POLITICAL RESULTS OF 2021 FOR UKRAINE: POLITICS AND ECONOMY

POLITICAL RESULTS OF 2021 FOR UKRAINE: POLITICS AND ECONOMY

CONTENT:

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. "Tightening the nuts".

2. Splitting political elites and increasing confrontation within the political system of Ukraine.

3. Cooling down relations with Western partners.

4. Continuation of the sluggish conflict in the Donbass.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Weakening of American influence in the world.

2. US Cold War against China and Russia.

3. The crisis of international organizations and institutions.

ECONOMY.

1. Total fiscalization.

2. The failed energy policy of the Ukrainian authorities and the threat of an energy crisis.

3. Corporatization of state-owned enterprises and "big privatization".

Appendix # 1 - internal politics chronology of events.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. "Tightening the nuts".

 In 2021, the policy of the current authorities of Ukraine finally took shape towards “tightening the screws” - the desire to establish full control over all key and strategically important areas in the country by the Office of the President, the formation of an image of a “strong hand”, suppression and discrediting of the main political and economic competitors ... This trend began as the reaction of the President's Office to the electoral crisis. When, at the beginning of February 2021, the ratings of the authorities reached their minimum: about 20-22% for the president and from 15% to 22% for the Servant of the People. At this time, the President opened an internal front through the revitalization of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC). The latter became a tool that allowed the authorities to apply measures to influence opponents without a court decision. In February, the work of opposition TV channels was blocked: ZIK, NewsOne and 112 Ukraine, in December their receivers - Ukrlive and First Nezavisimy. Viktor Medvedchuk, one of the leaders of the "anti-Western" opposition and co-chairman of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, was placed under house arrest.

In March, the current government began a large redistribution of the Ukrainian subsoil use market. The NSDC introduced sanctions against 19 subsoil companies. The very fact of the introduction of these sanctions testifies to the absence of grounds for the seizure of company property in the framework of criminal proceedings.

Personnel rotations in the government this year were also held for the sake of increasing the influence of the president and his entourage in him. On May 18, the Verkhovna Rada dismissed three ministers at once: Minister of Infrastructure Vladislav Krikliy, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Igor Petrashko and Minister of Health Maxim Stepanov. In July, the Verkhovna Rada considered and accepted the resignation of Interior Minister Arsen Avakov.

In November, in order to establish more complete control of the OP over the work of the government and its main financial flows, personnel rotations took place in the Cabinet, affecting 1/3 of its composition. With the expectation that part of the socio-economic failures of power will be attributed to the dismissed ministers.

Another element of “tightening the screws” in the outgoing year is numerous searches and criminal proceedings against political opponents of the government, including the team of P. Poroshenko and V. Klitschko, who was considered by the OP for several months as a competitor in the upcoming presidential elections.

In the outgoing year, the Cabinet of Ministers approved a new Strategy for Information Security of Ukraine, which provides for the improvement of the regulatory framework in the field of information policy and determines the interaction of law enforcement agencies with local governments and public organizations. Thus, the state is trying to establish its total control over the main media resources of the country.

The head of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmitry Razumkov, was dismissed. The main reason for this personnel decision was that in this way the President's Office was trying to eliminate one of the rather strong potential competitors of V. Zelensky in the next presidential elections.

In December, the Office of the Prosecutor General signed a motion to arrest the fifth President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko. We are talking about a case for the purchase of coal from Donbass. The defendant in this case is Viktor Medvedchuk, who is under house arrest; and ex-energy minister Vladimir Demchishin and others. Poroshenko is considered in the OP as one of the main competitors, therefore this accusation is quite natural.

At the end of the year, the President of Ukraine ensured almost absolute control over the government of Ukraine and the security forces (this was not the case before A. Avakov's resignation), increased his influence on the judicial system, parliament and regional elites, increased pressure on opposition business and independent media.

The concentration of power in the hands of the President took place mainly under the slogans of "ensuring security", "countering the Russian Federation" and "fighting the oligarchs."

At the end of half of his tenure as head of state, V. Zelensky held a press conference against the backdrop of a number of scandals related to Wagnergate, investigations about the birthday of the head of the OP A. Yermak, the likelihood of a Russian invasion

and others. The President made it clear that any attempt to organize protests or continue an information attack on the authorities (whether by Rinat Akhmetov or someone else) will end in a sharp suppression and accusation of all those involved in treason / work for the Kremlin.

2. Splitting political elites and increasing confrontation within the political system of Ukraine.

In early November, V. Zelensky signed the so-called "anti-oligarchic" law, which can become a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team. By this law, the Office of the President pursues three main goals, the first of which is to obtain electoral points, the second is to imitate the fulfillment of the requirements of Western partners, and the third is to redistribute assets from “disloyal” representatives of big business to “loyal” ones. In turn, the promotion of such a policy led to a conflict between the president and the opposition political and economic elites. There is a consolidation of political and financial groups against V. Zelensky and his team.

In two and a half years, the president got rid of all the key figures that brought him to power or initially formed power with him - A. Bogdan, D. Razumkov, A. Avakov, etc. All these people are now opposed to the president.

R. Akhmetov, P. Poroshenko and V. Medvedchuk and other key political and economic players of the country were on one side in the political system of Ukraine - the anti-presidential one.

It is highly likely that representatives of big business and political circles dissatisfied with V. Zelensky's policies will unite around any opposition leaders who could defeat the incumbent president, and one of them may be D. Razumkov, V. Klitschko or unexpected leaders from the number of athletes , doctors, the military, and so on.

3. Cooling down relations with Western partners.

A difficult situation has developed around the implementation of reforms necessary for the West, in particular - judicial reform and corporate governance reform in state-owned companies. In general, Western partners have repeatedly criticized the Ukrainian authorities, which mainly concerned the fight against corruption and insufficiently prompt implementation of the requirements for reforms, violations of human rights associated with rampant radicalism.

International experts demand the earliest possible implementation of judicial reform according to their templates; real, not nominal, de-oligarchization; and the preservation of the influence of Western henchmen on the largest Ukrainian state corporations. The Ukrainian side, in turn, sabotages these demands and fulfills them in its own way.

This year, the start of judicial reform was launched, in connection with which the struggle for control over the Ukrainian judicial system between the OP and "Western partners" has intensified. Under these conditions, the "judicial corporation" started its game, desperately fighting for its existence and unwilling to become an instrument either in the hands of the President's Office or in the hands of the West.

In early March, the start of judicial reform was launched, in connection with which the struggle for control over the Ukrainian judicial system between the OP and "Western partners" intensified. V. Zelensky vetoes the law on restarting the VKKS, where the right of the decisive vote in the formation of the High Qualification Commission of Judges (VKKS) will belong to international experts. Ultimately, the OP hopes to share the influence on the judicial system with Western partners, pushing out of it the previous groups of influence of Petro Poroshenko.

In the future, the Council of Judges was unable to elect three members of the Ethics Council, who should control the virtue of the members of the High Council of Justice, which blocked the main part of the judicial reform.

The Office of the President does not abandon attempts to replace A. Sytnik as director of NABU. In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers dismissed Andriy Kobolev from the post of head of the board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine. The government is also considering options for reformatting and weakening all supervisory boards at state-owned companies, which could further weaken the influence of European and American partners.

With the strengthening of the confrontation between V. Zelesky, Western partners, and the judiciary for influence on the judicial system, the constitutional crisis is intensifying in the country. With the aim of exerting pressure on A. Tupitsky and forcing him to voluntarily leave his post, criminal cases against the removed head of the Constitutional Court will multiply. And at the end of the year, the United States will impose sanctions against A. Tupitsky.

        In November, the Ukrainian government takes on new obligations to the International Monetary Fund, which exacerbate the dependence of the domestic banking system and the social security system on Western creditors. The appointment of the head of the SAP until December 2021 is one of the structural beacons of Ukraine's memorandum with the IMF. At the same time, this process continues to be delayed, and on December 24, the commission again did not approve the winner of the competition for the post of head of the SAP.

    Throughout the year, there was a series of waves of discrediting V. Zelensky and his entourage by Western media. In particular, leading Western media are active

but they wrote about the role of Vladimir Zelensky in the "Pandora dossier", which reveals the offshore schemes of high-ranking politicians and officials of a number of states. In the future, within the framework of the same trend, several more waves of discrediting arise, in particular, the investigation of the Schemes about how Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from the Kurchenko bank, New investigation from Radio Liberty on Wagnergate, etc. In particular, in November Bellingcat published a full investigation into the likely disruption of the Wagner operation. This circumstance testifies to the dissatisfaction of the EU and US representatives with the sabotage of reforms in Ukraine aimed at strengthening external dependence.

4. Continuation of the sluggish conflict in the Donbass.

Against the background of the lack of progress in the political part of the peaceful settlement in Donbass, as well as the growing geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, the situation in the zone of the armed conflict is in a state of constant tension.

In September, the UN noted that the total number of deaths and injuries was 51% higher than in the previous six months. In general, for the period of the conflict, the total number of victims of hostilities in Donbass, according to the UN, in the period from April 14, 2014 to June 30, 2021, is 42, 5-44, 5 thousand people. Among them: 13,200-13,400 dead (at least 3,901 civilians, about 4,200 Ukrainian soldiers and about 5,800 members of armed groups). 29600-33600 wounded (7000-9000 civilians, 9800-10800 Ukrainian military and 12800-13800 members of armed groups).

In the context of the deadlocked process of the peaceful settlement of the conflict in Donbass, representatives of Ukraine (in the person of Leonid Kravchuk) declared their unwillingness to implement the Minsk agreements and questioned the need to reintegrate the uncontrolled territories. In essence, such statements indicate the inability and unwillingness of the current government to solve the problem of a peaceful settlement in Donbass and the reintegration of uncontrolled territories. The processes of formation in public opinion of the position of the unreality of the implementation of the Minsk agreements continue. Given that all the formats of the Donbas settlement are nominally preserved. In particular, in December, the Verkhovna Rada nevertheless extended the law on the operation of the law of Ukraine on a special procedure for local self-government in certain areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. The document did not include the "Steinmeier formula," which they pledged to enshrine in legislation following the Normandy Four summit in December 2019.

At the same time, V. Zelensky makes statements about the possible holding of a referendum on the implementation of the Minsk agreements. That there is a signal to external partners, and not to put pressure on the internal opposition. The referendum would help the president to justify himself, citing the opinion of the citizens.

 Due to the irreconcilable position of the parties, the negotiations in the Normandy Four format have been devoid of any progress. There are suggestions that the "Normandy format" can be revived at the expense of a new participant - the United States. For the Western participants of the "Normandy format", as well as for Ukraine, only the very fact of the meeting is important, which makes it possible to declare that the negotiation process exists and has a certain dynamics.

For its part, Moscow is ready to recognize the Americans as participants in the "Normandy format" if they do not sabotage the Minsk agreements. At the same time, Russia notes that negotiations in the "Normandy format" will become possible only after Kiev fulfills all the agreements on the Minsk agreements. In addition, if a law on a transitional period is adopted, it will mean that Ukraine has withdrawn from the negotiations.

All this is happening against the backdrop of an intensification of the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and the Russian Federation in Eastern Europe, which increases the risks that the settlement of the armed conflict in Donbass will take place without the participation of the Ukrainian side (whether in the format of Russian-American agreements, or direct military intervention of the Russian Federation).

     Another talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin. They never brought a full-fledged "detente" between the parties. The situation remains extremely tense: the United States continues to declare the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia - about Kiev's intention to return the uncontrolled territories of Donbass by force.

      At the end of the year, the Russian Foreign Ministry published a strategic proposal of Russia to the United States and NATO on mutual security guarantees. Moscow firmly intends to protect itself from the threats associated with the expansion of the NATO bloc and its military infrastructure to the East in recent decades for the Russian Federation. Considering that the American side is unlikely to agree to give Russia the guarantees it requires, in the foreseeable future one should expect further militarization of Eastern Europe and an intensification of the Russian-American confrontation in the region. Russia's proposals and ultimatums to Western countries are also a signal to the Ukrainian leadership that in the event of Ukraine's rapprochement with NATO, Russia can take radical measures.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Weakening of American influence in the world.

This year, the collapse of the unipolar system of international relations became obvious even for those who, for political reasons, did not notice it for a long time.

An eloquent testimony to this thesis was the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in August, accompanied by a humanitarian catastrophe and, in fact, a shameful flight. Videos with local American allies clinging to the landing gear of military aircraft and crashing after falling from a height will surely remain a sad reminder for many years to come to all those foreigners who decide to link their fate to defending the geopolitical interests of the United States abroad. Yesterday's superpower was defeated by the guerrilla army of the religious fundamentalist Taliban.

Early next year, the White House is preparing to withdraw its troops from Iraq. Even if he does not repeat the Afghan shame, this event will become another link in the chain of curtailing the American presence in the "Greater Middle East".

At the same time, in South America, traditionally considered the "backyard" of the United States, socialist, anti-American governments came to power. In December of the outgoing year, the socialist won the presidential elections in Chile (for the first time since the time of Salvador Allende). Prior to this, in November 2020, the socialists returned to power in Bolivia, through legal elections, overthrowing the pro-American neoliberal junta, which illegally held power for about a year. In Venezuela, the socialist regime of Nicholas Maduro manages to retain power, despite all attempts to organize a coup, riots and terrorist activity, relying on the "president in exile" Juan Guaido, continuing for two years.

Against the background of the above-described weakening of American influence in various regions, the United States is concentrating its foreign policy efforts on two main theaters of geopolitical confrontation - in Eastern Europe against Russia and in Southeast Asia against China.

The culmination of the reduction of American influence in the international arena in the outgoing year can be considered the statement made in early November by the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Mark Milli, that the world has become three-polar and its poles - the United States, the Russian Federation and the PRC.

In the future, the role of the United States in the international arena will continue to decline, while the role of the PRC and the Russian Federation will grow.

2. US Cold War against China and Russia.

In 2021, the "new Cold War" of the United States against China and Russia continued and acquired a new dimension.

As part of it, on September 15, a new military-political bloc AUUKUS was created in Southeast Asia, which included the United States, Great Britain and Australia. The QUAD initiative is also developing, in which, in addition to the United States and Australia, India and Japan are participants. With the help of these projects, Washington is trying to create a semblance of an Asian NATO to counter China in the main zone of its military-political and economic expansion.

True, due to local specifics, the United States is unlikely to be able to create from the countries of the region an analogue of NATO, completely controlled from Washington. The political culture and traditions of the countries of Southeast Asia suggest more flexibility and a tendency to negotiate than is customary in Europe. The correctness of this thesis is eloquently evidenced by the policy of India, which, as a member of QUAD, builds constructive relations with Russia and even concludes new large-scale contracts for the supply of arms with it (as was the case on December 6, during a recent visit to New Delhi by Vladimir Putin).

In Eastern Europe, the US-Russian confrontation has escalated to the limit in recent months. The prospect of the deployment of American nuclear weapons in Poland and Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus looks quite real today. The region is being militarized.

Having put forward in December demands for guarantees that NATO would not expand to the East and for a return to the situation with the deployment of American weapons, which took place in 1997, Moscow raised the stakes to the limit. The United States cannot agree to these demands, and having received a refusal, Russia will have to take some tough action. Possible options for such action include the deployment of Russian weapons close to US borders, or a military escalation in Ukraine.

Having a common geopolitical adversary, Moscow and Beijing have been actively building up cooperation throughout the current year. This applied to both the military and military-technical sphere, and the sphere of high technologies, as evidenced by the intention of the Russian Federation and the PRC to develop and launch a joint analogue of the SWIFT interbank payment system, which was announced in early December. If this idea is implemented, the Russian Federation and China will become much less vulnerable to US sanctions.

3. The crisis of international organizations and institutions.

With the transition to a three-polar world, the crisis of international organizations as platforms for conducting multilateral diplomacy is becoming more and more obvious.

First of all, we are talking here about the United Nations. Being built within the framework of the system of international

wearing (bipolar, Yalta-Potsdam), in fact, the UN lost its original meaning back in 1991. However, during the period of unipolarity and American hegemony, Washington did not take measures to reorganize it. This was simply not necessary, since the UN did not influence the real political processes in any way, but at the same time, in the best traditions of the "democratic theater", played the role of a platform for imitating actions to resolve various international problems.

With the collapse of the unipolar system of international relations and the establishment of a three-polar system, it became obvious that the only effective way to resolve conflicts and disputes, as well as to solve economic problems within it, are bilateral and multilateral agreements.

It was in the format of such agreements that the second Karabakh war ended at the end of 2020. With the help of similar agreements, for about a year now, two international coalitions have been trying to resolve the conflict between their proxies in Libya.

Bilateral and multilateral agreements are also relevant in the issue of harmonizing anti-epidemic measures (for example, mutual recognition of vaccination certificates and the establishment of a border crossing regime in a pandemic). The World Health Organization, which continually issues conflicting conclusions and recommendations regarding the fight against COVID-19, is unable to cope with this task. Partly, this is due to her lack of powers to coerce states to a certain model of response to pandemic threats, and partly - the low competence of the organization's functionaries and their focus on bureaucratic tasks, rather than responding to threats in an emergency.

The quintessence of attempts to resolve international political problems in the course of bilateral negotiations is a series of meetings scheduled for January 2022 between Russian and American representatives to discuss Moscow's security requirements. Whatever its outcome, the fact that negotiations were held in this format (and not in the UN Security Council, for example) testifies to the fact that it is much easier to come to an agreement than through the cumbersome bureaucratic apparatus and procedural red tape of international organizations.

It is possible that in the future international organizations and institutions will experience a renaissance. However, this will happen only when the boundaries of the spheres of influence in the new three-polar world are finally drawn and the centers of power will face the task of documenting them with subsequent institutional control over their observance. However, in the current conditions it is too early to talk about this.

ECONOMY.

1. Total fiscalization.

In 2021, the Ukrainian government launched the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB), which was supposed to fight economic crimes, but by the end of the year, this structure did not even receive its own building or premises for use. BEB runs the risk of repeating the fate of NABU in terms of its effectiveness, although it was originally planned that this structure would correct the situation with the low efficiency of NABU.

The authorities have criminalized Article 212 of the Criminal Code (tax evasion), i.e., made this crime a criminal offense. Algorithms for calculating the hidden employment of people by enterprises on indirect grounds will also be introduced.

During the year, taxation and fines were increased for large businesses, including the enterprises of businessman R. Akhmetov. Checks have become more frequent at other large enterprises such as ArcelorMittal, as well as thermal power plants associated with K. Zhevago.

On September 1, 2021, the so-called "tax amnesty" was launched, which led to extremely modest results in terms of the number of entrepreneurs who applied for participation.

From September 2022, when buying real estate or a car, citizens will be required to explain the origin of funds or pay an 18 percent tax on them.

Banks began to limit the number of transactions between bank cards as part of the "fight against the shadow economy."

Additional taxes are imposed on pet owners and penalties for mishandling are increased.

The increase in tariffs is, de facto, one of the methods of indirect additional taxation of the population.

From January 1, 2022, an additional 150 thousand small entrepreneurs will be required to use cash registers.

Law 5600 raised a number of taxes. In particular, he taxed owners of agricultural land from 0.5 hectares. This tax is unconstitutional, since it implies the need to pay for the ownership of privatized land, regardless of its use or non-use as a means of commodity production, which violates the sacred and inviolable right of private property enshrined in the Constitution.

The purpose of all the above measures taken by the authorities is to obtain funds to compensate for the budget deficit and return external borrowings at the expense of the population.

At the end of 2021, a new memorandum was written between Ukraine and the IMF, where the organization presented to Ukraine a list of 12 "beacons" (and in fact - requirements) for further cooperation. The original text in English was written very carefully and diplomatically, but the Ukrainian response to the IMF memorandum had already committed to remove any regulation of gas prices for the population.

The largest item of expenditure (40%) of the state budget for 2022 is the repayment and servicing of debts to the IMF. Thus, the trend towards total fiscalization, as well as the liberalization of gas prices for the population, serve a single purpose - to fill the budget in order to further repay and service debts to the IMF.

2. The failed energy policy of the Ukrainian authorities and the threat of an energy crisis.

Since the summer of 2021, two-thirds of all Ukrainian thermal power plants have been at various stages of reconstruction and repair, while having coal reserves that are many times less than the recommended ones. As of mid-autumn and the beginning of the heating season, the authorities were forced to start purchasing coal from abroad and delivering it by sea. At many TPPs, by December 2021, there is ten times less coal left than is necessary for the heating season.

In December of the outgoing year, the Cabinet of Ministers ordered the use of gas instead of coal at some thermal power plants, due to the lack of the latter.

The current government did not prepare for the risk of interrupting the transit of Russian gas after the launch of Nord Stream 2 through the Ukrainian GTS, suggesting either transferring the GTS to hydrogen instead of natural gas, or launching the biogas market. Both are completely unrealistic in the current environment.

Some Ukrainian nuclear power plants operate at 100% or more of their nominal capacity in the face of coal shortages at TPPs.

All of the above creates increased risks for the current heating season.

3. Corporatization of state-owned enterprises and "big privatization".

In 2021, a course was set for the privatization of PrivatBank and Oschadbank, which has not yet been possible due to the general low attractiveness of the Ukrainian economy due to the continuation of the armed conflict in Donbass.

In December 2021, the state concern Ukroboronprom turned into a joint stock company. The director of the enterprise spoke at the beginning of the year about the need to make Ukroboronprom a profitable enterprise.

Within the framework of the “big privatization”, two seaports of Ukraine were prepared for sale, and the ground for the corporatization of Energoatom is also being prepared. An auction was set for the sale of the United Mining and Chemical Company (OGCC), despite the absence of solvent and interested buyers. The winner of the privatization auction "Electronmash" delayed the signing of the agreement on the purchase and sale of the enterprise. At the same time, the state regained control over the titanium-magnesium plant owned by D. Firtash. It is also planned to privatize water utilities for the opening of a market for agricultural land for foreigners in 2024.

The above processes are considered by the current government as one of the means of attracting finance to repay external borrowings and compensate for the budget deficit, along with the policy of total fiscalization. At the same time, individual political and financial-industrial groups seek to derive as much personal benefit from the “big privatization” as possible, buying up enterprises that are national treasures at a low price.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

Appendix # 1 - internal politics chronology of events.

February 2, 2021 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council on the introduction of personal sanctions against the People's Deputy from the OLE Taras Kozak. In view of the approval of restrictive measures against the owner, a number of enterprises of the Novosti media holding, which include the opposition TV channels ZIK, NewsOne and 112 Ukraine, were also sanctioned. TV channels stopped broadcasting. In the West, such actions are approved, as they fear a "pro-Russian revenge" in Ukraine and its potential withdrawal from the American sphere of influence.

Power ratings: At the beginning of February 2021, the ratings of the power team reached their minimum: about 20-22% for the president and from 15% to 22% for the "Servant of the People". The drop in the ratings of the President and his party occurred against the backdrop of unfulfilled promises and an overflow of the electorate to the opposition. In addition, gas tariffs rose significantly in early 2021, sparking protests across the country. In turn, the authorities are trying to stabilize the ratings by suppressing dissent, in particular by imposing sanctions against opposition TV channels. At this time, the President opens an internal front - the main efforts are aimed at strengthening the power of the Office of the President and suppressing the main political and economic competitors. Numerous searches and criminal proceedings begin against the team of Vitali Klitschko, whom the OP is considered as the main company.

As a competitor in the upcoming presidential elections, in addition, he prevented the president's team from establishing itself in Kiev.

February 10, 2021 The European Parliament approved a resolution on Ukraine's implementation of the Association Agreement. The document contains rather harsh criticism of the Ukrainian side. It concerns mainly issues of corruption, insufficient prompt fulfillment of the requirements of Western creditors to reform the judicial system, and violations of human rights associated with rampant radicalism. These statements reflect the main intention of Ukraine's international creditors to force Kiev to reform the judicial system with the involvement of “international experts” in the judicial approval process.

 In February-March 2021 The Office of the President does not abandon attempts to replace A. Sytnik as director of NABU. As part of this approach, the Cabinet of Ministers registered a new bill on the dismissal of A. Sytnik. Another attempt to replace the head of NABU A. Sytnik can be considered within the framework of the desire of the President's Office to establish its control over the maximum number of government structures and law enforcement agencies, minimizing the influence of international partners on them as much as possible, who seek to maintain control over the “anti-corruption vertical”.

February 15-17, 2021 Within the framework of the all-Ukrainian forum Ukraine 30, a discussion was held on tariffs for utilities and energy independence. Another attempt to explain the increase in utility tariffs, which is destructive for the ratings of the authorities, with a manipulative statement that it was a direct consequence of the loss of control over Crimea and Donbass. In fact, the increase in tariffs is associated with the need to repay IMF loans and obtain new loans from this organization. In a memorandum with the IMF, Ukraine has undertaken obligations on "market tariff setting" in the natural gas market. And the Fund expressed its concern3 about the Government's intention to reduce gas prices for residential consumers following the recent “tariff protests”.

February 23, 2021 The Odessa court in the case of kidnapping and torture of a person appointed the ex-leader of the Odessa "Right Sector" Sergei Sternenko and his associate Ruslan Demchuk to 7 years and 3 months in prison with confiscation of half of the property. Syarhei Sternenko's supporters gathered protest actions, escalating pressure on the courts and the President's Office. The aim was to get the conviction overturned on appeal, as well as to demonstrate to the authorities that an attempt to prosecute nationalists would be accompanied by serious street pressure. Since the verdict according to S. Sternenko means a precedent for every "activist" who has gone beyond the law. In order to reduce the pressure from the nationalist and liberal "street" after the verdict of Sergei Sternenko, the President's Office initiated the creation of a mechanism for analyzing court decisions against war veterans in the Donbas and public figures.

At the end of February at the beginning of March 2021. Against the background of the lack of progress in the political part of the peaceful settlement in Donbass, as well as the growing geopolitical confrontation between the West and Russia, the situation in the zone of the armed conflict is aggravated. A limiting factor is the fact that the parties to the conflict are trying to win public opinion, preserve their international reputation and international economic projects. None of the participants in the negotiations wants to be guilty in the eyes of the world community for the disruption of the Minsk agreements. Therefore, opponents actively accuse each other of breaking the truce. In early April, Russian troops set up a large camp near the Ukrainian border.

March 2, 2021 The US State Department has introduced new sanctions against Russia related to the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Russian authorities. The first restrictions imposed by the United States against Russia under the new President Joseph Biden should be seen as a rather symbolic gesture and a soft start on a new round of US-Russian relations.

 At the beginning of March 2021. the start of judicial reform has been given, in connection with which the struggle for control over the Ukrainian judicial system between the OP and "Western partners" has intensified. In the parliament, in the first reading, the law “On Amendments to the Law of Ukraine“ On the Judicial System and the Status of Judges ”and some laws of Ukraine regarding the resumption of the work of the High Qualification Commission of Judges of Ukraine” is adopted, which does not quite suit international partners.

March 17, 2021 A bipartisan group of US Senators introduced the Ukraine Security Partnership Act, which provides for security assistance and strategic support. From which it follows that the United States during the reign of D. Biden intends to significantly intensify its policy in the Ukrainian direction.

March 19, 2021 NSDC Secretary Aleksey Danilov announced the introduction of sanctions against 19 subsoil companies. The very fact of the imposition of sanctions

against the listed companies indicates that there is no reason to seize property in the framework of criminal proceedings. The described sanctions fit into the trend, within which the current government plans a large redistribution of the Ukrainian subsoil use market. Most likely, it will be carried out in favor of transnational companies or the President's entourage.

March 27, 2021 V. Zelensky canceled the 2013 decrees of ex-President Viktor Yanukovych on the appointment of A. Tupitsky and A. Kasminin as judges of the Constitutional Court. Having fired two judges of the Constitutional Court, the President hopes to informally subordinate him to himself, so that in the future he will not receive the repeal of the laws he is promoting through the mechanism of filing claims about their unconstitutionality in the Constitutional Court. After new judges are appointed to replace the dismissed judges under the presidential quota, the risk of the Constitutional Court adopting decisions not coordinated with the president will significantly decrease. In the future, with the aim of exerting pressure on A. Tupitsky and forcing him to voluntarily leave his post, criminal cases against the removed head of the KSU will multiply.

April 2, 2021 the first telephone conversation between Vladimir Zelensky and US President Joseph Biden took place.

Based on the results of the conversation, it can be assumed that as a result of this introductory conversation, V. Zelensky received symbolic situational support from D. Biden and his administration, and also assumed certain obligations regarding the fight against corruption, reforms and de-oligarchization. Therefore, this conversation politically strengthens V. Zelensky, but it can aggravate the crisis of his relations with key Ukrainian financial and political groups, depriving him of some of his influence on the anti-corruption, judicial and banking systems. As for the American side, for it this conversation was also a "reconciliation of positions" on Donbass, which in the United States is perceived as one of the priority regions in the issue of geopolitical containment of Russia.

April 23, 2021 the withdrawal of troops from the borders with Ukraine began. Despite the fact that within the country the Ukrainian authorities are trying to present the withdrawal of Russian troops as their victory, it is worth noting that the risks of escalating the conflict remain the same. Despite the fact that there was no threat of a full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia. There was a fact of political pressure, as a result of which the Russian side received its points in the form of a call from Joe Biden, the intensification of the Russian-European dialogue and confirmation of the completion of the SP-2, an agreement was reached on holding a US-Russian summit, as well as some guarantees that Ukraine would not will conduct a military operation against the "LPNR". At the same time, the level of tension on the contact line has not decreased, and de-escalation has not been achieved. Since the withdrawal of Russian troops was not accompanied by any specific agreements, and the crisis of a peaceful settlement itself continues.

Power ratings: By concentrating control over the main information flows, until the summer of 2021. V. Zelensky manages to stabilize ratings and maintain a leading position. For the most part, this is due to the fact that the President partially satisfied the public's request for a “strong hand”. The activities of the NSDC with a quick reprisal were initially perceived by society positively, as a transfer of power to the implementation of the "promised landings" and fair trials, but in reality nothing of the kind happened. From April 2021 V. Zelensky's presidential rating increased by almost 6% and amounted to 30% -32%. While the rating of his trust remained negative, and since March 2021. has not changed significantly.

In connection with the loss of information resources, there was a significant decrease in the ratings of the competitors of the anti-Western opposition - Y. Boyk and "OPZH". But even then it was clear that if the authorities did not begin to implement the basic needs of society, the situation could change by the fall.

From mid-spring to early summer, there have been no significant changes in the party rating of the Servant of the People. The rating of the pro-government party is no longer showing growth - this can be seen from the results of three sociological studies at once. But the Servant of the People party still retains the party leadership with the result from 20% to 25%.

April 28, 2021 The Cabinet of Ministers dismissed Andriy Kobolev from the post of head of the board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine. Thus, a confrontation has emerged between the Office of the President and external players for control over the main state-owned enterprises of Ukraine, as well as the energy system. Within the framework of this trend, a new Energy Minister German Galushchenko was also appointed. The new personnel reshuffle does not entirely suit the Western partners, since they can reduce their influence on the Ukrainian energy system. The government is also considering options for reformatting and weakening all supervisory boards at state-owned companies, which could further weaken the influence of European and American partners.

April 28, 2021 The Verkhovna Rada adopted Law No. 2194 "On Amendments to the Land Code of Ukraine and other laws

detailed acts to improve the management and deregulation system in the sphere of land relations. ”Land legislation turned out to be spelled out in such a way that it leaves a lot of loopholes for buying and concentrating land in the hands of banks, foreign individuals and legal entities, and large Ukrainian agricultural holdings. in a way that maximizes the benefits of large players rather than small and medium-sized farms.

May 6, 2021 the visit of the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and his Deputy Victoria Nuland to Kiev. American officials held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, heads of parliamentary factions, and also Prime Minister Denis Shmygal. The visit of the State Department delegation to Kiev once again revealed a number of contradictions that exist between the American side and the current Ukrainian government. In particular, the Americans demand an early implementation of judicial reform according to their patterns, real, and not nominal, deoligarchization, and the preservation of the influence of the West's proteges on the largest Ukrainian state corporations. The Ukrainian side, in turn, sabotages these demands and fulfills them in its own way.

May 11, 2021 Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova signed a suspicion of treason and attempted plundering of national resources to the head of the political council of the Opposition Platform - For Life party Viktor Medvedchuk and People's Deputy from the Opposition Society Taras Kozak. The signing of the suspicion had several main reasons. The first of them consists in the need to “retroactively” justify the sanctions imposed by the NSDC against these politicians in February from a legal point of view. The second reason is the desire of the authorities to demonstrate to their American partners the fulfillment of the demand for "deoligarchization", the preservation of a pro-Western political course, but at the same time not offend either the "shareholders" of the "Servant of the People", or large businessmen enjoying the political support of the United States. The motives are also attempts to discredit the HLE in the eyes of the voter and to convey signals to the Russian leadership.

May 18, 2021 The Verkhovna Rada dismissed three ministers at once: Minister of Infrastructure Vladislav Krikliya, Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture Igor Petrashko and Minister of Health Maxim Stepanov. These personnel reshuffles in ministries are the strengthening of the positions of some political groups of influence and the weakening of others. As we wrote earlier, the president is trying to strengthen his own positions within the government with people loyal to himself. Additionally, it is the control of financial flows. The appointment of the Minister of Health Viktor Lyashko to a strategically important position is an attempt by the authorities to satisfy Western partners and balance the appointment of their people to economically attractive directions.

Power ratings: The second year of V. Zelensky's rule was considered unsatisfactory or terrible by the majority of citizens of Ukraine - 42%; the opposite opinion was held by about a third of the respondents -34%. Already in June, the ratings of the authorities begin to gradually sink - the President and Servant of the People are losing about 3% of electoral support.

June 2, 2021 V. Zelensky submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law on de-oligarchization. By this law, the Office of the President pursues three main goals, the first of which is to obtain electoral points, the second is to imitate the fulfillment of the requirements of Western partners, and the third is to redistribute assets from “disloyal” representatives of big business to “loyal” ones.

June 3, 2021 President V. Zelensky took part in a meeting of the Chamber of Local Authorities of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities under the head of state. This is Bankova's attempt to build relationships with local elites within the framework of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. This is being done not only to strengthen the vertical of power, but also to prevent the "alliance of mayors" under the auspices of the capital's mayor Vitali Klitschko.

June 7, 2021 Joe Biden had a telephone conversation with Vladimir Zelensky. For the President of Ukraine, the conversation with the US leader acts as a kind of necessary external legitimation. As for the foreign policy reasons why D. Biden called V. Zelensky and made an appointment with him, they are quite simple. Ukraine serves as a relatively cheap and reliable tool for the United States to put pressure on Russia. By calling Kiev, Biden made it clear to his Russian counterpart that this instrument could be used by Washington at any time.

June 16, 2021 Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin met in Geneva. On the whole, it can be stated that the main result of this meeting was the confirmation of the intentions of the United States and the Russian Federation to establish certain "limits of what is permissible", beyond which both sides do not intend to go in the process of a new "Cold War". Obviously, the system of arms control agreements will act as such a “framework”. In Ukraine, no agreements were reached, due to the fundamental difference in the positions of the parties.

June 29, 2021 within the trend of confrontation between the Office of the President and external players for influence

impact on the country's judicial system, the parliament adopted a draft law on judicial reform, taking into account the amendment providing that the right of a decisive vote in the formation of the High Qualification Commission of Judges (HQC) will belong to international experts. But on July 8, V. Zelensky vetoed the law on restarting the VKKS. Which means that Bankova is not going to completely surrender control over the judicial system to external players, realizing that in this case the current government is unlikely to be able to manage the processes in the country. On the other hand, it is extremely important for the President's Office to maintain the support of the West, especially before V. Zelensky's visit to the United States. Ultimately, the OP hopes to share the influence on the judicial system with Western partners, pushing out of it the previous groups of influence of Petro Poroshenko.

On July 1, 2021, the opening of the land market in Ukraine officially started.

Power ratings: In July, a poll from the KIIS showed that the overwhelming majority of citizens oppose the opening of the land market and do not take seriously the President's legislative initiative on de-oligarchization.

74.9% of citizens would support a ban on the sale of agricultural land, and 56.4% believe that the law on de-oligarchization is not a threat to oligarchs.

At the same time, even then the activities of the President were disapproved by -52.7% of the respondents, and the activities of V. Zelensky were approved by 34.1%.

At the end of July, KIIS published a study, the results of which indicate that the majority of the population is critical of the current government and does not approve of the President's actions -56%. As before, the problems of peace, corruption, living standards, and high tariffs remain especially acute for society. The war in Donbass is considered by 63.9% of citizens to be in the top 3, and 27.9% are considered the most important problem. 82.5% - do not agree that the increase in tariffs is due to objective reasons, and not a desire to cash in on the population. Also, 83.7% of respondents do not agree that the mechanism for the formation of utility tariffs is transparent. At the same time, the effect of the applied measures of suppression and discrediting in relation to the main political opponents is becoming less and less. The ratings of OPZZH (18.3%) and Batkivshchyna (16%) are growing, and the rating of the former is actually on par with Servant of the People (20.2%). For comparison, the rating of "HLE" at the beginning of June was, according to KIIS, only - 14.7%. As a result, Servant of the People found themselves on the brink of losing their party leadership. Subsequently, the situation for the ruling team worsened in the fall, when the problem of raising tariffs for housing and communal services arose.

At the end of July, a poll from Rating showed that 29% of Ukrainian society would not vote for V. Zelensky under any circumstances, since the beginning of the month this number has increased by 2%.

July 14, 2021 it became known that the Supreme Court declared illegal and canceled the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky, with which he dismissed Alexander Tupitsky from the post of head of the Constitutional Court. In the future, this can undermine the entire management model built by the president, in particular, a number of decisions regarding the KSU and decisions of the NSDC. The unpleasant for the president defeat from the Supreme Court according to A. Tupitsky is informationally “interrupted” by the decision of the Constitutional Court in favor of the OP on the language law.

July 14, 2021 The Constitutional Court recognized the Law "On ensuring the functioning of the Ukrainian language as the state language" complying with the Constitution of Ukraine. We have to admit that the Constitutional Court makes decisions on the basis of political bias. The gross violations of the regulations do not prevent the current language law from being constitutional. Apart from the issue of the legality of such a decision without judges Tupitsky and Kasminin.

July 15, 2021 The Verkhovna Rada considered and accepted the resignation of the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov. The main initiator of the resignation of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is considered the head of the President's Office A. Yermak. The figure of A. Avakov did not suit the OP for a long time. For all his demonstrative loyalty, he was seen as too independent a figure. But the resignation of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs was postponed, because there were fears that without A. Avakov it would not be possible to maintain control over street protests and, in particular, radicals who periodically create crises for Bankova. The change of the Minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs provoked a major purge of personnel in the structures of the National Police.

In August 2021. Relations between the Office of the President and V. Klitschko are beginning to heat up. Almost every day there are searches of utilities or structures associated with V. Klitschko. The main reason for this is the presidential ambitions of the mayor of Kiev. For his part, V. Klitschko strongly criticizes the Office of the President and fights with them for a moderately nationalist electorate. They also compete for influence over regional elites.

August 15, 2021 Mayor of Krivoy Rog Konstantin Pavlov, a member of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, was found dead in his own country house. In Krivoy Rog are located large metallurgical enterprises of PJSC "ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih", Severny, Yuzhny, Inguletsky and Central GOK, CJSC "Sukha Ball

ka ", OJSC" Kryvyi Rih Iron Ore Plant "and others. This city concentrates significant economic interests of several Ukrainian economic groups, fiercely competing with each other. These are the spheres of activity of the oligarchs Rinat Akhmetov and Igor Kolomoisky. , who was supposed to act as mayor of Kryvyi Rih, will resign, since he was called interested in the death of K. Pavlov. And thus the team of V. Zelensky will again lose control over the president's hometown. Duties of the mayor of Krivoy Rog instead of the deceased Konstantin Pavlov before the appointment the new elections will be temporarily performed by the deputy from the Ukrainian Perspective party, the former mayor of the city, Yuriy Vilkul.

August 19, 2021 The Grand Chamber of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine satisfied the application of I. O. the head of the Constitutional Court Sergei Golovaty on self-recusal, questioning all the decisions made by the court in this composition. In this regard, the crisis of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine has reached a new level. During this time, the Constitutional Court made two decisions - on the law on the Ukrainian language and on remuneration. Thus, these two decisions were adopted by the incompetent composition of the Constitutional Court and are illegitimate.

August 22, 2021 German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Kiev. Given that she will leave office after the September elections to the Bundestag, this is her last visit to the Ukrainian capital as chancellor. the results of Angela Merkel's visit to Kiev were quite expected. Since she failed to reach agreements with Putin on the future of gas transit through Ukraine, during negotiations with Volodymyr Zelensky, she raised the topic of the "Normandy format" and a peaceful settlement in Donbass, which has long come to a standstill. At the same time, it should be noted that the Germans are more and more actively imposing on Kiev the need to "switch to green energy". Considering that such energy is several times more expensive than that generated by a more traditional method, its introduction in Ukraine threatens V. Zelensky with a complete rating collapse due to the rise in electricity prices.

August 23, 2021 The summit of the Crimean platform took place. The President tried to show that holding this event means not just shifts, but tectonic shifts. At the beginning of the summit, he suggested that "the de-occupation of Crimea began on 23 August." As a result of the "platform", the parties signed a general statement of the summit. According to which the National Office of the Crimean Platform is being created in Ukraine. The participants of the event "expect the return of the uncontrolled territories of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol to Ukraine." The signatories agreed "to consider the introduction of further political, diplomatic and restrictive measures against the Russian Federation, if this is provided for by the legal system of each participant of the Platform" and "if Russia's actions require it." In total, the summit was attended by representatives of 46 countries and international organizations, including all countries of the European Union, 14 of them - at the level of heads of state and government. The European Council was represented by President Charles Michel.

August 24, 2021 Independence Day served as a good reason for Bankova to carry out a large-scale PR campaign, demonstrating the power of the current government to society and opponents. The parliament adopted in the first reading the presidential draft law on the large state emblem of Ukraine, which is also used for PR purposes. In the domestic policy of the country, the general course of administrative, economic and informational strengthening of the power of the president and his entourage continues.

On September 1, 2021, V. Zelensky met with US President Joe Biden in Washington. This meeting and the absence of criticism at it of the position and entourage of V. Zelensky became a sign of US support for the ambiguous actions of the Ukrainian President in relation to the media, political opponents, and economic assets. At the same time, in the future, with regard to Ukraine, the United States will largely rely on its European allies, in fact, neither Ukraine nor V. Zelensky received any significant guarantees of a political, economic or military nature.

Power ratings: In early September According to the results of the rating, it is clear that V. Zelensky's visit to the United States, a meeting with Joe Biden, as well as the events held on Independence Day had a positive effect on the ratings of the authorities.

In general, 48% of the respondents assessed it as a successful visit of President V. Zelensky to the United States of America.

And among the official events for the Independence Day, the respondents rated the military parade in Kiev best - 44%.

The holding of the "Crimean Platform" (according to the "Rating") was positively assessed - 50%.

As a result, V. Zelensky's rating rose to 31 - 33%. A poll from Rating showed that the balance of confidence in the president has increased by 9% since July. V. Zelensky is trusted by 50% of the respondents, and not trusted by 48%; the balance becomes positive (+ 2%). But the effect of such methods was short-lived.

It should be noted that the rating of "Servants of the People" remained stable and despite

the efforts made did not actually show significant growth - 25.8% (according to the "Rating"). In comparison with the survey conducted by "Rating" at the end of July 2021. the party's rating changed within the margin of error (+ 1.7%).

September 13, 2021 The Council of Judges was unable to elect three members of the Ethics Council, who should control the virtue of the members of the High Council of Justice, which blocked the main part of the judicial reform. In general, the judicial reform envisages the transfer of key powers for the selection of members of the two bodies that govern the courts - the High Council of Justice and the High Qualification Commission of Judges - into the hands of “international experts”. Despite the external demonstration of readiness to carry out judicial reform according to the Western model, the Ukrainian authorities and the judiciary are not interested in such a scenario, therefore they are in no hurry to completely surrender their positions to foreigners and are trying to minimize losses for themselves by delaying the process. Even after the president signs the judicial reform, the judges find an opportunity to block it.

September 15, 2021 The Cabinet of Ministers approved a new Strategy for Information Security of Ukraine, which, after approval by the NSDC, comes into force with a presidential decree. The strategy provides for the improvement of the regulatory framework in the field of information policy, which determines the interaction of law enforcement agencies with local governments and public organizations. The information security strategy continues the policy of the authorities aimed at “tightening the screws” in terms of information warfare against political opponents. Thus, the state may try to establish its total control over the country's main media resources. In general, there is a process of forming a repressive instrument that will control the entire information field of the country.

September 21, 2021 On September 21, the Rada adopted amendments to the labor legislation in the first reading, draft law No. 5388 or “the law on quick dismissals” was adopted. The state continues to gradually get rid of its social obligations to the population by adopting amendments to labor legislation, namely, the actual replacement of the Labor Code with labor contracts, where any working conditions and any material liability of employees can be spelled out.

September 22, 2021 near Kiev, an attempt was made on the life of the assistant to the President of Ukraine Serhiy Shefir. His car was fired upon from a machine gun. The assistant himself was not injured, the driver was injured. The incident strengthens the role of S. Shefir in the president's team and may serve as an additional reason for further progress in the trend towards “tightening the screws”. There are versions that there are serious problems between him and the leadership of the OP, and S. Shefir allegedly even intended to resign. Now it will be simply indecent to dismiss him as a victim of an assassination attempt in the near future.

September 23, 2021 Parliament passed the presidential bill # 5599 on de-oligarchization. The criteria for defining "oligarchs" are presented in the law rather vaguely and can be applied selectively. In general, the law on de-oligarchization continues the trend of the authorities to “tighten the screws” - to suppress the main political competitors. Along with this, the law will serve as a tool for the redistribution of the main economic and media assets in favor of the president's team. The bill does not contain serious consequences for the oligarchs. Especially for those representatives of big business who will be loyal to Bankova. Rather, it acts as a means of discrediting influential persons who do not participate in political processes on the side of the current government. The law does not contain any mechanisms for the confiscation of their property or bringing them to legal responsibility.

October 6, 2021 intensifying diplomatic confrontation between Russia and NATO. The liquidation of the Russian mission to NATO and the NATO mission in Moscow serves as one of the confirmations that some experts, who spoke about the "big deal" after the meeting between Putin and Biden in Geneva, were in a hurry to rush things. Against the background of the above, the verbal confrontation around Ukraine is aggravated. Moscow openly declares about "red lines" and readiness to take "active actions" if NATO military bases appear in Ukraine. Representatives of the American military department, in turn, gush with harsh rhetoric against the Russian Federation and declare that "the doors to NATO are open for Ukraine."

October 7, 2021 the head of the Verkhovna Rada, Dmitry Razumkov, was dismissed. The main strategic reason for the resignation of D. Razumkov is that in this way the President's Office is trying to eliminate one of the rather strong potential competitors of V. Zelensky in the next presidential election. Today they are trying to persuade D. Razumkov not to get involved in the new election campaign by threats to deprive him of his mandate. After all, no matter how many D. Razumkov recruited, these are the potential votes of V. Zelensky, which may not be enough for re-election, here both the personal factor and the desire of Bankova to take over

use the resources of parliament, influence the media and the Rada TV channel. Ruslan Stefanchuk, a loyal Bankova, was appointed to the post of parliament speaker.

At the beginning of October 2021. leading Western media outlets actively wrote about the role of Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage in the Pandora Dossier, revealing the offshore schemes of high-ranking politicians and officials of a number of states. The fact that the President of Ukraine was given special attention in this matter in the Western media is not accidental. This circumstance testifies to the continuation of the trend of dissatisfaction among Western partners with the sabotage of reforms aimed at strengthening external dependence (primarily judicial reform and corporate governance reform) on the part of the Ukrainian leadership. In the future, within the framework of the same trend, several more waves of discrediting arise, in particular, the investigation of the Schemes about how Zelensky and Shefir contributed to attempts to withdraw assets from the Kurchenko bank, New investigation from Radio Liberty on Wagnergate, etc. ..

October 12, 2021 the 23rd Ukraine-EU summit was held in Kiev. As a result of the summit, the conclusion was once again confirmed that Ukraine is of interest to the European Union, first of all, as a market for goods and services, and also as a source of cheap raw materials. The conclusion of an open skies agreement and the lifting of the moratorium on the export of round timber from our country fully confirm this thesis.

October 19, 2021 The Verkhovna Rada adopted a package of laws on the independence of the National Bank, which are part of the implementation of the Memorandum with the International Monetary Fund. The package of laws on the NBU, while maintaining the influence of foreign investors, strengthens the independence of the National Bank from the Council of the NBU and the government. As part of the same trend, a law was adopted to bring the law on the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) in line with the Constitution. In essence, under the guise of strengthening "transparency", the Western partners are taking these structures out of the control of the Ukrainian authorities and reassigning them to themselves.

October 21, 2021 The Rada voted for the bill # 5464 for the development of the biogas market. In an effort to prepare for the termination of the transit of Russian gas through its territory, it is preparing legislation to inject biomethane into the Ukrainian gas transportation system instead of Russian gas in the future. A multi-level struggle is taking place around the energy sector of Ukraine, where, in parallel, there is a conflict of interests between I. Kolomoisky and R. Akhmetov and a struggle between Russia and the EU, forcing the latter to launch Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible.

At the beginning of November 2021. In order to establish more complete control of the OP over the work of the government and its main financial flows, personnel rotations took place in the Cabinet, affecting 1/3 of its composition. With the expectation that part of the socio-economic failures of power will be attributed to the dismissed ministers. The parliament appointed four new ministers: Aleksey Reznikov as minister of defense, Irina Vereshchuk as head of the Ministry of Reintegration, Pavel Ryabikin as head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry, and Yulia Sviridenko as Minister of Economy.

At the beginning of November 2021. there was a tendency to form a new political force under the leadership of ex-speaker Dmitry Razumkov. He made public the names of the people's deputies who entered the new inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics". In fact, another group of internal opposition has been created, which will simultaneously vote contrary to the position of the party leadership and de facto deprive the Servant of the People of the mono-majority in parliament. At the same time, de jure deputies will not leave the faction because of the risk of losing their mandate.

November 5, 2021 The authorities continued the trend towards “tightening the screws”. V. Zelensky immediately signs an "anti-oligarchic" law, which will become a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team.

 Since the beginning of November 2021. American media are beginning to circulate information about the alleged concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine. On November 9, this topic was continued by the American edition of Bloomberg. Several more American publications of the most authoritative order wrote about this: Politico, The Washington Post, and CNN. The most likely goal of this information campaign is to "raise the stakes" by the American side in negotiations with Moscow on strategic arms control. The "concentration of Russian troops" is cited as an argument for the need to delay the certification of Nord Stream 2, which Russia needs.

November 16, 2021 The German regulator has temporarily suspended the certification procedure for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. For its renewal, it is necessary to create an operating company in accordance with German law. The approximate deadlines for completing the SP-2 certification have shifted to April 2022. This may mean that gas prices in Europe will remain above $ 1,000 per thousand cubic meters throughout the winter.

 November 17, 2021 Bellingcat has released a full investigation into the likely disruption of the Wagner operation. It is noted that the idea of ​​a special operation originated in 201

8 year. In the text of the investigation, there is no direct accusation of A. Yermak or V. Zelensky that it was they who leaked the information. Bellingcat draws attention to the fact that the Belarusian special services that detained the "Wagnerites" believed that they were planning to undermine A. Lukashenko's regime. That is, in fact, the emphasis is on the fact that Ukraine's special operation could have been thwarted by accident. As a result, the information released by Bellingcat will not significantly affect the Office of the President. But even the accusations from the words of V. Burba, and especially their serious information promotion in Ukraine, could potentially be enough for the opposition to start organizing mass protests, with which it blackmails the current government.

Power ratings: After the offshore scandals and wagnergate, the ratings of President V. Zelensky and his party have dropped significantly.

The results of surveys in October clearly demonstrated that Ukrainian society generally negatively assesses both scandals associated with "offshores" (77.1% - consider the existence of offshore companies unacceptable), and "Wagnerians" (40% - blame the country's leadership for disrupting the operation) and the resignation of the speaker (this event was negatively assessed by almost 40% versus 8%). As a result, V. Zelensky's rating lost more than 8% in a month. In the parliamentary rating, the leadership was divided by two parties, the difference between them is within the statistical error. Servant of the People - 15.5% formally occupy the second line of the rating, yielding the leadership of European Solidarity - 15.7% (-1.7%), from the beginning of September to mid-October the Servant of the People party lost - 4.5 %. In dynamics since April 2021. the president's rating has lost 5-6% of electoral support and is approaching its minimum, which was in February 2021. - 22%. The party's rating has lost between 4% and 6% of electoral support.

At the same time, we can say that part of the disappointed electorate is flowing from V. Zelensky to D. Razumkov, since June his rating has increased by + 4% - 5.7% and ranged from 7% - 8.8%. The conditional "Dmitry Razumkov's Party", having debuted on the list with a score of 6.8%, overcomes the 5% barrier to get into parliament. True, in December D. Razumkov's ratings dropped slightly and amounted to about - 6%, the rating of his conditional party is also in the range of 6-7%.

In the event of electoral rivalry in a pair, V. Zelensky and P. Poroshenko wins V. Zelensky with a score of 55.6% and 44.4%, respectively (a gap of 11%). Despite the fact that in the second round the President retains the leadership and bypasses P. Poroshenko, the gap between them has narrowed by - 9% since June. According to a survey conducted in June, the gap was 20% (60% and 40%, respectively.

The results of the "Rating" poll also confirm that as a result of offshore scandals, a trend has been formed for a decrease in the ratings of the power team: in 1.5 months (-6%) for the president and (-5.4%) for the ruling party. But besides this, we see a significant decrease in the rating of trust in the president. For 1.5 months, the balance of trust in the president decreased by (-22%). Back in September, according to the “Rating” version, the level of confidence in the president was 50% (against 48%) and, accordingly, a positive balance (+ 2%).

To what extent Ukrainian society approves of the actions of President V. Zelensky was carried out by KIIS in mid-December. The results show that 58.6% of the respondents do not approve of the activities of President V. Zelensky; approve - 26.4%; balance - (-32.2%) since October this value has worsened by almost - 4%. For comparison, in September 2019. 71% were satisfied with the activities of V. Zelensky against 11%. Balance - (+ 60%), at that time such a result exceeded the approval of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin (2019 balance + 36%), and now would exceed the result of the current leader in the approval rating of the Prime Minister of India N. Modi (2021 balance + 45%).

The results of the KIIS survey carried out at the end of November clearly demonstrate the rapid decline in the Servant of the People's rating and, as a consequence, the loss of party leadership. European Solidarity - 17.1% is now in first place. This is followed by "Servant of the People" - 15%. At the same time, for the first time in two years of the 9th convocation, another party, D. Razumkov, "Reasonable Politics", is included in the four permanent leaders ("SN", "ES", "Obshchina", "Batkivshchyna"). With a result of 9.9%, the potential party ousted HLE from the four.

In early November, sociology from the Razumkov Center showed that V. Zelensky is now the "leader" of anti-ratings. Almost 32% of citizens will not vote for him under any conditions. Despite the fact that in the November poll from "Rating" the leader of the anti-ratings is P. Poroshenko (44% will not vote for him), V. Zelensky has a similar result to the Razumkov Center - 32% or almost a third of voters will not vote for him under any circumstances. conditions. The rather high anti-rating of V. Zelensky makes him potentially vulnerable to new candidates, if such appear in the next presidential election.

In November 2021. It finally became clear that the measures to combat the coronavirus in Ukraine were a failure. As a result

That is, a significant part of society does not trust the authorities in countering the pandemic. Trying to absolve themselves of responsibility, the authorities blame the “informational influence of the Russian Federation” for what is happening.

 “Vovina a Thousand” is, on the one hand, an attempt to directly bribe the voter, on the other, an attempt to lobby for the interests of a certain business (cinema chains and fitness clubs), the Internet, or rather - through the "Diya" application.

November 24, 201 The Cabinet of Ministers has launched the work of the Bureau of Economic Security. The launch of the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB) this week is one of the measures to ensure the current government's course towards total fiscalization. With the beginning of the functioning of the new body, one should expect an increase in the number of criminal cases related to non-payment of taxes, and the most severe sentences for ordinary citizens (entrepreneurs, individuals, etc.). At the same time, as the example of NABU, SAP, and other newly formed structures shows, there is no reason to expect a real investigation of crimes committed by high-ranking officials from the new body.

On November 21, 2021, when the Day of Dignity and Freedom was celebrated in Ukraine, the participants of the mass protest came to the building of the President's Office (OP) on Bankova Street and put forward a demand: to dismiss the head of the OP, Andriy Yermak, within ten days.

Against the background of the energy crisis, the coronavirus epidemic and the consolidation of key financial and industrial groups against the Office of the President, the winter season can create a real political crisis for V. Zelensky with street protests. The Bellingcat investigation into the failure of the special operation of the Ukrainian special services to detain the Wagner PMC militants is heating up the situation. And first of all, it hits the reputation and support of V. Zelensky in the right political segment, where he was actively displaced by the team last year.

November 26, 2021 V. Zelensky held a press conference on the results of half of his tenure as head of state. The President spoke to reporters against the backdrop of a number of scandals related to Wagnergate, investigations about the birthday of the head of OP A. Yermak, the likelihood of a Russian invasion, etc. featured the first person. The President made it clear that any attempt to organize protests or continue an information attack on the authorities (whether from Rinat Akhmetov or someone else) will end in a sharp suppression and accusation of all those involved in treason / work for the Kremlin.

November 30, 2021 The Constitutional Court of Ukraine has declared it impossible to swear in the oath of Oleksandr Petrishin and Oksana Grischuk, whom President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed as judges of the Constitutional Court on November 26. Among other things, the statement said that Alexander Tupitsky and Alexander Kasminin remain acting judges of the Constitutional Court until their terms of office expire or until they are dismissed from their posts by the Constitutional Court itself. A. Tupitsky's term of office expires in May 2022, while A. Kasminin's - in September 2022. Thus, in the confrontation for influence on the country's judicial system, the president suffered another defeat from the judiciary. In the future, the United States will impose sanctions against A. Tupitsky, as well as against A. Portnov, which will continue the trend towards confrontation between Western partners, the president and the judiciary for influence on the country's judicial system. Western pressure is being put on those figures who, according to the United States, potentially hinder the reboot of the judiciary and the establishment of control over the work of the Ukrainian judicial system by “international experts”.

On November 30, 2021, it became clear that the geopolitical confrontation between the United States and its allies, on the one hand, and the Russian Federation and its allies, on the other, not only did not subside against the background of Russian-American negotiations, but was also growing. Its evidence was NATO's refusal to offer the Russian side to agree on guarantees of non-expansion of the bloc to the East and statements by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko about readiness to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in his country if American nuclear weapons are deployed in Poland.

In turn, in Ukraine, Defense Minister A. Reznikov makes statements about de facto integration into NATO, through expanding cooperation, as well as about the desire to deploy Western military instructors in positions near the contact line - this is a call to the fact that Russian top officials individuals, including Vladimir Putin, have been consistently designated as the "red line" for six months, namely, the military development of the territory of Ukraine by NATO countries. But the West considered this statement by A. Reznikov provocative and publicly refused to follow the tactics voiced in it.

December 1, 2021 In the Verkhovna Rada, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with the annual a message that confirmed the intention of the President's Office to continue the trend to strengthen the personal power of the head of state.

The President's statements about the planned coup d'etat on December 1 plunged the value of R. Akhmetov's Eurobonds by 13%. At the same time, I. Kolomoisky does not feel such pressure. And thus, de-oligarchization occurs selectively. The authorities are increasing pressure on D. Firtash's business empire by returning the Zaporozhye Titanium and Magnesium Combine to the state.

On December 1, 2021, the day on which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a "coup d'etat", a protest action "Protect Ukraine - Stop the Coup" took place in Kiev. The main demand of the protesters was the resignation of the head of the President's Office, Andrei Yermak. The protests of the nationalist-oriented opposition on the day of the message turned out to be less massive than expected and did not produce the desired informational effect. It is possible that this happened as a result of agreements between the opposition and Western partners. The opposition could have canceled indefinite protests under the influence of Western partners, who believe that Russia could take advantage of destabilization in the country.

At the beginning of December 2021. in order to stabilize the falling ratings, President V. Zelensky registered bills on the introduction of an economic passport with the Verkhovna Rada. They were part of his campaign program. If these bills are passed, the first payments to persons who have reached the age of majority will begin in 2037.

December 7, 2021 regular talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin took place via video link. They never brought a full-fledged "detente" between the parties. The situation remains extremely tense: the United States continues to declare the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia - about Kiev's intention to return the uncontrolled territories of Donbass by force. Nevertheless, there are still some results of the talks between the Russian and American leaders. These include the US refusal to impose new sanctions against Nord Stream 2, as well as a temporary freeze on the provision of the next tranche of military aid for Ukraine. However, these decisions can be quickly played back.

 December 13, 2021 after a meeting of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia said that the law on the capital will be considered in the Verkhovna Rada in the "new season." The intention to adopt a law on the capital continues the trend towards strengthening the power of the OP at the regional level, as well as the opposition of V. Zelensky and V. Klitschko for control over the main financial flows in Kiev. The main purpose of the document is to delimit the powers of the mayor and the head of the Kyiv City State Administration, appointed by the president. One of the reasons that the consideration of the law on the capital was postponed to the next season may be the lack of votes in parliament. This situation could have developed taking into account the influence of D. Razumkov on the voting of the deputies who are in his MFO. In addition, it is possible that the opposing parties (V. Zelensky and V. Klitschko) are behind the scenes trying to come to agreements on the distribution of financial flows in Kiev, in connection with which the consideration of the law on the capital was postponed.

December 17, 2021 The Verkhovna Rada has failed the vote to consider the law on the postponement of cash registers for private entrepreneurs. Despite the protest actions of the FLP, the authorities did not move the date for the introduction of cash registers for them. This happened as part of the continuation of the trend towards total fiscalization, caused by the desire to cover the budget deficit and the repayment of foreign loans at the expense of ordinary citizens.

December 17, 2021 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has published a strategic proposal of Russia to the United States and NATO on mutual security guarantees. Moscow firmly intends to protect itself from the threats associated with the expansion of the NATO bloc and its military infrastructure to the East in recent decades for the Russian Federation. The issue of non-deployment of American or NATO weapons on Ukrainian territory is as critical for Russia today as the issue of non-deployment of Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba was for the United States in the 1960s. Considering that the American side is unlikely to agree to give Russia the guarantees it requires, in the foreseeable future one should expect further militarization of Eastern Europe and an intensification of the Russian-American confrontation in the region. Its elements could be the deployment of American tactical nuclear weapons in Poland, and Russian - in Belarus, as well as a military escalation in Ukraine at the initiative of the Russian Federation in order to prevent the deployment of American weapons systems on its territory.

December 17, 2021 Investigators of the RRB handed over a summons to all home and work addresses where Poroshenko was registered to be summoned as a suspect. They tried to hand it over to him personally, but he ran away from the investigators. The matter concerns the purchase of coal from Donbass. The person involved in this case is the head of the political council of the Opposition Platform - For Life party Viktor Medvedchuk. After that, the ex-President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko left the country. His party "European Solidarity" about

she explained this by a pre-planned diplomatic tour to Turkey and Poland. Thus, V. Zelensky gets rid of two key opponents - V. Medvedchuk and P. Poroshenko, from the right and left segments of political competition. The protests of P. Poroshenko's supporters are quite possible, but they are unlikely to lead to a new Maidan, especially since the escape of P. Poroshenko is perceived negatively in society.

Power ratings at the end of 2021:

According to the latest data from the leading sociological companies "Rating", KIIS and the Razumkov Center, the rating of the President is from 27.6% to 24%, and the rating of the pro-government party "Servant of the People" is from 17% to 23%. The trust rating is in the range of 28-38%, while the level of distrust reaches 61% -66%.

On average, the electoral support for V. Zelensky remained at almost the same level over the year:

according to KIIS data from December 2020 (27%) to December 2021 (27.6%); according to the Razumkov Center in the period from December 2020. (28%) to November 2021 (25%) the presidential rating decreased by (-3%); according to the "Rating" from December 2020. (29%) to December 2021 (24%) the rating decreased by (-5%); in the overall dynamics of the president's rating since February 2020. (44-43%) lost 17% to 20% of their rating.

• At the same time, the balance of trust in the President:

According to the data, the Razumkov Center is in December 2020. (trust -30%; not trust - 64%; balance -34%), in November 2021. (trust -28%; not trust 66%; balance -38%), respectively, the balance of trust for this period has lost - 4%. Moreover, according to the Razumkov Center since October 2019. lost trust balance - 82%

• According to the data, "Rating" - in December 2020. (trust - 41%; not trust - 53%; balance -14%), in December 2021. trust -38%; not trust - 61%; balance (-23%), respectively, the balance of trust for this period has lost 9%. In general dynamics since July 2019 (trust - 76%; not trust - 14%; balance + 62%), the balance of trust for this period has lost - 85%.

The number of those who are ready to vote again for "Servants of the People":

 According to KIIS, it remained at the same level. December 2020 (17%) to December 2021 (about 18%); in general dynamics since February 2020 (39%) lost the rating of the party (-21%)

According to the Razumkov Center, in the period from December 2020 (26.5%) to December 2021. (23%) the party's rating decreased by (-3.5%); in general dynamics since January 2020 (45%) the party's rating fell by (-22%).

According to the "Rating" in the period from December 2020 (21%) to December 2021. (19%) the party's rating dropped by 2%. in general dynamics since December 2019 (47%) the party's rating fell by (-28%).

Динамика рейтинга доверия и недоверия Президента В.Зеленского.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Динамика рейтинга доверия и недоверия  политической партии "Слуги народа"