Авторы публикации
Friends, I decided to bring some clarity on the situation around the "peace talks" between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and the "strangeness" (at first glance) of the behavior of the parties.
1. Both sides continue to raise the stakes in the remote negotiation process, taking an increasingly uncompromising stance on political negotiations, but using different strategies.
2. The President of Ukraine and his team probably believe that the root of all problems (the reason for the Russian invasion) or the way to solve them is V. Putin PERSONALLY. Therefore, the strategy of Ukraine in recent months is aimed at “de-legitimizing Putin”, “cutting him out” from the political negotiation process in order to increase pressure on the Russian president, create a crisis within the Russian elites, satisfy the request of the patriotic part of Ukrainian society, justify the absence of attempts to achieve peace for third countries. Therefore, we see the Decrees of the President of Ukraine "on the impossibility" of negotiations personally with Putin, and the maximum "personalization of evil" in the public space. "The war will end when there is no Putin." At the same time, negotiations on gas or grain are considered to be technical, and in the interests of the Western allies; not a political issue for Ukraine. Ukraine's allies and their acceptance or not of this approach will play an important role in the effectiveness of this strategy.
3. The Russian Federation believes that Ukraine is politically “controlled by the West” and is trying to make it and the United States, Great Britain and allies responsible for the CONTINUING of the war. Due this strategy, Russian officials constantly declare their alleged “readiness for negotiations” and the to the end of the war, but put forward conditions for their conduct that are unacceptable for Ukraine (for example, recognition of the Russian status of the occupied territories of Ukraine). All this is being done both for third countries (PRC, India, Turkey, South Africa and others), and for political opposition inside of western partners of Ukraine; for internal Russian public opinion (this is the answer to the question - why the war continues). "We can end the war if Ukraine and the West accept the terms of our ultimatum." And negotiations on grain or gas are considered to be a “marker of the SWO”, and not a full-fledged war; arrangements in the national interest. An important role in the effectiveness of this strategy will be played by the factors of the position of third countries and the internal stability of Ukraine's Western allies.
4. Both strategies are dangerous and fragile, meaning key fights are not come yet.
Ruslan Bortnik
