in transferring long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. He assured that they will not be used on the territory of the Russian Federation (which is categorically opposed in the United States).
The situation with the opening of Ukrainian grain exports must be more favorable. The European Commission announced that it will not extend restrictions on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine after September 15. Ukraine's neighboring countries seek to expand the export ban until the end of 2023. Poland, together with Hungary and Slovakia, extended the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. At the same time, Poland stated that their restrictions would remain in effect indefinitely, and Hungary banned the import of 25 more products. Romania will extend the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products for 30 days. Farmers are blocking roads in Bulgaria due to the lifting the embargo on grain exports from Ukraine.
Ukraine has already filed claims with the WTO ( World Trade Organization) against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia due to their ban on the import of Ukrainian products. Poland says it will not allow Ukraine into the EU if the issue of grain exports is unresolved.
For its part, the United States considers the ban on the import of grain from Ukraine a sovereign decision of European countries.
Due to problems associated with the export of agricultural products, tensions between Ukraine and Poland are beginning to increase. It is known that the planned On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting of the Presidents of Ukraine and Poland, which was intended to discuss the export of Ukrainian agricultural products, was canceled.
Speaking at a briefing for Polish media in New York, Polish President Andrzej Duda defended Warsaw's decision to introduce unilateral restrictions on importing Ukrainian agricultural products. He compared Ukraine to a drowned man "who can be pulled into the depths."
For his part, speaking at the UN, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky expressed a certain degree of resentment towards neighboring countries that They want the ban on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to be extended: "It is alarming how some of our friends in Europe are playing out solidarity in the political theater. We create a thriller out of grain. It may seem that they are playing their part, but they are helping to set the stage for the Moscow actor." After these words of President V. Zelensky, The Ukrainian ambassador was summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry.
The position of European countries aggravates the already difficult situation with the export of Ukrainian food. On average, Ukraine exports 5-6 million tons of grain monthly. There are approximately 3-3.5 million tons without the grain corridor. In August, the dynamics of Ukrainian agricultural exports did not change - 3.7 million tons were exported in total. Exports through ports amounted to 2.3 million tons and 1.4 million tons by other means of transport.
Ukraine could export up to 2 million tons by land transport through EU countries and up to 3 million tons through the ports of the Danube River. But after the stop, the "grain agreement," the Russian Federation regularly shells the port infrastructure of Odessa and the Danube. And now, it will be difficult for Ukraine to resume the previous level of maritime exports.
The UN and Turkey called on Western countries to comply with the Russian Federation's conditions to resume the grain deal, but Ukraine is categorically against this. Even if the Russian Federation returns to the implementation of the "grain agreement," Ukraine will no longer be able to fully take advantage of the restoration of grain corridors due to the loss of some export contracts and the destruction of port infrastructure.
Aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. On September 19, Azerbaijan announced the start of "local anti-terrorism measures" in Nagorno-Karabakh. Their goal is to ensure Azerbaijani military personnel's safety and restore the Azerbaijani Republic's constitutional order in the region. By the end of the day, Nagorno-Karabakh called on Azerbaijan to stop the fire and begin negotiations. Azerbaijan voiced its condition for a ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations - complete disarmament and disbandment of the unrecognized republic. Otherwise, they promise to carry out "anti-terrorism measures." As a result, the authorities of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh accepted the proposal of Russian peacekeepers for a ceasefire and disarmament.
It is worth noting that all parties to the conflict behaved non-linearly. Russian peacekeepers were virtually inactive, and Armenia abandoned the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Armenian leadership (Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage) believe that the current attack on Nagorno-Karabakh is an element of the Russian plan and pressure on Armenia to force Armenia to request help and agree to the integration processes that Moscow is currently offering to Yerevan. Therefore, Armenia abandoned the defense of Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to its quick capitulation.
But suppose N. Pashinyan and his entourage are correct, and this is Moscow's attempt to punish Yerevan. In that case, there is a high probability that Azerbaijan's territorial claims to Armenia will be realized not only in terms of Karabakh but also concerning other territories, which could critically threaten the existence of Armenian statehood.
Armenia will also face complex processes for arriving Karabakh refugees and internal protests with a patriotic sauce.
Military situation
Fighting.
The situation in the Kharkiv region: The Kupyansky direction remains the same.
In Donbas, clashes of lesser intensity are observed in the areas of Bakhmut, Maryinka, and Avdiivka.
In the Donetsk region, attacks were repelled - in the areas of settlements Lastochkino, Kleshcheevka, Andreevka, Yagodny, and Bogdanivka.
The situation in the Southern direction: In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations in Melitopol and Berdyansk. In the area of the village Rabotino of the Russian Federation, which is trying to regain lost positions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding the line.
Black Sea-Azov direction: without significant changes.
Combat map.
Internal situation.
The situation around the export of Ukrainian agricultural products.
The situation with the opening of Ukrainian grain exports could be more favorable. Ukraine's neighboring countries are seeking to extend the export ban until the end of 2023. The European Commission announced that it will not open restrictions on imports of agricultural products from Ukraine after September 15. Let us recall that earlier, at the initiative of five countries bordering Ukraine (Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria), the EU introduced a temporary ban on the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products (wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds) until September 15, 2023, due to growing complaints from local farmers about the negative impact on their businesses.
Ukraine agreed to take measures to limit imports on its part. Despite this, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia extended the ban on importing Ukrainian agricultural products. At the same time, Poland stated that their restrictions would remain in effect indefinitely. Hungary also banned the import of 25 more products, including meat, that had yet to be discussed.
Romania will also extend the ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products for 30 days. Farmers are blocking roads in Bulgaria due to the lifting the embargo on grain exports from Ukraine.
Ukraine filed claims with the WTO ( World Trade Organization) against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia due to their ban on the import of Ukrainian products. "The Ukrainian side believes that unilateral actions of EU member countries in the field of trade are unacceptable and all member countries of the bloc must coordinate and harmonize trade policy since it falls under the exclusive competence of the EU," the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine said in a statement. “ It is fundamentally important for us to prove that individual member states cannot ban the import of Ukrainian goods," said First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine – Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko. Also, Ukraine will block the import of some Polish vegetables and fruits - onions, tomatoes, cabbage, and apples.
Croatia will also not import Ukrainian grain, as Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic stated. Zagreb is ready to provide the services of its ports, but nothing more. He also allowed the introduction of an embargo following the example of Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia. "Croatia's position and desire is that we are a transit country and not a country receiving huge amounts of Ukrainian grain, which is cheaper than ours, which would mean that our farmers are in trouble," said A. Plenkovic.
The United States considers the ban on grain import from Ukraine a sovereign decision of European countries. The White House announced this.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, a meeting was expected between the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, and the President of Poland, A. Duda. It was planned to discuss the export of Ukrainian agricultural products. Poland says it will not allow Ukraine into the EU if the issue of grain exports is unresolved. But later, it became known that the planned meeting of the Presidents of Ukraine and Poland was canceled. A. Duda said he could not meet with Vladimir Zelensky "for organizational reasons" but did not rule out that the meeting would occur later.
Speaking at a briefing for Polish media in New York, Polish President Andrzej Duda defended Warsaw's decision to introduce unilateral restrictions on importing Ukrainian agricultural products. He compared Ukraine to a drowned man" who can be pulled into the depths .”
For his part, speaking at the UN, President of Ukraine V. Zelensky expressed a certain degree of resentment towards neighboring countries that want the ban on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products to be extended: “ It is alarming how some of our friends in Europe are playing out solidarity in the political theater. We create a thriller out of grain. It may seem that they are playing their part, but they are helping to set the stage for the Moscow actor ." After these words of President V. Zelensky, The Ukrainian ambassador was summoned to the Polish Foreign Ministry.
The position of European countries aggravates the already difficult situation with the export of Ukrainian food. On average, Ukraine exports 5-6 million tons of grain monthly. There are approximately 3-3.5 million tons without the grain corridor. In August, the dynamics of Ukrainian agricultural exports did not change - 3.7 million tons were exported in total. Exports through ports amounted to 2.3 million tons and 1.4 million tons by other means of transport.
Ukraine could export up to 2 million tons by land transport through EU countries and up to 3 million tons through the ports of the Danube River. But after the stop, the "grain agreement," the Russian Federation regularly shells the port infrastructure of Odessa and the Danube. And now, it will be difficult for Ukraine to resume the previous level of maritime exports.
The UN and Turkey called on Western countries to comply with the Russian Federation's conditions to resume the grain deal, but Ukraine is categorically against this.
Even if the Russian Federation returns to the implementation of the "grain agreement," Ukraine will no longer be able to fully take advantage of the restoration of grain corridors due to the loss of some export contracts and the destruction of port infrastructure.
Sociology.
According to a survey by the Levada Center (recognized as a "foreign agent" in the Russian Federation). 70% of Russians support the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. Despite a slight decrease (in February 2023, it was – 77 %), this figure remains relatively high.
The highest level of support for the actions of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine is typical for the oldest age group (55 years and older).
Support for the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine differs mainly among those who approve or disapprove of the activities of their president. Those who agree with his moves have a 79% support rate, while those who dislike him have a 29% support rate.
There are slightly more supporters of a transition to peace negotiations among Russians than supporters of continuing hostilities: in August, the former made up 50% of respondents (in July – 51%), and the share of the latter – 38% of respondents (in July – 41%).
Among supporters of peace negotiations, half of those who responded (52%) explained their position by saying that "many guys are already dying" and "many casualties on both sides." Among the reasons for the transition to peace negotiations, 40% of respondents named "war fatigue." Another 13% say that "you need to be able to negotiate/negotiations are needed."
But the majority of Russians are not ready for compromises - 73%.
Only 20% of respondents believe that to end the military operation and sign a peace agreement, certain concessions should be made to Ukraine.
Young people are more likely to be willing to make concessions (under 24 years old – 29%)
Interestingly, a similar situation is observed in Ukraine. According to a survey conducted by the Ilk Kucheriv Foundation for Democratic Initiatives - Sumarno - 44% of citizens would like to end hostilities in one way or another.
At the same time, only 23% are ready to negotiate with the Russian Federation.
And 62% are against negotiations and are not ready for any compromises.
The results of sentiment (the unwillingness of society to compromise) both in Ukraine and in the Russian Federation indicate that in the foreseeable future, the end of the war is hardly possible without an apparent defeat of one of the parties.
The situation around Ukraine.
Preparation for the meeting between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine.
On September 21, a meeting is planned between the Presidents of the United States and Ukraine, Joe Biden and Vladimir Zelensky, at the White House.
V. Zelensky flies to the United States to attend a meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York.
It became known that the President of Ukraine, V. Zelensky, will also speak before US senators on September 21 ( but whether V. Zelensky will be able to speak before Congress is not yet a resolved issue due to the strengthening of Republicans in the House of Representatives after the last by-elections).
The last time V. Zelensky met with D. Biden was in July 2023 during the NATO summit in Vilnius. Even earlier, V. Zelensky and D. Biden met in May 2023 at the G7 summit in Hiroshima (Japan).
V. Zelensky will visit the Capitol, where he will hold talks with “ small groups ” of congressmen. The Financial Times also writes concerning sources. The publication also adds that V. Zelensky will ask D. Biden for additional military assistance. "Zelensky's visit comes as Congress debates President Joe Biden's request to provide up to $24 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine," the Associated Press writes.
The United States likely wants to synchronize its actions with the Ukrainian authorities and take control of Ukraine's war with the Russian Federation, as far as possible, to avoid crises during the presidential elections in the United States;
- use V. Zelensky’s visit to put pressure on Congress regarding the decision to allocate $24 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine (the White House did the same in December 2022);
- discuss personnel changes and balances within the Ukrainian government (after the resignation of the Minister of Defense A. Reznikov and the arrest of the oligarch I. Kolomoisky)
The United States can also discuss with Ukraine their plan to reformat the UN Security Council to reduce the influence of the Russian Federation and China (expanding the number of permanent members of the UN Security Council and moving from the "veto power" to a simple majority of votes through a decision of the UN General Assembly). Ukraine can play an essential informational and political role in this matter.
The United States is already secretly preparing for a protracted war that will last into next year. However, the results of sentiment in Ukraine and the Russian Federation indicate that the end of the war is hardly possible in the foreseeable future without an apparent defeat of one of the parties.
For its part, Ukraine expects to receive guarantees of maintaining and increasing military-political and financial assistance from the United States - more economic and military aid from its allies next year in 2024 (totaling $43 billion), an unchanged course to support Ukraine and the absence of behind-the-scenes agreements from the Russian Federation. As for military assistance, Ukraine demands the transfer of long-range ATACMS missiles, tanks, ammunition, new air defense systems, and F-16 aircraft.
At the same time, Ukraine is counting on the US exerting pressure on the EU and NATO. For the European Union to begin the procedure for admitting Ukraine to the EU, a decision will be made at the end of 2023. And NATO has changed its position in the future regarding inviting Ukraine to join the Alliance.
The specifics of future security guarantees for Ukraine will also be discussed. Promises for the personal safety of President V. Zelensky himself and his team will also be addressed in the context of intensifying internal political struggle in Ukraine and growing social discontent.
The main issues likely to be discussed at the meeting of the two Presidents were previously partially voiced during the visit of US Secretary of State Blinken to Ukraine.
1. Discussion of the progress of the counteroffensive. On the eve of the US presidential elections, B. Biden's team needs some improvement regarding the Ukrainian case. Otherwise, he may also suffer electoral losses, which will play into the hands of his competitors from the Republican Party.
The White House may be considering different options.
- Intensify offensive actions to achieve maximum success and a profound breakthrough of the Russian defense lines with access to the city of Tokmak. The minimum goals for Ukrainian troops on the Southern Front are the liberation of the town of Tokmak and the municipality of Polog (in the Zaporizhzhia region) and the approach of the line of Ukrainian control to the coast of the Sea of Azov, which would make it possible to put the Russian land corridor to Crimea under artillery fire.
- But the option is also not excluded - to take a break to minimize the loss of workforce and equipment and accumulate reserves that will be very useful to Ukraine for the war next year. The Ukrainian counteroffensive may last approximately until November of this year. Then, a pause can be expected.
- But it is also possible that we will talk about some temporary truce, including the resumption of negotiations with the Russian Federation.
2. The process of further financing of Ukraine. Taking into account the control of the majority of the Republican Party over the House of Representatives of the US Congress, further financing Ukraine in the future will not be as simple as it is now, and therefore, control over it will also be increased.
3. Implementation of the IMF's "beacons". Western partners will strive to control their expenditures by allocating significant funds and weapons. There will likely be demands for appropriate reforms to combat corruption.
4. Personnel policy of the Ukrainian authorities. The issue of personnel changes in the Office of the President remains open (there may be bargaining around the resignation of the head of the OP A. Ermak). New personnel rotations in the government government are possible. A new structure of interests may be formed within the Ministry of Defense. Suppose the previous composition of the Ministry of Defense was focused exclusively on the Office of the President. In that case, the deputy ministers will likely be those who will represent Western partners' interests.
5. Elections. It is possible that the United States will consider it necessary to reformat the Ukrainian government government next year, and now the current ruling team of V. Zelensky is preparing for this. The results of the counteroffensive will largely determine the starting positions of the authorities on the eve of a possible presidential election campaign in Ukraine.
The United States said it spent over $100 billion to help Ukraine.
The Fox News channel published a copy of the head of the White House Office of Management and Budget response to a group of Republican senators who requested a report on spending on Ukraine back in January. Thus, the United States allocated $110.97 billion for military, economic, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, of which $101.2 billion has already been spent. That total doesn't consider the $24 billion Biden asked Congress for Ukraine last month.
Thus, on the eve of the election campaign, Republicans continued to promote the topic of spending on the Ukrainian case of President D. Biden. Considering the considerable sum that was announced, it is likely that the D. Biden Administration will have to react somehow and report to the American public regarding exactly where such significant funds were spent. It is worth noting that the level of support for Ukraine in the United States is beginning to fall, and most Americans (55%) now oppose the US Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine.
Generally, the declared and actual assistance received differs significantly. Precise deliveries still need to catch up to promises. So, the United States transfers only 20% of financial aid to Ukraine. The US economy and its allies receive the rest.
Regarding the figure for aid to Ukraine announced in the United States. It is likely that in this way, on the eve of the election campaign, the Republicans continue to promote the topic of spending on the Ukrainian case of President D. Biden. Considering the vast amount that was announced, it is likely that the D. Biden Administration will have to react somehow and report to the American public regarding exactly where such significant funds were spent. It is worth noting that the level of support for Ukraine in the United States is beginning to fall, and most Americans (55%) now oppose the US Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine.
Generally, the declared and actual assistance received differs significantly. Precise deliveries still need to catch up to promises. So, the United States transfers only 20% of financial aid to Ukraine. The US economy and its allies receive the rest.
Prospects for counteroffensive and peace negotiations.
In general, the fighting at the front has reached a particular dead end, and it is unlikely that a significant turning point in favor of one of the parties will be achieved shortly. In particular, concerning the Ukrainian counteroffensive, this year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will most likely not be able to reach the coast of the Azov Sea, and even the recapture of Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region will be brutal.
At the same time, Ukraine understands that a pause in the counteroffensive could lead to intensified attacks from the Russian Federation. In particular, the Russian leadership does not intend to abandon the so-called zones—the Northern Black Sea region (Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions). The Ukrainian command is trying to prevent future incidents in these regions and deprive the Russian fleet of the ability to conduct amphibious landing operations.
So, on the night of September 13, Ukraine launched its first massive missile attack on Sevastopol. Sevmorzavod, which repairs ships in the port, came under fire. A large landing ship and a submarine were damaged. Later, Russian telegram channels said they were talking about the Minsk landing ship and the Rostov-on-Don submarine. The State Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine later confirmed these data. And the commander of the Air Force, Nikolai Oleshchuk, made it clear that aviation was used. Ukrainian aviation can only carry such attacks with Western long-range Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. The next day, September 14, 5 Ukrainian Armed Forces naval drones attacked the patrol ship "Sergey Kotov" in the Black Sea. Details are not yet known.
Attacking the rear is another stage of a war of attrition, when repair, industrial bases, stocks of reserves, and raw materials are more important for the war than the troops taking direct part.
In any case, in the future, the consequences of a strike on the repair base of the Russian Federation in Sevastopol will significantly complicate the conditions for carrying out repairs of the remaining ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Accordingly, this will reduce its combat effectiveness, which may also affect the fighting south of Ukraine.
Weapons supplies to Ukraine. The 15th meeting in the Ramstein format was held in Germany.
On September 19, the 15th meeting in the Ramstein format was held in Germany, in which representatives of 54 partner states of Ukraine and NATO and EU member states participated. The Ukrainian delegation is headed by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Rustem Umerov.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the Ukrainian counteroffensive was "making steady progress." Also, according to Lloyd Austin, the promised American M1 Abrams tanks will be in Ukraine in the coming days. However, he did not give a specific date. He believes that Ukraine should receive ammunition, including 155 mm ammunition, to continue the fight. Lloyd Austin said that Ukraine needs air defense systems more than long-range missiles. We are discussing Patriot, IRIS-T, HAWK, NASAMS, and SAMP/T systems. Strengthening Ukraine's air defenses is vital to the battlefield and protecting Ukraine's critical infrastructure as winter approaches. In recent months, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine's ports and grain infrastructure. These attacks destroyed at least 280,000 tons of grain.
Discussions continue in the United States regarding the supply of long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine. The US White House has not yet officially made such a decision. President V. Zelensky, in an interview with CNN, said that the United States has allegedly already reached the "finish line" in transferring long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine. He assured that they would not be used on the territory of the Russian Federation.
National Security Council Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby said the White House has not yet decided whether to send ATACMS long-range missiles to Ukraine. It is because Washington does not want the weapons provided by the United States to hit the Russian Federation.
Following the meeting in the Ramstein format, Denmark will transfer another 45 tanks to Ukraine, reports the Danish newspaper Berlingske, citing the head of the country's Ministry of Defense, Troels Lund Poulsen. We are talking about 30 Leopard 1 tanks and 15 T-72 tanks. Germany has prepared a new package of military assistance to Ukraine worth 400 million euros but does not include Taurus missiles.
The situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
On September 19, Azerbaijan announced the start of "local anti-terrorism measures" in Nagorno-Karabakh. Their goal is to ensure Azerbaijani military personnel's safety and restore the Azerbaijani Republic's constitutional order in the region.
The USA, Germany, France, and the UN called on Azerbaijan for a ceasefire in Karabakh. Armenia and France initiated a meeting of the UN Security Council on the Karabakh issue. It will take place on September 21.
Armenia stated that it does not intend to take military action with Azerbaijan because of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenian leadership reported that there are no forces on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and everything is calm on the borders of Armenia - in fact, they are dissociating themselves from this situation. Armenia is distancing itself even though hundreds of thousands of Armenians live in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Protests took place in Yerevan; protesters outside the Armenian government building demanded an immediate declaration of war on Azerbaijan, the return of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), and the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan, the government and the leadership of the Defense Ministry.
The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed alarm at the sharp escalation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Answering the question about how the Russian Federation evaluates the statement of the Prime Minister of Armenia that the Russian peacekeeping contingent did not cope with the task in Nagorno-Karabakh. They said that it is necessary to fulfill everything agreed upon, not to provoke the situation, to work to calm and resolve it, and to be responsible for fulfilling the obligations assumed. The Russian leadership claimed they were in contact with all parties, especially Azerbaijan, and favored a peaceful resolution.
By the end of the day, Nagorno-Karabakh called on Azerbaijan to stop the fire and begin negotiations. Azerbaijan voiced its condition for a ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations - complete disarmament and disbandment of the unrecognized republic. Otherwise, they promise to carry out "anti-terrorism measures."
As a result, the authorities of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh accepted the proposal of Russian peacekeepers for a ceasefire and disarmament. Issues with the Azerbaijani side on "reintegration" and ensuring the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will be discussed at a meeting in Yevlakh on September 21. According to agreements with the Russian side, hostilities must cease at 13:00 on September 20.
It is worth noting that all parties to the conflict behaved non-linearly. Russian peacekeepers were virtually inactive, and Armenia abandoned the fight for Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Armenian leadership (Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage) believe that the current attack on Nagorno-Karabakh is an element of the Russian plan and pressure on Armenia to force Armenia to request help and agree to the integration processes that Moscow is currently offering to Yerevan. Therefore, Armenia abandoned the defense of Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to its quick capitulation.
But suppose N. Pashinyan and his entourage are correct, and this is Moscow's attempt to punish Yerevan. In that case, there is a high probability that Azerbaijan's territorial claims to Armenia will be realized not only in terms of Karabakh but also concerning other territories, which could pose a critical threat to the existence of Armenian statehood itself.
Armenia will also face complex processes for arriving Karabakh refugees and internal protests with a patriotic sauce.
Ruslan Bortnik, Oksana Krasovskaya, Andrey Timchenko
for the Ukrainian Institute of Politics
