Analytical review of the week No. 138 of 07.11.2021.

Авторы публикации

ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT DOMESTIC, FOREIGN POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE WEEK

01.11.- 07.11.2021

CONTENT:

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

INTERNAL POLICY.

1. Personnel rotations in the government.

2. The secretary of the City Council Igor Terekhov won the early elections of the mayor of Kharkiv.

3. Protests of "anti-vaccinators" in Kiev.

4. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately signed the anti-oligarchic law.

5. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

FOREIGN POLICY.

1. Russia and Belarus signed 28 integration programs.

2. Summit of the G20 in Rome.

3. Climate Summit in Glasgow.

4. Statement by the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milly on the advent of a three-polar world.

ECONOMY.

1.Since the beginning of 2021, workers have transferred a record $ 10 billion to Ukraine.

2. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

3. Results of the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on November 3.

SUMMARY AND KEY TRENDS.

Summing up the results of the outgoing week, we note that:

First , in the domestic policy of the country, the general course continues to strengthen the influence of the Office of the President in the regions and to concentrate the executive power in its hands. As part of this trend, in order to establish more complete control of the OP over the work of the government and its main financial flows, personnel rotations took place in the Cabinet, affecting 1/3 of its composition. Also, part of the socio-economic failures of power will be attributed to the dismissed ministers.

Secondly , the Office of the President continues the trend of “tightening the screws” - the suppression of the main political and economic competitors. This week, V. Zelensky immediately signed an "anti-oligarchic" law, which will become a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team. Searches and investigation of criminal cases against figures and companies that will be linked with V. Klichko, P. Poroshenko, V. Medvedchuk, A. Avakov continued.

Thirdly , measures to combat coronavirus in Ukraine have been a failure. As a result, a significant part of society does not trust the authorities in countering the pandemic. Because of this, destructive "anti-vaccination" sentiments are spreading in the country. Trying to absolve themselves of responsibility for their dissemination, the authorities blame the “informational influence of the Russian Federation” for what is happening.

Fourth , a landmark event in international politics this week was the fact that the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Mark Milli, recognized that the world had become three-polar (with the United States, China and the Russian Federation as poles). Despite the fact that this statement is a statement of a long-known fact, its articulation by a high-ranking American military official means Washington's reconsideration of its role in the world and a virtual rejection of attempts to restore world hegemony; as well as additional financial requests from the Pentagon for a confrontation with two opponents.

Fifth , the trend towards deepening integration between Russia and Belarus continues. After last year's “Maidan” attempt in Minsk, it was only a matter of time before the Republic of Belarus entered the Russian sphere of influence more closely. This process is evidenced by the approval by V. Putin and A. Lukashenko of 28 economic integration programs and a special military program in the outgoing week. Although these programs do not directly relate not only to political integration, but also to the creation of a single currency and an emission center, which demonstrates the new tactics of the Russian Federation in relation to dependent partners.

Sixth , as part of the ongoing attempts of Western countries to launch a new format of globalization - ecoglobalization, in order to create conditions for the formation of universal rules of economic and political regulation, which entails additional threats to the conservation and deepening of the technological and socio-economic gap between developed countries and developing countries. ... At this week's G20 summit in Rome and the climate summit in Glasgow, Western states tried to force their partners to commit to reducing coal use and hydrocarbon emissions. It is indicative that only politically and economically weak states with limited subjectivity, states that expect to receive financial assistance to solve environmental problems, agreed to these obligations; while big emerging players like China, Russia and India have refused to stifle their economic development with draconian environmental restrictions. Moreover, almost all the climate commitments undertaken by the countries participating in the summits relate to the period of the 2030s-2050s, when other governments will be in power, which seriously reduces the practical value of such commitments.

Seventh , in terms of the role of labor migrants' remittances in the national economy, Ukraine is joining such countries as Kenya, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Egypt, India and China. Developed economies, on the other hand, lose billions of dollars that workers send to their families.

Eighth , the Ukrainian government is feverishly and chaotically reacting to the onset of a new reality in the energy sector of Europe. In an effort to prepare for the termination of the transit of Russian gas through its territory, it is preparing legislation to inject biomethane into the Ukrainian gas transportation system instead of Russian gas in the future. A multilevel struggle is taking place around the energy sector of Ukraine, where in parallel there is a conflict of interests between I. Kolomoisky and R. Akhmetov and a struggle between Russia and the EU, forcing the latter to launch Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible. Despite the ideological opposition, Ukraine requested an emergency supply of electricity from Belarus. In an emergency mode, Ukraine imports American coal by sea. Russia does not book the gas transmission system capacity of Ukraine and Poland for most of 2022, urging Europe to launch Nord Stream 2.

Ninth , a new round of total fiscalization is manifested in an attempt by the authorities to introduce so-called electronic cash registers. Five million hryvnia will be spent on integrating the tax system with the Diya portal - to exchange information about residents, licensing and entrepreneurs. 80 million will be spent on a database server to ensure the operation of information systems of the STS, etc. In total, this year, 150 million hryvnias will be spent on digitalization of taxes. In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers by its decree launched the creation of a territorial network of the Bureau of Economic Security.

INTERNAL POLICY.

Briefly :

In the domestic policy of the country, the general course continues to strengthen the influence of the Office of the President in the regions and to concentrate the executive power in its hands. As part of this trend, in order to establish more complete control of the OP over the work of the government and its main financial flows, personnel rotations took place in the Cabinet, affecting 1/3 of its composition. Also, part of the socio-economic failures of power will be attributed to the dismissed ministers.

The Office of the President continues to implement measures to suppress the main political and economic competitors. This week, V. Zelensky immediately signed an "anti-oligarchic" law, which will become a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team. Searches and investigation of criminal cases against figures and companies that will be linked with V. Klichko, P. Poroshenko, V. Medvedchuk, A. Avakov continued.

Measures to combat coronavirus in Ukraine proved to be a failure. As a result, a significant part of society does not trust the authorities in countering the pandemic. Because of this, destructive "anti-vaccination" sentiments are spreading in the country. Trying to absolve themselves of responsibility for their dissemination, the authorities blame the “informational influence of the Russian Federation” for what is happening.

1. Personnel rotations in the government.

On November 3, parliament appointed four new ministers: Alexei Reznikov as Minister of Defense, Irina Vereshchuk as head of the Ministry of Reintegration, Pavel Ryabikin as head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry, and Yulia Sviridenko as Minister of Economy.[1] .

In addition, the State Customs Service will be headed by Vyacheslav Demchenko, dismissed by the decree of President Volodymyr Zelensky from the post of head of the intelligence department of the State Border Service Administration.[2] .

The day before , Defense Minister Andrei Taran, Head of the Ministry of Strategic Industry Oleg Urusky, Head of the Ministry of Environment Roman Abramovsky and Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economy Alexei Lyubchenko were dismissed.

The main reason for the personnel changes in the government is, first of all, the desire to strengthen control by the President's Office over financial flows in the defense sector, in the tax and customs services and in other important areas. The second goal is to saturate the government with figures who can defend the interests of the authorities. The third goal is to ensure broader personal influence of people associated with the Office of the President on the processes in the government. This is what the current appointments and layoffs are connected with.

A. Reznikov (Minister of Defense) or Y. Sviridenko (First Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of Economy) are figures who are unconditionally trusted in the Office of the President. First of all, they will be able to effectively moderate financial flows. The same applies to P. Ryabikin ( Minister for Strategic Industries ).

Besides. A. Rneznikov as Minister of Defense - such a personnel decision may indicate that the state does not have a systematic policy towards Donbass. But the president and his team today need authoritative speakers who can publicly explain the position of the authorities and the policy of the authorities regarding the country's defense and regarding the reintegration of Donbass. A. Taran did not cope with the PR task and turned out to be an ineffective manager in terms of managing financial flows. A. Reznikov previously had nothing to do with defense and security issues, but he will be a completely manageable figure for the OP. A. Reznikov is at the same time a good speaker, manager and acts as a confidant of the president. He also has good connections with Western partners.

I. Vereshchuk did not receive the post of head of the Ministry of Defense because of fears that the military would not perceive her as a minister, and as a consolation "prize" she was offered the Ministry of Reintegration. I. Vereshchuk (Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration of the Occupied Territories) is, first of all, a PR appointment, a figure who can publicly and effectively justify state policy.

The change of the Minister for Strategic Industries was due to the fact that O. Urusky was a representative of the old elites and was initially a somewhat “alien” link, he had numerous conflicts within the system.

The new cycle of appointments may indicate that D. Shmygal will most likely remain in his post for the time being. The question of the resignation of the prime minister himself, especially against the background of A. Lyubchenko's departure, has been postponed at least until spring. A. Lyubchenko lost to D. Shmygal in the struggle for the post of prime minister and now he is suspected of corruption and not only him, but also representatives of his team are being removed. A few months ago, A. Lyubchenko was considered as the main candidate for prime minister.

The office of the president and directly A. Yermak are increasingly subjugating the government, which is losing the last signs of independence.

It also means that more and more responsibility falls on President V. Zelensky, since D. Shmygal has already stopped “absorbing” his anti-ratings. Now the failures of power can be partially attributed to the dismissed ministers.

2. The secretary of the City Council Igor Terekhov won the early elections of the mayor of Kharkiv.

On October 31, early elections of the new mayor of the city were held in Kharkiv. The total voter turnout was 28.29%. In fact, Kharkiv residents overwhelmingly ignored the elections. On the eve of the expression of will, a statement was made by the head of the Verkhovna Rada committee on the health of the nation M. Radutsky [3] that a certificate or COVID test can be checked at polling stations. It could affect the turnout of some voters.

According to the official election results, Igor Terekhov won in one round (50.66% of the votes). His main rival was Mikhail Dobkin (28.4%). He stated that he would dispute the results, which, in his opinion, were falsified.[4] . Due to the low turnout M. Dobkin was unable to mobilize the oppositional Kharkiv electorate.

I. Terekhov was actually a candidate from the government and the system. Despite the fact that the Office of the President did not openly support the acting mayor in the elections, there were behind-the-scenes agreements with him. A year ago, in the triangle Terekhov-Avakov-Office of the President, there was a separation of powers in Kharkiv and the region. Bankova hopes for the implementation of presidential projects in Kharkiv and support in the next presidential election.

Also on October 31, mid-term elections of people's deputies were held in majoritarian constituencies (No. 184 in the Kherson region and No. 197 in the Cherkasy region). Voter turnout was 21.39% in constituency No. 184 and 25.57% in constituency No. 197. The Central Election Commission determined the leaders based on preliminary voting results: the Servant of the People candidates win in both constituencies.

In constituency No. 197, according to the results of processing 50.35% of electronic protocols, the leader of the party "Servant of the People" Vitaly Voitsekhivsky (47.06%). In constituency number 184, the representative of the Servant of the People party Sergei Kozyr wins (64.58%) [5] .

As a result of the elections, both in Kharkiv and in constituencies no. 184 and no. 197, the control of the president's team at the regional level is being strengthened . At the same time, the extremely low turnout in the elections demonstrated the general distrust of citizens to the political system as a whole. The Servant of the People candidates for the by-election to the Verkhovna Rada are leading mainly due to agreements with local elites. Thus, both politicians who are winning today are only nominally representatives of the Servant of the People. In constituency # 197, the candidate simply took over the party's brand in the hopes of gaining broader funding from the authorities. And S. Kozyr received a significant percentage of support due to the fact that a few days before the elections, his competitor G. Laguta from the party "We Live Here" was appointed head of the Kherson Regional State Administration in exchange for the support of the pro-government candidate.

3. Protests of "anti-vaccinators" in Kiev.

On November 3, opponents of vaccination staged a protest in Kiev, which entered the "red" zone of adaptive quarantine on November 1. Anti-Vaccinators have blocked traffic on several streets in the Government Quarter. The main demands of the protesters: to declare the quarantine illegal and abolish all restrictions on unvaccinated citizens in the red zone[6] . From November 8, unvaccinated civil servants and workers for whom vaccinations against COVID-19 are compulsory will be suspended from work without pay.

The Ministry of Health called the rally "a mockery of doctors and families that have lost their relatives." This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Health Viktor Lyashko. The US Embassy in Ukraine says anti-vaccine protests are linked to Russian disinformation [7] .

Earlier that Russia is conducting a campaign to reduce vaccination in Ukraine[8] have already stated in the NSDC. But the main reason for mistrust in the issue of vaccination stems from the mistrust of the Ukrainian society in the actions of their authorities. In March 2021. The Verkhovna Rada adopted Law No. 5247, which removes liability from COVID-19 vaccine manufacturers for the consequences of vaccinations [9] . For the most part, it is the Ukrainian government that is to blame for the fact that a significant part of society does not want to be vaccinated. According to sociological research, about 43% of citizens oppose vaccination[10] .

In addition, the measures of the current government to combat the coronavirus were a failure in general.

The epidemiological situation in the country is getting worse. When 18-20% of the population is vaccinated, the average number of infected people per day reaches 27 thousand, and the number of deaths per day is about 700 people. In terms of mortality, Ukraine took second place in Europe. At the same time, oxygen deficiency arose in overcrowded hospitals in the country.

Against this background, it is very important for the authorities to show the society that someone else is to blame for the failures in the fight against the coronavirus - Russia, "anti-vaccination workers", or someone else.

4. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately signed the anti-oligarchic law.

This week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately signed the Verkhovna Rada's Law on Preventing Threats to National Security Associated with the Excessive Influence of Persons with Significant Economic and Political Weight in Public Life (oligarchs).[11] . On the eve of the second vote for the bill in parliament took place. This was due to the presence of mutually exclusive edits in the document (396, 398, 406). Earlier, ex-speaker Dmitry Razumkov said that the profile committee sent the law on oligarchs to the Verkhovna Rada apparatus not in the form in which it was voted in parliament. After that, Dmitry Razumkov said that if the current head of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk signs the law on oligarchs, this will become the basis for appealing it to the Constitutional Court.

The majority of the people's deputies at the plenary session on Wednesday, November 3, supported the elimination of inconsistencies. The bill No. 5599 in the second reading was considered according to a special procedure and only 13 amendments were introduced, approved by the relevant committee (on national security issues). All other amendments were considered automatically rejected. Ruslan Stefanchuk, when voting on amendment 406, did not name amendments 396 and 398 as automatically rejected. According to the 398th amendment, the head of the National Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (NAPK) makes the decision to recognize a person as an oligarch, after an appeal by a special commission.

Now, the amendments made to the law stipulate that the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC) will determine who is the oligarch. A proposal was also put to the vote to urgently transfer the document for signature to the head of parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk[12] .

As a result, the law on de-oligarchization was adopted and submitted to the president for signature as soon as possible, exactly in the required edition for the Banking edition.

The law on de-oligarchization continues the trend of “tightening the screws” - the suppression of the main political and economic competitors. In essence, it is a tool for intercepting financial flows, controlling the media and political parties by the OP team. Within the framework of the same trend, searches and investigations of criminal cases against figures and companies that will be associated with V. Klitschko continued this week.[13] , P. Poroshenko, V. Medvedchuk, A. Avakov.

5. Sociology. Presidential and parliamentary ratings.

This week, a new case study by the Rating group was published[14] , according to which the rating of trust in politicians is headed by Vladimir Zelensky, 39% of respondents trust him, 59% do not trust him; balance: (-20%). Since September, the balance of confidence in the president has lost 22%.

V. Zelensky continues to lead in the presidential rating - 25.1% of respondents. In comparison with the poll published in September (31%) , the president's rating has lost 6%.

The leader in the parliamentary rating is:

"Servant of the people" - 20.4%. In comparison with the poll conducted by the Rating group in September 2021 (25.8%), the party's rating decreased by 5.4%.

This is followed by:

• “European Solidarity” - 15.8% (+ 1.7%).

• “Opposition Platform - For Life” - 12% - has not changed significantly.

• "Batkivshchyna" - 10.6% - has not changed significantly.

With regard to vaccination against coronavirus, the society is divided into: 43% - those who do not support vaccination and 54% of those who support or have already been vaccinated. Since April, the number of supporters of strict quarantine has decreased: 44% are against (+ 11%) and 54% are for (-9%). In April it was 33% against and 65% in favor, respectively.

Most of the respondents believe that prices for utilities in Ukraine should not grow due to the rise in gas prices in Europe - 59%.

The results of a survey by the Rating group also confirm that as a result of offshore scandals, a trend has been formed for a decrease in the ratings of the power team: in 1.5 months (-6%) for the president and (-5.4%) for the ruling party. In addition, we see a significant decrease in the rating of trust in the president. For 1.5 months, the balance of trust in the president decreased by 22%. Back in September, according to the "Rating" group [15] , the level of confidence in the president was 50% (against 48% of distrust) and, accordingly, the positive balance was at the level (+ 2%).

FOREIGN POLICY.

Briefly.

A landmark event in international politics this week was the fact that the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, Mark Milli, admitted that the world has become three-polar (with the United States, China and the Russian Federation as poles). Despite the fact that this statement is a statement of a long-known fact, its articulation by a high-ranking American military official means Washington's reconsideration of its role in the world and the actual abandonment of attempts to restore world hegemony; as well as additional financial requests from the Pentagon for a confrontation with two opponents.

The trend towards deepening integration between Russia and Belarus also continues. After last year's “Maidan” attempt in Minsk, it was only a matter of time before the Republic of Belarus entered the Russian sphere of influence more closely. This process is evidenced by the approval by V. Putin and A. Lukashenko of 28 economic integration programs and a special military program in the outgoing week. Although these programs do not directly relate not only to political integration, but also to the creation of a single currency and an emission center, which demonstrates the new tactics of the Russian Federation in relation to dependent partners.

As part of the ongoing attempts by Western countries to launch a new format of globalization - ecoglobalization, in order to create conditions for the formation of universal rules of economic and political regulation, which entails additional threats to the conservation and deepening of the technological and socio-economic gap between developed countries and developing countries. At this week's G20 summit in Rome and the climate summit in Glasgow, Western states tried to force their partners to commit to reducing coal use and hydrocarbon emissions. It is significant that only politically and economically weak states with limited subjectivity, states that expect to receive financial assistance to solve environmental problems, agreed to these obligations; while big emerging players like China, Russia and India have refused to stifle their economic development with draconian environmental restrictions. Moreover, almost all the climate commitments undertaken by the countries participating in the summits relate to the period of the 2030s-2050s, when other governments will be in power, which seriously reduces the practical value of such commitments.

1. Russia and Belarus signed 28 integration programs.

On November 4, the State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus was held[16] . The body includes presidents, prime ministers and heads of the chambers of parliaments of both countries.

Over the past years, Putin and Lukashenko have met many times to agree on roadmaps. They managed to come to a consensus only in September. Then 28 integration programs were agreed upon, which the leaders finally approved this week.

Integration programs provide that by December 1, 2023, Russia and Belarus will sign an agreement on a single gas market. How exactly it will work should be known as early as next summer. In the meantime, it has been fixed that the gas price for Belarus until 2022 will remain at the same level - $ 128.5 per thousand cubic meters without inflation indexation. This is 7-8 times lower than gas is currently on the spot market in Europe.

In the near future, the market for oil and oil products, as well as electricity will be united. Both of these points will be enshrined in international treaties.

It is possible that after that Ukraine will no longer be able to purchase Russian gasoline through Belarusian companies. As for electricity, Belarus and Russia have already refused to sell it to Kiev, which can be called the first indirect consequences of strengthening integration within the Union State.

Many of the approved programs are dedicated to trade: harmonization of customs legislation, integration of labeling systems, general veterinary and phytosanitary control, a unified agricultural policy, unified rules for access to government orders.

That is, Belarusian companies will be able to apply for participation in tenders - from road repairs to the supply of food products to schools in the Russian Federation. The Russian state order is huge, and this, on the one hand, will give the Belarusian economy a serious impetus for growth. On the other hand, it will increase Russia's influence on it (just as the American government controls private corporations through defense orders).

All of the above boils down to the elimination of trade and tax barriers between Belarus and Russia. Today, there is no shortage of Belarusian food on Russian shelves. But these cheeses and other milk, meat and sausages are significantly more expensive than local products. This is because Belarusian manufacturers spend a lot of money to enter the Russian market. In the absence of barriers, duties and controls, "Made in Belarus" products will become much more competitive in Russia. This will be facilitated by the integration of payment systems, payment cards and fast payments, the unification of accounting, the formation of a unified agricultural policy and unified rules for protecting consumer rights.

As part of the signing of 28 programs, the presidents also approved a common macroeconomic policy. However, the single currency will not be introduced yet.

Another important point is the adoption of a common military doctrine of the Union State. No details have been provided yet, but Lukashenka repeated several times that the southwestern border is now "reliably protected."

It follows from the above that, as we predicted, last year's attempt to organize a “color revolution” in Belarus led to its more solid inclusion in the Russian sphere of influence. In the future, one should expect the deepening of integration processes within the framework of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, both in the economic and in the military-political spheres.

2. Summit of the G20 in Rome.

One of the main news this week was the G20 summit held in Rome last weekend.

Initially, the topics for discussion were the situation in Afghanistan, the gas crisis in Europe, the coronavirus pandemic, and climate change.[17] . As a result, only climate issues were discussed in detail from this set.

The G20 summit ended with the signing of a declaration stating that the leaders of the world's most developed economies have agreed to fight global warming, the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, illegal migration and other challenges.

The issues of global warming at the summit became central - with the full agreement of all participants. At the same time, in the "climatic" part of the meeting, the world's leading economies managed to achieve little.

Thus, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that the summit did not justify his hopes.

"While I welcome the G20's commitment to global solutions, I am leaving Rome with unfulfilled hopes, but at least they are not buried," he tweeted.

Although Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said that it was not easy to reach agreement in the G20, there is a result. All participants recognized the scientific approach to the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate, that is, the need to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The final communique of the G20 indicates the readiness of the countries at the national level to move to carbon neutrality in the energy sector by the "middle of the century". The European Union, which is determined to become "neutral" in 2050, does not support China and Russia on this issue, which set themselves the goal of such changes in 2060, and India, which has not yet named a deadline.[18] .

The time frame set by different states to achieve "carbon neutrality" is directly proportional to their ability to pursue sovereign policies. The fact is that the project of "combating climate change" so actively promoted by the Western liberal elites is nothing more than a way to slow down the development of the economies of all "non-Western states", and first of all, the countries of the Third World.

The goal of the American initiators of the “fight against global warming” strategy is to preserve the state in which the West, within the framework of the international division of labor, will remain an industrially and technologically developed center, and all other regions will “freeze” in the role of a raw material and agrarian periphery.

China and Russia, pursuing a sovereign foreign policy, in these conditions postpone "carbon neutrality" for the most distant period in order to leave themselves the opportunity to develop without problems for several more decades. And, in the end, no one knows what the world will face in 2060.

Another topic of the past G20 summit was the attempts of states to "stall" transnational corporations. As expected, the leaders of the twenty largest economies in the world have approved an international agreement, according to which the profits of large businesses will be taxed at least 15 percent.

Thus, the G20 countries want to ensure that multinational companies pay more taxes, rather than evade them by declaring profits offshore.

The pact on a minimum 15 percent tax was agreed upon by all the leaders who took part in the G20 summit in Rome. They account for 60 percent of the world's population and 80 percent of world GDP.

The tax innovation, originally proposed by the US, is expected to take effect by 2023. True, China and Russia did not support him.

Officially, as the purpose of this agreement, it is declared profit from the collection of taxes from transnational corporations. But in reality, everything is much more interesting.

The Tax Initiative is designed to make multinational digital technology corporations (such as Google, Facebook, and others) tax residents of the countries in which they operate. This, in turn, will make it possible not only to collect taxes from them, but also to conduct inspections, implement administrative and forceful pressure, and oblige to place data storage servers in certain countries.

The need to "rein in" digital people in this way, Western governments came after they realized the colossal role that these companies play in shaping public opinion. This happened after the last presidential elections in the United States. As a result, now we see the offensive of the traditional Western financial and political elites on digital specialists on all fronts.

A couple of weeks ago, we wrote about a massive Facebook harassment campaign launched by the top of the US Democratic Party. Now digitalists (and with them other TNCs whose activities are in a more tangible sphere) are being driven into the tax jurisdictions of Western countries.

All this, in our opinion, testifies to the fact that the predictions of certain colleagues, who asserted that the world was entering the era of domination of “digital transnationals”, turned out to be, to put it mildly, an exaggeration.

3. Climate Summit in Glasgow.

Immediately after the G20 summit, world leaders traveled to Britain, to the city of Glasgow, where the climate summit was held[19] .

It passed a resolution: more than 40 countries agreed to abandon the use of coal energy - the dirtiest fuel source according to environmentalists - in order to limit the temperature rise on the planet to 1.5 ° C. However, expert assessments have shown that in order for the world to stay within 1.5 ° C, developed countries must gradually phase out coal by 2030, and not in the 2030s, as noted in the agreement adopted on Wednesday night.

Major coal-using countries, including Canada, Poland, Ukraine and Vietnam, will gradually phase out using coal for power generation, with larger economies doing so in the 2030s and smaller economies in the 2040s. However, some of the world's largest economies that depend on coal, including Australia, China, India and the United States, have not accepted the terms of the agreement. In addition, experts and some of the summit participants told the British publication the Guardian that the deadlines for the cessation of coal production, which the countries have pledged to comply, are "too late."[20] .

We draw your attention to the fact that Ukraine is also on the list of countries that have committed themselves to abandon coal. Everything is quite natural here. A country that does not have foreign policy subjectivity and is dependent on IMF loans simply cannot afford to contradict the agenda of Western "environmentalists" who intend to drive it into a pre-industrial state. But, on the other hand, it remains unclear where Ukraine will receive electricity after 2030.

Over the past 8 years, it has already turned from an exporter of electricity to its importer, and efficient and cheap nuclear generation from the country has been limited to please the interests of one of the representatives of large capital, which owns coal-fired power plants.

However, let's return to the results of the environmental summit in Glasgow. The most ardent Green Deal lobbyists call them unsatisfactory.

Under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, countries have pledged to limit global temperature increases to "well below" 2 ° C. According to the International Energy Agency, the use of coal is one of the main causes of greenhouse gas emissions, and the use of polluting fuels has recovered from temporary emission reductions that occurred during the restrictive measures during the pandemic. The data, which came to the disposal of the British publication, showed that fossil fuel companies used the energy charter agreement to sue governments for losses they incur in connection with national decarbonization obligations.

In general, liberal environmentalists expected from this summit draconian measures to restrict the use of coal, and indeed the entire industry, which in their inflamed minds appears as a worldwide evil. But instead, they received a rather diluted commitment that, moreover, some of the world's largest economies refused to subscribe to.

For Ukraine, the Glasgow summit was also interesting because on its sidelines, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy tried to PR as best he could, “catching” world leaders and taking pictures with them. His most coveted "catch" was a short meeting with US President Joe Biden.

The fact that Zelenskiy discussed the conflict in the east of his country with the President of the United States, he tweeted on Monday evening. Then world leaders gathered for a royal reception at the Glasgow Art Gallery[21] .

At that moment, Zelensky took his chance: as the Daily Mail writes, he was able to literally corner the US president. His meeting with the American president was not on Biden's public schedule, and officials did not publish the content of the conversation between the head of the White House and Zelensky.

The latter wrote the following about the conversation, a quote: "During a conversation with the US President in Glasgow, the security situation in Donbass was discussed. The United States continues to support territorial integrity and reforms in Ukraine." And he attached a photo of the "meeting" with the American president.

The fact that Zelensky's meetings with world leaders were spontaneous and not very long, in fact, was confirmed by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.

"It all happened in a very lively, dynamic mode. You go into the hall - you bump into the President of the European Council. We sat down, talked. Here - once - the German Chancellor sits, they also sat down, talked. Or you sit and the Secretary General approaches NATO," - described how the meetings of Zelensky Kuleb took place.

The above once again emphasizes that for the Office of the President of Ukraine, the most important thing in contacts with leaders of foreign states is not their content, but the very fact of such contacts, which can be presented to the public in the form of "stormy diplomatic activity."

4. Statement by the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milly on the advent of a three-polar world.

On November 3, the head of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milli, announced that the world is now becoming three-polar. The US, Russia and China are the new centers of power[22] .

The Pentagon spokesman said this during the Aspen Institute's security forum.

"We are entering a three-polar world with China and Russia as great powers. All are great powers," said Milli.

He added that strategically, the world has become less stable compared to what it was in the past 40-50 years. Therefore, the maintenance of peace between the great powers will be of increased importance.

Russia, China, the United States and other countries should be very careful about how they act with each other, the American general said.

He also said that the authorities of other countries should not consider the United States weak because of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. According to him, the United States is often underestimated and misunderstood. And it is wrong to perceive the completion of the operation as an escape.

Actually, this statement by Milli is just a statement of a long-known fact: the world is already multipolar. But it is extremely remarkable that the elimination of total American hegemony and the emergence of two new poles was recognized by the head of the entire American army. Just a few years ago, such a statement from such a high-ranking US military official would have been impossible. Now, they have become reality.

And no matter how hard Millie tried to put a good face on a bad game, after the chaotic withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, it became obvious to the whole world that the United States was weakening. Of course, this does not mean that America will sink to the level of third world countries in terms of its influence. For the foreseeable future, the United States will remain one of the three great powers that determine world politics. However, their sphere of influence will gradually narrow. And Afghanistan was only the “first sign” of this trend.

But, as you know, a holy place is never empty. In countries and regions from which the Americans leave, other players will increase their influence. First of all - Russia and China, but not only them. Turkey has recently shown an example of how a relatively small state can gain significant influence on political processes in the whole region. Probably, in the foreseeable future, we will see how a number of other countries resort to similar tactics.

ECONOMY

Briefly:

In terms of the role of labor migrants' remittances for the national economy, Ukraine is joining such countries as Kenya, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Egypt, India and China. Developed economies, on the other hand, lose billions of dollars that workers send to their families.

The Ukrainian authorities are feverishly and chaotically reacting to the onset of a new reality in the energy sector of Europe. In an effort to prepare for the termination of the transit of Russian gas through its territory, it is preparing legislation to inject biomethane into the Ukrainian gas transportation system instead of Russian gas in the future. A multilevel struggle is taking place around the energy sector of Ukraine, where, in parallel, there is a conflict of interests between I. Kolomoisky and R. Akhmetov and a struggle between Russia and the EU, forcing the latter to launch Nord Stream 2 as soon as possible. Despite the ideological opposition, Ukraine requested an emergency supply of electricity from Belarus. In an emergency mode, Ukraine imports American coal by sea. Russia does not book the gas transmission system capacity of Ukraine and Poland for most of 2022, urging Europe to launch Nord Stream 2.

A new round of total fiscalization is manifested in the authorities' attempt to introduce the so-called electronic cash registers. Five million hryvnias will be spent on integrating the tax system with the Diya portal - to exchange information about residents, licensing and entrepreneurs. 80 million will be spent on a database server to ensure the operation of information systems of the STS, etc. In total, this year, 150 million hryvnias will be spent on digitalization of taxes. In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers by its decree launched the creation of a territorial network of the Bureau of Economic Security.

1.Since the beginning of 2021, workers have transferred a record $ 10 billion to Ukraine.

On November 1, the publication "Ukrrudprom" with reference to the statistics of the NBU published material that labor migrants have transferred to Ukraine from the beginning of the year more than 10 billion dollars (from January to the end of October 2021)[23] . The volume of private money transfers to Ukraine in January-September 2021 amounted to $ 10.33 billion, an increase of 19.2% compared to the same period last year. According to statistics from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), including for September, the amount of remittances amounted to $ 1.26 billion, which is 23% more than in September 2020. In particular, in the first nine months of this year, Ukraine received $ 5.9 billion through official channels, which is $ 618 million more than in the same period last year. Through unofficial channels, $ 4.3 billion has been transferred to Ukraine since the beginning of the year. As reported earlier, the National Bank predicted in 2021 an increase in the volume of remittances from labor migrants to Ukraine to $ 13.3 billion. Recall that in 2020 the volume of remittances increased to a record $ 12.1 billion, which is 1.7% or $ 0.2 billion more than in 2019. According to the NBU, in 2019 the volume of remittances of labor migrants to Ukraine amounted to $ 12.02 billion, which is 8.2%, or $ 906 million more than in 2018.

By comparison, the UK loses about £ 8 billion annually, which local migrant workers donate to their home countries.[24] . That is, the UK is in a directly opposite situation to Ukraine in terms of the cash flow of migrant workers. Globally, other countries that also receive significant amounts of transfers from workers are Poland, China, Kenya, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Ghana, as well as a number of Latin American countries. The world's top 5 recipients of remittances are India, China, Mexico, the Philippines and Egypt[25] . The top 3 countries that allow workers to earn money are the United States, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

2. The situation in the energy sector of Ukraine.

On October 21, the Rada voted for the bill # 5464 for the development of the biogas market. The use of the biomethane register will allow the export of the produced gas. Biogas in Ukraine is produced at 51 biogas plants with a total capacity of 97 MW. The total gross biogas production in 2019 is estimated at about 100 million nm3 / year, and only 34% of the energy potential of this biogas is converted into useful electrical (156 GWh) and thermal (128 TJ) energy.

On October 30, on his Telegram channel, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Utilities Services, Andrei Gerus , said that from November 1 there would be no electricity imports from Russia and Belarus, since the corresponding auctions had not been held[26] . This situation is a conflict of interests of I. Kolomoisky and R. Akhmetov as a consumer and producer of electricity, respectively. Also on October 30, First Deputy Energy Minister Yuriy Vlasenko announced the diversification of coal supplies to Ukraine at the expense of Poland, Kazakhstan, the Republic of South Africa, and the United States.[27] .

Already on November 2, the system operator Ukrenergo requested emergency assistance from Belarus for the supply of 500 MW electricity to maintain the energy system of Ukraine, the Ministry of Energy of Belarus reports.[28] . The Ministry of Energy of Belarus is not considering new long-term commercial contracts with Ukraine. According to the information on the Ukrenergo website , as of 18:12 Kyiv time, the operator did not import electricity from Belarus. Business Censor also reported that the TET Group of Vitaly Butenko, a former trader from the DTEK group of Rinat Akhmetov, agreed with Belarus on the purchase of electricity from November 5. The publication writes that TET Group will buy out the corresponding capacity at daily auctions of Ukrenergo. Since November 1, Russia has suspended supplies of thermal coal to Ukraine [29] .

On November 2, the Interfax-Ukraine agency, citing its source in the government, reported that 5 ships are going to Ukraine with about 280 thousand tons of coal from the United States.[30] . "Five ships are sailing: four for DTEK and one for the state-owned Centrenergo. Centrenergo expects to receive 72 thousand tons of coal by November 14, and then by November 25 - another 66 thousand tons. The state company received funds to purchase this coal due to a large contract for the sale of electricity to NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine.

November 2, according to the Hungarian RBP platform[31] , it became known that the Russian "Gazprom" did not begin to book additional gas transit capacities through Ukraine and Poland from the first to the third quarter of 2022[32] . Against this background, the price of gas in Europe increased by almost 9%. At its peak for the day, the cost of December futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands was $ 854 per 1,000 cubic meters. m, according to the data of the ICE exchange.

On November 2, the Verkhovna Rada adopted the bill №2553 [33] . It transfers all gas consumers in Ukraine to the European metering system: instead of cubic meters - kilowatt-hours (kWh). The new rules should be operational from May 2022. Until that time, gas metering will be carried out according to the "old", currently operating methodology, created in the days of the Soviet Union. As soon as the new rules come into effect, the cost of gas for the end consumer could rise by 20%.

On November 4, the same A. Gerus said on his Telegram channel that the Russian Federation had stopped the transit of coal from Kazakhstan to Ukraine[34] . A. Gerus is an interested person, so his statements should be double-checked.

3. Results of the meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers on November 3.

The government passed an important decree regarding utility tariffs[35] . According to him, the social standard for heating in hryvnia per square meter is abolished (it is applied when calculating subsidies). Now they will take into account the standard in gigacalories. Consumers without meters are in a better position.

The Cabinet of Ministers adopted a resolution that outlines the procedure for using funds for digital transformation in the field of tax policy. The money will be spent on the development and modernization of software, which will allow the introduction of the so-called e-taxes and the information system "Transparent Trade" or e-PPO. In particular, 9 million hryvnia will go to ensure the operation of electronic cabinets, 5 million - to create remote jobs for tax officials conducting field inspections. Five million hryvnias will be spent on integrating the tax system with the Diya portal - to exchange information about residents, licensing and entrepreneurs. Another 14.5 million will be needed for online registration of individuals in the State Register of Tax Payers. and "One stop shop for electronic reporting". The development of software for saving electronic documents will cost UAH 20 million. Another 80 million will be spent on a database server to ensure the operation of information systems of the STS, etc. In total, this year, 150 million hryvnias will be spent on digitalization of taxes.

The Cabinet of Ministers by its decree launched the creation of a territorial network of the Bureau of Economic Security. As indicated in the explanatory note, it is necessary to accelerate the start of the work of the BEB in the field, therefore, it became necessary to create a regional network. In total, 23 subdivisions will be created - in Kiev and the region, each regional center (in Donetsk and Luhansk regions - one subdivision). The Kherson subdivision will also oversee the Crimea. The regional network will be created with the money allocated for the BEB in the budget - this year more than 587 million, the next - about 621.6 million.

The Cabinet of Ministers postponed the new technical regulations on liquefied gas until November 5, 2022. The reason: a considerable part of the Russian liquefied gas, on which our market depends, does not fit into the new Technical Regulations.

Edited by:

Ruslan Bortnik,

Daniil Bogatyrev.

Authors:

Daniil Bogatyrev,

Oksana Krasovskaya,

Andrey Timchenko.

[1] https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/kadrovye-perestanovki-kabmine-zanyat-vakantnye-1635942795.html

[2] https://hromadske.ua/ru/posts/pravitelstvo-naznachilo-eks-rukovoditelya-pogranichnoj-razvedki-glavoj-gosudarstvennoj-tamozhennoj-sluzhby

[3] https://hromadske.ua/ru/posts/raduckij-dopustil-proverku-covid-dokumentov-na-vyborah-v-harkove-v-opore-vidyat-sryv-izbiratelnogo-processa

[4] https://zn.ua/POLITICS/rezultat-vyborov-mera-kharkova-trebuet-tshchatelnoj-proverki-chestno.html

[5] https://www.unn.com.ua/ru/news/1950490-promizhni-vibori-na-cherkaschini-ta-khersonschini-u-tsvk-nazvali-poperedni-rezultati