Analytical review of the week No. 139 of 14.11.2021.

Авторы публикации

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

08.11.- 14.11.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Former Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Dmitry Razumkov announced the list of deputies who will be included in the inter-factional association he created called "Reasonable Politics".

2. Minister of Culture A. Tkachenko resigned.

3. The English-language edition "Kyiv Post" suspends its publication.

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Information activity of the United States on the topic of "the concentration of Russian troops at the borders of Ukraine."

2. The situation with migrants on the Belarusian-Polish border.

3. Situation in US-China relations on the eve of the first virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jingping.

4. Chilean President Impeached for Pandora Papers.

ECONOMY.

1. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

2. Total fiscalization.

3. Land market.

4. The course towards "combating smuggling" ultimately led to the opposite result - a fall in tax revenues to the budget in 2021 compared to 2020.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

Firstly , this week, the country's domestic policy has shown a tendency towards the formation of a new political force under the leadership of ex-speaker Dmitry Razumkov. He made public the names of the people's deputies who entered the new inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics".

Secondly , the writing of a letter of resignation by the Minister of Culture A. Tkachenko continues the general course of strengthening the control of V. Zelensky and his entourage over the work of the Cabinet of Ministers and its main financial flows.

Thirdly , the outgoing week was marked by the continuation of the hybrid confrontation between Poland and Lithuania, on the one hand, and Belarus , on the other. Responding to the activity of its western neighbors last year in an attempt to overthrow the state power in Minsk, the Belarusian leadership resorted to the practice of maximizing the transit through its territory of refugees from the Middle East, whose goal is the European Union. As a result, Poland was forced to bring its security forces to increased combat readiness, and many aggressive migrants accumulated on its eastern border.

Fourthly , the trend towards confrontation between the United States and China within the framework of the new Cold War remains relevant. Despite the conciliatory rhetoric of Chinese leader Xi Jingping on the eve of the first virtual meeting with Joe Biden, the American president has shown no willingness to compromise. Instead, he brings the ideological basis of the "struggle of democracies against autocracies" into conflict with China and Russia.

Fifth , the American media, over the past weeks, continue to circulate information about the alleged concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine. The most likely goal of this information campaign is to "raise the stakes" by the American side in negotiations with Moscow on strategic arms control. The "concentration of Russian troops" is cited as an argument for the need to delay the certification of Nord Stream 2, which Russia needs.

Sixth , there is no long-term strategy for ensuring energy security in the energy sector of Ukraine. The only trend that remains unchanged (and not only in the energy sector) is the course towards the privatization of large enterprises, despite the smoldering conflict in the East of Ukraine, which means that it is impossible to sell these enterprises at a high price. The energy sector of Ukraine is also a field of struggle between big business and government. In parallel, our country also suffers from a larger energy confrontation between the Union State of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation on the one hand and the EU on the other, where energy trade is increasingly becoming a subject of blackmail.

Seventh , total fiscalization is expanding with new penalties for mishandling animals. The authorities are also striving to bring the Ukrainian IT industry out of the shadows. From January 1, 2022, approximately 100 thousand Ukrainian entrepreneurs will be required to use cash registers.

Eighth , the course towards “fighting smuggling” has led to the opposite results - the budget has lost almost half a billion US dollars in just 6 months of 2021.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

This week, the country's domestic policy showed a tendency towards the formation of a new political force under the leadership of ex-speaker D. Razumkov. He made public the names of the people's deputies who entered the new inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics".

The writing of a letter of resignation by the Minister of Culture A. Tkachenko continues the general course of strengthening the control of V. Zelensky and his entourage over the work of the Cabinet of Ministers and its main financial flows.

1. Former Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Dmitry Razumkov announced the list of deputies who will be included in the inter-factional association he created called "Reasonable Politics".

This week, ex-speaker of parliament Dmitry Razumkov announced the names of people's deputies who were included in his inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics" [1] . In addition to Razumkov himself, 24 more deputies got into him: two from Batkivshchyna (Andrei Nikolaenko, Vladimir Kabanenko), non-factional people 's deputy Lyudmila Buimister and 21 from Servant of the People:

Vladimir Kozak
Vasily Mokan
Roman Sokha
Nelly Yakovleva
Oksana Dmitrieva
Valery Bozhik
Dmitry Mikisha
Artyom Dmitruk
Olga Solodukha
Oleg Voronko
Alexander Bakumov
Olga Koval
Daria Volodina
Mikhail Novikov
Roman Babiy
Alina Zagoruiko
Konstantin Kasay
Dmitry Gurin
Evgeny Petrunyak
Ivan Yunokov
Mikhail Kryachko

According to D. Razumkov, "these are the people who adhere to the principles that it was difficult for the President's Office to break" during the vote for his resignation from the post of speaker. D. Razumkov understands that the deputies who are oriented towards him need some kind of political perspective. It can only be provided by formal unification. In addition, this is an application for a political project. D. Razumkov understands that public attention to him may soon subside. Especially if the ex-speaker loses his mandate or the President's Office succeeds in blocking his participation in television broadcasts. In fact, another group of internal opposition has been created, which will simultaneously vote contrary to the position of the party leadership and de facto deprive the Servant of the People of the mono-majority in parliament. At the same time, de jure deputies will not leave the faction due to the risk of losing their mandate.

The further development of events will depend on whether D. Razumkov will be able to organize synchronous voting of his followers. If he succeeds, it will be possible to ascertain the loss of a mono-majority in parliament and the actual formation of a deputy group, albeit without a formal status of such.

Whether D. Razumkov's association will grow in the future depends on his ratings, as well as financial and media support. If the ratings of the ex-speaker and, potentially, his political power will grow, then the inter-factional association "Reasonable Politics" will grow. If the ratings stagnate or decline, this merger will be dysfunctional. The latest poll conducted by the Sociological Group "Rating" showed that so far the ex-speaker's ratings have a positive trend. D. Razumkov's rating[2] is 8.8%, since the beginning of autumn it has grown by 5.7%. The conditional "Dmitry Razumkov's Party", having debuted on the list with a score of 6.8%, overcomes the 5% barrier to get into parliament.

2. Minister of Culture A. Tkachenko resigned.

On November 11, Minister of Culture and Information Policy Alexander Tkachenko resigned. Leave the minister, he said,[3] were forced by disagreements with the government, in particular poor teamwork and underfunding in the cultural sector. According to A. Tkachenko, the Ukrainian authorities are acting inconsistently and do not allow a management reform to be carried out in the “European concept”. Another reason for Tkachenko's writing of a letter of resignation is "the sudden decision of the government to take Goskino away from his ministry." At a meeting on November 10, the Cabinet of Ministers voted to separate the State Film Agency from the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy. A. Tkachenko says that this decision was made without the consent of him and the ministry, probably there is a competition between the president's entourage for the budgets of the State Film Agency and the Ministry of Culture.

The former general director of "1 + 1" A. Tkachenko is a person from the group of influence of I. Kolomoisky. He had his own regarding political processes and public administration practices, which did not always coincide with the opinion of the President's Office. It is possible that this is precisely why A. Tkachenko fell into the category of "unreliable" people and began to curtail his powers.

Now the Office of the President is seeking to increase its influence over the government and key ministries. Thus, the resignation of the Minister of Culture A. Tkachenko continues the general course towards strengthening the control of V. Zelensky and his entourage over the work of the Cabinet of Ministers and its main financial flows.

3. The English-language edition "Kyiv Post" suspends its publication.

On November 8, it became known that the publisher of the weekly English-language newspaper Kyiv Post, Adnan Kivan, announced the immediate closure of the newspaper "for a short time." Brian Bonner, editor-in-chief of the Kyiv Post, said he would resign after the newspaper was closed and its archives preserved. [4] .

At the same time, the Kyiv Post team said that the owner thus "gets rid of inconvenient, honest and principled journalists." The journalist of the publication Anna Mironyuk on Facebook released a statement [5] that the publication ceased to exist, since on Monday morning its employees learned about the dismissal. The chief editor of Ukrainska Pravda, Sevgil Musayeva, said that the closure of the Kyiv Post was connected with the pressure of the OP on Kivan, the OP denied this information. [6]

In turn, the US Embassy called November 8 a sad day for the Ukrainian media, in connection with the termination of the work of the newspaper "Kyiv Post" [7] . The owner of the publication himself, Adnan Kivan, claims that the President's Office did not pressure either himself or the publication. [8] .

It should be noted that, contrary to the statements of a part of the journalistic community oriented towards Western grants, the main reasons for the suspension of the publication of the Kyiv Post are not political, but purely economic in nature. Due to the fact that the publication was published in English, it was not popular in Ukraine. As for the international audience, it has also naturally decreased in recent years, as interest in our country in the West has fallen. In other words, for the owner, the Kyiv Post was a purely unprofitable asset. And as you know, during a crisis, they get rid of unprofitable assets in the first place.

The secondary reason for the closure of the Kyiv Post may be the adoption of the so-called law "On de-oligarchization". Adnan Kivan is trying to get rid of a toxic asset that could lead to being included in the NSDC's oligarch lists.

Immediately after the signing of the law on oligarchs, on November 5, Petro Poroshenko announced the transfer of 100% of the corporate rights of the Pryamaya and Channel 5 TV channels to the newly formed Mediaholding Vilny Media LLC [9] .

4. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

This week, another sociological survey of the "Rating" group was published[10] , according to which V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating - 21.8% of respondents.

Compared to the poll the company published a week ago, the president's approval rating has dropped 3.3%. Compared to the rating published in September[11] (31%) then the president's rating has lost 9.2% since the beginning of autumn.

The leader in the parliamentary rating is:

"Servant of the people" - 17.3% of the respondents. In comparison with the poll published by the "Rating" group a week ago, the party's indicator has decreased by 3.1%. Compared to the rating published in September 2021. (25.8%), it lost 8.5%.

33% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President V. Zelensky; 65% are not satisfied; balance (-32%). Interestingly, this indicator has not actually changed since December 2020 (-1% within the margin of error).

22% are satisfied with the work of the Office of the President; not satisfied - 72%; balance (-50%). 18% are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister D. Shmygal; not satisfied -68%; balance (-50%). 16% are satisfied with the work of the Cabinet of Ministers; not satisfied - 80%; balance (-64%). 14% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada; not satisfied - 83%; balance (-69%).

58% of respondents support early elections to the Verkhovna Rada; do not support - 38%. Support the change in the composition of the Cabinet of Ministers - 55%; do not support - 39%. Support early presidential elections - 40%; do not support - 58%.

The results of the survey by the "Rating" group show a rapid trend in the decrease in the ratings of the current government. Over the week, the ratings of the president and his party dropped by 3%. As a result, since the beginning of autumn V. Zelensky has lost 9.2%, and "Servant of the People" - 8.5%.

At the same time, we can say that part of the disappointed electorate of V. Zelensky flows to D. Razumkov. Since the beginning of autumn, his rating has increased by 5.7%. The conditional "Dmitry Razumkov's Party", having debuted on the list with a score of 6.8%, overcomes the 5% barrier to get into parliament.

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly:

The outgoing week was marked by the continuation of the hybrid confrontation between Poland and Lithuania on the one hand and Belarus on the other. Responding to the activity of its western neighbors last year in an attempt to overthrow the state power in Minsk, the Belarusian leadership resorted to the practice of maximizing the transit through its territory of refugees from the Middle East, whose goal is the European Union. As a result, Poland was forced to bring its security forces to increased combat readiness, and many aggressive migrants accumulated on its eastern border.

The trend towards confrontation between the United States and China within the framework of the new Cold War remains relevant. Despite the conciliatory rhetoric of Chinese leader Xi Jingping on the eve of the first virtual meeting with Joe Biden, the American president has shown no willingness to compromise. Instead, he brings the ideological basis of the "struggle of democracies against autocracies" into conflict with China and Russia.

The American media, over the past weeks, continue to circulate information about the alleged concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine. The most likely goal of this information campaign is to "raise the stakes" by the American side in negotiations with Moscow on strategic arms control. The "concentration of Russian troops" is cited as an argument for the need to delay the certification of Nord Stream 2, which Russia needs.

1. Information activity of the United States on the topic of "the concentration of Russian troops at the borders of Ukraine."

For two weeks now, some strange information activity has been observed around Ukraine. The American media are talking about the alleged concentration of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, and Ukraine itself refutes this.

On November 9, this topic was continued by the American edition of Bloomberg.[12] .

According to him, a battalion of Russian T-80U tanks arrived in the Voronezh region. These are about three dozen armored vehicles that can be sent to the Pogonovo training ground, located 250 kilometers from the border with Ukraine.

The Bloomberg article is not the first of its kind. Since October, American journalists have been writing about certain movements of the Russian troops that are potentially dangerous for Ukraine. For example, near Yelnya, which is located even further from the Ukrainian border - more than 300 kilometers.

Several more American publications of the most authoritative order wrote about this: Politico, The Washington Post, and CNN. The latter suggested that this is why CIA Director William Burns urgently arrived in Moscow. But the most important thing is that the stories about the redeployment of Russian troops were not refuted by the Pentagon, which announced that it was monitoring the situation.

On November 10, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken continued stirring up concerns on this issue, during a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, who said the following quote:

“We are concerned that Russia could make a serious mistake and try to repeat what it did in 2014, when it built up forces along the border, crossed it and infiltrated sovereign Ukrainian territory.”

At the same time, just a week ago, on November 2-3, CIA Director William Burns paid a visit to Moscow. He held a series of talks with Russian officials, the details of which were not released to the press.

According to the American media, US President Joe Biden sent the head of the CIA to Moscow to "warn" the Kremlin that the US is monitoring the situation with the build-up of Russian troops near the border with Ukraine[13] .

From our point of view, such an explanation sounds extremely dubious and is intended primarily for the domestic American audience, which is pleased to think that Washington can still “warn” the alternative poles of world politics against certain actions. In fact, Burns’s visit was most likely a continuation of a series of non-public talks between the Russian and American sides, the main subject of which is the conclusion of new arms control agreements. Actually, this issue is almost the only one on which the United States and the Russian Federation can really agree.

However, as we understand, any negotiations on such important topics imply a bargaining process, that is, raising rates by one or both parties. This is exactly what, in our opinion, the United States is doing now, declaring about the concentration of Russian troops near the borders with Ukraine.

Considering that both Ukraine and Russia refute the movement of troops - and the Americans themselves do not provide adequate evidence - we can talk about deliberate information stuffing. It is actively promoted by the media mouthpieces of the ruling US Democratic Party.

One of the probable explanations for this activity was given by the German press. The publication Suddeutsche Zeitung on November 6 said that American diplomats, in conversation with Germans, warn of the danger of the outbreak of war between Ukraine and Russia. In this regard, they propose to postpone the certification of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

Probably, it is the issue of hindering the certification of the gas pipeline, the construction of which the United States had previously agreed to, is the very element of the rate hike in negotiations with the Russian side, which we mentioned. The reports of the American press about the concentration of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine, in this regard, can only be a formal pretext for such diplomatic threats.

2. The situation with migrants on the Belarusian-Polish border.

The main topic for discussion of the world and regional press this week was the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border, where a huge crowd of Middle Eastern migrants gathered, wishing to break into the European Union.

At the end of last week, a convoy of thousands of migrants from the Middle East (mainly from Iraqi Kurdistan) gathered near the border of Belarus with Poland and moved towards the border. After it was not possible to cross it through the checkpoint, the crowd moved into the nearby forest and began to storm the barbed wire and chain-link fence installed by the Polish side. The migrants cut the wire with wire cutters and tried in every possible way to make passages in it in order to break through to the territory of Poland. Polish security forces prevented them by firing tear gas.

In connection with the situation on the border with Belarus, the Polish army was put on high alert. The territorial defense troops in a number of border voivodeships were ordered to be ready for mobilization within 6 hours.

The Polish Foreign Ministry called for the immediate imposition of sanctions against all individuals and legal entities involved in the situation with migrants on the border with Belarus.

"... All individuals and legal entities involved in this terrible hybrid attack must be punished immediately," the Polish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

According to Polish border guards, migrants at the Belarusian border, during November 8, made 309 attempts to break through to Poland, 17 people were detained.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry said Poland had deployed ten thousand soldiers at the border. The ministry called it "military activity" and added that Minsk had not received notifications from the Polish side. This is stated on the website of the defense department of Belarus.

"According to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, the deployment of 10,000 Polish servicemen at the Polish-Belarusian border is a significant military activity. Until now, Minsk has not received any notification or invitation of observers from the Polish side," the statement says.

Then, on November 10, the State Border Committee of Belarus announced that the Polish security forces had beaten up Kurdish refugees who had broken through from the republic to Poland.

According to the Belarusian border guards, the Polish security forces beat four men, Kurds by nationality.

The State Border Committee of Belarus added that they found victims in a spontaneous refugee camp on the Belarusian-Polish border[14] .

For the first time in the history of independent Lithuania, the Seimas, by a majority vote, declared a state of emergency along the border with Belarus due to the situation with the influx of thousands of migrants. It comes into force on Wednesday, November 10 and will last a month. This was reported in the microblogging of the Lithuanian parliament on Twitter[15] .

As you can see, an extremely tense situation has developed on the eastern border of Poland. The Poles, of course, blame Lukashenka for it. And they are partly right, since after last year's organization by Poland and Lithuania of an attempt to overthrow the state power in Belarus, the Belarusian leadership resorted to the practice of maximally facilitating the transit of Middle Eastern migrants through their country. The calculation here is simple: migrants make Warsaw and Vilnius spend money on strengthening the border, and also generate internal political instability in Poland and Lithuania, distracting these countries from actively interfering in the internal affairs of Belarus.

In addition, the issue of the brutal treatment of migrants by Poles may well become a pretext for another deepening of the conflict between Warsaw and Brussels. True, so far the Europeans are striving to demonstrate unity, appealing to Moscow with requests "to somehow influence Minsk."

So, on Wednesday, November 10, and. O. Federal Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel held telephone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the situation with migrants on the Polish-Belarusian border. She asked the Russian leader to intervene and influence Belarus[16] .

The Kremlin voiced the response of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which he gave to Merkel. The official statement on the website of the President of the Russian Federation says that the Russian leader proposed to the European Union to resolve the issue with Minsk directly. Given that Europe does not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as a legitimate president, such a proposal sounds like a sophisticated political trolling.

In general, the situation on the border of Belarus and Poland is an element of a hybrid war between states that are part of various military-political blocs in Eastern Europe. By sending Middle Eastern migrants to Poland (a NATO member state) with the aim of destabilizing, Belarus (a CSTO member and part of the Union State) is responding to the organization by the Poles of an attempted coup d'etat after the 2020 presidential elections.

3. Situation in US-China relations on the eve of the first virtual meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jingping.

China stands ready to settle its differences with the United States. This was announced on Tuesday by the country's leader Xi Jinping before a scheduled online meeting with US President Joe Biden. [17] .

The meeting, the first since Biden became president earlier this year, will take place next week, according to US media reports. However, specific details and exact date were not disclosed. The news about the organization of the meeting was first reported by Bloomberg.

President Xi hinted at a slight thaw in relations with the United States, according to a statement released on the website of the Chinese Embassy in the United States on Tuesday.

In the letter, the PRC leader said that China wants to "intensify exchange and cooperation in all areas" with the United States and return relations between the two world powers on the right track.

The letter was read by the Chinese Ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, at a dinner at the National Committee on US-China Relations on Tuesday.

US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry confirmed that Biden and Xi Jingping will soon meet for a virtual summit and said his team is busy preparing for the event.

Last month, US officials said they had reached an agreement in principle with China to hold a virtual meeting between Biden and Xi before the end of the year as part of efforts to promote stability.

The tentative agreement was the result of a lengthy six-hour meeting between Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan and China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Switzerland, just days after Beijing sent a record number of warplanes into Taiwan's defense zone.

However, as we understand, the normalization of relations between China and the United States depends not only on Beijing's aspirations, but also on Washington's readiness. And with this, in recent years, there are obvious problems.

For example, a delegation of American lawmakers arrived in Taiwan on Tuesday, prompting immediate condemnation from China, which called the trip a "provocative act."[18] .

A group of unnamed congressmen landed in Taipei in a Boeing C-40A military aircraft shortly after 6:00 pm. local time according to Flightaware flight information. After a short stay at the airport, the plane took off for Okinawa.

The Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the visit and said the trip was organized by the American Institute in Taiwan - the de facto US embassy in Taipei. The names of the deputies who participated in the visit and their route were not disclosed.

As we understand, the very visit of the American congressmen and the publication of information about it is a demonstration that the United States is not ready to make concessions in the Cold War with China and intends to continue to actively support Beijing's opponents in the region.

Under these conditions, US President Joe Biden made a remarkable statement of an ideological nature. He said this week that Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping question the effectiveness of democracy in today's world.

Further quote:

"Both Putin and Xi Jinping made it clear to me that they do not believe that democracies in the 21st century can function because it takes too long to reach consensus, and therefore autocracies will win."[19] .

According to the US President, after the storming of the Capitol on January 6, "the world wonders if it is true that America has returned." According to Biden, citizens can also ask whether the American democratic system can succeed. He believes the US should do this.

Putting aside pathos and slogans, Biden's above-described statement means that his administration, despite the decline of American influence in the world, does not intend to abandon the geopolitical confrontation with Moscow and Beijing. Moreover, Washington is trying to give it a new ideological rationale, speaking of "the struggle of democracies against autocracies."

4. Chilean President Impeached for Pandora Papers.

On Tuesday, Chile's lower house of Congress announced impeachment to President Sebastian Piñera. This event was the result of a Senate litigation over the "Pandora Papers" dossier[20] .

The impeachment vote received the 78 votes required in the 155-member Chamber of Deputies, and came after a 20-hour Senate session. 67 MPs voted against impeachment, including several opposition representatives. Others abstained or were absent.

To obtain the majority needed to impeach, Socialist MP Jaime Naranjo read a series of documents on the investigation for almost 14 hours straight.

The head of the Chilean presidential secretariat, Juan Jose Ossa, called the impeachment a "political show."

Sebastian Piñera's accusations relate to the publication of the so-called "Pandora Papers" dossier, which exposes the offshore financial transactions of prominent figures around the world.

Published documents showed that one of Piñera's sons used offshore companies in the British Virgin Islands to sell the Dominga mining project, which his family co-owned.

The mine's value in 2011 depended on whether the government refused to declare the area in central Chile, where it is located, a nature reserve. The Cabinet of Ministers, which was then headed by Piñera, did not do this, despite calls from environmentalists. But subsequent governments also did not declare the territory a protected area.

When investigators examined the case a few years later, Piñera a stated that he was not involved in the management of the companies and was not even aware of the connection with Dominga.

Be that as it may, the Chilean example shows that offshore scandals can serve as a reason for the impeachment of the head of state. For Ukraine, whose President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also featured in the notorious Pandora Papers, this example is very indicative.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

In the energy sector of Ukraine, there is no long-term strategy to ensure energy security. The only trend that remains unchanged (and not only in the energy sector) is the course towards the privatization of large enterprises, despite the smoldering conflict in the East of Ukraine, which means that it is impossible to sell these enterprises at a high price. The energy sector of Ukraine is also a field of struggle between big business and government. In parallel, our country is also suffering from a larger energy confrontation between the Union State of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation, on the one hand, and the EU, on the other, where energy trade is increasingly becoming a subject of blackmail.

Total fiscalization is expanding with new penalties for mishandling animals. The authorities are also striving to bring the Ukrainian IT industry out of the shadows. From January 1, 2022, approximately 100 thousand Ukrainian entrepreneurs will be required to use cash registers.

The course towards “fighting smuggling” has led to the opposite results - the budget has lost almost half a billion US dollars in just 6 months of 2021.

1. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

An analysis of recent events in the energy sector of Ukraine indicates a lack of a strategy for the authorities in this area. The trend for a multi-level nature of the struggle between forces of different levels of influence around the energy sector of Ukraine continues. For example, the pan-European energy rush due to energy shortages ultimately led to a record increase in gas prices for cars - up to 20 hryvnia per liter. [21] . In parallel, Belarus stopped supplying electricity to Ukraine, despite the latter's request.[22] . Ukraine also requested electricity from Slovakia[23] .

On November 9, at a meeting of the TCG subgroup on economic issues, the Ukrainian side asked to discuss the topic of commercial supplies of electricity and coal from the uncontrolled part of Donbass[24] . She indirectly admitted that she had requested the supply of coal, since she stated that there was not enough coal at the Luhansk TPP (in the village of Schastya near Luhansk, which is controlled by Kiev).

On November 10, the newspaper "Economic Pravda" referred to the results of the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, according to which the Cabinet of Ministers resumed the NJSC "Energy Company of Ukraine", together with the state mines, shares of "Centrenergo" will be transferred to it for the purpose of privatization in the future[25] . Centerenergo can be combined with the mines of 2 state-owned coal companies: the mines of the Dobropolyeugol-Dobycha State Enterprise, the M.S. Surgai "and two mines from the SE" Selidovugol "-" Ukraine "and" Kotlyarevskaya ". Due to the extreme proximity to the zone of potential hostilities, the privatization of such enterprises a priori cannot imply their sale at a high price. privatizing enterprises means selling them for only a fraction of their real value.

On November 10, NSDC Secretary Aleksey Danilov said that the National Security and Defense Council could not issue orders for rolling power outages[26] . A. Danilov, in particular, was asked whether Ukraine would go for direct purchases of gas from the Russian Federation, but he did not answer this question. Also, A. Danilov on November 10, after a meeting of the NSDC, said that the National Security and Defense Council would hear the NABU in the Rotterdam + case.[27] , the actualization of which suspiciously coincides with the appearance of A. Avakov on the air of the Ukraine 24 TV channel, which is rumored to be the property of R. Akhmetov. Thus, the actualization of the Rotterdam + case may be a response of the current government to the stake of R. Akhmetov on A. Avakov, who, in turn, spoke out in public with sharp criticism of the NSDC. Meanwhile, 10 out of 12 Ukrainian thermal power plants did not meet the minimum coal reserves[28] (as of November 10).

2. Total fiscalization.

As of November 8, 18 banks have already automatically blocked the accounts of citizens at the request of state and private executors.[29] . The corresponding order was issued by the Cabinet of Ministers on March 23, 2021. Changes in the legislation in the field of animal protection came into force in Ukraine on November 8[30] . Now they can be fined for: walking a dog without a muzzle or uncleaned pet excrement, leaving dogs tied at the store, or the very fact of donating animals as prizes and awards. Owners of dogs from the new list must conclude a compulsory liability insurance contract for damage that may be caused to third parties. How much the insurance will cost and when insurance companies will start offering it is still unknown, but this issue should be settled within three months. They can also be punished for walking in places not designated for this and if the owner does not clean up the excrement after the animal (this applies not only to dogs, but also to cats). In case of a repeated violation during the year, the fine for an individual increases to UAH 340-510, for an official - up to UAH 510-1020. If the animal attacks a person or spoils property, the owner is already facing a fine from UAH 1,700 to UAH 3,400. For officials - from 3400 to 5100 UAH. In this case, the animal can be confiscated. An important point is the requirement to register dogs. The Administrative Code contains a clause that the owners of unregistered dogs should be fined, but in reality they will not be fined for this since November 8, since the law has not yet been adopted that prescribes the registration procedure.

The bill №3796 "On the responsible keeping of animals in captivity" has already been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada, but is still under consideration in the committees. Its author, Yulia Ovchinnikova, a deputy from the "Servant of the People", explained that first it would be necessary to identify the animal, that is, to microchip or attach a token in the veterinary clinic. Then information about the animal and its owner will be entered into a single database. The average cost of chipping is 70 UAH, a token is 35 UAH. Now this is done at will. Cruel treatment of animals, including homeless ones, which caused them suffering, but did not entail bodily harm or death, leaving animals to their own devices is punishable by a fine from 3400 to 5100 UAH. That is, those who drive their pets out into the street face responsibility. Similar actions committed against two or more animals, by a group of persons, or repeatedly in one year, already entail a fine from 5100 to 8500 UAH. or administrative arrest for up to 15 days with confiscation of the animal.

November 10, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine decided to increase tariffs for lung and heart transplantation, this will allow medical institutions to cover all actual costs of operations[31] . Transplant operations in Ukraine are carried out at the expense of the state budget and are free of charge for patients.

Bill No. 5376 on taxation norms within the special regime "Diya" City is preparing for the second reading[32] . In the first reading, we recall that the personal income tax was fixed at 5%, the unified social contribution was 22% of the minimum wage (and not from the full payment of a specialist), and the military tax was 1.5%. Corporate tax, as planned in the first edition, will be able to choose: income tax at the rate of 18% or tax on withdrawn capital at the rate of 9%. Such a regime will stimulate reinvestment. From the beginning of 2022, part of the sole proprietorship (approximately one hundred thousand entrepreneurs) will be obliged to use cash registers[33] . All natural persons-entrepreneurs of the second-fourth groups of the simplified taxation system must use a cash register when making any settlement transactions .

3. Land market.

The Cabinet of Ministers at its meeting on November 3 approved a new methodology for the regulatory and monetary valuation of land[34] . The formula will include the capitalized rental income standard, the area of the plot and five coefficients (depending on the location of the land, purpose, zoning, "recreational" or, conversely, "polluted" status). According to this technique, it will now be necessary to revalue lands for which they did not have time to draw up documentation. A monetary assessment is carried out every 5-7 years, this is a very large-scale, lengthy and expensive process. At the moment, a huge number of documents are under development. The initiator of the innovation, which infringes upon the interests of the Association of Ukrainian Cities, was the Minister of AIC Roman Leshchenko. For the land under the factories, as well as the land of "Ukrzaliznytsia", the coefficients, in comparison with the existing ones, have been reduced several times. At the same time, it is interesting that the rest of the coefficients (and they still exist) have not been changed. Similar innovations have already been tried to implement in the scandalous bill 5600, which is now being worked on in the Rada. But there they did not go. The lower the coefficient, the lower the value of the land, and the lower the tax rate.

4. The course towards "combating smuggling" ultimately led to the opposite result - a fall in tax revenues to the budget in 2021 compared to 2020.

On November 11, on his Facebook page, economic expert Viktor Skarshevsky published his own research, citing data from the State Customs Service that as a result of the policy of “fighting smuggling,” tax revenues to the Ukrainian budget from imports of goods decreased by $ 491 million or 13 billion UAH only for the period from May to October 2021 due to a decrease in the tax burden on taxable imports[35] .

That is, the “fight against smuggling” took not the form of inevitability of punishment for a crime, but the form of reducing the tax burden on taxable imports. Apparently, the authorities were counting on the conscientiousness of private business, which would stop looking for loopholes, how not to pay the duty on the import of goods into Ukraine. But the reform has achieved the opposite result. The less tax revenues from the import of goods to the budget of Ukraine, the more profit remains for private business. Instead of increasing budget revenues, the authorities achieved the opposite result.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=1857700177771297&id=100005939985790

[2] https://ratinggroup.ua/ru/research/ukraine/obschestvenno-politicheskie_nastroeniya_naseleniya_4-9_noyabrya_2021.html

[3] https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2021/11/11/7313635/

[4] https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/kyiv-post-closes-on-nov-8-for-a-short-time.html?fbclid=IwAR2LsTfGpUfLNaXNFZ8kdQmR1BjQvDNo1AtSavpRJNPIotH7

[5] https://www.facebook.com/Anna.Myroniuk.0